Changes Should Be Coming Soon to the Royals Bullpen

After winning 9-2 on Monday against the Reds, the Royals were hoping to take the series on Tuesday in Cincinnati. They seemed primed to do so, as they were up 3-0 at one point and up 3-1 going into the 8th inning. 

Unfortunately, as has been the case all season, the Kansas City bullpen failed to get the job done.

Matt Strahm allowed a solo home run in the eighth to make it a one-run game. Lucas Erceg gave up a solo home run in the ninth. And in the 10th, after the Royals failed to get a run across in the top of the inning, John Schreiber gave up a jam-shot single to Blake Dunn, whose base hit allowed Spencer Steer to score from second and win the game in extra innings for the Reds.

The Royals now have 12 blown saves, which ties them for the third-most in baseball with the Los Angeles Angels (the Nationals and Tigers have more than Kansas City). Their 5.08 bullpen ERA ranks 28th in baseball, and their 1.57 WHIP ranks last. While the offense certainly has been subpar this season (they stranded 12 runners on Tuesday), the bullpen has arguably been a bigger contributor to the Royals' overall woes in 2026. 

Thus, after another gut-wrenching defeat on Tuesday, what needs to happen to force Matt Quatraro to make some much-needed moves in the bullpen? And what are those moves that need to happen?

When diving into the issue, it may be a more complicated problem that goes beyond who Quatraro is utilizing in high-leverage spots, especially in the ninth inning.

Erceg and Strahm Not Getting the Job Done

The bullpen was initially seen as an area of strength going into Spring Training.

The Royals returned Carlos Estevez, who led the league in saves in 2025, only the second Royals pitcher to do so in franchise history (with the other being Dan Quisenberry). They also acquired veteran Strahm from Philadelphia in exchange for Jonathan Bowlan, who struggled to solidify a spot in the Royals' bullpen in 2025.

Royals GM JJ Picollo also traded for Nick Mears, who came along with Isaac Collins from Milwaukee in exchange for Angel Zerpa, and picked up Alex Lange, who the Detroit Tigers released in the offseason after struggling with injuries. Lastly, they returned a promising lefty in Daniel Lynch IV and veteran arms like Erceg and Schreiber, who had proved in the past couple of seasons that they could handle high-leverage spots.

Unfortunately, the bullpen has fallen apart in myriad ways this season, which explains why the team ranks near the basement in most categories. 

Estevez has been on the IL since a disastrous sole outing in Atlanta. Mears is also on the IL, and Strahm just recently returned. Lange has had moments, but he hasn't shown the ability to be a trusted reliever in high-leverage spots. Schreiber has been fine, but that's mostly due to a strong May, which made up for a slow start to the season. After barely getting any strikeouts in April, Schreiber has done a much better job of not just generating Ks, but also chases and whiffs, as evidenced by his TJ Stuff+ summary in May.

While Schreiber has been fine despite his bumpy start out of the gate, it's been quite the opposite for Erceg and Strahm. 

Strahm was expected to solidify this bullpen and be the Royals' primary left-handed setup man in the bullpen this season. Unfortunately, he just hasn't been consistent enough this season (when healthy).

In 18 games and 17.1 IP, the 34-year-old lefty is sporting a 4.15 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Both marks are much higher than the 2.74 ERA and 1.07 WHIP he posted in 66 outings and 62.1 IP with the Phillies a season ago. When looking at his TJ Stuff+ summary comparison, the stuff metrics have been lackluster, and the chase, whiff, and xwOBACON are all down from 2025 as well.

The only category that has remained stable is zone rate, and even that has seen a 0.3% decline. The four-seamer, despite sporting lower velocity, has been surprisingly effective, thanks to a 0.4-inch increase in iVB. That change has helped him maintain his TJ Stuff+ (103) and generate more whiffs, at 26.5%. That's a 1.9% increase in four-seam whiff rate from the previous season. 

Unfortunately, the stuff and whiffs are down across the board beyond the four-seamer, and that has resulted in his other pitches getting hit harder, as evidenced by increases in xwOBACON on those non-four-seam offerings. Then again, his four-seamer has gotten hit hard on occasion this year when not located properly, which was the case tonight on the home run he allowed to Steer.

Strahm has been disappointing. However, he hasn't been anywhere close to as bad as Erceg, whose ERA rose to 6.45 after he gave up the game-tying home run to pinch-hitter Will Benson in the bottom of the ninth with nobody out.

What's interesting about Erceg's outing today was that he didn't COMPLETELY implode as he did against the Rangers. After giving up the game-tying home run, he got out of the inning with two strikeouts (though he did have two walks). On a positive note, his TJ Stuff+ numbers were up, especially on his four-seamer and sinker, which were under 100 in previous outings.

Overall, Erceg had a 103 TJ Stuff+ with a 100 TJ Stuff+ on the four-seamer and 104 TJ Stuff+ on the sinker. Unfortunately, the results weren't good, despite the improvement in TJ Stuff+. He had a 37.5% zone rate, 13.3% chase, and .740 xwOBACON. Not only was he getting hit hard, but he just wasn't locating. That was further illustrated in his pitch type chart from today's outing via Baseball Savant.

Interestingly enough, the home run he allowed was on a tough pitch: a changeup on the outer edge of the zone. The pitches he threw in the middle? The Reds actually didn't do damage on any of them (Nathaniel Lowe actually struck out on the hanging slider in the middle of the zone).

Here's a look at the results of those pitches in his pitch description chart.

In some ways, Erceg showed improvement on Tuesday. However, as a closer, Erceg needs to produce results rather than "platitudes". Unfortunately, after blowing his sixth save of the year, the results aren't happening with Erceg, and they likely won't get any better if Strahm is put in the closer's spot.

Even if Strahm got the ninth and Erceg had the eighth, the results would still have been the same.

Does Daniel Lynch IV Deserve Save Opportunities?

When it comes to evaluating relievers, Win Probability data can be a good measure of a reliever's effectiveness in high-leverage spots. WP data isn't always sticky, especially from one season to the next. However, WP data can at least show which Royals have been effective in tough spots and who may be more dependable in those high-leverage spots in the short term.

Here's a look at the Royals' bullpen's WP data from this season, as of June 2nd (not including tonight's game). 

As one can see from the table above, Erceg has the worst Win Probability Added (WPA) of Royals relievers this season. He also has the highest gmLI, which measures the leverage a pitcher has when entering a game. Considering Erceg is the closer, it's not surprising that he has the highest gmLI of any Royals reliever this season.

In terms of gmLI, Strahm has the second-highest mark at 1.56, and Mears the third-highest at 1.48. The fourth-best mark belongs to Lynch at 1.43. Unlike Strahm, who has a slightly above-average WPA at 0.26, or Mears, who has a below-average WPA at -0.50, Lynch has the best WPA of Royals relievers, as evidenced by a 1.25 mark. 

In addition to an excellent WPA, Lynch also has a 0.49 clutch, which measures performance in high-leverage situations. His clutch is 0.22 points higher than the next-best mark, which belongs to Mason Black. Compared to Strahm and Erceg, the former Virginia product's clutch is 0.25 and 0.65 points better, respectively.

Thus, does Lynch deserve some opportunities to show what he can do in the ninth?

When looking at a couple of factors, Lynch is a tougher closer option for the Royals than his 1.93 ERA suggests.

In terms of TJ Stuff+ metrics, the chase, whiff, and xwOBACON numbers have been stellar. However, his zone rate has been subpar, and the TJ Stuff+ doesn't really profile as a closer candidate, as seen in his TJ Stuff+ summary below. 

Lynch only has three pitches with a TJ Stuff+ of 100 or better, and his overall TJ Stuff+ is 100. That ranks as the eighth-best mark among Royals pitchers this season, and his zone rate ranks 11th, according to TJ Stats leaderboards. That's not necessarily a detriment, especially since the Royals relievers haven't been much better (most of the pitchers ahead of Lynch in terms of TJ Stuff+ are starters). That said, it does imply that Lynch could experience some bumpy outings with the increase in leverage.

Speaking of leverage, there's no question that Lynch has been good in tough spots this year. That is evidenced by his team-best WPA and 11 shutdowns (SD), which is tied with Erceg for the most on the pitching staff. That said, Lynch doesn't have much experience in high-leverage spots, as seen in his career WP data below from Fangraphs.

As Royals fans can see above, this season is the first year in which Lynch has a gmLI over 1. Thus, Quatraro seems more comfortable putting him in high-leverage spots this year than in previous seasons. However, does that mean Quatraro has full confidence in Lynch in the ninth? That doesn't seem to be the case just yet, as Quatraro avoided utilizing Lynch in the save situation on Tuesday.

While the experience isn't there, Lynch has proven that he can at least produce results in tough spots this year, even with question marks in his TJ Stuff+ profile.

Let's hope that Quatraro gives Lynch a chance to close sooner rather than later. 

The Royals Need to Explore What They Have in the Bullpen

The reality for this club is that, at 23-38, they need to figure out what they have in the bullpen that can be pieces for the long term or potential trade assets ahead of the Trade Deadline. If a pitcher is not satisfying either of those goals, they need to be optioned or released.

The Royals took a step in that direction today before Tuesday's game, as evidenced by optioning Eli Morgan to Omaha and picking up the contract of Beck Way from Triple-A, who came over to the Royals from the Yankees in 2022 in the Andrew Benintendi deal.

Way didn't pitch on Tuesday, but he could give the Royals some much-needed upside and ability out of the bullpen. While his ERA was high at 4.50, his FIP was much better at 2.85. Furthermore, he also had a strong K-BB% (24.8%) and GB% (63%), as well as solid TJ Stuff+, whiff, and xwOBACON numbers, as demonstrated in his TJ Stuff+ summary from Omaha this season.

Way is an example of a reliever the Royals should give chances to for the remainder of the season. The same is true for Steven Cruz, Eric Cerantola, and Black. Maybe those relievers might be Four-A pitchers at the end of the day. That said, the Royals need to know for sure, and a suddenly "rebuilding" season is the best time to get those answers.

Of course, they shouldn't abandon their veterans either.

Erceg, Strahm, and Schreiber all need innings not to necessarily impact wins and losses with this Royals club, but to perhaps boost their trade value over the next month. It's unlikely that the Royals will hold onto any of those three relievers by the August 3rd Trade Deadline. Hence, Quatraro still needs to utilize those three in spots to improve their chances of getting a good trade return at the Deadline. 

The Royals shouldn't be buyers at any point this season. They need to be "sellers," and to do that, they need to understand and explore what they have, especially in the bullpen. That means innings need to go around across the board, even if it means some rough growing pains in the process.

It's tough that the 2026 season has turned out this way.

At the same time, the Royals have a chance to make the most out of a bad situation if they can "evaluate" and "boost" trade value in the bullpen effectively over the next two months.