5 Bold Predictions For The Royals’ 2026 Season

Spring training is still a dot on the calendar, but that hasn’t stopped optimism from bubbling up in Kansas City. The Royals head into 2026 with something they haven’t always had in recent years: stability. A frontline rotation, a true franchise star, and a wave of young talent ready to help. That’s usually when the fun predictions start.

Here are five bold ones that could shape the Royals’ season.

Jac Caglianone hits 35 home runs

If the Royals are going anywhere in 2026, it likely means at least one young bat takes a real leap forward, and Caglianone is built for that role. The sixth overall pick in the 2024 draft already showed last season that his power translates across levels.

He hit 27 home runs split between Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors, with seven coming in MLB action. The surface results in Kansas City weren’t pretty, as he posted a 46 wRC+, but that number hides more than it reveals. His elite 77.4 mph bat speed and a 12 percent barrel rate give him a power foundation most hitters simply don’t possess.

The swing is already loud. The adjustment now is about approach. Even a modest improvement in plate discipline and count leverage could turn more balls into souvenirs. Thirty-five homers sounds aggressive, but with that kind of bat speed and track record, it’s less prediction and more projection.

Royals finish top five in rotation ERA

This one feels bold only because expectations have quietly risen. Kansas City finished seventh in baseball last season with a 3.80 rotation ERA, and there’s a path to climbing higher.

Cole Ragans being fully healthy after a rotator cuff strain last year is the swing factor. Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo remain steady, predictable veterans. Kris Bubic is expected to be ready for Spring Training, and Noah Cameron now enters the year with a full season of MLB experience. Bailey Falter provides depth, even with Alec Marsh likely sidelined for most of the year.

Pitching depth is fragile, and this prediction depends heavily on health. But if the Royals avoid prolonged absences, this rotation has both the floor and ceiling to sit comfortably inside the top five.

Carter Jensen wins AL Rookie of the Year

Catchers aren’t supposed to hit like this, especially not this early.

Jensen posted a 118 wRC+ in Double-A last year, an impressive number for any catcher, then somehow got better after the promotion. In Triple-A, he ran a 166 wRC+ and finished his minor league stint with 20 home runs across 111 games between the two levels.

When he reached the majors, the bat didn’t cool off. In 69 plate appearances, Jensen produced a 159 wRC+, along with three home runs and six doubles. The underlying metrics were just as eye-catching: a .447 xwOBA, a 20.8 percent barrel rate, and a 58.3 percent hard-hit rate.

The sample size was small, but it was loud. If Jensen earns regular playing time and sustains even part of that offensive output, he won’t just be the Royals’ catcher of the future — he’ll be a serious Rookie of the Year contender.

Royals reach the American League Championship Series

This prediction stacks several things together, but none feel unreasonable on their own.

If Bobby Witt Jr. stays healthy, the rotation holds together, and players like Caglianone and Jensen provide real impact, Kansas City doesn’t need to dominate the regular season to be dangerous. The first objective is simply getting into the postseason.

Once there, October tends to reward teams that can shorten games and lean on starting pitching. If the Royals can win their first playoff series, they’ll look far less like a feel-good story and more like a legitimate problem.

David Shields gets a surprise late-season call-up

This might be the boldest prediction of the bunch, mostly because of how aggressive the timeline would be.

Shields has only reached Single-A so far, but the performance already stands out. Despite inconsistent fastball velocity caused by a hamstring injury early in 2025, the left-hander posted a 2.01 ERA over 71 2/3 innings, striking out 81 batters while walking just 15. His control, command, and feel for breaking balls give him a high floor, and improved health could unlock more velocity as the year progresses.

He’s unlikely to be ready as a starter in 2026, but bullpen roles have a way of accelerating promotions. If Shields reaches Double-A by summer and strings together a few strong outings, Kansas City may view him as a late-season bullpen option. Sometimes the most impactful call-ups are the ones no one was tracking in March.