Philip Ruo

J.J. Picollo has been the Royals’ general manager since September 2021 and the president of baseball operations since September 2022. In that time, the Royals have managed to clinch their first playoff berth since winning the 2015 World Series and followed that performance with another winning season in 2025. However, 2026 has not panned out as expected, where the Royals have dug themselves a hole that will be tough to dig out of after the first two months of the season. Picollo deserves credit for bringing the Royals back to the playoffs in 2024 and building a strong rotation. However, he has failed to build a lineup that is a consistent threat in creating runs and doing damage against opposing pitchers, which has raised legitimate concerns about whether he is capable of building a sustainable contender. A poll here at Royals Keep shows that readers and fans are approving less of Picollo and the front office as the season has gone on. Is it time to make a change, or are the fans overreacting to the slow start? Initial approval was high to start the season, with approval peaking at just over 73% on April 6 & 7. On April 6, the Royals were 4-4. As the Royals entered their first rough stretch of the season, approval started to drop, and it hasn’t gone above 50% since April 18. After a few weeks of hovering around 50%, approval dropped again during the Royals' second rough stretch in May. As of May 27, the cumulative approval rating for the season sits at just 37%. The rapid decline in approval suggests fan frustration extends beyond a simple losing streak. Expectations for this roster were significantly higher entering 2026. According to the “MLB Hope-O-Meter” reported by Stephen Nesbitt of The Athletic on March 30, 94.5% of Royals fans were optimistic for the 2026 season, the fifth-highest mark across all 30 fan bases. The Case for Picollo As mentioned, Picollo has already shown that he can build a team in Kansas City that can challenge for playoff spots. The winning seasons of the past two years are examples of that. There have been some impactful signings, particularly in the rotation and back end of the bullpen. Player Acquisition Method bWAR Michael Wacha Free Agent (twice) 8.1 Cole Ragans Trade 7.5 Seth Lugo Free Agent 7.7 Lucas Erceg Trade 2.0 Wacha, Ragans, and Lugo (when healthy) can be one of the best tops of the rotation in baseball. Combined with the additions of Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert and the resurgence of Kris Bubic and Noah Cameron, this rotation had the potential to be exceptionally deep and strong from top to bottom. When looking at total bWAR accumulated by player acquisitions since Picollo became president of operations, additions to the rotation have carried the productivity, while the offensive additions have lagged behind. Last season’s addition of Carlos Estevez (more on him later) gave the Royals a strong back of the bullpen combination with Erceg. These are solid building blocks for any Major-League pitching staff. Another aspect that Picollo has excelled in is locking down the team’s homegrown talent and rewarding strong performers with contract extensions. He has ensured that the left side of the infield is patrolled by Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia for the foreseeable future, while Salvador Perez and Lugo have also been awarded extensions for their performance and leadership. However, Perez’s extension has not gotten off to a great start in 2026. The Case Against Picollo Many acquisitions to strengthen the lineup and middle relief have fallen flat. Below are the worst performers according to Baseball Reference. Player Acquisition Method bWAR Hunter Renfroe Free Agent -1.4 Bailey Falter Trade -1.3 Chris Stratton Free Agent -1.2 Jordan Lyles Free Agent -0.9 These further struggles have been highlighted by the fact that the acquisitions leading up to 2026 have only accumulated 0.2 bWAR this season. That figure looks even worse when the standout acquisition, third catcher Elias Diaz with 0.5 bWAR, was designated for assignment on May 22. The Royals entered 2026 expecting to contend, but their offseason additions have produced little impact through the season’s first two months. While the team’s prospects like Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen have taken the next step in becoming consistent contributors at the major-league level, their progress has been offset by the struggles of newcomers Isaac Collins, Lane Thomas, and Starling Marte, none of whom have performed above replacement-level this season. While Picollo was accurate in diagnosing the needs for the offense, the moves are currently not paying off. When you add in the poor starts from veterans like Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez, the lineup construction looks to be a disaster. Picollo’s acquisitions have been focused on improving the margins of the roster rather than targeting an impact bat to be the focal point of the lineup. This could be due to betting on the players like Caglianone or Jensen becoming that player, or the constraints from a small-market ownership group. Either way, it hasn’t worked in 2026. Complicating Factors Each season comes with roadblocks and challenges, and the Royals have faced a series of complications that have compounded. What started as a deep rotation with eight different starters with Major League experience has turned into a bit of a liability. Bergert has been shut down for the season to undergo Tommy John surgery. Falter spent time on the injured list and was designated for assignment on May 27 after five appearances in 2026. Ragans and Kris Bubic are currently on the injured list as well. The Royals are left with only four healthy starters, to the point where they have to consider bullpen games. There were many rumors that the depth in rotation was available to be able to trade for a boost to the lineup. While in hindsight, not trading away a starter looks to be the correct move, it was still a missed opportunity to improve their lineup by taking advantage of this surplus. Bullpen instability has been an issue this season. The health and velocity concerns of Estevez have rippled throughout the bullpen. It has forced Erceg, who has also regressed this season, into the closer role and left the Royals with no clear setup man. None of the offseason additions have been able to cement their role in this bullpen, and the team is exiting May with more questions than answers. The Royals are entering a pivotal point of the season. If they are unable to turn the season around, they will need to start looking at options to trade away players to increase their chances in 2027 and beyond. Ownership should be looking at these transactions closely to see if Picollo is the right man to take on the challenge of bringing the Royals back to winning baseball.

After a shaky season at the plate in 2025, the Royals have not made substantial progress offensively in 2026. Right now, the Royals sit at a wRC+ of 93, which is tied with the San Francisco Giants for 23rd in MLB. Alec Zumwalt has been the Royals’ Major League hitting coach and Senior Director of Hitting Performance since May 2022. Since 2021, the Royals’ team wRC+ has not been above league average, and excluding the playoff season in 2024, that mark has not risen above 93. The Royals also currently rank 26th in runs scored, and their runs per game average is down 3% from 2025, with the team averaging only 3.91 runs per game. Entering 2026, the Royals had aspirations of making the playoffs and pushing for the division title. After 53 games, roughly a third of the way through the season, the Royals sit nine games below .500 and nine games back in the AL Central. While the Royals’ situation is not great, there is still hope, as they are only four games back in the Wild Card race. Now could be the time to make a change to turn the season around. While many players have struggled to reach their expectations this season, there are a few metrics that could highlight the Royals' struggles could be rooted in hitting philosophy rather than poor individual performance. When looking at hitting performance in high-leverage situations, the Royals currently rank last with a wRC+ of 60. With runners in scoring position, the Royals also rank last with a wRC+ of 80. Since teams do not necessarily need power to drive in runs with runners in scoring position, it is also worth looking at runs per plate appearance in those situations, where the Royals rank 22nd. This offseason, the Royals also specifically targeted players with good plate discipline. Acquisitions Isaac Collins and Lane Thomas, in particular, graded well above-average in chase and walk rates. Those additions have helped the Royals improve their overall walk rate to 9.2% in 2026 from 7.2% in 2025, but that mark is still only the 17th-best in MLB this year. However, the Royals rank 12th in strikeout rate at 21.5%, which is notably up from last year’s mark of 18.2%. Another change that the Royals made this offseason was bringing in the fences by 10 feet in left and right fields. Have the Royals taken advantage of the shorter fences? The Royals this season rank 18th in home runs per plate appearance at home, which is up from ranking 27th last season. This is a notable improvement, which perhaps adds some perspective to the team’s lack of run creation. The Royals are still struggling to generate runs despite hitting more home runs at home. Right now, Bobby Witt Jr. is at his absolute peak and is having an MVP-level season. He currently leads MLB in both bWAR and fWAR. However, if you combine all Royals hitters, they equal Witt’s bWAR mark of 3.4. The Royals need to take better advantage of Witt during his prime, and a change in hitting philosophy could help spark that improvement. While it is difficult to place all of the blame on Zumwalt, it is definitely tough to see former Royals prospects like Ryan O’Hearn and Brent Rooker become all-star caliber players after struggling to make an imprint at the major league level in Kansas City. It is easy to come to the conclusion that the Royals are to blame for these players’ initial struggles in MLB. Ultimately, it is easier to fire a coach than replace multiple struggling players in the lineup, and a change in philosophy and perspective could be what this lineup needs to find its footing and turn the season around. With the Royals' offense remaining stagnant year-over-year, the Royals continue to risk wasting another precious year of Witt’s prime if they don't make a change soon.

On Friday, Royals manager Matt Quatraro submitted an extreme platoon lineup that included resting regulars Vinnie Pasquantino, Jac Caglianone, and Kyle Isbel against left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. While Pasquantino is off to a slow start this season, Caglianone has been around league average, and Isbel boasts the team’s second-highest wRC+ at 125. However, all three have had significant trouble hitting against left-handed pitching. Given that the Royals held the worst record in the American League entering that game, Quatraro turned to a platoon approach in an effort to spark a turnaround. When examining their splits against lefties, all three players exhibit significant drops in wRC+. Even Carter Jensen and Michael Massey (who probably wouldn’t have started at second base if Maikel Garcia or Jonathan India were fully healthy) both see significant drops in wRC+ when facing lefties. With the exception of Pasquantino, all of these players have performed well against right-handed pitchers. Against lefties, only Jensen is producing near league average, with the median wRC+ for left-handed hitters facing left-handed pitching sitting at 85. Massey stands out in particular, posting an extremely poor -33 wRC+ against lefties despite his success against right-handers. Given this level of production, it makes sense that Quatraro would lean toward a more right-handed lineup. Unfortunately, the Royals as a team have struggled against left-handed pitching regardless of who is batting. Following Saturday’s games, the Royals ranked fifth-worst in baseball against left-handed pitching with a 69 wRC+. If you look at just right-handed hitters, their rank is 17th overall with a 95 wRC+. This lack of run production has impacted the standings, with the Royals winning only two of their eight games against left-handed starters, the Friday and Sunday matchups against the Angels this weekend. Considering the Royals had not defeated a left-handed starter prior to this weekend, Quatraro’s extreme platoon usage is understandable. However, a less aggressive version of the platoon was deployed in Sunday’s lineup against left-hander Reid Detmers with Pasquantino keeping his place at first base. Extreme platoons come with drawbacks. Some players thrive on the consistency of everyday playing time. Pasquantino, for example, appeared in 160 games last season and is not accustomed to frequent rest. Then there’s Caglianone, who is in his first full major-league season, and gaining experience against left-handed pitching will be critical to his long-term development. There is also the question of keeping your best players in the lineup. Pasquantino and Caglianone are foundational pieces of the roster, and ideally, they would be producing across a full 162-game season. Giving them rest definitely signals that struggling players are not fully guaranteed to start every day, even if they represent the foundation of the lineup. In the offseason, the Royals’ front office attempted to address this issue, particularly in the outfield. The Royals specifically targeted an everyday outfielder and someone who could platoon in right field. Isaac Collins, a switch-hitter, was brought in to be the everyday left fielder, and Starling Marte and Lane Thomas were signed to provide right-handed depth behind Isbel and Caglianone. How have those players fared so far against lefties? Of the acquired players, only Thomas is providing above-average run creation against left-handed pitching. Collins, despite being a switch hitter, has had more success in his career batting from the left-handed side of the plate. Marte, meanwhile, has done better against right-handed pitching (though only nine PAs against righties). If Marte’s performance against lefties continues to lag, the Royals might consider starting Caglianone full-time if he continues to outpace his platoon partner in wRC+. Caglianone also showed his potential against left-handed pitching with a game-tying home run against Drew Pomeranz in the ninth inning. On April 19th, the Royals called up veteran catcher Elías to help bolster the production against lefties. This move allows Salvador Perez to shift to first base and adds another right-handed bat to the lineup. Díaz has started strong, going 3-for-6 with a walk and two doubles in his first two starts against left-handed pitching. Ideally, this platoon option serves as a short-term solution while Pasquantino works through his struggles. If Díaz continues to produce, he could provide valuable roster flexibility. Nick Loftin has also been a welcome addition to the lineup after Jonathan India was placed on the injured list on April 20. In his 10 plate appearances against lefties so far this season, his 136 wRC+ is outpacing India’s 67. Going forward, how should the Royals proceed? Quatraro has certainly signaled that he will continue to platoon his lineup. As long as the left-handed hitters continue to struggle offensively, he might feel like there are few alternatives. However, he will need to balance short-term optimization with long-term development and lineup consistency. After a sweep of the Angels last weekend, the offense might finally be starting to turn a corner. Even at 11–17, the Royals sit just three games out of a Wild Card spot and 3.5 games back in the division. The season is far from over, but if this surge is temporary, the Royals may need to explore additional, potentially external, solutions to remain in the playoff picture.

Going into Tuesday’s game against the Orioles, the Royals were on an eight-game losing streak and held the worst record in baseball at 7-16. While they were able to snap the skid, they returned to the loss column in Wednesday’s series finale against Baltimore. With the Royals now sitting at 8–17 and last in the American League, which players are helping push the team forward, and which are still searching for answers? Who's Hot? 🔥 Bobby Witt Jr. Witt, unsurprisingly, leads the Royals hitters in bWAR so far with 1.3. Despite the team’s struggles at the plate, Witt had a solid week with a slash line of .304/.370/.391. You could argue that Witt is still waiting to hit his stride in 2026. His marks for batting average, slugging percentage, and wOBA are significantly under their expected values, showing signs that he has been “unlucky” to start the season. He leads the team in walks, OBP, and steals, but scored the fewest runs among all Royals qualified hitters. Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez have so far failed to drive in Witt when he is able to get on base, limiting his impact on the basepaths. Once they each can get out of their early-season slumps, Witt will be on base and ready to score. Seth Lugo Lugo leads the team in bWAR overall at 1.4. On Monday, he delivered a dominant outing, seven scoreless innings on one hit and four walks. Unfortunately, the offense provided minimal support, and the Royals ultimately lost to the Orioles in 12 innings. Lugo once again has a deep pitching arsenal with nine different pitches thrown this season (and he hasn’t yet thrown his splitter). His curveball and slider have particularly stood out with Stuff+ of 104 and 103, respectively, according to TJStats. In 2026, Lugo is preventing hitters from pulling the ball in the air with a rate of only 11.5%. In addition to his lowered hard-hit rate compared to last season. Together, these trends point to strong run prevention and limited power allowed. Lugo is slated to make his next start on Sunday against the Angels, where he will look to continue his excellent early-season form. Carter Jensen Jensen had a solid week at the plate with a slash line of .467/.619/.933. Going into Wednesday’s game, Jensen led all qualified Royals hitters with a 133 wRC+, and he added more production, going 2 for 3 with another home run. Jensen is continuing to build on the level of production he displayed in his last-season call-up in 2025. While there is still room to improve his game, namely his contact and strikeout rates, he is providing a spark in the Royals lineup that is otherwise missing. With Perez continuing to struggle offensively, Jensen might find more time behind the plate rather than just hitting in the DH spot. Who's Not? 🧊 Alex Lange Lange had a couple of tough outings this past week, allowing the winning run to score in his first two appearances. While he has not been brought on to protect leads, he was called upon twice in tied games and was unable to keep the Royals in a position to win. On Friday, he was tasked with facing the middle of the Yankees’ order in a tied game. While he was able to retire the first two hitters of the inning, he allowed a single and a home run before getting out of the inning, putting the Royals down two runs going into the 8th inning. On Monday, he entered the 11th inning in a tied game with the automatic runner on second. Lange struggled to get the Orioles hitters out, allowing two singles and a walk before giving up a home run, which effectively ended the game. While it is difficult to enter a game in those circumstances, if Lange had limited the damage to only one run, he could have preserved the chance for the Royals to make a comeback. Lange has been particularly susceptible to hard contact this season. Opponents are averaging 93.8 mph exit velocity against him, with a 20.8% barrel rate (1st percentile) and a 58.3% hard-hit rate (2nd percentile). Lange excels at striking batters out and inducing whiffs; however, when batters have been making contact against Lange, they often do damage. Lange rebounded with an improved performance against the Orioles on Wednesday with a clean inning and no baserunners allowed. Noah Cameron Cameron struggled on Saturday, allowing seven runs (five earned) over four innings of work. He allowed seven hits, three of which were home runs, two walks, and posted a 59% hard-hit rate. Cameron was able to get out of the first two innings unscathed before the floodgates opened up in the third inning. He has now suffered back-to-back outings allowing five earned runs after only allowing one earned run in each of his first two starts of the season. A concerning trend is now emerging of Cameron being susceptible to hard hits and many fly balls. In 2025, Cameron excelled at inducing soft contact ground balls. In 2026, while his overall contact rate is similar, the quality of contact has worsened significantly, with more barrels and fewer ground balls. If Cameron wants to repeat his success from his rookie season, he will need to limit the hard contact, and he will get a chance to bounce back at his next start on Friday against the Angels. Isaac Collins Collins continues to struggle offensively, going 2 for 18 in the past week. Collins was given the day on Wednesday off in favor of Lane Thomas despite right-handed Chris Bassitt starting for Baltimore. He suffered a right knee contusion that he had sustained the previous week in Detroit. Even though he has played four games since the injury, this could have been a scheduled day off for maintenance. There has been much reported on Collins’s tough start in Kansas City. He has displayed uneven offensive metrics and a defensive regression in left field. There is still time for Collins to bounce back, but with many of the Royals' hitters also struggling for consistency, a resurgence from Collins could go a long way in helping the Royals turn the corner.

It is now halfway through April in the MLB season. Teams have started to fully take shape, and trends are beginning to emerge. The Royals are still looking to find their stride, particularly on offense, with a 7-11 record before game action on Thursday. Let’s take a look at who has been hot and who is still looking to find their stride in the early stages of the 2026 season. Who's Hot? 🔥 Michael Wacha Wacha has had an excellent start to his 2026 campaign, and his last start on Saturday was no exception. Wacha pitched for eight innings, striking out seven batters while only allowing five baserunners. After that start, his season ERA is down to 0.43 with a WHIP of 0.714 in 21 innings pitched. In his three starts this season, Wacha has excelled in getting hitters to whiff at and chase the ball out of the strike zone. So far, his chase rate is up from 28.2% to 34.3% this season, and his whiff rate is up from 21.3% to 29.5%. Wacha’s changeup has been his best pitch so far, with a Stuff+ of 131 according to Fangraphs. His changeup has been especially helpful against left-handed batters, where he throws it just as often as his fastball. This has helped him hold lefties to a slash line of only .128/.212/.21,3 which are currently better than his marks against right-handed batters. Wacha will look to continue his strong form against the Yankees on Friday. Kris Bubic Bubic has also seen success on the mound to start the season. On Friday, Bubic threw seven innings with 11 strikeouts while only allowing three baserunners. After that performance, Bubic’s season ERA is now 2.50 across 18 innings with a WHIP of 0.833. Bubic’s Stuff+, according to TJStats, has been excellent with a 102 overall Stuff+ and only his sinker grading below average. Like Wacha, Bubic has also seen an increase in chase and whiff rates to start the season. His chase rate is sitting at 32.4%, and his whiff rate is at 37.6%, in the 98th percentile of all pitchers this season. His slider has stood out so far, forcing batters to whiff 63.6% of the time. Bubic is also set to appear against the Yankees this Thursday, where he will look to set the tone in quieting the often loud bats of the Bronx Bombers. Jac Caglianone Caglianone had a strong week, going 5-for-15 with a slash line of .333/.389/.600. He also showed some skill in the field with an outfield assist, throwing out Zach McKinstry at the plate on Wednesday. Caglianone is showing strong improvements at the plate compared to his rookie season. Last season, he was relatively unlucky for his batted-ball profile, and the numbers are starting to reflect his expected marks from 2025. He is excelling at hitting the ball hard with an average exit velocity of 93.1 mph, a barrel rate of 12.9%, and a hard-hit rate over 50%. If Caglianone can make consistent contact, he will continue to grow into being a threat in the Royals' lineup. He has also made great strides in his defensive ability. Last season, Caglianone was worth a -7 fielding run value, and so far, he is posting a positive number in 2026. Both his range and arm value are now grading well above average. Adding this improvement to his strides in batting, Caglianone is becoming a well-rounded player. Who's Not? 🧊 Vinnie Pasquantino Speaking of not being able to drive in Witt, Pasquantino has not had the ideal start to his 2026 season. Pasquantino finally recorded a hit, a triple, on Wednesday to end a 0-for-20 spell. His season slash line is down to .152/.234/.197. After finishing second in total bases for the Royals in 2025 (behind only Witt), Pasquantino has only two extra-base hits this season. Pasquantino has also seen a noticeable dip in his bat speed of above three mph, and his exit velocity has suffered in the process. These are definitely concerning signs for his power potential to do damage in the heart of the Royals’ batting order. Going into the season, Pasquantino was presumed to be the default hitter to be the source of power to drive in Witt and Maikel Garcia when they reach base, and so far, Pasquantino has failed to do so. Until Pasquantino is able to find his groove at the plate, the Royals' offense will likely continue to flounder. Nick Mears Mears has had a week to forget. In his two appearances this week, he has two blown saves, resulting in two losses this week (only one of which was changed to him). The “blown save” designation is a bit misleading. While he did not come in his games in a traditional save opportunity, Mears was on the mound when the team lost its lead. On Sunday, Mears was brought in during the 6th inning after Noah Cameron had loaded the bases with one out and a one-run lead. Mears was able to get out of the inning without allowing too much damage, but he did allow one walk, which brought home the tying run. On Tuesday, Mears was tasked with pitching the eighth inning with a 1-0 lead. He allowed two critical doubles. One was to Gelyber Torres, who eventually scored on a wild pitch, and the other was to Dillon Dingler, who drove in the eventual winning run. Mears had otherwise had a decent start to the season before this week, where he had not yet allowed any runs to score, including inherited runners. The Royals will look for Mears to bounce back from these performances if they want to continue to turn to him in high-leverage situations, especially with Carlos Estevez still on the injured list. Salvador Perez Perez has struggled at the plate this past week, going 3 for 22 with seven strikeouts. His season slash line is now down to .149/.208/.269. His batting run value ranks in the 4th percentile among qualified hitters this season. Perez is still the captain of this team, but in his current form, the Royals may start to consider if it is time to move him down in the lineup.

Last season, Isaac Collins was an average fielder with 0 fielding run value (FRV) and grading in the 56th percentile. This season, Collins already sits at -3 FRV and is at the bottom of the rankings. What has changed? Below is a chart showing Collins’s percentile ranks in key defensive metrics: range, sprint speed, arm strength (not yet qualified in 2026), and arm value. While Collins’s sprint speed has actually increased since last year, rising from 27.7 to 28.3 feet per second, his range has dropped significantly. Last season, Collins was worth +4 outs above average (OAA). This season, however, he is already at -3 OAA. This decline in range is the primary driver of his drop in FRV. When breaking down his range, Collins has had a particularly difficult time when he has to move laterally towards the third-base side, where all of his negative OAA has come from. In his nine attempts moving that direction laterally, he has seen a success rate of only 44% compared to an estimated rate of 77%. Collins did have back/left side tightness that delayed his start to spring training, which may be contributing to these lateral movement issues. What’s Driving the Decline? In terms of positioning, Collins has not been used out of the ordinary. According to Statcast, all 30 of Collins’s fielding attempts have been classified as “straight up” rather than being positioned toward the gap or foul line. However, his positioning has been shallower in left field with the Royals compared to his time in Milwaukee. The view below highlights his average position with the Royals in red, and his previous two years with the Royals in green. Collins had an average depth of 289 feet in 2026 with the Royals, compared to an average depth of 306 feet last season with the Brewers. Even after moving in the fences, Kauffman Stadium has a deeper left-center field (379 ft) than American Family Field in Milwaukee (371 ft). Despite him playing shallower, he is performing as expected in four attempts, going back with a success rate of 75% versus an estimated success rate of 74%. If his positioning is not noticeably contributing to his value, where else could the problem be? Jump and Route Efficiency In 2026, Isaac Collins ranks 33rd out of 46 qualified outfielders in overall jump. His initial reaction is good, ranking third with 3.5 feet covered above average in the first 1.5 seconds. His burst is closer to average, with 0.3 feet covered above MLB average in the 1.5-second burst after the initial reaction. The issue lies with his routes. Collins ranks last in route with 4.8 fewer feet covered against the direct, optimal path, over a foot worse than the second-worst outfielder. Even though his reaction and burst times are good, his inefficient routes to the ball make him below average for overall outfield jump, with 0.9 fewer feet covered than average. Considering that he is starting on average 17 feet closer to the infield for his positioning, he may need time to adjust his routes to fit his new starting position. Though his inefficient routes are not new for Collins. In 2025, he ranked 92nd out of 93 qualified outfielders in route efficiency. While his 2025 mark was not great, he was only 2.1 feet less than average last season, much less severe than his current mark. His reaction and burst distances were also slightly better in 2025 to help offset his poor route efficiency. His reaction was 4 feet above average, and his burst was 1.4 feet above average. Lack of Conversions on Difficult Plays Finally, Collins has yet to record a “2+ Star” out (balls with a catch probability of 90% or lower) in 2026 in nine attempts. In 2025, Collins was able to record outs on 51.9% of difficult catches to add meaningful value in Milwaukee’s outfield. While Collins is able to catch the more probable opportunities, he has yet to make an impact in Kansas City in stopping the more difficult fly balls. Potential Health Concerns It is also worth noting that Collins fought a variety of injuries this offseason. He received “platelet-rich plasma injections in both of his knees” in the offseason to address tendinitis in his knees. Add that to his tightness from spring training, Collins has a variety of potentially nagging issues that could impact his fielding, despite his increased sprint speed so far. While there has not been a recent report addressing any health concerns, it is worth considering if these injuries have carried into the regular season. Conclusion There is a lot of time left in the season for Collins to turn the corner for his fielding run value. Getting more reps will help him continue to gain familiarity with the spacious Kauffman Stadium outfield. If he can improve his range, particularly in his route efficiency and lateral movement, his defensive value will improve, and Royals pitchers will be grateful.

How has the outfield addition fared in his first season in Kansas City so far? Isaac Collins’s start to 2026 has looked very different from his 2025 performance. So far in 2026, Collins has a slash line of .171/.310/.286 with an 83 wRC+, a decline from his 2025 marks of .263/.368/.323 with a 122 wRC+. In 2025, Collins graded in the 62nd percentile in batting run value and is currently in the 53rd percentile for 2026. However, the route to getting that value has been different this year compared to last season. Collins already has three barrels in 21 batted balls, only a couple of weeks into 2026. In 2025, Collins only barreled the ball 14 times all season. Does this suggest that Collins is finding his power swing in Kansas City? Despite the increase in barrel rate, Collins has seen declines in hard-hit rate, launch angle sweet-spot rate, and average exit velocity. These trends suggest his overall power profile may not be improving as much as the barrel rate alone indicates. It is important to call out that the Royals likely did not acquire Collins for his power hitting. They got him for his plate discipline and his on-base ability. In 2025, Collins boasted an xwOBA of .322 and showed elite plate discipline with a chase rate of 18.4% (98th percentile) and a walk rate of 12.9% (90th percentile). He also graded above average in whiff and strikeout rates. However, in 2026, Collins has been less consistent at the plate. While his walk rate has increased slightly to 14.3%, his chase rate has also risen to 19.6%. More concerning, his whiff and strikeout rates have jumped significantly from 22.5% and 21.1% to 30.9% and 33.3%, respectively. These changes have negatively impacted his on-base profile, reflected in a drop to a .259 xwOBA. In light of his start, what do his other metrics show about the outlook for the rest of the season? One notable trend is that Collins’s results have slightly outperformed his expected metrics. Metric Actual Expected wOBA .288 .259 AVG .143 .171 SLG .286 .253 If Collins is hitting below average in many categories, then why is his batting run value in the 53rd percentile? According to Baseball Savant, “Every pitch is assigned a run value based on its outcome (ball, strike, home run, etc.). The sum of all of a player's contributions across a season… measures his overall batting or pitching run value. A positive value represents runs created for hitters, and runs prevented for pitchers.” These run values are grouped into pitch locations: heart, shadow, chase, and waste. Collins so far has a positive batting run value in the chase and waste zones, meaning that his plate discipline has positively contributed to the Royals' run production, and it has offset his negative value in the heart and shadow zones. Zone Run Value Heart -1 Shadow -2 Chase 2 Waste 1 It is worth noting that only the elite hitters register positive values in the heart and shadow zones; only three batters had positive run values in both zones in 2025. Another positive sign is that Collins has increased his bat speed from 72.7 mph in 2025 to 73.6 mph in 2026. While bat speed itself is not necessarily indicative of positive production, increased bat speed can contribute to faster exit velocity and more power potential. Collins has also been pulling the ball in the air more often in 2026. His pull air rate has increased to 19.1% in 2026. Pulling the ball in the air greatly increases the chances of home runs, especially when paired with a high barrel rate. If Collins can continue his increase in barrel and pull air rates, his home run and power potential will increase in 2026. Conclusion Isaac Collins’s profile is still the same in 2026 as it was in 2025. He still has the ability to draw walks and avoid chasing balls out of the zone, but his contact and strikeout rates have trended in the wrong direction to start the season. His hard contact has been “feast or famine” with a decrease in hard hit rate and average exit velocity despite barreling the ball at a much larger rate. While his metrics show that he has over-achieving expectations, Collins has shown decent signs of overall run value at the plate. There are signs of growth in power potential, but also clear areas of concern in contact ability. There is still plenty of time for Collins to fully hit his stride in 2026. With a losing record so far, the Royals will need his on-base skills to improve sooner rather than later.