Kevin O'Brien

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Image courtesy of Brett Davis-Imagn Images The Kansas City Royals have finished their Spring Training season, which concluded with a two-game set in Arlington against the Texas Rangers. The Royals went 9-21, which was the worst record in the Cactus League. However, as Royals Review mentioned today, poor performance in Spring Training doesn't always correlate to regular-season futility. Despite the poor results in Arizona (mostly due to many key Royals players participating in the World Baseball Classic), Kansas City is looking to improve on its 82-80 record from a season ago. A key to that will be the bullpen, which ranked 7th in reliever ERA last season. Carlos Estevez, acquired in free agency, was key to that bullpen's overall success in 2025. In 67 outings and 66 IP, he posted a 2.45 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and saved 42 games. Those stellar metrics helped him earn a spot on the American League All-Star roster. Additionally, Estevez was the first Royals closer to lead the league in saves since Dan Quisenberry. Thus, the Dominican-born righty became a fan favorite in Kansas City due to his late-inning prowess and end-of-game celebration (which was a hat tip to Dragon Ball Z). Unfortunately, it has not been a rosy spring for Estevez in his second season in Kansas City. In five outings and innings pitched, he posted a 7.20 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, and 12.70 FIP. He also had a -4.0% K-BB%, a 30% HR/FB rate, and a mere 49% strike rate. Safe to say, even for a veteran pitcher, who is "ramping up" this spring, the results were especially poor and have gotten the attention of worried Royals fans. Thus, let's dive deeper into what Estevez has produced this spring, and why the Royals may need to brace for some serious regression from their 33-year-old closer in 2026. The TJ Stuff+ Metrics Have Been Brutal for Estevez This Spring When it comes to evaluating pitchers in the spring, looking at pure results can be misleading at times. Often, pitchers toy with different grips or pitch mixes to prepare for the upcoming season. They do this because Spring Training results matter a whole lot less to the club than regular-season ones. As a result, they try these changes in a relatively pressure-free environment. However, one constant that can give fans an idea of how a spring went for a pitcher is their velocity and "stuff". When using TJ Stuff+, TJ Stats' pitch modeling metric, Estevez fared pretty poorly this spring, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary below. Overall, Estevez posted a TJ Stuff+ of 92, which is eight points below average. His four-seamer, which he threw the most at 49.6%, had an 89 TJ Stuff+, which is alarming. Furthermore, his slider and changeup didn't fare much better in TJ Stuff+, with marks of 95 and 94. The highest grade he had of his three pitches this spring was his changeup, which had a 46 grade (his four-seamer and slider had 37 and 33 grades, respectively). For context, here's a glance at his TJ Stats summary last season. Estevez's four-seamer was 15 points higher in TJ Stuff+, and his overall TJ Stuff+ was 11 points higher. His slider had a 107 TJ Stuff+, which was 12 points higher than his mark this spring. There wasn't much difference between last year's changeup and this spring's. His changeup had a 95 TJ Stuff+ a season ago, only one point better than his changeup TJ Stuff+ in Spring Training. A big factor in this TJ Stuff+ difference is velocity. His four-seamer last year averaged 95.9 MPH. This spring? It averaged 89 MPH. The slider averaged 87.4 MPH last year, but only 81 MPH this spring. Lastly, the changeup averaged 87.9 MPH last season and only 82 MPH this season. Basically, he's seen a 5-6 MPH decline in all of his pitches, a huge red flag. A couple of MPH difference? Okay, maybe he's still getting ramped up. However, those bigger MPH differences signify either a lingering injury or that the stuff just isn't there. Some have pointed out that this is "normal" for Estevez and that he has traditionally shown these kinds of velocity issues as he ramps up and prepares for the regular season. However, his TJ Stuff+ and velocity last spring, while down, weren't as alarming as what we have seen this spring. Below is his TJ Stats summary for 2025. His overall TJ Stuff+ was 98, with his four-seamer having a 95 mark, his slider having a 104 mark, and his changeup having a 99 mark. Those are all considerably better than what Estevez demonstrated stuff-wise this spring. Furthermore, Estevez's four-seamer velocity was four MPH higher, his slider was 4.9 MPH higher, and his changeup was 1.5 MPH higher. Even though his pitch TJ Stuff+ and velocity were down last spring, they were at reasonable levels where a bounceback was feasible. In terms of TJ Stuff+ and pitch velocity, unfortunately, Estevez hasn't demonstrated that same promise this spring. What Has Contributed to Estevez's Stuff and Velocity Issues? I wanted to see, in his last outing of the spring against the Rangers, if the TJ Stuff+ or velocity would look any better than what we saw in Arizona or at the World Baseball Classic. However, it was more of the same in those two areas, though Estevez did a good job generating whiffs against Texas. Now, the TJ Stuff+ was two points better than his Spring Training average, which was encouraging. However, the velocity was pretty much the same on the pitch (89.3 MPH), and the TJ Stuff+ wasn't that much better on the slider or changeup. Overall, Estevez posted a 92 TJ Stuff+, which matched his overall TJ Stuff+ this spring. In terms of velocity in his last outing, his pitch velocity chart showed him sitting around 89-90 MPH, with him topping out around 91 MPH by the end of his outing, as illustrated below. For a power pitcher who relies on his four-seamer, that kind of middling velocity is concerning. It becomes even more maddening when compared to his pitch velocity chart from Opening Day a year ago. Last year, his four-seamer sat in the mid-90s. And that was DOWN from what fans were expecting, mostly due to Estevez overcoming some nagging injuries in the spring. He saw an uptick later in the year, once he was fully recovered. Which makes one wonder: Is Estevez dealing with a lingering injury that is causing this velocity problem? If so, the Royals have kept a lid on it. To be fair, that has been a trademark of the Royals since JJ Picollo and Matt Quatraro took over as general manager and manager, respectively. They have often shared little detail about injuries, keeping the media and fans in the dark until the last possible moment. A key example of this is Michael Massey, whose Opening Day status remains in flux even though he's been out of commission with a calf injury sustained a couple of weeks ago. Is it possible that Estevez is dealing with something that's affecting his velocity and stuff? It's hard to imagine that he's seen such a dramatic drop from last year to this spring due to "age" or "not being warmed up." While regression was to be expected for Estevez this year, this kind of stuff and velocity decline feels like a massive anomaly. The Royals will need to finalize their roster by Wednesday. Thus, one has to wonder if Estevez may be put on the IL to deal with whatever is affecting his velocity. What Do the Royals Do With Estevez? If Estevez is dealing with an injury, even a minor one, he will likely be put on the 15-Day IL. The Royals can't afford to give away losses, especially in a division that will remain competitive, especially in the wake of the Detroit Tigers adding their top prospect to the Opening Day roster. Thankfully, the Royals have reinforcements in the bullpen to handle a short Estevez stay on the IL. After all, Picollo made adding to the bullpen a priority this offseason, which made sense when looking at Estevez's Statcast percentiles from a year ago. While he was effective, many of his lackluster Statcast percentiles suggested he also benefited from some luck a season ago. His .330 xwOBA last year, especially given his .254 actual wOBA, is a sign that he was due for regression in 2026. Thus, Picollo was wise to add to the bullpen this offseason with Alex Lange and Matt Strahm, both of whom have closing experience. They also have Lucas Erceg, who closed games in 2024 and returns for his third season with the Royals. (Spoiler alert: In my Bold Predictions piece, I predicted that Erceg would have more saves than Estevez.) Another one who could contribute in Estevez's possible absence is Eli Morgan, who's had a fantastic spring as a non-roster invitee. In nine outings and 10.1 IP, the former Guardians setup man is posting a 0.87 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 1.94 FIP, 29.3% K%, and 19.5% K-BB%. While the fastball velocity isn't great, and he doesn't generate as many groundballs as one would hope for a pitcher with his stuff profile, he pretty much exceeded in every other area this spring with the Royals, as illustrated below. Morgan has earned a spot on the Opening Day roster, and he would be a nice fill-in for Estevez as he recovers on the IL. Furthermore, when Estevez is ready to return, the Royals can send Morgan to the Minor Leagues because he still has a Minor League option remaining. If they do not add him to the 40-man roster on Wednesday, he could opt to become a free agent and could sign with another team. After his stellar spring, a team likely would take a waiver on Morgan. Starting Estevez on the IL wouldn't be the start the Royals expected back when pitchers and catchers reported in February. However, the Royals' bullpen has the depth to absorb this loss for now, especially with Erceg, Strahm, and Lange all capable of handling spot duties in the ninth inning. Furthermore, resting Estevez for a little bit also gives an opportunity to Morgan, who could be a sleeper reliever for this Royals bullpen in 2026. View full article

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images The Royals' Opening Day will be Friday night in Atlanta. Kansas City is hoping for an improvement upon its 82-80 record a season ago. While it was only the second winning season for the Royals since 2015, they missed out on the postseason after going 86-76 in 2024 (they made it to the ALDS, where they lost to the Yankees in four games). For the Royals to return to the postseason after a one-year hiatus, certain players will have to step up and have productive seasons. Of course, while some positive regression is due for a handful of Royals players, there will also be some negative regression. Thus, which Royals will be key to their postseason chances this season? And which ones may be due for disappointing campaigns? In this post, I will share my five bold Royals player predictions for the upcoming season, which begins this week, and how they could impact the 2026 season. Bobby Witt Jr. Wins the AL MVP Let's start really bold with the first one. Yes, I know the chances will be tough for Witt to win the AL MVP, especially with Aaron Judge and the Yankees' media "bias" working against the Royals franchise star. However, I think many chips will fall in Witt's favor, helping him earn his first-ever AL MVP award in 2026. Witt did have a "down" season in 2025, especially compared to his sensational 2024 campaign. In 2024, he hit .332 with a .977 OPS, and he hit 32 home runs, scored 125 runs, collected 109 RBI, and stole 31 bases. He also played stellar defense, which contributed to his 10.5 fWAR. Thus, people who valued "overall" play may have favored Witt over Judge in the AL MVP race. In 2025, many of Witt's offensive metrics regressed. His average and OPS were .295 and .852, respectively. Furthermore, he only had 23 home runs, 99 runs scored, and 88 RBI. He stole 38 bases and was caught only 9 times (compared to 12 in 2024), and he earned his first Platinum Glove award. That said, his decline in hitting numbers put him out of the AL MVP discussion early on (though he did finish fourth, behind Judge, Cal Raleigh, and Jose Ramirez). However, according to TJ Stats, Witt's 2025 Statcast percentiles indicate his skills were among the most elite in the league, as shown below. Not only did his wOBA and xwOBA rank in the 92nd percentile, but his .374 xwOBA was 14 points higher than his actual wOBA. That suggested Witt may have suffered from some poor batted-ball luck, and his .334 BABIP, 20 points lower than his 2024 BABIP, seemed to support that. In addition to the difference in wOBA and xwOBA, Witt ranked in the 98th percentile in Max EV, 90th percentile in hard-hit%, 82nd percentile in barrel%, and 72nd percentile in LA Sweet-Spot%. While he could pull the ball more (47th percentile PullAir%), he showed the skills of a hitter who would benefit in a more "homer-friendly" home ballpark. Thankfully, that will be the case in 2026. Kauffman Stadium will have friendlier dimensions for home runs, especially those balls hit in the gaps. When considering the new gaps of the K for 2026, which mirror Target Field in Minneapolis closely, Witt will seem to see more hits go for homers in those gaps, which is a strength of his as a hitter. Witt has already proven that he is a stellar fielder and baserunner, and it's unlikely that either of those skills will decline in 2026 (barring injury). Thus, a tick up in power numbers, which I think is bound to happen with another year of maturity and a more hitter-friendly home ballpark, will help give him the edge that he's been missing against the Yankees slugger for the past couple of seasons. Jac Caglianone Hits 25 Home Runs Cags had a nightmare debut with the Royals in 2025. In 62 games and 232 plate appearances, he hit .157 with a .532 OPS. He hit seven home runs, but his LA Sweet-Spot% was only 30.4% (5th percentile), and his O-Swing% was 38.5% (5th percentile). Due to these two factors, Caglianone couldn't fully tap into his power profile despite prodigious power tools (97th-percentile 90th EV and 70th-percentile barrel rate). This spring, in both Spring Training and the WBC with Italy, the former Florida product has made all the right adjustments at the plate. He's still showcasing that unique power, but he's showing positive gains in launching the ball, as well as swinging and chasing less. That is illustrated in his TJ Stats summary this spring. The LA Sweet-Spot% is only marginally better percentage-wise, but the 32nd percentile is much better than the fifth percentile. Conversely, his 24.8% O-Swing% this spring has been a major improvement, ranking in the 64th percentile. Thus, not only is his walk rate higher (23.1%), but he also produced better results in Arizona, with a .443 wOBA and .439 xwOBA. With less pressure on him in 2026 than in 2025, I think Cags will thrive, especially now that he's more in tune with a patient and selective approach. I am not sure if Cags will be a high-average hitter, and the projections are mixed with that as well. ZiPS and OOPSY project averages of .254 and .258, while the BAT X projects an average of .232. That said, they all seem to think he's capable of 20+ home runs, especially if he can play in 140 or more games. If Caglianone can stay healthy, I think he will lock in and hit 25 or more home runs in 2026 as a No. 5 or 6 hitter in the Royals lineup. That will help solve the outfield production problem that has plagued the Royals over the past couple of seasons. Lucas Erceg Has More Saves Than Carlos Estevez It has been an alarming spring for Estevez, who begins his second year in Kansas City. The 33-year-old Dominican closer has traditionally been slow to ramp up, and after saving 42 games and posting a 2.45 ERA last year, fans want to give him the benefit of the doubt. That said, the metrics are pretty tough to stomach, even for his standards. In four innings of work this spring, Estevez has a 9.00 ERA and 15.15 FIP. Furthermore, he has failed to get a strikeout and is averaging under 90 MPH on his four-seamer, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary below. When looking at TJ Stuff+, Estevez has an overall 91 TJ Stuff+, with his four-seamer having an 88 TJ Stuff+. Considering he leans heavily on his four-seamer, that kind of regression on the pitch is concerning, even if it may increase in velocity over the course of the season. A red flag with Estevez is that he struggled to generate whiffs last year. Despite solid ERA numbers, his whiff rate ranked in the 9th percentile, and his CSW ranked in the 8th percentile, via TJ Stats. He also showcased plenty of concerning Statcast percentiles last year, as evidenced below. Those are the kinds of numbers that are more typical of a setup man, not a closer. These percentiles were with strong TJ Stuff+ numbers, as his 103 overall mark ranked in the 66th percentile. Any decline in TJ Stuff+ quality in the regular season could produce disastrous results in 2026. Conversely, I think Erceg is ready to bounce back after a down 2025 and could take the closer spot from Estevez at some point in 2026. After posting a 28.5% K% in 2024 (32% with the Royals), his K% declined to 19.6% in 2025. Despite this decline, his ERA went from 3.36 in 2024 to 2.64 in 2025. While the strikeouts were down, Erceg learned to pitch better overall, and it's likely that he never was 100% following an early back injury, which may have affected his ability to hit spots to generate whiffs and chase, as illustrated below in his TJ Stats season summary. This spring, he's still getting ramped up, so the TJ Stuff+ isn't as high as it was a year ago. That said, his chase rate is up, and his xwOBACON is down, both encouraging signs. With Matt Strahm now in the Royals bullpen, manager Matt Quatraro has another arm to serve in the fireman role that Erceg had a season ago. Because of that, Erceg may be in line for more saves, which could come even earlier in the season if Estevez isn't 100% back stuff-wise. Starling Marte and Lane Thomas Are More Productive Than Isaac Collins The Royals made some headlines with their trade for Collins and Nick Mears from Milwaukee in exchange for Angel Zerpa. It seemed like a win-win deal that addressed two much-needed areas for the Royals this offseason. While Collins doesn't offer much power (nine home runs in 441 plate appearances), he didn't chase last year (97th percentile O-Swing%) and got on base (.368 OBP). This spring, Collins has had an uneven campaign, missing some time due to nagging injuries. As a result, he hasn't produced much at the plate. In 28 plate appearances, he is hitting .120 with a .374 OPS and has 11 strikeouts to 3 walks. While the O-Swing% has been solid, per usual, his other Statcast percentiles have been pretty mediocre. It's not that Collins won't be a factor for this Royals lineup in 2026. He will be a crucial part. That said, I think he will end up being more of a rotational one than an everyday one, as many Royals fans initially believed when he was acquired. As a result, Marte and Thomas have had solid Spring Training campaigns. In 23 plate appearances, Marte is hitting .300 with a .741 OPS and three walks to five strikeouts. He also has shown excellent plate discipline and contact skills in his limited sample with the Royals this spring. As for Thomas, he's struck out a lot, but he's hit two home runs and has posted an .839 OPS in 49 plate appearances. There's a lot more risk with Thomas, but there's also more upside power-wise than Collins. Thomas' barrel and exit velocity numbers have been encouraging this spring. I don't think Thomas will match his 2023 numbers again (28 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and .783 OPS). However, it's looking like Thomas may be able to match his 2024 metrics (15 home runs, 32 stolen bases, .709 OPS), which is more than satisfactory for a rotational outfielder. Ryan Bergert Becomes the Royals' Third-Best Starter Bergert was optioned to Triple-A, thus eliminating his chance of making the Opening Day roster. That said, Royals fans shouldn't sleep on Bergert despite the early demotion. In Cactus League play, the former Padres pitcher was hit hard, as evidenced by his 7.24 ERA, 8.84 FIP, 1.54 WHIP, and 35.3% HR/FB rate. He also allowed an xwOBACON of .403 and only had a zone rate of 43.4%. Thus, the command just wasn't there for Bergert in Arizona this spring, and it makes sense that the Royals sent him to Omaha so he could work through those issues while pitching innings. However, despite the command problems, the stuff was good, as illustrated by his TJ Stuff+ metrics below. Not only did Bergert post a 103 overall TJ Stuff+, but four of his six pitches had TJ Stuff+ marks over 100. He also generated a chase rate of 34.1% and a whiff rate of 32.8%, both above-average marks. Hence, the stuff is there for Bergert. He just needs to get his control in check. I believe he is more than capable of doing that, and once he is ready, he will be able to succeed at the Big League level immediately. So why will Bergert be the Royals' third-best pitcher in 2026? Well, his stuff has been much better than the other Royals' starters this spring. Here's a ranking of Royals starting pitchers by TJ Stuff+ via TJ Stats' leaderboards. Bergert: 103 TJ Stuff+ Cole Ragans: 102 TJ Stuff+ Stephen Kolek: 102 TJ Stuff+ Kris Bubic: 100 TJ Stuff+ Mitch Spence: 100 TJ Stuff+ Bailey Falter: 99 TJ Stuff+ Ben Kudrna: 99 TJ Stuff+ Seth Lugo: 98 TJ Stuff+ Mason Black: 95 TJ Stuff+ Michael Wacha: 95 TJ Stuff+ Noah Cameron: 94 TJ Stuff+ Not only did Bergert lead all Royals starting pitching candidates on the 40-man roster in TJ Stuff+, but he also had a TJ Stuff+ that was nearly double digits better than two starters slated to be in the Opening Day rotation (Wacha and Cameron). Bergert will be one to watch in Omaha. If he's able to get the zone rate up while still maintaining excellent stuff, chase, and whiff rates, he will not just be an early call-up, but a huge impact pitcher in the Royals' rotation both in the short and long term. View full article

Here's the thread for those who can't access Twitter: Bailey Falter is likely going to make the #Royals #OpeningDay roster. He's out of options and is an odd fit as a starter, trying to fit a hybrid/long relief role. However, there are some things he's doing this spring that fans should be encouraged about 🧵 Photo Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images Falter was very efficient in his last outing against the Dodgers. Went 3.0 IP and struck out 5 with 0 H, 0 ER, and 0 BB allowed. He also had a 41.7% whiff rate and .129 xwOBACON. Those are two characteristics that can make him good in a hybrid role. For the spring, the stuff is slightly below average (99 TJ Stuff+). However, his four-seamer is above average at 101 with a 56 grade. While it doesn't have great velocity (92.9 MPH), it has good rise (17.7 iVB) and generates chase (41.2%). It's a pitch to watch in '26 In terms of his Statcast percentiles, he's limiting hard contact, and the barrel%, xwOBA, and wOBA show that. Would like to see a better CSW (9th percentile), but the high O-Swing% and extension help. It could be better as he gets more work and becomes accustomed to the relief. For the spring, his ERA is bad at 5.59. But his FIP is much better at 3.10, and he has a good K-BB% at 17.1%. I think things will neutralize a bit for him once he gets out of the hitter-friendly environment of Arizona. Overall, while I would prefer Avila in this spot, I don't think Falter is a total wash. I think Falter is trade fodder, and he could be dealt if a team struggles with a SP injury. But I think he could be due for a bounce-back in '26 after a disastrous '25 with the #Royals

Bailey Falter is likely going to make the Opening Day roster, especially in the wake of Luinder Avila and Steven Cruz being optioned to Omaha. Here's a breakdown I did on Twitter about Falter's performance and why Royals fans should be optimistic about his outlook for 2026. Do you agree with my analysis of Falter? Share in the comments below!

Image courtesy of Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images The Kansas City Royals' prospects dominated the 2026 Spring Breakout against the Texas Rangers' prospects on Friday in Surprise. The Royals won 9-2 and were never threatened after getting up 6-0 in the fifth inning. Carter Jensen didn't play, as expected, with him likely making the Opening Day roster and getting ready for the 2026 MLB season. Furthermore, pitchers David Shields and Frank Mozzicato, our No. 3 and 20 prospects, didn't pitch either. They may have already pitched in previous Minor League Spring Training contests, which explains their absence (those aren't as widely publicized as Major League ones). That said, many still participated and delivered solid performances in the Royals' win over the Rangers. Let's look at six Royals prospects (three pitchers and three position players) who stood out on Friday afternoon and what that could mean for the upcoming season. Justin Lamkin, LHP Lamkin was a competitive-B-round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft for the Royals out of Texas A&M. He didn't pitch at all in the Minors last year, but he was stellar in his final season with the Aggies. In 15 starts and 84.1 IP, the 21-year-old lefty posted a 3.24 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 3.41 FIP. He also had a 28% K% and a 22.6% K-BB% in his final season in College Station and posted a 15-strikeout complete-game shutout in Athens against the Georgia Bulldogs. Lamkin got the nod for the Royals on Friday afternoon, and he was efficient in his three innings of work. He allowed no hits, no runs, and only one run while striking out six on 47 pitches (31 strikes). Here's a look at what his TJ Stats summary looked like from his Royals debut. The TJ Stuff+ wasn't eye-popping at 97 overall. However, his four-seamer was excellent with a 104 TJ Stuff+ and a 59 grade. The pitch not only averaged 94 MPH, but also had a 17.6 iVB and generated a 33.3% whiff rate. His zone rate was a little inconsistent at 44.7%. That said, he generated a 34.6% chase rate, a 57.1% whiff rate, and a .247 xwOBACON. Safe to say, there wasn't much to complain about in Lamkin's first outing in a Kansas City uniform. He wasn't on our Top-20, and he went a bit under the radar last year because he didn't pitch professionally in 2025. However, he could be part of a really good Quad Cities rotation and make some major gains in the system this year. Gavin Cross, OF Cross missed out on our Top-20, mostly because he regressed in a repeat of Double-A Northwest Arkansas. After posting a 115 wRC+ in 436 plate appearances with the Naturals, he had a 92 wRC+ in 507 plate appearances in 2025. On a positive note, he still hit 17 home runs and stole 23 bases, and looked much better in the second half of the season. In the Spring Breakout, the former first-round pick went 1-for-2 with a three-run home run that helped the Royals pull away from the Rangers in this contest. His home run was hit 404 feet and had an exit velocity of 110.1 MPH. If that wasn't enough, the former Virginia Tech Hokie made a sensational play on a hard-hit ball at first base. Cross has taken some innings at first base this year, a sign that the Royals may be interested in him developing some defensive versatility to make him a more intriguing call-up candidate. After a disappointing 2025 season that saw him left off the 40-man roster this offseason (he went unselected in the Rule 5 Draft), he's been holding his own in Cactus League play. In 37 plate appearances, he is hitting .286 with a .810 OPS, and he has two home runs and seven RBI. He is still striking out a lot (14 strikeouts) and not walking much either (2 walks), but he's producing some intriguing exit velocity and hard-hit metrics this spring in Arizona. Cross is far from a "sure thing" by any means, and he may not make enough contact to be anything more than a fringe Major League player, at best (he has a 73.3% Z-Contact% this spring, which ranks in the 8th percentile). However, with his sudden positional flexibility and budding power, he may be a sleeper for a midseason call-up. Kendry Chourio, RHP Chourio was probably the most anticipated Royals prospect to play in Friday's game, especially with all the hype he's received this offseason from prospect experts. In his Spring Breakout debut, Chourio looked solid in two innings of work. He allowed no runs, one hit, no walks, and struck out three on 30 pitches (19 strikes). While those results were encouraging, the TJ Stuff+ metrics weren't as impressive, as illustrated below. There are some encouraging signs in the TJ Stats summary from Chourio's outing today. He flooded the strike zone with a 56.7% zone rate. He also limited hard contact with a .274 xwOBACON. Those are two mature tools that aren't typical for teenage pitchers. On the other hand, he only had a 15.4% chase rate and 9.1% whiff rate. He located more of his pitches down in the zone, especially his four-seamer. Additionally, the four-seamer, despite averaging 97.1 MPH, had only a 95 TJ Stuff+ with an 11.5 iVB. Those aren't exactly great metrics, especially for a prospect of Chourio's caliber. Granted, Chourio produced results, which is what one wants to see in a showcase like this. However, for those fans thinking that Chourio is knocking on the door of the Royals' rotation soon, they may need to cool their jets. Chourio still has a bit of work to do with the shape of his pitches, especially his four-seamer. Blake Mitchell, C Despite the Jensen hype, Mitchell is proving this spring that Royals fans and prospect experts shouldn't sleep on Mitchell's outlook for 2026. The 2023 first-round pick had a nice day on Friday at the plate. He went 1-for-3 with a walk and a three-run home run, which he launched in the top of the fifth off Rangers lefty Josh Trentadue. That kind of easy power, especially against a lefty and to the opposite field, is why the Royals drafted him eighth overall out of high school in 2023. In fact, his power has been a nice development this spring for the Royals in limited Spring Training action. In 11 plate appearances, he has a double and a home run and is posting an OPS of 1.031 and an ISO of .444. He still isn't hitting for a high average (.222), and he continues to show issues with contact and whiffs. That said, the exit velocity and hard-hit numbers have been off the charts for Mitchell this year in limited action. Mitchell knows what he is as a hitter, and he has done a good job this spring of not chasing (97th percentile O_Swing%) while generating walks and maintaining a powerful stroke. Will that approach hold in Double-A (his projected starting level), or will he get exposed? Royals fans will find out in 2026, but right now, it's looking more like the former. Blake Wolters, RHP Wolters didn't have a great performance in the Spring Breakout. In 1.1 IP, he allowed two runs on two hits and two walks and didn't strike out anyone. It was the typical Wolters performance: some intriguing stuff, but not many consistent results. Still, I was intrigued by his outing because one of his pitches really stood out on a TJ Stuff+ scale, as illustrated below. Yep, I'm sure you saw it too. That cutter. Wolters threw his cutter 14 times, good for a usage rate of 43.8%, his second-most thrown offering of the day. However, while he threw his four-seamer more (46.9% usage), his four-seamer only had a 93 TJ Stuff+ compared to the cutter's 110 TJ Stuff+. In terms of results, the cutter had a 33.3% whiff rate and .040 xwOBACON. That's much better than the zero percent whiff and .510 xwOBACON from his four-seamer. In terms of his other offerings, he didn't throw much else. He threw his sinker only twice and his changeup once. His changeup had a decent 99 TJ Stuff+ and 54 grade, but it was only thrown once, so not much could be taken away from that offering today. Wolters is definitely still a project who may be a reliever long-term unless something dramatic happens. He's a two-pitch pitcher, and he doesn't have much of a third offering, something critics have pointed out in the past. That said, Wolters is still 21, not Rule 5 eligible until December of 2027, and will be joining a loaded rotation in Quad Cities that will include Lamkin, Chourio, and Shields. I think Wolters could be in a situation where he could tap into his profile better, with the cutter being the pitch he builds around. Yandel Ricardo, 2B Ricardo was all the rage as a Royals prospect early in 2025, especially after he came out on fire in the Arizona Complex League. In 145 plate appearances, the Cuban-born teenager hit .342 with a 151 wRC+. He also had two home runs, scored 26 runs, collected 21 RBI, and stole 17 bases in 33 games. He also posted a 0.51 BB/K ratio, showing a mature approach for a hitter so young in the Complex League. As expected, the Royals promoted Ricardo to Low-A Columbia, and it was a more humbling experience. In 200 plate appearances with the Fireflies, he hit .212 with a 61 wRC+. He stole 14 bases and scored 24 runs in 50 games. However, he showed no power, with zero home runs and a .064 ISO. His plate discipline also waned a bit, as he only had a 0.32 BB/K ratio in Low-A ball. As a result, Ricardo went from a possible Top-10 or even Top-5 prospect midseason to No. 11 in our rankings. That said, Ricardo showed in the Spring Breakout that he may be bouncing back in 2026, likely in a repeat of Low-A ball. On Friday, the 19-year-old infielder went 1-for-1 with two walks and a double. He showed strong play in the field and had a mature approach at the plate. If that wasn't enough, he has also shown solid metrics in Spring Training, albeit in an extremely limited sample (three plate appearances). What can we tell from his TJ Stats Summary? Ricardo doesn't chase; he's selective with his swings, and he has power potential for a 180-pound teenager. Once he gains more experience and strength, he could be a monster, especially with his raw tools and athleticism. Royals fans shouldn't be surprised if he takes a step forward in Low-A ball and looks more like his Complex League version from 2025. View full article

Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images On Friday afternoon, a couple of new stories broke that seemed to clarify what the Kansas City Royals' pitching staff will look like on Opening Day in Atlanta, which is one week from Friday. The Royals have seven days until their 2026 opener and 10 days until their home opener at Kauffman Stadium. Thus, the news with pitching is expected, especially as Kansas City tries to juggle the rotation and pitching matchups for these final spring contests. Kansas City Options Avila and Cruz to Omaha Shortly before the Royals' Spring Training contest against the San Francisco Giants, the Royals announced the optioning of pitchers Luinder Avila and Steven Cruz to Triple-A Omaha. The move brings the Royals' Major League Spring Training roster to 47. The Royals' decision to option both pitchers isn't totally surprising. Both pitchers have Minor League options and didn't have clear roles going into Spring Training. The Royals still view Avila as a potential starter, and he didn't get a ton of work as expected this spring due to his participation with Team Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic. Still, his numbers were pretty stellar when he did pitch in Spring Training. In six innings of work, he had a 1.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 1.82 FIP with 30.4% K% and 21.7% K-BB%. He also had solid TJ Stuff+ metrics, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary below. In addition to having a 101 TJ Stuff+ this spring, he had a 33.9% chase rate and 35.3% whiff rate. His .443 xwOBACON was a bit high, and his 43.3% zone rate was the lone blemish on his performance this spring. In a piece posted by Rogers shortly after the Royals announced the moves, the Royals plan to have Avila stretched out so he can seamlessly rotate between the rotation and the bullpen. Furthermore, manager Matt Quatraro emphasized the need for Avila to throw more innings, and that would be easier to do in Omaha than in Kansas City. As for Cruz, it seemed like he was the victim of an option "crunch" in the bullpen, especially with Alex Lange and Bailey Falter being out of options, according to Quatraro. In seven innings of work, Cruz posted a 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 1.72 FIP. He also had a 27.6% K% and 20.7% K-BB% and generated some excellent TJ Stuff+ metrics, as seen below. Cruz sported some of the best stuff on the Royals' pitching staff this spring with a 104 overall TJ Stuff+, which included a four-seamer with a 105 TJ Stuff+ and a slider with a 108 TJ Stuff+. The 26-year-old didn't generate the most chase (26.1%), but he flooded the zone well (51.1%), generated whiff (27.1%), and limited hard contact (.226 xwOABCON). If Carlos Estevez isn't ready for Opening Day (and he may not be, especially with his velocity so down), Cruz could be an option to fill in the bullpen if the Royals elect to begin Estevez on the 15-Day IL to begin the 2026 season. First Turn of Royals' Rotation is Set Earlier in the afternoon, before the Spring Breakout game between the Royals and Rangers top prospects, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reported that the Royals had set their first "turn" of the rotation. That included the Opening Day series in Atlanta and the one against Minnesota in Kansas City. The rotation is not a surprise, especially since this was the expected projected group before Spring Training began. After Ryan Bergert was optioned to Omaha, it seemed like a done deal that Noah Cameron would have the last spot in the Royals' rotation. There was some concern from fans about having three lefties in a row go in the Twins series (Kris Bubic, Cameron, and Cole Ragans). However, Quartraro seemed to downplay those notions and was more concerned about having their best pitchers go, regardless of matchup or order. The Royals' rotation had the seventh-best ERA in baseball in 2025. With a healthy Ragans and Bubic returning, and depth with Bergert, Falter, and Stephen Kolek (who will start the year on the IL), they certainly will have a chance to perform better than last year's mark, even with the changed ballpark dimensions. View full article

Agreed. His command has been inconsistent, for as good as the stuff is, he can be prone to some bad outings. His FIP did outperform his ERA with the Royals, and I think Spring Training was a rough small sample. I think some refinement in Omaha could help him be ready for an early call-up, especially if an injury happens to someone on staff.

Image courtesy of Sam Navarro-Imagn Images Team USA fell short for a second-straight World Baseball Classic. In 2023, they lost to Shohei Ohtani and Team Japan. This time, on March 17th, they lost 3-2 to Team Venezuela, a team led by Royals players Salvador Perez and Maikel Garcia, the latter of whom was named MVP of the WBC. For Team USA and fans, it was a frustrating end to a promising World Baseball Classic. However, Royals fans were able to see star Bobby Witt Jr. show glimpses of his potential on the big stage. In 24 WBC at-bats, Witt slashed .250/.400/.333 with a .733 OPS. He had two doubles, three stolen bases, and scored three runs. Furthermore, he made some incredible defensive plays at shortstop, showing the world why he won a Platinum Glove last season. That said, the biggest development for Witt in the WBC was not only him hitting leadoff, but succeeding in the spot, especially when it came to plate discipline. Witt's Performance at Leadoff in the WBC In his six-game sample in the World Baseball Classic as the USA leadoff hitter, Witt had six walks to only five strikeouts. That is good for a BB/K ratio of 1.20, which is 0.84 points higher than his career BB/K ratio. While he didn't get as many hits as he would've liked (six), he also had a .400 OBP, which was tied for third-best on the USA roster with Gunnar Henderson and Roman Anthony. Furthermore, as the USA leadoff hitter, his Statcast percentiles were similar to those Royals fans saw from Witt in 2024 and 2025, as seen below via TJ Stats. Witt posted only a .309 wOBA, ranking in the 36th percentile. However, he had a .434 xwOBA, ranking in the 89th percentile. In terms of exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit rates, Witt did with Team USA what he has done with the Royals. His average EV ranked in the 95th percentile, his barrel rate ranked in the 91st percentile, and his hard-hit rate ranked in the 88th percentile. The 25-year-old shortstop has always shown an ability to hit the ball hard at the Major League level. That said, he has historically had an over-eager approach. Last year, not only was his BB/K ratio 0.39, but he also ranked in the 32nd percentile in O-Swing% (30.6%) and 25th percentile in BB% (6.0%). Below is his complete Statcast profile from 2025 via TJ Stats. His 2025 Statcast profile and WBC-specific one don't look all that different at the top of each summary. However, here are some key categorical differences. 40% Swing% in WBC to 51.1% Swing% in 2025. 18.2% BB% in WBC to 6.0% BB% in 2025. 27.2% O-Swing% in WBC to 30.6% O-Swing% in 2025. 17.9% Whiff% in WBC to 23.8% Whiff% in 2025. Of course, this is a 33-plate-appearance sample to a 687-plate-appearance one. Thus, a grain of salt should be taken here, given Witt's major improvement in those four categories. Nonetheless, if Witt can carry over this approach somewhat to the regular season, he would be the Royals' best leadoff candidate in 2026 and beyond. Witt's Previous Leadoff Struggles and Other Options The only issue with Witt being the Royals' leadoff hitter on Opening Day is that he doesn't have a great track record at the top of the order. According to Fangraphs splits, in 201 plate appearances at leadoff, he has a .204 batting average, a 0.20 BB/K ratio, a .620 OPS, and 62 wRC+. Leadoff has been his worst spot in the batting order by a significant margin. Except for fifth, which he has only 8 plate appearances, the next-lowest batting-order wRC+ is third at 119. For context, he has accumulated 2,154 plate appearances in the second spot in the batting order, which is the most of any spot for Witt. He has a 0.40 BB/K ratio, .301 average, .870 OPS, and 136 wRC+ in that second spot in the order. Thus, manager Matt Quatraro has no reason to move Witt, especially since he has been so good at the No. 2 spot. However, the leadoff spot has been a thorn in the Royals' side, especially in Quatraro's tenure as manager. Since 2023, Royals leadoff hitters have posted an 82 wRC+, ranking 28th in baseball, according to Fangraphs. Thus, Kansas City doesn't have a great history in this spot, despite GM JJ Picollo's best efforts. The Royals acquired Jonathan India from Cincinnati to handle leadoff duties last year, but he had a down season in his first year in Kansas City. He posted an 89 wRC+ and .669 OPS in 567 plate appearances last season. That isn't exactly the profile of a player getting everyday at-bats at the top of the lineup. He has had a better spring and continues to be solid in the chase and walk categories, but his lack of exit velocity and barrel ability make him a one-dimensional option. Isaac Collins was acquired by the Royals this offseason, and he fits the disciplined approach that Kansas City wants at the top of the lineup. As a rookie in Milwaukee last year, he posted a .368 OBP and 122 wRC+ in 441 plate appearances with the Brewers. However, he hasn't been the most healthy this spring, and his Cactus League Statcast percentiles have been meager beyond exit velocity and O-Swing%, as illustrated below. The last option could be Garcia, who may be one of the hottest players in baseball right now, especially after his WBC MVP run with Team Venezuela. However, much like Witt, Garcia doesn't have a great history at leadoff. In 885 career plate appearances at leadoff, Garcia has slashed .257/.308/.357 with a .665 OPS and 83 wRC+. He has a 0.40 BB/K ratio at leadoff, but his power has been paltry, as evidenced by his .100 ISO. For comparison, let's see how Garcia has performed in the No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, and No. 5 spots in the batting order in his career with the Royals. No. 2 (31 PA): 1.25 BB/K ratio, .320 average, .160 ISO, and 157 wRC+ No. 3 (99 PA): 0.89 BB/K ratio, .286 average, .198 ISO, and 127 wRC+ No. 4 (285 PA): 0.71 BB/K ratio, .260 average, .143 ISO, and 100 wRC+ No. 5 (184 PA): 0.52 BB/K ratio, .293 average, .138 ISO, and 119 wRC+ Thus, Garcia may be better served in run-driving situations in the batting order (No. 2-5) than run-scoring ones (leadoff). Additionally, the 26-year-old Venezuelan has incredible plate discipline, but he has strong, hard-hit contact ability that could be more valuable in the 2nd through 5th spots in the batting order, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary this spring. Thus, the Royals certainly have a dilemma at the leadoff spot, which is important to address to improve their offense in 2026 (they ranked 26th in runs scored last year). There are certainly options available, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Quatraro mix up the leadoff hitter from time to time, depending on the pitching matchups. That said, Witt is the Royals' best hitter, and a big year from him will be key to the Royals' postseason chances. It would make sense to ensure he gets as many plate appearances as possible in a given season. The main way to do that? Put him at leadoff on Opening Day in 2026 and keep him there for the remainder of the season. View full article

On Wednesday, the Kansas City Royals announced that they had optioned right-handed pitcher Mitch Spence to Triple-A Omaha to begin the season. This latest move now brings their Major League Spring Training roster to 49. Spence was acquired by the Royals from the Athletics this offseason in exchange for right-hander A.J. Causey. Spence was the top overall pick in the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, and he pitched two seasons with the Athletics before arriving in Kansas City. In 2024, the former Yankee pitching prospect was a hybrid arm for the Athletics, making 35 appearances (24 starts) and pitching 151.1 innings. In that sample, he posted a 4.58 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, a 4.14 FIP, and 12.6% K-BB%. He took a step back in his second year with the Athletics, pitching only 84.2 innings and making only eight starts (32 total appearances). In that more abbreviated campaign, Spence posted a 5.10 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, a 5.06 FIP, and 10.7% K-BB%. His Statcast percentiles were also a bit mixed last year, as seen below via his TJ Stats Statcast summary. The 27-year-old did a good job of generating whiffs, limiting walks, and generating chase and groundballs last year with Sacramento. However, he also gave up a lot of hard contact, and that hurt him in Sacramento's hitter-friendly confines. He posted a 6.93 ERA at home compared to a 3.64 ERA on the road. Thus, the move to Kauffman Stadium should help Spence in 2026. This spring was a rough one for Spence, albeit a limited sample. In three appearances (two starts) and 7.0 IP, he posted a 10.29 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 7.53 FIP, and 3.0% K-BB%. Spence has been hurt by the long ball, as evidenced by his 28.6% HR/FB rate. However, his TJ Stuff+ metrics have been encouraging, as shown in his TJ Stats summary below. Spence had a 106 overall TJ Stuff+ this spring with his cutter (108), slider (111), and curveball (101) all rating as above-average pitches. He generated a 31.6% chase rate, which was above average, but his zone rate and whiff rate were slightly below average, and his xwOBACON of .424 was well below average. Thus, it was more of a command issue for Spence in Cactus League play, and hopefully, he can work that out in Omaha. With the Spence move, Bailey Falter, Alex Lange, Hector Neris, and Eli Morgan are the main relievers remaining in camp. They are battling for two spots in the Opening Day bullpen. Lange and Falter are likely the favorites for those remaining spots, especially since they are out of Minor League options. Morgan has had a strong spring for the Royals, however. The former Cleveland reliever is posting a 1.17 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 1.80 FIP, and 18.8% K-BB%. He has also shown solid Statcast percentiles this spring in his Cactus League sample. Morgan does have a Minor League option remaining, but if he doesn't make the Major League squad out of Spring Training, he could opt to find a spot in the bullpen on another MLB team. Thus, it will be interesting to see what the Royals will do with Morgan, especially in the wake of the Spence move and Opening Day only nine days away. View full rumor

Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images On Tuesday evening, during the World Baseball Classic, the Royals announced via social media that they would option pitchers Ryan Bergert and Mason Black and outfielders Kameron Misner and John Rave to Triple-A Omaha. They also announced that they would be assigning reliever Helcris Olivarez to Minor League Camp. Bergert is the most high-profile player of this group not to make the Opening Day roster. The 26-year-old showed promise last year after being acquired from the Padres with Stephen Kolek for Freddy Fermin. That said, much like last year, consistency proved to be a problem for the talented righty. Bergert made four starts in Cactus League play and pitched 9.2 innings. In that sample, he posted a 6.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 9.41 FIP, and 11.9% K-BB%. He showed excellent stuff this spring, as his 102 TJ Stuff+ was the fourth-best mark of Royals pitchers this spring, according to TJ Stats. However, he struggled with his command, as illustrated by his 38.5% HR/FB% and 43.5% zone rate. His overall Statcast percentiles were promising, for the most part. Conversely, it makes sense for the Royals to let him develop as a starting pitcher in Omaha, where he will get regular innings. Black was acquired from the Giants this offseason, and his role seems to be fluid when it comes to whether he will start or pitch in relief in 2026. That said, the former top San Francisco pitching prospect held his own in Cactus League play, which made his demotion tough for the Royals. In six appearances and eight innings pitched, he posted a 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 2.23 FIP, and 15.6% K-BB%. Black didn't generate a lot of chase (16.7% O-Swing%), and his stuff was a bit inconsistent (95 overall TJ Stuff+). However, he showed that he can throw strikes (28.5% CSW), limited contact on pitches in the zone (78th percentile Z-Contact%), and he could be an option in the bullpen if injury or ineffectiveness hit one of the projected Royals relievers. The last pitcher to be cut from the Spring Training roster was Olivarez, who was also acquired from the Giants this offseason. Olivarez had one of the most electric fastballs in Spring Training, velocity-wise. His 97.5 MPH fastball velocity was the second-best mark of Royals pitchers this spring, behind only Dennis Colleran (97.9 MPH FB velocity). Unfortunately, control was an issue for the lefty. In addition to an 8.53 ERA and 1.74 WHIP, Olivarez posted a 42.5% zone rate and a 16.1% BB%, the latter ranking in the 12th percentile. He also didn't generate many strikeouts (19.4% K%) or chase (18.5% O-Swing%). The 25-year-old sports a strong curveball, which had a 108 TJ Stuff+, but his four-seamer, which has good velocity, still needs refinement. The four-seamer had a 98 TJ Stuff+, which is slightly below average. There's no question that Olivarez isn't ready yet, but he could be mid-season, especially if he can improve his four-seamer and generate more swing-and-miss in the Minor Leagues, whether it's in Omaha or Northwest Arkansas (likely the former). On a positive note, he showed a strong ability to generate groundballs, as his 77.8% GB% ranked in the 99th percentile this spring. In terms of hitters, Rave and Misner were optioned to Omaha, which makes sense after the acquisition of Starling Marte this spring. Neither Misner nor Rave hit for a high average this spring, as they posted batting averages of .226 and .231, respectively. However, Misner outperformed Rave overall in Cactus League play. In 36 plate appearances this spring, Rave posted a .713 OPS and had two doubles, two triples, and two stolen bases. Rave did a good job of pulling the ball in the air, but he struggled in nearly every other Statcast category this spring, as illustrated in his Statcast summary from TJ Stats. Misner, on the other hand, showed some solid power and plate discipline this spring but lost out due to a crowded outfield situation. In 30 plate appearances, he posted a .333 OBP, .462 slugging, and .795 OPS. He had a homer, a triple, a double, and six RBI this spring and generated a 15% barrel rate and 60% hard-hit rate. He also didn't chase much, as evidenced by his 22.9% O-Swing%, which ranked in the 71st percentile, according to TJ Stats. With a strong ability to launch the ball this spring (98th percentile LA Sweet-Spot%) and pull the ball in the air (86th percentile Pull Air%), he could be similar to MJ Melendez in terms of power and on-base potential, even if the batting average may be lackluster. Misner could find himself back in the Majors if injury befalls one of the outfielders in 2026, and he could provide sneaky production if given the opportunity. View full article

Image courtesy of Sam Navarro-Imagn Images Without a doubt, one of the biggest beneficiaries from the World Baseball Classic may be Jac Caglianone, the projected Opening Day right fielder for the Kansas City Royals. Team Italy's dream run ended on Monday night, as they lost to Team Venezuela 4-2 in Miami. That sets up a massive WBC championship matchup between Venezuela and Team USA, which is trying to win its first WBC since 2017. While Team Italy's journey ended in the semi-final, their stellar performance allowed Caglianone to get some much-needed at-bats against good competition. There was some worry initially that Caglianone's absence from the Royals camp due to the WBC could affect his work with the Royals' new assistant hitting coaches. However, if anything, he showed the same kind of approach in the WBC that he did in Cactus League play, which should bode well for him with Opening Day roughly eight days away. Let's explore how Caglianone did this spring, the changes he made from his rookie year with the Royals, and what fans can expect from the promising slugger this season. Caglianone Showed Progress in Arizona and WBC Caglianone didn't get a whole lot of plate appearances in Cactus League play before reporting to Italy for the WBC. That said, his small sample was stellar, with him showing growth in the right areas offensively. In six games and 20 plate appearances in Arizona, Caglianone slashed .400/.550/.733 with a 1.2833 OPS. He only struck out in 15.5% of at-bats and had a walk rate of 25.5%. Furthermore, the batted-ball metrics were excellent, as he ranked in the upper percentiles in 90th EV, Max EV, and xwOBA, as seen in his Statcast percentiles below. The power has always been Caglianone's calling card, especially in Spring Training. Last spring, he posted a 25% barrel rate, 50% hard-hit rate, and .667 ISO. However, the plate discipline was a lot more questionable last season in Arizona. In 23 plate appearances last spring, Caglianone had a swinging-strike rate of 13%, a swing% of 50%, and an O-Swing% of 34.1%. That hurt him in his transition to the Major Leagues, as his over-eager approach was exposed last season. That said, it's been a different story this spring, as the former Florida Gator has shown a more discerning approach at the plate. His swinging-strike rate is down to 10.3%, his swing% is 37.9%, and his O-Swing% is 23.4%. As a result, his O-Swing% ranks in the 67th percentile, a major improvement from his mark last spring. As a result, his better pitch selection has led to more pulling of the ball than a spring ago. His pull% is 42.3%, which is much better than his 21.4% pull% last spring. He still needs to work on launching the ball better, as his pull air% of 15.4% is 6 percentage points lower than a year ago. That said, it seems like Cags is seeing the ball better at the plate, which shows the progress he has made since his Royals debut. In the WBC, it's been much of the same for Caglianone with Italy. In 14 at-bats, he slashed .286/.500/.571 with a 1.071 OPS. He had five walks to four strikeouts, scored six runs, collected four RBI, and launched a home run against Ryan Yarbrough of Team USA in pool play. While he had only one home run, Caglianone had a patient approach that was valuable to Team Italy in the middle to lower end of the lineup. It seemed like he wasn't used as an everyday player initially (he sat out Italy's second game of pool play), but after his strong performance against Team USA, manager Francisco Cervelli made Caglianone a mainstay in the Italian lineup for the remainder of the WBC. Caglianone's .500 OBP was the third-best mark of Italian players, and 1.071 OPS ranked 7th. Issues With Chase and Launching the Ball It was a tough MLB debut for Caglianone in 2025. In 62 games and 232 plate appearances, he slashed .157/.237/.295 with a .532 OPS. He showed some solid exit velocity and hard-hit ability, but he failed to launch the ball and struggled with chasing out of the zone, as illustrated in his TJ Stats Statcast summary below. Last year, Caglianone ranked in the 8th percentile in O-Swing% and 71st percentile in Swing%. It's been the opposite story this spring, both in the Cactus League and the WBC competition. That is an encouraging sign that Caglianone is not only developing better pitch recognition but is relaxing and not pressing at the plate, something he struggled with in 2025. The main area of focus will be Caglianone launching the ball, as his 30.4% LA Sweet-Spot% ranked in the 20th percentile last year. We haven't seen a ton of progress in this area, as his 26.9% LA Sweet-Spot% this spring is actually lower than his mark in the 2025 regular season. That said, it is such a small sample, so some time for adjustment may be needed, especially for a hitter as talented as Caglianone. When looking at his radial chart from last year via Savant, he hit so many balls on the ground, both of the fielding out and base hit variety. For a hitter with elite exit velocity and hard-hit skills, that needs to improve. He has been pulling the ball better in the air this spring, as his 15.4% pull air% is 3.4% higher than his regular-season mark last year. His 9.0-degree average launch angle is also 4.9 degrees better than his average launch angle from his Royals debut. Thus, baby steps are being made for Caglianone this spring, which is promising. Another promising development for Calgianone is his gradual improvement in Ideal Angle% over the course of the season. Below is the definition of Ideal Attack Angle and why it's important, according to MLB.com. Here's a look at Caglianone's Ideal Attack Angle rolling chart from last year, via Savant. Caglianone showed some initial progress, but hit a wall around the 150th to 225th competitive swing range. However, after that 225th swing, he ended up seeing a positive Ideal Angle% trend and ended up being an above-average hitter in this category by the conclusion of the season. Caglianone, carrying this positive trend into 2026, will help him get off to a much better start in his sophomore season with the Royals. Final Thoughts on Caglianone's Spring The Royals do not need Caglianone to be a "savior" of this Royals lineup, as was the case last June when they called him up to the big leagues. The top of Kansas City's lineup is well-established with Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez. These four guys will carry the Royals offensively and should be due for strong years, even if one or two of them regress. Furthermore, the floor of this Royals lineup is better with Jonathan India and Michael Massey looking to bounce back, and newcomers Isaac Collins and Starling Marte giving Kansas City some professional at-bats at the bottom of the lineup. Lastly, don't forget Carter Jensen, who had a sensational rookie campaign in September and has been looking good this spring with an .880 OPS in 32 plate appearances. In addition to posting solid Statcast percentiles, especially in terms of exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and O-Swing%, he has launched three home runs this spring. That included this 438-foot one below from a few days ago against the Diamondbacks. Thus, the Royals need Cags to do what he's been doing this spring with the Royals and Italy. If he can be a solid bat in the middle of the lineup, Kansas City will be more than happy. Here are a few projections for Caglianone in 2026: ATC: 496 plate appearances, 19 home runs, 58 runs scored, 64 RBI, 100 wRC+ The BAT X: 496 plate appearances, 16 home runs, 56 runs scored, 60 RBI, 90 wRC+ ZiPS: 524 plate appearances, 23 home runs, 64 runs scored, 71 RBI, 109 wRC+ If Caglianone can produce something in the range of those three projections, not only will the Royals be a playoff team, but they will have a player in Caglianone who may be worth a long-term extension at the conclusion of the 2026 season. View full article

On Tuesday, during the Royals' evening Spring Training game against the Dodgers, Kansas City announced that Cole Ragans would be the Opening Day starter for their first game against Atlanta on March 27th. This will be the third-straight Opening Day start for Ragans, as he toed the rubber for the Royals on Opening Day in 2024 and 2025. This will be his first Opening Day start away from Kauffman Stadium. Manager Matt Quatraro was highly complimentary of Ragans after sharing the news. He pointed out in the Rogers piece that the 28-year-old ace will be key to their playoff chances in 2026. Ragans is coming off a tough 2025 marred by injury. He only made 13 starts for the Royals and pitched 61.2 innings in 2025. The ERA was high at 4.67, but his WHIP was 1.18, his FIP was 2.47, and his K% and K-BB% were solid at 38.1% and 30.4%, respectively. For context, his 30.4% K-BB% was 9.9 percentage points better than his 2024 mark. An issue for Ragans in 2025 was that he gave up more barrels and allowed fewer ground balls. That said, his percentiles otherwise were encouraging, as illustrated in his TJ Stats Statcast summary below. Ragans has been fully healthy this spring, making four starts and pitching 10.2 innings. The ERA is rough at 8.44, and he's been hurt by an 18.2% HR/FB rate. Conversely, his K% is 30%, his K-BB% is 24%, and the stuff metrics have been impressive, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary below. Even though the ERA isn't great, the solid TJ Stuff+ (104 overall), strong chase (31.1%) and whiff (35.5%) rates should make Royals fans encouraged that Ragans is not just ready for Opening Day, but for 2026 in general. View full rumor

Image courtesy of Denis Poroy-Imagn Images When it comes to evaluating pitchers and their pitches, pitch modeling is all the rage. Whether it's models from Eno Sarris (Fangraphs), Jeremy Maschino (Pitch Profiler), or Kyle Bland (Pitcher List), pitching models give us a chance to understand how the characteristics of a pitcher's particular offering contribute to preventing runs. Thomas Nestico's pitch model, TJ Stuff+, has been one of my favorite models, mostly because I believe in the data he selects and analyzes. Furthermore, TJ Stats' presentation of the data, especially through his pitcher summaries, makes the most sense to me for understanding pitch effectiveness. When it comes to what TJ Stuff+ does, there are three key characteristics: A full deep dive into the TJ Stuff+ process is available in this Medium article published by Nestico in 2024. With that context about TJ Stuff+, Nestico's TJ Stats site has seen massive improvement over the past year and has been one of the best resources this spring for acquiring and breaking down pitch-modeling data from Spring Training. With every MLB Spring Training ballpark having public Statcast data, fans can get a breakdown of pitcher TJ Stuff+ every outing and overall this spring as well. Thus, with Opening Day coming up in 10 days, I wanted to see which Royals pitchers have been the top performers this spring in TJ Stuff+, whether in Cactus League play or WBC competition. A full leaderboard of Royals pitchers and their TJ Stuff+ marks can be seen here. Let's take a look at five Kansas City pitchers who have thrived this spring in TJ Stuff+ and what Royals fans can take away from those particular pitchers' metrics in preparation for the upcoming season. Steven Cruz, RHP, 107 Overall TJ Stuff+ Cruz hasn't seen a whole lot of work this spring, as he has only pitched 4.2 innings and thrown 56 total pitches. However, in his limited work, the 26-year-old righty has been sensational on a TJ Stuff+ end. The 6'7 pitcher leads all Royals with a 107 overall TJ stuff+ mark this spring. That includes two pitches with TJ Stuff+ marks of 110: his four-seamer and slider. His four-seamer has been his best pitch not just in terms of velocity (96.6 MPH), but also whiff rate (70%) and xwOBACON (.274). The pitch has shown some growth for Cruz over the past year in generating better iVB while still maintaining the horizontal break (HB) that makes it a unique fastball offering. When he locates the four-seamer effectively in the zone (especially up), it can be an effective offering, especially in two-strike counts. Here's an example of Cruz pumping the four-seamer 101.2 MPH last year to Cal Raleigh and striking him out. His slider has also been an effective offering in terms of TJ Stuff+ and zone rate (58.8%). He hasn't generated as many chases (28.6%) or whiffs (18.2%) with his primary breaking offer, but he may still be working on the command of the pitch this spring. I think once he gets more ramped up, his slider will be an effective secondary offering for him. Last year, he produced a 24.5% whiff rate and .201 xwOBA on the slider. The only pitch that has been underwhelming is the cutter, which has a 99 TJ Stuff+. Cruz has been flooding the zone with the offering (69.2%), but it's been getting hit hard (.691 xwOBACON). The cutter was a great put-away pitch for him last year (36.4%), but it wasn't a great overall whiff pitch (19%). His cutter was his second-most-thrown offering last year (25.5%), so I wonder if Cruz will throw his cutter less and slider more in 2026, based on his Spring Training trend. Cole Ragans, LHP, 104 Overall TJ Stuff+ Ragans has been the Royals' second-best pitcher in terms of overall TJ Stuff+ and the best starter this spring in this category. He has four pitches with a 100 TJ Stuff+ or higher, including his four-seamer, slider, changeup, and cutter. He also has three pitches with 60 grades or higher (four-seamer, slider, and changeup). His four-seamer and slider have been his main weapons in Cactus League play, as Ragans has thrown them 53.4% and 18.7% of the time, respectively. His four-seamer is generating a 30.2% chase and 37.7% whiff, and his slider has a 47.8% cahse and 43.5% whiff. The four-seamer has gotten hit a bit hard, with a .535 xwOBACON. That said, it's Spring Training, and Ragans' command is still getting ramped up (46.6% zone rate). Ragans generated a 43.4% whiff rate and 28.9% put away rate on his slider in 2025. He threw it only 13.8% of the time last year, nearly 5% lower than his usage this spring. When the slider is working, it's his best swing-and-miss offering, as illustrated in this strikeout of Austin Hedges last year. He's only been using the knuckle curve sparingly this spring, with an 8.8% usage. That's four percent down from a year ago. However, it only has a 97 TJ Stuff+ and a 40 grade, so it makes sense why Ragans would opt for the slider more and the curve less in Arizona. It will be interesting to see if this usage breakdown carries over to the regular season. Ryan Bergert, RHP, 102 TJ Stuff+ The results haven't been great for Bergert this spring. After a strong start, he has a 6.52 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 9.2 IP. To make matters worse, his FIP is worse than his ERA at 9.46. That doesn't bode well for him getting a spot on the Opening Day, though Spring Training numbers always have to be taken with a grain of salt. On a positive note, the stuff has been solid for Bergert in Cactus League play. He has an overall TJ Stuff+ of 102 with four pitches with TJ Stuff+ marks over 100 (four-seamer, slider, sweeper, and curveball). He also has a chase rate of 36.5% and a whiff rate of 34.7%. What's interesting, however, is that despite those strong chase and whiff numbers, he has a pretty mediocre K% (19%). Thus, putting away batters has been a work in progress for Bergert this spring. An issue is that Bergert's control has been erratic, as evidenced by his 43.5% zone rate. One concerning pitch related to this trend has been his slider. It has a 106 TJ Stuff+ and some great chase (45.2%) and whiff (54.8%) rates. However, it has a 42.6% zone rate and .497 xwOBACON. A primary issue is that it hasn't been all that effective against lefties this spring, according to his heatmap data from TJ Stats. The slider has a 52.8% CSW and 80% whiff rate against righties. However, it has only a 16.7% CSW and a 9.1% whiff rate against lefties. He is also leaving the pitch a lot more in the zone against righties, which explains why he's not generating as many whiffs. Bergert has thrown the slider 19.6% of the time against lefties this spring, so it is used fairly often. Hence, ironing out the command on the pitch to generate more strikes, especially of the whiff variety, could make his slider more effective overall in 2026 (and thus help his strikeout problem in Spring Training). Dennis Colleran, RHP, 102 TJ Stuff+ Colleran has been one of the best non-roster invitee stories this spring for the Royals. In four innings of work in Cactus League play, he posted a 0.00 ERA, 0.25 WHIP, 1.65 FIP, and a 25% K% and K-BB%. When it comes to results, no NRI pitching prospect was more impressive than the former Northeastern product. In terms of TJ Stuff+ data, there was also a lot to like with Colleran this spring. The 22-year-old righty posted a 102 overall TJ Stuff+ with a 55.2% zone rate, 30.8% chase, 33.3% whiff, and .241 xwOBACON. All those metrics are not just above-average, but quite stellar. Even though Colleran was already sent to Minor League Camp for the remainder of Spring Training, he may be a candidate for a midseason or end-of-year call-up if he progresses in Minor League ball as expected in 2026. One of Colleran's most intriguing pitches was his four-seamer, which he threw 34.5% of the time this spring. The four-seamer averaged 98.2 MPH and had an excellent chase rate (33.3%), whiff rate (45.5%), and xwOBACON (.277). However, the TJ Stuff+ was mediocre at 99. When it comes to shape, Colleran's four-seamer is pretty atypical. It has more horizontal movement with a 12.7 HB. As a result, his iVB is lower than typical for a four-seamer, at 11.6. Colleran has a pretty horizontal arm angle at 19 degrees, so increasing the iVB should be possible. However, it's a bit flatter, moving more like a sinker than a traditional four-seamer. Here's a look at the heatmap data of Colleran's four-seamer, and it's interesting to note how much he left it in the zone this spring. Now, the middle location of those four-seamers didn't hurt him too much. He had a 33.3% CSW against lefties and 50% CSW against righties, as well as xwOBACON marks of .321 and .263, against lefties and righties, respectively. However, when it came to the quality of competition, he had an Opponent Quality of 6.4, according to Baseball-Reference. That is just below Double-A competition on their scale. Thus, Colleran still has some things to work on, especially with his four-seamer. The velocity is there. The swing-and-miss ability is there. However, generating a better shape on the pitch will help him in his transition to the Major Leagues, whether it's this year or next. Luinder Avila, RHP, 102 Overall TJ Stuff+ Avila has been one of the more intriguing pitchers for the Royals this spring, as his outlook for 2026 still feels a bit in flux. On one hand, it seems that Matt Quatraro and the organization believe Avila can still develop into a frontline starting pitcher at the MLB level. If that's the case, then it would make sense for Avila to begin the year in Triple-A Omaha so he can get starts and innings. That's hard to do now at the Major League level with a crowded Royals rotation. However, looking at his repertoire and TJ Stats summary, it's hard to fully buy into Avila as a starter for now. The Venezuelan-born pitcher has an elite curveball that demonstrated a 107 TJ Stuff+ and a 66 grade this spring. He had some trouble with locating it in Arizona, as evidenced by his 38.6% zone rate and 18.5% chase. However, he still had a 35.7% whiff rate on the pitch, which shows its effectiveness at generating swing-and-miss swings. The big area of focus with Avila is his fastball offerings, specifically his sinker and four-seamer. The pitches have average grades, with his sinker at 96 TJ Stuff+ and his four-seamer at 101 TJ Stuff+. That said, despite having a lower TJ Stuff+, this sinker has been more effective this spring for Avila, as he is generating a 37.5% chase, 35% whiff, and .171 xwOBACON with the pitch. His four-seamer has a better TJ Stuff+ but lags in whiff (15.4%) and xwOBACON (.627). What's intriguing about Avila's sinker and four-seamer is that when he's fully letting loose of it in high-pressure situations, like the WBC, he has seen a sharp jump in pitch quality. That was the case in Monday's WBC semi-final, as he went 2.1 IP and posted excellent stuff metrics in his relief appearance against Italy. Not only did Avila have a 106 overall TJ Stuff+ against Italy, but he had three pitches with grades over 70 (curveball, changeup, and four-seamer), and all of his pitches were over 60. He didn't generate a lot of whiff (11.8%), but he did a solid job when it came to inducing chase (38.9%) and weak contact (.291 xwOBACON). Thus, would Avila be better served in the bullpen, where his stuff could play up in the big, high-leverage moments? The data seems to point in that direction, though the decision will ultimately fall on Quatraro and GM JJ Picollo. Safe to say, after a strong MLB debut in 2025 (1.29 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 14 IP) and a strong spring in the Cactus League and WBC play, it will be tough to leave Avila off the Royals' Opening Day roster. View full article

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images The Royals have struggled to find consistent production at second base in the JJ Picollo era. In 2024, the Royals seemed to get solid production from the keystone with Michael Massey, Nick Loftin, Garrett Hampson, Adam Frazier, and Maikel Garcia all splitting time at the position. According to FanGraphs, the Royals' second baseman ranked 18th in baseball with 1.8 fWAR, with Massey leading the way at 1.7 fWAR. Thus, when Kansas City acquired Jonathan India from the Reds last season, it was assumed that the Royals' production at second base would improve as well. Unfortunately, that was far from the case. In 2025, the Royals ranked 28th in second-base fWAR, with a 0.0 mark. India led the way with a 0.4 fWAR, but that was a massive decline from his 2.9 fWAR in 2024 with the Reds. Furthermore, Massey had a -0.3 fWAR, and Loftin and Frazier combined for a 0.4 fWAR in 2025 (remember, Frazier didn't come until midseason). They also got middling production from Tyler Tolbert and Cavan Biggio at the position as well (combined -0.2 fWAR). The Royals seem okay running it back in 2026, hoping that India and Massey can bounce back to 2024 form. Kansas City could've non-tendered India, but they decided to bring him back for one more season. Massey isn't a free agent until 2029, but he's already 28 years old, and this is probably a crucial year for him if he wants to prove to Kansas City that he can be a long-term option. Let's break down the Royals' situation at second base in 2026 and what the depth in the organization looks like. Royals Second Basemen At a Glance Starter: India Backup: Massey Depth: Loftin, Tolbert Prospects: Peyton Wilson, Javi Vaz, Sam Kulasingam, Justin Johnson, Tyriq Kemp Royals fWAR Ranking Last Year: 28th out of 30 Royals fWAR Projection This Year: 28th out of 30 The Good A lot will be riding on India this year, as the Royals opted to bring him back on a one-year, $8 million deal. It seems expensive, especially since he not only posted a negative overall fWAR last year, but he also posted an 89 wRC+, a career-worst. That said, there are some promising signs this spring that hint that India will be able to put his lackluster first year in Kansas City behind him. First off, manager Matt Quatraro admitted in the offseason that playing India in multiple positions had a negative effect. He pointed that out at the Winter Meetings back in December. Last season, the Royals opted to let Massey be the everyday second baseman, and India rotated as a utility guy in left field and at third base at the beginning of the year. Unfortunately, the move was disastrous for India, especially on defense. India posted a -5 FRV in 3B, and that poor defense carried to second base, as he posted a -4 FRV at the keystone. The poor defense seemed to have a mental impact on India's bat, and he ended up having his worst season at the Major League level. Quatraro is intent on India being their regular second baseman, with Massey mixing in here and there based on matchups. So far this spring, it seems like that has helped India be in a better headspace in 2026. He's currently hitting .333 with a 1.206 OPS in 26 Cactus League plate appearances, and he's also showing some solid metrics in his Statcast summary this spring, via TJ Stats. Plate discipline has always been an area where India rates highly, so what he's doing this spring isn't a surprise. However, his 90th EV and Max EV rank in the 77th and 72nd percentiles, respectively, and his barrel rate ranks in the 85th percentile. While it's unlikely that he transitions those numbers to the regular season, if he shows any improvement in exit velocity and barrel rate in 2026, he could end up producing a lot more at the plate this year compared to his first season in Kansas City. Massey has also showcased solid skills this spring as well. That is encouraging to see, especially after his OPS went from .743 in 2024 to .581 last year. The former Illinois product is hitting .364 with a .962 OPS in 24 Cactus League plate appearances, and he is showcasing solid skills this spring, especially in terms of launching, pulling, and hitting the ball hard. Massey and India may not be great second basemen individually, which explains why Quatraro hasn't really given either guy the regular position for now. That said, they are showing promising signs for an offensive comeback in 2026. Furthermore, they should both be better defensively at second base this season, as long as they can stay healthy. The Bad The problem at second is that there isn't much depth. Yes, India and Massey could be a nice combo, but they have a history of injuries, especially for Massey. In fact, Massey has been shut down for a little bit this spring due to a low-grade calf strain, according to MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers. After Massey, the Royals don't have a whole lot of options at second to challenge India. Loftin has had a good spring, hitting .300 with a 1.000 OPS in 35 Cactus League plate appearances. However, he's limited defensively, and he probably fits better at third base or in left field. Tolbert is a little bit better defensively than Loftin, and he is a plus base-runner. Conversely, he may be more of a pinch-runner type than a guy who can play semi-regularly. If Massey is expected to be out for a considerable amount of time, it wouldn't be surprising for the Royals to add Josh Rojas, who is primarily a third baseman but can play second base in a pinch. Rojas is hitting .258 with a .909 OPS this spring in 36 plate appearances. In terms of prospects, there are some gritty, high-floor types, but no one is ready to be a major impact player at the MLB level this season. Wilson has some power upside for a second baseman, but he strikes out way too much. Vaz is a high-contact hitter, but he offers no power and has been absent this spring, which is a sign he may be injured. Kulasingam is a gamer who offers a polished skill set at the plate and on the field. However, he hasn't showcased much in the power end this spring, as illustrated by his TJ Stats Statcast summary. Johnson and Kemp are mid-round draft picks who played at Wake Forest and Baylor, respectively. However, they are long shots to see any playing time at the MLB level this year or next, and they are high-contact hitters who still have power questions, even for second basemen. The Bottom Line The Royals traded for India back in 2024 because they don't really have many second-base options in the system beyond Massey. Thus, India seemed like a reasonable gamble that could become a long-term option if things worked out, or could allow them to move around if Massey did break out. Massey hasn't broken out, and India doesn't seem likely to stay in Kansas City beyond 2026. Nonetheless, they still offer some upside and production potential in 2026, as long as they stay healthy. I tend to believe more in India than in Massey, simply because India has a stronger proven track record. The 29-year-old infielder has a career fWAR of 7.9 in 659 games, and he had 100+ wRC+ marks in 2023 and 2024 in Cincinnati. Massey may be better served anyway as a player with 300-350 plate appearances per year. That could allow him to maintain his health and body a bit better over a full 162-game season. Regardless, second base production for the Royals will ride on India and Massey in 2026. Should one of them get hurt or be tanked, they will likely need to trade for someone from outside the organization to fill that spot. Perhaps Frazier for a third time? View full article