What to Make of Noah Cameron's Recent Turnaround?

[Kevin O'Brien]

Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

It's been a peculiar sophomore season for Royals left-handed pitcher Noah Cameron. 

In 22 appearances (21 starts) and 123.2 IP, the St. Joseph, Missouri product is posting a 4.37 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 3.73 FIP, and a 2.1 fWAR. While his ERA is worse than a year ago (2.99 ERA in 2025), his fWAR is higher (1.8 last year) in fewer innings (138.1 IP). He is also striking out more batters (22.0% K% this year, 20.5% in 2025), walking fewer (7.6% BB% this year to 7.7% in 2025), while sporting better control overall (14.4% K-BB% in 2026 to 12.8% in 2025). 

It hasn't been a perfect improvement for Cameron in 2026.

While the overall numbers are better, he is getting hit harder than a year ago. His barrel rate allowed has climbed from 6.3% to 8.7%, his average exit velocity allowed has gone from 87.8 MPH to 89.1 MPH, and his hard-hit rate allowed has gone from 37.4% to 38.3%. Those batted-ball metrics are a big reason why his ERA was 4.89 before the All-Star Break, compared to 2.57 after the Midsummer Classic. 

Since the All-Star Break, Cameron has been on a heater, especially in his past three starts. Over that three-game span, he has posted historic numbers, going seven or more innings in each outing (including two in which he went eight). 

So what has been the key to Cameron's turnaround in the second half? A primary factor has been his switch to calling his own pitches, which has changed his pitch mix and made him more effective. 

Which then begs Royals fans to ask: Should more Royals pitchers, especially non-veteran ones, follow Cameron's lead?

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Breaking Down Cameron's Pitch Mix Changes

After a tough July 19th start against the Padres in which he gave up seven runs on nine hits in five innings of work, Cameron seemed intent on making changes, as did the Royals coaching staff. Not only did he have an Opener in his next start against Detroit, but he also decided to begin calling his own pitches. 

Here are some details about that process in a recent piece from MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers. 

Quote

Beck Way opened against the Tigers, throwing the first inning, but Cameron was dominant that night, as he went seven scoreless innings to complete the game. He revealed after the game that he decided to call his own pitches, insistent that it had nothing to do with his catchers; he just wanted to take control from the mound.

Everyone was on board, and if they weren’t right away, they are now; Cameron’s conviction on the mound is undeniable, and it has a lot to do with calling his own game.

“If this was a different guy who didn’t do his homework like Noah does – he’s very prepared,” pitching coach Brian Sweeney said. “And a man convicted on the mound is a man I want throwing the baseball.”

After his July 19th start against San Diego, Cameron was sporting a 5.27 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Here's what his pitching summary looked like from the beginning of the season until his July 24th start against the Tigers.

As Royals fans can see, Cameron leaned heavily on his four-seamer, as evidenced by his 27.8% usage on the pitch. Unfortunately, it was not an effective pitch, both on a TJ Stuff+ end (91) and a swing-and-miss end (17.2% whiff rate). Overall, most of his metrics were mediocre, with his zone rate (48.1%), chase rate (28%), whiff rate (24.4%), and xwOBACON (.417) all profiling as below average. He had some pitches that profiled as above average: his changeup (102) and slider (102), but the rest of his repertoire was middling, as evidenced by his 97 overall TJ Stuff+. 

In his last three starts, here's Cameron's pitching summary via TJ Stats.

Obviously, the results have been incredible. While the zone rate still rates as below average (44%), his chase rate (35.1%), whiff rate (33.3%), and xwOBACON (.260) have all been elite. He's improved his overall TJ Stuff+ by two points. And what has been the primary reason? A change in the pitch mix.

Cameron is only throwing the four-seamer 18% of the time, a 9.8% drop from earlier in the year. It has gone from his most-thrown pitch to his third-most-thrown offering. On the flip side, he's increased his cutter usage by 1.7%, his changeup usage by 0.7%, and his curveball usage by 0.7%.

The biggest increase, however? His slider, which he has thrown 16.3% of the time in his last three starts. Previously, he only threw the slider 9.2% of the time. With the increased slider usage has come more effectiveness with the breaking pitch. Over these past three starts, he's generating a 50% chase and whiff rate, as well as a .253 xwOBACON. Thus, he's not only getting chase and whiffs needed with the pitch, but minimizing hard contact with the offering as well. That's a recipe for success. 

To dive deeper into his slider, here's a look at his slider swing-and-miss rolling percentage, which correlates with his increase in usage since the All-Star Break. 

In April and May, his slider had whiff rates under 20 and 25 percent, respectively. In July? That whiff rate was over 50 percent. He's only had one start in August, but it still is impressive at around 45 percent. 

What's also interesting is that with the decrease in four-seam usage, it has become a more effective swing-and-miss offering. Here's a look at his four-seam whiff rate rolling chart this year via Savant.

The four-seamer whiff rate regressed in May and June before seeing a slight bump in July and then experienced a major spike in August. As stated before, it's only one start, but his 25% four-seamer whiff rate is better than the 20% he posted in April with the fastball. It will be interesting to see whether using his four-seamer less will not only make his other pitches more effective but also make the four-seamer itself more effective, as illustrated by this rolling chart data. 

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Issues With Jensen Behind the Plate?

Now, according to Rogers' article, Cameron isn't calling EVERY pitch. He has been challenged to throw other offerings by the catcher, specifically Salvador Perez, who's caught his last three appearances. 

Here's an example of this in Rogers' article. 

Quote

Cameron added that the pitch calling has more to do with his mentality than the actual game plan; his style hasn’t changed, and he and the catchers are all on the same page. If a catcher feels particularly strong about a pitch, Cameron wants them to call it. Salvador Perez has caught all three of Cameron’s recent appearances and only called a different pitch twice. On July 30 in Minnesota, Cameron wanted to throw a slider to Alex Jackson, but Perez wanted a changeup because Jackson’s swings didn’t look good on any of Cameron’s previous changeups. Sure enough: Strikeout swinging on a changeup.

On Wednesday against the Twins, Cameron thought about a two-strike fastball to Austin Martin in the eighth inning, but Perez insisted on a slider. Sure enough: Strikeout swinging on a slider.

Two things that stood out to me are: 1) There's some flexibility in Cameron's pitch-calling system, and 2) Perez has been the primary catcher during Cameron's bounce-back. Thus, I became curious about Cameron's pitcher splits this year with different catchers.

Here's what the data says, per Baseball-Reference. 

By Catcher

Split	G	IP	ER	ERA	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
Elias Díaz	3	15.2	10	5.74	75	67	9	21	6	1	0	0	0	8	15	1.88	.313	.387	.433	.820	29	1	0	0	0	0	1	.404	133	116
Carter Jensen	9	47.0	31	5.94	203	188	33	52	7	1	12	1	4	11	37	3.36	.277	.312	.516	.828	97	2	0	1	3	0	4	.282	129	114
Luke Maile	2	10.0	8	7.20	52	44	8	15	4	0	1	2	0	7	8	1.14	.341	.423	.500	.923	22	0	0	0	1	0	0	.389	161	91
Salvador Perez	8	51.0	11	1.94	197	177	12	31	10	0	1	1	1	14	56	4.00	.175	.246	.249	.495	44	4	3	2	1	1	0	.248	41	31

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/8/2026.

Cameron has had nine starts with Jensen this year and eight starts with Salvy. And yet, the St. Joseph product has been significantly better with Perez.

With Jensen, the lefty has a 5.94 ERA and has allowed 12 home runs in 47 IP. With Perez, Cameron has a 1.94 ERA and has only allowed ONE home run. Yep. When Jensen has been behind the plate, the 27-year-old pitcher has given up 11 more home runs in four fewer innings. The OPS with Jensen (.828) is also significantly higher than the OPS with Perez (.495). 

Interestingly enough, there doesn't seem to be a clear pattern with Jensen and other "younger" pitchers who likely don't call their own pitches (veterans like Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo do). 

I looked up Luinder Avila and Stephen Kolek, two younger Royals pitchers who have had success this year (though both are out for a while due to Tommy John surgery). Interestingly enough, they had the inverse splits with Jensen behind the plate.

Here's a look at Avila. 

By Catcher

Split	G	IP	ER	ERA	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
Elias Díaz	1	2.0	2	9.00	9	7	2	2	0	0	0	2	0	2	2	1.00	.286	.444	.286	.730	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	.400	86	99
Carter Jensen	12	46.0	15	2.93	186	163	15	38	10	1	3	0	2	18	40	2.22	.233	.310	.362	.672	59	5	1	2	2	0	0	.287	68	78
Luke Maile	1	4.1	3	6.23	21	17	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	4	2	0.50	.235	.381	.294	.675	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	.267	71	44
Salvador Perez	7	17.2	23	11.72	93	74	22	27	6	0	4	2	3	18	17	0.94	.365	.495	.608	1.103	45	1	1	0	0	0	0	.434	175	189

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/8/2026.

With Jensen, Avila posted a 2.93 ERA, a 2.22 K/BB ratio, and a .672 OPS in 46 IP. The Venezuelan righty had fewer innings with his fellow countryman at 17.2 IP. That said, the numbers were much worse. With Salvy behind the plate, Avila had an 11.72 ERA, 1.103 OPS, and 0.64 K/BB ratio. 

Now, let's take a look at Kolek.

By Catcher

Split	G	IP	ER	ERA	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
Carter Jensen	5	29.0	9	2.79	113	108	10	26	4	1	2	1	0	5	16	3.20	.241	.274	.352	.626	38	3	0	0	0	0	0	.267	68	64
Salvador Perez	5	25.0	18	6.48	111	102	20	29	7	1	6	2	0	7	18	2.57	.284	.342	.549	.891	56	4	2	0	0	0	3	.295	134	130

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/8/2026.

Kolek had a more split breakdown, with five starts being with both catchers. However, with Jensen, the 29-year-old posted a 2.79 ERA, 3.20 K/BB ratio, and .626 OPS. With Salvy, he had a 6.48 ERA, 2.57 K/BB ratio, and .891 OPS. 

Thus, the issues with Cameron and Jensen may have been more of a chemistry issue than an indictment of Jensen's game-calling abilities. 

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What to Expect With Cameron

The Royals right now are extremely thin with starting pitching. Avila and Kolek recently underwent Tommy John surgery and will be out for a good while in 2027. Cole Ragans had elbow surgery and won't be back until the middle of 2027. Ryan Bergert and prospect Ben Kudrna also underwent surgery and will have limited availability at the start of 2027.

Thus, even with Wacha and Lugo returning, the Royals need a healthy and effective Cameron to get back into contention in 2027. 

Now, Cameron can't be the third-best Royals starting pitcher next year. He needs to be a No. 4 or 5 starter for the Royals to turn things around and compete for a playoff spot again after such a dreadful season in 2026. If the Royals don't acquire a starting pitcher or two via free agency or trade, then it's unlikely that the Royals will be much better in 2027. 

However, the past month has demonstrated what Cameron can do when he's locked in and has made the proper adjustments. He's a smart pitcher, and fans can't question his work ethic. Many pitchers would've continued doing the same thing despite persistent bad results. And yet, Cameron followed the Kris Bubic path here rather than the Brady Singer one (Singer was known for being stubborn and slow to change, especially with his pitch mix). 

Cameron has shown manager Matt Quatraro and Royals President JJ Picollo that he can be part of the Royals' future rotation.

Let's hope that he can continue to make adjustments down the stretch this season. Opposing hitters are now familiarizing themselves with changes to his pitch repertoire and making adjustments. 

How Cameron fares against those expected hitter adjustments could determine what the Royals can expect from the lefty next season. 

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