What Are The Royals Getting In Isaac Collins?

On December 14, the Royals traded for outfielder Isaac Collins, along with relief pitcher Nick Mears, from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for relief pitcher Angel Zerpa. His acquisition was aimed at improving the Royals’ lackluster outfield production. Unless the Royals add another bat to the mix, which is seeming less likely according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Collins is slated to be the starting left fielder in Kansas City.

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“The Kansas City Royals are increasingly unlikely to land either of the two hitters they pursued in trades: the St. Louis Cardinals’ Brendan Donovan and Boston Red Sox’s Jarren Duran.

Barring further moves, the Royals expect to rely heavily on offseason acquisitions Isaac Collins and Lane Thomas in their outfield, as well as rookie Jac Caglianone and holdover Kyle Isbel.

Though the Royals’ outfield production might remain below average, their infield of Vinnie Pasquantino, Jonathan India, Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia should again be one of the most productive in baseball, particularly if India bounces back.” - Ken Rosenthal

What can the Royals expect from Collins offensively? Below is a percentile summary of Isaac Collins, courtesy of TJStats.

Last season, Collins graded close to league average in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and expected batting average (xBA) while being below average in key slugging metrics such as expected slugging percentage (xSLG) and barrel percentage. None of these metrics looks particularly eye-catching, but if the Royals were able to have a league-average hitter in the outfield, they would have had an easier time generating runs on offense.

Despite his league-average expected metrics, Collins overachieved in 2025 with all of those key offensive metrics finishing above expectation. This is reflected in Collins’s wRC+ of 122 last season. But this may also explain his bearish 2026 projections on FanGraphs, which all predict a regression in wRC+ toward league average.

As discussed in an article earlier this week, Collins is not particularly skilled against left-handed pitchers with a near-league-average wRC+ of 106. If he can keep this up, he will still improve the Royals’ outfield offensive production.

A deeper look into Collins’s pitch-tracking data shows that he does his most damage against breaking balls, with 6 of his 9 home runs last year coming off them. Despite his increase in power against breaking balls, he is particularly more likely to swing and miss against breaking balls from left-handed pitchers, with his whiff rate at 38% compared to his season average (and better than league average) whiff rate of 22.5%. If Collins can increase his batted ball rates against breaking balls from lefties, that could go a long way in improving his overall production.

While Collins is not an exceptional power hitter, he makes up for it with plate discipline. His chase rate was in the 98th percentile in 2025, along with being in the 90th percentile in walks. As mentioned earlier, his whiff rate is better than average at the 63rd percentile, and his strikeout rate is right at league average. His on-base ability and plate discipline will be much valued for getting through the lineup more quickly, forcing longer at-bats versus pitchers, and getting to the bullpen earlier in games.

Another aspect of Collins that stands out in his Statcast data is that last season He was noticeably above league average in pulling fly balls into the air. With Kauffman Stadium announcing that it will be shortening the fences to left and right fields by 10 feet, this could have a positive impact on Collins' power output in Kauffman. Below are his spray charts against left-handed pitching (left) and right-handed pitching (right). And his fly ball success rate is much better (particularly against lefties) when pulling the ball. With closer walls, Collins could see a slight uptick in his home run production at Kauffman.

Overall, it will be interesting to see how Collins’s second season in the major leagues will pan out. While there are signs that his production may have been lucky last season, there are signs that he can still provide positive value for this Royals offense moving into 2026.