Three Reasons to Stay Optimistic About the Royals

It was a tough series for the Royals in Detroit, as they were swept in three games. That included a brutal walkoff loss on Thursday, as Lucas Erceg was unable to hold a two-run lead in the ninth inning.

Unfortunately, things did not get much better on Friday evening in the Bronx. After Vinnie Pasquantino tied up the game at two in the top of the 8th with a solo home run, pinch hitter Ryan McMahon ended up hitting a two-run bomb off of Alex Lange, which ended up clinching the game for the Yankees. 

It's easy to get discouraged about the Royals after a tough start to the 2026 season. After a great showcase in the World Baseball Classic, Royals (and baseball) fans were optimistic about Kansas City's outlook for the upcoming season. Unfortunately, a lot has been similar to 2025, especially offensively.

Going into Friday's game against the Yankees, the Royals ranked 25th in batting average and OBP, 26th in OPS and runs scored, and 24th in home runs hit. Their 83 team wRC+ ranks 25th in baseball, according to Fangraphs. And if that isn't bad enough, the Royals' bullpen has struggled immensely through the first 19 games of the season.

A strength of the club in 2025 (Carlos Estevez led the league in saves last year), it's been an Achilles heel of the group, especially after Estevez went on the IL (though his one appearance against Atlanta wasn't encouraging either). Royals relievers rank 29th in ERA and WHIP, 27th in BB/9, 28th in H/9, and 26th in HR/9. When it comes to most bullpen results, Kansas City ranks toward the bottom of the league.

With a cold offense and a poor bullpen, it seems like Royals fans would be better off lowering their expectations for this team, perhaps thinking this is a replica of the 2025 team rather than the 2024 one that won a Wild Card series. However, I am going to share three reasons why Royals fans should remain optimistic, even after this bleak start to the 2026 campaign.

The Plate Discipline is Encouraging

One of the big priorities for the Royals this offseason, especially with the arrivals of new assistant hitting coaches Connor Dawson and Marcus Thames, was to limit the chasing at the plate. From 2024 to 2025, the Royals ranked 24th in baseball with a 29.5% O-Swing%. They also ranked 29th in BB% at 7.2%. While they ranked 10th in BB/K (0.38), they also ranked 21st in wRC+ (95).

This season, the BB% and BB/K ratio have seen encouraging gains.

They rank 17th in BB% at 9.6%, a 2.4% increase from the past two seasons. They rank a bit lower in BB/K ratio at 20th, but their 0.42 BB/K ratio is actually better than their combined ratio from the 2024 and 2025 seasons. 

The biggest improvement this season, though, has been in terms of O-Swing% (or chase). 

According to Fangraphs,  the Royals have a 26.7% O-Swing%, the fourth-best rate in baseball. That is a 2.8% improvement from their 2024-2025 average O-Swing%. When it comes to individual Royals hitters in terms of O-Swing%, here's how they have fared this season.

The Royals have five hitters with an O-Swing% below 25 percent so far this season. Carter Jensen, Jac Caglianone, and Michael Massey have rates under 30%. Massey being under 30% is a great improvement, especially since he had an average O-Swing% of 37.7% between 2024 and 2025. 

Thus, while the results haven't quite been there for Kansas City offensively, the plate-discipline processes, if maintained, should yield more fruit as the season goes on.

The Royals Are Still Hitting the Ball Hard

Kansas City has not hit many home runs, and its .346 SLG ranks 26th in baseball, according to Fangraphs. However, that doesn't mean that the Royals have only been producing "weak" contact this season.

The Royals rank second in average exit velocity on batted balls with a 90.5 MPH EV. That is second only to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Their 90th EV ranks second at 106 MPH, their Max EV ranks 6th at 116.1 MPH, and their hard-hit rate also ranks 6th at 42.7%. They also rank 7th in barrel rate at 9.6%. 

When it comes to how Royals hitters are performing in those Statcast categories on an individual basis, there's a lot to be encouraged about, especially when it comes to their exit velocities, as illustrated below. 

Starling Marte, Cags, Garcia, Witt, and Massey are the Top-5 hitters when it comes to exit velocity and are the only Royals hitters averaging 90+ MPH in EV. The Top-10 Royals hitters all have EV marks of 89 MPH or above. The only concerning ones with exit velocities under 88 MPH are Lane Thomas, Nick Loftin, and Jonathan India (though they help out more in the plate discipline categories). 

Royals fans know the hitters have improved their chase rate through 20 games this year. That said, that hasn't come at the expense of hitting the ball hard, either. Kansas City has hitters who can hit the ball hard and launch it effectively when they connect. Eight Royals hitters have a barrel rate sof 10% or higher, and Pasquantino has a 9.1% barrel rate that's growing after back-to-back games with home runs.

Unfortunately, those connections haven't clicked enough for the Royals this year in terms of on-base and run production. Garcia and Witt have xwOBA marks of .362 and .361, respectively. However, only Cags and Kyle Isbel are other Royals hitters with xwOBA marks over .320, and the bottom seven hitters have xwOBA marks under .300. 

Going into Friday, the Royals' team xwOBA was .306, which ranked 26th in baseball. Thus, Kansas City has to find a way to transition this solid contact ability into run production, especially with runners in scoring position. In RISP situations this season, the Royals have a .244 wOBA, the worst in baseball.

The Royals' Pitcher Stuff Has Been Okay (Despite Bullpen Issues)

When it comes to relievers, it's important to have pitchers that sport solid stuff profiles.

Last season, the Royals ranked 26th in baseball with a 97 overall Stuff+ rating, per Fangraphs. This season, they rank 29th with an overall 96 Stuff+ rating, down 1 point. 

Thus, why am I saying that their pitching stuff has been "okay" so far in 20 games? Well, they have had some stuff leaders dramatically drop, with Estevez being the prime example. He went from having a 103 overall TJ Stuff+ in 2025, when he led Major League Baseball with 42 saves, to 96 in his first and only appearances of 2026.

Here's a comparison of his TJ Stuff+ profile from last season and his lone outing this year, which came against the Braves.

Last year, Estevez not only had a 103 TJ Stuff+ but also had 60 and 57 grades on his four-seamer and slider, respectively. Furthermore, while he struggled to generate consistent chase (22.8%) and whiff (18.8%) last season, he still maintained a strong zone rate (55.7%) and a decent xwOBACON (.363).

This year, that zone rate is 40.7%, a 15% decline. He also has a .599 xwOBACON and a 96 overall TJ Stuff+, a seven-point difference from a year ago. His four-seamer and slider also have only 48 and 38 grades this season, and as a result, he threw his changeup much more this year, at 22.2%. Unfortunately, his changeup hasn't been much better stuff-wise, with a 50 grade. 

So the Royals' closer brings down the group quite a bit in the stuff rankings. However, if his velocity returns when he comes off the IL, then the bullpen looks a lot better than it is right now.

Let's take a look at how the Royals pitchers have fared this year, via TJ Stuff+ metrics. 

Estevez ranks near the bottom, unsurprisingly. Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Noah Cameron rank at or near the bottom quintiles, but they're starters more known for their command rather than their stuff. Furthermore, the lack of premium TJ Stuff+ marks hasn't hurt their effectiveness. They have ERA marks of 1.00, 1.48, and 3.94, respectively.

The bullpen has produced strong TJ Stuff+ marks despite poor results. The Royals have nine pitchers (seven relievers) who had TJ Stuff+ marks of 100 or higher. That includes Steven Cruz (109), Nick Mears (104), Luinder Avila (103),  Lucas Erceg (103), Alex Lange (102), Bailey Falter (101), and Matt Strahm (100). The only relievers under that century TJ Stuff+ mark are Eli Morgan (99) and John Schreiber (98). 

Thus, the Royals have guys who can bring it. I talked about that in a recent Twitter post reviewing the bullpen's poor performance on Thursday in the walkoff loss to the Tigers. Yes, the results were bad, but the stuff was surprisingly good from the three Kansas City relievers (Erceg, Mears, and Schreiber) who struggled in Detroit.

The Royals' bullpen definitely has a chase problem. They rank last in the league in reliever chase rate at 28.2%. Kansas City's relievers have to be better, especially with Estevez returning to full strength. Are the chase issues pitch-calling related? Command related? Control related? Or a whole different issue?

Regardless, the bullpen has plenty of arms who have solid arsenals that could produce a lot of strikes, both of the swinging and looking variety. Hence, fans should focus more on the TJ Stuff+ and how it could produce better outcomes down the road for these Royals pitchers rather than worry about this rough stretch of baseball, where the Kansas City relievers have looked downright terrible (which is saying something from a Royals fan).