Andres Chavez

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images The Kansas City Royals are no longer a rebuilding curiosity. They are a legitimate team on the rise, powered by a deep collection of young talent, a rotation that doesn’t get enough national credit, and a true franchise cornerstone in Bobby Witt Jr. Most positions feel settled or at least promising. Center field, however, remains the loose floorboard in an otherwise sturdy house. Kyle Isbel handled the bulk of the work there in 2025, and if defense were the only requirement, the job would already be filled. His glove is elite. The problem is that his bat has become the offensive equivalent of bringing a butter knife to a sword fight. That reality likely explains why the Royals signed Lane Thomas to a one-year, $5.25 million deal, giving manager Matt Quatraro a legitimate alternative. So who should be the Royals’ center fielder: Isbel or Thomas? The glove that changes games Isbel’s defensive value is not subtle. In 1,032 innings in center field last year, he posted +9 Defensive Runs Saved and +12 Outs Above Average, ranking fourth and third among American League center fielders in those categories. That’s not just good; that’s game-altering. Balls that look destined for the gap die quietly in his glove, and pitchers get outs they probably already chalked up as hits. The offensive side, though, keeps dragging the conversation back to square one. Isbel finished last season with a 79 wRC+, his fourth straight year under 83, and his career mark sits at 78. For context, league average is 100, and Isbel hasn’t sniffed it at any point in his big-league career. What makes it more frustrating is the contrast with his minor league track record. He was a .808 OPS hitter on the farm, but through 496 MLB games, that number has cratered to .653. His Statcast page is flooded with blue, the kind that signals weak contact and limited offensive upside: At almost 29 years old, the data suggests this is simply who he is. If he were even a league-average hitter, the Royals wouldn’t be debating this. He isn’t, but his glove still gives him a way to impact games. The upside gamble Thomas brings a very different profile. When healthy and locked in, he looks like the kind of player who can tilt a lineup. He has already proven he can clear 20 home runs, blasting 28 for Washington in 2023, and he showed his legs are just as dangerous by stealing 32 bases in 2024. That combination of power and speed is something Kansas City simply doesn’t get from Isbel. Last season, though, was a nightmare. A bone bruise in his right wrist was only the beginning. Plantar fasciitis followed, limiting him to just 39 games and a brutal 48 wRC+ with Cleveland. Thomas eventually underwent surgery in late September, but he is expected to be healthy enough to compete for the center field job this spring. Defense is where the gap widens. Thomas doesn’t come close to Isbel with the glove. Even accounting for small samples, the numbers are rough. He posted -1 DRS and -2 OAA last year, and if you go back to the last season where he logged significant innings in the outfield, 2024, the picture gets uglier: -13 DRS and -6 OAA across 1,065 ⅔ innings. Those struggles weren’t limited to center field either; the corners didn’t treat him kindly, either. A matchup-based answer This doesn’t have to be an either-or decision. Isbel hits left-handed and owns an 82 career wRC+ against right-handed pitching, compared to a miserable 64 against lefties. Thomas, on the other hand, offers an 84 wRC+ versus right-handers and a 135 mark when facing southpaws. Against right-handed pitching, the two are essentially the same hitter by wRC+. That makes Isbel the logical choice, because his defense actively helps the pitching staff. When a left-hander is on the mound, Thomas should get the nod. In those situations, he turns center field into a lineup advantage instead of a dead spot, giving the Royals a well-above-average bat at a premium defensive position without sacrificing much. View full article

Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images Spring training is still a dot on the calendar, but that hasn’t stopped optimism from bubbling up in Kansas City. The Royals head into 2026 with something they haven’t always had in recent years: stability. A frontline rotation, a true franchise star, and a wave of young talent ready to help. That’s usually when the fun predictions start. Here are five bold ones that could shape the Royals’ season. Jac Caglianone hits 35 home runs If the Royals are going anywhere in 2026, it likely means at least one young bat takes a real leap forward, and Caglianone is built for that role. The sixth overall pick in the 2024 draft already showed last season that his power translates across levels. He hit 27 home runs split between Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors, with seven coming in MLB action. The surface results in Kansas City weren’t pretty, as he posted a 46 wRC+, but that number hides more than it reveals. His elite 77.4 mph bat speed and a 12 percent barrel rate give him a power foundation most hitters simply don’t possess. The swing is already loud. The adjustment now is about approach. Even a modest improvement in plate discipline and count leverage could turn more balls into souvenirs. Thirty-five homers sounds aggressive, but with that kind of bat speed and track record, it’s less prediction and more projection. Royals finish top five in rotation ERA This one feels bold only because expectations have quietly risen. Kansas City finished seventh in baseball last season with a 3.80 rotation ERA, and there’s a path to climbing higher. Cole Ragans being fully healthy after a rotator cuff strain last year is the swing factor. Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo remain steady, predictable veterans. Kris Bubic is expected to be ready for Spring Training, and Noah Cameron now enters the year with a full season of MLB experience. Bailey Falter provides depth, even with Alec Marsh likely sidelined for most of the year. Pitching depth is fragile, and this prediction depends heavily on health. But if the Royals avoid prolonged absences, this rotation has both the floor and ceiling to sit comfortably inside the top five. Carter Jensen wins AL Rookie of the Year Catchers aren’t supposed to hit like this, especially not this early. Jensen posted a 118 wRC+ in Double-A last year, an impressive number for any catcher, then somehow got better after the promotion. In Triple-A, he ran a 166 wRC+ and finished his minor league stint with 20 home runs across 111 games between the two levels. When he reached the majors, the bat didn’t cool off. In 69 plate appearances, Jensen produced a 159 wRC+, along with three home runs and six doubles. The underlying metrics were just as eye-catching: a .447 xwOBA, a 20.8 percent barrel rate, and a 58.3 percent hard-hit rate. The sample size was small, but it was loud. If Jensen earns regular playing time and sustains even part of that offensive output, he won’t just be the Royals’ catcher of the future — he’ll be a serious Rookie of the Year contender. Royals reach the American League Championship Series This prediction stacks several things together, but none feel unreasonable on their own. If Bobby Witt Jr. stays healthy, the rotation holds together, and players like Caglianone and Jensen provide real impact, Kansas City doesn’t need to dominate the regular season to be dangerous. The first objective is simply getting into the postseason. Once there, October tends to reward teams that can shorten games and lean on starting pitching. If the Royals can win their first playoff series, they’ll look far less like a feel-good story and more like a legitimate problem. David Shields gets a surprise late-season call-up This might be the boldest prediction of the bunch, mostly because of how aggressive the timeline would be. Shields has only reached Single-A so far, but the performance already stands out. Despite inconsistent fastball velocity caused by a hamstring injury early in 2025, the left-hander posted a 2.01 ERA over 71 2/3 innings, striking out 81 batters while walking just 15. His control, command, and feel for breaking balls give him a high floor, and improved health could unlock more velocity as the year progresses. He’s unlikely to be ready as a starter in 2026, but bullpen roles have a way of accelerating promotions. If Shields reaches Double-A by summer and strings together a few strong outings, Kansas City may view him as a late-season bullpen option. Sometimes the most impactful call-ups are the ones no one was tracking in March. View full article

Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images The Kansas City Royals and their fanbase walked into 2025 expecting Jac Caglianone to announce himself loudly. After all, it was hard not to dream when he slashed .322/.389/.593 with a 160 wRC+ across Double-A and Triple-A, launching 15 home runs in just 50 games before his June call-up. That kind of production usually comes with a warning label for opposing pitchers. Instead, Caglianone’s rookie season in the majors felt more like a car stuck in neutral. A lingering hamstring injury wiped out a month of reps, and inconsistency did the rest. His final line, .157/.237/.295 with a 46 wRC+, looked more like a glove-first bench piece than the sixth overall pick of the 2024 draft. That surface-level disappointment, however, hides a much more interesting story. A rare stumble, not a red flag For the first time in his professional career, Caglianone failed outright. That matters, and not in the way critics might think. Some players sprint through the minors without ever tripping, only to hit a wall in the majors and panic. Caglianone hit that wall early, learned how hard it is, and now knows exactly where it stands. Failure can be a brutal teacher, but it’s also an honest one. Caglianone has adjusted at every level before, and there’s little reason to believe this challenge is different. The Royals didn’t draft a finished product; they drafted a hitter with elite tools and the capacity to learn how to use them against the best pitchers in the world. Tools that still scream upside Even during an ugly rookie stat line, the underlying traits never disappeared. Caglianone’s bat speed clocks in at a well-above-average 77.4 mph. His raw power is immense, the kind that doesn’t need perfect contact to leave the yard. Pair that with strong bat-to-ball skills, and you have the outline of a middle-of-the-order force. Patience will be key for Kansas City. Power hitters aren’t microwave meals; they’re slow-cooked. Given time, Caglianone’s left-handed bat can anchor an offense rather than tease it. The unluckiest hitter in baseball Caglianone didn’t just struggle—he ran headfirst into baseball’s cruelest math. Among hitters with at least 150 batted-ball events, no one was more unlucky. His .239 wOBA contrasted sharply with a .321 expected wOBA, creating a -.082 gap that led all of MLB. That’s not just bad luck; that’s cosmic-level frustration. Balls he squared up found gloves. Line drives died at the warning track. The process was often better than the results, and over time, those numbers tend to meet in the middle. The one adjustment that matters most If Caglianone is going to touch his ceiling, the path is clear: plate discipline. Knowing when to swing and when to take is one of baseball’s hardest skills, especially when pitchers are firing 100-mph fastballs that rise like elevator shafts and snapping curves that vanish at the knees. His 38.5 chase rate sat well above the league average of 28.4 percent, a sign that pitchers could bait him off the plate. At the same time, his meatball swing rate was just 64.3 percent, far below the league norm of 76.3 percent. In simple terms, he chased too many bad pitches and didn’t punish enough good ones. That’s not a death sentence. It’s a roadmap. Caglianone is young, talented, and already armed with the experience of getting punched in the mouth by major-league pitching. With even modest improvements in pitch selection, the hitter the Royals envisioned doesn’t just reappear—he announces himself loudly in 2026. View full article

Image courtesy of © Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images The Kansas City Royals rarely shop in the same free-agent aisles as the sport’s biggest spenders. Their blueprint has always leaned more farm-to-table than fine dining, and when the big-league roster takes a step forward, it’s usually because someone arrived from Omaha or Northwest Arkansas rather than via a nine-figure contract. With that in mind, the 2026 Royals won’t be shaped solely by offseason headlines. They’ll be influenced by a group of prospects who are close enough to matter and talented enough to force decisions. Carter Jensen is the obvious name and doesn’t need repeating here. Instead, this group of prospects features four arms and one athletic outfielder who could all play real roles next season. Carson Roccaforte Brings Energy To The Outfield If the Royals are looking for a spark plug type, Carson Roccaforte fits the mold. Ranked 20th in the system by MLB Pipeline, the 23-year-old outfielder put together a breakout 2025, slashing .258/.373/.470 with 18 home runs and 43 stolen bases across High-A and Double-A. There are swing-and-miss concerns, as shown by his 29.4 strikeout rate, but the production outweighs the blemishes. A 138 wRC+ across two levels, including a 141 wRC+ in 212 Double-A plate appearances, paints the picture of a hitter who can impact games in multiple ways. Add in strong defense in center field, and Roccaforte starts to look like the kind of player who forces his way into the conversation sooner than expected. He’s not a finished product, but the power-speed combination, patience at the plate, and defensive value give him multiple paths to usefulness. Strikeouts will come, but so will damage. Ben Kudrna’s Future May Hinge On Role Ben Kudrna’s stat line from 2025 doesn’t jump off the page. A 5.30 ERA over 105 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A isn’t exactly a calling card. Still, the Royals valued him enough to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft by adding him to the 40-man roster, which says more than the ERA ever could. The 22-year-old left-hander doesn’t overpower hitters, but he understands sequencing and pitch usage. In Double-A Arkansas, he logged a 4.21 ERA across 20 appearances, 19 of them starts, backed by a more encouraging 3.53 FIP. Triple-A was a different story, as he was hit hard in limited action, suggesting his development curve still has some bends. A bullpen transition could simplify things and allow his stuff to play up, but even if the Royals keep him stretched out, 2026 feels like a realistic window for him to contribute. Luinder Avila’s Arm Does The Talking Luinder Avila is the only name here with major league innings already logged. His brief 2025 MLB stint totaled 14 innings, and while small samples can mislead, a 1.29 ERA tends to grab attention regardless of context. The Royals’ 14th-ranked prospect spent most of last year in Triple-A, working as a swingman and posting a 5.23 ERA over 53 1/3 innings while striking out 61. It wasn’t a flawless performance, but the raw materials are hard to ignore. His fastball climbs into the high 90s, and the organization has been openly excited about how his stuff translates against big-league hitters. Whether Avila settles into the rotation or becomes a high-leverage reliever is still up in the air. Spring training in 2026 should offer clarity, but either way, his right arm looks ready to factor into the Royals’ plans. Steven Zobac Wins With Precision Steven Zobac doesn’t scream upside in the traditional sense, but his profile makes a lot of sense for a team that values command and reliability. The 25-year-old right-hander was protected from the Rule 5 Draft alongside Kudrna, a notable move given his age and injury-shortened season. Zobac made just 14 starts in 2025, three in the Complex League and 11 in Double-A, where he posted a 7.68 ERA in 36 1/3 innings. Those numbers are rough, but the Royals are betting on the underlying traits rather than the surface results. His walk rates have historically been low, and his pitchability gives him a higher floor than most. His four-seamer typically sits in the low 90s but can reach 96 or 97 on a good day. A mid-80s slider serves as his primary secondary pitch, complemented by a usable changeup. He’s not flashy, but pitchers like Zobac often stick around longer than expected. Hunter Owen’s Size & Versatility Stand Out Hunter Owen looks the part the moment he steps on the mound. At 6-foot-6 and 260 pounds, the left-hander brings a physical presence that hitters can’t ignore. Ranked 27th in the system according to MLB Pipeline, Owen represented the Royals in the 2025 Arizona Fall League and continues to trend upward. His arsenal is deep, featuring a low-90s fastball with carry, a hard slider-cutter hybrid, a slow curveball around 75 mph, and a mid-80s changeup. It’s a mix that keeps hitters guessing and allows him to adjust mid-game. Owen delivered a solid 2025 in Double-A, finishing with a 3.80 ERA and 107 strikeouts over 94 2/3 innings. Kansas City has every reason to keep him in the rotation mix for now, and if all goes well, his debut could come sometime in the middle or late stages of the 2026 season. View full article