Kevin O'Brien

Image courtesy of Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images The Kansas City Royals and San Diego Padres have a strong history of exchanging players, especially over the past few years. In 2020, the Royals received outfielder Edward Olivares and pitcher Ronald Bolanos from the Padres for reliever Trevor Rosenthal, and also acquired outfielder Franchy Cordero in exchange for Tim Hill. In 2023, Kansas City traded away Scott Barlow for pitching prospects Henry Williams and Jesus Rios. Last season, the Padres acquired Freddy Fermin in exchange for Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek. Safe to say, Royals GM JJ Picollo and Padres GM AJ Preller are quite familiar with one another's phone numbers. Kansas City and San Diego, both of which entered Major League Baseball at the same time in 1969 (along with the Seattle Pilots and Montreal Expos, now the Brewers and Nationals, respectively), have roster needs this offseason. The Royals need to improve their lineup, outfield, and bullpen. The Padres need another starter to round out the rotation. Both teams seem willing to trade what they have to accomplish those goals, with Randy Holt writing about it from the Padres' perspective at Padres Mission. The Padres have not been afraid to spend money under Preller. However, their high payroll, rebuilding farm system, and commitment to many long-term deals on the current roster may deter them from seriously pursuing a high-end starter in free agency or trade this offseason, as Holt points out. Right now, Michael King and Nick Pivetta are the only projected arms in the rotation San Diego can trust. Joe Musgrove has been dependable in the past, but he missed all of 2025 due to Tommy John surgery. He will likely go through some growing pains after not pitching since 2024. The last two projected starters in the rotation, Randy Vasquez and JP Sears, each threw over 130 innings last season. That said, they combined for a 1.3 fWAR, and they posted FIPs of 4.85 and 5.21, respectively. Thus, it's questionable that they will be able to last a whole season in the Padres' rotation, especially if San Diego wants to compete in a tough NL West division with the Dodgers, Giants, and Diamondbacks. The Royals, on the other hand, are flush with starting pitching and have been willing to part with this surplus to address their outfield and reliever needs this offseason. Therefore, let's take a look at a couple of assets Kansas City could part with, what it could receive from San Diego, and some deals that could make sense for both sides. Bubic and Falter Could Make Sense for San Diego Kris Bubic has been one of the Royals' hottest names when it comes to trade rumors. Unfortunately, it seems like those rumors may have bled into contract negotiations this offseason. In his final season of arbitration, the Royals and Bubic failed to come to an agreement at last week's deadline, as they remain $1 million apart in their filings. Unless that gap is filled soon (i.e., concessions are made), it's likely that Bubic and the Royals will head to a hearing. With Bubic a tradeable asset and a free agent next offseason, he may not be motivated to reach an agreement and could likely take his chances in a hearing, even if it results in some lost goodwill between the two sides. Thus, Kansas City may be inclined to trade the former Stanford product sooner rather than later, especially if negotiations continue to move slowly. The Padres may be interested in Bubic, who was an All-Star last year and posted 3.3 fWAR and a 2.55 ERA over 116.1 IP. For context, his ERA was better than King's (3.44) and Pivetta's (2.87), and while Pivetta accumulated a 3.7 fWAR, he also pitched 65.1 more innings than Bubic. Over the same inning sample, Bubic likely would have surpassed Pivetta and finished 2025 as the better pitcher fWAR-wise. Even though his second half was cut short due to injury, Bubic posted the kind of stuff and strike data that would make him a welcome asset in the Padres' rotation for the upcoming season. That is illustrated in his 2025 TJ Stats summary below. Bubic posted a 103 overall TJ Stuff+, with four of his pitches sporting TJ Stuff+ marks over 100. He also had a zone rate of 51.9%, a chase rate of 32.4%, a whiff rate of 28.8%, and a xwOBACON of .344. All those marks are rated as above average for an MLB starting pitcher. There's no question that Bubic solves an immediate need for San Diego in 2026. However, would the Padres be okay with him coming to Kansas City on a one-year deal? The Padres would obviously try to negotiate an extension with him at some point, but there are no guarantees in that department, especially with how valued starting pitchers are now across the league. If the Padres are looking for a cheaper option with more long-term control, they could opt for Bailey Falter, who agreed to a $3.6 million deal this offseason to avoid arbitration. Falter obviously looks a lot worse than Bubic does in the metrics. In 125.1 IP with the Pirates and Royals last year, he posted a 4.45 ERA, 4.94 FIP, and 0.5 fWAR. He was particularly bad with the Royals after coming over at the Trade Deadline. In 12 IP, he allowed an 11.25 ERA and 5.22 FIP. Falter was demoted to the bullpen, eventually landed on the IL, and was sparingly used down the stretch. The 28-year-old lefty doesn't have as great stuff as Bubic. That said, it's serviceable enough, and he could possess more upside than Sears, the only other lefty option in the Padres' rotation. Here's a look at what Falter did last year via TJ Stats. Falter's four-seamer (101 TJ Stuff+) and sinker (99 TJ Stuff+) were intriguing pitches, with both sporting above-average grades (57). Falter also does a good job of flooding the strike zone (53.7% zone rate) and generating good extension on his pitches (7.2). With the right adjustments, he could be a solid option for the end of the Padres rotation. Furthermore, he would be under team control not just for 2026, but also for 2027 and 2028. Could Morejon and/or Laureano Come to Kansas City? The Padres seem most willing to deal a reliever from their deep bullpen, which lost Robert Suarez in free agency to the Atlanta Braves. The most likely candidate to be traded away could be lefty setup man Adrian Morejon, who had a career season in 2025. In 75 appearances and 73.2 IP, the Padres' primary lefty posted a 2.08 ERA, 2.28 FIP, and 2.2 fWAR. He also collected 13 wins and three saves. Morejon showcased an excellent command last year, posting an 18.5% K-BB%, a 0.1% improvement from 2024. However, his K rate was 24.5%, a 1.6% regression from 2024, and his 10.4% SwStr% was 1.8% lower than his mark from 2024, as well. The Cuban-born lefty was above-average in nearly every category in his TJ Stats summary last year, except whiff rate, where he rated slightly below-average. Morejon would compete for innings in the ninth on most teams. However, with Mason Miller and Jeremiah Estrada in the bullpen, both better strikeout pitchers, he is a third option at best. That could make him an expendable asset in San Diego, especially since he will be a free agent after this season. While the Padres prefer to trade relievers to upgrade their rotation, they may be open to trading Ramon Laureano, especially if it means they can get the starter they want. Like Morejon, Laureano will be a free agent after this season, and it seems unlikely that he will be part of the Padres' long-term plans. The 31-year-old outfielder was acquired from the Orioles last season, and in 488 plate appearances with Baltimore and San Diego, he hit 24 home runs, hit .281, posted a .364 wOBA, 138 wRC+, and accumulated a 3.0 fWAR. While he has a bit of a free-swinging approach, the exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit skills displayed by Laureano last season were solid, as seen below in his TJ Stats Statcast summary profile. Laureano could be a regular corner outfielder who could rotate between left field and right field seamlessly, which would allow Isaac Collins to be more flexible (possibly getting innings in center field), and/or Jac Caglianone to see more time at designated hitter. Laureano also has familiarity with the AL Central, as he played 72 games for the Guardians between 2023 and 2024. Thus, his experience in the division and his batted-ball profile should help him transition to Kauffman Stadium. What a Royals-Padres Deal Could Look Like Using Baseball Trade Values' Trade Simulator, I created a deal involving the two players I mentioned from each team. However, to make the trade work, I had to add another piece from each team. I decided to include second baseman Will Wagner from the Padres and Michael Massey from the Royals. Both are 27 years old, known more for defense than their bats, and would serve as utility players for their respective teams. I thought about including Jonathan India instead of Massey, but the values didn't work on BTV, and I had a feeling that the Padres wouldn't be willing to absorb his $8 million (Massey's $1.57 million deal is more tolerable). With the inclusion of Wagner and Massey, the deal between the Padres and Royals is, even value-wise, a win-win for both sides. The Royals get a much-needed outfielder with pop, a lefty reliever who can lock things down in the late innings with Carlos Estevez, Lucas Erceg, and Matt Strahm, and a utility infielder who can fill in at second base when India needs a day off. As for the Padres, they get their much-needed starter with No. 2 upside, a long-term No. 4-5 starter in Falter, and a second base/left field option who could hit 10-15 HRs a year and provide solid defense at the keystone, if healthy. The last positive aspect of this deal is that it would cover all the bases for both teams this offseason in terms of need. They would only need to fill out the roster with Minor League deals before Spring Training. They wouldn't need to spend major money in free agency, whatsoever. The Padres and Royals have a history of helping one another improve through trades. Let's hope that they have another one up their sleeves in the coming weeks, with this possible trade proposal as a blueprint. View full article

Yeah, I know he isn't the player he once was, but they don't need him to be. As you said, I think his role would be fine as a platoon guy who can give them an OPS over .700 and 70-90 productive games. I don't think he cares about being an everyday player, but about being on a winning team. He certainly does that and makes more sense than a lefty option like Frazier. I like Frazier and the clubhouse vibes he gives, but he doesn't bring anything to the table that a Marte-Massey-Loftin trio couldn't already.

Thanks for putting this together. It's good to see the moves other teams in the division have made and what their plans are for 2026. Detroit and Minnesota are interesting ones. Cleveland will likely stay pat for the most part, sans a MiLB deal here or there. However, Detroit has some work to do if it wants to take advantage of the Skubal window while it can. They could use another OF piece, especially if Malloy isn't coming back. Minnesota is an interesting dilemma, too. The ownership is obviously cheap, but they have some good talent there on the pitching and hitting end. They got to stay healthy, but it's not a question of seeing them surge to a hot start if all the chips fall right. But as you said, will they add to this current group or sell more pieces as they did last Deadline? Kinda hard to tell right now.

Image courtesy of Dale Zanine-Imagn Images The Chicago Cubs made big waves in the baseball world (during the Chicago Bears' comeback, nonetheless), signing free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman on a five-year, $175 million deal. The Bregman deal could spark a slew of free-agent moves, especially with pitchers and catchers less than a month away from reporting to their Spring Training sites. The Royals have certainly gotten better this offseason with various free-agent signings (Lane Thomas and Alex Lange) and trades (Isaac Collins, Nick Mears, and Matt Strahm). However, for them to truly feel better about improving on their 82-80 record a season ago, they likely will need to make another move or two, especially in regard to their outfield. One free agent option that could make some sense is Starling Marte, who previously played for the New York Mets. Marte is an older player at 37. However, he has a career 35.9 fWAR in 1,530 games, and he was a Kansas City trade target a season ago. Now, Royals fans certainly have loftier expectations when it comes to a possible free-agent or trade acquisition at this time. There's still hope the Royals could acquire Boston's Jarren Duran, St. Louis' Brendan Donovan, or perhaps New York's Jasson Dominguez via trade (or Bo Bichette, though his market has heated up with Philadelphia emerging as the favorite to acquire him). However, if the window for those options passes, could Marte fit the Royals' needs in the outfield in 2026? Let's take a look at what Marte would bring to Kansas City, and what it would take for the Royals to sign him. Marte Brings Veteran Approach to Lineup After putting up a 5.2 fWAR in 2022 with Miami and Oakland, and a 3.5 fWAR in his first season with the Mets in 2023, it's been a tough stretch for Marte in terms of production. The Dominican-born outfielder hasn't hit the century mark in games played in a season since 2022, and his combined fWAR over the past three years is 1.0 in 278 games. He also had nine home runs, seven stolen bases, scored 37 runs, and collected 34 RBI with the Mets a year ago. Last season with the Mets, he played in 98 games and posted a .326 wOBA and 112 wRC+ across 329 plate appearances. However, he had only a 0.7 fWAR, primarily because he was 7.5 runs below average according to Fangraphs' Def. Conversely, his DRS (+2) and FRV (+1) are much better, though he only played 65 innings in the outfield this past season. Thus, he could see a higher fWAR in 2026 if he can be healthy enough to play more innings in the field. When it comes to his batted-ball skills and plate discipline, his walk rate of 6.7% is relatively low, as is his 0.32 BB/K ratio. He also saw a decline in average exit velocity, from 89.8 MPH in 2024 to 87.6 MPH in 2025. The same was true with his hard-hit rate, which went from 42.9% in 2024 to 40.4% in 2025. That said, his hard-hit rate was 4.4% higher than the Royals outfielders' average hard-hit rate last season (they ranked 27th in hard-hit rate last year, via Fangraphs). Marte's Statcast summary via TJ Stats isn't eye-popping by any means. He was typically average or slightly below average across many batted-ball and plate discipline categories in 2025. That said, the Royals desperately need some consistency in the lineup, especially from an outfielder who may split time in the corner outfielder positions with Jac Caglianone and/or Isaac Collins. If the Royals acquire Marte, it wouldn't be as an everyday outfielder. Rather, it would be as someone who can rotate in and out of the lineup, depending on the matchup. Surprisingly, Marte has reverse splits over his career, with a 116 wRC+ against righties and 112 wRC+ against lefties, according to Fangraphs. He doesn't need to solely hit against lefties to be productive over the course of a 162-game season, which is a plus in his favor. The Concerns With Marte When he's been on the field, Marte has been serviceable, if not slightly more. Unfortunately, his health has been an issue, especially over the past two seasons. Last year, knee issues put him on the IL, limiting him to just 98 games and 65 innings in the field. Most of his at-bats came at DH last season (he appeared 77 times at designated hitter last year), but his profile isn't exactly "ideal" for that position. His .140 ISO was 16 points lower than the league average in that category. Then again, manager Matt Quatraro likes to be creative with the designated hitter spot, so Marte could find a lot of at-bats in that spot if he makes his way to Kansas City. That said, the Royals also want to keep that spot open for Salvador Perez, whose bat is key to the Royals' lineup. While Perez is Kansas City's primary catcher, he's been able to remain productive in the later years of his career due to his ability to get at-bats at DH and innings at first base when he needs a break from behind the plate. Thus, those injury concerns could prevent the Royals from pursuing Marte seriously, or at least initially. After all, the Royals were hurt significantly by injury last season, especially in terms of pitching. Taking a flier on a guy who hasn't proven to be durable over the past three seasons would be a significant risk by JJ Picollo and the Royals front office, especially with other options available on the free agent market at this time. Should the Royals Pursue Marte? If the Royals do offer a contract to Marte, it probably needs to come late in the offseason and/or for a deal barely above a Minor League deal. It's likely that with his hitting effectiveness last year, Marte will still get an MLB deal. That said, Spotrac currently lists his market value at around $7.78 million. It seems unlikely that he will get a contract in that range, unless a team becomes really desperate this offseason. There are pluses that Marte would bring to the Royals roster next season. He brings a decent hitting profile, a veteran approach, and can play the corner outfield positions as necessary. He has also been part of successful teams that have value that can't always be measured by individual advanced metrics. Adam Frazier brought this impact to the Royals in 2024 and 2025, his intangibles affecting a clubhouse that was 56-106 in 2023, prior to his arrival. That said, would Marte bring that same value in 2026 that Frazier would? And if that's what the Royals want, why not just bring back Frazier, who has more defensive value and versatility than Marte? The only difference is that Frazier is a left-handed bat, which they don't really need right now, while Marte hits right-handed. The 37-year-old former Met is an intriguing idea for sure, especially on a one-year deal, with the hope that he could be due for a breakout if he can stay healthy. Unfortunately, at Marte's age, players tend not to trend in the right direction injury-wise, especially when they barely play the field in the previous season. My guess is that Picollo knows that, which is why we're not hearing more about Marte this year compared to last offseason, when it seemed like a deal for Marte involving Hunter Harvey was close to fruition. The Royals have plenty of time this offseason to make the splash they need to boost their postseason chances even further. However, if it's the beginning of March, the Royals outfield remains as is, and Marte is available? Well, let's just say it wouldn't be the worst idea in the world, especially on a $5-6 million flier for one season. View full article

I think something does get done before the hearing. As you said, it's not a tremendous amount, and I think they can figure out something. Vinnie definitely feels more likely than Bubic, who seems to be on his way out this offseason. Even if they figure something out, Bubic may not be around for much longer.

I saw this! Timely for this piece to come out. Hoping Collins can get one last shot to prove himself (maybe in KC organization).

Thanks so much. I agree. Jones for Bubic is one I don't necessarily see because, as you said, the Royals probably want MLB-ready talent right now and don't know if Jones fits that mold. But the talent is intriguing; he has long-term control, and if you can make some modifications, he has big-time power that could give the Royals' lineup some security in the middle. I don't think he's a Gold Glove fielder, but I think he profiles better than Jac, which could push Cags to 1B, especially if Vinnie isn't seen as a long-term option in KC.

Image courtesy of Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images It is evident that the New York Yankees desperately need starting pitching for the upcoming 2026 season. Unfortunately, the opportunity to get a "big time" starter seems to be dwindling for the Yankees this offseason. First, Dylan Cease signed a massive free-agent deal with the Toronto Blue Jays, which took a possible target off the market early in the offseason. Furthermore, Edward Cabrera was recently traded from the Miami Marlins to the Chicago Cubs. Thus, there aren't a lot of suitors remaining, though it does appear that the Yankees may make a push for Milwaukee Brewers ace Freddy Peralta (although they won't be the lone suitors). That said, if the Yankees can't acquire Peralta or another big-name pitcher via a trade, then Kansas City could make sense for them as a trade partner. The Royals are flush with starting pitching, and the Yankees have some bats that could round out and boost the Kansas City lineup in both the short and long term. Hence, let's take a look at three trade proposals that could make sense for both sides. Note: I used Baseball Trade Values' Trade Simulator to determine values for possible trades between both teams, and TJ Stats for stuff metrics and summary graphics. Noah Cameron and John Rave for Jasson Dominguez and Camilo Doval I don't think the Royals will trade Cameron because he has tons of years of control (six) and he's a local product who hails from St. Joseph, Missouri. I think Royals fans would have a tremendous outcry if they traded a local kid who earned Royals Pitcher of the Year honors and posted a 2.99 ERA in 138.1 IP last year. However, if the Royals were to trade Cameron, it would need to be a deal where it "felt" like the Yankees overpaid for the St. Joe product. This suggested deal does just that. The 22-year-old outfielder seemed untouchable a season ago, but he may be more on the block this season, especially if the Yankees are able to bring back Cody Bellinger. Dominguez had an underwhelming season last year, posting a 106 wRC+ and 0.9 fWAR, with his defense lagging significantly behind his bat (-10 OAA). However, the former New York top prospect hits the ball hard, and with the right tweaks, he could provide the punch they may need in left field or designated hitter. A smaller-market environment could do wonders for Dominguez, as he could turn things around with the Royals, much like Melky Cabrera did when he came over to Kansas City in 2011 after spending most of his career in New York previously. In addition to Dominguez, the Royals would also acquire Doval, who used to close out games for the San Francisco Giants. The 28-year-old righty posted a 3.58 ERA and 3.47 FIP in 65.1 IP last year, which aren't exactly "eye-popping" numbers. That said, he posted an overall TJ Stuff+ of 105, a 29.8% chase rate, and a 28.4% whiff rate. Those are the kind of numbers the Royals are looking for from possible relief targets. The Royals would simply need Doval to be a middle-innings, medium-leverage reliever, not a setup man or closer (or at least not right away). Doval's presence should add even more depth to an already strong bullpen that already got stronger this offseason with the additions of Alex Lange, Matt Strahm, and Nick Mears. Getting a high-upside outfielder and a solid reliever would help lessen the blow of losing Cameron. As for Rave, he would help round out the deal, giving the Yankees a depth outfielder whose left-handed swing could profile decently in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Kris Bubic for Spencer Jones BTV seems to believe that a Bubic-Jones swap would be equal value, which intrigues me about this possibility. On one hand, I get why this could never happen, especially since Jones is three years younger and has many more years of team control than Bubic, who will be a free agent after this offseason. That said, what if Bubic and the Yankees were willing to commit to a contract extension after he was traded to New York? Tyler Glasnow did this when he was traded from Tampa Bay to the Dodgers. That scenario might make the Yankees more willing to part ways with Jones in a deal. The Royals certainly would get a high-upside bat in Jones, much like they would with Dominguez. However, Jones had no MLB experience (unlike Dominguez), and the 25-year-old outfielder is a polarizing prospect due to his wonky Statcast profile from Triple-A, as illustrated in the TJ Stats summary below. Jones thrives in average EV (100th percentile), barrel rate (99th percentile), hard-hit rate (98th percentile), and LA Sweet-Spot% (94th percentile). Conversely, he's extremely poor when it comes to contact and plate discipline. He ranks in the 6th percentile in O-Swing%, and 1st percentile in Z-Contact%, whiff%, and K%. Jones could be a 30+ HR at the MLB level. That said, he also could be a hitter who barely hits over the Mendoza line (i.e., a .200 batting average) in his career as well. With another free-swinging power outfielder on the roster in Jac Caglianone, would the Royals want a guy like Jones, who may not have a set spot in this 2026 lineup? That may be hard to believe, especially since the organization is focused on acquiring hitters with strong plate discipline profiles (which Jones DOES NOT have). Still, Jones is an intriguing, high-upside prospect who may be worth the risk for the Royals, especially if it only costs Bubic, who has struggled to stay healthy in Kansas City and is likely gone after 2026. Stephen Kolek for Oswaldo Cabrera and Paul Blackburn Kolek had a really good Royals debut after he came over from San Diego at the Trade Deadline. In five starts, he posted a 1.91 ERA and 2.71 FIP in 33.1 IP. That performance helped him earn Royals Pitcher of the Month honors in September. However, with the Royals' rotation loaded as is, it's possible that Kolek may not make the Opening Day roster. Meanwhile, Ryan Yarbrough is projected to be the Yankees' No. 5 starter on Opening Day, according to Roster Resource. Safe to say, not only does Kolek provide more value immediately than Yarbrough, but the 28-year-old righty also holds more long-term value and club control (four years). A trade that could make sense for the Royals to acquire utility player Cabrera and reliever Blackburn in exchange for Kolek. Cabrera isn't a high-profile player, as he has a career 82 wRC+ and has accumulated 1.5 fWAR in 302 career games with the Yankees. However, he can play multiple positions in the field, giving him the utility value that manager Matt Quatraro likes to utilize off the bench. Cabrera also demonstrates a pretty solid contact and discipline profile at the plate, even if there isn't a lot of pop (as illustrated in his TJ Stats Summary below). Cabrera could make sense if the Royals part ways with Michael Massey this offseason, who could be traded for a much-needed left-handed reliever (I suggested Tampa Bay's Garrett Cleavinger as an option in my last post). He would essentially fit into that Massey role, with even more positional versatility. He's also a native Venezuelan who likely would mesh with fellow countrymen Salvador Perez and Maikel Garcia. As for Blackburn, his numbers at the surface level don't look good. In 39 IP with the Mets and Yankees last year, he posted a 6.23 ERA and 1.50 FIP. However, his FIP was much better at 4.39, and he limited free passes on the basepaths with a 6.9% BB% and 12.6% K-BB%. He also showed a strong ability to induce chase last year, as well as minimize productive contact, which can be seen in his TJ Stats Summary below. The stuff overall is meh with a 98 TJ Stuff+. That said, he seems to have a great cutter (105 TJ Stuff+) as well as an above-average sweeper (103) and curveball (102). Blackburn seems like the kind of pitcher who could thrive under pitching coach Brian Sweeney and find a place as a sneaky effective middle-innings reliever in the mold of Taylor Clarke a season ago. Cabrera and Blackburn aren't as sexy a trade package as the other two in terms of return. However, they address some immediate needs and provide a good floor, even though the ceilings aren't as high as those in Dominguez's or Jones's. View full article

The Royals' future with FanDuel Sports Network is in doubt for the 2026 season. On Thursday, Evan Drellich of The Athletic reported that Kansas City and eight other teams (Braves, Tigers, Reds, Angels, Marlins, Brewers, Rays, and Cardinals) terminated their agreements with Main Street Sports Group, the parent company of FanDuel Sports Network. Main Street Sports Group had been in a questionable financial position for a while, as many teams reported missing scheduled payments. The parent company of the Fanduel Sports Network hoped that a deal with DAZN, a London-based sports streaming network, would solve its financial issues. Unfortunately, Main Street and DAZN were reportedly unable to reach an agreement, according to Tom Friend of The Sports Business Journal. Here's what Friend said in his article regarding the DAZN and Main Street negotiations. Friend reported that Fubo may be in negotiations to acquire Main Street, but it's hard to tell how far along and legitimate those talks are. According to the SBJ report, some sources have denied Fubo's involvement with Main Street, and Fubo spokespeople have denied comment. A deal for Main Street is needed for Fanduel Sports Network to remain operational after the conclusion of the NBA and NHL seasons. However, without such a deal, it's likely that Main Street would declare bankruptcy. Thus, it makes sense that the Royals and eight other clubs would decide to terminate their deal now to figure out a broadcasting plan by Spring Training. Clubs can renegotiate with Main Street if the media company's situation changes. That said, if nothing comes to fruition on Main Street's end, then it's possible that the nine teams could give their broadcast rights to Major League Baseball. Currently, MLB owns and distributes the broadcast rights for the Padres, Rockies, Guardians, Twins, Diamondbacks, and Mariners. Local fans of those teams can watch their club via a team-specific MLB.TV subscription. Whether the Royals will do that or go with another broadcasting option is yet to be determined. Photo Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images View full rumor

Image courtesy of Dennis Lee-Imagn Images On Thursday, the Kansas City Royals announced on social media that they had come to an agreement with six of their remaining arbitration-eligible players. According to Roster Resource payroll data, the following Royals players agreed to the listed salary amounts for the 2026 season. All agreed to one-year deals. Kyle Isbel: $2.7 million. Bailey Falter: $3.6 million. John Schreiber: $3.715 million. Nick Mears: $1.9 million Michael Massey: $1.57 million. Daniel Lynch IV: $1.025 million. The inclusion of these six puts the Royals' estimated payroll at $150 million for the 2026 season. That is $12 million higher than their final 2025 payroll. That said, it's likely that the payroll amount will get even higher, especially with pitcher Kris Bubic and first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino remaining without an agreement. Unless an announcement is made soon, it is likely that both players will head to arbitration. Maddie Landis of TalkSox and DiamondCentric wrote a pretty comprehensive review today of what arbitration means and how the process unfolds in Major League Baseball. Here is a key bit from Landis' article that outlines the next steps Bubic and Pasquantino will take with the Royals if no agreement is announced. MLB Trade Rumors made arbitration predictions in the offseason, expecting Bubic to command $6 million and Pasquantino to get $5.4 million. Both had solid seasons, but certainly had some issues that could explain why the Royals have balked at the players' initial asking prices. Bubic posted a 2.55 ERA, accumulated a 3.3 fWAR, and made his first All-Star team in 2025. However, he only pitched 116.1 IP and missed most of the second half due to a shoulder issue. Bubic will also be a free agent after the upcoming season, and he's been mentioned in numerous trade talks, suggesting he may not be in Kansas City's long-term plans. As for Pasquantino, he led the Royals with 32 home runs and 113 RBI. Conversely, he posted only 1.5 fWAR last year due to lackluster baserunning and defense at first base. For context, Isbel's fWAR was only 0.4 lower than Pasquantino's, and he's making half of Pasquantino's estimated amount. The last time the Royals had an arbitration hearing with a player was in 2023, when they prevailed against Brady Singer. The former Florida Gator had a letdown year after the hearing, going from a 3.23 ERA and 3.0 fWAR in 153.1 IP in 2022 (pre-hearing) to a 5.52 ERA and 1.9 fWAR in 159.2 IP in 2023 (post-hearing). Hopefully, a deal can be reached soon with Bubic and Pasquantino to avoid hearings, which can often be messy and affect long-term relationships with players. View full article

Image courtesy of Matt Marton-Imagn Images The Kansas City Royals have been aggressively adding to their bullpen this offseason. First, they picked up former Detroit Tiger (and KC Metro area product) Alex Lange. Then, they acquired Nick Mears from the Brewers (along with outfielder Isaac Collins) in a deal for Angel Zerpa. Lastly, Kansas City solidified its late-inning reliever depth by acquiring Matt Strahm from Philadelphia for Jonathan Bowlan. However, it seems like the Royals aren't done adding to the bullpen just yet, as MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers reported in her latest article. According to Rogers, the Royals are still in the hunt for left-handed bullpen help and are willing to address that need through the trade market. Here's what Rogers said in her article about what they are looking for specifically in regard to bullpen help this offseason. Right now, the only left-handed reliever with Minor League options is Daniel Lynch IV, who has one remaining. Bailey Falter, who moved to the bullpen after struggling in a couple of the starts with the Royals after coming over from Pittsburgh at last year's Trade Deadline, doesn't have one. Thus, the former Pirates lefty would need to stay with the Royals roster all season to avoid being designated for assignment. Thus, with left-handed relievers a priority this offseason, who are some trade targets that could make sense for Kansas City to pursue in the coming weeks? And what would it take from the Royals' end to acquire that much-needed bullpen help? Let's look at three candidates that could be acquired by the Royals and why they would make sense for the Royals in 2026 and possibly beyond. (All graphics and data courtesy of TJ Stats.) Garrett Cleavinger, Tampa Bay Rays The Rays have a bit of a logjam in their closer situation for the upcoming season. With the departure of Pete Fairbanks, the main spot in the ninth inning seems to be up for grabs. The Rays have Edwin Uceta, Griffin Jax, and Cleavinger as possible options in the ninth, and they all bring their fair share of positives and negatives to the role. Cleavinger is an interesting candidate because he posted solid numbers last season. In 61.1 IP, he posted a 2.35 ERA, 33.7% K rate, and 26.3% K-BB%. However, his FIP was high at 3.59, primarily due to an 18.8% HR/FB rate allowed last season. While the move back to Tropicana Field should help suppress that rate a bit, the 31-year-old reliever also saw his hard-hit rate increase from 33.8% in 2024 to 41.2% in 2025, and his average exit velocity allowed go up by 1.9 MPH as well. Hence, he may not be trusted in the ninth as much as Uceta or Jax. The Rays have always been willing to trade relievers to address other needs, and Cleavinger could be an avenue for them to accomplish that goal. Right now, Tampa Bay's situation at second base looks bleak after they traded away Brandon Lowe to Pittsburgh, as Richie Palacios and Ryan Vilade are the only options for now. Could the Royals acquire Cleavinger for Michael Massey, who could provide pop and strong defense at the keystone for the Rays, if healthy? Massey is a much better defender than Palacios, as Massey has a +6 FRV at second base in his career, while Palacios has a -1 FRV. Additionally, while Palacios has a career 100 wRC+, 19 points better than Massey, the Royals' second baseman has a 1.8 fWAR, which is 0.4 better than Palacios'. Thus, Tampa Bay may be interested in a second baseman who could be a "Lowe-Lite," and under team control until 2029. Cleavinger doesn't have any Minor League options, which limits his current roster flexibility. That said, his stuff was stellar last year, as he sported a 102 overall TJ Stuff+ and also sported a chase rate of 31.2% and whiff rate of 35.9%. He likely would be a solid option in the middle innings who could step into high-leverage situations when Strahm is unavailable. Dylan Dodd, Atlanta Braves The Braves have been aggressive in adding to the bullpen this offseason after missing out on the postseason a year ago. They acquired Padres closer Ranger Suarez and Yankees setup man Ian Hamilton to give support to projected closer Raisel Iglesias, who saved 29 games a year ago. They also have strong lefties in Dylan Lee and Aaron Bummer who can pitch in high-leverage situations. Thus, an odd man out in the Braves bullpen is Dodd, who posted a 3.60 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 35 IP a season ago. Roster Resource projects that the 27-year-old lefty won't make the Opening Day roster, as he still has a Minor League option remaining. If he were traded to Kansas City, he likely would replace either Lynch or Falter's spot on the roster. Dodd doesn't have great stuff, based on TJ Stats metrics (94 TJ Stuff+ overall). However, he's effective at generating chase (33.5%) and whiffs (30.3%), two areas the Royals are trying to improve in 2026. The Braves could trade Dodd for Nick Loftin, who doesn't seem to have an opportunity for much playing time right now. Loftin is a utility player who could play multiple positions in Atlanta and would strike out a lot less (14.4% K%) than other bench options like Vidal Brujan (22.1% K%) and Eli White (25.8% K%). A trade of Loftin for Dodd would be a win-win for both the Royals and Braves, as well as the two players, who should get more of an opportunity in a fresh new location. Jordan Wicks, Chicago Cubs The Cubs have been buyers when it comes to pitching this offseason. They added free agent relievers Hunter Harvey (a former Royal), Phil Maton, Jacob Webb, and Hoby Milner to boost the bullpen. Furthermore, Chicago acquired Edward Cabrera from the Marlins in a trade on Wednesday, which should solidify the Cubs' rotation for 2026. However, all the additions have bumped the 26-year-old Wicks from the MLB mix, as he is projected to begin the year in Triple-A Iowa, according to Roster Resource. Wicks hasn't been great at the MLB level, posting a 5.21 ERA and 4.79 FIP across 26 games and 95 IP. However, he made the move to the bullpen last year and seemed much better in the role. While his ERA and WHIP were high at 6.28 and 1.74, respectively, his FIP was much better at 3.34. He showed impeccable control with a 54.4% zone rate and 17.9% K-BB%. He also put up the latter despite a 19.4% K%. Another positive about Wicks' profile is that he generates a ton of chase, as he sported a 40.4% chase rate a year ago. The stuff is average at 100, but his slider and sweeper are his best pitches with 105 TJ Stuff+ marks. That works a lot better in relief than as a starter. He is also a local product, having attended Kansas State. The Royals have seemed motivated to get local guys this offseason, as illustrated by the Lange and Kameron Misner (Mizzou) moves. The Cubs could use some help off the bench, and someone like Massey or Tyler Tolbert could fit the bill in exchange for Wicks, especially if Kevin Alcantara's strikeout issues don't improve (33.3% K% in 12 PA with the Cubs last year). Tolbert struck out less than 20% last year (19.3% to be specific), and he can play multiple positions in the infield and outfield. Furthermore, he could be a nice baserunning option off the bench for the Cubs, which is something the Cubs prioritize, as they ranked 3rd in stolen bases a season ago. View full article

I like Zobac as a bounceback for the Royals this year. He hurt his knee early in the year and don't think he ever really recovered from that. Now that he's fully healthy, I think he could surprise and be a factor in the rotation or bullpen at some point in 2026.

Image courtesy of Bill Streicher-Imagn Images Opening Day is 77 days away. That feels close (typically anything under 100 days does), which means that Royals fans are thinking about what the roster will look like when they travel to Atlanta for their Opening Series. The Royals have certainly made their fair share of moves this offseason in an effort to get better and improve upon their 82-80 record from a season ago. They upgraded the outfield via free agency and trades and also got better by adding a high-leverage lefty reliever who can shut things down in the late innings. That said, it doesn't feel like Kansas City is quite done, and it wouldn't be surprising to see them make another big move or two before pitchers and catchers report in mid-February. While the club will continue to change over the next month, maybe two, let's take a look at what the Royals' Opening Day roster would look like if their opener against the Braves were tomorrow. Pitchers Starting Rotation Cole Ragans Michael Wacha Kris Bubic Seth Lugo Noah Cameron Ragans was mentioned in trade rumors early in the offseason, but it seems like the Royals are committed to him at least in 2025. Even though he posted a 4.67 ERA, he still posted a 2.1 fWAR and had a 14.30 K/9 in 61.2 IP. He should continue to be the "ace" of this rotation if healthy. Wacha and Lugo are the veterans of the staff, having signed extensions in the past calendar year. Wacha was solid again for the Royals, posting a 3.86 ERA and 3.6 fWAR in 172.2 IP, which led all Royals starters last year. He should continue to be the No. 2 starter in the rotation in 2026. As for Lugo, he took a step back after his Cy Young runner-up campaign in 2024. He posted a 4.15 ERA and 0.5 fWAR in 145.1 IP. However, he could be due for a bounce-back in 2026 if fully healthy. Bubic is a question mark for this rotation as his name has been frequently mentioned in trade talks this winter. He will be a free agent after 2026, and it doesn't seem likely that the Royals will sign him to an extension like Wacha, Lugo, or even Ragans. Thus, it's expected that Bubic won't be on this roster in our next rendition of these Opening Day roster projections. The last spot in the rotation will likely go to Cameron, who earned Royals Pitcher of the Year honors after posting a 2.99 ERA and 1.8 fWAR in 138.1 IP. However, there could be some competition for that fifth spot if Cameron struggles in Spring Training or if Bubic is traded away. Trade-Deadline acquisitions Ryan Bergert posted a 3.66 ERA in 76.1 IP with the Padres and Royals last year, and Stephen Kolek also sported a 3.51 ERA in 112.2 IP with San Diego and Kansas City. They could be in play for a rotation spot in 2026 if something opens up this offseason. Relievers Carlos Estevez Lucas Erceg Matt Strahm John Schreiber Nick Mears Alex Lange Daniel Lynch IV Bailey Falter After saving 42 games and posting a 2.45 ERA in 66 IP with the Royals last year, Estevez is pretty much guaranteed the closer role again in 2026. Erceg should also be solidified as the Royals' primary setup man, especially after posting a 2.64 ERA in 61.1 IP. That said, both could do a better job of generating strikeouts in 2026 as both sported K/9 marks under eight last year. That isn't an issue with Strahm, who posted a 10.11 K/9 and 2.74 ERA in 62.1 IP. He should be the Royals' primary left-handed high-leverage reliever and could see closing opportunities when Estevez or Erceg aren't available. Now that Strahm is on board, that should put Schreiber in fewer high-leverage opportunities, which may suit him better. Mears and Langre are new middle-innings options who should provide some chase and velocity that was missing from the bullpen last season. Lynch IV and Falter should round out the bullpen as long-relief/spot starter options. Lynch has pitched some middle-innings relief before, so he could see more action than Falter, who's primarily been a starter in his career. Falter is out of Minor League options, but the Royals opted to tender him a contract, which makes it seem like they are going to give him a serious shot to show that he can rebound in 2026 after a poor showing with the Royals in 2025 (11.25 ERA in 12 IP). If Falter continues to struggle in Spring Training, the Royals have a plethora of options on the 40-man roster who could replace him. The Royals said they still plan on developing Luinder Avila as a starter, which likely means he begins the year in Omaha again. However, he posted a 1.29 ERA in 14 IP with the Royals as a reliever last year, and he could thrive in that role again in 2026. Mason Black is an option from the Giants who could thrive in a hybrid role, though his stuff could use some refinement. Steven Cruz gave the Royals some quality innings with a 3.74 ERA in 45.2 IP. However, he needs to show he can generate more strikeouts with his velocity. Lastly, James McArthur, who closed games for the Royals in 2023 and 2024, should return to the mound in 2026. Since he has a Minor League option, the Royals will likely take it slow with him and let him develop a bit in Omaha. Position Players Catchers Salvador Perez Carter Jensen Perez and Jensen are two no-brainers for this roster on Opening Day (barring injury). The Royals captain signed a two-year extension and is coming off a 30-HR season. Jensen had a sensational rookie debut, posting a 159 wRC+ in 69 plate appearances. The top Royals prospect in the system still has some work to do behind the plate, but he should help give Perez some days off. That should keep the 35-year-old Royals legend's bat fresher over a full 162-game season, as he can play first base and designated hitter when Jensen is behind the dish. Jorge Alfaro was recently signed to a Minor League deal on Monday, and he could be an emergency option for the Royals, like Aaron Nola two seasons ago and Luke Maile last year. However, he likely will begin the year in Omaha. First Base Vinnie Pasquantino The "Pasquatch" led the Royals in home runs (32) and RBI (113). His 116 wRC+ was also the third-best mark of any Royals player with 100 or more plate appearances last season. Pasquantino still has some work to do defensively, which explains his 1.5 fWAR last year despite his gaudy offensive numbers. That said, he has proven that he can handle regular 1B duties for the Royals, with the ability to DH when Salvy needs to play in that spot. Second Base Jonathan India Michael Massey Nick Loftin Second base was a weak spot for the Royals last year. Newcomer India struggled in his debut season in Kansas City, posting an 89 wRC+ and -0.3 fWAR in 567 plate appearances. Massey wasn't much better, as he struggled in an injury-plagued campaign. He had a 57 wRC+ and -0.4 fWAR in 277 plate appearances. India provides more offensive upside, and he should be due for some positive regression after a nightmarish 2025. Conversely, Massey is a better defensive player and can play left field if needed (unlike India, who struggled in his short stints at third and left last season). I listed Loftin here at second base, though he is more of a utility player with the ability to play third, left field, and first base. Loftin has a disciplined plate approach, as he put up a 0.52 BB/K ratio last year and a 0.79 BB/K ratio in 2024. Unfortunately, he's pretty punchless with the bat, only sporting a 73 wRC+. It wouldn't be surprising to see Adam Frazier replace Loftin's spot on the roster if the Royals decide to bring back the veteran this offseason. Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. The two-time All-Star, Gold-Glove winner, and Silver Slugger should be the Opening Day shortstop in Kansas City unless he gets hurt in Spring Training. Fans should expect another big season from Witt, with the hope that he can capture his first AL MVP award in 2026 after finishing second in 2024 and fourth in 2025. Third Base Maikel Garcia After not starting on Opening Day in 2025 (which was primarily due to a Pasquantino injury that required Cavan Biggio to play first base), Garcia ended up being the best Royals player not named Witt. The 25-year-old Venezuelan hit a career-high 16 home runs, posted a 121 wRC+, and accumulated a 5.6 fWAR in 666 plate appearances and earned his first All-Star appearance and Gold Glove last season. The Royals rewarded him with a multi-year extension this offseason, thus keeping him and Witt in Kansas City until at least 2030. Outfielders Isaac Collins Kyle Isbel Jac Caglianone Lane Thomas Tyler Tolbert The starting outfield would likely consist of Collins in left field, Isbel in center field, and Caglianone in right field if Opening Day were tomorrow. Collins posted a 122 wRC+ last year with the Brewers, and his disciplined plate approach would be welcomed in the middle of the lineup. Isbel is mostly out there for defense, but he proved serviceable in the nine-hole last year. Lastly, Caglianone struggled in his rookie year, posting a 46 wRC+ and -1.6 fWAR in 232 plate appearances. That said, the projections remain pretty optimistic about Caglianone's 2026 outlook, and his exit velocity and barrel metrics last year were solid despite his struggles. Thomas most likely would start as a fourth outfielder, but he could move into a starting role if he can partially channel his 2023 self. It is unlikely that he will hit 28 home runs, steal 20 bases, post a 109 wRC+, and accumulate 2.6 fWAR with the Royals as he did with the Nationals that season. However, he has some proven history at the plate that Isbel doesn't. If Thomas is healthy and recovered, he could be the Royals' starting centerfielder by mid-season. Tolbert likely will serve as the Royals' "speed weapon" off the bench in 2026, which makes sense considering he stole 21 bases in only 57 plate appearances. He hit .280 and can play multiple positions in the infield and outfield, making him a flexible weapon who can be subbed in key spots in the late innings. Dairon Blanco, who injured his Achilles last year and never looked the same after it, could serve in that "speed weapon" role if Tolbert struggles. Blanco stole 31 bases in 88 games in 2024. Some outfield options who could sneak their way on the Opening Day roster include John Rave and Kameron Misner. Rave made his MLB debut last season and showed spurts of effectiveness at times, but he only posted a 65 wRC+ in 175 plate appearances last year. He has some defensive versatility, able to play all three outfield positions effectively. That could make him a bench option if Tolbert or Blanco aren't effective. As for Misner, he's hit 46 home runs in Triple-A the past three seasons, but he failed to put that together with the Rays. In 232 career plate appearances, he has a 62 wRC+ and 0.1 fWAR. He struggles with strikeouts, as evidenced by his 34.1% career K rate at the MLB level. Still, he could be a sleeper option if the Royals' hitting coaches can help tap into his potential this spring. View full article

On Monday, Aram Leighton of Just Baseball reported that the Royals agreed to a Minor League deal with catching veteran Jorge Alfaro. The 32-year-old catcher started in the Phillies organization, but has played with the Marlins, Padres, Rockies, Red Sox, and Nationals. In 14 games in D.C. last season, he posted a 54 wRC+ and -0.3 fWAR in 39 plate appearances. According to his Statcast summary via TJ Stats, Alfaro showed some ability to launch the ball and hit the ball with some above-average exit velocity. That said, the rest of his metrics were paltry, especially in the plate discipline areas. Alfaro hasn't been exceptional defensively over his career. He has a -19 DRS, -2.1 FRM, and -17 FRV in 3,481 career innings behind the plate. Thus, even if Alfaro makes the Majors, it is likely that he wouldn't be a long-term option for the Royals. Though it isn't official, the Royals will likely invite Alfaro to Spring Training for catching depth. He will also likely begin the year in Omaha, serving as an emergency catcher who can be promoted and serve as a backup catcher if anything happens to Salvador Perez or top prospect Carter Jensen. Luke Maile served in this role last year and posted a 99 wRC+ and 0.3 fWAR. Like Alfaro, he was inconsistent with his plate discipline, but Maile was more patient at the plate (86th percentile walk rate) and showed more upside with his batted-ball metrics with the Royals a season ago. Maile is still a free agent, so it's possible that the Royals could still bring him back on a Minor League deal. Regardless, the Royals likely want some depth in Omaha, since top catching prospects Blake Mitchell and Ramon Ramirez are still a couple of years away from debuting in the show (at the earliest). Photo Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images View full rumor

Image courtesy of Denny Medley-Imagn Images On Sunday, the Royals on social media announced that they had agreed to a three-year extension with manager Matt Quatraro. Quatraro was entering the final year of his current deal this season, and his extension will not kick in until 2027. His newest deal is guaranteed until 2029, with the Royals holding a club option for 2030. The Royals hired Quatraro to replace previous manager Mike Matheny after the 2022 season. After a rough 56-106 debut season, the former Tampa Bay Rays bench coach has had strong success as Kansas City's skipper. Over the past two years, his teams have finished 86-76 and 82-80, respectively. It is the first time the Royals have had back-to-back winning seasons since 2014 and 2015 under manager Ned Yost, who led the Royals to two AL Pennants and a World Series title. In his first managerial job at the Major League level, Quatraro holds an overall record of 224-262. He led the Royals to the postseason in 2024, sweeping the Baltimore Orioles in two games in the AL Wild Card round before falling to the Yankees in four games in the ALDS. He was named a runner-up for the AL Manager of the Year award in 2024, losing to Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt that season. In addition to Quatraro, the Royals will return bench coach Paul Hoover, lead hitting coach Alec Zumwalt, and pitching coach Brian Sweeney, who have all held those positions since Quatraro took over as manager (Zumwalt was promoted to hitting coach in 2022 under Matheny after they fired previous hitting coach Terry Bradshaw). New coaches on the staff for 2026 include assistant hitting coaches Connor Dawson and Marcus Thames, who come from the Brewers and White Sox, respectively, and assistant pitching coach Mike McFerran, who comes from the Athletics. Former assistant hitting coaches Keoni DeRenne and Joe Dillon were not retained, and former assistant pitching coach Zach Bove took the lead pitching coach position with the White Sox this offseason. View full article

On January 1st, Derek Carty's The BAT X projections went live on Fangraphs, much to the fanfare of fantasy baseball players and fans everywhere. For those unfamiliar with The BAT X, Carty defines his projection system in an article on The Athletic from May 19th, 2025. Here is a summary of The BAT X in his words: The incorporation of Statcast data is a significant departure from the original BAT projection system, making The BAT X a bit more accurate and comprehensive. While the BAT projections are still live and available on Fangraphs, it is more commonplace for baseball fans and fantasy baseball managers to rely more on Carty's latest projection system. I have already broken down hitters, starting pitchers, and relief pitchers in my latest series on Royals projections via Steamer, which typically is one of the first projections to drop in the offseason. Thus, I am not going to do the same with the BAT X, especially since only hitter projections are available on Fangraphs right now. That said, as with any set of projections, there are some intriguing data points regarding certain players' outlooks for the upcoming season. So, in this post, I am going to focus on four hitters and my takeaways from their BAT X projections for 2026. Below is a table of all Royals hitters that the BAT X profiles in its projections, with a sortable data table available at this link. I have organized hitters by Fantasy Points (FPTS), mainly because BAT X is better suited to fantasy baseball purposes given its offensive focus. Even for non-fantasy baseball people, organizing by FPTS gives readers an idea of who the most productive hitters will be for the Royals in 2026, based on BAT X. Let's take a look at those four hitters and what Royals fans should be expecting for 2026, based on this latest projection set. Expectations More Modest For Caglianone In my Steamer projections post, Jac Caglianone seemed like the most significant rebound candidate for the Royals in 2026. After hitting seven home runs and posting a 46 wRC+ in 232 plate appearances in 2025, Steamer projected Caglianone to hit 16 home runs and post a 110 wRC+ in 418 plate appearances. That is a remarkable improvement and would make him one of the Royals' best hitters. The BAT X is a little more cautious in their projection of Caglianone. In 514 projected plate appearances, they still project the former Florida product to hit 16 home runs and collect 61 RBI. However, they also project an 85 wRC+, a 25-point difference from his Steamer projection. What's interesting about Caglianone's difference in projection is that there isn't much difference in their projected plate discipline metrics. Steamer is projecting a 0.36 BB/K ratio while the BAT X is projecting a 0.32 mark. Obviously, Steamer is higher, but the difference is negligible. The most significant difference is in BABIP, as BAT X is projecting a BABIP of .272 while Steamer is projecting a .286. That not only affects wRC+, but also batting average (.227 to Steamer's .255) and OPS (.678 to .769). The BAT X does account for launch angle, and Caglianone's LA Sweet-Spot% of 29.7% ranked in the bottom percentile of the league. His radial chart below also shows that, while the rookie outfielder hit the ball hard most of the time, he hit it too often on the ground, resulting in more outs than base hits. Thus, the BAT X believes that Caglianone will not make enough gains just yet in launch angle to improve his BABIP and, therefore, overall production. However, the Royals and Caglianone have been aware of these MLB struggles with launch angle, and his 14.1-degree average launch angle in Triple-A was 10 degrees higher than his average in the Majors (4.1 degrees). If Caglianone can see more launch on batted balls in 2026, especially early on, he could outperform his BAT X projection and put up something closer to his Steamer outlook. Could There Be A Battle Between Isbel and Rave in Center Field? Two players who also stuck out in interesting ways were outfielders Kyle Isbel and John Rave. Now, Isbel is a strong defensive player, and his +10 FRV ranked third among all Royals fielders last year with 25 or more innings. However, Rave wasn't that much worse, as he put up a +3 FRV in only 432 innings, 600 fewer innings than Isbel. It's possible that Rave could've matched Isbel over a similar sample of innings. Now, the reason I bring this up is that the difference between Isbel and Rave's BAT X projections is minuscule, with Rave holding a slight advantage, as seen below. Isbel: 480 PA, 7 HR, 51 R, 37 RBI, 11 SB, 67 wRC+, 370.1 FPTS Rave: 144 PA, 3 HR, 15 R, 12 RBI, 3 SB, 68 wRC+, 121 FPTS Obviously, Isbel has better counting numbers, but he also has 336 more plate appearances than Rave. Conversely, the 28-year-old outfielder has a slightly higher wRC+. Thus, like the defensive metrics, it's possible that there would be less of a gap between Isbel and Rave offensively with more Rave plate appearances. When looking at the Statcast metrics of both players, they look pretty similar from a year ago. Here's a glimpse at Isbel's via TJ Stats. Now, let's take a look at Rave's. Isbel makes more contact, but chases a lot more and doesn't pull the ball as much. On the flip side, Rave whiffs more, but chases less and pulls the ball more. Considering the new Royals' hitting staff's philosophy seems to be to minimize chasing, Rave may fit the Royals' lineup better than Isbel in 2026, solely on offensive profile. Now, I'm not saying that the Royals should bury Isbel on the bench. Instead, it wouldn't hurt JJ Picollo to explore the trade market to see what kind of value Isbel may have. Players with similar defensive-first profiles like Michael A. Taylor have been widely sought, so it's possible that trading Isbel away could help upgrade their farm system or give them some depth in the corner outfield position, where more power is needed. Again, I doubt the Royals do this, especially given Isbel's defensive value and his standing in the clubhouse (he's one of the longest-tenured Royals on the roster). Still, if Rave has a hot Spring Training, a trade involving Isbel may be something to keep an eye on before Opening Day. Expect an MVP-Caliber Season From Witt It was a "down season" for Bobby Witt Jr., which is crazy to say after he posted an 8.0 fWAR season in 2025. However, he posted a 10.5 fWAR season in 2024, and his 130 wRC+ last year was 39 points lower than his mark during his AL MVP-runner-up campaign. Fair or not, Witt's incredible 2024 season will always be the standard for him every season. The good thing is that on the offensive end, the BAT X expects some bounce-back from Witt. In 665 plate appearances, Witt is projected to hit 30 home runs, score 106 runs, collect 96 RBI, steal 37 bases, and post a 135 wRC+. All those marks are better than his Steamer projections, including wRC+ (Steamer projects a 133 mark). The BAT X also projects a .230 ISO, a 25-point increase from his 2025 ISO and 11 points above his Steamer-projected ISO. That kind of power projection is good to see, especially since that seemed to be an area where Witt regressed a season ago. A reason for the optimistic BAT X projections for Witt is that the Statcast profile still was stellar from the Royals' franchise star last year. Here's a look at his Stacast Summary profile via TJ Stats, and notice the amount of red, especially in the exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit categories. The only blemish with Witt's profile is that he chases a reasonable amount (30th percentile O-Swing%), and he could do a better job of pulling the ball (14th percentile). Conversely, he did pull the ball in the air 13.7% of the time, which did put him in the 43rd percentile. It's still not up to superstar standards, but it's a step in the right direction and suggests some improvement could be on the way in 2026. For the Royals to make the postseason in 2026, Witt needs to be closer to his 2024 self offensively while still maintaining his 2025 defense (which netted him a second-straight Gold Glove award). If the Pull Air% continues to improve, I think it's not out of the question that the player expected to produce 1,009.2 FPTS by BAT X could be even better in 2026. The BAT X is projecting a good baseline for him in this upcoming season. With the proper adjustments to his pitch recognition and ability to pull the ball (which I think Connor Dawson and Marcus Thames can help him out with), he could push for another AL MVP run against the Yankees' Aaron Judge. That, in turn, could make the Royals not only playoff-bound but possible contenders, especially with a deeper roster in 2026 than in 2024. View full article