Kevin O'Brien

The Arizona Fall League enters its final full week of play for the 2026 season. On Saturday, November 7th, and Sunday, November 8th, the AFL hosts the Home Run Derby and Fall Stars Game, respectively. The playoffs then begin November 12th and run through November 14th. Right now, the Surprise Saguaros are in the thick of the race. They are 12-9, good for second in the AFL (behind only the Peoria Javelinas). It was an interesting week for Royals prospects playing for Surprise in week four. The bats didn't stand out as they did in weeks 2 and 3, though a couple had respectable weeks. On the mound, some Royals arms stood out, especially Justin Lamkin, the 71st overall selection in the 2025 MLB Draft. Let's break down the Royals hitters and pitchers in the AFL from this past week and what fans can expect as we reach the conclusion of the 2026 AFL campaign. Hitters: Bryan Sticks Out During Down Week for Royals Bats Hitting stats from October 25 to October 31st Zion Rose, OF: 13 AB, .231/.353/.231, 2 R, 1 RBI, 3 BB, 5 K, 3 SB. Brooks Bryan, C: 11 AB, .273/.385/.636, 1 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 4 K. Austin Charles, SS/3B: 8 AB, .000/.000/.000, 0 BB, 3 K. Angeibel Gomez, OF: 8 AB, .250/.250/.375, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 SB. Bryan had a solid week, collecting a home run and a pair of runs, RBI, and walks. The former Troy Trojan leads the Saguaros with four home runs and ranks third in OPS, behind only Welbyn Francisca and Aidan Miller, heralded prospects in the Guardians and Phillies organizations, respectively. Furthermore, Bryan's .430 wOBA is impressive, as are many of his other Statcast percentiles this fall. Based on this profile, it would not be surprising to see Bryan earn a spot in the Fall Stars game next weekend. He is definitely showing that he is ready for a spot in High-A Quad Cities in 2027. Rose and Gomez didn't collect many hits this week, but they didn't look overwhelmed, and they swiped some bags with four combined. There is no question that Rose and Gomez are showing they have the contact skills to reach the Major League level. However, the power and ability to barrel balls is still a question mark. Rose has less time than Gomez, as the Royals hope Rose can reach the Majors by midseason in 2028 at the latest. When looking at his Statcast percentiles in the AFL, Rose improving his LA Sweet-Spot%, Barrel%, and Pull Air% will be key. As for Gomez, he's hitting .306 with a .834 OPS in 36 at-bats this fall. This performance has turned some heads in the AFL, especially among coaches in rival organizations, as profiled in this piece below from MLB Pipeline. Here's a quote from Daniel Robertson, a former Major Leaguer now a coach in the Cleveland Guardians organization who's currently coaching in Arizona this fall. It will be interesting to see whether the Royals start Gomez in Low-A Columbia to begin 2027 or push him to High-A Quad Cities. Regardless, expect him to move up to High-A ball at some point next year, whether it's at the beginning or middle of the year. Charles has really struggled this fall, disappointing after his solid, albeit shortened, 2026 campaign in Quad Cities. The former 20th-round pick went hitless this week, and he's hitting just .143 with a .450 OPS in 42 at-bats. He's pulling the ball in the air well, but that's all he's really doing this fall, per his Statcast profile. I still see some upside with Charles, but he may be more of a long-term project, which isn't great news for a guy who's already 22 and currently Rule 5 eligible. Pitchers: Lamkin Carries the Surprise Staff (And Royals Pitching Prospects) Pitching Stats from October 25th to 31st. Lamkin, LHP: 1 G, 4 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 1 BB, 5 K. Hiro Wyatt, RHP: 1 G, 2.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 2 BB, 2 K. Frank Mozzicato, LHP: 2 G, 1.1 IP, 20.25 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 2 BB, 2K. Felix Arronde, RHP: 1 G, 1.0 IP, 18.00 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 1 BB, 3 K. Josh Hansell, RHP: 1 G, 1.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 1 BB, 1 K. Lamkin continues to impress in Surprise and should be representing the Saguaros and the Royals in the Fall Stars game next Saturday. After a one-run performance in four innings of work on October 29th, he now has a 3.52 ERA and 0.78 WHIP with 14 K and just 4 BB in 15.1 IP. When looking at his season TJ Stuff+ summary this fall in Arizona, Lamkin is a conundrum of sorts. On one hand, all the results have been encouraging. He's been above average in zone rate, chase rate, whiff rate, and xwOBACON, which is what one wants to see from a pitching prospect in the AFL. On the other hand, his stuff has rated poorly, with his four-seamer (85 TJ Stuff+ and 30 grade) standing out the most. Even if the TJ Stuff+ metrics trend down this fall, his TJ Stuff+ still ranks in the 10th percentile, which isn't encouraging. It feels like something has to give with Lamkin soon: is his impeccable command and efficiency just dominating raw hitting prospects? Or does Lamkin have some secret sauce with his delivery that helps him overcome poor TJ Stuff+ metrics? The answer will likely come in Double-A Northwest Arkansas, where he will start this season. Wyatt had an encouraging outing last week, allowing no runs in 2.2 innings against Mesa on October 29th. In addition to shutting the Solar Sox out in his relief appearance, he also generated a strong number of whiffs, something we really haven't seen from him this fall. In addition to a 29.4% whiff%, he also had a 0.089 xwOBACON, which shows that Mesa hitters struggled to square him up. He didn't generate much chase (18.5%), and his control was inconsistent (43.8% zone rate), but his 98 overall TJ Stuff+ was solid, with his cutter (107 TJ Stuff+) and slider (112 TJ Stuff+) standing out. Wyatt hasn't advanced beyond Low-A ball, but something about his six-pitch profile makes him an intriguing reliever who could thrive at the Major League level with more seasoning and experience. He definitely is a sleeper worth watching in High-A Quad Cities next year. If Lamkin has been the "good results, poor stuff" arm in Surprise, then Mozzicato may be the "good stuff, poor results" counterpart. In 6 outings and 4.1 IP, the former first-round pick has an 8.31 ERA and 2.31 WHIP with six walks and six strikeouts. Meanwhile, his TJ Stuff+ profile has arguably been the best of any Royals pitcher this fall in Surprise. Mozzicato has a 101 TJ Stuff+, which ranks in the 87th percentile this fall. He also has three pitches with grades over 50, including his four-seamer (56), cutter (56), and changeup (53). That has helped him generate a 36.1% whiff rate and .331 xwOBACON, both respectable marks. It's just that his control has been so bad this fall, as illustrated by his 34.7% zone rate. The control needs to improve quickly if Mozzicato wants any shot at making the Majors in 2027. That said, Mozzicato's profile reminds me a lot of Beck Way. Way struggled with control in the past, but he always had the stuff, and his control finally came together enough in 2026, leading to his MLB debut and a 3.86 ERA in 23.1 IP with the Royals last year. The stuff isn't as high-octane as Way yet, but I think Mozzicato could get there with a larger sample and a clearer bullpen role, which just began last year. The chips are still stacked against Mozzicato, but the stuff is good enough to keep believing in the polarizing pitching prospect. One last arm to talk about is Hansell, who's been good but hasn't been eye-popping in Arizona. He had another "good but not great" week, allowing no runs in his one outing with one strikeout and one walk in one inning of work. Even though his outings aren't "wowing" Royals fans, his body of work this fall looks more impressive. In 5.1 IP, he has a 1.69 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 2.96 FIP, 16% K-BB%, and 71.4% GB%. His TJ Stuff+ profile has also been solid, with his sinker and cutter as plus pitches this fall. Hansell posted a 4.87 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 4.50 FIP in 40.2 IP last year with the River Bandits. While those numbers aren't great, one has to wonder if a full-time move to the bullpen could help his stuff play up, which in turn could lead to better results. The former 16th-round pick was a groundball-heavy pitcher with the River Bandits (48.6% GB%), so Hansell could become a solid middle-innings reliever at the MLB level who gets out of jams by inducing groundball double plays. I'm not sure Hansell has a ton of upside, but his stuff and approach have been solid this fall, and he deserves more consideration from Royals fans in 2027, especially as he moves up to Double-A Northwest Arkansas. Image courtesy of Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports View full article

After the Milwaukee Brewers won their first World Series in franchise history on October 28th, the MLB "quiet period" began the next day, October 29th. During these five days, eligible players become free agents, and teams can begin negotiating with their own players (especially with player, club, or mutual options). However, the free agency period doesn't begin until five days after the World Series ends. This year, the "quiet period" will end at 5 p.m. on Monday, November 2nd. After a 69-93 season, the Royals will likely be aggressive this offseason, most likely in free agency and through the trade market. Kansas City seemed to be making progress as an organization, going 86-76 in 2024 and 82-80 in 2025 after a 56-106 season in 2023, JJ Picollo and Matt Quatraro's first season together as President and Manager. While the Royals saw the emergence of young stars like Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone, they will need to do some serious rebuilding on the pitching end, especially in the bullpen. For a team making lots of moves, the 40-man roster matters. Kansas City already did some purging over the past few days. They non-tendered five pitchers (Alex Lange, Connor Seabold, Alec Marsh, Easton McGee, and Mason Black), allowed four players to walk in free agency (Josh Rojas, Craig Kimbrel, Jonathan India, and Luke Maile), and declined the club option on Carlos Estevez. That leaves the roster currently at 38 players. However, by Monday, all players on the IL need to be added back to the 40-man roster. The Royals have six players currently on the IL (Luinder Avila, Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek, Cole Ragans, Ben Kudrna, and Nick Mears). If they all are returned, that will put the Royals' roster at 44. (Though Mears could be a non-tender candidate, as we talked about here on Royals Keep in our Arbitrary Thoughts series). Thus, the Royals will need to make some cuts to get to or under that 40-man roster limit by Monday. Let's look at three stories about players who could be on the chopping block, and why Kansas City may part ways with them, regardless of their performance this past season. The Expendable Relievers In cases like this, relievers are typically the first to be removed from the 40-man roster. While relievers are important, they are volatile assets, and teams typically purge relievers who lack upside, even if they had a productive season last year. Anthony Gose, Jose Cuas, Connor Thomas, and Mitch Spence all fit that "expendable" profile. Gose and Cuas, both former position players, are easy cuts, even though they are coming off solid 2026 campaigns in Kansas City after not pitching for MLB teams in 2025. In 14 games and 13.2 IP, Gose posted a 0.66 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. His FIP was a little higher at 3.47, mostly due to a paltry K% (13.7%), but he limited walks (3.9% BB%) and limited contact, as evidenced by his Statcast profile via TJ Stats. Gose's stuff profile was also impressive, with an 110 overall TJ Stuff+ that ranked in the 94th percentile. He had two solid pitches, with his four-seamer at 114 TJ Stuff+ and his slider at 105 TJ Stuff+. The stuff on those pitches generates hard hits (99th percentile hard-hit rate) and generates swinging strikes (70th percentile SwStr%). However, the K% didn't necessarily correlate with those other impressive metrics, and his small sample size makes one wonder if Gose would've gotten more exposure with more innings. Another issue with Gose right now is that he lacks Minor League options, and it's unlikely that he would be guaranteed an MLB roster spot. He feels like an easy cut and someone who could command a Minor League deal with an invite to Spring Training, whether it is with the Royals or not. Cuas is in a similar boat as Gose. After not playing in the Majors in 2025, the 32-year-old returned to the Royals organization in Spring Training and rose to the MLB bullpen due to injuries and lackluster performance by the Kansas City relievers. In 24 games and 23.1 IP, Cuas posted a 2.31 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, and 2.89 FIP. He was a better strikeout pitcher than Gose (23.1% K%), but he struggled more with control and didn't have Gose's stuff profile either. Even if Cuas gets released from the 40-man roster, he's seen most of his success as a Major Leaguer with the Royals. So he could return to Kansas City on a Minor-League deal with a Spring Training invite. After a disastrous stint with the Braves early in the 2026 season (21.32 ERA in 6.1 IP), Thomas turned himself around in Kansas City. In 17 appearances and 19.1 IP, he posted a 2.33 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 2.43 FIP. He also sported a 14.1% K-BB%, highlighted by a 3.8% BB%. Thomas doesn't have the most electric stuff profile, but he threw strikes, induced a high number of groundballs, and was efficient on the mound, even if he typically was in low-leverage situations. Thomas is a tougher dilemma because he has two Minor League options remaining. Thus, he may be worth keeping around for depth. However, Thomas also feels like the kind of pitcher the Royals could easily replace via a trade or a cheap minor-league free agent. He may simply be the victim of a crowded roster. The last expendable reliever to talk about is Spence, who barely pitched with Kansas City this year and spent most of the season in Omaha. The 28-year-old righty was lit up in his three appearances with the Royals this year. In 9.1 IP, he posted a 21.21 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 8.89 FIP, and -5.4% K-BB%. He not only struggled to throw strikes, but he got hit hard in his extremely small sample. Spence provided some nice pitching depth in Omaha. He posted a 5.35 ERA in 16 starts and 74 IP with the Storm Chasers. That said, being Triple-A depth isn't worth a spot on the 40-man roster. The "Other" Lugo Likely Gone The Royals claimed outfielder Matthew Lugo off waivers after the Angels designated him for assignment in June. Lugo was a former top prospect who gave the Royals a right-handed bench bat who could play multiple outfield positions. That said, he failed to realize his potential in Anaheim, hitting .232 with a .707 OPS in 70 plate appearances in his MLB debut with the Angels in 2025. With the Storm Chasers, Lugo put up gaudy numbers. In 245 plate appearances, he hit .263 with an .838 OPS. That also included 12 home runs, 39 runs scored, and 39 RBI. Unfortunately, that performance didn't carry over to Kansas City in limited action. In 15 plate appearances, the 2019 second-round pick hit .143 with a .343 OPS. He didn't make much hard contact with the Royals, and he also struggled to make consistent contact, as evidenced by his Statcast percentiles. Again, it was such a small sample size, so it's hard to take too much away. Nonetheless, the Royals had ample opportunities to play Lugo more down the stretch, and they opted not to. That suggests they don't have much long-term confidence in Lugo. Therefore, based on his struggles and limited playing time, the Royals will likely part ways with Lugo, which should open an outfield spot they can fill through free agency or a trade. Is Zobac on the Chopping Block? The Royals had high hopes for Steven Zobac going into last year, adding him to the 40-man roster last offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. However, it's been tough sledding for Zobac since being added to the 40-man. After posting a 7.68 ERA in 36.1 IP with the Naturals in 2025, the former Cal product posted a 4.85 ERA in 42.2 IP with the Naturals in 2026. On the one hand, Zobac improved after his disastrous 2025 Texas League campaign. On the other hand, he was a 26-year-old repeating Double-A, and he should've dominated that competition. On a positive note, his Statcast percentiles were more impressive than his surface-level metrics, which suggests Zobac may be better as a reliever than a starter going forward. Zobac ranked in the 79th percentile in O-Swing%, 74th percentile in SwStr%, and 62nd percentile in BB%. Those are all impressive percentiles, and he could be better with more concentrated work in relief. While Arizona Fall League numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, Zobac's fall campaign wasn't exactly memorable. In 4.1 IP, he posted a 12.46 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, and 6.15 FIP. He struggled with walks, as shown by a 17.4% BB% and a meager 8.7% K-BB%. That said, like his Double-A campaign in 2026, his AFL Statcast metrics were a little more encouraging. With a three-pitch mix, starting just may not be in Zobac's future, whether it's in Kansas City or elsewhere. It also doesn't help that his stuff profile isn't great overall either (98 TJ Stuff+ in AFL, though it did rank in the 68th percentile). That is why I think there's a possible chance the Royals part ways, even though he still has some upside ahead of him. If I had to choose, Zobac is more likely to stay in Kansas City than leave. After all, he hasn't started his Major League clock yet, and he has shown that he can stay healthy this year, which was a goal after dealing with so much injury in 2025. The Royals need a young controllable pitcher who can provide future value, and Zobac still can fit that mold, even if it seems riskier than before. Still, if the Royals cut Zobac by Monday, fans shouldn't be surprised, given how the past year has gone and the club's need to solidify the bullpen with proven pitching talent. Image courtesy of William Purnell-Imagn Images View full article

James McArthur – Right-Handed Relief Pitcher Age on 2027 Opening Day: 30 Service Time: 2.150 2024 Salary: $745,750 2025 Salary: $773,750 2026 Salary: $810,000 (First Year of Arbitration) 2027 MLB Trade Rumors Projection: $800,000 McArthur's Background The Phillies drafted McArthur in the 12th round out of Ole Miss in the 2018 MLB Draft. He gained notoriety as a tall pitcher (6'7) with a big arm who could, at the very least, find a spot in a Major League bullpen. With the Phillies, McArthur got on prospect experts' radars with a solid 2021 Double-A campaign. In 19 games (15 starts) and 74.1 IP, he posted a 4.48 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, and 17.2% K-BB%. While he wasn't a big strikeout guy (24.4% in 2021), he limited walks (7.2% BB%) and induced ground balls (48.3% GB%). As a result, MLB Pipeline ranked him the Phillies' 20th-best prospect in 2022, ahead of Christopher Sanchez (ranked No. 22 at the time). Here's what Pipeline said about the former Ole Miss product in their 2022 scouting report: McArthur struggled in a repeat in Double-A Reading in 2022, posting a 5.05 ERA and 4.99 FIP in 13 starts and 57 IP. After making four more starts in 2023 with Triple-A Lehigh Valley, the Phillies traded McArthur to the Royals for outfield prospect Junior Marin and cash considerations. The Royals quickly moved McArthur to the bullpen, and he found success at both the Minor-League and major-league levels. In 23 appearances and 40.2 IP with the Storm Chasers in 2023, he posted a 3.98 ERA, 3.57 FIP, a 1.28 WHIP, and 19.9% K-BB%. His K% rose to 31.5% in Omaha, and he maintained a solid 48.4% GB%. As a result, the Royals promoted McArthur to the Majors, and despite a rough debut (he gave up seven runs on six hits and one walk in an inning of work against the Guardians), he ended up being the Royals' closer by the end of the 2023 campaign. In 23.1 IP, McArthur posted a 4.63 ERA. However, his FIP was 2.78, with a 0.94 WHIP, 25.6% K%, and 23.3% K-BB%. Furthermore, many of his Statcast percentiles were eye-popping for a rookie, as shown below via TJ Stats. After a stellar 2023 stint, the Royals put him in high-leverage early in 2024, and he started the year well. He posted a 2.63 ERA and 1.63 FIP through April 30th, which included seven saves and a 23.2% K-BB% over 13.2 IP. Unfortunately, he struggled with consistency for the remainder of the season. In 56.2 IP, he posted a 4.92 ERA, 4.17 FIP, and saved 18 games. He was particularly hurt by a high BABIP (.347), low strand rate (66.7% LOB%), and high HR/FB% (16.7%). On a positive note, he still generated a lot of groundballs (53.3% GB%), his FIP was lower than his ERA, and while his batted-ball percentiles weren't great, his strike-based ones were much more encouraging. McArthur's season ended after his September 16th outing when he hit the IL with a grade 1 right UCL sprain and missed the rest of the season (and the postseason). He then ended up getting right elbow olecranon surgery to repair a fractured elbow, which would sideline him for most, if not all, of the 2025 season. While the Royals didn't expect much, if any, time from McArthur in 2025, recovery complications ultimately cost him the 2026 season. During his recovery, doctors discovered that McArthur suffered an allergic reaction to the metal screws inserted during his elbow surgery. This required a second procedure to remove the hardware. As a result, he missed nearly all of last season to recover from the surgery and cleanup procedure. On a positive note, he returned at the end of 2026 for a rehab assignment in Triple-A Omaha. He made four appearances and pitched 3.2 innings with the Storm Chasers. The stats weren't good (7.36 ERA and 7.68 FIP), but he showed solid stuff, a groundball rate, and the ability to extend in his first appearance on the mound in nearly two years. The Royals called him up to the active roster for the final game of the year, but he didn't appear in the season finale. McArthur is expected to be fully healthy and ready for Spring Training. 2026 Stats 4 G, 3.2 IP, 7.36 ERA, 7.68 FIP, 1.36 WHIP, 0.0% K-BB% (Triple-A Omaha). Royals Relief Pitcher Depth 40-man roster: Steven Cruz, Jose Cuas, Connor Thomas, Carlos Duran, Beck Way, Nolan Hoffman, Spencer Bivens Arbitration Eligible: Nick Mears, Daniel Lynch IV, Lucas Erceg, Anthony Gose 2027 Club Option: Carlos Estévez Triple-A: Tyson Guerrero, Augusto Mendieta, Shane Panzini, Luke Little, Ben Sears, Chazz Martinez, Brandon Johnson, Oscar Rayo Why the Royals Should Offer Him Arbitration Because McArthur missed two full years at the Major League level, he will come cheap in arbitration. According to MLB Trade Rumors, his projected arbitration amount is $800,000, $10,000 less than a year ago. For context, Mears ($2.2 million), Alex Lange ($1.7 million), and Alec Marsh ($1.1 million) were expected to command higher amounts this offseason. McArthur is not only cheaper than those three, but he's also more likely to be healthier and/or more effective. While McArthur posted high ERAs in 2023 and 2024 with the Royals, his FIP numbers suggested he's a much better pitcher. The now-30-year-old righty probably isn't a fit for closing situations anymore, but his stuff, ability to generate CSW (31.9% career CSW%), and groundball-inducing style make him an ideal low- to medium-leverage arm who can eat the middle innings. Even in a small sample, McArthur showed decent stuff last year, with his curveball rated as a pretty plus pitch based on TJ Stuff+ and grade numbers. Obviously, McArthur's chase, zone, and whiff rates were all below average in 31 pitches of cup-of-coffee in Omaha. However, this rehab stint was more about process than results. The velocity was fine, the movement was better-than-expected, and he actually did a decent job of limiting hard contact based on xwOBACON (.297). Last year in Omaha, his curveball and slider posted TJ Stuff+ marks of 104 and 100, respectively. His breaking balls have a history of success at the Major League level. In 2024 with the Royals, he posted TJ Stuff+ marks of 110 and 101 on his curve and slider, respectively, and his chase and whiff rates were impressive on those pitches as well, as illustrated below. The Royals need cheap relievers with good stuff to add depth. They also need relievers with Minor League options. Thankfully, McArthur checks off both those boxes. Why the Royals Should Non-Tender Him McArthur has been hurt for two years, and guys who miss that much time can be unpredictable. Kansas City has already decided not to risk Marsh, who has also missed the past two seasons with various shoulder injuries. Considering the number of Royals pitchers on the 40-man roster already expected to miss significant time in 2027 (Cole Ragans, Luinder Avila, and Stephen Kolek), the Royals may feel that McArthur is too much of a risk to bring back, even if there's some upside there. Another issue with McArthur is that he seemed to hit a wall from May through the end of 2024. He went from a promising long-term closer (who can forget McArthur's 9th Infantry Raygun shirt) to a guy only pitchable in mop-up situations. At 30, the Royals may feel more comfortable giving a younger arm with more long-term upside a roster spot than McArthur. Prediction: The Royals Tender McArthur A Contract With Marsh and Lange already gone, McArthur will likely return to Kansas City for at least one more year. There are too many reasons to keep him: his $800,000 projected salary barely dents the payroll, he still has a Minor League option, and he's shown enough to succeed at the MLB level. Now, just because the Royals tender McArthur a deal doesn't mean he'll stay on the Royals roster all of 2027 or even stay on the 40-man roster after Spring Training. If McArthur struggles in Spring Training, he could be a roster casualty, especially if a non-roster invitee shows he could earn a roster spot. With 2027 being a crucial year for this organization, they need pitchers they can depend on, and I'm not sure the Royals feel 100 percent confident in McArthur just yet after his long layoff. Still, the former closer deserves a spot in Spring Training to show what he can do. He has the profile to be a key part of this Kansas City bullpen in 2027, and he could slide into higher-leverage situations if he stays healthy and productive early in the season. His breaking balls (curveball and slider) have always rated well, and there's no reason to think they won't still be effective in 2027. It's totally plausible to experience a similar turnaround to Taylor Clarke in 2025. Clarke was a much-maligned Royals reliever in 2023 who returned in 2025 and produced a productive campaign in Kansas City. A similar success story could be due for "The General" in the upcoming season. Image courtesy of Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports View full article

The Arizona Fall League just completed its third week of play, which means we're nearing the end of the season. The Saguaros are 10-8, good for third in the AFL behind Scottsdale (11-7) and Peoria (11-8). For a third straight week, the Kansas City Royals prospects have done pretty well in the AFL, capturing the attention of both prospect experts and Royals fans. While this was not a great past season for Kansas City, the strong play of Royals prospects in Arizona should give hope that the future is bright for the Royals long term. For those who missed the previous editions, you can find previous coverage at Royals Keep from week one here and week two here. Hitters: Bryan Stands Out for the Saguaros Royals hitting stats from October 20th to October 27th Zion Rose, OF: 13 AB, .308/.400/.308, 1 R, 2 RBI, 2 SB. Brooks Bryan, C: 11 AB, .273/.429/.549, 3 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI. Angeibel Gomez, OF: 8 AB, .375/.444/.625, 1 R, 1 RB, 2 2B, 2 SB. Austin Charles, 3B/SS: 10 AB, .100/.100/.100, 1 H, 4 K. The catching prospect out of Troy University had a solid week at the plate in week three after a down week in week two. The former 2025 draft pick hit a home run, drove in four runs, and posted a .974 OPS. Bryan has shown a patient approach at the plate with three walks to four strikeouts. He also uses his plate discipline well, pouncing on hittable balls for power when he gets the chance. Jared Perkins and I talked about this on the latest episode of Royals Pipeline, but Bryan is doing his best to make No. 4 prospect Blake Mitchell expendable this offseason. In 33 games and 138 plate appearances with the Fireflies last year, Bryan hit .319 with three homers, 24 RBI, a .902 OPS, and a 0.59 BB/K ratio. Injuries limited his plate appearances in 2026, but this fall he's showing he's healthy and ready to break out in 2027. Gomez has captured prospect experts' attention this fall in all the right ways. Over the past seven days, Gomez hit .375, posted a 1.069 OPS, and hit two doubles. He also stole two bases. This fall, Gomez is hitting .333 with a .906 OPS in the AFL at 17, which is wild to think about. On Tuesday, he hit another key run-scoring hit with runners in scoring position early against Peoria. He continues to show Royals fans he isn't overwhelmed by the competition in Arizona. Rose saw his power dip a bit this week. He didn't hit any extra-base hits and posted a .308 slugging percentage. However, the Royals' 2026 first-round pick continues to hit for average (.308), post strong OBP numbers (.400), and terrorize the basepaths (two stolen bases). With a .306 average, .912 OPS, and five stolen bases this fall, Rose is showing that he's a candidate for an early promotion to Double-A Northwest Arkansas in 2027. Charles had another rough week for the Saguaros, disappointing after showing some power progress in week two. The former 20th-round pick collected just one base hit in 10 at-bats and struck out four times, with zero walks. This season in the AFL, he is hitting .154 with a .483 OPS in 39 at-bats, tied for second-most among Surprise hitters this fall. He also has 13 strikeouts and hasn't drawn a single walk. The Royals still have time to be patient with Charles, but the talented infield prospect has had a disappointing fall (though the at-bats are nice considering all the time he missed due to injury over the past two years). Pitchers: Arronde Makes His 2026 AFL Debut Royals pitching stats from October 20th to 27th Justin Lamkin, LHP: 1 G, 4.1 IP, 0 BB, 4 K, 0.00 ERA, and 0.00 WHIP. Felix Arronde, RHP: 1 G, 1.0 IP, 1 BB, 3 K, 18.00 ERA, and 3.00 WHIP. Hiro Wyatt, RHP: 1 G, 2.1 IP, 0 BB, 1 K, 3.86 ERA, and 1.29 WHIP. Josh Hansell, RHP: 1 G, 0.2 IP, 0 BB, 0 K, 13.50 ERA, and 3.00 WHIP. Frank Mozzicato, LHP: 1 G, 0.1 IP, 0 BB, 1 K, 0.00 ERA, and 0.00 WHIP. Lamkin, our No. 12 prospect, had a phenomenal outing in week three and earned AFL Pitcher of the Week honors. The former Texas A&M product retired all 13 batters he faced and struck out four. While his stuff wasn't overwhelming, Lamkin showed excellent command and control against the Solar Sox, with 40 of his 52 pitches being strikes. Lamkin has looked stronger with each outing this fall. After reaching Double-A last year, Lamkin will likely start the 2027 season with the Naturals. His stuff will be worth watching (his four-seamer rates as below average on most Stuff metrics). However, his command and efficiency may be good enough to help him reach the Majors at some point next season. Arronde, the No. 16 prospect at Royals Keep, made his AFL debut on Tuesday, October 27th. He replaced Steven Zobac on the Surprise roster, who appears done for the rest of the fall. Zobac posted a 12.46 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in 4.1 IP. In his debut, the 23-year-old righty gave up two runs on two hits and one walk. However, he struck out three and generated a 50% whiff rate. Arronde's cutter was a positive pitch stuff-wise (101 TJ Stuff+), but the rest of his profile was unimpressive (94 TJ Stuff+ overall). He did produce a strong whiff rate and a .321 xwOBACON, but he struggled to throw consistent strikes (48.4% zone rate) and didn't generate much chase (12.5%). Arronde is coming off a brutal 2026 season in Northwest Arkansas, posting a 6.49 ERA and 6.85 FIP in 105.1 IP with the Naturals. If the Royals want to move Arronde quicker, they may be better off moving him to the bullpen full time. Tuesday's outing showed that shorter stints may suit him better anyways. Wyatt had a stronger outing on October 21st, allowing one earned run on three hits and no walks while striking out one (he did hit two batters). Wyatt's stuff looked much better in his latest outing, with three pitches earning TJ Stuff+ marks of 100 or higher. Wyatt isn't a whiff-or-chase machine, and he struggled to find the zone in his last outing (40.5% zone rate). But he throws a bunch of pitches (six) and minimizes hard contact (.307 xwOBACON). Wyatt could be a Seth Lugo-esque reliever, though he needs more time to mature in the Minors (he hasn't advanced beyond Low-A). Hansell had another mediocre week, allowing a run on two hits in 0.2 IP. Mozzicato made only one appearance this week and recorded just one out. However, he struck out a batter and got some whiffs in his one outing against Salt River, in which he relied heavily on his four-seamer (six of his seven pitchers were four-seamers). This fall, Mozzicato has a 2.70 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, and 31.3% K% in 3.1 IP. He's struggling with control (25% BB% and 6.3% K-BB%), and he's not generating many ground balls (essential for a reliever), but his stuff has been pretty solid in Arizona, as his AFL Season Summary via TJ Stats shows. Even though he has a paltry zone (34.8%) and low chase (18.6%), he has made up for it with strong whiff (34.8%) and xwOBACON (.229) metrics. Add that to a 100 TJ Stuff+ (three pitches graded over 50), and you can see Mozzicato due for a sneaky 2027 campaign out of the bullpen (as long as he can improve his control somewhat). Image courtesy of USA Baseball View full article

On Friday, the Royals outrighted five pitchers off the 40-man roster: Easton McGee, Connor Seabold, Alex Lange, Mason Black, and Alec Marsh. McGee and Seabold immediately opted for free agency, which isn't surprising since they got little opportunity in Kansas City and were both acquired mid-season. Lange opted to stay in Kansas City and was outrighted to Omaha. Black was also sent to Omaha, but that was more because he didn't have enough MLB service time to opt for free agency. The only question mark in that group initially was Marsh, who hadn't pitched since 2024 because of injuries and surgery on his right shoulder. On Saturday, KC Star Royals beat writer Jaylon Thompson reported that Marsh would opt for free agency. Marsh's decision ends his tenure with the Royals, whom the righty has played his entire professional career with. Marsh showed flashes of brilliance and upside, and in 2024 he seemed on track to become a dependable arm in the Kansas City rotation for years to come. Unfortunately, like many talented pitchers, injuries decimated Marsh, and his professional future in general looks questionable after two lost seasons. So let's look at how Marsh's career started promising, how things changed when Matt Quatraro and Brian Sweeney came to Kansas City, and whether Marsh still has anything left in the tank to impress an interested MLB team this offseason. Marsh Showed Promise and Potential As A Prospect Out of College The Royals selected Marsh in the 2019 MLB Draft with the 70th overall pick in the competitive round. Marsh succeeded in his final season at Arizona State, a baseball powerhouse. In 17 games (16 starts) and 101.1 IP, Marsh posted a 3.46 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and a 2.75 K/BB ratio, striking out 99. Many scouts liked Marsh's four-pitch mix, fastball cut, and competitiveness on the mound. Marsh dominated rookie ball in 2019 with Idaho Falls in the short-season Pioneer League. He posted a 4.05 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 25.8% K-BB% in 13 games and 33.1 IP for the Chukars. Unfortunately, he didn't pitch in the minor leagues in 2020 due to the COVID pandemic, but he got some work at the Alternate Site that season. MLB Pipeline ranked Marsh as the No. 12 prospect in the Royals' system in 2021, but he struggled to adjust to Double-A pitching in 2022. After posting a 4.97 ERA, 3.87 FIP, and 27.4% K-BB% in 25.1 IP with the Naturals in 2021, his ERA jumped to 7.32 in 114.1 IP. While he still struck out guys in bunches (27.4% K%), he struggled with the long ball, as shown by a 20.6% HR/FB% allowed. As a result, many experts and Royals fans wondered whether he had the "stamina" to start at the MLB level. Marsh showed progress in Northwest Arkansas and the Minors in general in 2023. In 47.1 IP with the Naturals, he posted a 5.32 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, which aren't great on the surface. However, his 4.08 FIP was more impressive, and he lowered his HR/FB% to 10%. He also did much better in a promotion to Omaha, posting a 2.40 ERA, 3.51 FIP, and 18.2% K-BB% in 15 IP. Because of this strong Triple-A showing, Marsh earned a promotion to Kansas City on June 30th. Rough Rookie Debut With Royals, But Solid Sophomore Season As the Royals went through a rebuilding season under first-year manager Quatraro, Marsh got time in the Kansas City rotation and bullpen. He made 17 appearances (8 starts) and pitched 74.1 innings in 2023. Unfortunately, his first exposure to Major League hitters yielded mixed results. The former Sun Devil posted a 5.69 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 5.70 FIP, and 13.5% K-BB%. Home runs plagued him, as he gave up an HR/FB% of 18.4%. Only Josh Taylor, Jonathan Heasley, and Tucker Davidson posted higher marks in that category that season. However, despite the mediocre surface-level numbers, Marsh showed promise in many of his Stacast categories, especially K%, Swinging Strike%, and CSW%. With a six-pitch mix that included three above-average offerings, the Royals kept him in the rotation in 2024 as long as he made adjustments. Under Sweeney and assistant pitching coach Zach Bove, Marsh made the right adjustments and thrived during the Royals' 86-76 season, especially early in the year. In his first nine starts and 50 IP, Marsh posted a 3.24 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 1.06 WHIP, and 14.4% K-BB%. He regressed over the rest of the season, with his ERA rising to 4.53 in 26 games (25 starts) and 129 IP. That said, he showed positive progress over a larger sample of innings, with his strikeout, whiff, and CSW numbers remaining solid despite the issues with barrel and hard-hit rates allowed. The Royals had Marsh throw a little more horizontally in 2024, which explained the improvement. His average arm angle went from 37 degrees in 2023 to 32 degrees in 2024. While his whiff and chase rates fell, his TJ Stuff+, xwOBACON, and zone rate improved, as shown in the TJ Stuff+ comparison below. Marsh became less of a strikeout artist in 2024 and more of a complete pitcher, which is what the Royals needed at the bottom of the rotation during their playoff season. Shoulder Injuries Decimate Marsh's 2025 and 2026 Seasons Marsh was durable in 2023 and 2024, aside from a short IL stint for a minor elbow contusion from a comebacker against the Blue Jays on April 24th. Unfortunately, the injuries piled up in 2025, starting as early as Spring Training. He experienced shoulder tightness early in Spring Workouts, which delayed his start. When he returned, he developed right shoulder impingement, and the Royals placed him on the 60-Day IL on March 24th, further delaying his season start. After being put on the IL, Marsh went through a merry-go-round of rehab that proved unsuccessful. He suffered multiple setbacks in extended Spring Training and was eventually shut down from throwing in early July. Marsh received cortisone shots in late July, but it seemed to make no difference, and he ended up being shut down for the remainder of the year. In early November, Marsh ended up getting labrum repair surgery after it was deemed that conservative treatment was not enough. That decision also effectively ended his 2026 season due to the long rehab process associated with such surgeries. While he recovered from shoulder surgery, Marsh made little progress in 2026. Rehabs from such surgeries are grueling, and the Royals were pretty silent about Marsh's progress throughout the season. That contrasted with other pitchers who missed considerable time, such as James McArthur, who also missed all of 2025 and 2026 due to surgery. McArthur ended up pitching in Double-A and suited up for the Royals in the series finale. Why the Royals Let Marsh Go and What He Could Offer After two missed seasons and radio silence about his rehab, the Royals likely felt Marsh was too big a risk to bring back for 2027. Expectations are higher in 2027 after a disappointing 2026 campaign, and injuries to Cole Ragans, Luinder Avila, Ryan Bergert, and Stephen Kolek last season already gutted the pitching depth. They can't afford to have a questionable Marsh sit on the 40-man roster when they need a pitcher who can contribute at the MLB level immediately. Even though Marsh has Minor League options and wouldn't be expensive (he likely would've commanded under $1 million in arbitration), Kansas City decided to let him go and find other options in his place, internally or externally via free agency or trade. If healthy, the former Arizona State product could be a decent reliever. That's why the Royals held onto him for so long, even though he didn't pitch at all in the past two seasons. Before his injury, Marsh's pitch quality was great, with five pitches earning TJ Stuff+ marks of 100 or higher in 2024. His curveball was a nasty offering that generated a 32.7% chase rate and could be a put-away pitch in more limited innings. Below is an example of his curve not only inducing Baltimore's Gunnar Henderson to chase, but also to strike out. ZFpidzZfWGw0TUFRPT1fVkFkWlZ3QURYbEVBQUFBRlZ3QUFBVmRXQUZsWEJ3QUFBbEZUQUZkVVZRQUdBZ1pR.mp4 To be honest, if healthy, Marsh was worth bringing back, despite the layoff. His stuff and profile are intriguing, especially in a relief role. Given the Royals' bullpen struggles last year (29th in bullpen ERA and 30th in bullpen WHIP), Marsh could've been a cheap internal option who could've developed into a higher-leverage option with more experience. That said, I don't think Marsh has been healthy for a while, and his outlook for 2027 probably wasn't optimistic either. With a new training staff coming to Kansas City and a questionable rehab history, Marsh would probably be better off starting anew with a different organization, should he get that opportunity. Will he get the opportunity, however? That remains to be seen, and his progress this winter could determine whether he lands a spot on a Spring Training roster in February (if we start on time, of course). For now, Marsh will simply be an intriguing former Royals story who had the potential to be something special in the long term, but injuries robbed him of that opportunity. Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-Imagn Images View full article

On Saturday, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that the New York Yankees could be interested in acquiring Kansas City second baseman Michael Massey. MLB Trade Rumors highlighted his report in their Yankees Note roundup. Jazz Chisholm Jr., the Yankees' regular second baseman in 2026, will be a free agent this offseason, and New York likely won't bring him back. They have internal options like Anthony Volpe and Jose Caballero, but it seems they want to upgrade beyond those two. The Yankees could pursue a trade for Xavier Edwards or Ketel Marte, both of whom have been rumored as Yankees targets in the past. That said, Massey could be a better option because of his cost, stellar defense, and lefty swing, which fits Yankee Stadium's lefty-friendly right-field porch. Here's what Anthony Franco of MLBTR said about the Massey rumor: Massey had a career year for the Royals in 2026 after being plagued by injuries in 2025. In 131 games (a career-high) and 452 plate appearances, Massey hit .274 with a .735 OPS. He also hit 13 home runs, scored 49 runs, drove in 50 RBI, and stole 3 bases. The former Illinois product also earned his first Gold Glove nomination for his second base defense. Massey doesn't walk much (4.7% BB%), but he doesn't strike out and puts the ball in play. His barrel and hard-hit rates are slightly below average, but his profile could fit in New York, especially considering the home ballpark and lineup around him. If the Royals trade Massey to the Yankees, they'll likely ask for pitching help in return. Under GM Brian Cashman, the Yankees have been a pitching factory, so they can afford to part with some arms this offseason. Two options that could make sense for Kansas City are Will Warren and Clarke Schmidt. Warren accumulated a 2.2 fWAR last year and sported a 3.92 ERA with 158 strikeouts in 156 IP. However, he's projected to be the Yankees' No. 5 starter next year, and the Yankees have talented arms on the 40-man roster, Elmer Rodriguez and Brendan Beck, who could replace him. As for Schmidt, he missed most of 2026 due to injury. However, he posted a 2.85 ERA in 85.1 IP in 2024 and a 3.32 ERA in 78.2 IP in 2025. Although he made only one appearance in 2026, Schmidt's stuff profiled very similarly to Warren's, based on TJ Stuff+ metrics. More players would likely be involved in a trade involving Massey and Warren or Schmidt. However, this kind of trade could be a win-win for both organizations, especially if Maikel Garcia or Nick Loftin could slide over to the keystone to replace Massey in 2027. View full rumor

On Friday afternoon, MLB Trade Rumors reported that the team outrighted pitchers Mason Black, Alec Marsh, Alex Lange, Connor Seabold, and Easton McGee from the 40-man roster. As expected, no one claimed any of the five players. According to Trade Rumors, McGee and Seabold have elected free agency. Marsh and Lange are eligible, but haven't officially done so yet. Black isn't eligible for free agency yet due to service-time requirements. The Royals could keep him in the Minor Leagues for the upcoming season, even though he will not be on the 40-man roster. Seabold and McGee didn't get much time in Kansas City in 2026 after the Royals acquired them midseason from Toronto and Milwaukee, respectively. Seabold posted a 9.00 ERA in five outings and five innings, and McGee posted an 8.68 ERA in seven outings and 9.1 innings. Marsh had a promising 2024 season, posting a 4.53 ERA in 26 games (25 starts) and 129 IP. He also posted a 15.3% K-BB% and a 4.34 FIP in 2024. However, he's dealt with shoulder issues (including surgery) over the past two seasons and hasn't thrown a pitch in the Majors or Minors since the end of the 2024 season. Little has been shared about his rehab, which explains why the Royals were willing to outright him off the 40-man roster. Lange is a local product from Lee's Summit who struggled in his first season with the Royals after spending time in the Tigers and Cubs organizations previously. In 59 games and 60 IP, he posted a 6.75 ERA and 5.87 FIP. He did save 10 games, tying for the second-most among Royals relievers last season. That said, he also had three blown saves and a -1.1 fWAR, the second-lowest fWAR among Royals pitchers (only Matt Strahm was worse). Lange was out of Minor League options, and he likely won't be guaranteed a bullpen spot in Spring Training. The last pitcher outrighted was Black, who came over to the Royals from San Francisco in a trade last offseason (Kansas City traded pitcher Logan Martin to the Giants). In 17 outings and 31.1 IP, the 26-year-old posted a 4.31 ERA, but his FIP was much worse at 6.48. This was mainly due to a paltry 13.4% K% and -0.7% K-BB%. Many of his Statcast percentiles weren't impressive last year either, as TJ Stats shows below. Black will likely return to the Royals organization because of his lack of service time, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Kansas City use him in a trade for cash assets. While Black has a diverse pitch repertoire (seven pitches), he has struggled to produce an effective mix at the Major League level, both with the Royals and the Giants. The Royals' 40-man roster is now at 37 players. View full rumor

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect The Columbia Fireflies had a peculiar season, leaning heavily on 2025 Draft picks and recently signed International talent. While they didn't make the Carolina League postseason, they had the second-best record of the Royals' full-season affiliates at 64-65. The Fireflies roster looked much more impressive at the start of the year, with Kendry Chourio as the ace of the Columbia rotation. As expected, however, he was promoted to Quad Cities, and the rotation simply didn't have the juice it did earlier in the season when he anchored it. Offensively, catcher Brooks Bryan, a 2025 8th-round draft pick out of Troy, showed promise, hitting .319 with a .902 OPS. That said, injury limited him to just 33 games and 119 plate appearances. Thankfully, Bryan is getting more at-bats in the Arizona Fall League, and he's looked impressive, as shown by his first AFL home run on Tuesday. One has to wonder what the Fireflies' playoff chances would've looked like if those two stayed in Columbia all season (like Blake Mitchell and David Shields in Quad Cities). Even though roster turnover was more common in Columbia than Quad Cities, the Fireflies were one of the more intriguing teams to follow in the Royals system. The talent is still raw, but some high-upside players from this group could impact the Royals' 40-man roster in 3-4 years. Three players who earned Royals Keep awards come from the 2025 MLB Draft, and another was a highly touted 2024 International signing out of the Dominican Republic. Royals fans shouldn't be surprised if these four make noise in the Midwest League in 2027, perhaps pushing for call-ups to the Northwest League by season's end. For those who are just discovering this Royals Keep Minor League Awards series, you can find previous posts below: Omaha Storm Chasers Northwest Arkansas Naturals Quad Cities River Bandits Hitter of the Year: Josh Hammond, SS Hammond, the 28th overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, had a solid professional debut in Columbia as a 19-year-old regular infielder. In 110 games and 487 plate appearances, he slashed .286/.354/.389 with a .743 OPS. The power waned a bit, especially in the second half of the season. His ISO was just .103, and he hit only five home runs. That said, he showed solid contact skills, a decent plate approach (0.49 BB/K ratio), and excellent baserunning (25 stolen bases) and defense. As a result, the Royals organization awarded him the Alex Gordon Heart and Hustle Award. Power is a concern, but Hammond showed all the other skills you would want to see from a top prospect in his first MLB experience. Hammond didn't whiff (91st percentile Whiff%) and didn't strike out much either (77th percentile K%) in Columbia. For a young player in their first full-season professional experience, that contact ability is encouraging, as it should follow him as he moves up the Royals' system. He'll likely get bigger and stronger this offseason, which will help him handle a full Minor League season better in 2027 (most likely in High-A Quad Cities). Power matures as a player gets older, so Hammond has plenty of time to develop it. Now, will Hammond be a 30+ HR hitter? Most likely not. However, with his speed, defense, and contact, he could develop into a 20+ HR hitter, which would be incredibly valuable for an infielder who can play third, shortstop, and second base at the Major League level (maybe the outfield as well, if necessary). The numbers aren't gaudy, but the scouting reports, combined with decent numbers, were encouraging signs for Hammond as he enters this offseason. Many experts view Hammond as a Top-5 prospect in the Royals system and a Top-100 guy. So Royals fans should look forward to what the 20-year-old does in Quad Cities, as he could jump up the prospect rankings next year if his power matures in the Midwest League. Pitcher of the Year: Michael Lombardi, RHP A second-round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft out of Tulane, Lombardi made the transition to full-time pitching for the first time in his baseball career. The 22-year-old Green Wave product was a two-way player in college and only pitched 42 innings in his final season at Tulane in 2024. Lombardi thrived after moving to full-time pitching. He led all Fireflies pitchers with 124 strikeouts despite pitching only 88 innings. For context, Darwin Rodriguez, Jose Gutierrez, and Shane Van Dam all threw more innings than Lombardi, but they didn't come close to the Tulane product's strikeout total. In swing-and-miss, Lombardi was Columbia's best pitcher. His 68th-percentile O-Swing%, 93rd-percentile K%, and 59th-percentile whiff% only confirmed that. In addition to leading the Fireflies, Lombardi led all the Carolina League in strikeouts, despite not hitting the 100-inning mark this season. Lombardi broke down late in the year, which is why we didn't see a late-season call-up to Quad Cities. In 55.1 IP from April to June, he posted a 2.44 ERA, posted a 36.3% K%, and a 21.5%% K-BB%. However, from July to the end of the season, his ERA inflated to 5.79, his K% fell to 25.5%, and his K-BB% also regressed to 14.1%. He just wasn't efficient after June, which led to shorter outings and fewer strikeouts. Lombardi's no question a thrower who can rack up strikeouts. That should guarantee him a bullpen role in the near future, at the very least. That said, can Lombardi clean up the command and become more efficient in 2027? If he wants to stay a starter in Quad Cities and beyond, he will need to improve that command, or he'll be relegated to the bullpen sooner rather than later. Biggest Riser: Yandel Ricardo, SS/2B Ricard is our No. 11 prospect at Royals Keep, and fellow infielder Hammond seemed to overshadow Ricardo for most of last year. However, the Dominican product demonstrated that he needs to be taken more seriously as a prospect. In 109 games and 458 plate appearances, the 2024 international signing slashed .266/.351/.398 with a .750 OPS. He also hit seven home runs, stole 27 bases, and posted a 0.53 BB/K ratio. In many ways, Ricardo was just as good as Hammond, if not better, in many areas (and he was just as old as Hammond). Even though he didn't hit for tremendous power (.132 ISO), Ricardo has a ton of natural power in his frame. When he locked in and connected, he could put serious exit velocity behind balls, as this one below shows. Now, Ricardo's defense isn't as elite as Hammond's, and Ricardo's base stealing could be more efficient (caught 16 times last year). However, the Dominican product has five-tool talent and could be a utility player who can play not just every infield position, but outfield as well. The tools are legitimate, and you could argue Ricardo is a Top-10 prospect in the Royals system today. Ricardo has shown a strong ability to bounce back in the Minors, which speaks to his makeup and attitude. He had a tough first month in 2026 and struggled in a limited 2025 stint with Columbia (.547 OPS in 200 PA). However, he locked in, adopted an "all-fields" hitting approach, and delivered in bunches in 2026 with the Fireflies. If he can carry this approach and mindset to High-A Quad Cities in 2027, he could be on track to join the Royals' 40-man roster by December 2028, when he is Rule-5 eligible. However, a strong 2027 could prompt the Royals to add him to the roster by Spring Training in 2028, putting him ahead of schedule for his MLB debut. Most Intriguing Prospect: Sean Gamble, OF The Royals' first selection in the 2025 MLB Draft had a brutal start in Columbia. In 46 games in April and May, he hit .149 with a .474 OPS, a 0.36 BB/K ratio, and a .074 ISO. He struggled to make consistent contact and didn't hit for much power either. At one point, the rookie outfielder seemed destined for a demotion to the Complex League. However, the Fireflies showed patience with Gamble, and it paid off in June and July. In 190 plate appearances in June and July, Gamble hit .268 with a .788 OPS, a 0.52 BB/K ratio, and a .134 ISO. He seemed like a much different hitter during those two months and, at times, arguably looked better than Hammond, especially in power. In addition to hitting seven home runs in 2026, he also scored 62 runs and stole 38 bases on 45 attempts. Gamble also played strong outfield defense and could be a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder, a major asset for the Royals, especially with Kyle Isbel's future murky after this season. Gamble did fade in August and September. In 96 plate appearances, he hit .198 with a .629 OPS and .123 ISO. The BB/K ratio was still strong at 0.52, and the BABIP was low at .263 over those last two months. Thus, it may have been an issue of Gamble running out of gas down the stretch, much like his draft classmate Hammond. The former IMG Academy product adds intrigue to this Royals system, even as our No. 5 Royals prospect. His overall numbers from last season aren't great (6th-percentile wOBA and 25th-percentile TJ Bat+). However, he looked like a much different player from June to the end of the year, and he showed confidence in August and September, even though the numbers weren't impressive. Gamble was a key part of a Fireflies team that fought for playoff position until the very end. The big question for Gamble in 2027 is whether he can avoid a slow start in Quad Cities. If he can, Gamble may prove to be a Top-3 prospect because of his strong defensive and baserunning tools. If he can't? Then Gamble may just be another example of a failed first-round Royals Draft Pick, which has been far too common since 2015. View full article

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect Week two of the Arizona Fall League just concluded, with the Surprise Saguaros improving their record to 8-4. After a slow start in week one, many Royals prospects performed much better in week two, seemingly adjusting to the pitching and Arizona environment. Each week during the AFL season, we will recap the top Royals prospect performances at Royals Keep. If you missed our Week 1 edition, you can find it here. Let's break down the top Royals hitting and pitching standouts from this last week of AFL play. Hitting: Rose, Charles, and Gomez Have Standout Weeks Royals hitters from October 12-19: Brooks Bryan, C: 10 AB, .100/.182/.100, 1 H, 1 RBI, 2 R, 1 BB, 2 K. Zion Rose, OF: 10 AB, .500/.688/.800, 5 H, 5 RBI, 6 R, 4 BB, 4 K, 1 HR, 1 SB. Austin Charles, 3B/SS: .333/.300/.889, 3 H, 5 RBI, 2 R, 0 BB, 4 K, 1 3B, 1 HR. Angeibel Gomez, OF: 7 AB, .286/.444/.571, 2 H, 1 RB, 2 R, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 3B. After a strong week one performance, Bryan cooled off a bit. He went 1-for-10, drew a walk, and scored two runs. However, the other Royals position-player prospects excelled at the plate in Arizona this past week. Rose was the biggest standout this week with five hits and five RBI. He hit his first AFL home run, a grand slam against the Desert Dogs on October 15th. After finally showing power last week, Rose also displayed his trademark plate approach. He struck out four times but walked four times, posting an insane .688 OBP. The former Louisville product is looking increasingly comfortable at the plate, which should set him up for a return to High-A Quad Cities in 2027, with the hope of an early promotion to Double-A. Charles has been one of the most intriguing prospects in the Royals' system, as I talked about in the Quad Cities awards piece on Royals Keep last week. Like Rose, the 22-year-old infielder had a slow start in week one, but he is starting to lock things down at the plate, as shown by a much stronger week two. He hit .333 with three hits, five RBI, a triple, and a home run. Even though his average is .172 and his OPS is .581, Charles is definitely trending in the right direction at the plate. The power and upside remain legitimate. Lastly, after a rough three-strikeout debut, the 17-year-old Gomez is locked in at the plate. In seven at-bats, he hit .286 with a .444 OBP, two hits, two walks, and two runs scored. He also struck out only once, showing how much more comfortable he is at the plate now that the "AFL hype" has died down a bit. The Royals' top international prospect also collected his first extra-base hit on October 14th, a triple. The power is starting to develop, and Gomez seems more willing to let loose with his swing after looking a little nervous in his first couple of games. Doing this despite being younger than most high school seniors is impressive and could signal he's ready for a High-A call-up in 2027, which is wild to think about. Pitching: Lamkin Bounces Back Royals pitchers from October 12-19: Justin Lamkin: 1 G, 4 IP, 2.25 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 1 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 3 K. Josh Hansell: 2 G, 1.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2.40 WHIP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 4 K. Hiro Wyatt: 1 G, 1.2 IP, 27.00 ERA, 4.80 WHIP, 4 H, 5 R, 4 BB, 2 K. Steven Zobac: 1 G, 1.2 IP, 21.60 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 1 H, 4 R, 4 BB, 2 K. Frank Mozzicato: 1 G, 0.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K. The Royals' pitchers had a mixed week in the AFL. Hansell, Wyatt, and Zobac all struggled with control, allowing 11 walks in five innings. Hansell avoided damage (no earned runs allowed), while Wyatt and Zobac weren't as fortunate. Together, the two pitchers allowed nine runs. Zobac is the most concerning, especially since he is on the 40-man roster. Although he was coming off an injury the previous season, he had a mediocre campaign in Double-A Northwest Arkansas (4.85 ERA in 42.2 IP). In his last AFL outing against Peoria, he generated whiffs (35.3% whiff rate) but struggled with control and inducing chases. If Zobac doesn't turn things around this fall, he could lose his 40-man roster spot by Spring Training. At 26, he doesn't have much time to show what he can do in the Minors. Moving to the bullpen full-time may be his best bet not only to keep his 40-man roster spot, but also to earn a spot on the active roster at some point in 2027. His three-pitch mix fits better in the bullpen anyways. On a positive note, Lamkin bounced back with a nice performance on October 15th against the Glendale Desert Dogs. After giving up five runs in three innings in his AFL debut, he allowed only one run in four innings in this latest outing. Lamkin did an excellent job of generating whiffs (30.8% whiff rate) and minimizing hard contact (.311 xwOBACON), which was his MO in Quad Cities and Northwest Arkansas last year and at Texas A&M previously. That said, his stuff hasn't profiled well so far this fall, via TJ Stuff+ metrics. In his last outing, he had an 88 TJ Stuff+ overall, including an 81 TJ Stuff+ on his four-seamer, which is EXTREMELY subpar. Some Statcast metrics have been a little off this fall at some ballparks, which could explain Lamkin's lackluster stuff numbers. However, this will be something to watch in 2027, especially as he returns to Double-A Northwest Arkansas. If the stuff remains subpar, he'll likely be closer to a Daniel Lynch IV type than a Cole Ragans type. With the Royals rotation so decimated by injuries last year, it would be nice for Lamkin to profile closer to the latter than the former, especially if they want to return to the postseason in 2027. Adding Lamkin to the Kansas City rotation mix next year would help a team that needs success from its homegrown arms. View full article

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images The Quad Cities River Bandits were the Royals' most successful affiliate in 2026. The River Bandits went 70-57, good for second in the West Division. However, they beat the first-place South Bend Cubs in the playoffs and then defeated East Division champ Dayton Dragons in the championship to win the Midwest League title. While the River Bandits were an excellent team, they also featured the Royals organization's best prospects. Six of the Royals organization's top-10 prospects played in Quad Cities at some point in 2026. That showed Davenport, Iowa, was a hotbed for Royals fans who loved prospect watching, whether on MiLB.TV or in person at Modern Woodsmen Park. So, who stuck out on this championship team in 2026? Let's take a look at the hitter and pitcher of the year, the biggest riser, and the most intriguing prospect from Quad Cities last season. Hitter of the Year: Blake Mitchell, C Mitchell had a tough 2025 season in High-A Quad Cities. After breaking a hamate bone in Spring Training, he proceeded to hit only .207 with a .668 OPS in 216 plate appearances. The biggest disappointment, however, was his two home runs, which were 16 fewer than he hit in Columbia in 2024. While he still got on base often in 2025 (.372 OBP), his lack of power dampened his prospect outlook. Thankfully, the power came back considerably in 2026. In 511 plate appearances, Mitchell hit 23 home runs and posted an .873 OPS. While his batting average wasn't high (.234) and strikeouts remained a concern (34% K%), he proved to be a three-true-outcomes hitter in all the right ways with the River Bandits last season. In fact, his power came through in the postseason, as his home run against Dayton in Game Two clinched the Midwest League championship for Quad Cities. However, it's interesting that Andrew Fischer of the Brewers is seen as one of the better hitters in Minor League Baseball when his profile is just as flawed as Mitchell's, as shown below in his Statcast Percentiles summary via TJ Stats. Of course, Fischer did this in Double-A, while Mitchell posted these metrics in High-A. However, I think Mitchell can be a serviceable backup catcher in the Mike Zunino or Austin Hedges mold at the very least, despite his swing-and-miss-heavy profile. Despite the expectations and deflated stock going into 2026, Mitchell stepped up and became the River Bandits' most impactful hitter. Let's hope this performance carries over to Double-A Northwest Arkansas in 2027. Pitcher of the Year: David Shields, LHP While the River Bandits had Justin Lamkin and Kendy Chourio in the rotation at different points this year, Shields was the most dependable and durable pitcher in 2026. In 25 starts and 116.2 IP, the 19-year-old lefty posted a 4.01 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 2.78 FIP. Shields was a strikeout machine in Quad Cities, posting a 29.7% K% and a 23.7% K-BB%. As a result, he earned Midwest League Pitcher of the Year honors, following his Carolina League Pitcher of the Year honors with Columbia in 2025. Shields has a complete profile as a starting pitcher. He ranked in the 75th percentile in CSW%, 82nd percentile in SwStr%, 95th percentile in O-Swing%, and 94th percentile in wOBA allowed. Despite pitching in the hitter-friendly Midwest League, Shields thrived and showed a profile that can certainly transition well to Northwest Arkansas next year. The Royals starting pitching staff took a step back in 2026 and looks questionable for 2027, with Cole Ragans, Luinder Avila, and Stephen Kolek all expected to miss significant time next year due to injury. Does that mean Shields will be in the Opening Day rotation? Probably not. However, could he make his MLB debut in the second half? That's possible, especially if he keeps putting up gaudy numbers in the Texas League. Biggest Riser: L.P. Langevin, RHP The Royals bullpen was an absolute mess in 2026. They ranked 29th in reliever ERA, 28th in BB/9, K/9, and H/9, and 30th in WHIP. Although Nate Pearson and Steven Cruz showed promise, neither claimed the closer role last season. As a result, President JJ Picollo said in his end-of-year press conference that improving the bullpen is a top priority this offseason. The Royals will be aggressive in acquiring bullpen help this offseason. However, they shouldn't overlook Langevin, who could help Kansas City at some point in 2027. Last year, the River Bandits reliever struck out 106 batters in 55.1 IP, good for a 44.9% K%. He also posted a 28.4% K-BB%, a 3.42 ERA, 3.48 FIP, and 1.19 WHIP. Walks were certainly an issue for Langevin (16.5% BB%), as they were in 2025 (21.2% BB% between High-A and Rookie ball). However, he showed much better control down the stretch last year, especially in the postseason. In four postseason games (4.0 IP), he allowed no runs, no walks, and one hit, while striking out eight, including six in a row in two performances against Dayton in the Midwest League Championship. Because of his strong season, the Royals named Langevin the Dan Quisenberry Reliever of the Year. The award goes to the top relief pitcher in the Royals' farm system. Langevin's profile isn't complex. He leads with an elite fastball that sits regularly in the upper 90s and can touch 100 MPH. However, while his repertoire isn't diverse, his approach and mindset are tailor-made for high-leverage late-inning situations. He has definitely brought his "hockey" attitude from growing up in Quebec to the mound. That has helped not only him but the River Bandits. The stuff is there for Langevin to make his MLB debut in 2027. It will just be a matter of how his command and control fare in Double-A in 2027. If it keeps improving, he could be due for a second-half promotion to the big leagues. Most Intriguing Prospect: Austin Charles, SS/3B Charles had a stellar start in Quad Cities in 2026. From April 7th to May 19th, he was hitting .306 with an .868 OPS. However, ligament damage to his hip and stomach put him out for most of the year. Most people figured Charles would miss the rest of the season. Somehow, Charles returned to the field on August 18th and finished the season with a .283 average and a .839 OPS in 189 plate appearances. In the postseason, Charles hit .267 with an .800 OPS in 15 plate appearances. His best game came in Game 1 against South Bend in the West Division playoffs, when he had three base hits, including a home run, in the River Bandits' victory. Because of his shortened season, the Royals have Charles playing in the Arizona Fall League. His stats haven't been great: he's hitting only .100 with a .300 OPS in 20 plate appearances. However, he's launching the ball well and pulling it in the air, so he could break out once he gets his timing together. Because of the injuries and his unique size profile (6'5, 215 pounds), Charles is a tough prospect to project. That said, he has the athleticism and tools, and scouts rave about his competitiveness and makeup. He definitely was a major leader on the Quad Cities roster this year, despite missing so much time on the IL. That bodes well for Charles' outlook, even if the mechanics and consistency (especially on defense) need some work. However, the Royals can afford to be patient with Charles, especially since he's still just 22 years old. View full article

Image courtesy of Allan Henry-Imagn Images The Arizona Fall League began last week, with many Royals prospects playing for the Surprise Saguaros (which play at the Royals-Rangers shared Spring Training complex). Surprise won the AFL last year, and they are off to a strong start again this year with a 4-3 record. The Arizona Fall League began on October 3rd and runs until November 14th, when the championship takes place. In addition to Surprise, which also has players from the Rangers, Guardians, Phillies, and Mets, there are five other teams in the AFL: Scottsdale Scorpions (Tigers, Astros, Brewers, Giants, and Rays) Salt River Rafters (Diamondbacks, Rockies, Twins, Yankees) Peoria Javelinas (Orioles, Reds, Padres, Mariners, Cardinals) Mesa Solar Sox (Athletics, Red Sox, Cubs, Angels, Blue Jays) Glendale Desert Dogs (Braves, White Sox, Dodgers, Marlins, Pirates) Each week on Royals Keep, we recap the Royals' performance in the Arizona Fall League and break down what it could mean for each prospect in the upcoming 2027 season. So, after seven games, let's look at the Royals' prospects' performance so far in the AFL. Hitters: Gomez Standing Out Despite Age Royals Hitters Through October 11th: Austin Charles, SS/3B: 20 AB, .100/.100/.200, 2 2B, 1 R, 1 RBI, 0 BB, 5 K. Angeibel Gomez, OF: 14 AB, .286/.375/.286, 4 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 SB. Zion Rose, OF: 13 AB, .154/.313/.308, 1 3B, 2 R, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 3 K, 2 SB. Brooks Bryan, C: 8 AB, .500/.500/1.125, 1 R, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 R, 3 RBI, 0 BB, 0 K. Looking at the numbers, Gomez has probably been the most impressive, simply because of his age. Gomez is one of the youngest players in AFL history at 17, younger than many high school students in America. Despite his youth, the Venezuelan prospect is holding his own after striking out three times in his AFL debut. Since then, he has struck out only once, and in 14 at-bats, he's collected four hits and scored four runs, including a stolen base. He had a strong outing on October 10th, recording his first multi-hit AFL game against Peoria. Gomez's main issue right now is that he isn't hitting for power; all his hits have been singles. His hard-hit rate and exit velocity metrics haven't been great either, especially when you look at his Statcast percentile via TJ Stats. While he's not barreling the ball or generating much exit velocity, I think he's sacrificing some of that for more contact. Gomez definitely looks like a kid facing a top prospect for the first time, opting for a little-to-no-stride approach that deflates his power. That said, he has such natural power, and he's launching the ball well (65th percentile) despite those mechanics. Once he gets more settled, I could see him using more stride in his swing setup and developing more barrels. Rose and Charles are big names and were on the Quad Cities championship team this year. Charles has the most at-bats of any Saguaro this fall, with 20, but he has only two hits. On the flip side, both were doubles, and he drove in the game-winning run on Sunday. Charles doesn't have the prettiest swing, and I wonder if his mechanics will leave him more exposed as he moves up the Royals system. We're already seeing that in his five strikeouts and no walks. At the same time, if he stays healthy, Charles has an intriguing player who could make an impact at the Major League level. As for Rose, it's been a similar story from Quad Cities: He's got a great approach and's hitting the ball hard, but he's just not barreling it. Even with a triple, his barrel rate has been subpar, as his TJ Stats percentiles below show. Rose shows all the tools of a utility outfielder at the very least. Could he be more? A lot depends on how that power develops. Seeing it develop in Arizona over the next few weeks would be encouraging. Lastly, Bryan has had an impressive start at the plate, hitting .500 in eight at-bats. The Royals selected him with an 8th-round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, but he played only 33 games with Columbia due to injury. However, in that sample, he hit .319 with a .902 OPS in 138 plate appearances. If he were healthy, the Fireflies might have made the playoffs. He hasn't missed a beat in Arizona with four hits, including two doubles and a home run. His power is intriguing, and his Statcast percentiles in Arizona have been impressive, especially in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrels. The Royals have had a strong track record with catching prospects recently, especially with Carter Jensen and Blake Mitchell having strong campaigns this year. If healthy, Bryan could be another one in 2027. Pitching: Could Mozzicato Find a Spot in the Royals Bullpen Soon? Royals pitchers through October 11: Justin Lamkin, LHP: 12.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, BB, 2 K, 3.0 IP. Steven Zobac, RHP: 6.75 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 0 BB, 4 K, 2.2 IP. Josh Hansell, RHP: 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 0 BB, 3 K, 2.0 IP. Frank Mozzicato, LHP: 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 0 BB, 3 K, 2.0 IP. Hiro Wyatt, RHP: 4.50 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, 0 BB, 1 K, 2.0 IP. Lamkin made his much-anticipated AFL debut on October 6th, his first outing since May 25th in Double-A Northwest Arkansas. The stat line wasn't impressive. In three innings, he allowed five runs (four earned) on four hits and one walk while striking out two. The stuff also didn't profile well, with his four-seamer having a TJ Stuff+ of 80. That said, he generated a good amount of CSW and whiff, as shown in his Statcast summary below. With strong whiff, O-Swing%, and zone numbers, I wonder if his October 6th debut was more about shaking off the rust and getting back on the mound after such a long layoff. His next outing will be worth watching, as he could be in the mix in the Royals rotation in 2027. Like Lamkin, Zobac had mixed results in his AFL debut on October 5th against Glendale. In 2.2 IP, he allowed two runs on three hits. However, he struck out four and allowed no walks. His strikeout numbers were solid, but he gave up a lot of hard contact in his AFL debut, similar to what he did during the 2026 season in Double-A. Zobac has a spot on the 40-man roster for now, but he needs to show progress in 2027 to keep his spot. Otherwise, the Royals may replace him with another prospect in the system, a free agent, or a trade target from outside the organization. This AFL campaign and the upcoming Spring Training could be critical to Zobac's future in Kansas City. The most intriguing arm so far in Arizona may be Mozzicato, a former first-round pick who hasn't been consistent in the Royals organization since being drafted in 2021. The lefty has been Rule 5 eligible and hasn't been selected, which suggests he's not exactly a "desired" asset in the league. That said, he showed progress in Northwest Arkansas, finishing strong in the last two months of the year with a 3.86 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 18.2 IP. So far in Arizona, Mozzicato has struck out three batters, allowed no runs or walks, and surrendered only two hits in two innings. It's a small sample, but the stuff has been encouraging, and he's shown strong chase rates in the AFL. It would be nice to see Mozzicato's stuff play up even more, especially the four-seamer. However, his strong grades on the cutter and four-seamer show he has the potential to have a strong mix at the Major League level. While Mozzicato's game is inconsistent, his profile feels similar to Daniel Lynch IV, who struggled as a starter but proved reliable as a reliever. He needs to prove a bit more this fall and spring, but Mozzicato has gotten off to an encouraging start in the AFL. Lastly, Hansell and Wyatt aren't getting much prospect fanfare, but they could become decent relievers if they stay healthy and develop properly. Wyatt is intriguing, but injuries have slowed him and kept him from advancing beyond Low-A ball. That said, he can throw strikes and induce plenty of groundballs, as he did in his two-inning stint against Salt River on October 6th. With six pitches, Wyatt has the mix to be a long reliever or middle-innings arm who can thrive in medium-leverage spots. At 22, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Royals be aggressive with Wyatt in 2027, starting him in High-A and hoping he can transition to Double-A mid-season. View full article

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect While the Storm Chasers weren't very good in 2026, people expected them to be mediocre in the spring. After all, it's hard for a Triple-A team to generate much buzz when it's mostly made up of Four-A players and veterans trying to get one last chance in the Big Leagues. The Naturals, on the other hand, had loftier expectations. While they weren't exactly "prospect flush" compared to High-A Quad Cities and Low-A Columbia, they featured some prospects expected to take the appropriate developmental steps, with an MLB debut on the near horizon. Unfortunately, more top prospects disappointed in Northwest Arkansas than surprised. Shortstop Daniel Vazquez was supposed to build on a strong Arizona Fall League campaign and Spring Training, but only hit .246 with a .643 OPS in 451 at-bats (he fell out of our Top 20 at Royals Keep). Pitchers Drew Beam, Frank Mozzicato, and Felix Arronde were expected to matriculate to Triple-A or even the Majors this year with solid campaigns in Northwest Arkansas. However, none of these pitchers posted an ERA under 6.49, and they seemed primed to repeat at Double-A in 2027. The Naturals prospects tended to underwhelm, and their 57-79 record reflected that. They finished only ahead of the Wichita Wind Surge (Twins), who were last in the Texas League North division with a 55-81 record. While it's nice that Northwest Arkansas didn't finish in the cellar, they never were in postseason contention at any point in 2026. Nonetheless, some key prospects took steps forward in 2026, with four in particular standing out. As in our Omaha write-up, we will highlight the Hitter of the Year, Pitcher of the Year, Most Intriguing Prospect, and Biggest Riser from Northwest Arkansas this season. Hitter of the Year: Carson Roccaforte, OF The Naturals were carried primarily by Roccaforte, our No. 9 prospect at Royals Keep, who may be pushing for a starting outfield spot on Opening Day (especially if Kyle Isbel cannot bounce back after a down 2026). In 45 games in 2025 with the Naturals, the former 2023 Competitive Round pick slashed .290/.387/.475 with an .862 OPS in 212 plate appearances. He also hit five home runs, scored 32 runs, drove in 29, and stole 10 bases. Thus, Roccaforte already had a foundation to succeed in Double-A in 2026. Despite loftier expectations, Roccaforte continued to mash with the Naturals in 2026. In 504 plate appearances in Northwest Arkansas, the 24-year-old outfielder slashed .251/.333/.523 with an .856 OPS. While the batting average and OBP went down, the power skyrocketed. That is shown not just by his improved slugging, but by his 30 home runs in Double-A. He also stole 21 bases, making him a true 20-20 threat in the Naturals lineup. As a result, Roccaforte earned a promotion to Omaha in mid-August, and he seemed to do even better in Triple-A. He slashed .282/.362/.500 with an .862 OPS in 118 plate appearances with the Storm Chasers. He also hit five home runs, drove in 16 RBI, and stole 11 bases on 11 attempts (much more efficient than his 21 for 38 mark in Northwest Arkansas). By the end of 2026, Roccaforte became one of the rare members of the 30-30 club in Minor League history (he's the first to accomplish such a feat since 2023). With the Storm Chasers, Roccaforte still displayed strikeout (15th percentile K%) and whiff (10th percentile whiff%) issues, two things that have dogged him as a prospect since his days in Columbia. While the percentiles weren't as bad in Northwest Arkansas, he still rated on the lower end of the Texas League in both categories. Conversely, his power and ability to pull the ball are excellent, as shown in his Statcast percentiles below via TJ Stats. Isbel is coming off a rough season, hitting .224 with a .591 OPS in 323 plate appearances for the Royals last season. Over his MLB career, Isbel has never hit the double-digit HR mark in a single season, and his OPS hasn't been above .700 since his rookie year (.771), when he played 28 games. Looking at his percentiles, Roccaforte could offer a better profile than Isbel at the MLB level, especially if his power translates from Triple-A. With Royals President JJ Picollo claiming that Kansas City needs to upgrade CF this offseason, it's possible that Roccaforte can be the solution in some form, maybe an everyday one if he can lower the strikeouts and whiffs just a bit over the next year. Pitcher of the Year: Hunter Patteson, LHP The Naturals didn't get much dependable starting pitching in 2026. As noted before, Beam, Mozzicato, and Arronde, three pitchers expected to carry the Northwest Arkansas rotation, struggled mightily this season, which contributed to the club's poor record overall. However, one starting pitcher who held his own was Patterson, who posted a 4.52 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 99.2 IP with the Naturals this season. Patteson didn't overwhelm hitters with elite stuff or movement. A fifth-round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft out of Central Florida, the lefty lived on throwing strikes (59th percentile zone rate) and generating chase (58th percentile). While the chases didn't lead to many whiffs (20th percentile whiff%) or strikeouts (28th percentile K%), he kept the ball in the yard and generated plenty of outs in the field, both groundball and flyball. As a result of this strong, efficient approach, Patteson ranked in the top of the Texas League in ERA and BAA (batting average against) and was named the Naturals' Pitcher of the Month in both June and July. Because of his strong performance with the Naturals, Patteson earned a promotion to Omaha at the end of the season. The 26-year-old held his own, posting 1.96 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 18.1 IP. Much like his numbers in Double-A, the underlying data was a little more skeptical of Patteson with the Storm Chasers. His FIP was higher at 4.35, his K% was only 16.5%, and his K-BB% was 7.1%. Add a GB% of 37.5%, and it doesn't seem like Patteson has the right recipe to succeed at the MLB level. Furthermore, his TJ Stuff+ metrics weren't exactly impressive, as evidenced in the TJ Stuff+ season pitching summary below. Overall, Patterson posted a 90 TJ Stuff+ with a 22.2% chase rate, 17.7% whiff rate, and 46.6% zone rate. On a positive note, he did a great job minimizing hard contact in Omaha, as evidenced by his .311 xwOBACON. Patteson's best offering was his slider, which generated a 94 TJ Stuff+, 30.8% whiff rate, and .282 xwOBACON. The former Central Florida product shares physical similarities with Daniel Lynch IV, though Patteson's stuff pales in comparison. However, like Lynch, a move to the bullpen could help Patteson's pitch mix and stuff play up more. For an organization lacking lefty arms out of the bullpen, Patteson could find a niche as a lefty reliever in 2027 or 2028 if he can slightly improve his pitch quality. Most Intriguing Prospect: Hunter Owen, LHP Owen made 17 starts and pitched 98 innings overall between Double-A and Triple-A this season. With the Naturals, he pitched 94 innings and posted a 5.94 ERA. Safe to say, based solely on ERA, Owen didn't appear to be an impressive pitching prospect. However, when looking deeper into his profile, Owen is more intriguing and could be an arm who could matriculate to the Royals bullpen sooner than fans may think. With the Naturals, the former Vandy product generated a 14.4% SwStr% (66th percentile), 32% O-Swing% (77th percentile), 25.1% K% (57th percentile), and only a 9.1% BB% (61st percentile). The CSW could've been better (44th percentile), and he allowed too many fly balls (10th percentile GB%), but these metrics and his 4.56 FIP showed that Owen was a better pitcher than his ERA indicated. The lefty particularly dominated in August, striking out 45 batters that month, an MiLB high. Owen had a cup of coffee in Omaha, making three relief appearances. In four innings of work, he generated ground balls at a high rate (57.1% GB%) and posted a solid K-BB% (14.3%). Overall, the stuff metrics weren't great, though his slider was a premium pitch in Omaha. Owen's slider had a 104 TJ Stuff+ with a 64.9% zone rate. His four-seamer, though lacking stuff (89), did generate above-average chase (28.6%) and xwOBACON (.251). A move to relief could help his four-seamer tick up in velocity and stuff, which in turn could help the other three offerings in his arsenal. The Royals will likely move Owen to the bullpen to fast-track him to Kansas City. Can his stuff improve in a relief role? If so, Owen may be the biggest sleeper in the upper Minors of the Royals' farm system pitching-wise, and he could make a push for a spot on Opening Day, depending on how Spring Training goes. Biggest Riser: Luke Pelzer, OF When looking at hitting prospects, sometimes it's important to find guys who do all the little things right, even if they don't have the big tools. Steven Kwan is an example of this in Cleveland, and Nicky Lopez was one for the Royals (though his success was more fleeting). Pelzer may be the next prospect in this mold to make his way to the Majors, even if his tools may not impress prospect experts and scouts. Drafted in 2025 in the 17th round out of the University of Illinois-Chicago (a mid-major school), Pelzer has done nothing but hit, which has helped him move up quickly in the Royals' farm system. Pelzer began the year in High-A Quad Cities and slashed .337/.404/.506 with a .910 OPS in 295 plate appearances. While he hit only four home runs, he hit 18 doubles, scored 45 runs, drove in 59 RBI, and stole 28 bases on 32 attempts. Though he didn't have traditional home-run power, the 23-year-old could go yard from time to time, as evidenced by this grand slam in July below. After a strong performance with the River Bandits, Pelzer earned a promotion to Northwest Arkansas in late July. In 42 games with the Naturals, the outfielder didn't skip a beat. He slashed .337/.414/.405 with an .819 OPS in 186 plate appearances. He dropped his whiff and K rates in Northwest Arkansas, while increasing his walks and Z-Contact%. He also hit seven doubles, two triples, scored 31 runs, drove in 10, stole 14, and had a partridge in a pear tree (scratch that last one). Yes, Pelzer doesn't hit home runs. He had zero in Northwest Arkansas, and it doesn't seem likely that he will ever hit double digits in a season at the Major League level. That's a knock against him. However, he does everything else right offensively. He's the kind of hitter that teams like Cleveland and Milwaukee produce. It would be nice if Pelzer could start a similar trend for the Royals. Kansas City could use a hitter like Pelzer in the bottom of the order, especially in the No. 8 or 9 spot. He is the kind of hitter who can extend innings and set things up for Carter Jensen and Bobby Witt Jr. at the top of the Royals lineup. It would not be surprising to see Pelzer get that opportunity in the second half of 2027 or by Opening Day in 2028. View full article