Three Takeaways From The BAT X Projections of Royals Hitters for 2026

 On January 1st, Derek Carty's The BAT X projections went live on Fangraphs, much to the fanfare of fantasy baseball players and fans everywhere. 

For those unfamiliar with The BAT X, Carty defines his projection system in an article on The Athletic from May 19th, 2025. Here is a summary of The BAT X in his words:

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THE BAT X uses a wide range of metrics, including advanced Statcast metrics like barrels and exit velocity, to help inform its projections. It also considers a wide range of contextual factors in addition to player talent indicators, such as ballpark effects, weather conditions, umpire tendencies, defensive alignments and a whole lot more, to provide a comprehensive view of the variables influencing player performance over any given time.

The incorporation of Statcast data is a significant departure from the original BAT projection system, making The BAT X a bit more accurate and comprehensive. While the BAT projections are still live and available on Fangraphs, it is more commonplace for baseball fans and fantasy baseball managers to rely more on Carty's latest projection system. 

I have already broken down hitters, starting pitchers, and relief pitchers in my latest series on Royals projections via Steamer, which typically is one of the first projections to drop in the offseason. Thus, I am not going to do the same with the BAT X, especially since only hitter projections are available on Fangraphs right now.

That said, as with any set of projections, there are some intriguing data points regarding certain players' outlooks for the upcoming season.  So, in this post, I am going to focus on four hitters and my takeaways from their BAT X projections for 2026.

Below is a table of all Royals hitters that the BAT X profiles in its projections, with a sortable data table available at this link. I have organized hitters by Fantasy Points (FPTS), mainly because BAT X is better suited to fantasy baseball purposes given its offensive focus. Even for non-fantasy baseball people, organizing by FPTS gives readers an idea of who the most productive hitters will be for the Royals in 2026, based on BAT X. 

Let's take a look at those four hitters and what Royals fans should be expecting for 2026, based on this latest projection set.

Expectations More Modest For Caglianone

In my Steamer projections post, Jac Caglianone seemed like the most significant rebound candidate for the Royals in 2026. After hitting seven home runs and posting a 46 wRC+ in 232 plate appearances in 2025, Steamer projected Caglianone to hit 16 home runs and post a 110 wRC+ in 418 plate appearances. That is a remarkable improvement and would make him one of the Royals' best hitters.

The BAT X is a little more cautious in their projection of Caglianone. In 514 projected plate appearances, they still project the former Florida product to hit 16 home runs and collect 61 RBI. However, they also project an 85 wRC+, a 25-point difference from his Steamer projection. 

What's interesting about Caglianone's difference in projection is that there isn't much difference in their projected plate discipline metrics. Steamer is projecting a 0.36 BB/K ratio while the BAT X is projecting a 0.32 mark. Obviously, Steamer is higher, but the difference is negligible.

The most significant difference is in BABIP, as BAT X is projecting a BABIP of .272 while Steamer is projecting a .286. That not only affects wRC+, but also batting average (.227 to Steamer's .255) and OPS (.678 to .769). The BAT X does account for launch angle, and Caglianone's LA Sweet-Spot% of 29.7% ranked in the bottom percentile of the league. His radial chart below also shows that, while the rookie outfielder hit the ball hard most of the time, he hit it too often on the ground, resulting in more outs than base hits. 

Thus, the BAT X believes that Caglianone will not make enough gains just yet in launch angle to improve his BABIP and, therefore, overall production. 

However, the Royals and Caglianone have been aware of these MLB struggles with launch angle, and his 14.1-degree average launch angle in Triple-A was 10 degrees higher than his average in the Majors (4.1 degrees). If Caglianone can see more launch on batted balls in 2026, especially early on, he could outperform his BAT X projection and put up something closer to his Steamer outlook. 

Could There Be A Battle Between Isbel and Rave in Center Field?

Two players who also stuck out in interesting ways were outfielders Kyle Isbel and John Rave. Now, Isbel is a strong defensive player, and his +10 FRV ranked third among all Royals fielders last year with 25 or more innings. However, Rave wasn't that much worse, as he put up a +3 FRV in only 432 innings, 600 fewer innings than Isbel. It's possible that Rave could've matched Isbel over a similar sample of innings.

Now, the reason I bring this up is that the difference between Isbel and Rave's BAT X projections is minuscule, with Rave holding a slight advantage, as seen below.

• Isbel: 480 PA, 7 HR, 51 R, 37 RBI, 11 SB, 67 wRC+, 370.1 FPTS
• Rave: 144 PA, 3 HR, 15 R, 12 RBI, 3 SB, 68 wRC+, 121 FPTS

Obviously, Isbel has better counting numbers, but he also has 336 more plate appearances than Rave. Conversely, the 28-year-old outfielder has a slightly higher wRC+. Thus, like the defensive metrics, it's possible that there would be less of a gap between Isbel and Rave offensively with more Rave plate appearances.

When looking at the Statcast metrics of both players, they look pretty similar from a year ago. Here's a glimpse at Isbel's via TJ Stats. 

Now, let's take a look at Rave's. 

Isbel makes more contact, but chases a lot more and doesn't pull the ball as much. On the flip side, Rave whiffs more, but chases less and pulls the ball more. Considering the new Royals' hitting staff's philosophy seems to be to minimize chasing, Rave may fit the Royals' lineup better than Isbel in 2026, solely on offensive profile.

Now, I'm not saying that the Royals should bury Isbel on the bench. Instead, it wouldn't hurt JJ Picollo to explore the trade market to see what kind of value Isbel may have. Players with similar defensive-first profiles like Michael A. Taylor have been widely sought, so it's possible that trading Isbel away could help upgrade their farm system or give them some depth in the corner outfield position, where more power is needed. 

Again, I doubt the Royals do this, especially given Isbel's defensive value and his standing in the clubhouse (he's one of the longest-tenured Royals on the roster). Still, if Rave has a hot Spring Training, a trade involving Isbel may be something to keep an eye on before Opening Day. 

Expect an MVP-Caliber Season From Witt

It was a "down season" for Bobby Witt Jr., which is crazy to say after he posted an 8.0 fWAR season in 2025. However, he posted a 10.5 fWAR season in 2024, and his 130 wRC+ last year was 39 points lower than his mark during his AL MVP-runner-up campaign. Fair or not, Witt's incredible 2024 season will always be the standard for him every season.

The good thing is that on the offensive end, the BAT X expects some bounce-back from Witt. 

In 665 plate appearances, Witt is projected to hit 30 home runs, score 106 runs, collect 96 RBI, steal 37 bases, and post a 135 wRC+. All those marks are better than his Steamer projections, including wRC+ (Steamer projects a 133 mark). The BAT X also projects a .230 ISO, a 25-point increase from his 2025 ISO and 11 points above his Steamer-projected ISO. That kind of power projection is good to see, especially since that seemed to be an area where Witt regressed a season ago.

A reason for the optimistic BAT X projections for Witt is that the Statcast profile still was stellar from the Royals' franchise star last year. Here's a look at his Stacast Summary profile via TJ Stats, and notice the amount of red, especially in the exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit categories. 

The only blemish with Witt's profile is that he chases a reasonable amount (30th percentile O-Swing%), and he could do a better job of pulling the ball (14th percentile). Conversely, he did pull the ball in the air 13.7% of the time, which did put him in the 43rd percentile. It's still not up to superstar standards, but it's a step in the right direction and suggests some improvement could be on the way in 2026. 

For the Royals to make the postseason in 2026, Witt needs to be closer to his 2024 self offensively while still maintaining his 2025 defense (which netted him a second-straight Gold Glove award). If the Pull Air% continues to improve, I think it's not out of the question that the player expected to produce 1,009.2 FPTS by BAT X could be even better in 2026. 

The BAT X is projecting a good baseline for him in this upcoming season. With the proper adjustments to his pitch recognition and ability to pull the ball (which I think Connor Dawson and Marcus Thames can help him out with), he could push for another AL MVP run against the Yankees' Aaron Judge.

That, in turn, could make the Royals not only playoff-bound but possible contenders, especially with a deeper roster in 2026 than in 2024.