The Royals' Offense Has Not Been the Problem in June

[Kevin O'Brien]

Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

 

It's been a rough season for the Royals, as they sit in second-to-last place in the AL Central at 32-45, as of June 19th. There has been plenty for Royals fans to complain about this year, especially considering the optimistic expectations with this team after an 82-80 campaign in 2025. 

Barring something dramatic, Kansas City will likely suffer its first losing season since 2023, when it lost 106 games, tying a franchise record (which also happened in 2006). The Royals have been a bit snakebitten with injuries this year, which hasn't helped their situation.

Right now, the Royals have Cole Ragans, Carlos Estevez, and Jonathan India on the 60-Day IL, and Vinnie Pasquantino and Kyle Isbel on the 10-Day IL. While Maikel Garcia hasn't been placed on the IL, he has missed time due to a lingering hand injury. Lastly, Kansas City received a gut punch on Thursday in their blowout win over the Cardinals, as Bobby Witt Jr. left the game due to injury.

It was reported on Friday that Witt had suffered a grade 1 MCL sprain. As of now, it seems like the Royals are exploring options with Witt, especially with an off day on Saturday due to the World Cup game at Arrowhead Stadium. 

 

It doesn't seem like there are a lot of good takeaways from this club at this time, especially with them being 13 games under .500. However, I would say that there's one area for the Royals that has improved in June: the offense.

Let's take a look at the Royals' turnaround this month, which Kansas City players have stuck out specifically, and how the Royals' offense could fare going forward, especially with the most recent injury to Witt.

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Hitting the Ball and Stealing Bases Has Been Key in June

Overall, this year, the Royals' offensive numbers don't stick out at first glance.

According to Fangraphs, they rank 14th in fWAR, 22nd in wRC+, 20th in wOBA, and 17th in xwOBA. Kansas City has been a "middle-of-the-pack" offense, which is fine when paired up with good pitching. Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case this year, as the Royals pitching staff ranks 22nd in pitching fWAR and 21st in ERA. The bullpen has been especially poor, ranking 26th in reliever ERA and 30th in reliever fWAR, according to Fangraphs.

That said, while the Royals' offense won't catch the eye of most fans, especially those disenchanted with Alec Zumwalt and his performance as hitting coach, the numbers over the past month have trended positively in the right direction. 

In June alone, the Royals rank 3rd in fWAR, 9th in wRC+, 7th in wOBA, and 4th in xwOBA. They have done a good job of collecting hits this month, as evidenced by their .285 batting average, which ranks second in June. The Royals have also been proficient on the basepaths with 20 stolen bases, which leads all of baseball this month, and 94 runs scored, which ranks second.

A complete list of how the Royals have fared in June can be found in the table below, which is organized by fWAR. 

What's been nice to see from the Royals hitters this month is that they're drawing a decent number of walks (they rank 11th in BB%) while cutting down the strikeouts. Their 19.3% K% is the fourth-lowest mark in baseball this month. That is 1.7% lower than their season-long K%. That shows the Royals' hitters are not just making more contact, but also seeing the ball better and laying off bad pitches, something they weren't necessarily doing in the first couple of months of the season.

Another key for this Royals team is that they've been much better at driving in runs in June.

Their 88-RBI total is the fourth-highest mark in baseball in June, behind only Milwaukee (110 RBI), Colorado (90), and Sacramento (89). Driving in runs has been a challenge for the Royals this year, as they rank 18th in RBI with a 302 mark. Fans were frustrated earlier in the year by Kansas City frequently leaving runners on base. This month, the Royals have alleviated that problem quite a bit, as demonstrated by the high RBI total. 

The only category in which the Royals haven't thrived is home runs. They have hit 19 home runs this month, which ranks 20th in baseball. Their .159 ISO, while 15 points higher than their season-average, still ranks 22nd. Conversely, they have been trending better recently in this category. Jac Caglianone has led the charge in this category, as he has homers in back-to-back nights in this Cardinals series.

 

There has been plenty to be frustrated about with the Royals this season, even in June, as their record should be better than 10-8 considering how good the offense has been.

Nonetheless, Royals fans have been wanting this offense to improve, and it's been doing just that in June, despite the injuries affecting so many key hitters on this roster. 

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Jac, Lane, and Bobby Have Been Leading the Way in June

When looking at the Royals hitters individually this month, there are three particular hitters who have stood out: Caglianone, Witt, and Lane Thomas.

All three players lead Royals position players in fWAR in June, with Witt having a 1.2 fWAR, Cags having a 0.9 fWAR, and Thomas having a 0.5 fWAR. Below is a complete breakdown of Royals hitters' individual metrics this month, as organized by fWAR (this only includes hitters with 10 or more plate appearances). 

In addition to strong fWAR numbers, the trio has also put up strong results in wRC+ this month. Witt has a 142 wRC+, Cags has a 190 wRC+, and Thomas has a 160 wRC+. Thus, in terms of production, those three players have been key to Kansas City's offensive turnaround in June.

The biggest story has been the emergence of Cags, who leads all Royals hitters this month in wRC+. While the former Florida product has a high K% at 26.5%, he leads the team in home runs with five, his latest coming on Friday night against the Cardinals. Cags has also been an RBI machine this month. He had 11 RBIs going into Friday's game, and he collected two more after a two-hit game in the Royals' 6-5 win. 

 

When looking at Cags' Statcast percentiles chart this month via TJ Stats, there's a lot to like with his profile. He's hitting the ball hard, pulling it more often, and launching it effectively. While cutting down the strikeouts and chasing would be nice, Royals fans can live with the whiffs and strikeouts as long as the power continues to develop.

While Cags' breakout was nice, some of it was to be expected (or at least hoped for) in Spring Training. Thomas, however, was a bit more of a wild card when he was signed to a one-year deal this offseason.

Thomas was showing progress in April, hitting .255 with a .739 OPS in 64 plate appearances. However, he declined heavily in May, hitting just .171 with a .514 OPS in 51 plate appearances. Thankfully, he has not just bounced back in June but emerged as one of the Royals' more dependable hitters.

This month, the 30-year-old outfielder is hitting .280 with a .950 OPS in 59 plate appearances. He has hit four home runs in June after only one in March, April, and May combined. Thomas was particularly good in his old stomping grounds in Washington, as he hit homers in back-to-back games against the Nationals.

 

When looking at his TJ Stats Statcast percentiles this month, Thomas has not been as flawless as Cags, who was dark red in nearly every Statcast category. The 30-year-old's bat speed still rates below average, and his Max EV leaves a bit to be desired. That said, Thomas' patient approach seems to be paying off in June, as evidenced by his strong wOBA and xwOBA percentiles, just to name a few. 

The Royals acquired Thomas because he had a history of not chasing. He's done that especially well in June, as evidenced by his 98th percentile O-Swing%. That has not only helped his BB% (90th percentile) but also improved his swing decisions. Those better decisions have resulted in more barrels (69th percentile barrel%) and better actual (98th percentile wOBA) and expected (85th percentile xwOBA) production. 

Thus, the former Guardians and Nationals outfielder has emerged as an everyday option in the outfield for manager Matt Quatraro, which is much needed with Isbel expected to be on the IL for a while due to plantar fasciitis. 

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Can the Royals Overcome the Loss of Bobby?

Kansas City has weathered the loss of Vinnie and Maikel well this month. Caglianone has slid into first base and may make Pasquantino expendable this offseason. Nick Loftin has also filled in well for Garcia, as Loftin is putting up a 151 wRC+ and 0.3 fWAR, the latter thanks to much better defense at third than second. 

However, if Bobby goes on the IL, that could be a more significant hit to this surging Royals lineup (even though they scored six runs in his absence on Friday). 

Witt hasn't hit for much power this month, as evidenced by his one home run and .108 ISO. That said, he not only led the team in fWAR, but he had a 142 wRC+, a 14.3% BB%, a 14.3% K%, and 12 runs scored before going down to injury on Thursday.

Bobby's Statcast percentiles summary via TJ Stats showed he was an elite hitter in June, hitting the ball hard and effectively, though he could barrel and launch the ball more often. 

Witt only had a 35th-percentile barrel% and a Pull Air% in the 27th percentile, not a recipe for home runs. However, those paltry marks could be due to lackluster bat speed this month  (32nd percentile), which caused him to swing late and settle for singles and doubles rather than home runs.

He did seem to be trending in the right direction on Thursday, as he hit his first home run of the month in the first inning off Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore. 

 

Unfortunately, the excitement with Witt's power was cut short after he injured his knee on a diving play. As Quatraro said in his pregame presser, an IL stint could be possible, though no decision has been made just yet. It's likely that the Royals will let him rest and recover on the Saturday off day and make a decision about his future before Sunday's game.

If Witt does hit the IL, it will be difficult for the Royals to find an adequate replacement at shortstop. 

Tyler Tolbert got the start at shortstop on Friday, and he showed some strong defense and drove in an RBI on a sacrifice fly to center field. That said, he has a 98 wRC+ in 15 plate appearances and is striking out 46.7% of the time. The Royals need more than that at shortstop, even with Tolbert's speed (five stolen bases) and defense, which was on full display tonight.

 

If healthy, Garcia makes the most sense at shortstop, especially since he has profiled well there defensively in the past. That said, he hasn't exactly had a stellar June. In 39 plate appearances, he is hitting .257 with an 89 wRC+. His K% is high this month at 23.1%, and he hasn't hit a home run, a slump that goes back to April (he didn't hit a home run in May). 

Garcia's Statcast summary shows a hitter who doesn't chase and is barreling better, but is struggling to generate consistent launch angle, exit velocity, and bat speed. Those issues could be tied to his on-again, off-again hand injury. He isn't pulling the ball in the air either, an area where he was showing progress earlier in the season. 

If Garcia can get healthy and closer to his April form, then the Royals should be fine with Witt out. Grade 1 MCL sprains typically have a 1-3 week recovery time, and Garcia can certainly hold down the shortstop position during that window. 

And yet, the Venezuelan infielder is not healthy, and hand injuries can take time to fully recover from, even if they do not require an injury stint. It's possible that Garcia may not return to his April self until after the All-Star break, at the soonest. 

That murkiness around Garcia's health makes this Witt situation that much more difficult for Quatraro and the President of Baseball Operations, JJ Picollo.

 

 

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