Kevin O'Brien

Getting a productive outfield bat seems to be priority number one for JJ Picollo and the Kansas City Royals front office. After all, they ranked last in outfield fWAR, according to Fangraphs, and he's been open to the media about possibly trading from their starting pitching depth to get the outfielder they need to improve the lineup in 2026. While the Royals are open to a trade to acquire an outfielder, the free agent market has a lot of outfield possibilities. One candidate who could improve the Royals' outfield and lineup is Cody Bellinger, who's ranked No. 8 in DiamondCentric's Top-50 Free Agents list. Here's what Matt Trueblood of DiamondCentric said about Bellinger in his write-up. After posting a 108 wRC+ and 2.1 fWAR in 569 plate appearances in 2024, his final season with the Cubs, Bellinger had a resurgence with the Yankees last season. He posted a 125 wRC+ and 4.9 fWAR in 656 plate appearances and also hit 29 home runs and collected 98 RBI, 11 and 20 more than his totals in 2024 in those categories, respectively. Hence, it is not surprising that Bellinger is projected to earn a multi-year deal in the $25+ million AAV range this offseason and is already attracting interest from many teams, including the Phillies and even the Angels. If the Royals were to pursue Bellinger, it would require a significant long-term commitment from owner John Sherman. While Kansas City is a small-market team, it has not been averse to big deals in the past. That is evidenced by their mega extension to Bobby Witt Jr. before the 2024 season and their multi-year deals with Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo in the past calendar year. However, while Bellinger at the surface level could provide a boost to the Royals' lineup in the short and long term, the underlying metrics hint at a hitter who could struggle in his transition to Kauffman Stadium, especially as an outfielder who will be 31 next July. Why Bellinger is Enticing for the Royals Bellinger checks a lot of boxes for the Royals at first glance, especially when looking at his surface-level and plate discipline metrics. Last season with the Yankees, the 30-year-old outfielder slashed .272/.334/.480 with an .813 OPS. In addition to hitting 29 home runs, scoring 89 runs, and collecting 98 RBI, he also showed decent speed on the basepaths with 13 stolen bases. He also had 20 stolen bases in 2023 and 14 in 2022, which displays that Bellinger can be a 20-20 HR-SB threat for any team that acquires him. While the results were strong last season, his plate discipline may have been even more impressive. With the Yankees, he posted a 13.7% K rate, the lowest of his career. Furthermore, he also generated an 8.7% walk rate, his highest mark in that category since 2021, when he was still a member of the Dodgers. Thus, he produced a 0.63 BB/K ratio, his best mark in that category since 2020 (when it was 0.71) and the third-best ratio of his career (he had a 0.88 ratio in 2019). Over the last three years, he has seen significant improvement in his BB/K ratio, going from 0.25 in 2022 to 0.46 in 2023 and 0.51 in 2024. Lastly, he ranked in the upper percentiles in whiff percentage and pulled the ball effectively with the Yankees. His overall pull percentage ranked in the 80th percentile, and Pull Air percentage ranked in the 90th percentile. Those two factors led to his home run success in the Bronx. Those are both clear in his Statcast summary profile via TJ Stats. The Royals' outfielders ranked 17th in BB/K ratio last season with a 0.35 mark, according to Fangraphs. That said, only one Royals outfielder posted a better ratio than Bellinger: Mike Yastrzemski, who sported a 1.14 BB/K ratio. The next closest Royals to Bellinger were Cavan Biggio and Nick Loftin, who both posted 0.52 ratios. Therefore, Bellinger could provide a disciplined, high-contact approach sorely needed in the middle of the Kansas City lineup next season. The Issue with Bellinger The main problem with Bellinger is two-fold: his pop is questionable, and his bat speed isn't encouraging. In terms of the former, it doesn't seem likely that Bellinger's profile would fare well in Kauffman Stadium's spacious dimensions. According to Statcast's xHR by Park measurement, only 22 of his 29 home runs would've been gone at the K last season. Over his career, only 158 of Bellinger's 235 home runs would be out at Kaffuman. The only park with lower xHR was Oracle Park in San Francisco (138). Visually, Royals fans can see that many of Bellinger's home runs would've fallen short. Below is a spray chart of his 2025 hits, applied to Kauffman's dimensions. Next, below is a clip of a home run Bellinger hit against the Cubs at Yankee Stadium. It would've only cleared out of four other stadiums in baseball. Unsurprisingly, Kauffman Stadium was not one of them. The batted-ball percentiles and bat speed don't paint a pretty picture for Bellinger's outlook in Kansas City either. Even though he nearly hit 30 home runs, he seemed to outperform his exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit metrics. His average exit velocity ranked in the 28th percentile, his barrel rate ranked in the 35th percentile, and his hard-hit rate ranked in the 28th percentile. His hard-hit percentage rolling chart also showcased him regressing heavily in the second half after a bit of a spike in the beginning of June. Bellinger was able to launch the ball well last season, as illustrated by his 38.6% LA Sweet-Spot percentage, which ranked in the 77th percentile. He is also able to square up the ball well, as his squared-up rate ranked in the 72nd percentile last year, according to Statcast. While those metrics are promising, his bat speed is the inverse. Last year, his bat speed averaged 70.1 MPH, which ranked in the 20th percentile according to Statcast. For context, that bat speed would be the seventh-worst mark of Royals hitters with 100 or more swings last season, as illustrated in the table below. In addition to the slow average swing velocity, his 6.5% hard-swing rate is the fifth-worst mark as well. He also would've sported the second-longest swing of this group at 7.8 feet. Long swings tend to lead to a lot of whiffs (notice Salvador Perez has the longest swing of this sample, and he had a 19.5% K rate last season). Thus, any regression in Bellinger's plate discipline could lead to a lot more swings and misses, and thus, strikeouts. That isn't exactly the profile the Royals would want from a hitter expected to be a long-term mainstay at the three-to-five spots in the batting order. Bellinger Isn't Worth the Cost There's no question that any available hitter the Royals are targeting this offseason will have warts in their profile. That said, as one of my friends and Inside the Crown writer David Lesky noted in a chat, "it's one thing to get a guy with warts, it's another thing to get that kind of guy who's going to take up 15-20% of your team's payroll for several years." Matthew of DiamondCentric estimated Bellinger would command an AAV of about $22 million in his next deal. Spotrac is putting his market value at $30,449,698. That is essentially Witt money, and even then, Witt doesn't hit the $30 million AAV mark in his contract until 2028, according to Roster Resource. Bellinger is a good player, but he's not a Witt-esque one. He's a good complementary piece, but not one that can carry a team long-term, especially on a massive contract. If he were, the Dodgers, Cubs, and Yankees wouldn't have let him go. A bad contract on an aging "fringe" star with questionable skills can be debilitating to a franchise. Just ask the Colorado Rockies, who learned the hard way with Kris Bryant, or the Angels with Anthony Rendon. Let's hope the Royals don't make that same mistake with Bellinger. View full article

Image courtesy of © Peter Aiken-Imagn Images Last weekend, rumors spread from the Boston Globe that the Royals may be interested in trading away Cole Ragans to the Red Sox for the right package. Royals GM JJ Picollo didn't mention Ragans specifically in his interview with Alex Speier of the Globe. Still, he did hint that they would be open to trading an established pitcher away for a lineup-changing outfielder. With big salary amounts owed to Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo, and injury concerns with Kris Bubic, Ragans may be the Royals' best starting pitching trade asset. The former Rangers first-round pick finished fourth in the AL Cy Young race in 2024 after posting a 3.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 32 starts and 186.1 IP. Last year was a bit of a down year, as he struggled with injuries, posting a 4.67 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 61.2 IP. However, his xERA was 2.67, which ranked in the Top 4% of the league. Furthermore, he posted a 38.1% K rate and a 30.4% K-BB%, and showcased stellar stuff and strike metrics in his TJ Stats summary. Without a doubt, in terms of stuff, skills, and strikeout ability, Ragans is the most valuable starting pitcher in the Royals' rotation. Additionally, he's cost-controlled, having agreed to a three-year extension last offseason worth $13.25 million total. The deal includes next year and 2027, giving him one year of arbitration eligibility before he hits free agency in 2029, according to Spotrac. Any team that acquires Ragans would not just gain a Cy Young-caliber pitcher but also one with financial predictability, unlike Bubic, who will be a free agent after next season. Thus, the Royals should be expecting a significant trade package in return for Ragans. While the Royals need an outfielder, a one-for-one swap for most outfielders would be a massive overpay by Kansas City. For a small-market franchise with regular playoff aspirations, such a deal could be debilitating to the progress Picollo has made since taking over for Dayton Moore after the 2023 season. What should the Royals be looking for in a deal? Well, let's look at Ragans' value, the Royals' needs, and a couple of theoretical moves that could make sense for Kansas City. What's Ragans' Value on the Trade Market? When looking at Ragans' value, I think two things could be utilized for us as baseball fans: statistics and Baseball Trade Value's "surplus" measurement. In terms of statistics, there's no question that Ragans has become the "ace" of the Royals' rotation, not easy to do given a rotation that includes veterans such as Wacha and Lugo. Since coming over from Texas in 2023 in the Aroldis Chapman trade, Ragans has made 57 starts and pitched 319.2 innings with the Royals. In that sample, he has a 3.32 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, a 2.79 FIP, an 11.5 K/9, and a 3.60 K/BB ratio. When looking at starting pitchers since July 17th, 2023, Ragans ranks 11th in fWAR (9.2), despite sporting the lowest IP total (314.2 IP) of any starter in the Top-15. Thus, Ragans has certainly put up the metrics to become one of the most valued starting pitching assets on the trade market, beyond Detroit's Tarik Skubal, who's a back-to-back AL Cy Young winner. When it comes to his value on Baseball Trade Values, it's essential to know what is factored into that value, not just for Ragans, but for all Major League players. According to BTV, it is necessary first to calculate the "field value," which includes the following factors: WAR Projections Inflation Years of Control Injury Risk Roster Risk The next factor is salary, which is needed to calculate "surplus" value, defined by BTV as follows: Thus, based on those factors, where does Ragans rank in comparison to other Royals players? According to BTV, Ragans sports the second-highest surplus value with a 79.4 mark. The only one higher is Bobby Witt Jr. with a 200.7 mark. Therefore, the 27-year-old lefty is one of the Royals' most prized assets, in addition to their most prized pitcher on the 40-man roster. What Are the Royals' Needs? The Royals need hitting and help in the outfield, plain and simple. Even in the interview with the Globe, Picollo pointed out that they need to upgrade the corner outfield in 2026, and the Royals would be willing to trade away pitching to accomplish that goal this offseason. However, another area of need for the Royals is to deepen the farm system, especially with the recent graduation of Jac Caglianone and the soon-to-be graduate Carter Jensen. The Royals' system has come a long way under Picollo and new scouting director Brian Bridges. However, for the Royals to be a consistent small-market playoff contender, like Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and Milwaukee, they need to ensure that their farm system isn't left bare at any point. That was a significant reason Moore struggled to keep his job, despite leading the Royals to two pennants and a World Series title during his tenure. The Royals should explore deals not just to acquire an MLB-ready outfielder, but some prospect talent as well, in any possible trade, especially considering the surplus value Ragans holds. Proposed Trade #1: Cole Ragans to Boston for OF Jarren Duran, SP Kyson Witherspoon, and OF Jhostynxon Garcia Duran has been a target for the Royals for a while, as rumors swirled that Kansas City tried to acquire him at the deadline before settling on Mike Yastrzemski (which didn't turn out too badly). Duran proved to be quite valuable for the Red Sox last season, posting a 3.9 fWAR with a 111 wRC+, 16 home runs, and 24 stolen bases in 696 plate appearances. Over the past three years, Duran has accumulated 13.2 fWAR for the Red Sox, which leads all Red Sox players in that time frame, according to Fangraphs. That said, according to BTV, Duran's surplus value is 49.5, significantly lower than Ragans'. A one-for-one trade would not be worth it for Kansas City, based on BTV's model. Therefore, the Red Sox would need to throw in some prospect capital to make the trade a fair one for the Royals. Two prospects that could make sense are Witherspoon and Garcia, a starting pitcher and outfielder, respectively, in the Red Sox farm system. Witherspoon was the Red Sox's top draft pick in the 2025 MLB Draft out of Oklahoma. In his final season with the Sooners, he posted a 2.65 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 31.8% K rate, and 25.9% K-BB% in 16 starts and 95 IP. Thus, it's no surprise that the Red Sox were willing to give him a $5 million signing bonus at pick No. 15 (which was slightly below slot). Witherspoon did not pitch professionally after being drafted, but he could be an excellent project for the Royals' pitching development team and move quickly through the Royals' farm system in 2026. His BTV surplus value is 17.7. Garcia, known as "The Password" by Red Sox fans due to his hard-to-pronounce first name, is also an intriguing prospect that could give the Royals some depth on the 40-man, which lacks MLB-ready outfielders. The 22-year-old outfielder was mediocre in his initial MLB exposure (82 wRC+ and 55.6% K rate in nine PA), but a glut of outfielders in Boston blocked him. In 489 plate appearances in Triple-A Worcester, he slashed .267/.340/.470 with a 116 wRC+, 21 HR, 75 RBI, and seven stolen bases. When looking at his TJ Stats summary from Triple-A, Garcia showcased excellent barrel rates and solid exit velocity on batted balls. However, like many Royals hitters in their system, he struggled with plate discipline, whiffs, and strikeouts. Adding Duran, Witherspoon, and Garcia together yields a total surplus value of 75, making it a fair trade by BTV's standards, as shown below. Now, I'm not sure if the Red Sox would give up a recently drafted starting pitcher with considerable upside and a flawed but still talented outfielder who is just 23, along with Duran. That said, if the Royals are willing to trade their second-most valuable asset in their organization, they need to make sure they get a considerably fair return in the process. If they can't, they should continue to hold onto Ragans and look for other options. Proposed Trade #2: Ragans to San Diego for OF Fernando Tatis Jr. Remember how I talked about how the Royals should look to kill two birds with one stone by getting an established outfielder and prospects in return for Ragans? Well, this trade blows that idea out of the water. That said, if the Royals can only get a one-for-one deal with Ragans, they might as well shoot high and acquire Tatis in an agreement that BTV's model accepted. Surprisingly, Tatis may be more available than some baseball fans would like to think. His BTV surplus value is 83.3, slightly higher than Ragans'. However, he also commands a super long-term deal, one of many that San Diego has on their payroll (Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts being the others). He also only posted an .807 OPS, down from his .833 mark in 2024. Thus, the Padres may view a possible Ragans-Tatis trade as an avenue to improve their starting pitching (they lack depth after No. 1 starter Nick Pivetta, especially after Dylan Cease signed with the Blue Jays this offseason) while shedding some short-term payroll. Still, he posted a 6.1 fWAR in 2025, and his Statcast percentiles showed that Tatis is one of the most naturally talented hitters in the league. Now, the Royals would like to trade Ragans for Tatis in an instant. However, it may be a tougher deal to stomach for Padres GM AJ Preller, especially since Tatis is the face of the Padres franchise. While Ragans would immediately improve the San Diego rotation, fans would likely revolt in response to losing a player who has been so key to the Padres' turnaround after years of mediocrity and inconsistency. Nonetheless, it's an avenue to explore, as a 1-for-1 trade of Ragans for Tatis would at least check a lot of boxes for both teams in terms of on-field production and needs. View full article

On Tuesday afternoon, MLB announced the order of the two Competitive Balance rounds of the 2026 MLB Draft, as highlighted by Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline on Bluesky. For those unaware, the Competitive Balance rounds in the MLB Draft can be described as follows, according to MLB.com's Joe Trezza: The Royals rank 28th in MLB franchise value, ahead of only the Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins, according to Forbes. Thus, Kansas City not only tends to receive draft picks in the Competitive Balance round, but it also tends to receive an excellent draft position in those rounds. Here's a layout of the two rounds, according to Trezza. The Royals draft behind only the Guardians, who rank 25th in Forbes' franchise valuations. Competitive Balance round picks are the only draft picks that are allowed to be traded by MLB teams. In 2022, the Royals utilized their CB pick in a deal with Atlanta that netted them outfielder Drew Waters, pitcher Andrew Hoffmann, and infielder CJ Alexander. In 2024, they acquired reliever Hunter Harvey from the Nationals in a trade package that included their CB pick and third-base prospect Cayden Wallace. While the Competitive Balance rounds are set, the whole draft order will not be set until December 9th, when the MLB Draft Lottery takes place, during the Winter Meetings. The Royals have 0.84% odds to win the top pick in the 2026 MLB Draft, according to Trezza. The 2026 MLB Draft is set to take place July 12th-13th in Philadelphia, home of the All-Star game next season. View full rumor

Garcia's 16 DRS was 11 runs better than Yasstrzemski, the Royals' second-best defensive outfielder in that category a season ago. The former Ranger lagged behind Rave in Outs Above Average (OAA) and Fielding Run Value (FRV), as Rave led the Royals with three in each category. That said, he still finished ahead of all other Royals in OAA and FRV beyond Rave. Thus, the Royals would not just be getting a player with some power upside, but also one who would be a clear defensive upgrade over other options the Royals trotted out in the corner outfield spots a season ago. What's the Challenge With Signing Garcia? The issue with acquiring Garcia is that he won't come to Kansas City easily or cheaply. After the move, many other team sites theorized on social media about how Garcia would fit their rosters for the upcoming season. Thus, like Yastrzemski, the Royals may need to overpay to get a player of Garcia's caliber for 2026. However, at 32 years old, is Garcia worth such a firm financial commitment, even if he wouldn't cost the Royals any prospect capital? That is a tricky question to answer for now. It does seem like the Royals value their prospects more than before, especially as they're rebuilding the Minor League talent pool under scouting director Brian Bridges, who took over after the 2023 MLB Draft. And yet, it seems like Picollo isn't averse to trading from an area of strength, as illustrated by the recent Cole Ragans rumors that emerged over the weekend. Furthermore, the Royals do not want to sign a free agent, only to see them fall flat in their move to Kansas City. That was the case with Hunter Renfroe, who was seen as an "affordable" upgrade that didn't cost them any prospect capital, but ended up posting a -0.8 fWAR in 155 games with the Royals. The Royals can't "swing-and-miss" with their outfield upgrade like Renfroe or even Jonathan India last season, who failed to gain traction as a utility player in Kansas City. For the Royals to get back to the playoffs, they need to find someone who will give the production they desperately need in the outfield while not being a complete drain defensively, especially with Caglianone still working on things in the outfield (as Cags would most likely be the third outfielder). Is Garcia the answer? He checks a lot of boxes. That said, he'll be 33 next year, doesn't have much team control, and could cost a lot to acquire. Are those risks Picollo is willing to take? I guess Royals fans will have to wait and see. View full article

On Saturday, Boston Globe reporter Alex Speier reported that the Royals may be open to trading Cole Ragans for a package involving a Major League outfielder, with Jarren Duran being floated as the centerpiece of such a trade. Here's a snippet from Speier's piece that discusses trade interest between the Red Sox and Royals and what a possible Ragans trade could look like, courtesy of Red Sox Stats on Twitter. We have talked about Duran as a trade possibility for the Royals before on Royals Keep. He would certainly boost a Kansas City outfield that rated as the worst in baseball in both fWAR (-1.4) and wRC+ (70). Duran had 3.9 fWAR and 111 wRC+ in 696 plate appearances, which led all Red Sox outfielders. However, this is the first time the mention of Ragans has been floated in trade rumors this offseason (Kris Bubic and Noah Cameron have been mentioned as trade candidates). Ragans was hurt last season, making only 13 starts and pitching 61.2 innings for Kansas City. He also posted a 4.67 ERA, his worst mark since joining the Royals in 2023 at the Trade Deadline. However, the 27-year-old lefty still had a 38.1% K rate and a 30.4% K-BB%, the latter the third-best rate among pitchers with 60 or more innings. As a result, Ragans has been identified as a bounce-back candidate for 2026 by many experts, especially if he can return to his 2024 form, which saw him post a 3.14 ERA and 4.9 fWAR in 186.1 IP. The Royals signed Ragans to a three-year, $13.25 million extension last offseason. While the deal gives him and the Royals some salary stability from 2025 to 2027, he will still have one more year of arbitration in 2028 before becoming a free agent in 2029. If Ragans rebounds to his 2024 self, he could be due for a big payday when he becomes a free agent, which may be difficult for the Royals after committing money to Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo over the past calendar year. The Red Sox recently acquired Sonny Gray from the Cardinals, which lessens the need for an immediate trade to improve the rotation. However, Boston still needs help at the bottom of the rotation, especially if it wants to compete in a division with the Yankees and Blue Jays. Roster Resource projects Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval to be in the rotation for 2026, and neither pitched for the Red Sox last year due to injuries. Photo Credit: © Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images View full rumor

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Yeah I agree on Pham. He wasn't all that impressive in Kansas City, and defensively, he's a mixed bag. Refsnyder is just a way better option if you want to do the platoon thing with Cags. I wouldn't be surprised if they would explore Garcia and/or Cags in another position like LF, especially if they're willing to commit the money to Garcia. It's not like there's a ton of options right now in LF.

Image courtesy of © Denny Medley-Imagn Images On Tuesday afternoon, the MLB Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool recipients were released. For those unfamiliar with the Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool, it can be defined as follows: A more thorough breakdown of the Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool, who is eligible, and how it is awarded can be found here. While it is not as celebrated as the MLB awards or as hyped as free agency or trade season in the offseason, the pool highlights pre-arbitration players coming off excellent campaigns. This season, four Royals players received bonuses from the pool, including two pitchers and two position players. Let's examine how much those players made and what they did in 2025 to earn those respective bonus amounts. Maikel Garcia, 3B: $773,819 Garcia received the 13th-highest amount this season, just ahead of players like Boston's Roman Anthony ($725,317) and Baltimore's Gunnar Henderson ($641,218). After a down season in 2024 in which he posted a 71 wRC+ and 1.2 fWAR in 626 plate appearances, he posted a 121 wRC+ and 5.8 fWAR in 666 plate appearances this season. The 25-year-old third baseman didn't just post great stats, but earned some honors and hardware this season as well. He made his first All-Star team, was a Silver Slugger finalist, and garnered his first Gold Glove after posting stellar metrics at the hot corner this year. Garcia didn't earn any All-MLB honors, but his high fWAR and various honors contributed to his high pre-arbitration bonus amount. The Venezuelan will enter his first year of arbitration eligibility this offseason, and he could be a candidate for a long-term extension. MLB Trade Rumors projects Garcia to command around $4.8 million in arbitration this offseason. Noah Cameron, LHP: $638,351 The rookie lefty had the second-highest bonus amount for a Royals player and had the 17th-highest overall. That isn't surprising, especially considering the season Cameron had on the mound for a rotation that dealt with a lot of pitching injuries this season. In 24 starts and 138.1 IP, Cameron sported a 9-7 record and posted a 2.99 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 1.8 fWAR. His fWAR mark actually lagged behind Michael Wacha (3.6), Kris Bubic (3.3), and even Cole Ragans (2.1). That said, his durability and strong showing helped him earn Royals Pitcher of the Year honors from the organization and finish fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting, behind Nick Kurtz (winner), Jacob Wilson, and Anthony. The fWAR may not have been as impressive as Garcia's. Still, his strong showing in the AL Rookie of the Year voting, along with excellent surface-level numbers for a rookie starting pitcher, likely contributed to his high bonus. Cameron has an opportunity to continue to collect from the pool for the next few years if he continues to develop as a pitcher, as he is not arbitration-eligible until 2029. Stephen Kolek, RHP: $251,660 A Trade Deadline acquisition from San Diego, Kolek thrived in his role with the Royals down the stretch. In five starts and 33 IP with Kansas City, he posted a 1.91 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and 0.9 fWAR. This was despite initially pitching in Triple-A Omaha when he was originally acquired from the Padres. His finish was so impressive that he earned September Pitcher of the Month honors from the Royals. While those numbers with the Royals were impressive, Kolek had a solid overall season, pitching with the Padres before switching organizations. Overall, Kolek made 19 appearances, nine starts, pitched 112.2 innings, and posted an ERA of 3.51, a WHIP of 1.14, and fWAR of 0.9. That's not bad for a pitcher who had only pitched 46.2 innings in 2024 with San Diego as a rookie (he posted a 5.21 ERA and 1.52 WHIP last season). Kolek's bonus amount put him just behind the White Sox's Shane Smith ($255,276) but ahead of other pitchers such as the Dodgers' Emmet Sheehan ($248,866) and Milwaukee's Aaron Ashby ($228,384). The 28-year-old Texas A&M product is still pre-arbitration eligible this offseason and next and will be arbitration-eligible in 2028, according to Spotrac. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B: $245,479 Pasquantino finally stayed healthy in 2025 and had the best season of his short career. The 27-year-old first baseman played 160 games and had 682 plate appearances in 2025. Over that sample, he slashed .264/.323/.475 and led the Royals in home runs with 32 and RBI with 113. He also posted a 116 wRC+ and 1.5 fWAR. On the hitting end, it was an unforgettable season for the Pasquatch. He overcame a slow start to the season, as he posted a 49 wRC+ in 124 plate appearances in March/April, according to Fangraphs splits. After that brutal first month of play, he didn't have a wRC+ below triple digits, and he was particularly productive after the All-Star Break, posting a 125 wRC+ in the second half. Pasquantino didn't earn any All-Star or All-MLB honors last season (and it wasn't particularly close). Furthermore, his defense left a bit to be desired. He was seven outs below average and four runs below average defensively, according to Statcast's defensive metrics. His OAA ranked in the bottom sixth percentile, and it was also a nine-out difference from his mark in 2024. Still, aside from defense, the Royals should feel good about what Pasquantino did last year as an on-field and locker-room leader for the club. He also did enough to get some money from the pre-arbitration bonus pool, as his amount was larger than Detroit's Colt Keith ($224,454), Toronto's Nathan Lukes ($222,545), and Pittsburgh's Oneil Cruz ($221,795). Like Garcia, Pasquantino enters his first year of arbitration eligibility and could be an extension candidate as well this offseason. MLB Trade Rumors estimates him to command $5.4 million in arbitration this offseason. View full article

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Solid piece, Philip. I would rank my wish list of this group as follows: 1. Refsnyder: Seems to be most comfortable and familiar with platooning and shouldn't be too expensive. 2. Hays: Think the Royals had interest before, and he's a guy who could move around the corners if he gets hot. Plus, as you said, he would probably agree to a one-year deal. 3. Morel: Huge strikeout issues, but interesting power. Not an everyday guy, but think he and Jac can make up a dynamic RF. 4. Yaz: Obviously not a platoon, but I think Yaz did enough to prove he could be an everyday player if re-signed. However, believe he will command some attention this offseason and be out of our price range. No on Pham (was fine, but underwhelming in KC and Royals not bringing him back was interesting), Garcia (will be too expensive likely), Slater (more defense than offense, which isn't bad, but doesn't solve our hitting problems), and Adell (he likely will command a decent return after his breakout year).

On Monday, the Kansas City Royals announced that they hired Mike McFerran as assistant pitching coach. McFerran replaces Zach Bove, who left earlier this month for the head pitching coach role with the Chicago White Sox. McFerran is only 32 years old but has a diverse coaching history, with much of his time spent at his alma mater, Skidmore College in Saratoga Springs, New York, Wake Forest University, and the Sacramento Athletics. With Wake Forest, he served as an associate head coach and pitching lab coordinator, helping develop first-round draft picks such as Ryan Cusick and Rhett Lowder. After a successful tenure with the Demon Deacons, he moved on to the Athletics organization, where he primarily worked with Minor League pitchers for the past two seasons. The Royals' new assistant pitching coach had a pretty interesting interview on "And That's The Game" from Pro Batter Sports last year, when he was a member of the Athletics organization. In the podcast, he discussed his unique coaching background and his overall coaching philosophy. When it came to replacing Bove, the Royals were looking for someone who shared Bove's ability to work closely with pitchers, especially in game strategy and pitch design, according to MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers. With his extensive background in pitch mechanics and incorporating science, data, and technology to develop athletes, especially pitchers, it seems like Kansas City found that fit with McFerran. Here's a snippet from Rogers' piece that provides background on McFerran's coaching history, especially during his tenure at Wake Forest. With the McFerran hiring, the Royals' coaching staff should be complete for the upcoming season. In addition to Bove, the Royals needed to replace assistant hitting coaches Keoni DeRenne and Joe Dillon. They found those replacements in Connor Dawson of the Brewers and Marcus Thames of the White Sox. Photo Credit: © William Purnell-Imagn Images View full rumor

Image courtesy of © Denny Medley-Imagn Images We've finally arrived at part four in our series, which explores our top-five prospects in the Royals farm system. As stated before, the Kansas City Royals may not receive much respect from prospect experts for their system. For example, Bleacher Report, in their updated system rankings in September, ranked the Royals as the 23rd-best system in baseball. However, under scouting director Brian Bridges, the Royals have done a much better job in terms of amateur scouting and drafting since he joined the organization in 2024. That has resulted in much better Royals prospects, especially at the top of the system. In part four of Royal Keep's Top-20 Prospects rankings, we look at a pitcher just recently added to the 40-man roster, two teenage pitchers who did well in Low-A ball in 2025, a former first-round pick who had a solid fall in Arizona, and a local KC-area catcher who made his debut in September and could be a centerpiece for this franchise for years to come. 5th: Ben Kurdna, RHP (Highest Level: Triple-A) The Royals added Kudrna to the 40-man roster last week (along with fellow right-hander Steven Zobac) to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft in December. A former Blue Valley Southwest High School product and 2021 second-round pick, the right-hander has shown growth the past couple of seasons in ways that Frank Mozzicato, who was drafted ahead of Kudrna in 2021, hasn't. Kudrna has done a much better job of striking out batters each season in the Minor Leagues. After only generating a 19.2% K rate in 2023 in High-A Quad Cities, he has shown improvement over the past two seasons. In 2024, in 115.1 IP between High-A and Double-A, he produced a 24.2% K rate. In 2025, in 105.1 IP, he posted a 22.9% K rate between Double-A and Triple-A, but sported a 24% K rate in 94 IP in Northwest Arkansas. In addition to strikeouts, the 22-year-old has also demonstrated solid CSW (called-strike plus whiff) rates as well as strong groundball rates over the past two years. In 2024, he posted a 30% CSW and a 45.6% GB% across High-A and Double-A. In 2025 with the Naturals, he induced a 45.4% GB% and 27.5% CSW, both solid marks for a starting pitcher. Unfortunately, Kudrna hit a bit of a wall in his first exposure to Triple-A at the end of last season. In four games (three starts) and 11.1 IP, he posted a 14.29 ERA, 2.74 WHIP, and 9.94 FIP. He struggled immensely with his command while pitching for the Storm Chasers. His K rate didn't just drop by 8.1%; his walk rate also jumped to 27% (resulting in a K-BB% of -11.1%). Furthermore, the stuff didn't profile well on a TJ Stuff+ end as well. He only sported a TJ Stuff+ mark of 94, and only one of his six offerings had a TJ Stuff+ mark in the triple digits. His other metrics, such as zone rate (35.5%) and chase rate (20.6%), didn't profile well either. That said, he did generate a decent 29.5% whiff rate, and his GB% of 45.7% was actually 0.2% higher than his GB% in Northwest Arkansas. Hence, there were some positive signs for Kudrna in his brief exposure to Triple-A, even though the overall metrics weren't great. With a fresh start and a complete Spring Training in big league camp, Kudrna could make a push to join the rotation midseason, especially if he can continue to generate whiffs and strong groundball rates in 2026. 4th: Kendry Chourio, RHP (Highest Level: Low-A) Arguably the biggest riser in the Royals' farm system last year, Chourio advanced to three different levels of play in 2025 as a 17-year-old: DSL, Complex, and Low-A. At each level, the Venezuelan teenager dominated on the mound. In five appearances and 17.2 IP in the DSL, he posted a 2.04 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 32.8% K rate, and 31.3% K-BB%. In the Arizona Complex League, his dominance continued. In three starts and 11 IP, he posted a 2.45 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 35.4% K and K-BB%. As a result of those solid, complex performances, he earned a promotion to Low-A Columbia, despite being younger than most high school seniors. Low-A ball was a bit more of a reality check for Chourio. In six starts and 22.2 IP, he posted a 5.16 ERA. However, his WHIP remained solid at 1.06, and his 25% K rate and 20.8% K-BB% were also solid marks, especially for a pitcher of his age. His 3.66 FIP and 3.26 xFIP demonstrated that he was better in Columbia than his high ERA suggested. Chourio showcases a plus four-seamer that can touch 97 MPH and an equally plus changeup that plays well off his fastball. His breaking offering needs work, but he still has plenty of time to develop it as he gets more Minor League innings. Some scouts and insiders have remarked that Chourio shares many comps with Yordano Ventura, the most decorated and successful international pitching prospect developed by the Royals. Granted, that's high praise, and a bit unfair to Chourio, who just turned 18 in October. However, the tools, pitch command, and the physical projection (he's six-foot, 160 pounds) are impressive so far with the young Venezuelan. If he continues to develop, he could be the Royals' top pitching prospect by midseason, and perhaps their top prospect by the conclusion of 2026, if everything falls into place. 3rd: David Shields, LHP (Highest Level: Low-A) In addition to Chourio, the Fireflies had another teenage phenom in Shields, a second-round pick in the 2024 MLB Draft. After a warm-up start in the Complex League, the Pittsburgh prep prospect made 18 starts in Columbia. In 71.2 IP with the Fireflies, he was flat-out dominant. He posted a 2.01 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, a 28.3% K rate, a 23.1% K-BB%, and 2.57 FIP. These stellar numbers helped him earn Carolina League Pitcher of the Year honors. Shields showcased an easy delivery, strong stuff, and excellent command in his tenure with the Fireflies. Here's what MLB Pipeline said about Shields and his pitch repertoire in their latest scouting report: The Pennsylvania native doesn't have as electric a velocity as Chourio, but the extension and command have helped him produce more polished results in his Low-A debut. There's also a mature approach by Shields on the mound that may remind some Royals fans of Kris Bubic. However, Shields has more velocity and overall upside than the Royals lefty who made the All-Star Game this past season (primarily because Shields was drafted out of high school, unlike Bubic, who was drafted out of college). He will likely matriculate to High-A Quad Cities in 2026. He could make a move to Northwest Arkansas by midseason if he dominates Midwest League hitters like he did Carolina League hitters. The swing-and-miss stuff (31.8% CSW) and the strong ability to keep the ball on the ground (46.7% GB%) demonstrate that he can find multiple ways to get batters out, which should help him as he progresses up the Royals farm system. 2nd: Blake Mitchell, C (Highest Level: High-A) Mitchell has bounced back and forth between the top and second spot in Royals prospect rankings the past couple of seasons. In 2024, he held the title of top Royals prospect, especially after hitting 18 home runs, stealing 25 bases, and posting a 137 wRC+ in 466 plate appearances with the Fireflies. However, the Royals drafted Jac Caglianone sixth overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, and the Florida slugger immediately ascended to the top spot in the Royals system. It was also a tough season for Mitchell in 2025, in myriad ways. First off, in Spring Training, he broke a hamate bone in his hand, which forced him to start the year on the IL. When Mitchell returned to action, he struggled to get in rhythm in High-A Quad Cities, especially at the plate. In 49 games and 216 plate appearances, he only hit .207 and had two home runs. Furthermore, his ISO was only .089, a far cry from the .201 mark he posted in Low-A Columbia in 2024. Mitchell did show some positive signs offensively. His eye at the plate has been lauded, and he did post a 20.8% BB% and 0.63 BB/K ratio with the River Bandits last year. That said, his approach was sometimes a bit too passive, as evidenced by his 41.2% swing rate and 49.5% first-strike percentage last season. On a positive note, it seemed like Mitchell finally was fully healthy in Arizona this fall. As a result, he produced a solid AFL campaign in terms of results and underlying batted-ball metrics with the Surprise Saguaros, who won the AFL Championship. In 82 plate appearances, Mitchell slashed .233/.439/.317 with a .756 OPS. While he only hit one home run, he showed excellent exit velocity metrics. His 90th EV ranked in the 71st percentile, his barrel rate ranked in the 72nd percentile, his average EV ranked in the 82nd percentile, and his max EV ranked in the 98th percentile. Furthermore, Mitchell was much more aggressive, ranking in the 86th percentile in Z-Swing%. However, he still showed his highly touted plate discipline, as evidenced by his 89th percentile O-Swing% and 95th percentile BB%. In addition to solid metrics, the AFL was good for Mitchell to build some confidence, especially in big moments. The 21-year-old catcher had a walk-off single in the AFL semifinals that helped punch the Saguaros' ticket in the AFL Championship. Even though there's a lot of catching depth in the Royals system, Mitchell is impressive defensively, showing excellent athleticism and arm strength behind the plate. He threw out 31% of baserunners last year, a 16% improvement from his mark in 2024. He also stole nine bags the previous year and 25 in 2024. Thus, he has the athleticism to be a multi-tool threat at the MLB level, even as a catcher. While 2025 wasn't a season to remember for Mitchell, he's still 21 years old, and he is trending in the right direction after a productive AFL stint. He should be one to watch in 2026 as an impact prospect in this system, as long as he stays healthy. While he may start in High-A, he could move quickly and be in Northwest Arkansas before Royals fans know it. 1st: Carter Jensen, C (Highest Level: MLB) Jensen won't be a prospect for much longer, especially after accumulating 69 plate appearances with the Royals as a September call-up. That said, he had an incredible season in 2025, helping him shoot up the board on most Top-100 lists. In 111 games and 492 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A, Jensen hit .290 with 20 home runs, 72 runs scored, 76 RBI, and 10 stolen bases. He also posted a 0.49 BB/K ratio, an .878 OPS, and 136 wRC+ with the Naturals and Storm Chasers, combined. Those stellar numbers helped him earn the George Brett Hitter of the Year Award, which goes to the top Royals position prospect in the system. While his Minor League numbers were incredible, they paled in comparison to what he did in his 20-game sample with the Royals as a 21-year-old. In his MLB debut, he slashed .300/.391/.550 with three home runs, 12 runs scored, and 13 RBI. Jensen also posted a .941 OPS, a 159 wRC+, and hit one of the longest home runs in Kansas City Royals history in Sacramento. Now, Royals fans have seen solid September call-ups only to be fooled the following season. That said, Jensen's Statcast percentiles show a player who's mature beyond his years, not just in plate discipline but also in power and batted-ball ability. Those levels of red, even in a small sample, aren't prevalent at the MLB level. In fact, Jensen's underlying metrics with the Royals in September caught the attention not only of Royals fans but also of national prospect experts. Here's what Thomas Nestico of TJ Stats said about Jensen, his No. 7 overall prospect in baseball, in Jensen's latest scouting report. There's a lot to like about Jensen and what he can bring to this organization in 2026. Not just as a prospect, either, but as a regular contributor to the Royals lineup. The emergence of Jensen is a big reason Kansas City was able to deal backup catcher Freddy Fermin at the Deadline, even though he was productive in that role over the past two seasons. Even when Jensen isn't behind the plate, he should be getting regular time at designated hitter, especially against right-handed starting pitchers. While Salvador Perez signed a two-year extension, manager Matt Quatraro will likely help preserve Perez's bat and stamina by giving Jensen more innings behind the plate. That catching playing-time split should not just help the Royals in the short term (maximizing Perez's offensive production), but also help ease Jensen into being Kansas City's catcher of the future after Perez finally retires. View full article

Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images On Friday, the Royals announced two official non-tenders: reliever Taylor Clarke and outfielder MJ Melendez. The move puts their current 40-man roster at 38. The Clarke move was a bit surprising, especially since he wasn't expected to command much in arbitration, and he is coming off a solid past season with the Royals. After spending two seasons in Kansas City in 2022 (4.04 ERA) and 2023 (5.95 ERA), he returned to the Royals and thrived in a middle-innings reliever role. In 51 appearances and 55.1 IP, he posted a 3.25 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 17% K-BB%. However, his FIP was 3.97, and while he indeed sported excellent stuff metrics with the Royals last year (104 overall TJ Stuff+), he struggled to generate whiffs, and his xwOBACON was higher than one would want. With the acquisition of Alex Lange this week, it seemed like the Royals felt Clarke's role was expendable. His lack of Minor League options also gave him less flexibility in Spring Training. However, the bigger transaction of the day was the release of Melendez, a 2017 second-round pick and former top prospect who advanced through the Royals' farm system with Bobby Witt Jr. Melendez Showed Early Promise With the Royals Drafted and initially developed as a catcher, Melendez showed excellent power as a prospect in the Royals system, especially after the pandemic. Initially, he had a brutal campaign in High-A ball in 2019, hitting .163 with a .571 OPS and 39.4% K rate in 419 plate appearances. To make matters worse, he only hit nine home runs that season. While the park factors of Wilmington didn't help, the lack of power was disappointing, especially since that was his calling card when drafted out of high school. The Royals changed up their hitting development after the 2019 season, bringing on Alec Zumwalt and Drew Saylor as hitting coordinators. Melendez was a success story of the new team, absolutely thriving in 2021. Across Double-A and Triple-A ball, he led the Minor Leagues in home runs with 41, he lowered his K% to 21.7%, and improved his OPS to 1.011. He was also named Offensive Player of the Year that season by Minor League Baseball. As a result, Melendez became a Top-100 prospect in baseball heading into 2022, ranking 42nd by Baseball America, 51st by MLB Pipeline, and 32nd by Baseball Prospectus. When Melendez made his debut in 2022, the Royals were looking for a spark in what would be manager Mike Matheny's last season. He provided exactly that, spending time as the Royals' leadoff hitter that season. In 537 plate appearances, he hit 18 home runs, collected 62 RBI, scored 57 runs, and posted an OPS of .706 and a wRC+ of 97. Unfortunately, poor defense behind the plate and in the outfield (where he rarely played before he arrived in Kansas City) resulted in a -0.6 fWAR, a microcosm of what was to come in the next three years with the Royals. Power Potential, But Inconsistent Results in Kansas City Over the next two seasons, Melendez was a regular outfielder for the Royals, moving away from catcher completely. Here's a look at what he did in 2023 and 2024: 2023: .235/.316/.398, 10.3% BB%, 28.2% K%, 16 HR, 56 RBI, 93 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR in 602 PA. 2024: .206/.273/.400, 7.8% BB%, 25.1% K%, 17 HR, 44 RBI, 86 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR in 451 PA. The home run power was certainly there, and even in his down season in 2024, he posted a .194 ISO, a career-high. Unfortunately, strikeout and contact issues (career 71.6% contact rate, 79.1% Z-Contact%) deflated his batting average and his overall performance, as illustrated by sub-100 wRC+ marks. In 2025, Melendez worked with Witt's hitting coach and tried to revamp his entire swing. The change was the big story in Royals camp in Surprise, Arizona, that Spring Training. Unfortunately, the change did more harm than good. In 23 games and 65 plate appearances, Melendez slahed .083/.154/.167 with 4.6% BB%, 35.4% K%, -14 wRC+, and -0.6 fWAR. To make matters worse, many of the endearing qualities he had as a hitter, such as max exit velocity and barrel rate, plummeted dramatically last season, as illustrated in his TJ Stats metrics. Based on this slow start, the Royals optioned Melendez to Triple-A, and he pretty much spent the entire season down in Omaha. The numbers were much better with the Storm Chasers. In 107 games and 480 plate appearances, he hit 20 home runs, scored 70 runs, collected 64 RBI, stole 20 bases, and hit .261 with an .813 OPS. Unfortunately, many of the same contact problems he had with the Royals persisted in Omaha, which explains why he didn't receive much of an opportunity with Kansas City after being sent down (he was only called up once at the end of July, and he only played in seven games before going back down). There were some incentives to keep Melendez for at least another season in Kansas City. He still holds a Minor League option for next season. Additionally, he'll be 27 in 2026 and is widely liked by players in the organization, especially young homegrown players like Witt, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Michael Massey. However, it seems his expected arbitration price tag, estimated at around $2.2 million, was a bit too high for a guy who wasn't guaranteed any playing time at the Major League level next season. What is Melendez's Outlook in 2026 and Beyond? Melendez will likely get picked up by a team this offseason, though it probably will be a Minor League deal with an invite to team camp. He has a history of hitting the ball hard, and a more advantageous home run park could help him boost his offensive production. For his career, he has a 91.7 average exit velocity, a 10.1% barrel rate, and a 46.2% hard-hit rate. Those are batted-ball numbers that would intrigue any team. The big question from now on will be whether Melendez can hone his discipline at the plate, which deteriorated with each season at the MLB level. After posting a 0.50 BB/K ratio in his rookie season in 2022, it fell to 0.36 in 2023, 0.31 in 2024, and 0.13 in 2025. A significant contributor to that was an increasing O-Swinig% during those last three seasons. After posting just a 24.4% O-Swing% in 2022, it was 27.4% in 2023, 29.9% in 2024, and 31.6% in 2025. Thus, it's not a surprise that his swing-and-miss rates remained well above-average (and not in a good way) in the past three seasons, as illustrated in his rolling swing-and-miss chart via Savant. Melendez has the opportunity to pull a Ryan O'Hearn (another homegrown player who showed initial promise but disappointed in Kansas City) and turn things around in new surroundings. The talent is undoubtedly there, and this wasn't an easy decision for Royals GM JJ Picollo, especially considering Melendez was such a high draft pick. That said, it was evident that Melendez's tenure in Kansas City was done, and he needed a fresh start. View full article

On Friday afternoon, right before the MLB Non-Tender deadline, the Royals announced that they had avoided arbitration with second baseman Jonathan India, agreeing to a one-year deal. On Twitter, Ken Rosenthal reported that the deal was worth $8 million, according to sources. India came over to the Royals last offseason from the Reds in exchange for starting pitcher Brady Singer, a 2018 first-round draft pick (both players played college baseball at the University of Florida). Last year, the 28-year-old second baseman was in the final season of a two-year, $8.8 million deal he signed with the Reds before the 2023 season. However, he still had one more year of club control after the 2025 season. It was a disappointing season for India, who posted an 89 wRC+, .301 wOBA, and a -0.3 fWAR, all career lows, according to Fangraphs. He also struggled with nagging injuries, saw his power stats decline (only nine home runs, also a career low), and failed to fit in defensively. He rotated between third base, second base, and left field early in the year but struggled and eventually settled back into his natural position of second base. Unfortunately, he posted a -9 FRV and -14 OAA, both career-worst marks, according to Statcast data. On a positive note, he still showed strong plate discipline with a 9.5% walk rate and 0.51 BB/K ratio. The latter mark was the sixth-best ratio of Royals hitters with 50 or more plate appearances last year. His Statcast plate discipline percentiles also looked strong, as illustrated in his TJ Stats Statcast summary. It is possible that the Royals could still trade India before Spring Training. They likely will return Michael Massey, who has primarily played second base the past two seasons, though he struggled with inconsistency and injuries last season. Nick Loftin is also an internal option, but he only has a career 72 wRC+ and 0.2 fWAR in 143 career games at the MLB level. If he is not traded, the Royals hope India can bounce back to the 2024 version that posted a 109 wRC+ and a 2.9 fWAR in 637 plate appearances in his final season in Cincinnati. Photo Credit: © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images View full rumor

But here's more about Sherman talking payroll and he's been pretty noncomittal about a set amount, though it doesn't seem like they're planning on "cutting" at all, based from his talk. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/10/owner-john-sherman-discusses-royals-payroll.html