What's the Deal With Vinnie Pasquantino's Bat Speed?

It's been a brutal start for the Kansas City Royals offensively this season. Going into Wednesday's game, they ranked 25th in home runs, 26th in batting average, 27th in OPS, and 28th in runs scored. That's not encouraging for a team that has aspirations to return to the postseason after missing out in 2025.

There have been many hitters who have struggled for the Royals through 18 games, but no Royals player has been as bad as Vinnie Pasquantino, who is hitting .138 with a .391 OPS in 76 plate appearances. Not only has Vinnie struggled with his results in his traditional metrics, but his Statcast percentiles, especially in the exit velocities and hard-hit categories, have been particularly poor to begin the season as well

That is evident in his TJ Stats Statcast summary below.

Now, to be optimistic with Pasquantino, he also had similar struggles out of the gate in 2025.

In 2025, he hit .177 and posted a 49 wRC+ in April. In 2024, he hit .208 with a 96 wRC+. Thus, starting slow isn't exactly unfamiliar territory for the 28-year-old Royals first baseman.

However, even by his slow-start standards, this season has been especially bad, and he has seen a discouraging trend in his starts to the season over the past few years, particularly in his first 73 to 76 plate appearances. I Tweeted about this after the Royals' loss on Tuesday. 

It's one thing to start slow. It's another thing to be 56 points worse in wRC+ than a year ago, and 135 points worse than two seasons ago. Something has to be particularly off for a player to experience that kind of drop-off on the offensive end, barring an injury. 

Looking at his metrics on Baseball Savant, it seems Pasquantino's bat speed may be the culprit behind his struggles (though the reason for that decline is a trickier question to answer). 

A Sharp Decline in Vinnie's Bat Speed in 2026

Bat speed can be an important data point when evaluating hitters and their successes and/or struggles at certain points of the season. Often, good bat speed can lead to better outcomes, especially in power. MLB Tonight talked about the importance of bat speed for hitters in a segment a couple of seasons ago, which can be seen below.

When it comes to Royals hitters and bat speed, below is a table of current Kansas City players, organized by bat speed. It also includes other important metrics such as hard-swing%, squared-up%, swing length, and batter run value..

When it comes to bat speed, Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen rank at the top of the list for the Royals with average bat speeds of 76 MPH and 74.8 MPH, respectively. That said, the bat speed has produced mixed results for both. Jac and Carter have squared-up rates of 31.7% and 25%, and batter-run values of -3.4 and -1.3.

At the bottom of the list is Pasquantino, who has an average bat speed of 69.3 MPH this season. His squared-up rate is decent at 30.2%. However, -8.7 batter-run value is the worst mark of Royals hitters so far this year. 

The bat speed in 2026 is atypical for Vinnie. In 2024, his average bat speed was 71.7 MPH. Last year, it was 72.5 MPH. Thus, he's seen a 3.2 MPH decrease this year, and the drop has been very uncharacteristic of his hitting profile, as illustrated by his rolling bat speed chart below, via Savant. 

Pasquantino did have an increase in bat speed from 2024 to 2025, with the biggest gains being at the start of the season. That said, the increase in bat speed seemed to have counterintuitive results, as illustrated in his sub-50 wRC+ in the first month of play. 

Vinnie's bat speed and pull-heavy approach, which were a detriment at the beginning of the year, were discussed in a 2025 Pitcher List piece by Nate Schwartz. Here's a quote that talked about those bat-speed and pull issues and how he turned things around when he became more "natural" in his hitting approach. 

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With his typical contact-first approach, two other aspects of his game have surprising consequences: his bat speed is up, and he’s pulling more in the air. Usually, you hear that and consider them the perfect combination for power. His bat speed was up nearly 2.0 MPH higher in April than in 2024, so he potentially was trying to outswing his contact approach, leading to poor decisions. Pasquantino’s AirPull% is up 4% year-over-year, but that isn’t leading to better results. His success in May and June has come when he’s doing less of both, emphasizing his natural “hitter” archetype.

After a massive spike in bat speed at the beginning of the year, Vinnie settled in, and his bat speed produced similar MPH trends to what he did in 2024. As a result of this stabilization in bat speed, Pasquantino hit 32 home runs and posted a .798 OPS in 682 plate appearances, his best season yet at the MLB level. 

So far this year, it's not a spike in bat speed that's plaguing his hitting at the plate. Rather, it's a massive decline in bat speed. According to his rolling bat speed chart, his average bat speed has hovered below league average for most of the season thus far, sans a small stretch in his first 20 competitive swings of the year. 

While the squared-up rate hasn't been too strongly affected, the hard-hit rate has been a different story.

In 77 plate appearances, Pasquantino is producing a 33.3% hard-hit rate. That ranks him in the 14th percentile this year. Furthermore, when looking at his rolling hard-hit% chart on Savant, Vinnie has had some spikes in hard-hit rate. However, he's had considerable stretches where he's hovering between the 25-30% mark, as illustrated below.

For context, let's look at Pasquantino's rolling hard-hit% over his career and see what kind of peaks and valleys he's sported since debuting with the Royals in 2022.

Pasquantino has had some considerable drops in hard-hit rate before, so this isn't as dramatically new as the drop in bat speed. From the end of 2023 to the start of 2024, he had a hard-hit rate that hovered between the 20th and 30th percentiles for a 100 batted-ball stretch. That said, he was coming off an injury-shortened season in 2023, so the hard-hit rate struggles in 2024 were probably linked closely to that.

Without a major injury in 2025 or this spring, what's the excuse for the drop in hard-hit rate as well as bat speed this time around?

What Causes a Decrease In Bat Speed?

To get a better sense of what causes declines in bat speed, I decided to do what any curious millennial baseball fan with a laptop computer would do: I Googled it.

This is the answer that I got when I asked Google, "What contributes to a decline in bat speed in baseball?"

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Key factors contributing to decreased bat speed include:
Improper Equipment (Bat Weight): Using a bat that is too heavy (a low drop weight, such as -3 vs. -10) increases the bat's inertia, making it harder to accelerate quickly from a standstill, thereby reducing speed 

Mechanical Faults:

• Bat Drag: Occurs when the torso rotates forward while the hands and barrel lag behind, leading to a loss of efficiency and speed 
• Poor Sequence: Improperly sequencing the hips, torso, and hands reduces the ability to accelerate the barrel efficiently 

Physical Factors: Fatigue from a long season, overuse, poor nutrition, or lack of strength training directly causes drops in maximum bat speed 

Mental Approach: A passive, fearful, or non-aggressive mindset at the plate leads to slower, less intense swings 

External Conditions:

• Cold Weather: Lower temperatures can cause muscles to be less efficient and impact overall swing speed 
• Pitch Location: Challenging pitches (e.g., in on the hands) can prevent a hitter from extending and maintaining maximum speed 

 

When looking at Google's solutions, I felt two of the suggestions could be easily eliminated: Improper equipment and physical factors.

Regarding improper equipment, I guess we don't know for sure, but I don't believe Vinnie has started using a different size or type of bat. When it comes to physical factors, we're only 18 games into the 2026 season. If he's tired and fatigued now, I would have serious concerns about his conditioning and, honestly, general health.

Thus, there could be three issues contributing to Pasquantino's decline in bat speed: mechanical factors, external conditions, and/or mental approach.

In terms of the mechanics, I did take two clips of Vinnie's for comparison: one on a ground out from this year and one on a field out from last year, both coming on pitches thrown low and away. 

Both pitches are balls with movement, but there definitely seems to be less balance, and the sequencing seems a lot more off in his 2026 swing than his 2025 one. It's a small sample of swings, but it shows that there could be something mechanical going on with Vinnie's hands and torso that's preventing him from maximizing his bat speed.

In terms of the external factors, the Royals have played some cold-weather games in cold-weather cities to begin the year, with trips to Cleveland and Detroit being the primary ones. It was a bit of the same story last year with similar trips, so the struggles could be related to Vinnie's body not feeling fully loose in such frigid climates (though that wouldn't explain his stronger starts in 2023 and 2024). 

Regarding pitch location, Vinnie has been challenged, but his results chart shows he's getting pitches thrown in hittable areas of the zone. He's just not doing anything with them, as illustrated below in his pitch result chart via Savant.

Thus, that leaves the last factor: mental.

Honestly, I do think that so much of what is ailing Vinnie at the plate. He's a reflective player who is constantly thinking about the game and his approach. However, sometimes in sports, especially in baseball, it can be "paralysis by analysis". That feels like the case with Pasquantino through 18 games. He's thinking too much, maybe focusing on what he should be looking for and what he should be avoiding, and it's messing with his approach.

When looking at his TJ Stats Statcast summary from a year ago, the plate discipline and approach numbers aren't all that different. Rather, the big difference for Pasquantino from 2025 and this season is his batted-ball profile and strikeout rate. 

We know about the declines in exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and LA Sweet-Spot%. However, his K% in 2025 was 15.8%, which ranked in the 87th percentile. His K% this year? It's 23.3%, which ranks in the 40th percentile. That's a 47-spot drop and a 7.5% increase in strikeouts. 

For a hitter who is known for his contact ability, the increase in strikeouts is concerning. It may not be due to his actual skills, but rather his mental approach, as he seems to be pressing in two-strike counts. His win probability numbers show that problem as well. Through 18 games, he has -0.82 WPA, -0.60 WPA/LI, and -0.12 clutch. 

Being negative in those categories shows that Vinnie is struggling in key spots. With the skills, especially plate discipline, not being as different from his 2025 metrics, it may be what's going on in between the ears (i.e., confidence) that's contributing to his bat speed, rather than a physical or mechanical ailment. 

What to Think About Vinnie Going Forward?

To be honest, I am concerned about Vinnie.

A slow start from him isn't surprising, and he bounced back fine from a slow start in 2025. That said, he's a year older. He doesn't exactly have a frame that ages well. And while he is a leader in the clubhouse, I could also see being a player who puts a lot of pressure on himself, especially if he's not performing.

I think Pasquantino will get to a better form sometime soon. The batted-ball metrics will follow with an increase in bat speed, which I think will happen sooner rather than later, especially once Pasquantino gets on a hitting streak. It seemed like Vinnie took a step in the right direction in Wednesday's loss, with a triple that he launched 100 MPH with a bat speed of 82.5 MPH.

His last swing of Wednesday's game showed what Vinnie is capable of when things are clicking at the plate for him: good exit velocity, good launch angle, good bat speed, and some extra bases to show for it. 

The main question is now this: Can he string these kinds of swings together on a regular basis, especially in regard to bat speed? That is a tough question, especially since we don't have any idea of what his mindset is right now, with him mired in this slump. 

According to Fangraphs,  ZiPS is projecting Vinnie to hit 22 home runs and post a 108 wRC+ in 495 remaining plate appearances. While that would be down from his 32-HR mark in 2025, it would be welcomed by Royals fans, especially considering the offense's struggles as a team.

Pasquantino has the ability to reach that ZiPS ROS projection. However, he needs to start showing results sooner rather than later.

A home run in the series finale against Detroit would help Royals fans feel encouraged about Vinnie's outlook for the remainder of the season.