Is Bobby Witt Jr. On the Verge of Breaking Out?

It's been a tough start to the 2026 season for the Kansas City Royals. Despite high hopes in Spring Training, the Royals are currently 5-7, having lost their most recent series to the Guardians in Cleveland. The Royals lost 10-2 on Wednesday in the series finale, a game that was marred by Cole Ragans being pulled in 0.2 IP due to getting hit in the hand by a Jose Ramirez line drive.

Thankfully, it seems like the injury isn't serious, and the Royals and Ragans are optimistic that he will be ready for his next scheduled start.

While the Royals' 10 runs allowed will jump out to frustrated fans, the lack of offensive production may be the more concerning development for this Kansas City team.

The Royals combined for only three runs and six hits over the past two games, and they scored seven runs in the three-game series in Cleveland (they won the first game 4-1). After getting off to a slow start in 2025 at the plate, it seems like the same trend is happening again in 2026.

Unfortunately, Bobby Witt Jr. has been one of the biggest hitters who has been struggling out of the gate for the Royals.

In 52 plate appearances, Witt is hitting .273 with a .660 OPS. While he has a .365 OBP, which is good, his slugging is only .295, and he has only one extra-base hit so far this season (an RBI double on Wednesday). For a hitter in the middle to the bottom of the lineup, this stat line is serviceable. However, for a No. 2 hitter in the lineup that is expected to carry this team offensively, this is not the start the Royals were hoping for.

Nonetheless, is Witt due for a down season in 2026? Or has he been bitten by some rough batted-ball luck and is due for regression soon?

Let's take a look at where he's struggled so far this year, what has been going well, and what Royals fans should expect from Witt going forward, perhaps as early as the upcoming series against the White Sox.

Struggling to Square Up Balls (Is Bat Speed and Tilt the Reason?)

When looking at his Statcast percentiles via TJ Stats, Witt has been pretty stellar in most categories, especially batted ball ones. That is illustrated in the TJ Stats graphic below.

Everything looks pretty similar to what he did in 2025. Yes, the chase is high (31st percentile O-Swing%), and he could do a better job of pulling the ball (20th percentile Pull Air%). However, the main difference with this graphic is that he has a .272 wOBA this season compared to a .360 wOBA a season ago. Furthermore, his xwOBA is .416, which is 144 points higher than his actual wOBA.

High Leverage Baseball mentioned this on Twitter as one of the biggest wOBA-xwOBA discrepancies in baseball right now.

So what has been the difference for Witt this year when all the other metrics have been solid and similar to what he did during his All-Star season a year ago? Well, the squared-up rate could explain why Witt hasn't quite met his expected metrics this season.

This season, Witt's 17.6% squared up rate ranks in the 17th percentile. Last year, he had a 27% squared-up rate, which ranked in the 64th percentile. That 9.4% difference is significant and explains why he is hitting the ball hard, but it's not launching in a way that produces base hits, especially extra-base hits.

An interesting trend for Witt that could be contributing to that lackluster squared-up rate is that his average bat speed and bat tilt are both down from a year ago. Last year, his average bat speed was 74.3 MPH, which ranked in the 82nd percentile. Furthermore, his tilt was 29 degrees. For those unfamiliar with what "tilt" is, it can be defined as follows:

Quote

Swing path is a metric that tells you the shape of a hitter's swing on the way toward contact. The tilt of the swing is defined as the vertical angle formed by the bat path compared to the ground.

Different hitters have different types of swing paths. Some hitters have a "steep" or "uppercut" swing, while others have a "flat" swing.

The lower the angle of the swing path, the flatter the swing, and the higher the angle, the steeper the swing path. A swing tilt of 0° would represent a perfectly flat swing (i.e. parallel to the ground), while a swing tilt of 90° would represent a true "golf" swing.

 

This year, his average bat speed is 72.6 MPH, which ranks in the 59th percentile. Furthermore, his tilt is 27 degrees, two down from a season ago. When it comes to his tilt-rolling trend so far this season, it's clearly below the MLB average, as shown in the chart below from Savant.

Now, let's take a look at what that swing path-tilt rolling trend looked like in 2025. 

Witt's never had a high tilt, which, as Savant says, is not necessarily a bad thing. However, he's seen some pretty big valleys this year, though he experienced tough dips in tilt at various points last season. 

The difference between this year's tilt and last year's may be tied to his bat speed. With elite bat speed last year, he was able to produce power on his swing, even if it was a bit flatter. Here's a look at how his bat speed looked in 2025.

Witt's bat speed hovered around the 75 MPH range for most of the season. That is about three MPH above the league average and a sign of some elite natural swing skills. 

Now, let's take a look at his bat speed this season, albeit in a much smaller sample.

The bat speed isn't bad, as it's mostly been above-average this year. However, he's touched 75 MPH far less than a year ago, and he's hovered around or below the MLB average bat speed. It's only a 74 swing sample, which is why I don't think it's something to panic about. However, if there's not an uptick in bat speed, it will be interesting to see how his power will respond with the current swing path-tilt. 

Because right now, the power and squared-up results aren't there for Bobby.

Seeing Fewer Strikes and Drawing More Walks (But Taking Less Advantage of Meatballs)

Another reason Bobby isn't "bashing" the ball as much as usual is that he's just not getting enough hittable strikes in the zone. Instead of chasing those bad balls and getting weak contact, he's laying off them and drawing more walks.

Witt is currently drawing a 14.6% walk rate, which is 7.5% higher than a year ago. On one hand, it's been great to see Witt get on base more with the walk than a year ago. His OBP of .365 is 14 percentage points higher than last year's due to a massive increase in his walk rate. 

Here's a look at his rolling BB% chart from Savant this season. He saw a massive spike initially, but the pressing has seemed to cut his walks down recently.

That said, the former second overall pick is known for making contact with his bat. And it's not like he's chasing less either. His 33% chase rate is actually 2.3% higher than it was a year ago. Thus, it's been more about pitchers avoiding Witt so far this year and throwing off his approach than Witt developing a serious "gain" in plate discipline.

This season, Witt's zone rate is 42.6%, 7.4% down from a season ago. Furthermore, his meatball% is 7.4%, down 0.8%. Because of that inconsistency in strikes seen, Witt has been less aggressive on those meatball pitches. His meatball swing percentage of 64.3% is 20.6 percentage points lower than a year ago. 

The good thing with the latter metric is that it won't stay that way forever. His career meatball swing% is 81.4%. Hence, there will be a positive change in not just the number of hittable pitches that he will see, but in his swings on these pitches as well. 

When those two aspects happen (meatball% and meatball swing%), the production from Witt will increase, especially in terms of slugging, extra-base hits, and home runs. 

Here's a look at his run value zone chart from 2025, and notice how many positive runs above average he produced in those "meatball" (middle-middle) areas.

In the middle-middle, he produced a run value of 6.9 runs above average. In the middle and inside, it was 4.0 runs above average. When pitchers made mistakes, Witt made them pay dearly.

Now, let's take a look at that batter run value zone chart this year, with him taking less advantage of those meatball pitches. 

This year, he's been 0.8 runs below average on pitches middle-middle and 0.1 runs below average on pitches middle-in. That's a huge swing in two areas where he feasted a year ago.

Either Witt is not seeing pitches well at this time of the year, or he is pressing and thinking too much in the box.

Regardless, when he makes that adjustment, the production will swing positive, especially since his hitting skills and tools remain so elite.

Taking Steps in the Right Direction

Witt had a good game in the series finale at the plate, even though the Royals lost by eight runs. He had two hits, including his first double of the season. It came off Guardians starter Joey Cantillo, who struck out nine Royals batters and only allowed three hits and two runs in 5.2 innings of work.

He didn't get that big home run or help the Royals get a win (though he did all he could), but it was a step in the right direction for a franchise player who has been plagued by some rough batted-ball luck to begin the season.

The Royals will get a favorable matchup this weekend with a four-game series against the White Sox. After sweeping the Blue Jays last weekend, the White Sox were swept at home against the Orioles. Thus, Chicago will be coming back reeling even more than the Royals, who lost 2 of 3 in Cleveland.

It's easy to be negative about Witt and his outlook after a tough start to the year. It becomes even easier when the Royals are below .500 and haven't generated any consistent run production through 12 games.

That said, Witt isn't the problem in this Kansas City lineup.

He's showing all the skills and batted-ball ability of his 2025 and even 2024 self. Once the Royals star makes that slight adjustment in either pitch recognition or mechanics, he will be back to his old, productive hitting self, perhaps as soon as today in game one of the four-game set against White Sox. 

When that happens, the Royals' record will also follow.