Five Royals Relief Pitchers to Watch in 2026 Based on Steamer Projections

In part one of this Royals Steamer Projections series, I examined the hitters and their outlooks for 2026. In part two, I looked at starting two pitchers, including two with optimistic projections and two who could be due for regression. 

In the final part of this series, I will deep dive into the Steamer projections of five Royals relief pitchers. Much like the starting pitchers piece, I will look at three starting pitchers with positive outlooks for the upcoming season and two who may be due for regression, based on their Steamer projections. As with any projection system, these aren't "scripture" but rather baselines for measuring future performance.

Even though just five will be profiled, below is a look at all the 2026 Steamer projections of Royals relievers. A link to the interactive table is available here. 

Thus, let's take a look at the five Royals relievers who fans should pay attention to closely in 2026. (Statcast summaries courtesy of TJ Stats.)

Matt Strahm, LHP

In 66 projected IP: 3.66 ERA, 1 SV, 17 HLD, 26.2% K%, 18.7% K-BB%, 1.18 WHIP, 31.2% GB%, 3.66 FIP, 0.7 fWAR

The Royals' biggest pitching acquisition of the offseason has been Strahm, a 34-year-old veteran who last pitched with the Phillies. In Philadelphia last year, the 2012 Royals draft pick (21st-round pick) posted a 2.74 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 27.3% K%, and 1.5 fWAR in 66 appearances and 62.1 IP. 

One of the goals for the Royals this offseason was to find a left-handed pitcher who could thrive in high-leverage situations. Based on his Win Probability data from last year, Strahm fits the bill perfectly.

The lefty had 30 shutdowns a season ago, a WPA of 2.30, a 1.50 GM/LI (leverage index when entering a game), and 0.90 clutch factor. For context, his shutdown number led all Phillies pitchers, as did his clutch factor. His WPA was the fourth-highest mark of Philadelphia pitchers, behind starters Christopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler, and Ranger Suarez. And his GM/LI was behind only closer Jhoan Duran and right-handed setup man Orion Kerkering. 

When it comes to his outlook next year, Steamer projects Strahm to be the Royals' best reliever. 

His 0.7 fWAR is the best projection of any Royals reliever, and his 26.2% K rate and 18.7% K-BB% are also the best projected marks in those categories. The GB% is a bit low at 31.2%, but Strahm has still found a way to be successful by minimizing hard contact. According to Statcast, his average EV and barrel rate allowed ranked in the 98th and 95th percentiles, respectively, as seen in the TJ Stats summary below.

There are some concerns with Strahm: his fastball velocity ranked in the 24th percentile, and he may not have room to increase it given his age and extension (22nd percentile). However, Strahm has proven to be a dependable and effective arm in late-inning situations, which only should strengthen a Royals bullpen that ranked seventh in reliever ERA last season.

Lucas Erceg, RHP

In 62 projected IP: 3.57  ERA, 2 SV, 13 HLD, 23.9%  K%, 15.2% K-BB%, 1.28 WHIP, 46.5% GB%, 3.59 FIP, 0.6 fWAR

Expectations were high for Erceg after he closed games down for the Royals down the stretch in 2024 and in the postseason. Many Royals fans were initially surprised that JJ Picollo acquired closer Carlos Estevez last offseason, but it proved to be the right decision. Not just because Estevez was effective, but because Erceg also had a season of regression.

In 2024, the former Athletics reliever posted a 2.88 ERA, 1.17 FIP, and 1.4 fWAR in 25 IP with the Royals. He also had 11 saves, including some big ones in the postseason in the AL Wild Card against Baltimore and ALDS against the Yankees.

However, in 2025, in 61.1 IP last year, his ERA remained solid at 2.64, but his FIP was 3.49, and his fWAR was 0.9. A big reason for the fWAR and FIP regression was due to the decline in strikeouts. After posting a 32% K rate with the Royals in 2024, his K rate regressed to 19.3% last year. 

It wasn't exactly a "healthy" season for Erceg, as he dealt with lingering back issues all year (which included an IL stint). Erceg didn't have as sharp a command in Kansas City last year as he did in his Royals debut in 2024. That was evidenced by his 26% CSW, which was a 7% regression from a season ago. He also saw some regression on his fastball quality, as it sported a TJ Stuff+ mark under 100, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary below.

Steamer projects a bounce back for Ereceg, especially in his strikeout rate. He is projected to post a 23.9% K rate, a 4.6% improvement from a year ago. He is also projected to post a 15.2% K-BB%, a 3.2% improvement from 2025, while maintaining a solid GB% at 46.5%. Hence, Erceg is expected to post the second-best fWAR of Royals relievers with a 0.6 mark, and the best FIP at 3.59. 

Estevez may be locked in as the Royals' closer in 2026, but fans shouldn't sleep on Erceg to challenge him for save opportunities in 2026. 

Carlos Estevez, RHP

In 65 projected IP: 4.29 ERA, 31 SV, 2 HLD, 21.7%  K%, 13% K-BB%, 1.33 WHIP, 32.7% GB%, 4.30 FIP, 0.2 fWAR

Estevez had one of the best seasons for a closer in Royals history, which is saying something considering the history of excellent closers in the Kansas City organization. 

In 67 appearances and 66 IP, the 33-year-old closer saved 42 games, posted an ERA of 2.45, a FIP of 3.67, and fWAR of 1.1. He made the All-Star team and led the Major Leagues in saves, the first time a Royals closer has done that since Dan Quisenberry. 

That said, a deeper look into his metrics illustrates that Estevez may have a hard time repeating in 2026 what he did in 2025. 

In 2025, Estevez posted a K rate of 20.1% and K-BB% of 11.9%. That's 3.5% and 6% decline from his marks in those categories a season ago. Furthermore, his CSW regressed from 28.6% in 2024 to 24.3% in 2025, a 4.3% decline. Lastly, his Statcast percentiles looked pretty questionable overall last year, not indicative of a top flight closer.

Steamer seems to agree that Estevez may be due for some regression in 2026. They project his ERA will be 4.29, a 0.84 point increase, and his FIP to be 4.30, a 0.67 point increase. They do project bumps in K rate, with a 1.2% increase, and K-BB%, with a 1.1% increase. However, Steamer projects an expected bump in BABIP from .234 last year to .290 this year, which will contribute to the increases in ERA and FIP. 

Estevez will still be a good closer in 2026, and his 31 projected saves demosntrate that. That said, he likely won't be the All-Star closer that he was a season ago. 

Alex Lange, RHP

In 52 projected IP: 3.93  ERA, 0 SV, 7 HLD, 24.1%  K%, 12.5% K-BB%, 1.41 WHIP, 46.8% GB%, 3.95 FIP, 0.2 fWAR

Lange was one of the Royals' earliest moves, and it has gone under the radar after that Strahm acquisition. However, the former Tigers closer may be one of the sneakiest moves Picollo has made this offseason.

Injuries and inconsistency have limited the KC Metro product, as he has only pitched in 19.2 IP at the Major League level in the past two seasons. He did primarily pitch in Triple-A Toledo as he recovered from a right lat injury suffered in 2024. In that sample, the metrics weren't impressive at the surface level (4.62 ERA, 3.88 FIP in 25.1 IP), but his TJ Stats Statcast summary from Triple-A was the inverse, as seen below.

That's a lot of red in that profile, which is a good thing. Lange ranked in the 100th percentile in Whiff%, 99th percentile in K% and barrel rate, 97th percentile in CSW, and 94th percentile in GB%. If Lange is able to transition those skills to the MLB level in 2026, he could end up being one of the Royals' most valuable relievers by the conclusion of next season.

Steamer seems to believe that he can make that transition.

In 52 innings, they projected him to put up a 3.93 ERA, a 3.95 FIP, a 24.1% K rate, and 12.5% K-BB%. What's also nice about Lange's profile is that he can generate a lot of groundballs, and Steamer projects that he will produce a 46.8% GB% next year. Only James McArthur (47.1%) and Luinder Avila (47%) are expected to sport better marks in that category. 

Control is, and has always been an issue with Lange, as evidenced by his 13.5% careeer BB%. Conversely, he generates a lot of chase, with a 33.4% career O-Swing%. The Royals' 30.5% O-Swing% ranked 26th last year, so Lange's profile will be welcomed, even if there may be some walk risk. 

John Schreiber, RHP

In 64 projected IP: 4.03  ERA, 1 SV, 14 HLD, 21.4%  K%, 12.6% K-BB%, 1.34 WHIP, 42% GB%, 4.07 FIP, 0.3 fWAR

Schreiber has been one of the more utilized Royals relievers in the past two years, especially in high-leverage situations. His 1.51 GM/LI is tied for the fourth-highest mark of Kansas City relievers from 2024-2025. His 53 shutdowns also leads all Royals relievers from the past two seasons, and his 1.99 WPA is tied for the third-best mark over that period as well (behind only Erceg and Estevez). 

Unfortunately, he started to show some blemishes in his profile in 2025 after a sensational 2024.

His ERA went from 3.66 in 2024 to 3.80 in 2025, his FIP rose from 3.03 in 2024 to 4.17 in 2025, and his fWAR went from 1.3 in 2024 to 0.3 in 2025. A big reason for this regression was a sharp increase in HR/FB rate, as his 13% mark was 11% higher than in 2024. Schreiber also saw a decrease in GB%, seeing it go from 51.3% in 2024 to 39% in 2025.

HIs TJ Stats summary also showed some percentile concerns, especially in O-Swing% and barrel rate. 

Steamer seems to project that the regression will continue for Schreiber in 2026. They project his ERA will be 4.03 and his FIP will be 4.07. They also project a 21.4% K%, a two percent decrease from a season ago. With the arrival of Lange, Strahm, and Nick Mears, it's possible that Schreiber will be more of a medium-leverage arm instead of the high-leverage one from the past couple of seasons. 

And that change in role could make Schreiber a tradeable asset this winter, especially for a team that may be starved for help in the bullpen in 2026. The 31-year-old reliever could net the Royals a nice return, whether it's in terms of hitting help or prospect capital.