Did the Kansas City Royals Make the Right Call at the Trade Deadline?

The Kansas City Royals are 46-67 this season, good for last place in the AL Central. On Fangraphs, their playoff odds are 0.0%, and they are nine losses worse than the Tigers, who sit in fourth place in the Central Division. 

Typically, when a team is facing that kind of season, they tend to be active at the Trade Deadline. That was the case in 2022 and 2023, when the Royals dealt away many well-established pieces from their roster in exchange for long-term assets. 

This Deadline, Royals President of Baseball Operations JJ Picollo opted to stay pat with this roster. They traded away Lane Thomas and Bailey Falter on Saturday, and then traded away Kris Bubic to the Dodgers on Monday. However, aside from a minor move involving the recently DFA'd Nolan Hoffman, Kansas City didn't acquire many assets at the Deadline, both short- and long-term. 

As a result, many Royals fans are asking themselves after this disappointing Trade Deadline: What is the Royals' plan? And will it work out?

The Royals Added Some Much-Needed Bullpen Depth

Kansas City didn't add much talent on Monday. However, they did bring in an influx of bullpen arms over the past few days. Considering the Royals' bullpen ranks 29th in reliever ERA and 30th in reliever WHIP, that was a sound strategy, especially since there aren't a lot of great options lingering in Triple-A Omaha or Double-A Northwest Arkansas. 

The Royals added two key arms in the Thomas/Falter trade: right-hander Lucas Braun and left-hander Carter Holton. I broke down both their outlooks in a recent post here on Royals Keep.

On Monday, the Royals were able to deal Bubic to the Dodgers in exchange for right-handed reliever Carlos Duran. 

Bubic being traded away came as a big surprise to most people. The former 40th overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft only pitched nine games and 50.1 IP this season. He is currently on the 60-Day IL and hasn't pitched since May 14th against the White Sox. And yet, the Dodgers were not just willing to acquire him, but also throw in an intriguing arm in Duran, who was pitching in Triple-A Oklahoma City before the trade. 

Duran has limited MLB experience, as his only Major League appearance came in 2025 with the Athletics (he allowed 3 runs in 0.1 IP). However, he's been solid this year in Triple-A Oklahoma City.

In 37 appearances and 42.2 IP, he posted a 3.38 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 3.10 FIP, 31.1% K%, and 16.8% K-BB%. In Triple-A this season, he's not just minimized hard contact by hitters, but he's also showcased excellent stuff and generated a lot of chases and whiffs, as evidenced in his TJ Stats Statcast percentiles. 

Strikes and walks have been problems for Duran, as evidenced by his 17th percentile zone rate and walk rate. That said, he sports the kind of profile that this bullpen is missing beyond Steven Cruz and Beck Way, two younger relievers with upside. Duran could join the pair in giving the Royals some ceiling in the bullpen, especially since he has plenty of years of team control remaining.

When looking at him throwing on tape, Duran is a big (6'7!) pitcher who may remind a lot of Royals fans of Cruz. That said, the former Dodgers prospect may have more polish and upside. 

In addition to Duran, the Royals also acquired Hoffman, who was recently designated for assignment by the Phillies. Much like Duran, most of Hoffman's experience this year has been in Triple-A Lehigh Valley. In 30 appearances and 34.1 IP in Triple-A, the 28-year-old righty has a 4.72 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 3.70 FIP, 26% K%, and 14.3% K-BB%. 

Hoffman doesn't have elite stuff, but he throws eight types of pitches and generates a lot of groundballs and weak contact, as illustrated in his TJ Stats Statcast percentiles. 

In many ways, Hoffman's profile seems a lot like John Schreiber, but with more pitch offerings, Hoffman has the same kind of sidearm delivery as Schreiber, which is evident in this clip from his brief stint with the Phillies this season.

For a pitcher with years of team control and two Minor League options remaining, the Royals have a potentially valuable reliever who can help immediately and not eat into the Royals' payroll. 

Even though the Royals didn't make a plethora of moves by the Trade Deadline, they made transactions that helped a much-maligned bullpen for not just the remainder of the 2026 season, but 2027 and beyond. 

The Royals Didn't Do Enough at the Deadline

The moves that the Royals made at the Deadline were solid, honestly. They traded expiring assets for long-term ones who provide some upside at a position (bullpen) that vastly needs improvement. 

The unfortunate aspect of all of this is that Picollo didn't make enough moves. 

Understandably, the Royals didn't trade away Michael Wacha or Seth Lugo at the Deadline. Considering the price of free-agent starting pitching, and the questions in the Kansas City rotation for 2027 with Cole Ragans' elbow surgery, it's easy to see why Picollo asked for a high price for the pair. Unfortunately, the price wasn't met, and that's okay, especially considering the value that Wacha and Lugo have provided this Royals team since 2024. 

On the flip side, Kansas City held on to many expiring assets at the Deadline, not exactly the most sound strategy for a team that is 21 games under .500.

They may not have had much trade value, but it's unlikely that Schreiber, Matt Strahm, and Starling Marte will be on this Royals team in 2027. Additionally, while Alex Lange and Daniel Lynch IV have years of control, they're relievers, and there's a volatility that comes with relief pitchers.

Royals fans have seen that this year with those two in particular. Lange has a 6.25 ERA and has faded in the second half in the closer's role. As for Lynch, he has a 2.00 ERA, but his xERA is 3.38, and his FIP is 3.10. Thus, regression may be coming for Lynch, especially since he doesn't strike out a ton of batters or sport great TJ Stuff+ or extension numbers.

Maybe the Royals wouldn't have gotten the return that other teams got for their relievers. After all, it's tough to sell relievers when one's team is the worst bullpen (arguably) in baseball. However, the Royals need to rebuild their bullpen anyway, and getting rid of some of these pieces could have given them a head start on this goal in 2027.

There's no question the Royals believe injuries hurt them in 2026, and that this team can turn things around in 2027 if they are healthy. I agree to a point. Yes, with better health, this team will be better. On May 5th, the Royals were 17-19 and 0.5 games behind the division-leading Tigers and Guardians in the AL Central. After that date, they were plagued by numerous unfortunate injuries to key players: Ragans, Carlos Estevez, Maikel Garcia, and Vinnie Pasquantino were just a few. 

Two things need to happen for them to avoid this issue: they need to revamp the training staff (Kyle Turner and this team aren't cutting it), and they need to add more depth on their roster to overcome these injuries. The Royals can't do anything with the former problem until after the season.

Conversely, they could've addressed the latter issue more significantly at the Deadline. Picollo chose not to, which only puts more pressure on him to improve this roster this Winter. 

If he isn't able to be more aggressive this offseason, Picollo may see 2027 as his final season as chief executive of the Royals. 

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