Can Pull Air Percentage Help Predict Royals Hitter Breakouts?

The Royals' offense has certainly been going through its fair share of struggles this season. Despite lofty expectations (some analysts claimed that Kansas City had the potential to be a Top-10 offense), they rank near the bottom of the league in most important offensive categories.

As of Friday, they rank 28th in runs scored, 25th in OPS and OBP, and 21st in home runs. The Royals do have other problems than their hitting, with their bullpen being another thorn in their sides to start the season. However, for Kansas City to make any ground in the AL Central race, the offense needs to start producing soon.

That being said, who are the hitters that can be depended upon for a turnaround? And which ones may have a hard time getting over their respective slow starts?

A key to distinguishing promising hitters from discouraging ones may lie in their respective Pull Air% numbers.

Why Pull Air% Is Important?

There are two reasons why pulling the ball in the air is important:

1. Statistically, pulling the ball in the air is often tied to more positive hitting outcomes, and 2. Pulling the ball would help the Royals take advantage of their new dimensions at Kauffman Stadium. 

Regarding the first point, here are some reasons why pulling the ball is important, drawn from a variety of sources, including MLB.com, Baseball Savant, and MLB Data Warehouse.

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Maximum Power & HRs: Roughly 37.3% of pulled fly balls are home runs, compared to only 9.2% to center and 4.6% to the opposite field 

Higher Bat Speed: Making contact in front of the body allows the bat to reach its highest speed. Pulled fly balls see +4 MPH higher swing speeds on average  

The "Air" Benefit: "Air" (lines drives/fly balls) is generally more productive than grounders. While only 17.5% of batted balls are pulled in the air, that small subset causes roughly 66% of all MLB home runs 
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Optimal Launch Angle: Pulling the ball often aligns with an upward swing plane, creating a better angle for driving the ball over the fence 

 

When hitters pull the ball, home runs, bat speed, launch angle, and ultimately, runs scored are all optimized. The Royals have actually demonstrated excellent bat speed this year, as their 72.4 MPH average ranks 5th in baseball, according to Fangraphs. Their average launch angle of 15.4 degrees ranks 6th this year, another encouraging sign.

Thus, pulling the ball in the air more will give them more opportunities for positive outcomes overall.

Regarding pulling the ball in the air to benefit the Royals at Kauffman Stadium, below are some of the dimension changes that occurred this offseason. These changes were done to help the ballpark be more "neutral", especially regarding home runs. 

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For the 2026 season, Kauffman Stadium has undergone significant, permanent, and "pro-hitter" modifications to its field dimensions. The outfield walls were moved in 9–10 feet and lowered to 8.5 feet, increasing home run potential and reducing the outfielders' ground to cover.

Thus, with lower and closer walls, the Royals should take advantage. And yet, Kansas City continues to struggle to hit home runs, even at home. They rank 22nd in HR/FB% at 8.8%. 

How Are the Royals Performing This Year in Pull Air%?

Ironically, the Royals are actually doing pretty well pulling the ball in the air, statistically. According to Savant, the Royals rank 9th in Pull Air% at 20.1%. Hence, the processes of this Royals offense overall are encouraging, but the results just haven't followed (especially in terms of home runs). 

Here is a look at the Royals' hitters individually this year, ranked by Pull Air%. It's interesting to see how they break down and rank, especially the key hitters in this lineup.

When it comes to Pull Air%, the Royals' hitters this season are all over the board. 

The top-four hitters in terms of Pull Air% are Michael Massey (36%), Nick Loftin (33.3%), Carter Jensen (29.2%), and Vinnie Pasquantino (28.4%). Of that group, only Jensen has demonstrated the most power production, as he leads the team in homers with six. Massey has shown some promise, as he is hitting .242 with a .712 OPS in 35 plate appearances. The same could be said of Loftin, who is hitting .235 with a .703 OPS in 20 plate appearances. As for Pasquantino, the results have been mediocre, as he has a 50 wRC+ in 109 plate appearances.

Other surprising names that are showing encouraging Pull Air% marks are Jonathan India (25.7%) and Lane Thomas (25%). However, after that, it seems like other Royals hitters are showing more concerns than promise when it comes to their ability to pull the ball in the air.

Four hitters stand out in particular for their Pull Air% rates: Maikel Garcia (19%), Salvador Perez (15.1%), Bobby Witt Jr. (14.5%), and Jac Caglianone (12.1%). All four hitters are expected to be major contributors to the lineup this year, especially when it comes to home run production. That said, they all rank in the lower half of Royals hitters in Pull Air%. 

What's concerning is that these four hitters are struggling to pull the ball in the air despite sporting either excellent bat speed or exit velocities. Thus, in theory, they should be able to pull the ball into the air with ease. Unfortunately, that doesn't happen, and the Royals' offense suffers, especially since many of those four hitters bat in key spots in the lineup. 

I was curious whether those four Royals hitters had seen gains or declines compared to the previous season. Thus, let's take a look at Royals hitters' batted-ball metrics, ranked by Pull Air% from 2025. I highlighted those four hitters on the table, just for context.

Garcia improved his Pull Air% from 16.2% to 19%, which is a step in the right direction. However, the other three have seen declines in Pull Air% from 2025 to 2026.

Salvy has dropped 11.5% in Pull Air% since 2025. Cags has dropped 3.8%, and Witt has dropped 1.3%. Perez's is the most alarming, since an 11.5% drop at age 36 signifies that Father Time has finally come for Salvy and his MLB career. It's disappointing, but it's somewhat expected at his age. 

Conversely, Cags and Bobby seeing regression at their ages and career points is a major concern, as they should be trending up, not down. For Witt and Cags to be a "bash brothers" combo in the middle of the lineup, they need to pull the ball more to take advantage of their incredible bat speed and exit velocity ability.

What to Take Away From This Pull Air% Data?

The issue with the Royals' hitters and their Pull Air% isn't just the rate itself. They rate pretty well in this category compared to the rest of the league. Thus, one would think that with that being the case, the Royals would be a productive offense, right?

However, while the overall Pull Air% is solid, they are getting poor Pull Air% from their key hitters, especially Perez, Witt, and Caglianone. It's hard for a Royals offense to be productive when three of their most important hitters rank below-average in Pull Air%, despite skills that should suggest otherwise (high EV, hard-hit rates, and bat speeds). 

On a positive note, I think Vinnie could snap out of his streak at some point, because he pulls the ball effectively. That approach will become more apparent when the weather gets hotter, a trend in Pasquantino's career. According to his career splits, his best HR/FB rates came in July (10.9%) and August (21.4%). Thus, when the weather gets hotter and the ball flies more (especially at Kauffman), then Vinnie will start to see more production, especially since he pulls the ball in the air so effectively.

As for Perez, Cags, and Witt, though? That's a tougher question.

Perez has at least demonstrated he can pull the ball in the air effectively in his career, with his 26.6% Pull Air% last year being a prime example. Cags hasn't pulled the ball much in the Majors so far, but he was much better at doing so in the Minors. Thus, he just may need more time to adapt to Major League pitching and get his timing and pitch recognition down. 

As for Bobby? His Pull Air% has gone from 17.1% in 2024, which is above the league average of 16.7%, to 15.8% last year and now 14.5% this season. Thus, it's not a surprise that Witt's home run total went from 32 in 2024 to 23 in 2025. He has yet to hit a home run this year.

If this Pull Air% trend continues, he'll be lucky to surpass the 20 HR mark. Witt is hitting the ball way too much to the middle of the field, which isn't a recipe for home run success, especially at Kauffman, even with the updated dimensions. 

Witt may be the biggest key to the Royals' offensive turnaround. For the Royals to be a playoff team, they need him to be a MVP-caliber hitter. That means a 300+ batting average, a 1.000+ OPS, and at least 30+ home runs. It's a lot to ask, but Witt has done it before, and he can do it again.

That is, if he gets his Pull Air% back up to at least slightly above league-average levels. 

Can he do it? There's still plenty of time to make the necessary adjustments to his mechanics and recognition, but he needs to figure something out quickly.