The Case For Michael Massey To Lead Off Against Right-Handed Pitchers

Over the past few weeks, the manager Matt Quatraro has been shuffling around his lineup. Maikel Garcia has not led off for the Royals since May 27, partially to place him in the heart of the batting order, and partially due to a hamstring injury. Since May 27, Quatraro has favored Carter Jensen to lead off against right-handed pitchers and Lane Thomas against left-handed pitchers. However, Jensen has been slumping lately, and it could be time to shake up the order yet again. As the Royals sit near the bottom of the AL Wild Card standings, every lineup decision can make a huge impact on the season and stay in the win column.

Jensen has seen a drop in weighted on-base average (wOBA) since late April. His current expected wOBA (xwOBA) is sitting at .267 (6th percentile), but his last 100 plate appearances show that his current form is even worse than that at .224. For reference, the median xwOBA among qualified hitters in MLB is .322. After a strong start, Jensen’s overall run creation is below league average with an 80 wRC+.

Michael Massey is a contender to claim the leadoff spot from Jensen against right-handed pitching. Across a smaller sample of plate appearances, his xwOBA and wRC+ are both higher than Jensen’s at .281 and 98, respectively. 

When looking at splits against right-handed pitchers, Massey’s metrics jump up to a .320 wOBA and 99 wRC+. Jensen’s split metrics do not improve significantly with a .295 wOBA and an 82 wRC+. While Jensen’s on-base ability has been on the decline, Massey’s has been on the upswing.

Massey also brings some experience as a leadoff hitter. He has 80 career plate appearances from the leadoff spot, though he hasn’t featured in that spot since 2024. His career slash line leading off is .233/.288/.411, which is slightly better than his career averages. 

Massey is far from the perfect leadoff hitter. His current on-base percentage of .283 is less ideal. His baserunning does not stand out in particular. His sprint speed is below average in the 37th percentile. He has only one stolen base attempt this season and has been thrown out more often than he advances when trying to take the extra base on the basepaths. If Massey can‘t improve his baserunning, he could be a frustrating fixture on the bases with stars like Bobby Witt Jr. at the plate.

While his wOBA is on the upswing, Massey’s pure on-base ability does not necessarily impress, and a lack of walks could become an issue at the top of the order. While his OBP of .283 against righties is an improvement on Jensen’s mark of .281, Massey has a team-low walk rate of 3.4%. If Quatraro values walks and plate discipline from his leadoff hitter, it might be worthwhile to explore Isaac Collins and his 14% walk rate.

Why not stick to Garcia as the leadoff hitter? Against right-handed pitching, Garcia's 76 wRC+ has not been as productive as Massey's 95 wRC+. Garcia’s production could be better used in the middle of the order, protecting Witt in the order. With the regression from Salvador Perez, Garcia provides a rare right-handed bat that can produce in the heart of the order every day. 

While Massey does not represent the prototypical leadoff hitter, he represents an improvement in form compared to Jensen, who is slumping. Until Jensen shows signs of breaking out of his slump, Massey appears to be the strongest candidate to lead off against right-handed pitching.