What Would It Take For Kansas City to Trade Away Cole Ragans?

Last weekend, rumors spread from the Boston Globe that the Royals may be interested in trading away Cole Ragans to the Red Sox for the right package. Royals GM JJ Picollo didn't mention Ragans specifically in his interview with Alex Speier of the Globe. Still, he did hint that they would be open to trading an established pitcher away for a lineup-changing outfielder. 

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“Our starting pitching, we have some depth there,” Royals president of baseball operations J.J. Picollo tells Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. “A lot of teams are looking for starting pitching, so if we have what they may be interested in, and they have an outfielder that would be of interest, then there’s potentially the opportunity to make a deal.” Speier notes that the Royals had interest in Jarren Duran of the Red Sox prior to the trade deadline.

With big salary amounts owed to Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo, and injury concerns with Kris Bubic, Ragans may be the Royals' best starting pitching trade asset.

The former Rangers first-round pick finished fourth in the AL Cy Young race in 2024 after posting a 3.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 32 starts and 186.1 IP. Last year was a bit of a down year, as he struggled with injuries, posting a 4.67 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 61.2 IP. However, his xERA was 2.67, which ranked in the Top 4% of the league. Furthermore, he posted a 38.1% K rate and a 30.4% K-BB%, and showcased stellar stuff and strike metrics in his TJ Stats summary.

Without a doubt, in terms of stuff, skills, and strikeout ability, Ragans is the most valuable starting pitcher in the Royals' rotation. Additionally, he's cost-controlled, having agreed to a three-year extension last offseason worth $13.25 million total. The deal includes next year and 2027, giving him one year of arbitration eligibility before he hits free agency in 2029, according to Spotrac.

Any team that acquires Ragans would not just gain a Cy Young-caliber pitcher but also one with financial predictability, unlike Bubic, who will be a free agent after next season.

Thus, the Royals should be expecting a significant trade package in return for Ragans. While the Royals need an outfielder, a one-for-one swap for most outfielders would be a massive overpay by Kansas City. For a small-market franchise with regular playoff aspirations, such a deal could be debilitating to the progress Picollo has made since taking over for Dayton Moore after the 2023 season. 

What should the Royals be looking for in a deal? Well, let's look at Ragans' value, the Royals' needs, and a couple of theoretical moves that could make sense for Kansas City.

What's Ragans' Value on the Trade Market?

When looking at Ragans' value, I think two things could be utilized for us as baseball fans: statistics and Baseball Trade Value's "surplus" measurement. 

In terms of statistics, there's no question that Ragans has become the "ace" of the Royals' rotation, not easy to do given a rotation that includes veterans such as Wacha and Lugo. 

Since coming over from Texas in 2023 in the Aroldis Chapman trade, Ragans has made 57 starts and pitched 319.2 innings with the Royals. In that sample, he has a 3.32 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, a 2.79 FIP, an 11.5 K/9, and a 3.60 K/BB ratio. When looking at starting pitchers since July 17th, 2023, Ragans ranks 11th in fWAR (9.2), despite sporting the lowest IP total (314.2 IP) of any starter in the Top-15. 

Thus, Ragans has certainly put up the metrics to become one of the most valued starting pitching assets on the trade market, beyond Detroit's Tarik Skubal, who's a back-to-back AL Cy Young winner. 

When it comes to his value on Baseball Trade Values, it's essential to know what is factored into that value, not just for Ragans, but for all Major League players. According to BTV, it is necessary first to calculate the "field value," which includes the following factors:

• WAR
• Projections
• Inflation
• Years of Control
• Injury Risk
• Roster Risk

The next factor is salary, which is needed to calculate "surplus" value, defined by BTV as follows:

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So, after factoring in all of the above, we base it on a simple formula:

Adjusted field value – salary = surplus value

That surplus value is the default estimate, and it’s commonly referred to simply as “trade value” in the media and among baseball experts.

Thus, based on those factors, where does Ragans rank in comparison to other Royals players?

According to BTV, Ragans sports the second-highest surplus value with a 79.4 mark. The only one higher is Bobby Witt Jr. with a 200.7 mark. Therefore, the 27-year-old lefty is one of the Royals' most prized assets, in addition to their most prized pitcher on the 40-man roster. 

What Are the Royals' Needs?

The Royals need hitting and help in the outfield, plain and simple. Even in the interview with the Globe, Picollo pointed out that they need to upgrade the corner outfield in 2026, and the Royals would be willing to trade away pitching to accomplish that goal this offseason.

However, another area of need for the Royals is to deepen the farm system, especially with the recent graduation of Jac Caglianone and the soon-to-be graduate Carter Jensen. The Royals' system has come a long way under Picollo and new scouting director Brian Bridges. However, for the Royals to be a consistent small-market playoff contender, like Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and Milwaukee, they need to ensure that their farm system isn't left bare at any point. That was a significant reason Moore struggled to keep his job, despite leading the Royals to two pennants and a World Series title during his tenure. 

The Royals should explore deals not just to acquire an MLB-ready outfielder, but some prospect talent as well, in any possible trade, especially considering the surplus value Ragans holds. 

Proposed Trade #1: Cole Ragans to Boston for OF Jarren Duran, SP Kyson Witherspoon, and OF Jhostynxon Garcia   Duran has been a target for the Royals for a while,  as rumors swirled that Kansas City tried to acquire him at the deadline before settling on Mike Yastrzemski (which didn't turn out too badly).

Duran proved to be quite valuable for the Red Sox last season, posting a 3.9 fWAR with a 111 wRC+, 16 home runs, and 24 stolen bases in 696 plate appearances. Over the past three years, Duran has accumulated 13.2 fWAR for the Red Sox, which leads all Red Sox players in that time frame, according to Fangraphs.

That said, according to BTV, Duran's surplus value is 49.5, significantly lower than Ragans'. A one-for-one trade would not be worth it for Kansas City, based on BTV's model. Therefore, the Red Sox would need to throw in some prospect capital to make the trade a fair one for the Royals.

Two prospects that could make sense are Witherspoon and Garcia, a starting pitcher and outfielder, respectively, in the Red Sox farm system.

Witherspoon was the Red Sox's top draft pick in the 2025 MLB Draft out of Oklahoma. In his final season with the Sooners, he posted a 2.65 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 31.8% K rate, and 25.9% K-BB% in 16 starts and 95 IP. Thus, it's no surprise that the Red Sox were willing to give him a $5 million signing bonus at pick No. 15 (which was slightly below slot).

Witherspoon did not pitch professionally after being drafted, but he could be an excellent project for the Royals' pitching development team and move quickly through the Royals' farm system in 2026. His BTV surplus value is 17.7. 

Garcia, known as "The Password" by Red Sox fans due to his hard-to-pronounce first name, is also an intriguing prospect that could give the Royals some depth on the 40-man, which lacks MLB-ready outfielders. The 22-year-old outfielder was mediocre in his initial MLB exposure (82 wRC+ and 55.6% K rate in nine PA), but a glut of outfielders in Boston blocked him. In 489 plate appearances in Triple-A Worcester, he slashed .267/.340/.470 with a 116 wRC+, 21 HR, 75 RBI, and seven stolen bases.

When looking at his TJ Stats summary from Triple-A, Garcia showcased excellent barrel rates and solid exit velocity on batted balls. However, like many Royals hitters in their system, he struggled with plate discipline, whiffs, and strikeouts. 

Adding Duran, Witherspoon, and Garcia together yields a total surplus value of 75, making it a fair trade by BTV's standards, as shown below.

Now, I'm not sure if the Red Sox would give up a recently drafted starting pitcher with considerable upside and a flawed but still talented outfielder who is just 23, along with Duran. That said, if the Royals are willing to trade their second-most valuable asset in their organization, they need to make sure they get a considerably fair return in the process. If they can't, they should continue to hold onto Ragans and look for other options. 

Proposed Trade #2: Ragans to San Diego for OF Fernando Tatis Jr. 

Remember how I talked about how the Royals should look to kill two birds with one stone by getting an established outfielder and prospects in return for Ragans? Well, this trade blows that idea out of the water. 

That said, if the Royals can only get a one-for-one deal with Ragans, they might as well shoot high and acquire Tatis in an agreement that BTV's model accepted.

Surprisingly, Tatis may be more available than some baseball fans would like to think. His BTV surplus value is 83.3, slightly higher than Ragans'. However, he also commands a super long-term deal, one of many that San Diego has on their payroll (Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts being the others). He also only posted an .807 OPS, down from his .833 mark in 2024.

Thus, the Padres may view a possible Ragans-Tatis trade as an avenue to improve their starting pitching (they lack depth after No. 1 starter Nick Pivetta, especially after Dylan Cease signed with the Blue Jays this offseason) while shedding some short-term payroll. 

Still, he posted a 6.1 fWAR in 2025, and his Statcast percentiles showed that Tatis is one of the most naturally talented hitters in the league.

Now, the Royals would like to trade Ragans for Tatis in an instant. However, it may be a tougher deal to stomach for Padres GM AJ Preller, especially since Tatis is the face of the Padres franchise. While Ragans would immediately improve the San Diego rotation, fans would likely revolt in response to losing a player who has been so key to the Padres' turnaround after years of mediocrity and inconsistency. 

Nonetheless, it's an avenue to explore, as a 1-for-1 trade of Ragans for Tatis would at least check a lot of boxes for both teams in terms of on-field production and needs.