Kevin O'Brien

Estevez ranks near the bottom, unsurprisingly. Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Noah Cameron rank at or near the bottom quintiles, but they're starters more known for their command rather than their stuff. Furthermore, the lack of premium TJ Stuff+ marks hasn't hurt their effectiveness. They have ERA marks of 1.00, 1.48, and 3.94, respectively. The bullpen has produced strong TJ Stuff+ marks despite poor results. The Royals have nine pitchers (seven relievers) who had TJ Stuff+ marks of 100 or higher. That includes Steven Cruz (109), Nick Mears (104), Luinder Avila (103), Lucas Erceg (103), Alex Lange (102), Bailey Falter (101), and Matt Strahm (100). The only relievers under that century TJ Stuff+ mark are Eli Morgan (99) and John Schreiber (98). Thus, the Royals have guys who can bring it. I talked about that in a recent Twitter post reviewing the bullpen's poor performance on Thursday in the walkoff loss to the Tigers. Yes, the results were bad, but the stuff was surprisingly good from the three Kansas City relievers (Erceg, Mears, and Schreiber) who struggled in Detroit. The Royals' bullpen definitely has a chase problem. They rank last in the league in reliever chase rate at 28.2%. Kansas City's relievers have to be better, especially with Estevez returning to full strength. Are the chase issues pitch-calling related? Command related? Control related? Or a whole different issue? Regardless, the bullpen has plenty of arms who have solid arsenals that could produce a lot of strikes, both of the swinging and looking variety. Hence, fans should focus more on the TJ Stuff+ and how it could produce better outcomes down the road for these Royals pitchers rather than worry about this rough stretch of baseball, where the Kansas City relievers have looked downright terrible (which is saying something from a Royals fan). View full article

When it comes to bat speed, Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen rank at the top of the list for the Royals with average bat speeds of 76 MPH and 74.8 MPH, respectively. That said, the bat speed has produced mixed results for both. Jac and Carter have squared-up rates of 31.7% and 25%, and batter-run values of -3.4 and -1.3. At the bottom of the list is Pasquantino, who has an average bat speed of 69.3 MPH this season. His squared-up rate is decent at 30.2%. However, -8.7 batter-run value is the worst mark of Royals hitters so far this year. The bat speed in 2026 is atypical for Vinnie. In 2024, his average bat speed was 71.7 MPH. Last year, it was 72.5 MPH. Thus, he's seen a 3.2 MPH decrease this year, and the drop has been very uncharacteristic of his hitting profile, as illustrated by his rolling bat speed chart below, via Savant. Pasquantino did have an increase in bat speed from 2024 to 2025, with the biggest gains being at the start of the season. That said, the increase in bat speed seemed to have counterintuitive results, as illustrated in his sub-50 wRC+ in the first month of play. Vinnie's bat speed and pull-heavy approach, which were a detriment at the beginning of the year, were discussed in a 2025 Pitcher List piece by Nate Schwartz. Here's a quote that talked about those bat-speed and pull issues and how he turned things around when he became more "natural" in his hitting approach. After a massive spike in bat speed at the beginning of the year, Vinnie settled in, and his bat speed produced similar MPH trends to what he did in 2024. As a result of this stabilization in bat speed, Pasquantino hit 32 home runs and posted a .798 OPS in 682 plate appearances, his best season yet at the MLB level. So far this year, it's not a spike in bat speed that's plaguing his hitting at the plate. Rather, it's a massive decline in bat speed. According to his rolling bat speed chart, his average bat speed has hovered below league average for most of the season thus far, sans a small stretch in his first 20 competitive swings of the year. While the squared-up rate hasn't been too strongly affected, the hard-hit rate has been a different story. In 77 plate appearances, Pasquantino is producing a 33.3% hard-hit rate. That ranks him in the 14th percentile this year. Furthermore, when looking at his rolling hard-hit% chart on Savant, Vinnie has had some spikes in hard-hit rate. However, he's had considerable stretches where he's hovering between the 25-30% mark, as illustrated below. For context, let's look at Pasquantino's rolling hard-hit% over his career and see what kind of peaks and valleys he's sported since debuting with the Royals in 2022. Pasquantino has had some considerable drops in hard-hit rate before, so this isn't as dramatically new as the drop in bat speed. From the end of 2023 to the start of 2024, he had a hard-hit rate that hovered between the 20th and 30th percentiles for a 100 batted-ball stretch. That said, he was coming off an injury-shortened season in 2023, so the hard-hit rate struggles in 2024 were probably linked closely to that. Without a major injury in 2025 or this spring, what's the excuse for the drop in hard-hit rate as well as bat speed this time around? What Causes a Decrease In Bat Speed? To get a better sense of what causes declines in bat speed, I decided to do what any curious millennial baseball fan with a laptop computer would do: I Googled it. This is the answer that I got when I asked Google, "What contributes to a decline in bat speed in baseball?" When looking at Google's solutions, I felt two of the suggestions could be easily eliminated: Improper equipment and physical factors. Regarding improper equipment, I guess we don't know for sure, but I don't believe Vinnie has started using a different size or type of bat. When it comes to physical factors, we're only 18 games into the 2026 season. If he's tired and fatigued now, I would have serious concerns about his conditioning and, honestly, general health. Thus, there could be three issues contributing to Pasquantino's decline in bat speed: mechanical factors, external conditions, and/or mental approach. In terms of the mechanics, I did take two clips of Vinnie's for comparison: one on a ground out from this year and one on a field out from last year, both coming on pitches thrown low and away. Vinnie-2025 and 2026.mp4 Both pitches are balls with movement, but there definitely seems to be less balance, and the sequencing seems a lot more off in his 2026 swing than his 2025 one. It's a small sample of swings, but it shows that there could be something mechanical going on with Vinnie's hands and torso that's preventing him from maximizing his bat speed. In terms of the external factors, the Royals have played some cold-weather games in cold-weather cities to begin the year, with trips to Cleveland and Detroit being the primary ones. It was a bit of the same story last year with similar trips, so the struggles could be related to Vinnie's body not feeling fully loose in such frigid climates (though that wouldn't explain his stronger starts in 2023 and 2024). Regarding pitch location, Vinnie has been challenged, but his results chart shows he's getting pitches thrown in hittable areas of the zone. He's just not doing anything with them, as illustrated below in his pitch result chart via Savant. Thus, that leaves the last factor: mental. Honestly, I do think that so much of what is ailing Vinnie at the plate. He's a reflective player who is constantly thinking about the game and his approach. However, sometimes in sports, especially in baseball, it can be "paralysis by analysis". That feels like the case with Pasquantino through 18 games. He's thinking too much, maybe focusing on what he should be looking for and what he should be avoiding, and it's messing with his approach. When looking at his TJ Stats Statcast summary from a year ago, the plate discipline and approach numbers aren't all that different. Rather, the big difference for Pasquantino from 2025 and this season is his batted-ball profile and strikeout rate. We know about the declines in exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and LA Sweet-Spot%. However, his K% in 2025 was 15.8%, which ranked in the 87th percentile. His K% this year? It's 23.3%, which ranks in the 40th percentile. That's a 47-spot drop and a 7.5% increase in strikeouts. For a hitter who is known for his contact ability, the increase in strikeouts is concerning. It may not be due to his actual skills, but rather his mental approach, as he seems to be pressing in two-strike counts. His win probability numbers show that problem as well. Through 18 games, he has -0.82 WPA, -0.60 WPA/LI, and -0.12 clutch. Being negative in those categories shows that Vinnie is struggling in key spots. With the skills, especially plate discipline, not being as different from his 2025 metrics, it may be what's going on in between the ears (i.e., confidence) that's contributing to his bat speed, rather than a physical or mechanical ailment. What to Think About Vinnie Going Forward? To be honest, I am concerned about Vinnie. A slow start from him isn't surprising, and he bounced back fine from a slow start in 2025. That said, he's a year older. He doesn't exactly have a frame that ages well. And while he is a leader in the clubhouse, I could also see being a player who puts a lot of pressure on himself, especially if he's not performing. I think Pasquantino will get to a better form sometime soon. The batted-ball metrics will follow with an increase in bat speed, which I think will happen sooner rather than later, especially once Pasquantino gets on a hitting streak. It seemed like Vinnie took a step in the right direction in Wednesday's loss, with a triple that he launched 100 MPH with a bat speed of 82.5 MPH. His last swing of Wednesday's game showed what Vinnie is capable of when things are clicking at the plate for him: good exit velocity, good launch angle, good bat speed, and some extra bases to show for it. The main question is now this: Can he string these kinds of swings together on a regular basis, especially in regard to bat speed? That is a tough question, especially since we don't have any idea of what his mindset is right now, with him mired in this slump. According to Fangraphs, ZiPS is projecting Vinnie to hit 22 home runs and post a 108 wRC+ in 495 remaining plate appearances. While that would be down from his 32-HR mark in 2025, it would be welcomed by Royals fans, especially considering the offense's struggles as a team. Pasquantino has the ability to reach that ZiPS ROS projection. However, he needs to start showing results sooner rather than later. A home run in the series finale against Detroit would help Royals fans feel encouraged about Vinnie's outlook for the remainder of the season. View full article

Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-Imagn Images The Royals' starting pitching has been a strength of the team this season, despite their 7-9 record (entering Tuesday's game against Detroit). According to Fangraphs, the Kansas City rotation ranks 4th in ERA, 7th in WHIP, and 11th in fWAR. That stellar starting pitching is a big reason the Royals have been able to somewhat overcome their mediocre offense (and "mediocre" is putting it nicely). Here's how the Royals' starting pitchers have broken down this year individually, as of April 14th. Seth Lugo and Kris Bubic have gotten off to excellent starts this year, as evidenced by their 1.53 and 2.50 ERA marks, respectively. However, Michael Wacha has clearly been Kansas City's best starting pitcher through his first three starts of the 2026 season. In 21 IP, which leads all Royals starters, Wacha has a 0.43 ERA, a 7.3 K/9, and 3.05 FIP. He has also produced excellent marks in many of his Statcast categories this season, including wOBA, whiff%, CSW%, and O-Swing%. A full breakdown of his Statcast percentile rankings so far this season is below, via TJ Stats. Wacha's wOBA ranks in the 94th percentile, his BB% ranks in the 71st percentile, his whiff% ranks in the 82nd percentile, his CSW% ranks in the 96th percentile, and his O-Swing% ranks in the 86th percentile. Wacha is producing these solid metrics despite ranking in the 35th percentile in fastball velocity and 11th percentile in TJ Stuff+. That shows the stellar command the veteran has demonstrated, a good sign for the Royals' pitching staff this season. However, how has Wacha been successful so far through three starts? What have been the key pitches for him this season, and what could his outlook be for the remainder of 2026? Let's break down those important questions regarding Wacha below. Wacha Leading With His Four-Seamer (And Finishing With Change) Wacha is not known as a high-strikeout pitcher due to his mediocre stuff profile. Overall, he's sporting a 96 in TJ Stuff+, and he has only one offering over 100 in TJ Stuff+ this year (his slider). However, that hasn't stopped him from producing strong chase and whiff rates this season, as illustrated below via his TJ Stuff summary. Wacha is producing a chase rate of 34.3% and a whiff rate of 29.5%, which are both well above-average marks. Furthermore, he has allowed a .341 xwOBACON, which is slightly above average. He is doing this despite the 96 overall TJ Stuff+ and 49.3% zone rate, which is barely below average. His most impressive offering this year is not the changeup, which has the highest grade in his six-pitch arsenal (54). Rather, it's been the four-seamer, which has the second-best grade with a 49 mark. The former St. Louis Cardinal is throwing his four-seamer 32.6% of the time this year, his most utilized offering. It averages just 92.9 MPH, but it sports a decent iVB of 18.6 and a spin of 2,174 RPM. He's generating a 30.8% chase, a 31% whiff, and .355 xwOBACON with the four-seamer, and it's interesting to see how he gets to those rates, based on his four-seamer heatmap data this season via TJ Stats. Against righties, Wacha has been efficient in locating the pitch up and away from right-handed hitters. This has helped him produce not just a 36.4% whiff rate but also a 40% chase (O-Swing%) and a .219 xwOBACON. He doesn't generate a ton of called strikes with the four-seamer against righties, but his CSW is still solid at 29.2%. Against lefties, he's been more in the middle of the strike zone. As a result, his xwOBCON is higher (.404), and his whiff (29%) and O-Swing (25%) rates are lower. Still, it's been an effective weapon against hitters from both sides of the plate. Here's an example of Wacha getting a nice rise on the four-seamer and hitting that up-and-away spot against Atlanta's Austin Riley, producing a foul tip strike. M3lNR0RfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X1Z3WlZWRllEWGdRQUFGQUFBZ0FIQ1ZKUUFBQUhXMUFBQkFjRFZWY0hCZ0JXQmdwZg==.mp4 While the four-seamer has been his main weapon against righties, his changeup has been a nice complementary pitch with the four-seamer against lefties. Here's a look at Wacha's changeup heatmap, and notice the much higher usage against lefties, as well as better results. Wacha throws his changeup 33.9% of the time against lefties, compared to just 6.2% against righties. His changeup is more up and away against lefties, a contrast to the low and inside location against righties. Still, the results have been better against lefties, as he is producing a 32.8% CSW, a 31% whiff, and 32.4% O-Swing% with the changeup. Here's an example of Wacha utilizing that changeup up and away to Munetaka Murakami of the White Sox, who whiffs badly, as he is expecting a four-seamer on an 0-2 count in that spot. OHliWnlfWGw0TUFRPT1fQmxBRFVBQlFVZ0lBWEZNQVV3QUhWUVlDQUZsWEJWY0FCbFpUVWdvRUFWQlVVVmRW.mp4 Wacha has always led with his four-seamer and changeup. However, in 2023 and 2024, he led with the changeup and followed it up with the four-seamer. The past two years, he's been more fastball-focused with the changeup as his secondary option to put batters away. That is clear in his pitch usage trend over his career, as shown in Baseball Savant's chart. While some may be flummoxed by Wacha being so confident with a four-seamer that averages under 93 MPH, it seems to be working for the crafty righty so far this season. Can Wacha Keep Up These Solid Results? I don't think Wacha is going to finish the season with an ERA under one. That's impossible, even for the best pitchers in the game. However, it's not out of the question to think that he can at least maintain his 3.04 FIP or 3.46 xERA over the course of the 2026 season. It will be interesting to see how his results fare over the season, especially when comparing his TJ Stuff+ data from this year to 2025. The results are very different, as shown below. However, the TJ Stuff+ marks for his pitches this season mirror closely what he produced a season ago. Last year, Wacha produced a 97 TJ Stuff+ overall, one point better than his mark this season. His changeup is three points worse this season, but his four-seamer is three points better, as well. Thus, it makes sense why his four-seamer has been more effective than his changeup in 2026. A key to his success in 2026 will be his ability to maintain that four-seamer command. Yes, he's generating slightly better iVB and spin on the four-seamer this season. That said, the biggest difference for Wacha and his four-seamer is the location, especially against righties. Below is his 2025 four-seam heatmap. The four-seamer had a good CSW against righties with a 29% mark. However, the whiff rate was much lower at 22.3%, and his O-Swing% was also paltry at 19.8%. Furthermore, his four-seamer got hit hard by righties, as illustrated by the .558 xwOBACON. That's 339 points worse than his mark this season. Then again, he threw 255 four-seamers last year compared to 24 this year, so it's not exactly a fair comparison. Wacha has the stuff to produce another 3.30 to 3.60 ERA season, which would be more than serviceable for a pitcher expected to be the No. 3 starter in the rotation. His stuff profile and contact allowed illustrate that he can produce a season similar to what he's done from 2022 to 2025, when his ERA ranged from 3.22 to 3.86. However, if the command can be maintained, and he can keep generating the whiff and chase on the four-seamer? Well, if that happens, it wouldn't be surprising to see Wacha push for a spot in the All-Star Game in Philadelphia. View full article

Minor League Week in Nutshell All the Royals' affiliates were finally in action, though weather issues did cancel some games. Columbia, which is loaded with many of Kansas City's top prospects, had a solid week, going 4-2 this week. Northwest Arkansas also continued its winning ways, going 4-2 this past week after going 2-1 in its Opening Weekend of play. After a long layoff, Quad Cities finally played ball for the first time in 2026. They played at home in Davenport, Iowa, at Modern Woodsman Park and finished 2-4 for the week. One has to wonder if the long layoff affected their play in their first six contests of the season. Lastly, Omaha had a winning record, going 3-2 against the Iowa Cubs, though one game was rained out. In terms of individual performances, some of the top prospects in the Royals system had solid weeks, especially on the hitting side. It's still early, but there's a lot to feel good about with the Royals' farm system, especially if these position player prospects continue to develop at their respective levels. Here are the records of the three Royals affiliates that have played games thus far, as of April 13th. Omaha: 7-7 Northwest Arkansas: 6-3 Quad Cities: 2-4 Columbia: 5-4 Omaha Highlights John Rave didn't make the Opening Day roster, but he's had an excellent start in Omaha. Over the past seven days, Rave hit .474 with a 1.447 OPS. He hit two home runs, collected 9 RBI, stole two bases, and had three walks to only four strikeouts. For his strong performance at the plate, the outfielder was named International League Player of the Week. For the year, Rave is hitting .319 with a .996 OPS in 47 at-bats. He has two home runs, two RBI, six stolen bases (on six attempts), and has 12 walks to 11 strikeouts. Now, I'm not sure if Rave is more than a Four-A player, as he only posted a 65 wRC+ in 175 plate appearances last year. That said, if he continues to produce like this, he could earn himself a call-up to Kansas City, especially if the offense continues to flounder (especially with runners in scoring position). Another Storm Chasers hitter who had a strong week against the Iowa Cubs was Kameron Misner, who was acquired from Tampa Bay this offseason. In 18 at-bats, Misner hit .333 with a 1.288 OPS. His performance against the Cubs this week included two home runs, 10 RBI, four walks, and only two strikeouts. Misner is proving he can generate power and plate discipline, though he will need to cut down on strikeouts at the next level. Last year, in 217 plate appearances with the Rays, the former Mizzou product struck out 31.8% of the time and hit .213 with a 75 wRC+. There's some power potential with Misner, but the swing-and-misses limited his ceiling last year. His strong plate discipline and ability to launch the ball in Omaha this year are encouraging signs that he may be figuring it out. The bullpen continues to be an area of strength for Storm Chasers. Last week, it was Eric Cerantola. This week, it's Beck Way, who didn't allow a run and only had a 0.71 WHIP in two appearances and 5.2 IP this week. He also had six strikeouts and only one walk, a positive sign for him, given his past walk issues, especially in Triple-A. Way is the last remaining prospect from the 2022 Andrew Benintendi trade with the New York Yankees. T.J. Sikkema and Chandler Champlain are both no longer with the Royals organization. It still seems like a long shot that Way will make the Major League squad, and he could do a better job this year of generating chase and whiffs. However, his stuff and zone metrics have been really solid this season, as evidenced by his TJ Stuff+ summary from this season. Royals fans shouldn't sleep on Way as a potential middle-innings or sleeper late-inning reliever at the Major League level, especially if he's able to generate more chase and whiff as he pitches more innings in Triple-A. Northwest Arkansas Highlights Carson Roccaforte got off to a slow start, but he was absolutely scorching this week at the plate. In 22 at-bats, the former Louisiana-Lafayette outfielder hit .364 this week with a 1.500 OPS. He also launched three home runs, had three doubles, a triple, collected five RBI, and six walks while striking out eight times. The only blemish for Roccaforte this week was that he was caught stealing twice. Other than that, Roccaforte showed that he could be an impact player for the Royals as soon as 2027. For his strong performance, Roccaforte was named the Texas League Position Player of the Week. Another position player who was arguably as effective as Roccaforte this week was Sam Kulasingam. In 21 at-bats, the Air Force grad hit .381 with a 1.224 OPS and a home run and five RBI. Kulasingam had five doubles, four walks, eight strikeouts, and stole a base. The utility player has been known for his defense, baserunning, and intangibles as a prospect. However, it was nice to see him put up some solid numbers this week, especially in terms of power. On April 8th, the switch-hitter launched his first home run of the year from the right side of the plate. On the pitching end, reliever Oscar Rayo had a solid week and may be a sleeper arm in this Royals organization. The Nicaraguan lefty, who pitched for Nicaragua in the WBC, made two appearances and pitched 6.2 innings this week. In that sample, he posted a 2.70 ERA and 0.60 WHIP with two runs on four hits and zero walks. He also had six strikeouts. While his stuff needs to play up a bit more, some scouts have remarked that Rayo resembles former lefty reliever Angel Zerpa. According to TJ Stats, Rayo has succeeded by flooding the strike zone and generating strikes. His CSW% is 34.3% this year, and he hasn't issued a single walk either. As a result, he's producing a 2.08 ERA for the season in Northwest Arkansas. Rayo did give up two home runs this week, both coming in one outing against Amarillo. However, if he can avoid the longball, Rayo could be a reliever who could make his way to Omaha at some point and could be considered for a roster spot in 2027. Quad Cities River Bandits It wasn't a great week for the River Bandits' bats, which explains why they went 2-4 this week. That said, some of the Royals' top prospects are playing in Quad Cities and showed flashes of promise despite the losing record in their first full week of play. In 19 plate appearances, Blake Mitchell, our No. 2 prospect at Royals Keep, is hitting .211 with 11 strikeouts. However, he has a .375 OBP, .901 OPS, and hit home runs in back-to-back games. Thus, the plate patience and power haven't skipped a beat from this fall and spring. Another hitter that went yard this week for Quad Cities was fellow catching prospect Ramon Ramirez, our No. 8 prospect at Royals Keep. He hit his first home run of the year in the same game that Mitchell hit his second and also had a walkoff single in an April 12th win against Wisconsin. In 19 at-bats, Ramirez is hitting .264 with a .774 OPS. He also has a double and three RBI, as well as a walk and five strikeouts. Like many River Bandits hitters, Ramirez started slow, but it seems like he's beginning to heat up at the plate. In terms of pitching, Justin Lamkin stood out the most on the starting end this week. In his first outing of the year, the former Texas A&M product went four innings and allowed no runs and no hits while walking two and striking out six. Of his six strikeouts, five came against the first six hitters he faced in the game. A competitive round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, Lamkin posted a 3.42 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 22.6% K-BB% in 84.1 IP with the Aggies last season. While he doesn't have the prospect shine of David Shields, who started on Opening Day for the River Bandits, the 21-year-old lefty has the potential to develop into a middle-of-the-rotation starter at the Major League level. In terms of relievers, Kamden Edge stood out with two solid performances this week. In 2.1 IP, Edge struck out five and allowed no runs, no hits, and only one walk (he did have one hit batter). A 20th-round 2025 MLB Draft pick by the Royals out of Northwestern Oklahoma JC is an enticing arm with high-upside stuff and strikeout ability. Last year in Low-A Columbia, he posted a 1.88 ERA and 28.3% K% in 14.1 IP. Walks were an issue (18.3% BB%), but he has the stuff to be a Major League setup man or closer. Edge doesn't have the prettiest pitching motion, but he can get outs in multiple ways, and he could move quickly in the Royals system, similar to Dennis Colleran a year ago. Columbia Fireflies Highlights The Fireflies bats were in full force this week, ranking third as a team this week in the Carolina League in home runs and OPS. When it came to top hitters from this group this past week, three particularly stood out: catcher Brooks Bryan, shortstop Josh Hammond, and infielder Yandel Ricardo. An 8th-round pick out of Troy University, Bryan absolutely mashed this week. In 16 plate appearances, he hit .375 with a 1.399 OPS. He also had two doubles, two home runs, six RBI, a stolen base, five walks, and only four strikeouts. The 21-year-old catcher was a consistent producer for the Trojans in college, and it looks like he's on his way to do the same for the Fireflies in 2026. After a slow opening weekend, Hammond got on fire in his first full week of play. Hammond led the Fireflies in plate appearances this week with 21, and he hit .286 with a 1.090 OPS. The 28th-overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, he collected three doubles, 1 triple, a home run, and three RBI. He also showed good discipline at the plate with five walks to eight strikeouts. On April 10th, Hammond had four hits and was a single shy of the cycle (though I wonder if one of his doubles could've been shortened to a single to allow him to get it). Hammond definitely had one of the most impressive offensive performances this week from an infield prospect, as he ranks No. 7 in our top prospects list. However, Ricardo wasn't that far off. In 20 at-bats, the Cuban-born infielder hit .300 with an .867 OPS. He had six hits, which included one double, one triple, four RBI, and three stolen bases. Ricardo was known for his plate discipline as a prospect in the DSL and Arizona Complex League, and he showed that patented discipline with four walks to four strikeouts this week. It would be nice to see him be more efficient on the basepaths (he was caught twice), but overall, Ricardo made a solid impression this week for the Fireflies, especially with his ability to spray the ball all over the field. After an okay, but not great, 2026 debut, Kendry Chourio bounced back in full force in his second start of the year. In 4.2 IP, Chourio allowed no runs, no hits, no walks, and struck out six batters. It was an impressive performance from the 19-year-old righty and showed the kind of ace potential he possesses, which is exciting for Royals fans. Chourio has excelled so far this year at limiting walks while maximizing strikeouts. His CSW, though, could be better, and that could be due to him still developing the movement on his current pitch mix, especially his four-seamer. Here's a look at some of his rates and numbers via TJ Stats. While he has impressive K%, BB%, and GB% marks, his whiff% (34th percentile), CSW% (28th percentile) and SwStr% (52nd percentile) could use some improvement. However, there's no need to panic, as Chourio could see these rates improve as he gains more experience and develops his pitch quality with the Columbia pitching coaches. View full article

I appreciate that Rolando. And thanks for the kind words on the article. Really appreciate your feedback. Matt Quatraro is an analytical manager, so I definitely think he, the coaching staff, and the analytical team have access to the data I have presented and are aware of it. The issue is that running a clubhouse can be very delicate, requiring a balance between data and personalities. I think Q has done a good job of managing the personalities and day-to-day. You really haven't heard much outside of the Jensen incident. And the team definitely seems like a more focused and relaxed group than they were during the Matheny days. At the same time, I also wonder where Q has to be realistic with Salvy and let the data do its talking. Yes, you don't want to upset a legend like Salvy, but the data doesn't support keeping him in the cleanup spot for much longer. I do know Q eventually makes those moves, and he did so a year ago, and the offense turned around (for both Salvy and the team). Hopefully, Q makes the move sooner rather than later.

Image courtesy of William Purnell-Imagn Images The Kansas City Royals are a team starving for run production, especially with runners in scoring position. Going into Saturday's game with the White Sox, Kansas City ranks last in Major League Baseball with a 39 wRC+ in RISP situations this season. They also rank last in ISO (.054), 29th in batting average (.196), and 29th in BB/K ratio (0.29) with runners in scoring position this year. For a team that had struggled early in 2025 in RISP situations, these issues with runners on second and third are frustrating, especially for a team that's currently 6-7 going into Saturday's afternoon contest at Kauffman Stadium. It's easy to blame the front office for the Royals' RISP struggles. There are many fans who think GM JJ Picollo should've made a bigger swing for a free-agent bat or traded for one. That said, Jarren Duran, who seemed to be the primary Royals' trade target this offseason, currently has a 51 wRC+. Furthermore, the bottom of the Royals' lineup has been fine, with Kyle Isbel (181 wRC+), Jonathan India (100 wRC+), Jac Caglianone (98 wRC+), and Isaac Collins (82 wRC+) showing decent production in those spots. However, the big issue has been the Royals' 2-3-4 production in RISP situations, as David Lesky of Inside the Crown pointed out on Twitter yesterday. When it comes to RISP wRC+, Bobby Witt Jr. sports a 17 wRC+, Vinnie Pasquantino sports an 8 wRC+, and Salvador Perez has a -65 wRC+. Royals fans read that latter number correctly. The Royals captain has been 65 runs below average with runners in scoring position this season. Of course, it's a small sample. However, his 20 plate appearances in RISP situations lead all Royals hitters as of Saturday, according to Fangraphs. Second is Vinnie with 19. The Royals can be patient with one of those hitters to get out of their funk during this stretch. However, two of them? That's a harder ask, especially with a critical series against the Detroit Tigers coming up on the road. It's not just RISP situations that are an issue for Salvy. Overall, he's hitting .157 with a 51 wRC+ in 56 plate appearances. His 12.5% strikeout rate is 7 percentage points lower than his mark a year ago, which is good. However, his ISO is 52 points down from 2025, and his xwOBA of .307 is 50 points down. It's not like last year, when he was crushing the ball and getting unlucky. He's actually showing genuine signs of regression at the plate. Therefore, manager Matt Quatraro should move Salvy (and perhaps Pasquantino) down in the batting order. Not only do Salvy's current metrics not support him being the Royals' cleanup hitter, but the historical data doesn't confirm it either. The Statcast Data for Salvy Does Not Look Encouraging There are some things that Perez is still doing well offensively this season, at least when it comes to the batted-ball and Statcast data. Salvy's barrel rate is 13.6%, and his hard-hit rate is 43.2%, both of which are above the league average. His average exit velocity is 90.7 MPH, 0.7 MPH higher than a year ago. However, beyond those metrics, the Statcast data has been concerning. Here's a look at where he ranks in certain Statcast categories, via his TJ Stats Statcast summary profile. A few particular metrics stick out with Salvy. His Pull Air% ranks in the 44th percentile. His Max EV ranks in the 38th percentile. His Z-Contact% ranks in the 35th percentile, and his LA Sweet-spot% ranks in the 25th percentile. Those are big declines, especially considering where he was in those categories a year ago, as illustrated below. Last season, his Pull Air% and Max EV ranked in the 88th percentile. Furthermore, his LA Sweet-Spot% ranked in the 65th percentile. His Z-Contact% also ranked in the 43rd percentile, not significantly higher but still noteworthy. The reality is that Perez is hitting the ball less hard, pulling the ball less, and making less contact on balls in the strike zone. Those are all signs of regression, and even though he's bound to see some positive regression in the future, he may not improve enough to match what he did a season ago in those important Statcast categories. The bat speed overall isn't all that different from 2025. His 72.4 MPH average bat speed is only 0.5 MPH slower than last year's mark. That said, his 21.2% fast-swing rate is 9.3% lower than in 2025, and his 7.9-foot swing length hasn't changed. He's blasting the ball above league average at 19%, but his squared-up date is down to 31.6%, a 0.9% decline. The Royals need a primary run producer in the cleanup spot. Right now, based on the Statcast data and his skills, I am not sure that's Salvy, unless something dramatic happens soon. Salvy Historically Hasn't Been Good in the Cleanup Spot After the Royals' 2-0 loss to the White Sox on Thursday, Quatraro mentioned that Perez had proven himself in the past in the cleanup spot, pointing to home runs and RBI as the key indicators. That said, this isn't fantasy baseball. Were his 30 home runs and 100 RBI impressive? Yes, but when looking at his cleanup-spot performance last year, the data showed he wasn't as impressive as his home runs and RBI totals suggested. In 307 plate appearances as a cleanup hitter, he hit .216 with a .621 OPS and 67 wRC+. After a slow start, Quatraro moved Maikel Garcia to cleanup and Salvy to the No. 5 spot. In 315 plate appearances in the No. 5 spot, Perez hit .261 with a .859 OPS and 130 wRC+. As a cleanup hitter, he hit seven home runs and posted a .134 ISO last season. As a No. 5 hitter? He hit 23 home runs and posted a .295 ISO. Some Royals fans may say, "Yeah, well, that's just one year, bro!" (I added the "bro"). Well, let's take a look at his career splits in the 3, 4, and 5 spots, where he's had the most career plate appearances. No. 3: 1,783 plate appearances, .270 average, .790 OPS, .215 ISO, 111 wRC+. No. 4: 2,172 plate appearances, .238 average, .695 OPS, .171 ISO, 87 wRC+. No. 5: 1,667 plate appearances, .272 average, .777 OPS, .200 ISO, 105 wRC+. The best spot in his career has been No. 3, but given how he's trending, it's unlikely Quatraro would move him up (and that may not be the best idea anyway). In 1,667 career plate appearances in the No. 5 spot, he's been solid with a .777 OPS and 105 wRC+. In the cleanup spot, however, Salvy has been mediocre, as evidenced by his posting the worst marks in those four categories. In fact, his wRC+ in the cleanup spot is nearly 20 points worse than his career mark in the No. 5 spot. Quatraro has been protective of players and their standing in the batting order. Even though Witt makes a lot of sense in the leadoff spot (gives him the most at-bats in a game and he's their best player), Quatraro (or Witt) has been averse to it because of some early struggles in that spot (particularly in 2023). It may be a similar case with Salvy. The Royals captain may be comfortable in the cleanup spot, and Quatraro doesn't have a whole lot of "traditional" options right now, either, who could easily fill in for Salvy. That said, it hasn't been working for Salvy in cleanup for more than a year, perhaps even longer. It may be good for Quatraro and his team to trust the data in this situation and move Salvy from the cleanup spot sooner rather than later. So, How Should the Royals' Lineup Look? The easiest solution with the lineup is to move Salvy down to the No. 5 spot. That said, what does the rest of the lineup look like, not just at cleanup, but at the top of the batting order in general? An easy solution could be to move Garcia back to the No. 4 spot, like a year ago, but he's been thriving at leadoff this year. The Venezuelan third baseman is hitting .315 with a 142 wRC+ and provides the kind of plate discipline and speed at the top of the lineup that they need. Another solution could be to move Vinnie down to No. 4, or perhaps move Carter Jensen up to that spot. Pasquantino has thrived in the cleanup spot, with a career .201 ISO and a 152 wRC+ in 317 plate appearances. That said, he also has a career .185 ISO and 107 wRC+ in 1,313 plate appearances in the No. 3 spot. So it's not like Pasquantino is ineffective in the No. 3 spot, and there's a lot more data that supports him at No. 3 as well in terms of plate appearances. One option could be to move Jensen to cleanup. It's a bold move for the rookie, but the Statcast data suggests he's the best power hitter on this team right now, especially in terms of exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit rates. Here's a look at his TJ Stats Statcast profile this season. Yes, there are some contact issues with Jensen, given his 14th-percentile Z-Contact% and 7th-percentile whiff and strikeout rates. However, he has a 40th percentile BB% and a 71st percentile O-Swing%, so he has the plate discipline to make up for that swing-and-miss. However, the power is what sticks out the most with Jensen. His Max EV ranks in the 95th percentile, his barrel rate ranks in the 93rd percentile, his hard-hit rate ranks in the 74th percentile, and his Pull Air% ranks in the 98th percentile. The power tool is legitimate, and with four home runs, Jensen may have the biggest home run upside of any hitter in the Royals lineup. His home run yesterday against the White Sox shows that he could not just handle the cleanup spot, but thrive in it. Salvy has veteran presence and is the captain, which makes this decision tough for Quatraro (I'm guessing he doesn't want to throw off the clubhouse's vibe). However, Jensen can easily fill in the cleanup spot and surpass what Salvy is bringing in that place in the batting order currently and down the road, both this season and beyond. View full article

Image courtesy of William Purnell-Imagn Images The Royals' bullpen has gone through its share of struggles this year. According to Fangraphs, the Kansas City relievers rank 27th in ERA, 28th in WHIP and H/9, 23rd in HR/9, and 22nd in BB/9. On a positive note, the Royals' bullpen ranks 15th in K/9, which is much better than their 29th ranking a season ago. Thus, there's some talent in the Royals' bullpen; it's just finding the right combination and pieces that can carry this pitching staff in various leverage situations. With Carlos Estevez on the IL, the Royals have been relying on Lucas Erceg, Matt Strahm, and John Schreiber in high-leverage situations. However, one pitcher who has emerged is Eli Morgan, who came to Spring Training as a Royals non-roster invitee, eventually made the roster, and earned an MLB contract. In Cactus League play, Morgan posted a 0.87 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 1.94 FIP in 10.1 IP. That also included some excellent whiff and CSW metrics, as illustrated below. Morgan didn't make the Opening Day roster, as the Royals opted for Alex Lange and Bailey Falter, who were out of Minor League options. However, Falter is currently on the IL, and the Royals needed fresh bullpen arms after heavy workloads by Luinder Avila and Steven Cruz during the Guardians series. Thus, the Royals tapped Morgan and Mitch Spence to fill in, and the former has demonstrated that he's not only a solid fill-in reliever but could hold a major role in this Royals bullpen in 2026. Morgan Showing Stuff and Results in Kansas City So far, in two outings, Morgan has shown versatility as a multi-innings reliever for the Royals. The 29-year-old has accumulated five innings with Kansas City, so far, which included a three-inning outing against Milwaukee and a two-inning appearance against the White Sox (both at home). In that sample, Morgan has a 0.00 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and a 1.90 FIP. He is also sporting a 30% K% and 20% K-BB%, which shows his impeccable command. The former Guardians reliever has also done an excellent job not just generating strikes, of both the called-strike and whiff variety, but preventing hard contact as well. That is illustrated by his TJ Stats summary below. Morgan doesn't sport high-end velocity, as evidenced by his 91.4 MPH fastball velocity, which ranks in the 12th percentile. However, he is still generating a 33.3% whiff rate (79th percentile), and a 36.2% CSW% (93rd percentile). Those solid metrics could be attributed to the excellent stuff shown on his changeup and slider, which sport TJ Stuff+ marks of 103 and 101, respectively. Here's a deeper look at Morgan's TJ Stuff+ profile this year, via TJ Stats. Morgan's changeup has been his best pitch by far this season. Not only does it have the best TJ Stuff+ mark of his three-pitch mix, but it also sports a 60% zone, 50% chase, 28.6% whiff rate, and a .286 xwOBACON. The pitch has been a particularly effective offering against lefties, whom he has thrown the changeup 37.8% of the time against. When facing left-handed hitters, Morgan is generating a 64.3% zone rate, 40% chase rate, 42.9% whiff rate, and a .240 xwOBACON. Thus, the approach is working in terms of the results. Here's a look at a punchout that Morgan generated with the changeup against Milwaukee's Brice Turang in Morgan's first outing with the Royals last Saturday. b0d3bERfWGw0TUFRPT1fVkZRRVZsSURCMVFBQ2xvQUJBQUhBd0JmQUZrQUJ3UUFVMWNEQWdRRkJWSURCd0lD.mp4 Morgan's slider has also shown results so far in a limited sample. The breaking offering, which he throws 27.5% of the time, generates a 33.3% chase rate and a 71.4% whiff rate. Like the changeup, the slider has been particularly effective against lefties. It's generating 80% chase and whiff rates and a .120 xwOBA. The slider is a harder-breaking offering, with just 3.3 inches of horizontal break and 3.9 inches of iVB. That said, it can be effective against lefties sitting on the four-seamer, as illustrated with this strikeout of Blake Perkins below. b0d3bERfWGw0TUFRPT1fQVZKU1ZGMEdYZ3NBQ1ZZQVZBQUhDRlVDQUZsVFVBTUFVMTBBQmdBTkNBVlhBVllF.mp4 Morgan's four-seamer is an okay, not great offering. It sports a 96 TJ Stuff+ and only an 11.1% whiff rate. However, he does a good job of generating weak contact with it at least. He has produced a .157 xwOBACON with the four-seamer, and it has proved to be a nice pitch that works effectively with his much better changeup and slider offerings. Thus, the righty's repertoire not only has produced strong results through two games, but the stuff behind his three-pitch mix could help him sustain these results over the course of a full season. Are There Any Concerns With Morgan? Morgan had a great season in 2024 with the Cleveland Guardians, posting a 1.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 32 appearances and 42 innings. In Cleveland, the number of innings showed that Morgan was used as a reliever who could go multiple innings on frequent occasions. However, can he fill in high or medium-leverage situations? In terms of gmLI, which measures the leverage index of when a pitcher enters the game, Morgan had a 0.84 mark in his last season with the Guardians. That ranked 11th among Cleveland relievers that season, according to Fangraphs. Thus, he was more utilized in medium- to low-leverage situations, which is what manager Matt Quatraro has used him in so far this season. Hence, it may be tough for Morgan to move into a setup role with the Royals, or at least so quickly. Right now, his gmLI is 0.37, which ranks 9th among Royals relievers thus far, according to Fangraphs. Only Lange (0.14) and Falter (0.13) have seen lower-leverage situations (well, technically Tyler Tolbert too in his lone career pitching appearance). Therefore, Morgan has been a nice story for the Royals so far, and he definitely should have a spot as a long reliever in this Royals bullpen. I would be curious to see if Kansas City possibly parts ways with Falter once he is ready to come off the IL, as Morgan has served that role much better than Falter so far. That said, Falter may be out for a while, as his injury seems unique and stems back to a season ago. There's no question that Morgan has been strong in his Royals debut. However, Royals fans shouldn't be ready to advocate for higher leverage from Morgan just yet. He's succeeding in his role as a multi-inning mop-up man who can keep the higher-leverage arms from accumulating mileage on their arms. But is Morgan a setup man? Not just yet. And that's okay. Let Morgan succeed in his role, with the hope that he can maybe develop more responsibility as he gains more confidence in Kansas City. View full article

I don't mind creativity, and I like that the color scheme is tied to something specific and city-specific (the KC City flag). That said, I really wish they would've just done a Negro Leagues collaboration, as they used to have an annual game where they and their opponent would dress in Negro Leagues uniforms. Nike kiboshed it due to its new licensing agreement with MLB. I do think an NLBM collaboration was probably squashed because the local Indy League team was called the KC Monarchs and already had an agreement.

As I did during Spring Training, I would like to go on here and analyze Royals pitching performances using TJ Stats' TJ Stuff+ Summaries for a particular game. I was able to be at last night's Royals-White Sox game at the K, and it was a brutal offensive effort, but the pitching was encouraging. Here's a breakdown of the Royals pitchers who appeared in yesterday's 2-0 loss. Seth Lugo (6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 4 K) I thought Lugo was pretty efficient here and took care of business. He really only gave up one bad, hard hit, and honestly, that double by Colson Montgomery should've been held to a single (Lance Thomas took a terrible angle, and the relay throw from Bobby was off). The control got away from him in the seventh, which ended up costing the Royals a run (though an error by Vinnie didn't help). Lugo isn't blowing anyone away with whiffs or chases, but he's limiting the hard contact and relying on his defense, which is refreshing to see. John Schreiber (0.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K, 0 BB) I thought this was an encouraging outing from Schreiber. Generated a ton of chase, a good amount of whiff, and really limited hard contact. Stuff was meh, but that's his MO going forward. He's older, and it's just not going to trend in the right direction. Schreiber had a job to do, and honestly, he did it, but his defense didn't help. Eli Morgan (2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 K, 1 BB) Okay, Morgan may be a dude. Another multiple-inning outing and he once again limited opposing hitters. 31.3% chase and 30.8% whiff on 27 pitches. 101 TJ Stuff+ overall with his changeup producing a 104 TJ Stuff+ mark and 42.9% chase. There's a great middle-innings profile here, and he could move into higher leverage if he keeps this going. Anthony Kay (5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K) Listen, the Royals' offense stunk. But you've got to give credit to Kay, who earned his first win since 2021 (what?). Kay was averaging 96,3 MPH on his four-seamer and had a 102 TJ Stuff+. He generated a 35.7% chase and 26.7% whiff on the pitch and a 30.4% and 31% chase and whiff overall. He made some mistakes early and the Royals didn't take advantage (Vinnie had like 3 foul balls that could've been home runs if he kept it fair). It wasn't a good day for the Royals bats, but Kay deserves some credit here.

Thanks for the comment! And I think you bring up some good points with Mozz. I think they can afford to be patient with him. He was Rule 5 eligible and didn't get selected. I think they are making some progress, but he has to figure out a few things with the control. His four-seam control is the key, because he's ramping up the velocity (a problem), but it's still not being thrown for strikes or in hittable areas.

On Thursday morning, the Kansas City Royals unveiled their new City Connect jerseys to the public via social media. On March 31st, a picture of the possible City Connect jerseys leaked, though no confirmation was provided by the Royals, Nike, or Major League Baseball. With the City Connect jersey officially released on Thursday, it appeared the leak was indeed a preview of what the Royals' updated City Connect would look like for the next three seasons (City Connect jerseys have a three-year cycle). The new Royals City Connect shares a lot in common with the Royals' old City Connect jersey. The color scheme is obviously different, with blue, purple, and white instead of navy blue, light blue, and white. However, the new City Connect jerseys will still be utilizing the "Fountain" font that made the old City Connect jerseys so popular with Royals fans. However, instead of "KC", the new City Connect style will emphasize the old "R" logo. Here's a picture of the old City Connect jersey worn by Vinnie Pasquantino during an April 14th, 2023, game against the Braves. Per Kindle Biermann, manager of business and community communications, in addition to wearing them every Friday evening game, the Royals will also have multiple promotions and giveaways throughout the year that will utilize the new City Connect style and color pattern. The Royals begin their four-game homestand against the Chicago White Sox tonight and will unveil their new jerseys, hats, and City Connect gear during Friday night's home game. View full rumor

I am a big fan of Beam as well. He's not a high-strikeout guy, but he's efficient and attacks the strike zone, and I think he makes the most of his mix. I think he could challenge for a spot in the rotation in 2026.

Image courtesy of David Dermer-Imagn Images It's been a tough start to the 2026 season for the Kansas City Royals. Despite high hopes in Spring Training, the Royals are currently 5-7, having lost their most recent series to the Guardians in Cleveland. The Royals lost 10-2 on Wednesday in the series finale, a game that was marred by Cole Ragans being pulled in 0.2 IP due to getting hit in the hand by a Jose Ramirez line drive. Thankfully, it seems like the injury isn't serious, and the Royals and Ragans are optimistic that he will be ready for his next scheduled start. While the Royals' 10 runs allowed will jump out to frustrated fans, the lack of offensive production may be the more concerning development for this Kansas City team. The Royals combined for only three runs and six hits over the past two games, and they scored seven runs in the three-game series in Cleveland (they won the first game 4-1). After getting off to a slow start in 2025 at the plate, it seems like the same trend is happening again in 2026. Unfortunately, Bobby Witt Jr. has been one of the biggest hitters who has been struggling out of the gate for the Royals. In 52 plate appearances, Witt is hitting .273 with a .660 OPS. While he has a .365 OBP, which is good, his slugging is only .295, and he has only one extra-base hit so far this season (an RBI double on Wednesday). For a hitter in the middle to the bottom of the lineup, this stat line is serviceable. However, for a No. 2 hitter in the lineup that is expected to carry this team offensively, this is not the start the Royals were hoping for. Nonetheless, is Witt due for a down season in 2026? Or has he been bitten by some rough batted-ball luck and is due for regression soon? Let's take a look at where he's struggled so far this year, what has been going well, and what Royals fans should expect from Witt going forward, perhaps as early as the upcoming series against the White Sox. Struggling to Square Up Balls (Is Bat Speed and Tilt the Reason?) When looking at his Statcast percentiles via TJ Stats, Witt has been pretty stellar in most categories, especially batted ball ones. That is illustrated in the TJ Stats graphic below. Everything looks pretty similar to what he did in 2025. Yes, the chase is high (31st percentile O-Swing%), and he could do a better job of pulling the ball (20th percentile Pull Air%). However, the main difference with this graphic is that he has a .272 wOBA this season compared to a .360 wOBA a season ago. Furthermore, his xwOBA is .416, which is 144 points higher than his actual wOBA. High Leverage Baseball mentioned this on Twitter as one of the biggest wOBA-xwOBA discrepancies in baseball right now. So what has been the difference for Witt this year when all the other metrics have been solid and similar to what he did during his All-Star season a year ago? Well, the squared-up rate could explain why Witt hasn't quite met his expected metrics this season. This season, Witt's 17.6% squared up rate ranks in the 17th percentile. Last year, he had a 27% squared-up rate, which ranked in the 64th percentile. That 9.4% difference is significant and explains why he is hitting the ball hard, but it's not launching in a way that produces base hits, especially extra-base hits. An interesting trend for Witt that could be contributing to that lackluster squared-up rate is that his average bat speed and bat tilt are both down from a year ago. Last year, his average bat speed was 74.3 MPH, which ranked in the 82nd percentile. Furthermore, his tilt was 29 degrees. For those unfamiliar with what "tilt" is, it can be defined as follows: This year, his average bat speed is 72.6 MPH, which ranks in the 59th percentile. Furthermore, his tilt is 27 degrees, two down from a season ago. When it comes to his tilt-rolling trend so far this season, it's clearly below the MLB average, as shown in the chart below from Savant. Now, let's take a look at what that swing path-tilt rolling trend looked like in 2025. Witt's never had a high tilt, which, as Savant says, is not necessarily a bad thing. However, he's seen some pretty big valleys this year, though he experienced tough dips in tilt at various points last season. The difference between this year's tilt and last year's may be tied to his bat speed. With elite bat speed last year, he was able to produce power on his swing, even if it was a bit flatter. Here's a look at how his bat speed looked in 2025. Witt's bat speed hovered around the 75 MPH range for most of the season. That is about three MPH above the league average and a sign of some elite natural swing skills. Now, let's take a look at his bat speed this season, albeit in a much smaller sample. The bat speed isn't bad, as it's mostly been above-average this year. However, he's touched 75 MPH far less than a year ago, and he's hovered around or below the MLB average bat speed. It's only a 74 swing sample, which is why I don't think it's something to panic about. However, if there's not an uptick in bat speed, it will be interesting to see how his power will respond with the current swing path-tilt. Because right now, the power and squared-up results aren't there for Bobby. Seeing Fewer Strikes and Drawing More Walks (But Taking Less Advantage of Meatballs) Another reason Bobby isn't "bashing" the ball as much as usual is that he's just not getting enough hittable strikes in the zone. Instead of chasing those bad balls and getting weak contact, he's laying off them and drawing more walks. Witt is currently drawing a 14.6% walk rate, which is 7.5% higher than a year ago. On one hand, it's been great to see Witt get on base more with the walk than a year ago. His OBP of .365 is 14 percentage points higher than last year's due to a massive increase in his walk rate. Here's a look at his rolling BB% chart from Savant this season. He saw a massive spike initially, but the pressing has seemed to cut his walks down recently. That said, the former second overall pick is known for making contact with his bat. And it's not like he's chasing less either. His 33% chase rate is actually 2.3% higher than it was a year ago. Thus, it's been more about pitchers avoiding Witt so far this year and throwing off his approach than Witt developing a serious "gain" in plate discipline. This season, Witt's zone rate is 42.6%, 7.4% down from a season ago. Furthermore, his meatball% is 7.4%, down 0.8%. Because of that inconsistency in strikes seen, Witt has been less aggressive on those meatball pitches. His meatball swing percentage of 64.3% is 20.6 percentage points lower than a year ago. The good thing with the latter metric is that it won't stay that way forever. His career meatball swing% is 81.4%. Hence, there will be a positive change in not just the number of hittable pitches that he will see, but in his swings on these pitches as well. When those two aspects happen (meatball% and meatball swing%), the production from Witt will increase, especially in terms of slugging, extra-base hits, and home runs. Here's a look at his run value zone chart from 2025, and notice how many positive runs above average he produced in those "meatball" (middle-middle) areas. In the middle-middle, he produced a run value of 6.9 runs above average. In the middle and inside, it was 4.0 runs above average. When pitchers made mistakes, Witt made them pay dearly. Now, let's take a look at that batter run value zone chart this year, with him taking less advantage of those meatball pitches. This year, he's been 0.8 runs below average on pitches middle-middle and 0.1 runs below average on pitches middle-in. That's a huge swing in two areas where he feasted a year ago. Either Witt is not seeing pitches well at this time of the year, or he is pressing and thinking too much in the box. Regardless, when he makes that adjustment, the production will swing positive, especially since his hitting skills and tools remain so elite. Taking Steps in the Right Direction Witt had a good game in the series finale at the plate, even though the Royals lost by eight runs. He had two hits, including his first double of the season. It came off Guardians starter Joey Cantillo, who struck out nine Royals batters and only allowed three hits and two runs in 5.2 innings of work. He didn't get that big home run or help the Royals get a win (though he did all he could), but it was a step in the right direction for a franchise player who has been plagued by some rough batted-ball luck to begin the season. The Royals will get a favorable matchup this weekend with a four-game series against the White Sox. After sweeping the Blue Jays last weekend, the White Sox were swept at home against the Orioles. Thus, Chicago will be coming back reeling even more than the Royals, who lost 2 of 3 in Cleveland. It's easy to be negative about Witt and his outlook after a tough start to the year. It becomes even easier when the Royals are below .500 and haven't generated any consistent run production through 12 games. That said, Witt isn't the problem in this Kansas City lineup. He's showing all the skills and batted-ball ability of his 2025 and even 2024 self. Once the Royals star makes that slight adjustment in either pitch recognition or mechanics, he will be back to his old, productive hitting self, perhaps as soon as today in game one of the four-game set against White Sox. When that happens, the Royals' record will also follow. View full article

Image courtesy of William Purnell-Imagn Images Major League bullpens can be volatile entities, and the Kansas City Royals' bullpen is no exception. In 2024, the Royals' bullpen ranked 20th in ERA and 17th in fWAR. Last year, they ranked 7th in ERA and 14th in fWAR. Two years ago, many Royals fans felt that the Royals' bullpen was an area of weakness, especially before Lucas Erceg arrived at the Trade Deadline. Last year, it was seen as a strength, especially with Carlos Estevez being the second Royals reliever in franchise history to lead the league in saves (Dan Quisenberry being the other). This year, it's not been the greatest start, much to the chagrin of Royals fans and management. Through 11 games, the Royals rank 26th in bullpen ERA (6.17) and are tied for 25th in reliever fWAR (-0.5). In terms of the former, the Nationals, Diamondbacks, Astros, and Rays have been worse in reliever ERA. Regarding the latter, they are tied with the Rays and Cardinals. The biggest regression from 2025 with this group has been BB/9. After ranking 4th in BB/9 as a bullpen last year with a 3.15 mark, they rank 27th with a 5.91 BB/9. That has contributed not only to their high reliever ERA but also to their WHIP (1.63, which ranks 20th). While the Royals' bullpen hasn't been the sole reason for the Royals' 5-6 record this season, it certainly hasn't helped. Kansas City's bullpen has allowed two walk-off victories, including today in Cleveland. The numbers haven't been good, which begs Royals fans to ask the question: Is this bullpen something to panic about? Or are the Royals just going through a tough stretch and are due for positive regression soon? Let's break down the positives and negatives of the Royals' bullpen and what to look for with this group going forward in 2026, using TJ Stats data and charts. Strahm, Schreiber, and Erceg Off to Rough Starts The Royals lost Estevez to the IL early in the season. The Dominican-born closer only made one appearance before being hit by a line drive in the foot and going on the IL due to a foot contusion. That said, there were concerns about his velocity this offseason, so going on the IL and a possible rehab assignment could help him get back to where he was a season ago in terms of velocity and stuff (his Statcast percentiles after one outing were NOT impressive, to put it kindly). That said, while Estevez's early IL stint was concerning, it seemed like the back of the Royals' bullpen was in good hands. Not only did Erceg and John Schreiber return (they both pitched in high-leverage situations in 2024 and 2025), but they also welcomed Matt Strahm from the Phillies. Strahm thrived in Philadelphia as a setup man and fireman, and it seemed like he would serve in a similar role in Kansas City in 2026. Unfortunately, the results haven't been great so far for the bullpen trio. Here's how the three relievers have fared thus far in 2026 with the Royals. Erceg: 3.86 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 16.7% K%, 11.1% BB%, 5.6% K-BB% in 4.2 IP. Strahm: 5.79 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 23.8% K%, 9.5% BB%, 14.3% K-BB% in 4.2 IP. Schreiber: 6.23 ERA, 2.31 WHIP, 11.1% K%, 22.2% BB%, -11.1 K-BB% in 4.1 IP. Erceg has performed the best of the three relievers, as his ERA is under four. However, he's struggled to strike out batters, and he isn't generating much chase or whiffs either, as seen below via his TJ Stats Statcast percentiles. Erceg ranks in the fourth percentile in whiff rate, first percentile in CSW%, and 32nd percentile in O-Swing%. That's not what one wants to see from someone pitching in high-leverage situations. On a positive note, his fastball velocity ranks in the 92nd percentile, as does his hard-hit allowed. He is also generating a 53.8% GB%, which ranks in the 75th percentile, and his average exit velocity also ranks in that percentile as well Thus, the former Athletics reliever is doing a lot of things right. His TJ Stuff+ has also been above average, with an overall mark of 103, which ranks in the 66th percentile. That said, Erceg needs to find a way to generate more strikeouts, as he posted a 19.3% K rate last season. In 2024, with the Athletics and Royals, he had a 28.5% K%. As for Strahm, he started strong, but he's struggled in recent outings, which is why his ERA is inflated at 5.79. However, some of his Statcast percentiles suggest he may be due for a bounce-back soon, as illustrated below by TJ Stats. Strahm's 30.3% CSW% ranks in the 63rd percentile, and his .235 xwOBA not only ranks in the 85th percentile but is 106 points lower than his actual wOBA. He also has a hard-hit rate allowed 38.5%, which ranks in the 60th percentile. Thus, he hasn't been a total disaster, though the ERA may suggest that. There are concerns with Strahm that still have to be taken into consideration. His 100 overall TJ Stuff+ ranks in the 36th percentile, his fastball velocity is poor (5th percentile), and his extension is lackluster (31st percentile). He still generates a decent amount of whiff (25%, 44th percentile) despite his lack of elite stuff or velocity. However, his pull% allowed is 53.8%. It's never been above 40% since 2021, so one has to wonder if he's tipping hitters off to begin the year, since they are pulling the ball on him so much. The most concerning reliever has been Schreiber, who has looked like a shell of his 2024 and 2025 self. He's been a favorite of Matt Quatraro, especially in crucial spots. Since 2024, he has been tied for fourth in gmLI, which measures the leverage index at the start of an appearance. His 1.51 mark is tied with James McArthur, and he trailed only Estevez (1.81), Erceg (1.70), and Hunter Harvey (1.53). Despite confidence in Schreiber, he has been poor at the beginning of 2026. That is demonstrated not only in his lackluster ERA and K-BB%, but also in his Statcast percentiles below. As Royals fans can see, not a lot has gone right for Schreiber in terms of Statcast data. His hard-hit rate allowed ranks in the 30th percentile, his average EV allowed ranks in the 23rd percentile (as does his TJ Stuff+), his O-Swing% and CSW% rank in the 7th percentile, and his wiff rate ranks in the 1st percentile. Thus, it's not a surprise that the results have been so poor for Schreiber at this point in the season. It's still early, but while Strahm and Erceg have shown promise in some categories in their Statcast summary profiles, the same can't be said for Schreiber. His stuff and batted-ball profile are not trending in the right direction. Schreiber's sweeper, sinker, and changeup all have TJ Stuff+ marks of 102 or higher. However, his four-seamer and cutter have TJ Stuff+ marks of 94 and 93, respectively. It will be tough for Schreiber to be successful as a high-leverage reliever with two of his main pitches being such poor offerings, stuff-wise. Mears and Lynch IV Showing Promise While the Royals haven't gotten great results from those expected to command high-leverage innings this year, they have seen some interesting growth from two relievers who could be ready for more innings in pressure situations. Those two relievers are newcomer Nick Mears and lefty Daniel Lynch IV. Mears came over in the Angel Zerpa deal and has succeeded as a middle-innings reliever capable of pitching in medium-leverage situations. His 1.04 gmLI ranks fourth behind Estevez (1.81), Erceg (1.23), and Strahm (1.21), according to Fangraphs. Despite not being a high-leverage guy, he has produced stellar results. He has a 0.00 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP, and 21.4% K% in 5 IP. His Statcast percentiles have been a little bit mixed, though he has particularly excelled in limiting hard contact, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary below. Mears hasn't allowed a barrel, and his average exit velocity allowed on batted balls ranks in the 70th percentile (86.6 MPH). He also has a 70% GB%, which is encouraging to see from a middle-innings reliever who can come in with men on base. Mears can take advantage of the stellar infield defense behind him (the Royals rank 5th in infielder Fielding Run Value). The main concern with Mears is that his profile is similar to Erceg: the stuff is decent (101 overall TJ Stuff+), but he doesn't generate a whole lot of whiff (15th percentile), CSW% (24th percentile), or chase (24th percentile O-Swing%). Thus, while Mears has been good, Quatraro may be hesitant to bring him in until he can show more effectiveness when it comes to generating chases, whiffs, and ultimately, strikeouts. On the lefty end, Lynch IV has stepped up and been the most valuable lefty reliever so far, which says something with Strahm in this bullpen. In four innings of work, Lynch has a 2.25 ERA, a 2.43 FIP, a 1.25 WHIP, and 16.7% K-BB% (fueled by a 33.3% K%). When it comes to his TJ Stats Statcast summary, the former Virginia lefty has thrived by generating strikes, minimizing barrels, and average exit velocity on batted balls so far this season. Not only does Lynch rank in the 86th percentile in xwOBA, 83rd percentile in K%, and 71st percentile in whiff%, but he also ranks in the 100th percentile in barrel rate allowed and 78th percentile in average EV allowed. That shows Lynch doesn't rely solely on whiffs to be successful. He can allow contact and keep the ball in the yard, which is needed from a reliever in certain situations. The main concern with Lynch is that control has been somewhat sporadic. His zone rate ranks in the 22nd percentile, and his 16.7% BB% ranks in the 16th percentile. As a result of that erratic control, hitters haven't chased too much, as illustrated by 22.2% O-Swing%, which ranks in the 16th percentile. The better Lynch can find the strike zone as he pitches more innings, the more effective he will be as a pitcher overall. His whiff ability and ability to minimize hard contact are already encouraging and will only be amplified if his control settles down. Final Thoughts on the Royals Bullpen The early results haven't been good, but I don't think Royals fans should hit the panic button with the bullpen just yet. Yes, Estevez wasn't good, but so much of his struggles were tied to velocity. If he comes back healthy and with velocity, I think he will show the closer form that made him so effective in 2025. Estevez wasn't a big-strikeout or whiff-generating guy. That said, he flooded the zone, induced weak and ineffective contact, and seemed willing to take the ball in the biggest moments and biggest spots. Notice how different Estevez's 2025 Season Pitching Percentiles chart below is from his 2026 one that I showcased earlier in this post. Estevez wasn't a savant when it came to generating chase (19th percentile), minimizing barrels (31st percentile), or hard hits (27th percentile). However, he attacked hitters and generated strikes (70th-percentile CSW%) with premium velocity (89th percentile) and stuff (80th-percentile TJ Stuff+). The Royals are missing that, and haven't gotten that so far from Erceg and Strahm, though it's a small sample. Even if Estevez doesn't come back 100 percent, the Royals have big "stuff" guys available who could fill that role, though they are less proven. Steven Cruz has given up some barrels and home runs, which explains his high 7.36 ERA. That said, his velocity and TJ Stuff+ have been some of the best marks in the Royals bullpen thus far. The same was true for Luinder Avila in his lone start, a rough one on Saturday against the Brewers. While he was tagged for five earned runs in three innings of work, the velocity, TJ Stuff+, and extension were all impressive, as illustrated in his Statcast summary below. Avila wasn't immediately sent down to Omaha after his Saturday start. Thus, the Royals may be keeping the promising Venezuelan arm up in Kansas City, with the hope that he can succeed in the bullpen, much like he did a year ago (1.29 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 14 IP last season). Therefore, the Royals' bullpen certainly hasn't been stellar or pretty so far this year. However, fans shouldn't throw the towel on this group just yet. Schreiber is a concern, and his role may be lessened, especially if Mears, Lynch, Avila, and Cruz trend upward and Estevez returns healthy. However, there's enough depth to absorb Schreiber's regression, which is something the Royals couldn't say with their bullpen in 2025 or even 2024. That's a sign that better days are ahead for this group of Royals relievers. View full article