Kevin O'Brien

Image courtesy of Dennis Lee-Imagn Images Pitching is definitely an art form where success lies in millimeters. A pitch can have incredible velocity, but if it's too straight or located in the wrong area, it can be hit hard and often. Thus, a pitcher is not just an athlete but an artist who must balance his repertoire and pitch quality to be effective in both the short- and long-term. Since the arrival of manager Matt Quatraro and pitching coach Brian Sweeney, the Royals' pitching staff has experienced a renaissance, especially since 2024. Over the past two years, Kansas City has ranked 4th in pitching ERA (3.74), 6th in FIP (3.88), and 2nd in pitching fWAR (37.5). What used to be a weakness, especially when Cal Eldred was the pitching coach, has become a strength of the team and organization. That said, when looking at Royals pitchers individually, especially from the past year, which pitches stuck out the most? Which pitchers sported the best offerings, both in terms of stuff and results? In this post, I am going to look at the five best pitches thrown by Kansas City pitchers in 2025 and offer a breakdown of why those particular pitches stuck out so much in a positive fashion last year. Let's take a look at those five pitchers and their excellent offerings last year. All metrics and graphics are courtesy of TJ Stats. Steven Cruz, Four-Seam Fastball 50% usage, 98.2 MPH average velocity, 15 iVB, 9.8 HB, 108.4 TJ Stuff+ Cruz emerged as a sneaky middle-innings reliever for the Royals last year, getting some high-leverage work in spot situations. A key to his success was his four-seamer, a high-velocity offering (98.2 MPH) that also sported a 108.4 TJ Stuff+, the best mark of any fastball pitch thrown by a Royals pitcher last year. The four-seamer was an interesting pitch quality-wise, as it sported movement atypical for a four-seam fastball. The iVB on the pitch was a bit supbar at 15, but the 9.8 HB on the pitch made it a more tailing offering. In many ways, the pitch seemed to be a cross between a four-seamer and a sinker, which Cruz primarily threw before last season. When located effectively, Cruz's uncanny four-seamer could generate some impressive whiffs, mainly when located up in the zone. The 26-year-old righty threw the pitch equally against lefties and righties a season ago, with a 49.1% usage against left-handed hitters and a 50.9% usage against righties. The pitch was thrown more up and away against lefties and more up and in the middle against righties. Against lefties, he generated more whiffs, as his 32.3% whiff rate against lefties was nearly 10% higher than his whiff rate against righties. However, he was more effective at throwing strikes with the four-seamer against righties, as illustrated by his 31.5% CSW (compared to a 28.4% CSW against lefties). Command was an issue at times for Cruz, and he didn't generate as many strikeouts as one would think for a reliever with such impressive stuff, as illustrated by a 20.1% K%. That said, when located properly, his four-seamer was a weapon out of the bullpen and should be key for a Royals bullpen that needs velocity in the middle innings. Carlos Estevez, Slider 30.9% usage, 87.3 MPH average velocity, 3.0 iVB, -5.4 HB, 107.3 TJ Stuff+ Estevez is known for his high-velocity four-seamer, but his slider may have been his best weapon overall in 2025. The slider is not much of a horizontal offering, sporting only a -5.4 HB. However, it sported a 107.3 TJ Stuff+, the third-best slider thrown last year in terms of TJ Stuff+. When paired with his four-seamer, it could buckle opposing hitters, get them to whiff, or induce weak contact in key spots. That kind of breaking offering is key for a closer to have in high-leverage situations. The Royals' closer primarily utilized the slider against righties with a 43.3% usage, which was 22.2% higher than his slider usage against lefties. Estevez didn't necessarily worry about command with the pitch, as he threw it in the middle against both righties and lefties. The slider generated more O-Swing% against righties (24.1%) than lefties, though it produced more whiffs (28.3% whiff rate) and strikes (34.4% CSW) against lefties than righties (14.4% whiff rate; 24% CSW). In both clips above, Estevez doesn't generate whiffs, but effectively buckles up Daylen Lile of the Nationals and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays, who are obviously sitting on a fastball. To be able to throw that kind of pitch against hitters early in the count to get ahead was key to Estevez's effectiveness in 2025, helping him lead the MLB in saves. Seth Lugo, Curveball 18.2% usage, 78.9 MPH average velocity, -13.8 iVB, -14.4 HB, 106.3 TJ Stuff+ Lugo is the definition of a pitching "savant". The 36-year-old righty threw 10 different pitches last year, with seven of them having a usage of five percent or above. That made Lugo one of the toughest at-bats in baseball, despite not possessing an elite fastball. The best offering Lugo threw last year was his curveball, which ranked second in usage at 18.2%. The curve was thrown 24.6% of the time against lefties, while only 9.1% of the time against righties. However, he was equally as effective against both sides of the plate with the breaker, as illustrated by his 32.2% CSW against lefties and 33.7% CSW against righties. He also generated an O-Swing% of 33% against lefties and a 30.8% O-Swing% against righties, which showed it could be an effective "chase" pitch for Lugo when he needed it. That was certainly the case in his strikeout of Wyatt Langford of the Rangers, who chased the curve on a 1-2 count. Against lefties, he tended to paint the armside edge with the offering, while against righties, he threw it more up and in the middle of the plate. He tended to throw the slider, slurve, and slow curve more against righties, so the curve against righties was more of a "change of pace" offering, which is why the command was not as precise. Lugo's curve sported a TJ Stuff+ of 106.3, his best TJ Stuff+ offering. He did give up some hard contact with the curve against lefties last year, with a .462 xwOBACON allowed. Improving the command on his primary breaking pitch could help him see some positive regression in 2026 after posting a 4.15 ERA a season ago. Kris Bubic, Four-Seamer 38.1% usage, 92.1 MPH average velocity, 18,2 iVB, 4.3 HB, 104.6 TJ Stuff+ Bubic's four-seamer is a prime example of why iVB and extension can help improve a fastball with mediocre velocity. With a 92.1 MPH average velocity, the lefty's four-seamer should be a widely crushed offering. And yet, Bubic can get 6.9 extension and 18.2 iVB on the pitch. That helps the four-seamer play up and seem faster than it is on the radar gun. His 106.4 TJ Stuff+ with the pitch further illustrates that, and his four-seamer TJ Stuff+ rated better than Estevez's, which had a 95.9 MPH average velocity last year. As a result, Bubic generated a 33.3% whiff rate with the four-seamer against lefties and a 26.4% against righties. He threw the four-seamer more against righties, with a 42.1% usage against a 24.8% usage against lefties. While the four-seamer was a better swing-and-miss offering against lefties, the CSW metrics were pretty similar against hitters on both sides of the plate (35% CSW against lefties; 31.7% CSW against righties). He was more effective at minimizing productive contact against righties with the four-seamer, as his .367 xwOBACON was 119 points lower than his mark against lefties. When it came to command, the Stanford product was pretty consistent against both lefties and righties, locating the pitch up and away in the strike zone. That made the pitch pretty ideal for generating whiffs, as illustrated in the clip compilation below. Bubic is a trade candidate this winter due to his free agency after 2026. While he doesn't have the prestige of other available top arms on the trade market, his sneakily effective four-seamer could make him a top-of-the-rotation arm for the right team (should JJ Picollo trade him away, of course). Cole Ragans, Slider 13.8% usage, 84.7 MPH average velocity, -2.5 iVB, -1.8 HB, 107.1 TJ Stuff+ Much like Estevez's slider, Ragans' breaking offering is an example of nuance. It doesn't sport much vertical or horizontal break. However, it's a nice change of pace, catching hitters off guard when they're sitting on four-seamers or even his changeup, which are both thrown more often (49.5% and 19.2%, respectively). With a TJ Stuff+ of 107.1, it is an offering that is usually slept on by hitters, even though it shouldn't. Ragans threw the slider more against lefties with a 32.1% usage (he only had a 7.6% usage against righties). Still, it was a compelling pitch against both sides of the plate in terms of CSW (34.1% against lefties; 32.8% against righties) and whiff% (45.2% against lefties and 41.2% against righties). He was better at minimizing hard contact with the slider against lefties, as his .291 xwOBACON was 277 points lower than his mark against righties. What was interesting about Ragans' slider was that he located it in the same spot against both lefties and righties: down and in, glove-side. One would think that would make it easy to hone in on for hitters, especially right-handed ones. However, since he threw it less than eight percent of the time, hitters weren't able to do that often, especially since his knuckle curve was his preferred breaking pitch against righties (114 pitches against righties compared to 24 against lefties). When located in Ragans' preferred spot, he could get the swing and miss that he wanted, especially when ahead in the count, as illustrated below. The slider wasn't necessarily a punch-out pitch, but rather an offering that kept hitters from sitting on his four-seamer. With a 10.6 MPH difference between his average four-seamer and average slider, it was common for hitters to swing over Ragans' slider, much like St. Louis' Victor Scott II and Seattle's Victor Robles did in the clip compilation above. View full article

Image courtesy of Denny Medley-Imagn Images In part one of this Royals Steamer Projections series, I examined the hitters and their outlooks for 2026. In part two, I looked at starting two pitchers, including two with optimistic projections and two who could be due for regression. In the final part of this series, I will deep dive into the Steamer projections of five Royals relief pitchers. Much like the starting pitchers piece, I will look at three starting pitchers with positive outlooks for the upcoming season and two who may be due for regression, based on their Steamer projections. As with any projection system, these aren't "scripture" but rather baselines for measuring future performance. Even though just five will be profiled, below is a look at all the 2026 Steamer projections of Royals relievers. A link to the interactive table is available here. Thus, let's take a look at the five Royals relievers who fans should pay attention to closely in 2026. (Statcast summaries courtesy of TJ Stats.) Matt Strahm, LHP In 66 projected IP: 3.66 ERA, 1 SV, 17 HLD, 26.2% K%, 18.7% K-BB%, 1.18 WHIP, 31.2% GB%, 3.66 FIP, 0.7 fWAR The Royals' biggest pitching acquisition of the offseason has been Strahm, a 34-year-old veteran who last pitched with the Phillies. In Philadelphia last year, the 2012 Royals draft pick (21st-round pick) posted a 2.74 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 27.3% K%, and 1.5 fWAR in 66 appearances and 62.1 IP. One of the goals for the Royals this offseason was to find a left-handed pitcher who could thrive in high-leverage situations. Based on his Win Probability data from last year, Strahm fits the bill perfectly. The lefty had 30 shutdowns a season ago, a WPA of 2.30, a 1.50 GM/LI (leverage index when entering a game), and 0.90 clutch factor. For context, his shutdown number led all Phillies pitchers, as did his clutch factor. His WPA was the fourth-highest mark of Philadelphia pitchers, behind starters Christopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler, and Ranger Suarez. And his GM/LI was behind only closer Jhoan Duran and right-handed setup man Orion Kerkering. When it comes to his outlook next year, Steamer projects Strahm to be the Royals' best reliever. His 0.7 fWAR is the best projection of any Royals reliever, and his 26.2% K rate and 18.7% K-BB% are also the best projected marks in those categories. The GB% is a bit low at 31.2%, but Strahm has still found a way to be successful by minimizing hard contact. According to Statcast, his average EV and barrel rate allowed ranked in the 98th and 95th percentiles, respectively, as seen in the TJ Stats summary below. There are some concerns with Strahm: his fastball velocity ranked in the 24th percentile, and he may not have room to increase it given his age and extension (22nd percentile). However, Strahm has proven to be a dependable and effective arm in late-inning situations, which only should strengthen a Royals bullpen that ranked seventh in reliever ERA last season. Lucas Erceg, RHP In 62 projected IP: 3.57 ERA, 2 SV, 13 HLD, 23.9% K%, 15.2% K-BB%, 1.28 WHIP, 46.5% GB%, 3.59 FIP, 0.6 fWAR Expectations were high for Erceg after he closed games down for the Royals down the stretch in 2024 and in the postseason. Many Royals fans were initially surprised that JJ Picollo acquired closer Carlos Estevez last offseason, but it proved to be the right decision. Not just because Estevez was effective, but because Erceg also had a season of regression. In 2024, the former Athletics reliever posted a 2.88 ERA, 1.17 FIP, and 1.4 fWAR in 25 IP with the Royals. He also had 11 saves, including some big ones in the postseason in the AL Wild Card against Baltimore and ALDS against the Yankees. However, in 2025, in 61.1 IP last year, his ERA remained solid at 2.64, but his FIP was 3.49, and his fWAR was 0.9. A big reason for the fWAR and FIP regression was due to the decline in strikeouts. After posting a 32% K rate with the Royals in 2024, his K rate regressed to 19.3% last year. It wasn't exactly a "healthy" season for Erceg, as he dealt with lingering back issues all year (which included an IL stint). Erceg didn't have as sharp a command in Kansas City last year as he did in his Royals debut in 2024. That was evidenced by his 26% CSW, which was a 7% regression from a season ago. He also saw some regression on his fastball quality, as it sported a TJ Stuff+ mark under 100, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary below. Steamer projects a bounce back for Ereceg, especially in his strikeout rate. He is projected to post a 23.9% K rate, a 4.6% improvement from a year ago. He is also projected to post a 15.2% K-BB%, a 3.2% improvement from 2025, while maintaining a solid GB% at 46.5%. Hence, Erceg is expected to post the second-best fWAR of Royals relievers with a 0.6 mark, and the best FIP at 3.59. Estevez may be locked in as the Royals' closer in 2026, but fans shouldn't sleep on Erceg to challenge him for save opportunities in 2026. Carlos Estevez, RHP In 65 projected IP: 4.29 ERA, 31 SV, 2 HLD, 21.7% K%, 13% K-BB%, 1.33 WHIP, 32.7% GB%, 4.30 FIP, 0.2 fWAR Estevez had one of the best seasons for a closer in Royals history, which is saying something considering the history of excellent closers in the Kansas City organization. In 67 appearances and 66 IP, the 33-year-old closer saved 42 games, posted an ERA of 2.45, a FIP of 3.67, and fWAR of 1.1. He made the All-Star team and led the Major Leagues in saves, the first time a Royals closer has done that since Dan Quisenberry. That said, a deeper look into his metrics illustrates that Estevez may have a hard time repeating in 2026 what he did in 2025. In 2025, Estevez posted a K rate of 20.1% and K-BB% of 11.9%. That's 3.5% and 6% decline from his marks in those categories a season ago. Furthermore, his CSW regressed from 28.6% in 2024 to 24.3% in 2025, a 4.3% decline. Lastly, his Statcast percentiles looked pretty questionable overall last year, not indicative of a top flight closer. Steamer seems to agree that Estevez may be due for some regression in 2026. They project his ERA will be 4.29, a 0.84 point increase, and his FIP to be 4.30, a 0.67 point increase. They do project bumps in K rate, with a 1.2% increase, and K-BB%, with a 1.1% increase. However, Steamer projects an expected bump in BABIP from .234 last year to .290 this year, which will contribute to the increases in ERA and FIP. Estevez will still be a good closer in 2026, and his 31 projected saves demosntrate that. That said, he likely won't be the All-Star closer that he was a season ago. Alex Lange, RHP In 52 projected IP: 3.93 ERA, 0 SV, 7 HLD, 24.1% K%, 12.5% K-BB%, 1.41 WHIP, 46.8% GB%, 3.95 FIP, 0.2 fWAR Lange was one of the Royals' earliest moves, and it has gone under the radar after that Strahm acquisition. However, the former Tigers closer may be one of the sneakiest moves Picollo has made this offseason. Injuries and inconsistency have limited the KC Metro product, as he has only pitched in 19.2 IP at the Major League level in the past two seasons. He did primarily pitch in Triple-A Toledo as he recovered from a right lat injury suffered in 2024. In that sample, the metrics weren't impressive at the surface level (4.62 ERA, 3.88 FIP in 25.1 IP), but his TJ Stats Statcast summary from Triple-A was the inverse, as seen below. That's a lot of red in that profile, which is a good thing. Lange ranked in the 100th percentile in Whiff%, 99th percentile in K% and barrel rate, 97th percentile in CSW, and 94th percentile in GB%. If Lange is able to transition those skills to the MLB level in 2026, he could end up being one of the Royals' most valuable relievers by the conclusion of next season. Steamer seems to believe that he can make that transition. In 52 innings, they projected him to put up a 3.93 ERA, a 3.95 FIP, a 24.1% K rate, and 12.5% K-BB%. What's also nice about Lange's profile is that he can generate a lot of groundballs, and Steamer projects that he will produce a 46.8% GB% next year. Only James McArthur (47.1%) and Luinder Avila (47%) are expected to sport better marks in that category. Control is, and has always been an issue with Lange, as evidenced by his 13.5% careeer BB%. Conversely, he generates a lot of chase, with a 33.4% career O-Swing%. The Royals' 30.5% O-Swing% ranked 26th last year, so Lange's profile will be welcomed, even if there may be some walk risk. John Schreiber, RHP In 64 projected IP: 4.03 ERA, 1 SV, 14 HLD, 21.4% K%, 12.6% K-BB%, 1.34 WHIP, 42% GB%, 4.07 FIP, 0.3 fWAR Schreiber has been one of the more utilized Royals relievers in the past two years, especially in high-leverage situations. His 1.51 GM/LI is tied for the fourth-highest mark of Kansas City relievers from 2024-2025. His 53 shutdowns also leads all Royals relievers from the past two seasons, and his 1.99 WPA is tied for the third-best mark over that period as well (behind only Erceg and Estevez). Unfortunately, he started to show some blemishes in his profile in 2025 after a sensational 2024. His ERA went from 3.66 in 2024 to 3.80 in 2025, his FIP rose from 3.03 in 2024 to 4.17 in 2025, and his fWAR went from 1.3 in 2024 to 0.3 in 2025. A big reason for this regression was a sharp increase in HR/FB rate, as his 13% mark was 11% higher than in 2024. Schreiber also saw a decrease in GB%, seeing it go from 51.3% in 2024 to 39% in 2025. HIs TJ Stats summary also showed some percentile concerns, especially in O-Swing% and barrel rate. Steamer seems to project that the regression will continue for Schreiber in 2026. They project his ERA will be 4.03 and his FIP will be 4.07. They also project a 21.4% K%, a two percent decrease from a season ago. With the arrival of Lange, Strahm, and Nick Mears, it's possible that Schreiber will be more of a medium-leverage arm instead of the high-leverage one from the past couple of seasons. And that change in role could make Schreiber a tradeable asset this winter, especially for a team that may be starved for help in the bullpen in 2026. The 31-year-old reliever could net the Royals a nice return, whether it's in terms of hitting help or prospect capital. View full article

Thanks for reading. I also hope that Sherman does the right thing by realizing the franchise's importance to Kansas City, Missouri and keeps it in KCMO. Whether it's downtown or even staying in the Truman Sports Complex, the franchise and history of baseball in KC is tied to KCMO. The Chiefs had a history in Dallas before they moved to KC, so I'm not surprised that they initiated the move to Kansas. The Royals doing the same would be extremely disappointing.

Image courtesy of © Denny Medley-Imagn Images On Monday, December 22nd, the Kansas City Chiefs announced their decision to leave Arrowhead Stadium and the Truman Sports Complex for the state of Kansas, with the hope of building a new stadium in Kansas City, Kansas, in the Legends area. The decision has sparked mixed reactions from Kansas City sports fans. On one hand, many are excited about the possibility of a new, state-of-the-art facility. An indoor stadium could not only help attract a future Super Bowl to the City of Fountains but also attract other events, such as the NCAA Final Four. Considering how big college basketball is in these parts (this is Jayhawk country, after all), a Final Four in Kansas would be enticing to this community. Conversely, many are unhappy with the decision. For those unaware of the history in these parts, the rivalry between Kansas and Missouri goes far beyond sports. "Bleeding Kansas" and John Brown are the most significant events and figures of this "war" in the middle of the country, which has spanned over 150 years. Many Missouri denizens feel betrayed by the Hunt family, which built a legacy of tradition at Arrowhead Stadium that has stood since 1972. This feeling is further exacerbated by the fact that the Hunt Family and their sports group are worth $24.8 billion, and the Chiefs alone are worth $4.8 billion. And yet, it seems the state of Kansas is on the hook for most of the bill in the short and long term. There's no question that sports owners and teams hold the upper hand in stadium decisions. Many cities have seen their beloved franchises ripped away, with the Athletics (MLB), the Raiders (NFL), the Rams (NFL), and the Coyotes (NHL) being the most recent examples. To keep a team from moving to another metro area, cities are forced to do what they can tax-wise to entice teams and owners to stay put. The Chiefs did what was best for them, and it's a difficult pill to swallow. And yet, it's not the move itself that's frustrating, but the Chiefs' approach to their negotiations. I'm hoping the Royals can handle things differently. Photo Credit: The Capital-Journal-USA TODAY NETWORK The History of Baseball in Kansas City Should Be Considered The Royals have essentially floated three sites as possibilities for a move: Washington Square Park in downtown Kansas City, North Kansas City in Clay County, and Leawood in Kansas. The Royals have seemed to position themselves to acquire land necessary to build a stadium in Leawood, around 119th and Nall, on the Aspiria campus. However, the Leawood and Johnson County communities and leaders have been pretty vocal in opposition to a new Royals stadium in the area. North Kansas City seemed like a favorite for a while, especially since it was less congested than downtown. However, news regarding the site across the river has been dead for quite a while, which makes it seem like the Royals have moved on from the possibility. As for downtown, Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas has reignited media talks, seemingly pushing for the Royals after the city and Jackson County lost the Chiefs in very public fashion last week. Even though Sherman and the Royals' ownership group have options, they need to make staying in Kansas City a priority, especially given the city's baseball history. The Chiefs predate the Royals in Kansas City's franchise history. The Chiefs moved from Dallas to Kansas City in 1963, while the Royals weren't established as a franchise until 1969. However, the Athletics were in Kansas City from 1955 to 1967, playing at Municipal Stadium, the legendary Kansas City baseball stadium located on the outskirts of the Jazz District in 18th and Vine. Speaking of Municipal Stadium, the ballpark not only hosted the Athletics, but the Kansas City Blues, a Minor League team, and the Kansas City Monarchs, a powerhouse of the Negro Leagues. The Monarchs were essentially the "Yankees" of the Negro Leagues. They won 12 titles between 1923 and 1957. Legendary players and managers suited up for the Monarchs at Municipal Stadium, including Ernie Banks, Jackie Robinson, Satchel Paige, Cool Papa Bell, and Buck O'Neil. A seat at Kauffman Stadium is marked in honor of O'Neil, and a local community hero is honored in O'Neil's seat each game, where he used to scout before his passing in 2006. Kansas City, Missouri, is rich with baseball history, and especially Negro League baseball history. The Negro League Baseball Museum is one of the city's most famous landmarks, located in the Jazz District on 18th and Vine. A popular pastime for visiting fans, especially those staying downtown, is to stop by the Museum and Arthur Bryant's BBQ or Gates BBQ, two legendary KC BBQ institutions, on the way to Kauffman. A stadium in Kansas would make that very difficult, especially since the museum is in the opposite direction from the proposed location. However, a downtown stadium would allow visiting fans to continue the tradition of visiting the museum, giving them the immersive Kansas City baseball history experience this city offers without having to travel all over the metro to do so. Photo Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images The Royals Belong in Kansas City (And Jackson County) Listen, I understand the Royals are going to do what's best for them financially. If the Royals get the kind of sweetheart deal that the Chiefs get from Kansas or North Kansas City, it's going to be difficult for them to turn down. However, Sherman and his ownership group seem to be cut from a different cloth than Clark Hunt and the Hunt Sports Group. Sherman grew up in Ottawa, Kansas, not Dallas. He's a regular fixture at Royals games and is often seen outside the stadium after games, talking to fans. He talks a lot about his first date with his wife at Kauffman Stadium, and he's helped support GM JJ Picollo in building the Royals into a regular winner, despite being in one of baseball's smallest markets. Deep down, I think Sherman wants to keep the Royals in Kansas City. He wants to keep them in Jackson County and Missouri, much like Ewing Kauffman did before him. Now, Jackson County and the Missouri have to do their part and give them a reasonable deal. That may be easier to do with Frank White out of the picture. The former Jackson County Executive was voted out of office on September 30th. White was a primary opponent of the 2024 sales tax extension that would've guaranteed the Royals and Chiefs in Jackson County. Now, Sherman and the Royals still have work to do. They need to pick a site in Kansas City and stick with it, keeping all factors in play. One reason their plan failed in the 2024 vote was its shoddy organization, which suddenly shifted from the East Village to the Crossroads with little notice. The Royals should either pick the Washington Square Park site, which has been the most recent downtown location suggested, or go back to the drawing board in the East Village, which is closer to the Jazz District and Negro League Baseball Museum. Baseball stadiums can revitalize an area that may seem "undesirable." South of Market in San Francisco was a ghost town before Oracle Park arrived. The same could be said of the area where Petco Park is now in San Diego, as the stadium's presence has helped develop the "Gaslamp District" in downtown San Diego. Kansas City has made strides in developing the city over the past 20 years. The airport is one of the finest in the country, with the right balance of amenities and ease of access. The Streetcar has developed into a legitimate form of public transit. It has now extended to the University of Missouri-Kansas City campus and will extend to the Riverfront in April. CPKC Stadium is the crown jewel of women's stadiums, not just in the country but in the world. Sherman and the Royals have a chance to help Kansas City and Jackson County continue their much-needed growth. There's no reason Kansas City can't be another Denver, a big city with "smaller community" charm and feel. However, all the stadiums are located in the Denver city area. Fans do not need to rent a car to attend a Broncos, Nuggets, or Rockies game. Unfortunately, that is the case with the Chiefs right now. The Chiefs, like other NFL teams like the Cowboys and 49ers, keep the name of their city even though the stadium is not in the town itself. The Royals could break that cycle predominantly utilized by NFL teams (though the Rangers and Braves are guilty of this, too). The Kansas City Royals should still be in Kansas City. If they can't continue at the Truman Sports Complex (which shouldn't be completely ruled out with the Chiefs moving), they need to be downtown, closer to the Negro League Baseball Museum and the old Municipal Stadium, the heart of baseball history in Kansas City. View full article

Image courtesy of Dennis Lee-Imagn Images In part one of our Royals-based Steamer projections series, I looked at Royals hitters and identified five who could be due for impactful seasons in 2026. In this part, the focus will be on the Royals' starting pitchers and their projections. The Royals' starting pitching was a strength of this squad in 2025, and a primary reason why they finished 82-80, their second winning season since their 2015 World Series. Last year, Royals starting pitchers ranked seventh in ERA (3.80) and sixth in fWAR (13.8), according to Fangraphs. Unlike part one, where the focus was more on hitters who could break out, this post will look at two starting pitchers who could have strong seasons, and two who may be due for regression or "questionable" performances next year. For a complete look at Royals starting pitcher Steamer projections, check out the table below; the interactive table is available here (via Datawrapper). Hence, let's take a look at those four Royals starters that fans should be keeping an eye on next year, especially with Kansas City looking to return to the postseason after missing out in 2025. Kris Bubic, LHP In 155 Projected IP: 3.80 ERA, 22.5% K%, 14.4% K-BB%, 1.29 WHIP, 45% GB%, 3.83 FIP, 2.5 fWAR. Bubic's name has been a hot topic in Royals trade talks this offseason. The Royals are committed to keeping Cole Ragans this offseason, and rightfully so, as Steamer projects a 4.2 fWAR for Ragans in 2026. As a result, Bubic may be Kansas City's best trade chip, especially if they want to acquire a high-profile hitter like Boston's Jarren Duran or St. Louis' Brendan Donovan (whom the Royals have been connected to this offseason). Even though he missed most of the second half last year due to injury, Bubic was on his way to having a Cy Young-caliber season. In 20 starts and 116.1 IP, Bubic posted a 2.55 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 24.4% K%, and 3.3 fWAR. That performance helped him earn his first All-Star appearance. Steamer believes that Bubic will do more of the same, even with some expected slight regression. Bubic's projected ERA (3.80), K% (22.5%), K-BB% (14.4%), FIP (3.83), and fWAR (2.5) rank second for Royals starting pitchers in 2026, behind only Ragans. Steamer projects that Bubic will remain a strikeout machine, but still generate enough groundballs to be effective on the mound. His projected 45% GB% ranks second to only Stephen Kolek (51%). Health will be a concern with Bubic in 2026, especially since he missed significant time in 2023 and 2025, and was limited to the bullpen in 2024. Even though he will be a free agent after next season, Bubic could be the key to the Royals' pitching staff and the club's overall success in 2026, especially if he can pitch a full season. Thus, if the Royals can't acquire Duran or Donovan, they may be better off keeping him, given Steamer's optimistic outlook. Michael Wacha, RHP In 170 Projected IP: 4.39 ERA, 18.6% K%, 11.7% K-BB%, 1.32 WHIP, 37.7% GB%, 4.36 FIP, 2.2 fWAR. Wacha signed a three-year extension before the 2025 season, and he lived up to his new contract in year one. In 172.2 IP, the 34-year-old righty posted a 3.86 ERA, 3.66 FIP, and 3.6 fWAR. Even though he lost out on Royals Pitcher of the Year honors to Noah Cameron, Wacha's fWAR led all Royals starting pitchers last season, according to Fangraphs. The veteran succeeded despite not generating many strikeouts or swing-and-misses. His 17.6% K rate was 3.6% lower than in 2024, and his 24.9% CSW was 1.3% lower. Thus, Wacha seemed to benefit from some batted-ball luck in 2025, and his .287 BABIP and 6.6% HR/FB rate seemed to illustrate that. Therefore, it's not surprising that Steamer projects Wacha to see a return to earth in 2026 after posting back-to-back with ERA marks under 4.00. Steamer projects Wacha's ERA and FIP to bump to 4.39 and 4.36 in 2026, respectively. A big reason for that is another K rate below 20% and a K-BB% below 12%, both of which happened last year. His GB% is projected to be 37.7%, a 0.5% increase from a year ago. However, it still lags behind his 38.6% GB% from his first season in Kansas City. Wacha should continue to be productive in the Royals' rotation in 2026. Steamer projects a 2.2 fWAR, which is the third-best mark of Royals starters next year. Steamer also projects 170 IP from Wacha, thus confirming his status as an innings-eater in the Kansas City rotation. That said, after back-to-back seasons of fWAR marks over 3, it seems like 2026 may be his worst season yet with the Royals, unless something dramatic happens in his K% or GB%. Seth Lugo, RHP In 161 Projected IP: 4.38 ERA, 19.8 % K%, 12.3% K-BB%, 1.35 WHIP, 41.3% GB%, 4.29 FIP, 1.9 fWAR. After finishing second in the AL Cy Young race in 2024, Lugo took a bit of a step back in 2025. After posting a 3.00 ERA and 4.6 fWAR in 206.2 IP in his first year in Kansas City, he ended up putting up a 4.15 ERA and 0.5 fWAR in only 145.1 IP last season. Despite this regression, GM JJ Picollo still gave Lugo a contract extension right before the Trade Deadline to keep him in Royals blue until 2027. Many fans questioned Picollo's decision to keep Lugo, especially since he was getting some trade buzz at the Deadline last summer. However, Steamer is optimistic that Lugo can return to a productive form in 2026, even if he won't match the numbers he posted in 2024. Steamer projects that Lugo will post a 4.38 ERA and 4.29 FIP in 161.3 IP. While the ERA is a 23-point increase, his FIP is actually an 80-point decrease. When it comes to predicting performance, FIP is a much better indicator for future success than ERA. Thus, seeing Lugo projected to outperform his FIP from a year ago by so much is a step in the right direction for him in year three in Kansas City. A few factors contribute to Lugo's projected bounce back next year. Steamer projects his K-BB% to be 0.8% higher, his walk rate to be 1.5% lower, and his HR/9 to drop 45 points. Giving up fewer walks and home runs will be key for Lugo in 2026, especially since his 1.67 HR/9 last year was his highest mark since 2020 (when he was with the Mets as a reliever) and his 9.0% walk rate was his highest mark since 2021 (also with the Mets). Seeing those two numbers stabilize a bit should help him be more effective overall in 2026. Even though the ERA and FIP are projected to be over four, his 1.9 fWAR would be a 1.4 fWAR improvement from 2025. Thus, Royals fans should be optimistic that Lugo could be an effective No. 2-3 starter for the Royals next year, especially if he's able to surpass his 161 IP projection. Ryan Bergert, RHP In 68 Projected IP: 4.65 ERA, 19.1 % K%, 10.1% K-BB%, 1.41 WHIP, 38% GB%, 4.61 FIP, 0.3 fWAR. Bergert came over with Kolek in the Freddy Fermin trade at the Trade Deadline. Initially, it looked like Bergert seemed to be a lock in the Royals' rotation in 2026 and beyond. In his first six starts with the Royals, he posted a 2.43 ERA, an 8.37 K/9, and 2.97 BB/9 in 33.1 IP. However, in his last two starts before going on the IL for the remainder of the season due to a shoulder injury, he posted a 13.50 ERA, 9.82 K/9, and 7.36 BB/9 in only 7.1 IP. The former Padres righty probably wasn't as bad as his last two starts. His .536 BABIP allowed and 3.43 FIP illustrate that he was perhaps a bit unlucky in those two games. Conversely, he also wasn't as good as his first six starts in Kansas City either. During that month-long stretch from August 5th to September 3rd, his FIP was 3.83, and his BABIP was .209. Therefore, it's not a surprise that his overall FIP was 3.75 during his 40.2 IP sample with the Royals in 2025. While his FIP outperformed his ERA (4.43) last year, Bergert doesn't project well in Steamer's latest set. Steamer projects Bergert to accumulate only 68 innings, and his numbers look mediocre in that limited sample. His 4.65 ERA and 4.61 FIP are both higher than his numbers in 76.1 innings with the Padres and Royals last year (3.66 ERA and 4.00 FIP). They are also projecting a 3.5% decrease in K% and a 1.7% regression in K-BB%. As a result, Bergert has the profile of a spot starter who may be used more in long relief in 2026 than as a full-time starter. His 25.3% CSW last year doesn't help, and this lackluster skill could be a reason why Steamer projects such a massive decline in strikeout rate next year. Bergert is a talented pitcher with upside when healthy, as he is only 25. That said, Steamer doesn't paint a rosy picture of Bergert in 2026. Thus, Royals fans probably need to keep their expectations of him modest for now. View full article

That's a great point. Collins has that 2B versatility. I think the Royals are building some nice depth that can help them still maintain production even if there are injuries, which was not the case last year.

On Wednesday morning, Red Sox insider Ari Alexander reported that left-handed pitcher Helcris Olivarez agreed to a Minor League deal with the Royals that includes an invitation to Spring Training. Olivarez started his career as a pretty heralded prospect in the Rockies' system with high-velocity stuff. However, he suffered a shoulder injury in 2022 that required surgery. Recovery forced him to miss the remainder of 2022 and all of 2023. Olivarez was later released by the Rockies and was picked up by the Red Sox before the 2024 season. He spent half a season with the Red Sox before being let go in July of that season. The Giants promptly picked him up after his release and primarily pitched the remainder of the season in Double-A Richmond. He spent all of last season in the San Francisco organization, pitching in Richmond and Triple-A Sacramento. With the Rivercats last season, he posted a 3.65 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 37 IP (34 appearances). He posted impressive strikeout numbers (26.3% K rate) and a solid CSW (30.2%). Unfortunately, he struggled with control, as illustrated by his 24.6% walk rate and 1.7% K-BB%. As a result, his FIP was 5.84, 2.19 points higher than his ERA. The 25-year-old lefty possesses solid stuff, though he doesn't quite have the 100-MPH stuff that he once had as a Rockies prospect. According to TJ Stats, he posted strong TJ Stuff+ metrics and encouraging whiff rates, as shown below. Olivarez's overall TJ Stuff+ was 101. He also sported two pitches with 64 grades: the sinker and changeup. His whiff rate was 37.3% and his xwOBACON was .277. That showed that Olivarez in Triple-A could not just generate swings and misses, but also unproductive contact. Unfortunately, his paltry 40.2% zone rate and lackluster 18.8% chase rate weigh down his overall outlook at the Major League level. It will be hard for him to succeed until he improves his control and reduces the number of free passes. The Royals likely view Olivarez as a project who will likely eat a lot of innings as the primary lefty reliever in the Triple-A Storm Chasers bullpen. According to Roster Resource, the only other lefty relievers currently in the Omaha bullpen are Chazz Martinez and Christian Chamberlain, who are both older than Olivarez. That said, the Royals have had success the past couple of seasons with relievers on Minor League deals, as demonstrated by Taylor Clarke last year and Sam Long in 2024. Photo Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images View full rumor

On Wednesday morning, Jon Heyman reported that the Royals are among the teams still interested in acquiring free-agent outfielder Austin Hays. Hays is coming off a solid season with a Reds team that made the postseason a year ago (they lost in the Wild Card round to the eventual World Series champion Dodgers). In 416 plate appearances, the 30-year-old outfielder slashed .266/.315/.453 with a .327 wOBA, 105 wRC+, 15 home runs, and 64 RBI. He also accumulated a 1.2 fWAR with the Reds in 2025, a one-fWAR improvement from his split season with the Orioles and Phillies in 2024. The 2016 third-round pick was primarily effective as a lefty-masher with Cincinnati. In 105 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, he hit .319 with a 155 wRC+, .231 ISO, and 0.50 BB/K ratio. Conversely, in 289 plate appearances against righties last year, Hays hit .249 with an 88 wRC+, .173 ISO, and 0.20 BB/K ratio. Thus, if the Royals acquire Hays, it's likely that he could be in a platoon role, splitting time in either right field with Jac Caglianone or in left field with Isaac Collins. Lane Thomas, in this scenario, would likely split time with Kyle Isbel in center field. When looking at his Statcast summary profile via TJ Stats, Hays shows adeptness at pulling and barreling the ball. However, his exit velocity and plate discipline metrics were shaky last season. As a result, his .300 xwOBA was 27 points lower than his actual wOBA, a sign that he could be due for regression in 2026. The Royals still are reportedly trying to acquire Jarren Duran from the Red Sox or Brendan Donovan from the Cardinals. That said, Hays may be a nice consolation prize for the Royals if GM JJ Picollo isn't able to swing a trade for the Red Sox outfielder or Cardinals infielder this offseason. Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images View full rumor

Image courtesy of DiamondCentric via Peter Aiken, Jay Biggerstaff, and Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images In part four of our countdown of the Royals’ assets, we will be talking about the 10th through 6th most valuable player assets. If you missed the previous three lists, they are listed here. Part 1: #21-25 Part 2: #16-20 Part 3: #11-15 10. David Shields, LHP Age: 19 Controlled Through 2031+ Shields may be the best young pitching prospect in the Royals system right now, impressive since he is still a teenager. In his first season as a professional, between the Complex League in Arizona and Single-A Columbia, he posted a 2.38 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 2.75 FIP in 75.2 IP. He also showed impeccable command with a 31.9% CSW, 28.5% K rate, and 27.5% K-BB%. The lefty out of Mt. Lebanon High School in Pittsburgh primarily pitched with the Fireflies in 2025 and earned Carolina League Pitcher of the Year honors by the end of the season. Even though he hasn't advanced beyond Single-A ball, Shields is seen as one of the top pitchers in the Royals' farm system and one of the more underrated pitchers in the Minor Leagues. Baseball America notes that Shields has the best control of any pitcher in the Kansas City system, and MLB Pipeline had this to say in their most recent scouting report of the 2024 second-round pick. While he's not a high-velocity arm now, many scouts note that he likely will gain more as he moves up and gets older. Shields has a top-of-the-rotation projection, which makes him a Top-10 asset for the Royals right now. 9. Kendry Chourio, RHP Age: 18 Controllable Through 2031+ Shields and Chourio both pitched in Single-A Columbia last year, but the Venezuelan-born righty slightly edges out the Connecticut lefty in terms of asset value. One reason is age: Chourio is nearly a full year younger than Shields. The second reason is stuff: Chourio sports a mid- to upper-90s fastball. That ability gives him a higher ceiling than Shields, though Chourio's command and control lag a little bit behind the Pittsburgh area product. Baseball America is also incredibly optimistic about Chourio's stuff and repertoire, especially for a pitcher without intimidating size. The 18-year-old Venezuelan played at three levels as a 17-year-old last season: the Dominican Summer League, the Complex League, and the Carolina League (Single-A). Across those three stops, Chourio accumulated 51.1 IP and posted a 3.51 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 2.68 FIP. He also sported a 30.8% CSW, 29,9% K rate, and 27.5% K-BB%, thus illustrating he has the command and swing-and-miss ability to thrive as a top-of-the-rotation starter at the Major League level. Chourio's more dynamic profile makes him a slightly more valuable asset than Shields. A standard comp for Chourio is Royals legend Yordano Ventura, and when watching him pitch on tape, it's easy to see why: his easy motion and knack for getting hitters to swing and miss. 8. Blake Mitchell, C Age: 21 Controllable Through 2031+ Mitchell is an interesting asset for the Royals because he's coming off a rough, injury-plagued 2025 season. After breaking a hamate bone in his hand in Spring Training, Mitchell struggled to get going with the River Bandits last season. In 255 plate appearances, he only hit .218, posted a 111 wRC+, and launched three home runs, scored 28 runs, and stole 12 bases. He's got an athletic profile for a catcher with strong HR-SB ability. That was especially evident in 2024 with the Fireflies, as he hit 18 home runs and stole 26 bases in 486 plate appearances. And this is despite his primary position being catcher. A positive development for Mitchell is that he's coming off a strong Arizona Fall League campaign, which I believe has helped him recoup some of his value. In 83 plate appearances, he slashed .218/.390/.320 with a homer and five RBI. He also made the AFL All-Star team and led the Surprise Saguaros to an AFL Championship. There's a lot of swing-and-miss in Mitchell's profile, as he sported a 66.7% contact rate last year in High-A Quad Cities. However, he has strong plate discipline and athleticism and has demonstrated significant improvement defensively since being drafted in 2023. He's ranked No. 62 overall by MLB Pipeline, making him one of the top assets in the Royals system without MLB experience. With catching a source of organizational depth for the Royals, Mitchell is likely a prospect the Royals are floating in many trade talks this offseason. 7. Noah Cameron, LHP Age: 26 Controllable Through 2031 Cameron had a renaissance last year in his MLB rookie debut. The lefty out of St. Joseph, Missouri, posted a 2.99 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 24 starts and 138.1 IP. His FIP was a little high at 4.18, and his fWAR wasn't as impressive at 1.8. Nonetheless, Cameron posted a rookie debut to remember, which also included him finishing fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting. The Royals have a ton of control over Cameron. He won't be eligible for arbitration until 2029 and won't be a free agent until 2032. That makes him a valuable asset, even if he may profile more as an end-of-the-rotation arm long term. While his K/BB ratio was strong at 2.65, his K rate was only 20.5%, his K-BB% was 12.8%, and CSW was 26.9%. Those are good numbers, especially for a starter. However, they are not elite, which could be why his name is not generating a ton of interest around the league in trade talks this offseason. Still, with excellent command, poise, and stability, Cameron has significant value to this Royals organization internally. He showed that he could take the mound and be competitive in many starts, as illustrated by his 10 quality starts last season. He also stayed healthy, which was a concern when he was initially drafted in the seventh round in the 2021 MLB Draft out of Central Arkansas. He had Tommy John surgery in college, but thankfully, he hasn't had any injury issues as a professional, which only adds to his long-term value to this Royals organization. 6. Kris Bubic, LHP Age: 28 Controllable Through 2026 Bubic will be a free agent after this season, which prevents him from ranking any higher than sixth. That said, he's one of the most talented pitchers on the Royals roster, and he illustrated last year that he could be a Cy Young candidate when healthy. After primarily pitching in the bullpen in 2024 (due to recovery from Tommy John in 2023 and the Royals' desire to "ease him" back to the mound), Bubic made 20 starts and pitched 116.1 innings last season. In that sample, he accumulated 11 quality starts, posted a 2.55 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and 2.89 FIP. He also sported a 24.4% K rate, a 16.2% K-BB%, and 30.1% CSW. Of Royals starting pitchers with 10 or more IP, only Cole Ragans posted a better CSW. As a result of these solid metrics, Bubic earned his first All-Star appearance in 2025. Unfortunately, injury issues came up in the second half, as a shoulder injury (similar to Ragans') shut him down for the remainder of the season. That said, Ragans' positive recovery should be an encouraging sign for Bubic and his health outlook for 2026. While Cameron holds more value to the Royals internally than with other clubs on the trade market, the inverse may be true for Bubic. It seems like Bubic may be Kansas City's best "realistic" trade asset right now. JJ Picollo has said they are not interested in trading away Ragans, Michael Wacha, or Seth Lugo. Furthermore, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has reported that the Royals remain "open" to trading Bubic, a sign that they're almost preparing to part ways with him should the right offer come along this offseason. It seems like Bubic could be the key to a trade involving Jarren Duran of the Red Sox or Brendan Donovan of the Cardinals. That kind of trade value is what makes him such an essential asset in the Royals organization, even though he will be eligible for free agency next offseason. View full article

Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images Around this time, many projection systems begin churning out their latest models for the upcoming season. Steamer tends to be the earliest to go public, which provides a lot of spark and debate during this busy winter "hot stove" season. Here is a description of Steamer projections, including their history and how they are calculated both before and during the season. This will be a two-part series. In part one, I will look at five hitters who have noteworthy Steamer projections for 2026. In part two, I will look at five pitchers. I have included a table below of Steamer projections for Royals players who are projected to accumulate 10 or more plate appearances in 2026 (ranked by fWAR). That gives readers who may want to see how others are doing a glimpse of how others are doing beyond the five I will analyze in this post. Remember, the projections listed capture their 80th percentile projection. Bobby Witt Jr. will likely have more than 634 plate appearances next year. The same is true for Salvador Perez and 580 plate appearances. Thus, when looking at these, it's essential to approach these projections as a "modest estimate", not necessarily as gospel. With that said, let's look at five Royals hitters who could make a significant impact on the Royals lineup in 2026, based on their intriguing Steamer projections. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B In 563 projected plate appearances: 24 HR, 72 R, 81 RBI, .266 AVG, .346 wOBA, 120 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR The Royals have extended Witt and Maikel Garcia to solidify the left side of their infield until at least 2030. However, they have been a bit quieter about their long-term plans with Pasquantino, who's coming off a 32-HR, 113-RBI season, both career highs. The Pasquatch has struggled to stay healthy since debuting in 2022. However, he trended positively in terms of playing time last year, playing in 160 games and collecting 682 plate appearances. By avoiding the IL, Pasquantino was finally able to maximize his production, leading the Royals in home runs and RBI. Steamer seems optimistic that Pasquantino will continue to mash in the Royals' lineup in 2026. Pasquantino is projected to hit 24 HR, the third-highest projection for next year (behind only Witt's 26 and Perez's 25). His 120 wRC+ is the second-highest projection behind Witt's 133. Lastly, Steamer projects a positive boost in the BB/K ratio to 0.59. That's 13 points better than his ratio a season ago. The primary issue with Pasquantino is that his defense weighs him down. Last year, he posted a -16.9 Def (defensive runs above average), which contributed to his fWAR of only 1.5. Steamer projects a similar defensive outlook, with a -11.6 Def for 2026. Thus, he is projected to produce a Steamer under two, despite his optimistic offensive outlook. Despite the defensive issues, the Royals' primary first baseman should continue to be a force in the Royals' lineup, and he could be Kansas City's next extension candidate after the conclusion of this season, especially if he matches or surpasses his Steamer projections. Jonathan India, 2B In 500 plate appearances: 11 HR, 57 R, 47 RBI, 6 SB, .247 AVG, .320 wOBA, 102 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR It was a nightmare season for India in Kansas City last year. In 567 plate appearances, the former Reds second baseman hit .233 with an 89 wRC+ and -0.3 fWAR. Those were career-worst marks in those three categories. To make matters worse, he lost his spot as the Royals' leadoff hitter after the Trade Deadline, and he was seen as a non-tender candidate this offseason. Kansas City opted to bring India back for at least one more year, agreeing to an $8 million deal for this season. While many Royals fans are not optimistic about his outlook, Steamer paints a rosier picture for 2026. Steamer projects India sees a bit of a power and speed boost for 2026, with 11 home runs (two more than last year) and six stolen bases (none in the previous season). Steamer also expects India to see some batted-ball correction, with a 14-point increase in batting average. However, the most encouraging aspect of India's projection profile is that his trademark plate discipline shouldn't see regression. Steamer projects a 10.3% walk rate and 0.54 BB/K ratio, both improvements from a year ago (9.5% walk rate; 0.51 BB/K ratio). It seems like manager Matt Quatraro has a better sense of India's talents and skills, and thus, it's unlikely that the 29-year-old second baseman will move around the field like a year ago. That should help his defensive production, though it's unlikely that India will ever be a solid defensive player. Steamer projects a -6.1 Def for 2026, which isn't good, but is 5.7 points better than last season. The Royals do not need India to be an All-Star or an impact hitter at the top of the batting order. However, if he can provide a disciplined approach and some occasional pop in the 6th-7th hole in the batting order, that should be more than enough to help improve a Royals lineup that struggled with consistency in 2025. Jac Caglianone, RF In 418 plate appearances: 17 HR, 51 R, 56 RBI, 2 SB, .255 AVG, .331 wOBA, 109 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR Speaking of brutal seasons, no Royals position player had it worse than Caglianone, who struggled in his transition to the Major League level last year. In 232 plate appearances, Caglianone hit .157 with a 46 wRC+ and accumulated a -1.6 fWAR, the worst mark of Royals players a season ago. Hence, it is easy for many Royals fans to lose faith in Caglianone after he received such massive hype a season ago upon his debut. Steamer projections illustrate to Royals fans, however, that they should not lose faith in Caglianone and his potential impact in 2026. Caglianone is projected to hit 17 home runs and post a .331 wOBA and 109 wRC+, both massive improvements from a season ago. The defense is still a question mark, as Steamer projected Caglianone to produce a -6.6 Def in the outfield. That said, Caglianone's value and impact are needed by the Royals at the plate, not in the field. Kansas City can live with subpar defense if he can hit 20 or more home runs a season. His projected plate appearance numbers are low, so it's likely that Caglianone could surpass 17 home runs and hit 20 to 25 home runs if he receives 500 or more plate appearances. His .195 projected ISO is a 57-point increase from his rookie year, and he has the potential to live up to that ISO number or more, based on his substantial exit velocity and barrel metrics from a season ago. Will Caglianone be able to launch the ball enough to translate his batted-ball quality and bat speed into production in 2026? Steamer seems to think so. Carter Jensen, C In 277 plate appearances: 9 HR, 33 R, 32 RBI, 3 SB, .246 AVG, .323 wOBA, 104 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR While Caglianone failed to live up to rookie expectations in 2025, the opposite was true for Jensen, a local product who attended Park Hill High School in the northern KC metro area. A September call-up when rosters expanded, Jensen hit .300 with a 159 wRC+ and sported a 0.7 fWAR in 69 plate appearances. He also showed excellent batted-ball ability as well as plate discipline in his small MLB sample, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary from a season ago. The hype for Jensen in 2026 is real, and it seems like JJ Picollo and Quatraro are on board to make sure Jensen eases the catching load for Perez, much like Freddy Fermin did in 2024 and 2025 before the Royals backup catcher was traded to San Diego at the Trade Deadline. While Royals fans should be encouraged by Jensen's outlook, Steamer projects a bit of a regression, which makes sense over a larger sample. In 277 projected plate appearances, Steamer expects Jensen to hit .246 with nine home runs and 32 RBI. They also project him to post a .323 wOBA and 104 wRC+. For context, those marks are expected to be better than Perez's (.318 wOBA; 101 wRC+) next year. Of course, this is a pretty modest projection, and simply viewing Jensen as solely a backup catcher. I think Jensen is due for more designated hitter plate appearances, especially if he can get off to a hot start to the season. Nonetheless, Steamer is warning Royals fans who think Jensen is due for 20 to 30 home runs next year to perhaps cool their jets a bit (for now). Lane Thomas, OF In 379 plate appearances: 11 HR, 45 R, 41 RBI, 13 SB, .236 AVG, .306 wOBA, 92 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR The Royals seem to be aiming to make one more big move, whether it's Boston's Jarren Duran or St. Louis' Brendan Donovan. That should keep Thomas regulated to a fourth-outfielder role, who may get semi-regular time if he can get on a hot streak at the plate. Steamer is a bit conflicted about Thomas, who posted a 48 wRC+ and -0.5 fWAR in an injury-plagued campaign in Cleveland last year. On one end, they are optimistic about his home run (11) and stolen base (13) production in a modest sample (379 plate appearances). Steamer also expects a power boost with a .158 ISO, a 46-point increase from a season ago, and only a five-point difference from 2024 when he played for the Nationals and Guardians. Thomas' plate discipline is projected to be around where it was last year. His 25.5% K rate is expected to be a 5.5% improvement, but his 0.32 BB/K ratio is expected to match his season-ago rate. The defense also doesn't project well, as his Steamer projects him to produce a -4.5 Def. That's a big reason why his fWAR is expected to hover under one next year. Still, for a fourth outfielder, this isn't a bad profile for the Royals to have. His wRC+ is projected to be better than Michael Massey's (89), John Rave's (84), and Tyler Tolbert's (66). Thus, Thomas should raise the floor of a Royals lineup that struggled to find right-handed production from the outfield last year. View full article

On Saturday evening, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the Royals remain open to trading starter Kris Bubic and other pitchers to acquire a big-name bat this offseason. Bubic had an excellent campaign in 2025, despite missing most of the second half due to a shoulder injury. In 20 starts and 116.1 IP, the first-time All-Star posted a 2.55 ERA, an 8.97 K/9, and accumulated a 3.3 fWAR. Only Michael Wacha posted a higher pitcher fWAR last season (3.6) for the Royals. Additionally, upon his return to the rotation last year, Bubic still profiled well across his TJ Stuff and other metrics, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary below. Bubic rated above-average in not just TJ Stuff+ (103), but zone% (51.9%), chase% (32.4%), whiff% (28.8%), and xwOBACON (.344). Thus, it makes sense why teams are interested in Bubic's services for 2026, even if he will be a free agent after next season. In addition to Bubic, it also seems like the Royals may be interested in trading relievers John Schreiber or Bailey Falter to clear payroll for a player like Boston's Jarren Duran or St. Louis' Brendan Donovan. Here's what Rosenthal says about those possibilities in his latest piece. John Schreiber is an interesting name, mainly because he was used in many high-leverage situations last year. When it came to gmLI, which measures leverage index when a pitcher enters a game, only Carlos Estevez (1.81) and Lucas Erceg (1.64) had higher gmLI marks than Schreiber. That said, while the 31-year-old righty posted a 3.80 ERA and flooded the strike zone last year, he struggled to generate chases and whiffs, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary below. As for Bailey Falter, he struggled in his brief tenure in Kansas City, posting an 11.25 ERA in 12 IP with the Royals. His FIP was a little better at 5.22, but his overall FIP was 4.94 over 125.1 IP with the Pirates and Royals last season. Like Schreiber, inducing whiffs and chases was an issue for Falter a year ago, and it's hard to imagine it improving enough in 2026. While Falter and Schreiber may not be trending in the right direction, they could be a nice fit for a roster that lacks bullpen depth and needs relievers who will throw strikes and limit the walks. Rosenthal mentioned that Kansas City remains committed to keeping not just Cole Ragans but also to Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo, among others, even though they are drawing interest. The Royals have traded away Angel Zerpa and Jonathan Bowlan already this offseason, who posted ERA marks of 4.31 and 3.61 last season, respectively. It will be interesting to see whether Royals GM JJ Picollo would be open to trading another young pitcher, such as Noah Cameron, Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek, or Luinder Avila, if it helps them acquire a big-name position player who can boost the middle of the batting order. Photo Credit: Peter Aiken-Imagn Images View full rumor

Shortly after the news of Kansas City acquiring Matt Strahm from Philadelphia in exchange for Jonathan Bowlan, Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extra Base reported that utility player Abraham Toro agreed to a Minor League deal with the Royals that includes an invitation to MLB Spring Training. The 29-year-old infielder played with the Red Sox last season, posting a 77 wRC+ and -0.7 fWAR in 284 plate appearances. His best season fWAR-wise came in 2024 with the Athletics, as he not only posted a career-high 0.7 fWAR, but also sported an 87 wRC+ in 364 plate appearances. Toro struggles to generate hard contact, as his average exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit rates ranked near the bottom of the league, according to TJ Stats data. That said, he makes a lot of contact and doesn't strike out, despite an aggressive approach, which can be seen in his Statcast percentiles below. Because this is a Minor League deal, the Royals do not have to clear a roster spot for Toro. Kevin Newman was also invited to Spring Training earlier this month and should compete with Toro for a spot on the 40-man roster this spring in Surprise. Photo Credit: Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images View full rumor

On Friday morning, Robert Murray of Fansided noted that left-handed reliever Matt Strahm would be heading to the Kansas City Royals, according to sources. Later, Mark Feinsand confirmed the move, also noting that right-handed reliever Jonathan Bowlan would be going back to the Phillies in the deal. The Royals this offseason have noted that they wanted to acquire a lefty reliever who could get left-handed batters out. After trading away Angel Zerpa for Isaac Collins and Nick Mears, it seemed like the Royals' need for such a reliever was even more urgent. Strahm is a former 21st-round draft pick by the Royals, selected in the 2012 MLB Draft. Strahm pitched two seasons in Kansas City (2016 and 2017) and put up ERA marks of 1.23 and 5.49, respectively. Since then, he's pitched for the Padres, Red Sox, and Phillies and posted a 2.74 ERA, 2.99 FIP, and 1.5 fWAR in 66 outings and 62.1 IP. When looking at his metrics via TJ Stats, Strahm illustrated above-average stuff metrics, a strong ability to flood the strike zone, and a capability to generate a lot of chase as well as weak contact. Strahm will be a free agent after the 2026 season. It will be interesting to see if Strahm will be a one-year project or if the Royals are planning to extend him at some point next year. He just turned 34 years old this November. As for Bowlan, he had a solid year last season, posting a 3.86 ERA in 44.1 IP. He also sported strong TJ Stuff+ metrics as well as chase and whiff rates, according to TJ Stats. Bowlan's FIP was a bit higher at 3.97, and he didn't see a whole lot of high-leverage situations last year. He is also out of Minor League options, and he was one of the most optioned relievers in the Royals' bullpen last season. With the arrival of Mears and James McArthur returning from injury, it seems like the Royals were willing to make Bowlan expendable, despite his intriguing pitch metrics. The Royals have made the deal official, per their team's social media accounts. With it being a one-for-one trade, the Royals roster remains full at 40 players. Photo Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images View full rumor

Image courtesy of William Purnell, Bill Streicher, and Denny Medley-Imagn Images In the mold of our friends over at Twins Daily, I wanted to figure out who the 25 most valuable player assets were in the Kansas City Royals organization going into 2026. This is especially important amid rumors of possible Royals trades. If Kansas City does want to acquire a player, who are the candidates with enough asset value to help put a deal over the top? There are various tools to do this. Baseball Trade Values is an incredible resource, as is their Trade Simulator. However, player value can go beyond their "trade value" on the market. Yes, a player's age, contract, controllability, and upside all matter. Additionally, other factors matter, especially those related to the Royals' context and their current standing as a franchise. And where are they now? They are on the rise, looking to return to the postseason after an 82-80 season in 2025. Under GM JJ Picollo and owner John Sherman, the Royals are looking to be a perennial small-market winner, like the Brewers, Rays, and Guardians. That said, they also seem willing to make the right trades to get the right players and assets to compete for not just a Central Division crown and postseason berth, but an AL Pennant and World Series title as well. Thus, there is a balance of young and veteran players on this Top 25 list, reflecting the Royals' current situation. This list will definitely change over time, but as we finish 2025 and head into 2026, this group of 25 Royals players is the most important in the organization, based on all the factors I have mentioned above. Let's begin by looking at this group of Kansas City assets, starting with the 25th through 21st players in this post. 25. Michael Massey, 2B/LF Age: 27 Controlled Through: 2028 Massey is coming off a rough season, posting a 57 wRC+ while only accumulating 277 plate appearances due to various injuries. That said, he posted a 104 wRC+ and 1.5 fWAR in 2024 and was a leadoff hitter for the Royals in the postseason that year. He has a bit of a free-swinging approach (career 0.23 BB/K ratio), but there is some power there (.190 ISO in 2024) for a second baseman, which gives him value. Another positive aspect of Massey's profile is that he's solid defensively and can play second base and left field seamlessly. He's accumulated an OAA of +3 and FRV of +6 at second base over his career and a FRV of +1 in the outfield. That versatility is a big reason the Royals tendered him a contract this offseason and why he could be attractive to other teams in a possible trade, especially if he were moved to a more hitter-friendly park. 24. James McArthur, RHP Age: 29 Controlled Through: 2029 McArthur didn't throw a pitch for the Royals last year due to recovery from elbow surgery. However, he has sneaky value as a pitching asset, especially given his low salary ($800,000 in 2026) and years of team control (he will not be a free agent until 2030). Though he is nearly 30, his arm should be fresh after sitting out all of 2025. In 2024, his ERA was high at 4.92, and even though he saved 18 games in 57 appearances, he blew seven games. That inconsistency in the ninth led to him losing the closer's job to Lucas Erceg, who was acquired at the 2024 Trade Deadline. A deeper look into McArthur's metrics shows a rosier picture for 2026, especially if he's healthy. Two seasons ago, he posted a 30.7% and 31.4% CSW, as well as a groundball rate of 53.3%. As a result, his FIP was a lot better at 4.17, as was his 3.62 xFIP. He could thrive in a middle-innings or seventh-inning setup man role in 2026 and beyond. He also could benefit from another year of tutelage from not just Brian Sweeney, but new assistant pitching coach Mike McFerran, who replaced Zach Bove, who left for the pitching coach job with the White Sox. 23. Ben Kudrna, RHP Age: 22 Controlled Through: 2031+ The Royals added Kudrna to the 40-man roster this year, despite an uneven season in the Minors last season. In 24 appearances (22 starts) and 102.1 IP between Double-A and Triple-A, he posted a 5.30 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 1.44 WHIP, and 2.12 K/BB ratio. However, he was particularly disastrous in 11.1 IP with the Storm Chasers. In Triple-A, Kudrna posted a 14.29 ERA, 9.94 FIP, 2.74 WHIP, and 0.59 K/BB ratio. Kansas City still added Kudrna to the 40-man roster despite the rough Omaha debut because the Overland Park native has shown the ability to adjust at each Minor League level. After putting up a sub-20% K rate in High-A in 2023, he improved his K rate to 24.2% overall between High-A and Double-A in 2024 and 22.9% overall last year. He is also only 22 years old and should benefit from some coaching changes (there will be a new manager) that could help Kudrna in a full season in Omaha. Kudrna may not be an "ace" at the Major League level, but he has No. 4-to-5 starter potential with No. 3 upside, which gives him pretty good value as a player asset in this Royals organization (though his stuff is more good than "elite"). 22. Ryan Bergert, RHP Age: 25 Controlled Through: 2031 Bergert came over in the Freddy Fermin trade with San Diego and initially got off to a great start in Royals blue. In August, he posted a 2.54 ERA and 3.13 K/BB ratio in 28.1 IP with the Royals. In September? He posted an 8.76 ERA and 1.56 K/BB ratio in 12.1 IP before being shut down for the remainder of the injury due to shoulder impingement. In 40.2 IP with the Royals overall last year, he put up a 4.43 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, and 2.29 K/BB ratio. He definitely has strikeout ability (22.4% K rate with the Royals), and he limited his hard-hit rate from 37.5% earlier in the year with San Diego to 35.6% with Kansas City after the Trade Deadline. He does allow a lot of fly balls, however, with a 47.6% flyball rate overall last season. Bergert has a chance to climb this list if he returns healthy and can iron out his command a bit in an end-of-the-rotation or hybrid role in 2026. If he can regain the form he had in that first month in Kansas City, he could be a Top-15 player asset by the conclusion of next season. 21. Stephen Kolek, RHP Age: 28 Controlled Through: 2031+ Kolek, who also came to the Royals in the Fermin trade, is a tad older than Bergert, but he was more successful overall in 2025. In 19 starts and 112.2 IP with the Padres and Royals last year, he posted a 3.51 ERA, 3.82 FIP, and 1.7 fWAR. Kolek was especially successful with the Royals, as he posted a 1.91 ERA, 2.71 FIP, and 0.9 fWAR in five starts and 33 IP. Kolek's profile is very different from Bergert's. Bergert generated more strikeouts, as Kolek only sported a 16.8% K rate and 24.8% CSW last year. However, the former Texas A&M pitcher was much better at generating groundballs (51.4%) and commanding the strike zone (2.48 K/BB ratio). The lack of swing-and-miss for Kolek could make him susceptible to some regression in 2026, but it seems like the Royals have succeeded with pitchers of his profile, with Seth Lugo and Noah Cameron being prime examples. His ability to limit walks and eat innings makes Kolek a valuable asset, especially since he's still in the pre-arbitration process. That said, his age (28) deflates his value a bit, especially since he'll be 30 in 2028 and 2025 was his first real exposure as a starter at the Major League level (he pitched 42 innings in 2024 but only as a reliever). Look out soon for part 2 by Philip Ruo, which looks at the 20th through 16th player assets in the Royals system! View full article