Kevin O'Brien

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images After a crazy World Series (unfortunately, the Blue Jays couldn't take down the Evil Blue Umpire, i.e., the Los Angeles Dodgers), the MLB offseason has officially begun. While we are still a far way away from the Winter Meetings in December, there is still plenty for baseball fans, especially Royals fans, to pay attention to this offseason. The Royals went 82-80 in 2025, their second winning season since their World Series title in 2015. Even though Kansas City had back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since 2014-2015, they missed the postseason, which was disappointing after they won 86 games and reached the ALDS in 2024. Consistent offense was an issue for the Royals last season. Even with dynamic players like Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Maikel Garcia, they ranked 20th in OPS, 22nd in OBP, and 26th in runs scored and home runs. Thus, to return to the postseason in 2026, the Royals need to upgrade their lineup, whether through trade or free agency. In this post, I will identify five free agents that could provide a boost to the Royals' lineup and could be realistic targets for the club, based on their payroll. I am not including Perez in this group, for even though he has a club option (which could be declined, making him a free agent), he will likely be back, whether on that option or another multi-year contract. To analyze these five free agents, I will use TJ Stats' Statcast summary profiles and projected market value data from Spotrac. Alex Bregman, 3B (Market Value: $27,667, 118) After opting out of his contract, Bregman will be one of the more high-profile free agents this winter. The 31-year-old third baseman had a solid season with the Red Sox in 2025, hitting .273 while collecting 18 home runs and posting an .818 OPS in 493 plate appearances. Based on his Statcast metrics, Bregman's home run power may stagnate at Kauffman Stadium. His barrel rate ranked in the 19th percentile, his Max EV ranked in the 23rd percentile, and his LA Sweet-Spot% ranked in the 29th percentile. However, he would bring a disciplined approach to the Royals lineup, especially a whiff rate that ranked in the 90th percentile and a K% that ranked in the 88th percentile. The longtime Astro may be out of the Royals' price range, especially with Spotrac projecting his market value to be over $27 million. However, Jon Heyman reported on October 15th that the Royals could be a surprise suitor for Bregman, especially if Garcia is willing to move over to second base. For a Bregman deal to happen, the Royals would likely need to non-tender Jonathan India to create space in the infield. Furthermore, the Royals wouldn't be able to spend heavily in other areas this offseason, putting pressure on young hitters like Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen to step up and produce in 2026. Mike Yastrzemski, OF (Market Value: $11,308,059) The good thing about Yastrzemski is that the Royals have the advantage of him playing 50 games with the Royals after he was acquired from San Francisco after the Trade Deadline. In 186 plate appearances with the Royals last season, he slashed .237/.339/.500 with an .839 OPS, and he had nine home runs, 18 RBI, and 30 runs scored. Like Bregman, there could be some power concerns with Yastrzemski over a full season. His barrel rate ranked in the 43rd percentile, and his hard-hit rate ranked in the 51st percentile. However, his max EV ranked in the 19th percentile, and the 90th percentile EV ranked in the 30th percentile. Despite those issues, he, like Bregman, was extremely disciplined at the plate, as evidenced by his 86th percentile O-Swing%, 81st percentile Whiff%, and 1.14 BB/K ratio with the Royals. The Royals could play Yastrzemski at all three outfield positions, and he could handle leadoff duties as well, especially if manager Matt Quatraro prefers to keep Garcia lower in the batting order. The only issue with bringing back Yastrzemski is that he likely would need to platoon with a right-handed bat, which the Royals don't have readily available on their 40-man roster right now. That platoon limitation could make the Royals look elsewhere, especially if Yastrzemski is looking for a multi-year deal in that $11 million AAV range. Tommy Pham, OF (Market Value: $6,728,516) The Royals brought over Pham in 2024 after Pasquantino suffered a thumb injury that forced him to miss the last month of the regular season. The veteran outfielder didn't impress in his 23-game stint with the Royals, as he slashed .228/.250/.337 with two home runs and a .587 OPS in 101 plate appearances. Thus, it's not surprising that the Royals didn't bring him back in free agency in 2025. Pham found a home in Pittsburgh in 2025, and for the first time since 2021, he stayed with a single team for the entire season. The 37-year-old outfielder was productive in Pittsburgh, as he slashed .245/.325/.370, collected 10 home runs, and posted a .695 OPS in 447 plate appearances. Pham also showcased solid plate discipline with a 0.56 BB/K ratio, and his whiff rate and walk rate ranked in the 61st and 77th percentiles, respectively. That approach would certainly be welcomed in the Royals lineup, especially in the 6-8 spots in the batting order. Now, if the Royals do acquire Pham, it likely won't be for a long-term deal, as Pham will be 38 in 2026. Furthermore, he likely would have a platoon role in 2026, splitting with Caglianone in left field or perhaps seeing time in center or left field when the Royals are facing a left-handed starting pitcher. Would Pham be okay with that role, or is he looking for a more regular spot next season? It will be important for the Royals to do their due diligence if they are interested in him, as a disgruntled Pham wouldn't help the clubhouse vibe (which has been a problem in previous stops, though he was fine in Kansas City two seasons ago). Rob Refsnyder, OF (Market Value: $4,250,071) If the Royals do want to bring back Yastrzemski, they may also wish to pursue Refsnyder, who would be the logical platoon pairing. In 138 plate appearances with the Red Sox against left-handed pitchers, the 34-year-old slashed .302/.399/.560 with a .959 OPS. He also hit seven home runs, collected 25 RBI, and posted a 0.59 BB/K ratio against lefties last season. Thus, while limited, he seems to have thrived in a limited platoon role. The primary issue with Refsnyder is that he was pretty mediocre last year against right-handed pitchers. In 71 plate appearances against non-southpaws, he slashed .216/.268/.348 with a .616 OPS. He only hit two home runs, and his BB/K ratio was much worse at 0.23, highlighted by a 31% K% that was 7.8% higher than his K% against lefties. With Refsnyder, the Royals would acquire a right-handed bat with legitimate power. Last season, his barrel rate ranked in the 80th percentile, his average exit velocity ranked in the 88th percentile, and his hard-hit rate ranked in the 94th percentile. That kind of pop is much-needed in a lineup that struggled with the long ball. That said, he wouldn't be an everyday option but rather a platoon player with Yastrzemski or Caglianone in the corner outfield positions. Adam Frazier, UTL (Market Value: $4,053,887) Speaking of vibes, Frazier has seemed to have an impact on the Royals that goes beyond statistics. After being acquired at the All-Star Break, the 33-year-old utility player slashed .283/.320/.402 with a .722 OPS in 197 plate appearances. He hit four home runs, scored 21 runs, and collected 23 RBI, productive for a player who rotated around the field for Kansas City. Frazier played the entire 2024 season with the Royals, and his numbers were more meager. In 104 games and 294 plate appearances, he slashed .202/.282/.294 with a .576 OPS. His fWAR was -0.5 that season, a big reason why the Royals initially didn't bring him back for 2025. And yet, the Royals are 121-106 with Frazier on the roster over the past two seasons. Without him? They are 47-50. Will Frazier posted a .722 OPS over a full season in 2026? Probably not. That said, if he can post a .660-.680 OPS over 300 plate appearances and provide solid defensive value at multiple positions (second and third base and the corner outfield positions)? Well, bringing Frazier back for 2026 may be in the cards for the Royals, especially since it's likely that he won't command more than a one-year deal. View full article

Royals shortstop Daniel Vazquez is having a good campaign in the Arizona Fall League, as talked about by Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline. Here's a snippet from the piece. Vazquez had a solid campaign in Quad Cities last year, posting a 98 wRC+ in 105 games. He also has a Gold Glove-caliber glove and could contribute to the big league club in 2027.

According to MLB.com Royals writer Anne Rogers, on Sunday evening, the Royals declined the mutual option on starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen. Lorenzen was due $12 million in 2026 if the Royals exercised his option. Since they didn't, they will pay him a $1.5 million buyout to allow him to be a free agent. The 33-year-old right-hander came back to Kansas City this season after joining the Royals in 2024 at the Trade Deadline. After posting a 1.57 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 28.2 IP with the Royals in 2024, Lorenzen regressed in his first full season with the Royals. In 27 appearances (26 starts), Lorenzen went 7-11 and posted a 4.64 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. His 4.70 xERA was also higher than his 4.59 mark a season ago with the Rangers and Royals. In addition to Lorenzen becoming a free agent, Hunter Harvey, Mike Yastrzemski, Adam Frazier, and Luke Maile officially became free agents today, per Rogers and MLBPA's official free agent announcements. View full rumor

Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images Last offseason, the Royals made a bold move to improve the top of their lineup. They traded starting pitcher Brady Singer, who was coming off a 3.71 ERA and 2.5 fWAR season in 179.2 IP, to the Cincinnati Reds for second baseman Jonathan India. The 2021 Rookie of the Year was coming off one of his best seasons with the Reds. He hit 15 home runs, stole 13 bases, posted a 109 wRC+, and accumulated 2.9 fWAR in 637 plate appearances. His fWAR was the second-best mark of his career, after his 3.4 fWAR rookie campaign in 2021. With plenty of starting pitching depth (at the time), India made sense, especially considering Royals leadoff hitters posted a 67 wRC+ in 2024, the worst mark in baseball, according to FanGraphs. Unfortunately, the acquisition didn't quite work out as hoped for Kansas City last season. In 136 games and 567 plate appearances, the 28-year-old Royals infielder saw significant regressions in nearly every category. His home run total fell to nine, and he didn't steal a single base. His wRC+ was 89 and his fWAR was -0.3, both career-worsts. Lastly, India was a defensive disaster, as Kansas City initially tried to use him as a utility player who could rotate among second base, third base, and left field. The experiment failed miserably, as he accumulated a -13 OAA, according to Savant. Thus, the Royals are in a dilemma with India this offseason. He will be entering his last year of team control, and he is coming off a season in which he made $4.4 million in AAV under a two-year deal with the Reds he signed before the 2024 season, according to Spotrac. MLB Trade Rumors projects that India is to command around $7.4 million in their last arbitration projections. Will the Royals agree to something in that range with India after the season he just had? Let's take a look at what value India offers, and whether or not Royals GM JJ Picollo will pull the trigger on bringing India back for one final season in Kansas City. Without a doubt, India will be the most high-profile arbitration-eligible player for the Royals this offseason. On one hand, he is coming off an incredibly disappointing and underwhelming 2024 campaign. At the same time, a variety of factors seemed to affect his performance. Anne Rogers, the Royals' MLB.com writer, pointed that out in her latest newsletter, hinting that the Royals may bring him back, given a variety of issues out of his control that plagued him in 2025. When looking at his Statcast metrics from 2025, via TJ Stats, it's evident that India didn't have the same "pop" on batted balls in Kansas City as he did in 2024 with the Reds. At the same time, he still showcased the solid plate discipline that made him such an intriguing trade target at the time. India's barrel, hard-hit rate, and LA Sweet-Spot% all ranked below the 30th percentile. Conversely, he ranked in the 96th percentile in O-Swing%, 78th percentile in whiff rate, 79th percentile in Z-Contact%, and 68th percentile in walk rate. He also pulled the ball well with the Royals, especially in the air, as his Pull Air% ranked in the 63rd percentile. Now, let's take a look at what he did in 2024 with the Reds. The hard-hit rate pretty much was the same, as was the O-Swing%. However, his barrel rate was slightly better in 2024 as was his O-Swing%, whiff%, and Z-Contact%. The most significant differences were his LA Sweet-Spot% and walk percentage, both of which were tremendously different from his initial season in Kansas City. A positive trend India saw in 2025 was that he pulled the ball better than he did in 2024. His Pull Air% was 2.3% better last year than two seasons ago. Thus, it seemed like India was reading pitches effectively but just not generating the right swings to produce consistent base hits (which is likely due to the 6.2% decrease in LA Sweet-Spot%). One has to wonder whether the injuries played a part in those lackluster batted-ball metrics, and his drop-off in xwOBA in his rolling chart via Savant around the 350th plate appearance suggests something ailed him that wasn't present earlier in the season. The encouraging aspect of India's outlook for 2026 is that the Royals no longer need him to be the leadoff hitter. After failing to gain hold of the spot in 2024, Maikel Garcia broke out in 2025 with 16 home runs, a 121 wRC+, and a 5.6 fWAR. The Venezuelan infielder not only was a Gold Glove finalist, but also named a Silver Slugger finalist, showing his improvement from his disappointing 2024 campaign (71 wRC+; 1.2 fWAR). As a leadoff hitter last season (which was primarily against left-handed starting pitchers), the Royals' third baseman hit .341 with a 143 wRC+ and 1.00 BB/K ratio. If the Royals bring back Mike Yastrzemski, he could also slide into the leadoff spot, as he posted a 143 wRC+ and 0.69 BB/K ratio as a leadoff hitter. He definitely helped boost a Royals team that finished 28-25 in the last two months of the season. Yastrzemski will be a free agent, but it sounds like the Royals are highly interested in bringing him back. The outfielder hit nine home runs and posted a 127 wRC+ in 186 plate appearances with Kansas City after being acquired from the San Francisco Giants at the Trade Deadline. The primary dilemma the Royals may face with India's return is his defensive position and their outlook on Michael Massey, who is also coming off an underwhelming, injury-plagued campaign that limited him to only 77 games in 2025. After hitting 14 home runs and posting a 104 wRC+ and 1.5 fWAR in 356 plate appearances in 2024, Massey only hit three home runs and posted a 57 wRC+ and -0.4 fWAR in 277 plate appearances. Like India, the 27-year-old infielder shows a strong propensity for contact, but his power and walk metrics were significantly worse than India's, according to TJ Stats. Massey will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason, and he is expected to command significantly less than India. MLB Trade Rumors projects him to command about $2 million this offseason. Not only is that a bargain compared to India, but he was also much better defensively, despite the injuries. Last season, the Royals employed Massey in second and left field, and he produced a +2 OAA at those two positions combined. Thus, he was 15 outs better than India last year, and over the past two seasons, Massey has accumulated a +5 OAA in second and left field. Therefore, Massey provides the defensive versatility the Royals need and wouldn't get with India. Suppose Massey can rebound offensively and get back to that 14-15 HR profile with a 100+ wRC+ in 2026. In that case, Kansas City may be tempted to move on from India and let Massey handle responsibilities at the keystone regularly and in left field, when needed. That could also free up additional money to use on free agency this offseason, allowing the Royals to spend more on a free-agent outfielder, a priority for 2026. View full article

Interesting idea. If I recall, they may have kicked the tires on Roki last offseason but were nowhere close. Still, it seems like JJ Picollo is a lot more open to the Japanese and Korean markets than Dayton Moore.