Kevin O'Brien

Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images Much has been made about Seth Lugo and his outlook for the 2026 season. For the Royals to have a chance at an AL Central Division title and return to the postseason, Kansas City will need a Lugo closer to his 2024 form than to his 2025 version. In 2024, he went 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, 3.77 K/BB ratio, and 4.7 fWAR in 206.2 IP. That performance helped him not only earn the Bruce Rice Pitcher of the Year award (which goes to the Royals' best pitcher), but it also garnered him AL Cy Young runner-up honors to Detroit's Tarik Skubal. Thus, after 2024, it seemed like Kansas City had a top-of-the-rotation arm that could complement Cole Ragans for at least a few more seasons. Unfortunately, Lugo took a step back in 2025, much to the Royals' and Kansas City fanbase's chagrin. Due to various injuries, he only pitched 145.1 innings, and the numbers regressed in that small sample as well. He posted a 4.15 ERA, 5.09 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 2.27 K/BB ratio, and 0.5 fWAR. Even though the Royals gave him an extension near the end of the season (keeping him in Kansas City until at least 2027), many fans wondered at the end of the 2025 season if Lugo had peaked in 2024 and would be on the decline for the remainder of his career. At 36, he is at an age when such career regression is common. The 34th-round pick in the 2011 MLB Draft out of Centenary College of Louisiana made his Spring Training debut this season and held his own in two innings of work. He threw 27 pitches and struck out one while allowing two hits, zero runs, and zero walks. Lugo was also efficient with his pitch mix, posting intriguing stuff and strike metrics, according to his TJ Stats summary below. His overall TJ Stuff+ was just 97, and he only had three pitches with a TJ Stuff+ over 100 and one with a 55 grade (his curveball). He was also a bit inconsistent when it came to finding the strike zone, as illustrated by his 44.4% zone rate. However, his chase rate was 40%, his whiff rate was 28.6%, and his xwOBACON was .327. That's not bad for a first Spring Training start, especially for a veteran who's just trying to ramp up and stretch himself out in preparation for Opening Day. The results and overall profile of Lugo don't matter too much, especially considering this is just one Cactus League outing. However, his curveball was an interesting offering, even if it was only thrown two times against the Cubs. It's an intriguing pitch to watch this spring, as it regressed a bit in 2025 from 2024, and one could argue that its effectiveness decline partially explains Lugo's struggles a season ago. Let's take a look at the changes in Lugo's curve, why that's important, and what kind of takeaways Royals fans could have on the pitch from Lugo's 2026 Cactus League debut. Lugo's Curve Saw a Decline in Velocity and Pitch Quality On Monday, Nick Pollack of Pitcher List released his Kansas City Royals SP Breakdown. Pollack breaks down all the rotations of every MLB team before Opening Day, and his SP Breakdown series is one of the best annual deep dives out there for fantasy baseball diehards. Below is a link to Pollack's latest piece, focusing on the Royals' starting pitchers for 2026. As expected, Pollack broke down Lugo and his outlook for 2026. The Pitcher List founder focused on Lugo's curveball and how it changed in 2024, which contributed to his decline in success last season. Curious by Pollack's comments, I did a TJ Stats summary comparison of Lugo from 2024 to 2025, and below is what that data set looked like. Lugo saw declines across many metrics last season. His overall TJ Stuff+ went from 99 to 98, and that seemed to contribute to his regression in all his overall categories via TJ Stats. His chase rate increased from 29.3% in 2024 to 23.8% in 2025. His whiff rate went from 22.4% to 20.5%. Lastly, his went xwOBACON went from .363 to .427. The only category where he saw improvement was zone rate, which rose from 48% to 51.1%. That said, while he threw more pitches in the strike zone in 2025, it also made him more hittable. His expected batting average against went from .240 in 2024 to .256 in 2025. While many of Lugo's pitches regressed from 2024 to 2025, the curveball trend stood out the most. Here's what the breakdown of the pitch was in both 2024 and 2025, via TJ Stats. 2024: 16.2% usage, 79.8 MPH, -14.5 iVB, -14.6 HB, 3,283 spin, 109 TJ Stuff+, 68 grade, 41.9% zone, 41.1% chase, 33.6% whiff, and .367 xwOBACON. 2025: 18.2% usage, 78.9 MPH, -13.8 iVB, -14.4 HV, 3,237 spin, 106 TJ Stuff+, 64 grade, 47.5% zone, 32.5% chase, 25.9% whiff, and .442 xwOBACON. Lugo threw the pitch two percent more in 2025 than in 2024. However, nearly everything worsened, except the zone rate. That said, for a pitch that generated so much chase and whiff in 2024, throwing it more in the zone was actually counterintuitive and led to worse results, especially in whiff rate and xwOBACON. The key difference seemed to be the decline in velocity. Not only was it 0.9 MPH slower in 2025 than in 2024, but it was also his slowest curveball MPH since 2020, as seen in the chart below via Baseball Savant. In addition to a decline in velocity, Lugo's curve also experienced a decline in spin rate last season. His 3,237 spin was 46 RPM lower than his 2024 spin. Furthermore, like velocity, his curveball spin had the lowest RPM since 2020, as seen in the chart below via Savant. A decline in spin and velocity often leads to a regression in pitch quality, and that was the case with Lugo's curve last season. His TJ Stuff+ declined by three, and his curveball grade declined by four from 2024 to 2025. Granted, some of it may have been due to injury. A finger injury at the beginning of the year and later a back issue seemed to not only force him to pitch fewer innings but also produce fewer quality outings on the mound. It's likely that those two issues also affected his velocity, spin, and the overall quality of his curveball last season, based on the data. What Did the Heatmap Data Look Like From 2024 and 2025? In order to understand the decline in Lugo's curveball effectiveness, it seemed essential to explore the heatmap data on Lugo's curve from 2024 to 2025. Seeing where the pitch was located and the results against left-handed and right-handed batters could give a glimpse of what went wrong for Lugo last year with his primary breaking pitch. Let's explore what his curveball heatmap looked like from last season. As one can see above, Lugo threw the pitch way too much in the zone, against both lefties and righties. He produced decent CSW rates, with a 32.2% mark against lefties and 33.7% against righties. Furthermore, his whiff rates were solid as well: 25.5% against lefties, 27.3% against righties. However, when opposing hitters made contact, they did damage. He allowed a .462 xwOBACON against lefties with his curve and a .374 mark against righties. Here's an example of Lugo leaving up his curveball in the zone against right-handed hitter Marcell Ozuna. He absolutely punishes it for a home run at Kauffman Stadium in late July. TUE3TVlfWGw0TUFRPT1fQUFaVlUxMVdWQU1BRHdjQ1ZnQUhBZ0ZTQUFNRkJsa0FWd1FNVWdSV0FBQUdDQUlB.mp4 Now, let's take a glance at his curveball heatmap data from 2024, via TJ Stats. The curveball against lefties is pretty much located in the same area as 2025. However, the results were much better: the CSW was 4.3% better, the whiff rate was 7.5% higher, and the xwOBACON was 79 points lower. The better pitch velocity and spin likely helped in 2024. That said, the curveball results were dramatically better against righties in 2024 than in 2025. While his CSW was 2.1% lower than in 2025, his whiff rate was 10.2% higher, and his O-Swing% was 14.7% higher as well. He didn't get as many called strikes with the curve against righties, but he generated WAY more whiffs and chase. Furthermore, he located the pitch much differently against righties in 2024 than in 2025. In 2024, he commanded the pitch more low and away, which explains not just the better chase and whiff rates, but also the better xwOBACON (.263). Below is an example of Lugo getting San Francisco's Tyler Fitzgerald to strike out on a curveball located low and away, right in the heart of the heatmap. S3d2QWpfWGw0TUFRPT1fQUFjREFRRU1BMUFBV1ZFSFhnQUFVd01EQUFNRFdsQUFBbGNCVmdaWEExVlhBMWRU.mp4 A key for Lugo will be locating the pitch more effectively against righties in 2026. He doesn't throw the curve much against righties, only throwing the breaking offering 9.1% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2024. However, while limited, location matters. If he's going to use it under 10% against right-handed hitters again in 2026, he'll need to do a better job of commanding it low and away, like in 2024, not high and in the middle, like in 2025. What to Watch From Lugo's Curve This Spring Velocity and spin will be the key to success for Lugo and his curveball in 2026. Even when he didn't have the best velocity on his curveball in 2024, it was a much sharper offering than the loopier one he threw last season. In the clip compilation below, the 2024 version against Andres Gimenez is a much steeper dropping pitch than the 2025 one against Miami's Kyle Stowers. This is despite the 2024 curveball being 0.5 MPH slower. Getting that spin and vertical break again on the curve for Lugo will be key this spring. Thankfully, it seems like he's making progress on at least some of his breaking offerings in Spring Training. MLB.com Royals writer Anne Rogers noted that Lugo added two MPH to his slider in his first outing, thanks to some grip changes made this offseason. In addition to four whiffs, Lugo produced a 60% zone and 50% chase with the slider. And yet, the slider had a 101 TJ Stuff+ and a 45 grade today. That is slightly worse than the 102 TJ Stuff+ and 55 grade on the curve from today's outing. Yes, he threw the slider five times and the curve twice. However, if he's being that intentional with his grip and mindset on the slider, it's likely he's adopting the same approach with his curve, which is a more crucial pitch to his repertoire. If a similar trend with his curve happens in subsequent outings this spring, whether in Arizona or the World Baseball Classic (he will be pitching for Puerto Rico), then the 36-year-old righty may be on his way to recapturing some of the magic of his 2024 campaign for this upcoming season. View full article

Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-Imagn Images One player who should be coming into Royals Spring Training with a lot of motivation is outfielder Dairon Blanco. After playing in 157 games in 2023 and 2024 combined, he only played in nine games with the Royals last season. Part of that was due to an Achilles injury, which seemed to sap him of his one premium tool (his speed). However, it seemed like manager Matt Quatraro and the Royals preferred Tyler Tolbert in the role that Blanco served in during Quatraro's first two seasons as Royals manager. Tolbert is back with the Royals and seems like a favorite to make the Royals' Opening Day roster, according to Roster Resource projections. Not only was Tolbert a demon on the basepaths last year (21 stolen bases on 23 attempts), but the 2019 13th-round pick can also play the infield, something Blanco cannot do. That said, Royals fans shouldn't sleep on Blanco completely this Spring Training, especially after he has collected two hits in his first two games in Cactus League play (which includes a single and a double). While he doesn't have the defensive versatility of Tolbert, Blanco could be an interesting weapon for the Royals again if he's 100 percent healthy again. What Blanco Brings to the Royals From 2023 to 2024, Blanco served as Kansas City's primary baserunner off the bench. It was for good reason: he was adept on the basepaths, especially when it came to stolen bases. Even though he only had 270 plate appearances from 2023 to 2024, Blanco stole 55 bases for the Royals. Over that two-year period, only Bobby Witt Jr. (80) and Maikel Garcia (60) had more stolen bases than Blanco, according to Fangraphs. Furthermore, when it came to Statcast's baserunning "runner runs" metric, Blanco fared quite well. For those unfamiliar with Statcast's baserunning metrics, below is an outline of what they are and how to read them. From 2023 to 2024, much like the stolen base totals, only Witt and Garcia outperformed Blanco in terms of baserunning run value via Statcast. That is shown in the table below. Blanco created 7.7 total "runner runs" from 2023 to 2024, with 1.5 of those runs coming on extra bases taken on base hits and 6.2 coming from stolen bases. In fact, his 6.2 stolen base runs total was the highest of Royals players over that two-year span. His mark was 1.1 runs better than Garcia's and 2.4 runs higher than Witt's. While Blanco's strengths were primarily on the basepaths, he held his own at the plate as a bench outfielder who would get occasional playing time. In 138 plate appearances in 2023, he posted a .333 wOBA and 102 wRC+ with three home runs and a 1.2 fWAR. In 132 plate appearances in 2024, he regressed a bit, sporting a .306 wOBA, 96 wRC, and 0.5 fWAR. He also saw some regression defensively, as his outfield FRV went from +5 in 2023 to -1 in 2024. That said, when things were clicking, Blanco could get hot at the plate and collect hits and runs in bunches. That was the case on August 17th in 2024, when he had 7 RBI while using a "crayon" bat for Player's Weekend. Blanco's profile wasn't perfect by any means. His xwOBA underperformed his wOBA in 2023 and 2024 with .302 and .284 marks, respectively. Additionally, even during his respectable 2024 season, the Statcast percentiles were questionable, especially in the exit velocity, hard-hit, and LA sweet-spot percentage categories. Below is a look at his TJ Stats Statcast summary profile from that season. Still, when healthy, Blanco was a nice fourth outfielder who may not be able to play regularly, but gave the Royals some nice stretches at the plate from time to time. That ability from Blanco was a nice benefit of his profile, in addition to his strong baserunning. What Happened Last Year With Blanco? Blanco suffered an Achilles injury on March 31st last season and didn't get reinstated until mid-May. When he returned, his sprint speed went from 30.3 FT/S (feet per second) in 2024 to 29.6 FT/S in 2025. Furthermore, Tolbert emerged as a reasonable option off the bench in Blanco's absence. In 57 plate appearances, the former UAB product posted a .305 wOBA, 92 wRC+, and 0.3 fWAR. When it came to baserunning metrics via Statcast, Tolbert ranked among the best Royals when it came to total runner runs. However, the numbers weren't as impressive as Blanco's marks from 2023 to 2024, as seen in the 2025 table below. Last season, Tolbert was third in total runner runs with a 1.0 mark. He was 6.4 runner runs behind Witt and 0.3 runner runs behind Adam Frazier. Surprisingly, Garcia took a step back in the baserunning category last season. He had a -0.1 total runner runs mark thanks to -1.5 stolen base runner runs. As for Blanco, despite the small sample in 2025 (nine games), he still produced 0.2 total runner runs with 0.1 runs in both the extra base and stolen base categories. It's too small a sample to take anything major away from, but it still shows that Blanco's baserunning was still a positive for the Royals last year, despite his injury. Unfortunately, things didn't go great for Blanco in Omaha last season, where he primarily played. In 295 plate appearances, he hit eight home runs, stole 32 bases (on 35 attempts), posted a .334 wOBA, and 92 wRC+. Much like 2024 with the Royals, the Statcast percentiles weren't all that impressive either, as illustrated in his TJ Stats Statcast summary from a season ago. He pulled the ball better in Triple-A, as his Pull% ranked in the 68th percentile with the Storm Chasers (39.9%). Everything else, however? He only ranked in the 50th percentile or higher in two other categories (Z-Swing% and K%). That's a bit disappointing for a player who was primarily on the Major League squad in 2023 and 2024. Tolbert's Statcast percentiles last year with the Royals weren't much more impressive than Blanco's in 2024, especially in the exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit categories. However, the 28-year-old utility player excelled in launch angle, which gives him a bit more upside, especially in Kauffman Stadium's spacious yard. It's hard to justify Blanco over Tolbert for now, especially since Tolbert stayed healthy and thrived in the "Blanco" role last season (Tolbert's stolen bases alone justify his roster spot). However, if Blanco can get his hitting approach back in check and recapture that 2024 sprint speed, then he could make a case for an Opening Day roster spot, especially if Tolbert doesn't look sharp in Cactus League play. What Needs to Happen This Spring for Blanco? It's been a bit of a mixed start for Blanco so far in Cactus League play. While he has two hits, he also made a defensive blunder in his first outing against the Padres, misplaying a ball in the sun, and got thrown out on a stolen base attempt (also against the Padres). Considering that those are two areas that Quatraro wants to clean up in 2026, those kinds of mistakes aren't encouraging, even if it's still early in Spring Training. Also, in Sunday's game against the Brewers, Blanco was hit in the head by a pitch and had to leave the game. His status going forward is uncertain. While it was promising to see Blanco leave under his own power, getting hit in the head can have devastating effects. Royals fans saw how Jonathan India wasn't the same after getting hit in the head by then Cleveland Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase during Opening Day weekend at Kauffman Stadium. Every game counts for Blanco this Spring Training, especially if he wants to be on the roster on Opening Day in Atlanta. For Blanco to make the team over Tolbert, he will have to show that his speed is back and that he can hit the ball harder and with more authority than Tolbert. Blanco saw a dramatic drop in xwOBA midway through the 2024 season after promising gains in 2023 and the start of 2024, which can be seen in the rolling chart data below, via Savant. Should Blanco get back to those more positive trends, it's plausible to think Quatraro could see him as a nice outfielder option off the bench who can fill in when needed. If he can do those two things, he could perhaps justify himself not just as the designated punch runner, but one who could play the corner outfield positions when they face a left-handed starter. The outfield is a bit deeper than it was last year, so the bar is a little bit higher for Blanco in terms of proving he can belong, especially on the offensive end. The Cuban outfielder isn't exactly young at 32 (he will be 33 in late April). However, he still remains a stellar athlete and may be the most explosive player on the 40-man roster beyond Witt. While the odds are against him making the Opening Day roster (especially with this latest hit-by-pitch incident), seeing Blanco return to his 2023 and 2024 form would be a nice (and much-needed) success story for the Royals, not just this spring, but in 2026 overall. View full article

Image courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images The Royals are 1-1 so far in the Cactus League in 2026. After winning their Spring Training opener against the Texas Rangers, Kansas City had a much rougher day on Saturday, losing 10-3 to the Padres. One pitcher that stood out in the Royals' first couple of games was Stephen Kolek, who started Kansas City's Cactus League opener on Friday. In two innings of work, he allowed one run on three hits and one walk while striking out two. He threw a total of 36 pitches in his first Spring Training start of the season. When it came to his advanced metrics, Kolek did a decent job of finding the zone, but struggled when it came to generating chases and whiffs. And yet, his TJ Stuff+ metrics were decent overall, especially considering it was his first Spring Training start and his diverse pitch mix. Below is a look at what his outing looked like via his TJ Stats summary from Friday's outing. Kolek posted a 102 overall TJ Stuff+ with four of his pitches sporting TJ Stuff+ marks over 100 (his sinker, changeup, sweeper, and slider). His sinker and changeup graded 68 and 75, respectively. However, that didn't translate much into his other metrics, as his 16.7% chase rate, 7.1% whiff rate, and .387 xwOBACON were mediocre marks, to put it nicely. Still, stuff is what one wants to see from early Spring Training starts, especially as pitchers get ramped back up after a long offseason. Kolek showing solid TJ Stuff+ marks demonstrates that he's ready to go, and could put up better numbers in Cactus League play once his command irons out over more outings. Nonetheless, one has to wonder where Kolek fits on this Royals pitching staff for 2026. The 28-year-old had a solid debut for Kansas City in 2026, posting a 1.93 ERA, 2.71 FIP, and 0.9 fWAR in 33 IP after coming over from San Diego at the Trade Deadline. That said, he has a lot of competition for a spot on the pitching staff, especially with the rotation that consists of Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Kris Bubic, and Noah Cameron. In addition to that projected five, Kolek also will be competing with Ryan Bergert (who started today), Mason Black, Ben Kudrna, Luinder Avila, and Mitch Spence. Despite all that competition, Kolek has a chance to break with the club at the conclusion of Spring Training. Here are three pitch-related trends to pay attention to with Kolek this spring, as they could determine his chance to make Kansas City's Opening Day roster. Kolek's Four-Seamer vs. Sinker Kolek's primary two pitches are his four-seamer and sinker. He threw the pitches 26% and 24% of the time, respectively, last season. When it came to the metrics on those pitches, this is how they fared, according to his season-long TJ Stats summary. Kolek's sinker rated as a better offering than his four-seamer a season ago. The sinker had a 99 TJ Stuff+ and 58 grade, and produced a 58.5% zone rate, 31.4% chase, and a .308 xwOBACON. Conversely, the four-seamer had only a 92 TJ Stuff+ and 41 grade, and produced a 52.5% zone rate, 17.1% chase rate, and .446 xwOBACON, all worse marks in those categories than the sinker. That said, the four-seamer had a slightly better whiff rate (15.4%) than the sinker (13.1%). Below is the heatmap data of the four-seamer, which also includes split results, in addition to heatmaps against hitters from each side of the plate. Kolek threw the four-seamer more against lefties and tended to locate the pitch up and away. While the four-seamer CSW numbers against lefties (26%) were similar to those against righties (26.7%) and the chase rate was slightly better (17.4% to 16.4% O-Swing%), he also had a lower whiff rate (13.1% to 22.2%) and a higher xwOBACON (.452 to .428). Thus, one has to wonder if that four-seamer usage gap (15.8%) will close a bit in 2026. Now, let's take a look at the TJ Stats heatmap data with the sinker below. The sinker was less of a whiff-inducing pitch than the four-seamer overall. Furthermore, it produced a 26.9% CSW against lefties and a 26.4% mark against righties. Those rates are not all that different from his four-seamer. However, his sinker was a much better chase-inducing offering, producing a 34.1% O-Swing% against righties and 23.9% mark against lefties. Thus, it's not surprising that his xwOBACON was .274 against righties, as hitters had a hard time squaring up against a pitch they chased nearly 35% of the time. His xwOBACON was less stellar against lefties at .422. However, he also threw the sinker 30% less against lefties (11.2% against lefties; 41.2% against righties). It appears that his sinker is his go-to fastball offering against righties, and his four-seamer is his go-to against lefties. However, I wonder whether closing that gap a bit and mixing more sinkers against righties could be beneficial in the long term. Granted, the sinker is a more horizontal offering, which makes it less of a whiff-inducing pitch compared to the more vertical four-seamer. That said, it's intriguing how Kolek locates both pitches and how they can work effectively when commanded effectively, as seen in the clip compilation below. How Kolek's sinker and four-seamer usage fare this spring should be watched closely by Royals fans. If changes in this mix lead to better results (especially in chase and whiff), he could find himself stealing a rotation or bullpen spot by Opening Day. Mixing the Changeup In Effectively Kolek's changeup was one of the most impressive pitches, stuff-wise, in his 2026 Spring Training debut. It sported a 75 grade and 113 TJ Stuff+. However, it had a zone rate of 16.7%, a chase rate of 20%, and a 0% whiff rate. In 2025, the pitch had a 102 TJ Stuff+, a 60 grade, and a .270 xwOBACON. However, the zone (29.1%), chase (31.7%), and whiff (24.7%) rates were all a bit meager. It would also be nicer to see that chase rate up, especially if the zone is going to remain low. Here's the heatmap data on his changeup, and how it was thrown against lefties and righties last season. His changeup was primarily thrown against lefties, as it had an 18.3% usage against lefty hitters compared to a 2.8% usage against righties. Regardless, it was primarily a pitch designated to generate chase, as it was thrown in the chase zone 35.8% of the time and waste zone 13.6% against lefties. While it didn't produce a ton of CSW (19.3%) against lefties, hitters didn't do much against Kolek's offspeed offering either, as evidenced by the .225 xwOBACON. Below is a clip of his changeup located in that chase zone, effectively against left-handed Twins hitter James Outman. Kolek forces Outman to not only chase but also whiff badly. Kolek's changeup is a unique weapon, even if it doesn't generate many called or swinging strikes. It would be nice to see him utilize this offering more with the sinker, especially since they sport similar movement. The changeup's 6.1 MPH difference from the sinker could lead to more whiffs on the offspeed pitch this spring and in 2026. Which Breaking Offering is More Effective? Kolek sports a slider (16.6% usage) and a sweeper (6.8% usage) as his primary breaking pitches. The slider has produced better results, especially in terms of xwOBACON (.378 to sweeper's .461) and chase (32.6% to sweeper's 20.7%). That said, the sweeper had slightly better stuff, with a 103 TJ Stuff+ (the slider had a 102). Here's a look at the slider's heatmap data via TJ Stats. The encouraging characteristic with Kolek's slider is that he generates strong chase against lefties (29.3%) and righties (36.2%). While the pitch is a better whiff-inducing offering against righties (23%), the whiff rate isn't that bad against lefties, as it is only 3.3% lower. When Kolek is able to locate the slider knee high and into lefties, he can produce effective whiffs like this one below against Freddie Freeman. That said, the sweeper is an intriguing pitch, and I think it could be a more worthwhile offering, especially against righties. Below is a look at his sweeper heatmap data via TJ Stats. He only threw the sweeper 9.2% against righties last year. However, it induced a 27.8% O-Swing% and a .265 xwOBACON. That xwOBACON was 93 points better than his slider's xwOBACON against righties. The sweeper is a much "loopier" breaking offering, averaging 82.5 MPH last year, 1.9 MPH slower than his slider. That said, the sweeper shape and velocity may make it a nice change of pace, especially when paired with the sinker and four-seamer. Below is an example of Kolek pulling the strings on Angels catcher (and former Royal) Sebastian Rivero last year on a sweeper. Rivero whiffs because he's sitting on a four-seamer or sinker. I don't think Kolek needs to add a traditional curveball to his pitch mix. He has a slider, a harder cutter, and a sweeper in addition to the sweeper. However, utilizing his sweeper more could help make his breaking offerings more effective in 2026. The sweeper is the kind of pitch that can really get right-handed hitters swinging out of their shoes badly, as Rivero demonstrated in the clip above. Kolek threw the sweeper 13.9% of the time in his first Catcus League start, which is 7.1% more than his sweeper usage in 2025. Thus, pitching coaches Brian Sweeney and Mike McFerran may also believe that Kolek should be throwing his sweeper more in 2026 and are getting that process started with Kolek in Arizona. View full article

On Friday, the Royals acquired free-agent catcher Elias Diaz, signing the 35-year-old to a Minor League deal. He is not expected until next week, according to the announcement on the Royals' social media account. Diaz made the All-Star team with the Rockies in 2023. That season, he hit 14 home runs and collected 72 RBI, but only posted an 82 wRC+ and -0.1 fWAR. Last year, he played 106 games with the Padres and had nine home runs, 29 RBI, a 74 wRC+, and a 0.4 fWAR in 283 plate appearances. In terms of Statcast, Diaz didn't excel in any particular areas, though he is aggressive on pitches in the strike zone, as illustrated in his Statcast summary below. Since debuting with the Pirates in 2015, he has played 830 career games and had 2,800 plate appearances at the Major League level. In that time span, he has 71 home runs and 326 RBI, but a career 78 wRC+ and 0.3 fWAR. At this point in his career, he may be a Major League backup catcher, at best. The Royals seem set at catcher with Salvador Perez and Carter Jensen on the big league roster. Perez showed he is ready for the upcoming season in Kansas City's first Spring Training game of the year, hitting a 441-foot home run on Friday against the Rangers' Nathan Eovaldi. However, the Royals may need some catching depth this spring, as they have been down a couple of catchers. Jorge Alfaro has not been able to report yet due to visa issues. Luke Maile hasn't reported due to personal reasons. Thus, Diaz likely was acquired due to the issues with those two catchers, who both were signed on Minor League deals in the offseason. Diaz will likely start the year in Triple-A Omaha, though he may opt out of his deal if he doesn't make the Opening Day roster. It is unlikely Diaz will have a shot at making the active roster unless an injury happens to Perez or Jensen in Spring Training. View full rumor

Fermin is not listed in this sample. That said, Jensen was a carbon copy in terms of arm strength (84.6 MPH) and exchange (0.63 seconds). Maile wasn't much in those categories, though his arm strength (83.3 MPH) and exchange (0.69 seconds) were a little lower than the Royals' top prospect. When it comes to pure throwing skills, Jensen has the tools to handle MLB base stealers. His 1.87 pop time was 0.06 seconds better than Perez's and even 0.03 points better than Fermin's last year. Granted, the sample for Jensen was much smaller, but the Park Hill product's solid poptime metrics are probably a prime reason why the Royals felt comfortable parting ways with Fermin at last year's Trade Deadline. Salvy and the Royals' Catchers Kept Base Stealers at Bay Having great poptime is one thing. Transitioning those skills into actual outs is another challenge. Thus, it's important to see how many of the Royals' catchers' throws turned into outs last season, and how many runs that saved the Kansas City pitching staff. Caught Stealing Above Average (CSAA) is one of the key metrics used to determine a catcher's effectiveness at preventing stolen bases. Here is the definition of CSAA, some nuances about the metric, and Catcher Stealing runs, which is a product of CSAA. Let's take a look below at how Fermin and Perez ranked among MLB catchers last year in terms of CSAA. Perez and Fermin were even more impressive in CSAA. Salvy ranked 8th in baseball with a +4 CSAA, and Fermin ranked 19th with a +2 CSAA. Furthermore, Perez ranked third in CS rate (40%) and sixth in CSAA per throw (0.14). As for Freddy, he ranked 23rd in CS rate (25%) and 14th in CSAA per throw (0.06). Those are solid marks and explain why Royals catchers were held in so high regard defensively last season. Now, let's take a look at how Maile and Jensen fared in those metrics as well (and how they compared to Fermin and Perez). As expected, Jensen looked good in his caught stealing metrics, especially in CSAA per throw, which was 0.15. That was 0.01 better than Salvy and 0.17 points better than Fermin. Maile, on the other hand, didn't fare well when it came to throwing out runners last year. He not only had a -1 CS run and CSAA, but his -0.24 CAA per throw was the worst mark of the four Royals catchers from last season. Because of the production of these four Royals catchers, Kansas City ranked 11th in total CSAA last season, according to Baseball Savant. They also ranked 4th in CS% (29%) and 6th in CAA per throw (0.05). With the return of Perez and Jensen, Kansas City should be a scary team again in 2026 for opposing baserunners. Final Thoughts On the Royals' Catcher Metrics When it comes to Kansas City catchers' defensive data, the following takeaways could be made. The blocking is a problem. Perez and Jensen fared pretty poorly in this category last year, and they likely are making improvement a priority in 2026, especially in Spring Training. It would help if they had better consistency in the pitching staff, as I do believe the shuffling of so many starting pitchers didn't make things easier for Salvy, Fermin, Maile, and Jensen. The framing was surprising, and the improvement over the past three years under bench coach Paul Hoover is not talked about enough. The Royals were arguably the WORST team in baseball when it came to framing and getting extra strikes. Now? They're middle of the pack. That's tremendous growth and should only help the pitching staff in 2026, though the ABS challenge installation this year could minimize the impact of catcher framing (not as much as some may think). The Royals' throwing as a catching group is elite. That said, while Fermin and Jensen contributed positively in this area, most of the focus should be diverted to Salvy. His throwing metrics should be a big reason why Perez deserves a Hall of Fame case in Cooperstown. It's one thing to be an excellent-hitting catcher. However, to do that and still have elite poptime and caught stealing numbers at 35 years old is incredible and not talked about enough. Heck, just watch this throw out of Cleveland's Jose Ramirez, one of the league's better base stealers, on March 29th this season and tell me that he's not a Hall of Fame catcher. The Royals catchers may not get the defensive love that teams like the Giants, Orioles, Mets, Phillies, or Guardians receive. That said, Kansas City has been much better behind the dish than some experts give them credit for. The encouraging framing and throwing metrics outweigh the brutal blocking numbers. Furthermore, they should be even better in 2026, especially with Salvy showing such solid throwing ability and Jensen perhaps being a younger, maybe slightly better version of Perez at catching runners on the basepaths (we just need to see a bigger sample at the Major League level). View full article

Image courtesy of Denny Medley-Imagn Images Kansas City will begin its 2026 Spring Training campaign on Friday and Saturday against the Texas Rangers, who share the Surprise complex with the Royals. Safe to say, excitement and expectations are up in Arizona, especially with team workouts beginning this week. The Royals have tried to answer some questions this offseason with a slew of acquisitions, both by trade and through free agency. That said, Kansas City didn't get that "big name" player that fans were hoping for this offseason. That probably puts the Royals slightly behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central preseason standings, especially after the Tigers acquired Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander to boost the rotation. Speaking of starting pitchers, Kansas City has accumulated plenty of rotation depth since last year's Trade Deadline. In fact, two starters they acquired from San Diego at the Trade Deadline last season (Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert) are expected to start the Royals' first two Cactus League games this spring, according to MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers. The Royals' pitching depth is nice, especially after how hammered the rotation was in 2025 due to various player injuries. While Alec Marsh is expected to miss significant time again (he's already been placed on the 60-Day IL), there will be 3-4 starters on this Royals 40-man roster that will start the year in Omaha (barring injuries, of course) who could be in the Royals rotation most other years. There are three particular pitchers that Royals fans should pay attention to this spring, especially since the odds are against them when it comes to making the Opening Day starting rotation out of camp. Those pitchers are Bergert, Bailey Falter, and Mason Black, who have all been on the Royals roster for less than a calendar year. However, while they are long shots to start the year in the rotation (or Major League roster in general), they are intriguing arms with some bounce-back upside, especially if they can make some tweaks to certain pitches. I will look at each pitcher's offerings and how they could affect their performance in Arizona this spring. Ryan Bergert and the Breaking Ball Bergert had a bit of an inconsistent rookie debut with both the Padres and Royals last season. In his first 11 appearances (seven starts) with the Padres, he posted a 2.78 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 35.2 IP. However, his FIP was 4.28, his K/BB ratio was 1.89, and his fWAR was only 0.3. The right-hander primarily benefited from a .217 BABIP and 85.6% LOB% during his tenure with the Padres last year. When he moved to Kansas City at the Trade Deadline, many of his underlying metrics improved. His FIP was 3.75, his K/BB ratio was 2.29, and his fWAR was 0.7. That said, the results weren't as impressive with the Royals. His ERA was 4.43, and his WHIP was 1.33. A big difference was that the BABIP rose (.289) and the LOB% dropped significantly (68.2%). The Royals, who shut Bergert down the stretch, are hoping that he can bounce back and iron things out with his command in 2026. While the pitch quality of his repertoire was solid last year, it didn't lead to many whiffs or encouraging xwOBACON numbers, as seen in his TJ Stats summary below. Bergert threw six pitches and produced an overall TJ Stuff+ of 105, which is impressive. He also sported five pitches with grades of 52 or higher and a 51.7% zone rate overall. Unfortunately, his chase rate was 25.1%, his whiff rate was 23.9%, and his xwOBACON was .373. Those are all mediocre marks, to put it nicely, and Bergert should produce better results with that kind of TJ Stuff+ profile. One thing Bergert seems to be working on this spring to help him overcome this issue is adding a new breaking ball. The former 6th-round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft primarily threw a slider (24.8%) and sweeper (18%) as his primary breaking offerings. However, both pitches sported chase rates under 30% and whiff rates under 34%. Those rated as subpar, especially compared to the league average in those categories, for those particular pitchers. The pitches are intriguing, especially when broken down individually. First, let's take a look at the heatmap and dataset for his slider, his most thrown breaking pitch last season. The slider seemed to produce the same kind of results against both lefties and righties. He did locate the pitch more in the middle against lefties and more glove-side against righties. That said, it had similar whiff rates (32.4% against LHP; 34.6% against righties), CSW (28.3% against lefties; 29.4% against righties), and xwOBACON marks (.378 against lefties; .364 against righties). Now, let's take a look at Bergert's sweeper, which he threw 6.8% less than the slider. The sweeper was a peculiar pitch, based on the heatmap and splits. Against lefties, he threw the ball more in the middle of the zone, and he didn't generate a lot of whiffs (20% whiff rate). That said, he had a solid xwOBACON (.257) and strong CSW (35.3%), showing that Bergert could throw strikes and minimize hard contact against the offering. Conversely, he generated a lot of whiffs with the sweeper against righties (40%), as well as O-Swing% (33.3%), with the CSW being okay (29.9%). However, his xwOBACON was much worse (.442). In the clip compilation of those two pitches, the slider was a harder, more vertical offering, while his sweeper was a loopier pitch. I'm wondering if there was too much of a pitch velocity difference between the sinker and the slider, and movement-wise, they profiled too similarly. That would have helped hitters tee off on both pitches, especially if they could pick up the movement early in the release. Bergert's pitch movement profile suggests that using his curveball more (he threw it only 8 times) could give him a breaking offering that keeps hitters from sitting on his sweeper and/or slider. The potential is there for Bergert to be an effective No. 3, 4, or 5 pitcher in the Royals' rotation in 2026 and beyond. However, using the curveball more and pitching it more effectively (though it had a 103 TJ Stuff+ in a limited sample) could help maximize his pitch mix and make his other breaking pitches more potent, especially in terms of whiff and chase rates. Bailey Falter and the Sinker Falter had a rough Royals debut after coming over from Pittsburgh at the Trade Deadline. In four outings (two starts) and 12 IP with Kansas City, he posted an 11.25 ERA and 2.25 WHIP. Safe to say, he has entered Spring Training on shaky ground when it comes to a roster spot, especially with him not having a Minor League option. Then again, Royals GM JJ Picollo seems to have some confidence that Falter for 2026, as they tendered him a $3.6 million deal this offseason. Even though the results weren't great, he does sport good extension on his pitches and some intriguing TJ Stuff+ metrics, as demonstrated below in his TJ Stats summary from last season. The key for Falter is his four-seamer, which is rated as his best offering on a TJ Stuff+ end last season (101). He didn't generate a whole lot of whiff with the four-seamer (15.8%), but he did generate decent zone (55.5%), chase (24.7%), and xwOBACON (.356) on the pitch. It was also interesting to see how his four-seamer fared against lefties and righties last year, based on his TJ Stats heatmap data. The four-seamer seemed to be more effective against lefties, though he threw it nearly 20% less than against righties. He threw it more in the middle of the plate against lefties based on his four-seamer heatmap, which doesn't seem ideal. And yet, against lefties, he had a better CSW (28%; 24.3% against righties), whiff rate (20%; 14.9% against righties), and xwOBACON (.306; .367 against righties). Falter mentioned in an interview on February 17th with Jack Johnson of 810 AM radio that improving his command and effectiveness of his four-seamer is a main focus for him this spring, especially in his work with new assistant pitching coach Mike McFerran. An interesting aspect of Falter's profile is that he also sports a sinker, which he threw only 9.8% of the time last year. And yet, despite its lower usage, he generated a better zone (64.8%) and chase (36.8%) rate with the sinker, as well as a more encouraging xwOBACON (.312). Here's what his heatmap looked like on the sinker last year. Falter primarily threw the sinker against lefties (20.5% usage against LHB compared to 6.2% usage against RHB). However, the pitch produced a solid CSW (32%), whiff rate (15.1%), O-Swing% (48.6%), and xwOBACON (.298) against lefties. He also located it in a good area of the zone, based on his heatmap data: up and inside. Nick Pollack of Pitcher List recently made an intriguing point on Twitter about Cole Ragans, Noah Cameron, and Kris Bubic, and their lack of sinker usage, especially against left-handed pitchers. That got me thinking about Falter and his sinker usage. Granted, Falter throws his sinker 20% of the time against lefties (which Nick advocates for with Ragans, Cameron, and Bubic). However, what if he threw it more against lefties AND righties? Maybe that percentage goes up to 15%, and he throws it 30% of the time against lefties and 10-12% against righties? Could Falter see an improvement in his results in 2026 with the Royals? Honestly, the movement profile looks a lot better on his sinker than on his four-seamer, as shown in the clip compilation below. Falter will need to have a strong Spring Training performance to keep his spot on the active roster (he will be DFA'd if he doesn't make it). Perhaps increasing the sinker usage (and lowering the four-seamer usage) could help strengthen his repertoire and make him more effective overall in 2026. Mason Black and the Four-Seamer The Royals traded for Black from San Francisco, and he may be one of the more intriguing projects this spring for McFerran and lead pitching coach Brian Sweeney. He was once a Top-10 prospect in the Giants' system, but he's posted a 6.47 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 10 MLB outings totaling 40.1 IP over two seasons (2024 and 2025). Black only made one outing for the Giants last year, allowing three earned runs on five hits (including two home runs). However, he struck out five, allowed no walks, and sported some strong extension on his pitches as well as promising zone (55.4%) and chase (33.3%) rates. One pitch that could be key for Black this spring is his four-seamer, which he threw 43.2% of the time in his lone 2025 outing. Black flooded the zone with the pitch (59.4% zone rate), and the xwOBACON (.302) was the best mark of his five pitches. However, the TJ Stuff+ (95), chase (23.1%), and whiff (16.7%) rates were lackluster. Granted, that is only one outing. Thus, let's take a look at his TJ Stats summary from his stint in Triple-A Sacramento, where he primarily pitched in 2025. The four-seamer profiled similarly in terms of TJ Stuff+. Conversely, he actually produced better chase (25.4%) and whiff (30.2%) rates with the pitch against PCL batters last season. Thus, it's possible that Black could've produced more chase and whiffs with more innings pitched at the MLB level. Let's take a look at the heatmap and splits data on Black's four-seamer from Triple-A and see if any trends emerge. Against righties, Black was more effective at generating O-Swing% (23.6%), whiff (33%), and CSW (31.7%). However, his xwOBACON was super high at .449. He was better at generating a lower xwOBACON with his four-seamer against lefties, and the CSW (27.1%) and whiff rate (27.6%) were solid marks too. Thus, it would be interesting to see if he changes up the mix with his four-seamer in order to maximize the results in those categories in 2026, whether it's at Triple-A or the MLB level. The 26-year-old Lehigh product has an impressive-looking fastball movement-wise. When it's located effectively in the zone, it can be a go-to swing-and-miss pitch. That was the case last year when he struck out Lawrence Butler of the Athletics on an immaculately located four-seamer. On a positive note, it seems like the movement has been looking sharp this spring. Johnson reported that Black's run on his fastball looked impressive in a recent Tweet at Royals camp in Surprise. I am not sure if Black is "starter" material with the Royals. Honestly, he seems better suited for the bullpen, where his stuff and repertoire may play better in shorter outings. However, there is a need for starting depth in Omaha, so Black will likely fill in the Storm Chaser rotation at the start of the season, especially since he still carries a Minor League option. That said, Royals fans shouldn't sleep on Black. If the four-seamer clicks, he could be an underrated contributor to this Kansas City pitching staff in 2026. View full article

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images The Kansas City Royals had a goal this offseason of adding depth and improving their talent floor. While they won 82 games last year, the second time they've had a winning season since the 2015 World Series, they also missed out on the postseason after winning 86 games in 2024. Under owner John Sherman and President of Baseball Operations JJ Picollo, the Royals aim to be a frequent playoff contender, like other small-market franchises such as the Cleveland Guardians, Tampa Bay Rays, and Milwaukee Brewers. That said, Kansas City also faces financial limitations as a small-market franchise. While this team has been more prone to spending money under Sherman than in years past, they are not going to acquire big-name free agents like Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman, or Kyle Tucker (which was the case again this year). Furthermore, Picollo also doesn't want to "sell" the farm in trades either. There were plenty of rumors this offseason tying the Royals to players like Boston's Jarren Duran and St. Louis' Brendan Donovan. However, they were unwilling to part with key players (Cole Ragans) or key prospects (Blake Mitchell) to make such deals happen. We will see if Picollo was right to wait, or if they missed an opportunity for a big-name player this offseason. Still, while this offseason wasn't "eye-popping" by any means, the Royals did a lot to improve the roster, whether through trades or free agency. In this post, I will break down all the trades, extensions, MLB free-agent signings, and Minor League signings the Royals made this winter, give grades to each category, and then rate the Royals' offseason as a whole. Trades OF Kameron Misner for a PTBNL/Cash Considerations The Royals were active early this offseason, acquiring outfielder Misner, a Mizzou product, from the Tampa Bay Rays for a PTBNL/Cash Considerations. Misner has been so-so at the Major League level, as he hit .213 with a .618 OPS in 217 plate appearances with the Rays last season. He did have five home runs, but he also struck out 31.8% of the time and didn't have great batted-ball percentiles either. When it comes to his Statcast profile, he didn't show great batted-ball metrics, and he chased a lot with the Rays. Those are two aspects the Royals already have plenty of in Triple-A, which makes the acquisition a little puzzling at the surface level. It's likely that Misner provides some depth in Triple-A Omaha, and he carries a Minor League option, which is valuable to have for a player who likely is more of a "fill-in" at the Major League level (i.e., a guy who comes up when a regular outfielder goes on the IL). He did show some promise in Triple-A Durham last year, so perhaps he can tap into that in his new surroundings in Kansas City. Grade: C+ RHP Mason Black for RHP Logan Martin The Royals acquired Black from the San Francisco Giants for Martin, who pitched in the Arizona Fall League this past autumn. Martin was a nice piece for High-A Quad Cities, as he posted a 3.45 ERA in 22 starts and 91.1 IP for the River Bandits. However, he was a college arm who had a low ceiling. Black was a former Top-10 prospect in the Giants' system who hasn't quite put it all together at the Major League level. He mostly pitched in 2024, but the numbers weren't good in a 36.1 IP sample. He posted a 6.44 ERA, 5.45 FIP, and 9.5% K-BB%. He produced solid extension that season, but his TJ Stuff and Statcast percentiles were pretty underwhelming, as illustrated below. He only made one appearance with the Giants in 2025, as he mostly spent last season in Triple-A Sacramento. He posted a 5.81 ERA and 5.64 FIP in 119.1 IP with the Rivercats. Acquiring a pitcher like Black is a nice gamble for the Royals, especially for a Minor League arm like Martin, who is good, but not great. It will be interesting to see if the Royals perhaps move Black to the bullpen, hoping that his stuff plays up better in shorter innings. At the very least, he provides some nice starting depth in Omaha, which is something they missed a season ago. Grade: B- OF Isaac Collins and RHP Nick Mears for LHP Angel Zerpa The Royals wanted to improve their bullpen and their outfield this offseason. They accomplished that somewhat in one trade, as they acquired Collins and Mears for Zerpa, the Royals' primary left-handed reliever last season. Losing Zerpa is tough, but his ERA rose from 3.86 in 2024 to 4.18 in 2025, and his HR/FB% also rose from 14.3% in 2024 to 15.9% in 2025. The Venezuelan lefty was certainly expendable, though Milwaukee certainly is a nice landing spot for him. In return, the Royals got an on-base machine in Collins, who posted a .368 OBP and 0.61 BB/K ratio in 441 plate appearances. Collins did lose some playing time at the end of the season, but he's the kind of multi-positional outfielder who gives the Royals the plate discipline and versatility that they've desperately needed. Collins doesn't hit the ball all that hard or barrel balls that much, but he doesn't chase, and he pulls the ball effectively, two qualities that the Royals were looking for this offseason. As for Mears, he had an interesting season, especially when compared to 2024. That season, he sported a 5.93 ERA in 57,2 IP. However, his FIP was 3.39, and his K rate was 29.3%. Last year, his ERA was better at 3.49 (in 56.2 IP). Conversely, his FIP was higher at 3.86, and his K rate dropped to 20.8%. Mears had trouble finishing batters off last year in his first full season with the Brewers. That said, he still showed solid TJ Stuff+ metrics and an ability to make batters chase. Mears is a two-pitch pitcher, which may explain why he struggled with K% after succeeding in 2024. Hitters may just have a better scouting report on him now. However, the Royals' pitching coaches have had success helping pitchers add another pitch and maximize their repertoire. Mears could be another success story in 2026. Grade: A LHP Matt Strahm for RHP Jonathan Bowlan Picollo mentioned early in the offseason that they wanted to add a left-handed reliever who could pitch in high-leverage situations. After they traded Zerpa to Milwaukee, the need heightened even more. Thankfully, they found an excellent lefty in Strahm, who was originally drafted by the Royals in the 21st round in the 2012 MLB Draft. Strahm was excellent with the Phillies, posting ERA marks of 3.29, 1.87, and 2.74 from 2023 to 2025, respectively. His FIP marks also remained within the same range, at 3.24, 2.29, and 2.99, respectively. He's also thrown 60+ innings in each of the past three seasons and posted K-BB% marks of 24.8%, 28.7%, and 19.5% over that span. The strikeouts went down a bit, and the walks went up a little in his last season in Philadelphia. He also generated fewer whiffs, and the fastball velocity ranked in the bottom percentiles. Still, his TJ Stats profile shows Strahm to be a reliever who can be relied upon in high-leverage situations. Strahm's four-seamer and slider were above-average offerings last year on a TJ Stuff+ end. His cutter and sinker? Below average, unfortunately. It will be interesting to see whether Brian Sweeney and Mike McFerran encourage any tweaks to improve his pitch quality in Kansas City, though given his batted-ball metrics, that may not be needed. What prevents this deal from being a home run is that the Royals gave up Bowlan, who was starting to become a reliable reliever for Kansas City last season. The former Memphis product posted a 3.86 ERA in 44.1 IP and also sported a 16.1% K-BB%. He also posted excellent Statcast metrics and three above-average pitches, according to TJ Stuff+. The issue with Bowlan? He struggled with finding the strike zone at times, walked more than he should've (12th percentile BB%), and gave up a lot of barrels as well as home runs (15.4%). Thus, with no Minor League options remaining, I can understand why the Royals were willing to part with Bowlan to acquire Strahm. Still, I would've been curious to see what Bowlan could've done had the Royals left him up for a full MLB season instead of constantly shuffling him between Kansas City and Omaha. Grade: B+ RHP Mitch Spence for RHP A.J. Causey The Royals acquired Spence last week in an effort to improve their pitching depth at both the Major and Minor League levels. Spence was a 2024 Rule 5 pick by the Athletics. He was a target of the Royals, who had the pick after the Athletics, but they ended up selecting fellow Yankees pitching prospect Matt Sauer instead (who was returned to New York early in the 2024 season). Spence had a good 2024 with the Athletics, posting a 4.58 ERA, 4.21 FIP, and 1.3 fWAR in 151.1 IP. He wasn't perfect by any means, but he proved to be a durable pitcher who could pitch as a starter or out of the bullpen. Unfortunately, things got tougher for Spence in 2025 in the move to Sacramento, as he posted a 5.10 ERA and FIP in 84.2 IP. It seemed like the new park dimensions of Sutter Park in Sacramento had an effect, as his ERA was much higher at home than on the road. Those splits probably explain why the Royals were willing to take a chance on Spence. Losing Causey was a tough blow, especially since the 2024 5th-round pick posted a 1.72 ERA and 2.28 FIP in 73.1 IP between High-A Quad Cities and Double-A Northwest Arkansas. However, Causey was solely a reliever, and he had an uneven AFL campaign, which probably explains why the Royals were willing to part ways with him in exchange for Spence. Spence will likely start the year as a starter in Omaha, which is needed with Alec Marsh again starting the year on the 60-Day IL after missing all of 2025 due to injury. Grade: B Extensions C Salvador Perez: Two years, $25 million The Royals were never going to part ways with their captain and future Royals Hall of Famer (and maybe Cooperstown Hall of Famer). The extension saves the Royals about $2 million per year, as his option on his last contract was for roughly about $14 million. Perez also defers about $12 million from his current deal, giving the Royals some payroll flexibility. This is a good, though not earth-shattering, deal given the high likelihood of Perez returning. That said, it was nice to see Picollo be proactive to keep the franchise legend happy. Grade: B+ 3B Maikel Garcia: Five years, $57.5 million One had to wonder whether Picollo would ink any of their young core to extensions after solid 2025 campaigns. Garcia was the first domino to fall this offseason, and it was well worth it, especially after Garcia posted a 5.6 fWAR and 121 wRC+ in 666 plate appearances. After a down season, the Royals put their faith in Garcia to be their regular third baseman in 2025, and he ended up making good on that confidence. Not only did Garcia make his first All-Star game, but he also earned his first Gold Glove and was a Silver Slugger finalist. By extending Garcia, Kansas City has guaranteed the left side of its infield until at least 2030. Grade: A 1B Vinnie Pasquantino: Two years, $11.1 million The Royals and Pasquantino didn't reach a deal before the initial arbitration deadline. They were roughly $500,000 apart, so it seemed an agreement was imminent and a hearing wouldn't be necessary. The Royals avoided the hearing not only by reaching an agreement with Pasquantino but also by securing a two-year extension. Honestly, I get why the Royals did it. He's a leader in the clubhouse and holds so much weight with the Royals community, including the fanbase. That said, he's a hitter-only first baseman who doesn't offer any value on defense or the basepaths, and he's already 28. It feels like Kansas City did this deal because they had to, not because they wanted to. Grade: C+ Major League Free Agents OF Lane Thomas: One year, $5.25 million Thomas' stats were bad last year, as he posted a -0.5 fWAR and 48 wRC+ in 142 plate appearances. That said, he wasn't healthy, as he played only 39 games due to various injuries. The 30-year-old outfielder showed that when healthy, he can be a solid presence in the lineup and in the field, defensively. He posted a 99 wRC+ and 1.4 fWAR in 2024 with the Nationals and Guardians, and he had a 109 wRC+ and 2.9 fWAR with the Nationals in 2023. He also hit 28 home runs and stole 20 bases in 2023 and hit 15 home runs and stole 32 bases in 2024. Thus, there's some power and speed potential here if he can get back to full health in Kansas City. When looking at his Statcast percentiles from 2024, Thomas showed a strong ability to avoid chasing out of the zone, which is what the Royals were looking for in targets this offseason (like Collins). For a one-year, $5.25 million deal, the Royals got a nice bounce-back candidate who can play all three outfield positions and give them the pop and speed that they need at the bottom of the batting order. That's a nice weapon to have (if healthy), especially for a manager like Quatraro who likes to play matchups. Grade: B RHP Alex Lange: One year, $900,000 The Royals acquired Lange after he was designated for assignment by the Tigers. They swooped him up on a cheap $900K deal, and they have control of him until 2029 (he isn't arbitration-eligible until 2027). Lange is a local product, as he went to Lee's Summit North High School. It wasn't too long ago that Lange was the closer in Detroit. In 2023, he saved 26 games and posted a 3.68 ERA. However, the combination of injuries and inconsistency has derailed him a bit since then. He has only pitched 19.2 innings since his 26-save season. He mostly spent time in Triple-A last year, and while he generated strikeouts (30.2% K%), he still had a 4.62 ERA (though his 3.88 ERA was much better). In his TJ Stats profile, his zone and walk rates weren't great (second- and fifth-percentile ranks, respectively). However, everything else was solid, both on the batted-ball and swing-and-miss end. Lange is a sleeper who could solidify the middle of the Royals' bullpen and give them a high-velocity arm that can generate strikeouts in that spot. They missed that last year, as it seemed like they didn't have a ton of arms in the bullpen who could get strikeouts when needed. He also has an option, so they don't need to rush him to the Majors this year if he's not fully recovered. Grade: B+ Minor League Free Agents Pitchers Jose Cuas, RHP Helcris Olivarez, LHP Hector Neris, RHP Aaron Sanchez, RHP Eli Morgan, RHP The only deals that stick out are Morgan and Neris, who both have legitimate shots to make the MLB roster. Neris isn't what he was in years past, as he posted a 6.75 ERA in 26.2 IP with the Braves, Angels, and Astros. However, he still can generate whiffs, chase, and strikeouts, as illustrated below in his TJ Stats profile. Morgan is another intriguing non-roster invitee, as Royals fans may be familiar with him from the Guardians. His best season came in 2024 when he posted a 1.93 ERA in 42 IP. He was traded to the Cubs in 2025 and only made seven appearances due to an elbow injury. While the overall numbers with the Cubs weren't good in his small sample, Morgan generated chase (100th percentile O-Swing%), limited hard hits (94th percentile), and didn't give up a lot of walks (77th percentile). If he can get back to form, he may be the kind of middle-innings reliever who could handle medium-to-high leverage situations in a pinch, especially if one of their other relievers is unavailable. Of course, he needs to make the active roster first. Grade: B Position Players Connor Kaiser, INF Kevin Newman, INF Abraham Toro, INF Elih Marrero, C Jorge Alfaro, C Josh Rojas, INF Brandon Drury, INF* (Missed this in initial post; added it at 3:25 p.m. on February 17th). Luke Maile, C (Pending) Maile is dealing with a personal issue, so who knows when (or if) he'll make his way to camp in Surprise. Alfaro is also having visa issues and has not been in camp either. That said, both were longshots anyways to make the MLB Opening Day squad. Kaiser is a local guy, but he seems more like an everyday Triple-A infielder than one who could legitimately contribute to the MLB squad. Thus, that leaves Newman, Toro, Drury, and Rojas as the main candidates to make the Opening Day roster, though their odds seem long with the Royals already having so much depth in the infield. If the Royals want that veteran right-handed infielder, Newman may fit the bill, especially if Nick Loftin struggles (again). Newman can play all over the infield, and while he doesn't hit the ball hard, he doesn't whiff either. If the Royals want one from the left-hand side of the plate, then Rojas may be their answer. That said, his profile is more similar to that of former Royal Nicky Lopez, which is serviceable, but not exactly endearing for a team with postseason aspirations. There isn't a ton of difference in Newman and Rojas' TJ Stats profiles from a year ago, though Rojas chases much less than Newman. To be frank, it's hard to envision either Newman or Rojas or any of the non-roster position player invitees making the Opening Day roster, barring an injury in Spring Training. Grade: C+ Final Grade The Royals made a number of smart moves this offseason to improve. The Collins and Mears move was the best of the bunch this offseason. The Garcia extension was the best internal move they made. Strahm and Lange were solid moves that aren't perfect, but still considerably improve the bullpen without breaking the bank. Thomas has the same value, but on the position player end. Still, it was a bit disappointing that the Royals couldn't swing that "big" deal that could've made them the favorites in the AL Central. The Royals look good across many metrics and projections, with PECOTA actually projecting them to have the best record in the AL Central (which is NOT common for this franchise). Thus, it would've been nice to see the Royals make one big move to help them get over the top (or, at least, theoretically). That said, Picollo is not the kind of GM to sit on his hands during the season. It's entirely plausible that a big move is on the horizon, but it will come at the Trade Deadline instead. Grade: B View full article

No offense man, but that kind of comment is uncalled for in terms of questioning the web site. I get it's a bad mistake and Philip has owned up to it, but saying that our site is written by AI is bush league and I take personal offense to that comment as one of the main writers on the site.

Image courtesy of Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images In part one of a three-part series on Royals catching defense, I looked at blocking metrics and how Kansas City catchers have struggled in this category. In part two, I am going to look at catcher framing, which has been a controversial area for the Royals' catchers over the past five years. Historically, Kansas City has had a bad reputation for catcher framing, especially with Salvador Perez, who's been a frequent target of critics (especially regarding his Hall of Fame candidacy). That said, since Matt Quatraro took over as manager and Paul Hoover became bench coach (primarily working with catchers), the framing metrics have shown some improvement. And yet, it seems like we don't hear about the Royals' progress in this area of catching defense Let's take a look at the Royals' catcher framing data, how they ranked as a team last year and fared individually, and what they have done under Quatraro and Hoover the past three years, compared to the previous three years (2020 to 2022) under manager Mike Matheny. Royals Catchers Were Mediocre Individually Last Year (But Not Horrible) When it comes to framing, Statcast's framing runs are pretty much the gold standard. Framing runs are tied to strike rate and the number of extra "strikes" a catcher is able to acquire due to their framing ability. Below is a definition of catcher framing runs via Baseball Savant. According to Savant, there were 57 catchers in baseball who qualified with enough pitches seen. Here's a ranking of those pitchers by catcher framing runs, with Freddy Fermin and Perez being highlighted, as they were the only Royals catchers who qualified in 2025. Fermin ranked 30th in baseball with -1 catcher framing run mark and a 43.6% Shadow Strike% (shadow strike rate measures how well a catcher garnered strikes in the "shadow" zones, which are the edges of the strike zone). Perez lagged behind Fermin at 49th. The Royals captain had a -7 catcher framing runs mark and 39.7% Shadow Strike%, That said, while both were mediocre (Fermin less so than Perez), they weren't horrible by any means. Eight catchers were worse than Perez, including some big-name ones like Philadelphia's J.T. Realmuto (-8 catcher framing runs), Washington's Keibert Ruiz (-9 catcher framing runs), the Dodgers' Will Smith (-10 catcher framing runs), and the White Sox's Edgar Quero (-13 catcher framing runs). When it comes to how the Royals' catchers fared individually, including Luke Maile and Carter Jensen, who didn't qualify, things looked a little more optimistic. Maile actually proved to be a solid framing catcher, and Jensen's framing proved to be much better than his blocking in his short MLB debut. The veteran Maile led all Royals catchers in framing runs (2) and Shadow Strike% with 46.3%. Jensen had zero framing runs, but his 40.4% Shadow Strike% was better than Perez's, though his sample was incredibly minuscule (551 pitches, which is nearly half of Maile's total). Overall, the Royals ranked 20th in baseball last year with a framing runs mark of -3. That mark was better than the Reds (-7), Twins (-9), Dodgers (-11), Rays (-12), and White Sox (-16). Where the Royals Stood In Terms of Catcher Framing Before Hoover The Royals have long had a rough reputation for being a bad-framing team. That was certainly the case during the Mike Matheny era, which didn't seem to prioritize catcher framing as much as the manager who succeeded him. Here's a look at how the Royals fared as a team compared to the rest of the league in terms of total catcher framing runs from 2020 to 2022 (which is Matheny's managerial tenure). As Royals fans can see in the table above, the Royals were 38 catcher framing runs below average. That was the second-worst mark over that three-year span, better than only the Orioles, who had a -43 framing runs mark. Their 45.2% Shadow Strike% was also the second-worst mark in baseball from 2020 to 2022. Over that time, according to Savant, Perez accumulated -25 catcher framing runs and a 44.8% Shadow Strike%. MJ Melendez was slightly better in terms of framing runs, as he had a -16 mark. However, his 41.8% Shadow Strike% was three percent worse than Perez's. Thus, it makes sense why the Royals eventually moved Melendez off catcher (though his outfield defense wasn't great either). While Perez was still a solid slugging catcher and known for his work with pitchers, his framing from 2020 to 2022 highlighted his and the Royals' struggles in this important area of catching defense. Hoover's Work With Catchers Paying Dividends When the Royals hired Quatraro, they also brought Hoover from Tampa to serve as the Royals' bench coach. One of the big reasons Kansas City hired him was that he was not just an analytical type but also a great communicator who could help catchers improve in an area of catching defense that had lagged for years. Here's what was said about Hoover in an article by Anne Rogers in 2023, early in Spring Training that season. Obviously, framing does not exist in a vacuum. To frame pitches effectively, the Royals not only needed catchers with better form and setup (which Hoover worked on immediately), but also pitchers who could hit those shadow zones. That wasn't the case in the Matheny era, as the Royals' pitching staff was subpar. Even in 2023, the Royals' framing didn't exactly stand out, mostly because the pitching staff remained poor. However, when Kansas City added effective pitchers to the staff (Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha, and Seth Lugo), things changed not only in terms of pitching ERA, but catcher framing runs as well. Below is a breakdown of team rankings by total catcher framing runs from 2023 to 2025. Notice where the Royals catchers fare in this latest set of rankings. The Royals ranked 14th with zero framing runs and a Shadow Strike% of 44.9%. Interestingly enough, their Shadow Strike% is lower than the previous three-year sample, but that's mostly due to Shadow Strike% being down across the league over the past three years compared to 2020 to 2022. Still, Kansas City catchers under Hoover saw a 38-run improvement over the past three years. The only more dramatic one is the Orioles, who had a +2 framing runs mark after a -43 total from 2020 to 2022. The main difference, however, between Kansas City and Baltimore is that the Orioles had Adley Rutschman behind the plate starting in 2022. The former No. 1 overall pick is a two-time All-Star and came in with a reputation as one of the best framing catchers in baseball when he debuted. The Royals have continued to have Perez as their primary catcher. Under Hoover, Perez has produced a -8 catcher framing runs mark from 2023 to 2025, which is 17 runs better than what he produced from 2020 to 2022. He also did this with almost 400 more pitches seen. Now, is Salvy an elite framing catcher? Not at all. However, he has worked hard to become an average to slightly below average one after being such a poor framer for years. With ABS coming to the Major Leagues this year, Perez, with his better framing, should only improve his stock as a Hall of Fame candidate in 2026. That should be especially true this year with Jensen likely giving the Royals captain a much-needed spell behind the plate on regular occasions, much like Fermin did the past two seasons. Framing is not necessarily a "strength" of this Royals catching group (or at least not yet, anyways). That said, under Hoover, they have not let framing be a dragging "negative", a narrative that haunted Perez and the Royals for years. If Jensen can turn into a good framing catcher under Hoover, or perhaps also Blake Mitchell, who's waiting in the wings in the Minors? Then the Royals will continue to develop into an organization that's a far cry from what most baseball fans were used to during the Dayton Moore era (a good thing in the short and long term). View full article

Image courtesy of Jeff Curry-Imagn Images On Friday, the Kansas City Royals announced via social media that they had signed left-handed free-agent pitcher John Means to a two-year Minor League deal. Means is a local Gardner, Kansas, product who was an 11th-round pick by the Baltimore Orioles in the 2014 MLB Draft. The 32-year-old found success early on in his career as he made the All-Star team in 2019 with the Orioles. That season, he posted a 3.60 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 3.2 fWAR in 155 IP. He had another solid season in 2021, posting a 3.62 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 2.5 fWAR in 146.2 IP. Unfortunately, since then, he's struggled to stay healthy. Since 2022, he's only made 10 starts and pitched 52.1 innings due to various injuries. His last MLB innings came in 2024 with the Orioles, as he pitched 20.2 innings and posted a 2.61 ERA. While he demonstrated excellent control (17.5% K-BB%), his stuff was questionable that year, and he gave up a lot of hard contact, as illustrated by his Statcast percentile via TJ Stats. Means did a good job of limiting barrels, as exhibited by his 6.6% barrel rate allowed, which ranked in the 72nd percentile. However, his average exit velocity allowed ranked in the 14th percentile, and his hard-hit rate ranked in the first percentile. Thus, it's not surprising that his 3.31 FIP was much higher than his ERA in 2024. When healthy, the Gardner product offers some intriguing aspects as a pitcher. In addition to limiting walks (career 4.9% walk rate), he has demonstrated an excellent ability to generate whiffs and strikes. He has a career swinging-strike rate of 10.9%, and in 2024, he posted a 29.4% CSW%, ranking in the 77th percentile. While he doesn't generate a ton of groundballs (32.3% career GB%), he seems to be able to limit barrels well enough to avoid serious damage. However, health has been an issue for Means in his career. He had Tommy John surgery in 2024, and the Orioles opted to let him leave in free agency as a result. The Guardians picked him up last year on a one-year deal with a club option. However, he only pitched 26.2 innings with the Triple-A Columbus Clippers and posted a 6.08 ERA in that sample. The stuff, strike, and xwOABCON metrics didn't quite impress either, which explains why the Guardians didn't exercise his club option. Means not only sported a sub-100 TJ Stuff+, but he also had below-average marks in zone rate (45.9%), chase% (28%), whiff% (18.2%), and xwOBACON (.459). At his age, it seems likely that Means may be nearing the end of his career, barring a dramatic turnaround. Furthermore, his Achilles injury this December, which should keep him out all of 2026, only makes that possibility more likely. And yet, the Royals were willing to take a chance on him this offseason, offering him that two-year Minor League deal. Why Did the Royals Pick Up Means? This deal feels similar to the Kyle Wright acquisition with Atlanta back in 2024 (which also resulted in them acquiring reliever Nick Anderson, who was released mid-season). The Royals picked up Wright, knowing he was going to miss all of 2024, with the hope that he could get healthy and be a factor in the rotation and/or bullpen in 2025. Unfortunately, that didn't happen for Wright, as he failed to throw a pitch for the Royals in his two-year tenure. Furthermore, the metrics for the Minors were not only limited (eight starts and 23 IP), but also mediocre (5.48 ERA between Omaha and Northwest Arkansas). The TJ Stats Summary from Omaha wasn't pretty either, as illustrated below. Wright's profile is very similar to Means' in Columbus last year, especially in the TJ Stuff+ and zone rate categories. Thus, why would the Royals do this again to themselves with a once-promising but oft-injured pitcher? First off, there's probably some local allure in Means being a Kansas high school product. The Royals have seemed to favor acquiring local products, not only in terms of talent (Alex Lange and Connor Kaiser), but also coaches (Connor Dawson). While Means is certainly a project, it's easier to invest in it when he's a local guy the fanbase can rally behind. Another reason why Kansas City may be intrigued by Means is that he has shown the batted-ball profile to limit walks and barrels over his career. He has a career barrel rate of 8.1%, and he's allowed a barrel rate over 10% in a single season only once (2021). Having that ability should transition well to Kauffman Stadium, even with the changes to the ballpark's dimensions, starting in 2026. Here's a look at his spray chart from 2024, modified to Kauffman Stadium, and it seems like he would still be successful when it comes to how his batted balls would have fared in Kansas City. Thus, if he's fully recovered, it's possible Means could find a resurgence, especially if the Royals' pitching coaches can help him refine his pitch quality a bit or add a pitch or two, which has been a calling card of this coaching staff. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have found strong career resurgences in Kansas City, as has Michael Lorenzen, who parlayed his two solid seasons there into a new deal in Colorado. Perhaps, if healthy, Means could be another Royals pitching success story, who could give them the production they need in the middle of the rotation in 2027, which could be thin with Kris Bubic likely gone by then (via midseason trade or free agency) and Alec Marsh likely on the shelf for another season. If he's not healthy, he could be another Wright, whose career in Kansas City never gets off the ground. For a two-year Minor League deal, Means is worth taking a chance on. View full article

I have seen that they are listing Loftin as an OF only, rather than an INF/OF. Thus, I do wonder if they believe Loftin is that weak-side platoon that can handle this role (which explains why they also passed on Hays). I worry about Loftin's batted-ball and exit-velocity metrics, but he's shown strong plate discipline throughout his career. If he can see better results in batted-ball production this year, then I think Loftin fits that role. My guess is the Royals are leaning this way, too, though another questionable year from Loftin likely means the end of the road for him.

I get what you're saying, Hokius, but I also think that was last year, and the writing is kind of on the wall that he would have to "earn" at-bats with any team. We will see what the market looks like for him, but I'm not sure any other team could guarantee him much more playing time than the Royals could. If the goal is simply winning, which I think it is, then the Royals could be a nice landing spot. If it's solely playing time, maybe there are other options, but on worse teams. But if the market is so bad for him that the Royals can take a flier on him, I wouldn't mind it.

Image courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images In some interesting news on Wednesday, with most teams beginning their first workouts with pitchers and catchers, the Philadelphia Phillies appear ready to move on from outfielder Nick Castellanos. In fact, Phillies beat writer Matt Gelb reported that they have essentially made it clear to Castellanos that he will not have a locker in Spring Training, thus signaling the end of his tenure in Philadelphia. Castellanos has had a polarizing career with the Phillies, marked by some poignant highs and lows. The former Tigers draft pick signed a five-year, $100 million deal with Philadelphia prior to the 2022 season and hit 82 home runs in his four seasons in the City of Brotherly Love. That said, he had only two seasons with wRC+ marks over 100 with the Phillies (2023 and 2024), and his accumulated fWAR was 0.7 in 602 games. Considering the money the Phillies had poured into him back in 2022, it's safe to say that his tenure with the club has been a major disappointment. Last year seemed to be the culmination of Castellanos' multi-year disappointment in Philadelphia. In 589 plate appearances, he hit 17 home runs, collected 72 RBI, posted a .300 wOBA, and -0.6 fWAR. Not only was his fWAR a career low, but his wOBA was his worst mark in that category since his 11-game rookie sample with the Tigers as a 21-year-old in 2013. To make matters worse, his Statcast profile was meager for a "power" hitter in 2025. As illustrated in his TJ Stats summary, many of his categories, especially exit velocity and barrel rate, were under the 40th percentile. That is a sign that Castellanos is near the end of his career, if not already there. Thus, does Castellanos make sense for any team right now, let alone the Royals? Well, let's look at his overall profile, especially from a batted-ball end, and what he could bring the Royals if GM JJ Picollo decides to take a flier on the former Tigers star. Declining Hard-Hit Rates and Bat Speed a Concern When it comes to Castellanos' value, all of it is pretty tied to the bat at this point in his career. Since 2017, he's been below league average by double digits in Fangraphs' Def every season with the exception of 2020 (and that was due to the 60-game COVID-shortened season). In terms of BsR, which measures baserunning runs, he's been 9.9 runs BELOW average since 2022. Unfortunately, the 33-year-old outfielder just doesn't do anything with the glove or on the bases, and it's unlikely that it's going to get better in 2024, wherever he should play. Castellanos' bat is so key to his value as an MLB player, but unfortunately, he's trending in the wrong direction in some key categories. Two of those categories are hard-hit rate and bat speed. In terms of hard-hit rate, he posted a 36.1% hard-hit rate last season, which ranked in the 16th percentile. That was worse than his average exit velocity (23rd percentile), max exit velocity (33rd percentile), and barrel percentage (36th percentile). While Castellanos did a good job of launching the ball (92nd percentile LA Sweet-Spot%) and swinging at pitches in the zone (99th percentile), his poor performance in other Statcast metrics weighed down his overall production. That is evident in his lackluster average (.250), OPS (.694), ISO (.150), and wRC+ (90) last season. Hard-hit rate sticks out the most, however, because if Castellanos isn't hitting the ball hard, it doesn't matter how well he launches the ball. Well-launched, but soft-hit balls will just become flyouts, especially at Kauffman Stadium, even with the new dimensions (which will still be more pitcher-friendly than Citizens Bank Ballpark, which was the fourth most HR-friendly ballpark in baseball last year, according to Statcast park factors). When looking at his rolling hard-hit chart over his career, he's not only performed poorly in hard-hit rate last year, but also showed that downward trend last year as well. After a brutal finish to 2022, where he hovered around the 30 percent mark in hard-hit rate, he did bounce back in 2023, touching the 50% mark at one point. However, since his 3,500th batted ball, he saw a gradual decline in his hard-hit rate through the 2024 season. There was a slight bump at the start of the 2025 season, but it dropped dramatically by the 4,200th batted ball. What is causing this decline in the hard-hit rate for Castellanos? His decline in bat speed could be the explanation. Though there isn't a ton of data on Statcast bat speed, his rolling chart in this category shows a stark regression from 2024 to 2025. For most of 2023 and 2024, Castellanos was demonstrating above-average bat speed. Unfortunately, in 2025, his bat speed stayed below the league average for most of the season. That bat speed could explain his lackluster hard-hit and squared-up rates (24th percentile in squared-up rate), and thus, underwhelming production in his final season in Philadelphia. To bring it all together, let's take a look at his rolling xwOBA chart via Statcast. The xwOBA metric tends to give a better predictor of future success than wOBA. Much like his hard-hit rate and bat speed, the xwOBA trend isn't good. Not only did he hit some bad lows in 2025, but he showed that "dip" trend in all four of his seasons in Philadelphia. He likely was able to overcome those poor xwOBA marks at times because of the hitter-friendly confines of Citizens Bank. That said, it's likely that those xwOBA valleys would only amplify Castellanos' struggles in Kansas City or another more pitcher-friendly ballpark. Why Would the Royals Consider Castellanos? Castellanos has limited defensive flexibility, and he chases a lot, as his 40.9% O-Swing% ranked in the bottom third percentile. Defensive versatility and plate discipline are two areas that the Royals have valued this offseason, based on their acquisitions (Isaac Collins and Lane Thomas). Thus, it doesn't seem like Castellanos would fit the Royals' philosophy for 2026. On the other hand, the 33-year-old has historically hit lefties well, and his spray-and-pray approach, despite the hard-hit issues, could translate to Kauffman Stadium for one season. In terms of splits, Castellanos has an .815 OPS, .215 ISO, and 127 wRC+ against lefties over his career. Against righties? He has a career .762 OPS, .185 ISO, and 103 wRC+. The Royals' projected right-handed bats off the bench are Thomas, Tyler Tolbert, and Nick Loftin. Thomas is a nice platoon outfielder for now, but he may get more regular playing time, especially if he gets off to a hot start and if Kyle Isbel and his bat stagnate in 2026. Loftin has plate discipline, but little else on the offensive end. Lastly, Tolbert may be more of a pinch-running option and late-inning defensive replacement than a real weapon at the plate. Thus, he could be a nice platoon player who could rotate between RF and DH against left-handed starters without hurting the lineup by playing every day. At this point in his career, any kind of playing time would be appreciated, and he could see more value in being a mentor to a young hitter like Jac Caglianone, whom he could platoon with in 2026. Another positive impact with Castellanos is that the spray chart didn't fare as badly at Kauffman as I initially imagined. Castellanos was able to pull a lot of balls in the air, and that profile fit the K well in the past, as illustrated in Castellanos' spray chart, applied to Kauffman Stadium dimensions. Only one of Castellanos' home runs would've not gone out last year at Kauffman, and he could've had two or three more as well. With the dimensions getting even friendlier at the K in 2026, Castellanos could see even more production, especially on the balls he's able to launch effectively. There's no question that Castellanos isn't quite the player that he used to be, and that was evident down the stretch in 2025 as he saw his playing time wane. That decrease in plate appearances seemed to strain the relationship between Castellanos and his manager, Rob Thomson. That tension could've contributed to his mediocre performance in 2025. My guess is that Castellanos will want a fresh start and be more willing to have a complementary role if it means he gets to be on a winner with playoff chances. The Royals fit that bill for Castellanos, especially with PECOTA projecting Kansas City to have the best record in the AL Central. Thus, the decision to acquire Castellanos, who likely won't cost much, whether it's through a trade or free agency, may rest on Picollo and how he sees this roster. Does Castellanos give the Royals a veteran presence and carry some power upside? Absolutely, and he's been known to mash at Kauffman, especially during his days with Detroit. Conversely, he's limited defensively, and he could cause some logjams in the outfield, especially in right field. Messing up Caglianone, who could be part of the Royals' long-term core along with Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Vinnie Pasquantino, and possibly, Carter Jensen, doesn't seem like the most prudent strategy. A decision on Castellanos will be made in the next day or so. I guess we will see if Picollo thinks Castellanos could be the boost they need, or passes on him for simply being another Hunter Renfroe who fails to see his skills translate in Kansas City (much to their chagrin). View full article

Royals pitchers and catchers began workouts on Wednesday, and many of the Royals' beat writers were sharing video of players back in action in camp in Surprise, Arizona. While pitchers and catchers reporting was the biggest news of the day, another big story was Kris Bubic and his arbitration case getting settled. According to Mark Feisand, Bubic was awarded $6.15 million for the upcoming season. That is $1 million higher than what the Royals filed this offseason. Bubic underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023, which limited him to just 16 IP that season. He ended up returning to the Royals in 2024, but primarily pitched in the bullpen. However, the role suited him, as he posted a 2.67 ERA and 1.95 FIP in 30.1 IP. He was a key setup man for Kansas City down the stretch and in the postseason in 2024. Fully healthy, the Royals returned Bubic to the rotation in 2025, and the early results were solid. The Stanford lefty posted a 2.55 ERA and 2.89 FIP in 20 starts and 116.1 IP. That performance helped him earn his first-ever appearance in the All-Star game. Unfortunately, he only pitched 7.2 innings in the second half before suffering a shoulder injury that shut him down for the remainder of the season. With Bubic working out in Surprise on Wednesday, it seems he's fully recovered and ready to go for 2026. He is entering his last year of team control with the Royals (he will be a free agent after this season), and because of that, his name has been frequently floated in trade talks. As of now, Bubic is still on the Royals' roster, and he should start the season in the rotation, though it will be interesting to see if manager Matt Quatraro manages his innings load to keep him healthier this season. View full rumor