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The Top 25 Kansas City Royals Player Assets of 2026: Part 1 (25-21)
Kevin O'Brien posted an article in Royals
In the mold of our friends over at Twins Daily, I wanted to figure out who the 25 most valuable player assets were in the Kansas City Royals organization going into 2026. This is especially important amid rumors of possible Royals trades. If Kansas City does want to acquire a player, who are the candidates with enough asset value to help put a deal over the top? There are various tools to do this. Baseball Trade Values is an incredible resource, as is their Trade Simulator. However, player value can go beyond their "trade value" on the market. Yes, a player's age, contract, controllability, and upside all matter. Additionally, other factors matter, especially those related to the Royals' context and their current standing as a franchise. And where are they now? They are on the rise, looking to return to the postseason after an 82-80 season in 2025. Under GM JJ Picollo and owner John Sherman, the Royals are looking to be a perennial small-market winner, like the Brewers, Rays, and Guardians. That said, they also seem willing to make the right trades to get the right players and assets to compete for not just a Central Division crown and postseason berth, but an AL Pennant and World Series title as well. Thus, there is a balance of young and veteran players on this Top 25 list, reflecting the Royals' current situation. This list will definitely change over time, but as we finish 2025 and head into 2026, this group of 25 Royals players is the most important in the organization, based on all the factors I have mentioned above. Let's begin by looking at this group of Kansas City assets, starting with the 25th through 21st players in this post. 25. Michael Massey, 2B/LF Age: 27 Controlled Through: 2028 Massey is coming off a rough season, posting a 57 wRC+ while only accumulating 277 plate appearances due to various injuries. That said, he posted a 104 wRC+ and 1.5 fWAR in 2024 and was a leadoff hitter for the Royals in the postseason that year. He has a bit of a free-swinging approach (career 0.23 BB/K ratio), but there is some power there (.190 ISO in 2024) for a second baseman, which gives him value. Another positive aspect of Massey's profile is that he's solid defensively and can play second base and left field seamlessly. He's accumulated an OAA of +3 and FRV of +6 at second base over his career and a FRV of +1 in the outfield. That versatility is a big reason the Royals tendered him a contract this offseason and why he could be attractive to other teams in a possible trade, especially if he were moved to a more hitter-friendly park. 24. James McArthur, RHP Age: 29 Controlled Through: 2029 McArthur didn't throw a pitch for the Royals last year due to recovery from elbow surgery. However, he has sneaky value as a pitching asset, especially given his low salary ($800,000 in 2026) and years of team control (he will not be a free agent until 2030). Though he is nearly 30, his arm should be fresh after sitting out all of 2025. In 2024, his ERA was high at 4.92, and even though he saved 18 games in 57 appearances, he blew seven games. That inconsistency in the ninth led to him losing the closer's job to Lucas Erceg, who was acquired at the 2024 Trade Deadline. A deeper look into McArthur's metrics shows a rosier picture for 2026, especially if he's healthy. Two seasons ago, he posted a 30.7% and 31.4% CSW, as well as a groundball rate of 53.3%. As a result, his FIP was a lot better at 4.17, as was his 3.62 xFIP. He could thrive in a middle-innings or seventh-inning setup man role in 2026 and beyond. He also could benefit from another year of tutelage from not just Brian Sweeney, but new assistant pitching coach Mike McFerran, who replaced Zach Bove, who left for the pitching coach job with the White Sox. 23. Ben Kudrna, RHP Age: 22 Controlled Through: 2031+ The Royals added Kudrna to the 40-man roster this year, despite an uneven season in the Minors last season. In 24 appearances (22 starts) and 102.1 IP between Double-A and Triple-A, he posted a 5.30 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 1.44 WHIP, and 2.12 K/BB ratio. However, he was particularly disastrous in 11.1 IP with the Storm Chasers. In Triple-A, Kudrna posted a 14.29 ERA, 9.94 FIP, 2.74 WHIP, and 0.59 K/BB ratio. Kansas City still added Kudrna to the 40-man roster despite the rough Omaha debut because the Overland Park native has shown the ability to adjust at each Minor League level. After putting up a sub-20% K rate in High-A in 2023, he improved his K rate to 24.2% overall between High-A and Double-A in 2024 and 22.9% overall last year. He is also only 22 years old and should benefit from some coaching changes (there will be a new manager) that could help Kudrna in a full season in Omaha. Kudrna may not be an "ace" at the Major League level, but he has No. 4-to-5 starter potential with No. 3 upside, which gives him pretty good value as a player asset in this Royals organization (though his stuff is more good than "elite"). 22. Ryan Bergert, RHP Age: 25 Controlled Through: 2031 Bergert came over in the Freddy Fermin trade with San Diego and initially got off to a great start in Royals blue. In August, he posted a 2.54 ERA and 3.13 K/BB ratio in 28.1 IP with the Royals. In September? He posted an 8.76 ERA and 1.56 K/BB ratio in 12.1 IP before being shut down for the remainder of the injury due to shoulder impingement. In 40.2 IP with the Royals overall last year, he put up a 4.43 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, and 2.29 K/BB ratio. He definitely has strikeout ability (22.4% K rate with the Royals), and he limited his hard-hit rate from 37.5% earlier in the year with San Diego to 35.6% with Kansas City after the Trade Deadline. He does allow a lot of fly balls, however, with a 47.6% flyball rate overall last season. Bergert has a chance to climb this list if he returns healthy and can iron out his command a bit in an end-of-the-rotation or hybrid role in 2026. If he can regain the form he had in that first month in Kansas City, he could be a Top-15 player asset by the conclusion of next season. 21. Stephen Kolek, RHP Age: 28 Controlled Through: 2031+ Kolek, who also came to the Royals in the Fermin trade, is a tad older than Bergert, but he was more successful overall in 2025. In 19 starts and 112.2 IP with the Padres and Royals last year, he posted a 3.51 ERA, 3.82 FIP, and 1.7 fWAR. Kolek was especially successful with the Royals, as he posted a 1.91 ERA, 2.71 FIP, and 0.9 fWAR in five starts and 33 IP. Kolek's profile is very different from Bergert's. Bergert generated more strikeouts, as Kolek only sported a 16.8% K rate and 24.8% CSW last year. However, the former Texas A&M pitcher was much better at generating groundballs (51.4%) and commanding the strike zone (2.48 K/BB ratio). The lack of swing-and-miss for Kolek could make him susceptible to some regression in 2026, but it seems like the Royals have succeeded with pitchers of his profile, with Seth Lugo and Noah Cameron being prime examples. His ability to limit walks and eat innings makes Kolek a valuable asset, especially since he's still in the pre-arbitration process. That said, his age (28) deflates his value a bit, especially since he'll be 30 in 2028 and 2025 was his first real exposure as a starter at the Major League level (he pitched 42 innings in 2024 but only as a reliever). Look out soon for part 2 by Philip Ruo, which looks at the 20th through 16th player assets in the Royals system!- 1 comment
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In this episode of the Crown Cast, Kevin recaps the Royals’ moves, including trading for Isaac Collins and Nick Mears, the extension to Maikel Garcia, and also looks at a couple of outfielders that could be trade targets for the Royals this winter to help round out the 2026 lineup.
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In this episode of the Crown Cast, Kevin recaps the Royals’ moves, including trading for Isaac Collins and Nick Mears, the extension to Maikel Garcia, and also looks at a couple of outfielders that could be trade targets for the Royals this winter to help round out the 2026 lineup. View full video
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It was a big week for the Royals, with transactions and upgrades to their outfield. Not only did they sign former Guardians outfielder Lane Thomas to a one-year, $5.2 million deal, but they also acquired Brewers outfielder Isaac Collins (as well as reliever Nick Mears) in a trade for lefty reliever Angel Zerpa. Adding Thomas and Collins gives the Royals much-needed depth at a position they struggled with in 2025. According to Fangraphs, Kansas City's outfielders ranked last in fWAR (-1.4) and wRC+ (70). At the very least, Thomas and Collins should help boost the Royals' outfield on both the offensive and defensive ends next season, especially if they're completely healthy. That said, it doesn't seem like the Royals are completely done adding to the outfield this offseason. According to Ken Rosenthal, Kansas City remains interested in acquiring Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran. However, the Royals are not willing to trade away two-time Opening Day starter Cole Ragans to make that trade a reality. There's still plenty of time in the winter for a deal between the Red Sox and Royals to happen. However, why are the Royals so eager to acquire Duran, why are they not willing to include Ragans, and will a deal happen before pitchers and catchers report in late February? Let's break down those questions individually to determine whether a Duran-to-Kansas City deal will be realistic this offseason. Duran Gives the Royals the Middle-of-the-Order Bat They Need The Royals' lineup got better with the Thomas and Collins acquisitions, but it's likely that both those bats will be better utilized at the bottom of the batting order instead of the top or middle. According to Roster Resource's projected 2026 Royals depth chart, Collins is projected to play left field and bat eighth. As for Thomas, he's expected to be a platoon bench player, likely with Kyle Isbel or Jac Caglianone. Regardless of who he plays for, it is likely that Thomas will bat in the 8th or 9th hole in the batting order. That still leaves a bit of a gap in the middle of the lineup with Caglianone, Jonathan India, and Michael Massey projected to hit 5th, 6th, and 7th, respectively. All three of those hitters posted wRC+ marks under 90, and Massey and Caglianone sported marks under 60. Duran, on the other hand, posted a 111 wRC+ in 696 plate appearances last year. Furthermore, Depth Charts projects that Duran will post a 107 wRC+ and 2.6 fWAR in 2026. His wRC+ projection is better than India's (102), Massey's (89), Thomas's (92), and Collins's (104). Conversely, his wRC+ is projected to lag behind fellow Red Sox outfielders like Roman Anthony (122), Wilyer Abreu (114), and Masataka Yoshida (110). Furthermore, Romy Gonzalez (104) and Kristian Campbell (100) aren't far behind, and they can play outfield if needed. Thus, the Royals may need Duran more than the Red Sox need their 29-year-old former All-Star. Duran does have the combination of defensive versatility and skills to succeed as an everyday left fielder for the Royals in 2026 and beyond (he won't be a free agent until 2029). When it comes to his Stacast profile, the Boston outfielder can be a bit free-swinging. Still, the exit velocity metrics illustrate that Duran has the hitting ability to succeed in Kauffman Stadium. While Isbel has been great defensively, he only posted a 79 wRC+ and is only projected to put up an 87 wRC+, according to Depth Charts' projections. That puts him behind not only Duran but also Collins, Thomas, and Massey. Hence, if Collins could adjust to Kauffman's spacious dimensions, he could steal some time away from Isbel or push Caglianone into more designated hitter duty. That could allow Duran to play left field every day if the Royals can find a way to bring him to Kansas City. Acquiring Duran not only makes the Royals a candidate to return to the postseason, but also a team that could win the Central and compete for an AL Pennant in 2026, especially if he's batting in the five-hole (which moves Caglianone down in the order and takes some pressure off him at the plate). Why the Royals Won't Part With Ragans Early on in the offseason, there were rumors that the Royals were willing to trade away Ragans to acquire a player of Duran's caliber. However, at the Winter Meetings, Picollo seemed committed to keeping their ace in Kansas City for at least next season. It certainly wasn't Ragans' best season last year, as a shoulder injury limited him to just 61.2 IP. Furthermore, his ERA was mediocre for his standards at 4.67. That said, he still posted a 14.30 K/9, the best mark of Royals starters last year, and a 2.1 fWAR, the third-best mark of Royals pitchers (only Michael Wacha and Kris Bubic posted better marks). In addition, Ragans' TJ Stuff+, as well as chase and whiff metrics, were elite, despite the small sample. That is illustrated in his TJ Stats summary below. All of Ragans' metrics rated as slightly above or clearly above-average, including TJ Stuff+ (104), zone% (51.7%), chase% (29.8%), whiff% (34.6%), and xwOBACON (.362). Thus, it's not a surprise that Ragans' 2.50 FIP was 2.27 points lower than his ERA. If Ragans pitched more innings, his ERA would likely've been closer to the 3.14 mark he posted in 2024 or the 3.47 mark in 2023. The 28-year-old is also projected favorably in early projection models so far. Depth Charts projects Ragans to post a 3.23 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 29.7% K%, and 4.3 fWAR in 172 IP next season. That's the second-best projection of any Royals player next year (only Bobby Witt Jr. is higher at 6.9), and it's 1.7 fWAR better than Duran. Thus, a straight-up trade for Duran would be an overpay by Kansas City, even with Ragans' injury history and their dire need for a middle-of-the-order bat that can preferably play in the outfield. Can the Royals and Red Sox Get a Deal Done (With Bubic as the Centerpiece)? Trading Duran makes sense for the Red Sox, especially considering the depth they have in the outfield and the lack of solid starting pitching, even after the acquisition of Sonny Gray from St. Louis. While Gray and Garrett Crochet are a solid one-two punch, Bryan Bello is a bit of a wild card (4.19 FIP and 1.9 fWAR in 2025), and Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval, projected to be the fourth and fifth pitchers in the rotation, didn't throw a pitch last year due to injury. If the Red Sox don't want to throw any prospects or additional players in a Duran deal, they could settle on Kris Bubic, who's entering his last year of team control. The Royals' lefty made his first All-Star team and posted a 2.55 ERA and 3.3 fWAR in 116.1 IP last season. Unfortunately, he missed most of the second half due to a shoulder injury that was similar to Ragans'. Thus, after missing nearly all of 2023 due to Tommy John and the second half of last year, it makes sense why teams, including the Red Sox, may be squeamish on acquiring Bubic. Still, projections are pretty optimistic about Bubic for 2026. Depth Charts projects Bubic to post a 3.80 ERA, 3.83 FIP, and 2.4 fWAR in 155 IP. That's only a 0.2 fWAR difference from Duran, and his fWAR projection would make him Boston's third-best starter in 2026. I also think Depth Charts' projections are underselling his strikeout ability next season. They are projecting a 22.5% K% next year, and I think he's capable of surpassing that based on what he showed in TJ Stuff+ and other metrics last year, via TJ Stats. When looking at his TJ Stats summary, his profile compares quite similarly to Ragans, with all of his categories rating either slightly above or better. That includes TJ Stuff+ (103), zone% (51.9%), chase% (32.4%), whiff% (28.8%), and xwOBACON (.344). When comparing Ragans' and Bubic's TJ Stats Summaries side by side, Ragans has the better velocity. However, Bubic was better at inducing less productive contact (xwOBACON) and generating better extension on his pitches. The Red Sox may reconsider their impression of Bubic. The Royals may be willing to trade not only Bubic to Boston but also include another relief pitcher or a 10-15th-ranked prospect in the deal for Duran alone. However, if the Red Sox are adamant about getting Ragans, Boston will likely have to throw something significant with Duran, whether it's on the player or prospect end (and even then, that may not be enough for Kansas City). It will be interesting to see if Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow is willing to settle for Bubic in a possible trade for Duran. Such a concession may be a win-win for both teams, with the Red Sox obviously having the payroll to afford a Bubic extension if he can get back to his All-Star self in 2026. Unfortunately, it feels likely that a lot of time has to pass, as well as other pitching options have to come off the market, whether through free agency or trade, for Breslow and the Red Sox to concede to Picollo and Kansas City and choose Bubic over Ragans as the return in a Duran trade.
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Image courtesy of © Eric Hartline-Imagn Images It was a big week for the Royals, with transactions and upgrades to their outfield. Not only did they sign former Guardians outfielder Lane Thomas to a one-year, $5.2 million deal, but they also acquired Brewers outfielder Isaac Collins (as well as reliever Nick Mears) in a trade for lefty reliever Angel Zerpa. Adding Thomas and Collins gives the Royals much-needed depth at a position they struggled with in 2025. According to Fangraphs, Kansas City's outfielders ranked last in fWAR (-1.4) and wRC+ (70). At the very least, Thomas and Collins should help boost the Royals' outfield on both the offensive and defensive ends next season, especially if they're completely healthy. That said, it doesn't seem like the Royals are completely done adding to the outfield this offseason. According to Ken Rosenthal, Kansas City remains interested in acquiring Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran. However, the Royals are not willing to trade away two-time Opening Day starter Cole Ragans to make that trade a reality. There's still plenty of time in the winter for a deal between the Red Sox and Royals to happen. However, why are the Royals so eager to acquire Duran, why are they not willing to include Ragans, and will a deal happen before pitchers and catchers report in late February? Let's break down those questions individually to determine whether a Duran-to-Kansas City deal will be realistic this offseason. Duran Gives the Royals the Middle-of-the-Order Bat They Need The Royals' lineup got better with the Thomas and Collins acquisitions, but it's likely that both those bats will be better utilized at the bottom of the batting order instead of the top or middle. According to Roster Resource's projected 2026 Royals depth chart, Collins is projected to play left field and bat eighth. As for Thomas, he's expected to be a platoon bench player, likely with Kyle Isbel or Jac Caglianone. Regardless of who he plays for, it is likely that Thomas will bat in the 8th or 9th hole in the batting order. That still leaves a bit of a gap in the middle of the lineup with Caglianone, Jonathan India, and Michael Massey projected to hit 5th, 6th, and 7th, respectively. All three of those hitters posted wRC+ marks under 90, and Massey and Caglianone sported marks under 60. Duran, on the other hand, posted a 111 wRC+ in 696 plate appearances last year. Furthermore, Depth Charts projects that Duran will post a 107 wRC+ and 2.6 fWAR in 2026. His wRC+ projection is better than India's (102), Massey's (89), Thomas's (92), and Collins's (104). Conversely, his wRC+ is projected to lag behind fellow Red Sox outfielders like Roman Anthony (122), Wilyer Abreu (114), and Masataka Yoshida (110). Furthermore, Romy Gonzalez (104) and Kristian Campbell (100) aren't far behind, and they can play outfield if needed. Thus, the Royals may need Duran more than the Red Sox need their 29-year-old former All-Star. Duran does have the combination of defensive versatility and skills to succeed as an everyday left fielder for the Royals in 2026 and beyond (he won't be a free agent until 2029). When it comes to his Stacast profile, the Boston outfielder can be a bit free-swinging. Still, the exit velocity metrics illustrate that Duran has the hitting ability to succeed in Kauffman Stadium. While Isbel has been great defensively, he only posted a 79 wRC+ and is only projected to put up an 87 wRC+, according to Depth Charts' projections. That puts him behind not only Duran but also Collins, Thomas, and Massey. Hence, if Collins could adjust to Kauffman's spacious dimensions, he could steal some time away from Isbel or push Caglianone into more designated hitter duty. That could allow Duran to play left field every day if the Royals can find a way to bring him to Kansas City. Acquiring Duran not only makes the Royals a candidate to return to the postseason, but also a team that could win the Central and compete for an AL Pennant in 2026, especially if he's batting in the five-hole (which moves Caglianone down in the order and takes some pressure off him at the plate). Why the Royals Won't Part With Ragans Early on in the offseason, there were rumors that the Royals were willing to trade away Ragans to acquire a player of Duran's caliber. However, at the Winter Meetings, Picollo seemed committed to keeping their ace in Kansas City for at least next season. It certainly wasn't Ragans' best season last year, as a shoulder injury limited him to just 61.2 IP. Furthermore, his ERA was mediocre for his standards at 4.67. That said, he still posted a 14.30 K/9, the best mark of Royals starters last year, and a 2.1 fWAR, the third-best mark of Royals pitchers (only Michael Wacha and Kris Bubic posted better marks). In addition, Ragans' TJ Stuff+, as well as chase and whiff metrics, were elite, despite the small sample. That is illustrated in his TJ Stats summary below. All of Ragans' metrics rated as slightly above or clearly above-average, including TJ Stuff+ (104), zone% (51.7%), chase% (29.8%), whiff% (34.6%), and xwOBACON (.362). Thus, it's not a surprise that Ragans' 2.50 FIP was 2.27 points lower than his ERA. If Ragans pitched more innings, his ERA would likely've been closer to the 3.14 mark he posted in 2024 or the 3.47 mark in 2023. The 28-year-old is also projected favorably in early projection models so far. Depth Charts projects Ragans to post a 3.23 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 29.7% K%, and 4.3 fWAR in 172 IP next season. That's the second-best projection of any Royals player next year (only Bobby Witt Jr. is higher at 6.9), and it's 1.7 fWAR better than Duran. Thus, a straight-up trade for Duran would be an overpay by Kansas City, even with Ragans' injury history and their dire need for a middle-of-the-order bat that can preferably play in the outfield. Can the Royals and Red Sox Get a Deal Done (With Bubic as the Centerpiece)? Trading Duran makes sense for the Red Sox, especially considering the depth they have in the outfield and the lack of solid starting pitching, even after the acquisition of Sonny Gray from St. Louis. While Gray and Garrett Crochet are a solid one-two punch, Bryan Bello is a bit of a wild card (4.19 FIP and 1.9 fWAR in 2025), and Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval, projected to be the fourth and fifth pitchers in the rotation, didn't throw a pitch last year due to injury. If the Red Sox don't want to throw any prospects or additional players in a Duran deal, they could settle on Kris Bubic, who's entering his last year of team control. The Royals' lefty made his first All-Star team and posted a 2.55 ERA and 3.3 fWAR in 116.1 IP last season. Unfortunately, he missed most of the second half due to a shoulder injury that was similar to Ragans'. Thus, after missing nearly all of 2023 due to Tommy John and the second half of last year, it makes sense why teams, including the Red Sox, may be squeamish on acquiring Bubic. Still, projections are pretty optimistic about Bubic for 2026. Depth Charts projects Bubic to post a 3.80 ERA, 3.83 FIP, and 2.4 fWAR in 155 IP. That's only a 0.2 fWAR difference from Duran, and his fWAR projection would make him Boston's third-best starter in 2026. I also think Depth Charts' projections are underselling his strikeout ability next season. They are projecting a 22.5% K% next year, and I think he's capable of surpassing that based on what he showed in TJ Stuff+ and other metrics last year, via TJ Stats. When looking at his TJ Stats summary, his profile compares quite similarly to Ragans, with all of his categories rating either slightly above or better. That includes TJ Stuff+ (103), zone% (51.9%), chase% (32.4%), whiff% (28.8%), and xwOBACON (.344). When comparing Ragans' and Bubic's TJ Stats Summaries side by side, Ragans has the better velocity. However, Bubic was better at inducing less productive contact (xwOBACON) and generating better extension on his pitches. The Red Sox may reconsider their impression of Bubic. The Royals may be willing to trade not only Bubic to Boston but also include another relief pitcher or a 10-15th-ranked prospect in the deal for Duran alone. However, if the Red Sox are adamant about getting Ragans, Boston will likely have to throw something significant with Duran, whether it's on the player or prospect end (and even then, that may not be enough for Kansas City). It will be interesting to see if Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow is willing to settle for Bubic in a possible trade for Duran. Such a concession may be a win-win for both teams, with the Red Sox obviously having the payroll to afford a Bubic extension if he can get back to his All-Star self in 2026. Unfortunately, it feels likely that a lot of time has to pass, as well as other pitching options have to come off the market, whether through free agency or trade, for Breslow and the Red Sox to concede to Picollo and Kansas City and choose Bubic over Ragans as the return in a Duran trade. View full article
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I made the changes and made it an image file so that it's easier to see. When embedding Datawrapper, it seems like there are some viewing issues when reading an article on mobile. Will definitely see what we can do to fix the bugs. I get it, but at end of day, Davis didn't have a really long tenure here and Herrera while good, I don't think merits inclusion based on him as an individual. I could see Herrera and/or Davis substituting for Soria (I like other Royals eras being represented) but it becomes tougher when you only have five votes. Could see Davis getting in on the next ballot once Holland gets in. Herrera will just be tough because he didn't have that era as a dominant closer like Davis or Holland.
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Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-Imagn Images On December 8th, the Royals announced voting would open for the Royals Hall of Fame Class of 2026. This vote determines who will be inducted into the team's illustrious Hall of Fame, located at Kauffman Stadium. Last year, Alex Gordon became the latest member inducted into the Royals Hall of Fame. Gordon was the first player from the 2014-2015 squads to be voted in (manager Ned Yost was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2023). This year, there are nine players on the Hall of Fame ballot, including two former Royals who are on the ballot for the first time. Here are the players Royals fans can vote for this year: Lorenzo Cain, OF (first-time) Alcides Escobar, SS (first-time) Greg Holland, RHP Wade Davis, RHP Kelvin Herrera, RHP Billy Butler, DH/1B Carlos Beltran, OF Joakim Soria, RHP Yordano Ventura, RHP In this post, members of the Royals Keep staff, including myself, Philip Ruo, Kerry Flanagan, and Carter Lundberg, shared our ballots and why we made our selections. Fans can make their own selections at this link. For a Royals alumnus to be elected (or stay on the ballot), they have to accomplish the following criteria, which are listed on the Royals Hall of Fame ballot: Thus, let's take a look at our votes and our analysis for each player we voted for, organized by player and the number of votes they received from the Royals Keep staff. © BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Lorenzo Cain, OF (Four Votes) Kevin Philip Kerry Carter © H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Carlos Beltran, OF (Four Votes) Kevin Philip Kerry Carter © Peter G. Aiken-Imagn Images Yordano Ventura, RHP (Four Votes) Kevin Philip Kerry Carter © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images Greg Holland, RHP (Three Votes) Kevin Philip Carter © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images Joakim Soria, RHP (Two Votes) Kevin Kerry © Ken Blaze-Imagn Images Alcides Escobar, SS (One Vote) Kerry View full article
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On December 8th, the Royals announced voting would open for the Royals Hall of Fame Class of 2026. This vote determines who will be inducted into the team's illustrious Hall of Fame, located at Kauffman Stadium. Last year, Alex Gordon became the latest member inducted into the Royals Hall of Fame. Gordon was the first player from the 2014-2015 squads to be voted in (manager Ned Yost was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2023). This year, there are nine players on the Hall of Fame ballot, including two former Royals who are on the ballot for the first time. Here are the players Royals fans can vote for this year: Lorenzo Cain, OF (first-time) Alcides Escobar, SS (first-time) Greg Holland, RHP Wade Davis, RHP Kelvin Herrera, RHP Billy Butler, DH/1B Carlos Beltran, OF Joakim Soria, RHP Yordano Ventura, RHP In this post, members of the Royals Keep staff, including myself, Philip Ruo, Kerry Flanagan, and Carter Lundberg, shared our ballots and why we made our selections. Fans can make their own selections at this link. For a Royals alumnus to be elected (or stay on the ballot), they have to accomplish the following criteria, which are listed on the Royals Hall of Fame ballot: Thus, let's take a look at our votes and our analysis for each player we voted for, organized by player and the number of votes they received from the Royals Keep staff. © BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Lorenzo Cain, OF (Four Votes) Kevin Philip Kerry Carter © H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Carlos Beltran, OF (Four Votes) Kevin Philip Kerry Carter © Peter G. Aiken-Imagn Images Yordano Ventura, RHP (Four Votes) Kevin Philip Kerry Carter © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images Greg Holland, RHP (Three Votes) Kevin Philip Carter © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images Joakim Soria, RHP (Two Votes) Kevin Kerry © Ken Blaze-Imagn Images Alcides Escobar, SS (One Vote) Kerry
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I get the "Collins is going to regress" argument. At the same time, no one is expecting him to be an All-Star, just better than what the Royals produced in the OF, which was worst in fWAR and wRC+ last year. Even if he regresses to his Steamer projections, Collins will be far better than what Rave, MJ, Isbel, and Renfroe produced last year. I also think that there's a lot of love for Zerpa for a guy who's been good, but still struggles to get whiffs and has a history of conditioning issues in the past. I think he's gotten over those (think that issue happened in his first couple of years), but that's something to be aware of on Milwaukee's end. While Milwaukee has a great pitching development team, the Royals are pretty good too and have put in a lot of the same work that Jack mentioned in his recent piece. It's not quite the Cal Eldred days lol.
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That's a good point. I'm in the same boat: if Zerpa succeeds, good for him and the Brewers for getting something out of him. I think Zerpa had reached his peak as a Royal and I'm glad the Royals were able to get something significant for him now instead of waiting too long. That's been a big difference between JJ and Dayton, as JJ has opted to trade guys while they still have value instead of waiting and missing out on that window.
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Royals Address A Couple of Important Needs in Trade With Brewers
Kevin O'Brien posted an article in Royals
On Saturday, the Royals and Brewers made a headlines-grabbing swap in an effort to boost both of their clubs. Kansas City acquired outfielder Isaac Collins and reliever Nick Mears in exchange for reliever Angel Zerpa. After acquiring free-agent outfielder Lane Thomas earlier this week, the Royals have now improved their outfield depth with this latest addition from Milwaukee. That said, it doesn't seem like Royals GM JJ Picollo is done just yet. Rogers wrote that the Royals front office is still looking to add to their lineup this offseason to improve an offense that ranked 26th in OPS and runs scored a season ago. Royals fans have been expecting a significant outfield upgrade this offseason, especially with rumors connecting Kansas City to big-name outfielders like Teoscar Hernandez, Jarren Duran, and Luis Robert Jr. That said, they shouldn't overlook this vital deal with the Brewers. This move checked a lot of boxes for Kansas City, and it still gives them the roster and financial flexibility they need for a deal later this offseason. Let's look at who the Royals acquired in Collins and Mears and what they gave up in Zerpa, who has been a key part of the Royals' bullpen the past couple of seasons. Royals Get Polished, Controllable Outfielder in Isaac Collins The main prize in the deal for the Royals is Collins, a 28-year-old outfielder who finished fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year race last season. A ninth-round pick out of Creighton, Collins isn't precisely a high-ceiling kind of player, but he provides the type of profile that the Royals were missing in the outfield last season until Mike Yastrzemski came over at the Trade Deadline. In 441 plate appearances, Collins slashed .263/.368/.411 with a .779 OPS and 122 wRC+. He also hit nine home runs, scored 56 runs, collected 54 RBI, stole 16 bases, and posted a 0.61 BB/K ratio. For context, Collins' BB/K ratio would've been the fourth-best mark of Royals hitters with 10 or more plate appearances last season, according to Fangraphs. Furthermore, Collins' strong plate discipline wasn't just evident in his BB/K ratio, but also in his strong O-Swing%, Whiff%, and BB%. The exit velocity and batted-ball metrics were a bit of a concern for Collins last season. He ranked in the 25th percentile in average EV, 16th percentile in barrel rate, and 33rd percentile in hard-hit rate. His 87.8 MPH average exit velocity would have ranked 10th last year among Royals outfielders, tying him with Kyle Isbel, who had a similar average EV. Thus, some feel that Collins may be a regression candidate in 2025, which Jack Stern of Brewer Fanatic wrote about in December. There certainly are some concerns with Collins when looking at his Statcast profile. That said, there are a few positives about his outlook in Kansas City for 2026 and beyond. First, he did a good job of pulling the ball well to both fields (he's a switch-hitter). When applying his 2025 spray chart to Kauffman Stadium, it seems like Collins wouldn't have missed a beat, though a few of the home runs to right field may have been short. Other than the home runs, his spray profile should transition seamlessly to Kansas City's home confines. Another positive about Collins is that his "struggles" seemed to stem from a September slump, which colored Brewers fans' outlook for him next season. When looking at his splits via Savant, he posted a .664 OPS in the last month of the year after three-straight months of an OPS over .845. While it makes sense that the Brewers may have used him more sparingly going into the postseason due to his end-of-the-season issues, his overall performance from 2025 was still strong and worthy of regular playing time. He also still showcased substantial OBP numbers throughout 2025, even in months that weren't great batting-average-wise. In September, his OBP was .345 despite a .191 average. In April and May, his OBP marks were .306 and .319, respectively. To compare, Royals outfielders ranked last in OBP with a .283 mark, according to Fangraphs. Thus, even when Collins was at his worst last year, his profile is still a significant upgrade over what they trotted out last year in the outfield. Collins' rolling xwOBA chart also showed some positive trends at the end of the season after an initial dip in September. That indicates that Collins may have also been a victim of some rough batted-ball luck, which should correct itself in 2026. Finally, the projections seem to paint Collins in a positive light for 2026. Steamer projects Collins to post a .232/.335/.370 slash with a .704 OPS and 101 wRC+. He is also projected to have a 0.52 BB/K ratio, .137 ISO, and .314 wOBA. Obviously, many of those projections are a regression from his 2025 numbers. However, the BB/K ratio is pretty stable, and the wOBA matches the second-best mark for Royals outfielders a season ago (which belonged to Adam Frazier). Collins may not be THE answer in the Royals outfield next year and long-term (though he doesn't become a free agent until 2031). But he is AN answer in the sense that he gives Kansas City the kind of plate discipline and overall skills (he had a +4 OAA defensively last year) that the Royals desperately need. Nick Mears Boosts the Royals Bullpen in Chase and Whiffs The Royals' bullpen showed significant improvement in 2025 thanks to Carlos Estevez, who brought stability to the closer's role, and to better overall depth in the middle innings. Kansas City's bullpen ranked 7th in reliever ERA, 12th in WHIP, and fourth in BB/9. However, Royals relievers struggled in one particular category: strikeouts. The group ranked 29th in K/9, and while it worked out for them in 2025, it's unlikely that the bullpen would be as fortunate in 2026 without some upgrades and significant improvement in some critical areas. When it came to why the bullpen struggled, Royals relievers had trouble generating chase and whiffs, which coincided with their strikeout struggles last year. According to Fangraphs, the Kansas City bullpen ranked 28th in O-Swing% (29.7%) and 30th in SwStr% (9.8%). Mears helps the Royals' bullpen in both of those categories. He posted a 37.3% O-Swing% and generated a 13% SwStr%. His 28% CSW (called-strike plus whiff) rate was also much better than the Royals bullpen's 26.9% CSW rate as a group, which ranked 27th last season. When it comes to his profile, Mears offers a three-pitch mix with substantial TJ Stuff+ numbers, which has helped him perform well in the chase and whiff categories. Mears' overall TJ Stuff+ was 107 last year, with his four-seamer, slider, and curveball posting grades of 63, 59, and 54, respectively. Those are all above-average marks, and he also posted above-average results in Zone% (55.7%) and chase rate (33.2%). An undrafted pitcher out of Sacramento (he went to Rocklin High School and then Sacramento City College), his best offering is his slider, which not only sported a 108 TJ Stuff+ but also a 46% chase and 38.4% whiff rate. Mears was effective against lefties and righties with the pitch, as he sported a .193 wOBA and 27.4% whiff rate with the slider against lefties and a .204 wOBA and 44.6% whiff rate against righties. A further breakdown of his slider's performance against lefties and righties can be seen in the data and heatmap below (courtesy of TJ Stats). Against lefties, he tended to attack hitters with the slider more middle and down. Against righties, he attacked more low and away. Both approaches produced results, as illustrated by his CSW marks of 35% and 40.2% against lefties and righties, respectively. The clip compilation below, showing strikeouts of Jurickson Profar and Julio Rodriguez, also demonstrates how productive Mears could be when he commanded the slider effectively. The primary concern with Mears is his fastball, which had good TJ Stuff+ numbers, but didn't generate much chase (22.7%) or whiff (14.6%). When looking at his four-seamer heatmap and data via TJ Stats, he did a good job of locating the ball up, but he seemed to struggle to get CSW and to give up productive contact (as illustrated by the mediocre xwOBACON marks). Allowing productive contact seemed to be an issue overall, as demonstrated by his .405 xwOBACON allowed last year. That said, if he can improve his xwOBACON on the four-seamer, it could go a long way toward better overall results in 2026. He certainly will be an interesting project for pitching coach Brian Sweeney and new assistant pitching coach Mike McFerran this spring in Surprise. If they can help with his four-seamer shape and command, he could end up being a solid setup man for the Royals in 2026 and beyond. Royals Willing to Part With Angel Zerpa This offseason, Rogers reported that the Royals were interested in acquiring a left-handed reliever who could be effective primarily against left-handed pitchers. That made me wonder if the Royals were planning on trading one of their lefties on the 40-man roster: Zerpa, Daniel Lynch IV, or Bailey Falter. Yesterday, Picollo showed they were willing to trade away Zerpa, even though he was one of the lefty relievers Matt Quatraro heavily utilized in medium-to-high-leverage situations. The Venezuelan lefty has always been a bit of a dilemma for the Royals the past couple of seasons. On one hand, he didn't walk batters (2.64 K/BB ratio), and he demonstrated durability, pitching 64.2 innings for the Royals last year. His ERA was a bit high for a setup man at 4.18, but his FIP was much better at 3.86, which was a career-high. And yet, it felt like the Royals had maxed out their hand with Zerpa and his outlook. He was a fine middle-innings reliever, but he didn't have the TJ Stuff+ profile to be anything more than that, as illustrated below. Zerpa sported a 97 overall TJ Stuff+ last year, with his sinker and slider the only pitches with grades over 50. He did flood the strike zone with a 54.7% zone rate. However, he sported mediocre chase (26.7%) and whiff (16.4%) rates. Considering the Royals' problems in those two areas last year, it made sense that the Royals were willing to part with Zerpa in a trade, especially if it meant getting a pitcher who could be better than Zerpa in whiff and chase. Now, the Brewers are an excellent organization, known for developing pitchers on a budget. Zerpa could be a success story for Milwaukee, and if so, kudos to them for another positive development. To be fair to Zerpa, his Steamer projections paint a rosy picture for 2026: 3.44 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 2.83 K/BB ratio, and 1.27 WHIP in 60 IP. That said, the Royals needed to give up something to get something needed in return this offseason. Zerpa was the odd man out in this case, and based on his metrics and outlook, I think trading the lefty was well worth the return they received in Collins and Mears. (Plus, Baseball Trade Values felt the same way, too.) Let's hope Picollo has more stellar moves like this one up his sleeve this winter, especially with their goal of returning to the postseason after missing out in 2025.- 2 comments
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Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images On Saturday, the Royals and Brewers made a headlines-grabbing swap in an effort to boost both of their clubs. Kansas City acquired outfielder Isaac Collins and reliever Nick Mears in exchange for reliever Angel Zerpa. After acquiring free-agent outfielder Lane Thomas earlier this week, the Royals have now improved their outfield depth with this latest addition from Milwaukee. That said, it doesn't seem like Royals GM JJ Picollo is done just yet. Rogers wrote that the Royals front office is still looking to add to their lineup this offseason to improve an offense that ranked 26th in OPS and runs scored a season ago. Royals fans have been expecting a significant outfield upgrade this offseason, especially with rumors connecting Kansas City to big-name outfielders like Teoscar Hernandez, Jarren Duran, and Luis Robert Jr. That said, they shouldn't overlook this vital deal with the Brewers. This move checked a lot of boxes for Kansas City, and it still gives them the roster and financial flexibility they need for a deal later this offseason. Let's look at who the Royals acquired in Collins and Mears and what they gave up in Zerpa, who has been a key part of the Royals' bullpen the past couple of seasons. Royals Get Polished, Controllable Outfielder in Isaac Collins The main prize in the deal for the Royals is Collins, a 28-year-old outfielder who finished fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year race last season. A ninth-round pick out of Creighton, Collins isn't precisely a high-ceiling kind of player, but he provides the type of profile that the Royals were missing in the outfield last season until Mike Yastrzemski came over at the Trade Deadline. In 441 plate appearances, Collins slashed .263/.368/.411 with a .779 OPS and 122 wRC+. He also hit nine home runs, scored 56 runs, collected 54 RBI, stole 16 bases, and posted a 0.61 BB/K ratio. For context, Collins' BB/K ratio would've been the fourth-best mark of Royals hitters with 10 or more plate appearances last season, according to Fangraphs. Furthermore, Collins' strong plate discipline wasn't just evident in his BB/K ratio, but also in his strong O-Swing%, Whiff%, and BB%. The exit velocity and batted-ball metrics were a bit of a concern for Collins last season. He ranked in the 25th percentile in average EV, 16th percentile in barrel rate, and 33rd percentile in hard-hit rate. His 87.8 MPH average exit velocity would have ranked 10th last year among Royals outfielders, tying him with Kyle Isbel, who had a similar average EV. Thus, some feel that Collins may be a regression candidate in 2025, which Jack Stern of Brewer Fanatic wrote about in December. There certainly are some concerns with Collins when looking at his Statcast profile. That said, there are a few positives about his outlook in Kansas City for 2026 and beyond. First, he did a good job of pulling the ball well to both fields (he's a switch-hitter). When applying his 2025 spray chart to Kauffman Stadium, it seems like Collins wouldn't have missed a beat, though a few of the home runs to right field may have been short. Other than the home runs, his spray profile should transition seamlessly to Kansas City's home confines. Another positive about Collins is that his "struggles" seemed to stem from a September slump, which colored Brewers fans' outlook for him next season. When looking at his splits via Savant, he posted a .664 OPS in the last month of the year after three-straight months of an OPS over .845. While it makes sense that the Brewers may have used him more sparingly going into the postseason due to his end-of-the-season issues, his overall performance from 2025 was still strong and worthy of regular playing time. He also still showcased substantial OBP numbers throughout 2025, even in months that weren't great batting-average-wise. In September, his OBP was .345 despite a .191 average. In April and May, his OBP marks were .306 and .319, respectively. To compare, Royals outfielders ranked last in OBP with a .283 mark, according to Fangraphs. Thus, even when Collins was at his worst last year, his profile is still a significant upgrade over what they trotted out last year in the outfield. Collins' rolling xwOBA chart also showed some positive trends at the end of the season after an initial dip in September. That indicates that Collins may have also been a victim of some rough batted-ball luck, which should correct itself in 2026. Finally, the projections seem to paint Collins in a positive light for 2026. Steamer projects Collins to post a .232/.335/.370 slash with a .704 OPS and 101 wRC+. He is also projected to have a 0.52 BB/K ratio, .137 ISO, and .314 wOBA. Obviously, many of those projections are a regression from his 2025 numbers. However, the BB/K ratio is pretty stable, and the wOBA matches the second-best mark for Royals outfielders a season ago (which belonged to Adam Frazier). Collins may not be THE answer in the Royals outfield next year and long-term (though he doesn't become a free agent until 2031). But he is AN answer in the sense that he gives Kansas City the kind of plate discipline and overall skills (he had a +4 OAA defensively last year) that the Royals desperately need. Nick Mears Boosts the Royals Bullpen in Chase and Whiffs The Royals' bullpen showed significant improvement in 2025 thanks to Carlos Estevez, who brought stability to the closer's role, and to better overall depth in the middle innings. Kansas City's bullpen ranked 7th in reliever ERA, 12th in WHIP, and fourth in BB/9. However, Royals relievers struggled in one particular category: strikeouts. The group ranked 29th in K/9, and while it worked out for them in 2025, it's unlikely that the bullpen would be as fortunate in 2026 without some upgrades and significant improvement in some critical areas. When it came to why the bullpen struggled, Royals relievers had trouble generating chase and whiffs, which coincided with their strikeout struggles last year. According to Fangraphs, the Kansas City bullpen ranked 28th in O-Swing% (29.7%) and 30th in SwStr% (9.8%). Mears helps the Royals' bullpen in both of those categories. He posted a 37.3% O-Swing% and generated a 13% SwStr%. His 28% CSW (called-strike plus whiff) rate was also much better than the Royals bullpen's 26.9% CSW rate as a group, which ranked 27th last season. When it comes to his profile, Mears offers a three-pitch mix with substantial TJ Stuff+ numbers, which has helped him perform well in the chase and whiff categories. Mears' overall TJ Stuff+ was 107 last year, with his four-seamer, slider, and curveball posting grades of 63, 59, and 54, respectively. Those are all above-average marks, and he also posted above-average results in Zone% (55.7%) and chase rate (33.2%). An undrafted pitcher out of Sacramento (he went to Rocklin High School and then Sacramento City College), his best offering is his slider, which not only sported a 108 TJ Stuff+ but also a 46% chase and 38.4% whiff rate. Mears was effective against lefties and righties with the pitch, as he sported a .193 wOBA and 27.4% whiff rate with the slider against lefties and a .204 wOBA and 44.6% whiff rate against righties. A further breakdown of his slider's performance against lefties and righties can be seen in the data and heatmap below (courtesy of TJ Stats). Against lefties, he tended to attack hitters with the slider more middle and down. Against righties, he attacked more low and away. Both approaches produced results, as illustrated by his CSW marks of 35% and 40.2% against lefties and righties, respectively. The clip compilation below, showing strikeouts of Jurickson Profar and Julio Rodriguez, also demonstrates how productive Mears could be when he commanded the slider effectively. The primary concern with Mears is his fastball, which had good TJ Stuff+ numbers, but didn't generate much chase (22.7%) or whiff (14.6%). When looking at his four-seamer heatmap and data via TJ Stats, he did a good job of locating the ball up, but he seemed to struggle to get CSW and to give up productive contact (as illustrated by the mediocre xwOBACON marks). Allowing productive contact seemed to be an issue overall, as demonstrated by his .405 xwOBACON allowed last year. That said, if he can improve his xwOBACON on the four-seamer, it could go a long way toward better overall results in 2026. He certainly will be an interesting project for pitching coach Brian Sweeney and new assistant pitching coach Mike McFerran this spring in Surprise. If they can help with his four-seamer shape and command, he could end up being a solid setup man for the Royals in 2026 and beyond. Royals Willing to Part With Angel Zerpa This offseason, Rogers reported that the Royals were interested in acquiring a left-handed reliever who could be effective primarily against left-handed pitchers. That made me wonder if the Royals were planning on trading one of their lefties on the 40-man roster: Zerpa, Daniel Lynch IV, or Bailey Falter. Yesterday, Picollo showed they were willing to trade away Zerpa, even though he was one of the lefty relievers Matt Quatraro heavily utilized in medium-to-high-leverage situations. The Venezuelan lefty has always been a bit of a dilemma for the Royals the past couple of seasons. On one hand, he didn't walk batters (2.64 K/BB ratio), and he demonstrated durability, pitching 64.2 innings for the Royals last year. His ERA was a bit high for a setup man at 4.18, but his FIP was much better at 3.86, which was a career-high. And yet, it felt like the Royals had maxed out their hand with Zerpa and his outlook. He was a fine middle-innings reliever, but he didn't have the TJ Stuff+ profile to be anything more than that, as illustrated below. Zerpa sported a 97 overall TJ Stuff+ last year, with his sinker and slider the only pitches with grades over 50. He did flood the strike zone with a 54.7% zone rate. However, he sported mediocre chase (26.7%) and whiff (16.4%) rates. Considering the Royals' problems in those two areas last year, it made sense that the Royals were willing to part with Zerpa in a trade, especially if it meant getting a pitcher who could be better than Zerpa in whiff and chase. Now, the Brewers are an excellent organization, known for developing pitchers on a budget. Zerpa could be a success story for Milwaukee, and if so, kudos to them for another positive development. To be fair to Zerpa, his Steamer projections paint a rosy picture for 2026: 3.44 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 2.83 K/BB ratio, and 1.27 WHIP in 60 IP. That said, the Royals needed to give up something to get something needed in return this offseason. Zerpa was the odd man out in this case, and based on his metrics and outlook, I think trading the lefty was well worth the return they received in Collins and Mears. (Plus, Baseball Trade Values felt the same way, too.) Let's hope Picollo has more stellar moves like this one up his sleeve this winter, especially with their goal of returning to the postseason after missing out in 2025. View full article
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Agreed. He definitely was the one I wanted the Royals to extend first. The left side of the infield is going o to be in incredible shape long term.
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The Royals have been busy on the transactional end since the conclusion of the MLB Winter Meetings. Over the past week, they have signed free-agent outfielder Lane Thomas, inked third-baseman Maikel Garcia to a five-year extension, and traded reliever Angel Zerpa to Milwaukee for outfielder Isaac Collins and reliever Nick Mears. However, a couple of deals that shouldn't get lost in the shuffle are the signings of infielder Kevin Newman and reliever (and former Royal) Jose Cuas to Minor League deals. Newman is the bigger signing of the two, as he played last season with the Angels. In 57 games and 116 plate appearances, the former Pirates first-round draft pick slashed .202/.292/.272 with a .481 OPS and 27 wRC+. He also hit two home runs, scored 13 runs, and posted an fWAR of -0.7. Not only were Newman's metrics not great, but he also put up lackluster exit velocity, hard-hit, and barrel metrics. Conversely, he still showed solid plate discipline and contact ability, as evidenced by his TJ Stats summary from a season ago with the Angels. With an 87th percentile whiff rate and 85th percentile Z-Contact%, Newman is the kind of infielder who can serve as an emergency utility infielder off the bench. On a positive note, he had a much better season in 2024 with the Diamondbacks. In 111 games and 311 plate appearances with Arizona, he slashed .278/.311/.375 with a .686 OPS, 0.31 BB/K ratio, and 89 wRC+. He also hit three home runs, scored 41 runs, and accumulated a 1.4 fWAR with the Diamondbacks, the second-highest single-season mark of his career. If Newman can replicate something close to his 2024 mark, he could be the bench utility player they need for 2026. That also lessens Kansas City's need to bring back Adam Frazier for next season. While not expensive, Frazier would cost a lot more than Newman and may not produce much more value than the 32-year-old University of Arizona product (Frazier has combined for 0.2 fWAR over the past two seasons). Another Minor League move the Royals made this week was bringing Cuas back. Unlike Newman, Cuas does not have an invite to Spring Training, though that could change depending on how things shake up pitching-wise this winter. After putting up a 3.58 ERA in 37.2 IP in 2022 and a 4.54 ERA in 41.2 IP in 2023, the Royals traded Cuas to the Chicago Cubs in 2023 at the Trade Deadline for outfielder Nelson Velázquez. Cuas posted a 3.04 ERA in 23.1 IP with the Cubs that season, but he only posted a 1.36 K/BB ratio and had a 4.90 FIP. Unsurprisingly, regression hit him hard in 2024 with the Cubs, as he posted a 7.43 ERA, 2.33 K/BB ratio, and 6.02 FIP in 9 games and 13.1 IP with Chicago. As a result of these poor metrics, the Cubs designated him for assignment in June of that year. The Toronto Blue Jays claimed him on waivers, hoping to get him back to the 2023 form, but it didn't pan out as expected. Cuas posted a 9.00 ERA, 0.75 K/BB ratio, and 11.50 FIP in four outings and three IP. The Blue Jays then designated him for assignment in September and eventually released him. Since being released by the Blue Jays, Cuas has been in the Braves and Phillies organizations, but has not pitched at the Major League level. Last season, the 31-year-old righty posted a 3.22 ERA, 1.28 K/BB ratio, and 3.68 FIP in Double-A Columbus (Atlanta), and a 13.50 ERA, 0.80 K/BB ratio, and 10.81 FIP with Triple-A Lehigh Valley (Philadelphia). With the Iron Pigs, Cuas struggled with generating whiffs and chase, and his stuff didn't profile well either, via TJ Stats. Even though his tenure in the Braves and Phillies organizations wasn't ideal, the Royals are likely hoping that Cuas can provide some depth and stability to the Triple-A Omaha bullpen in 2026. The Storm Chasers struggled with pitching last season, posting a 5.49 ERA, the second-worst mark in the International League. Photo Credit: © Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images View full rumor
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The Royals have been busy on the transactional end since the conclusion of the MLB Winter Meetings. Over the past week, they have signed free-agent outfielder Lane Thomas, inked third-baseman Maikel Garcia to a five-year extension, and traded reliever Angel Zerpa to Milwaukee for outfielder Isaac Collins and reliever Nick Mears. However, a couple of deals that shouldn't get lost in the shuffle are the signings of infielder Kevin Newman and reliever (and former Royal) Jose Cuas to Minor League deals. Newman is the bigger signing of the two, as he played last season with the Angels. In 57 games and 116 plate appearances, the former Pirates first-round draft pick slashed .202/.292/.272 with a .481 OPS and 27 wRC+. He also hit two home runs, scored 13 runs, and posted an fWAR of -0.7. Not only were Newman's metrics not great, but he also put up lackluster exit velocity, hard-hit, and barrel metrics. Conversely, he still showed solid plate discipline and contact ability, as evidenced by his TJ Stats summary from a season ago with the Angels. With an 87th percentile whiff rate and 85th percentile Z-Contact%, Newman is the kind of infielder who can serve as an emergency utility infielder off the bench. On a positive note, he had a much better season in 2024 with the Diamondbacks. In 111 games and 311 plate appearances with Arizona, he slashed .278/.311/.375 with a .686 OPS, 0.31 BB/K ratio, and 89 wRC+. He also hit three home runs, scored 41 runs, and accumulated a 1.4 fWAR with the Diamondbacks, the second-highest single-season mark of his career. If Newman can replicate something close to his 2024 mark, he could be the bench utility player they need for 2026. That also lessens Kansas City's need to bring back Adam Frazier for next season. While not expensive, Frazier would cost a lot more than Newman and may not produce much more value than the 32-year-old University of Arizona product (Frazier has combined for 0.2 fWAR over the past two seasons). Another Minor League move the Royals made this week was bringing Cuas back. Unlike Newman, Cuas does not have an invite to Spring Training, though that could change depending on how things shake up pitching-wise this winter. After putting up a 3.58 ERA in 37.2 IP in 2022 and a 4.54 ERA in 41.2 IP in 2023, the Royals traded Cuas to the Chicago Cubs in 2023 at the Trade Deadline for outfielder Nelson Velázquez. Cuas posted a 3.04 ERA in 23.1 IP with the Cubs that season, but he only posted a 1.36 K/BB ratio and had a 4.90 FIP. Unsurprisingly, regression hit him hard in 2024 with the Cubs, as he posted a 7.43 ERA, 2.33 K/BB ratio, and 6.02 FIP in 9 games and 13.1 IP with Chicago. As a result of these poor metrics, the Cubs designated him for assignment in June of that year. The Toronto Blue Jays claimed him on waivers, hoping to get him back to the 2023 form, but it didn't pan out as expected. Cuas posted a 9.00 ERA, 0.75 K/BB ratio, and 11.50 FIP in four outings and three IP. The Blue Jays then designated him for assignment in September and eventually released him. Since being released by the Blue Jays, Cuas has been in the Braves and Phillies organizations, but has not pitched at the Major League level. Last season, the 31-year-old righty posted a 3.22 ERA, 1.28 K/BB ratio, and 3.68 FIP in Double-A Columbus (Atlanta), and a 13.50 ERA, 0.80 K/BB ratio, and 10.81 FIP with Triple-A Lehigh Valley (Philadelphia). With the Iron Pigs, Cuas struggled with generating whiffs and chase, and his stuff didn't profile well either, via TJ Stats. Even though his tenure in the Braves and Phillies organizations wasn't ideal, the Royals are likely hoping that Cuas can provide some depth and stability to the Triple-A Omaha bullpen in 2026. The Storm Chasers struggled with pitching last season, posting a 5.49 ERA, the second-worst mark in the International League. Photo Credit: © Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
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Image courtesy of © William Purnell-Imagn Images On Friday, the Royals made some big headlines in the baseball world, as Jeff Passan reported that the Kansas City Royals had agreed on a five-year extension with third baseman Maikel Garcia. Royals MLB.com writer Anne Rogers finalized the details of Garcia's deal, which totaled $57.5 million in guaranteed money over the five-year span, with a club option for 2031. Rogers shared more details about the deal in her whole piece on MLB.com later in the afternoon. He will be making a little over $4 million next season, which would have been his first year of arbitration. The deal gives Garcia financial stability through the 2030 season and shows the Royals' long-term commitment to their young infielder. That said, his first year is a bit of a discount for the Royals. His estimated salary in arbitration was $5.8 million, according to MLB Trade Rumors. Thus, the Royals saved nearly $2 million for next year's payroll by agreeing to this Garcia extension. Therefore, this is an interesting deal for Garcia and the Royals, as it maintains their ability to build their roster in the short term this offseason while still providing a blueprint for the long term. Let's look at why Royals GM JJ Picollo gave Garcia this extension, the long-term impact, and what other moves are on the horizon in Kansas City in the wake of this extension announcement. Garcia's Hitting Changes and Skill Improvement in 2025 The 25-year-old Royals infielder has been a key part of the Royals since the 2023 season, and he showed flashes of strong play in 2023 and 2024. In his first full season in 2023, Garcia posted an 85 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR in 515 plate appearances. However, things regressed a little bit in 2024, especially at the plate. In 626 plate appearances, he posted a 71 wRC+ and 1.2 fWAR. He hit seven home runs, three more than he did a season ago. Garcia also scored 84 runs and stole 37 bases, both improvements from what he did in his rookie year (59 and 23, respectively). Unfortunately, his average exit velocity declined (91.8 MPH to 90.4 MPH), as did his hard-hit rate (50.6% to 42.8%). That led to a .270 wOBA, a 29-point decline from his 2023 mark. After a disappointing season in 2024, Garcia went to the drawing board and retooled some things in his swing in 2025. With the help of hitting coach Alec Zumwalt, the Venezuelan infielder made some modifications to his hands and leg kick, which was noticeable in Spring Training last year. Resting the bat on his shoulder in his batting stance and opting for a toe tap instead of a leg kick did wonders for his batted-ball metrics and overall results. In 666 plate appearances, Garcia slashed .286/.351/.449 with an .800 OPS and 121 wRC+. He also hit 16 home runs, a career-high, scored 81 runs, and collected 74 RBI, the latter being a career-high. The stolen bases fell to 23, a bit of a regression from a year ago. However, he traded speed for power, which was welcomed by a Royals lineup that ranked 26th in runs scored and home runs last season. The Royals' primary third baseman also saw a boost in many important Statcast categories last year. His 91.3 MPH average exit velocity was 0.9 MPH higher than his previous average. His 45.1% hard-hit rate was 2.3% higher than a year ago. Lastly, his 9.7 average launch angle and 5.6% barrel rate were career-highs. When looking at his overall Statcast profile via TJ Stats, he demonstrated some encouraging growth in his batted-ball categories while still maintaining elite plate discipline skills. That kind of combination made him one of the Royals' most effective hitters, skills-wise, in 2025. Now, Garcia's overall profile is far from perfect. He still struggled to consistently pull the ball last year, as he ranked in the 9th percentile in pull rate and 23rd percentile in Pull Air%. His barrel rate and max EV percentiles were also pedestrian, at the 24th and 34th percentiles, respectively. That said, as illustrated in his hits spray chart from a season ago, he did a much better job of pulling the ball for home runs, even if the other base hits were a bit more sprayed out. A lot of his singles were in the gaps. However, most of his extra base hits were pulled, whether they were home runs or doubles. For context, let's take a look at his hits spray chart from 2023 and 2024. Garcia sprayed the ball a lot more around the field and had more doubles and triples in the gaps. However, the home runs were a little more spread out, resulting in less consistency in launched batted balls and, thus, fewer home runs overall in those 2023 and 2024 seasons. Furthermore, by improving his ability to pull and launch the ball, he also posted a better xwOBA trend in 2025 than in his other seasons, which can be seen in the chart below via Savant. Not only did Garcia see much more consistency in his xwOBA trend last year, but he also saw extraordinary positive spikes that he never reached in 2023 or 2024. That is a positive sign that what he did in 2025 illustrated legitimate hitting growth and wasn't a fluke. These positive pull and xwOBA trends only justify the five-year extension that Garcia received from the Royals on Friday. The power is developing nicely and will only mature as he gets older and adds more natural strength to his frame. What Kind of Impact Does Garcia Have On the Royals' Payroll Long Term? The signing of Garcia has the most significant impact on the left side of the Royals' infield, as Kansas City has its shortstop (Bobby Witt Jr.) and third baseman (Garcia) under contract for quite some time. Given that both players won Gold Gloves last year and combined for 13.6 fWAR, that kind of stability is essential for the Royals to be a competitive club in the long term. What's interesting about the deal is that the Royals will have Witt and Garcia until at least 2030. After 2030, Witt can opt out of the 11-year contract he signed before the 2024 season, and Garcia will be in the final year of his deal (he has that club option in 2030). Rogers made a note of this in her piece on Garcia's signing. Witt is the franchise star for the Royals, but as baseball fans know, a team needs more than one guy to win a World Series. Salvador Perez has had a nice end-of-career resurgence, but he'll be 36 this season and may only have a couple of years left in his illustrious career. Thus, the Royals need young players that they can surround Witt with. Garcia is the first piece Kansas City has committed to in building its long-term offensive core. With Garcia signed, the main question is this: who are the Royals going to commit to next? Vinnie Pasquantino seems like the most logical choice, especially after leading the team in home runs (32) and RBI (113). He is in his first year of arbitration this offseason, much like Garcia. Unfortunately, Pasquantino doesn't offer the defensive value (-8 career OAA) or baserunning (-10.3 career Baserunning Runs above average). As a result, he has only accumulated a 4.5 fWAR in his career, much lower than Garcia's (9.1 fWAR). That makes it a lot tougher for the Royals to commit in the long term to Pasquantino when all of his value is tied to one particular area (i.e., hitting). Other extension options could be Jac Caglianone or Carter Jensen, both rookies a season ago. An extension now for both of them could be cheap, and we have seen other teams give out extensions to players before they had much, if any, MLB time. Colt Keith of the Tigers and Kristian Campbell of the Red Sox are two examples. Both Caglianone and Jensen have their fair shares of upside and risks as extension candidates. Caglianone may have the best power tool in the organization, even at the Major League level, but he struggled in his rookie debut, posting a 46 wRC+ and -1.6 fWAR in 232 plate appearances. He will need to improve his launch angle and some of his swing decisions in 2026 for the Royals to give him an extension. As for Jensen, his MLB debut went as well as it possibly could've. In 69 plate appearances, he posted a 159 wRC+ and 0.7 fWAR. His Statcast profile was pretty immaculate as well, with many of his Statcast categories ranking in the upper percentiles of the league, as seen in his TJ Stats summary below. That said, while Jensen's debut was impressive, it was only 69 plate appearances. The Royals need a larger sample from him in 2026 if they are going to make a significant financial commitment, especially at his age (22). Nonetheless, Caglianone and Jensen may be better extension candidates than Pasquantino, mainly because they hold better upside value and are both much younger than Pasquantino (28). What's the Next Big Move This Offseason? The Royals likely won't extend another player under arbitration this offseason. Conversely, they have more moves to make, especially when it comes to rounding out their lineup, preferably in the outfield. Passan, in his write-up about the Garcia deal, mentioned that the Royals have been inquiring heavily in the trade market. While he noted the Royals have been inquiring with the Red Sox about Jarren Duran, which is not new, he said they have also been inquiring with the Nationals regarding shortstop CJ Abrams and pitcher MacKenzie Gore. Abrams and Gore is an interesting discussion, mainly because Abrams plays the same position as Witt, and Gore is a pitcher. That said, Abrams has been rumored to be a candidate to move positions, especially after posting a -11 OAA last year at shortstop for the Nationals. The former Padres first-round pick could move to second base or possibly left field, where his speed and athleticism should profile well. Abrams' Statcast percentiles weren't eye-popping, but he still has some upside at 25, and he pulled the ball effectively last year for Washington as well. As for Gore, his possible acquisition may be a contingency plan for the Royals' rotation, especially if they need to trade away Cole Ragans for a big-time outfielder like Duran or someone else on the trade market (maybe Teoscar Hernandez, though he wouldn't be worth an asset like Ragans). Picollo, during the Winter Meetings, mentioned that the Royals needed an "ace" like Ragans to be competitive in the postseason. Could Gore fill that "Ragans" role? The TJ Stats summary profile for Gore compares quite favorably to Ragans', which could force the Royals to pull the trigger on a Ragans trade this offseason. Granted, while trade talks are circulating even more since the conclusion of the Winter Meetings, the Royals still have a lot of legwork to do to make one or any of these deals a reality. A lot of moving parts have to click first, and that could take weeks. Still, the Royals are going to be aggressive this offseason, not only in building their long-term future, as was the case with Garcia, but also in shaping their team for 2026. Garcia's contract stability gives Picollo one less deal to worry about, which should help him focus on that much-needed big-time trade or free-agent signing this offseason. View full article
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How Does the Maikel Garcia Extension Mold the Royals' Offseason Plans?
Kevin O'Brien posted an article in Royals
On Friday, the Royals made some big headlines in the baseball world, as Jeff Passan reported that the Kansas City Royals had agreed on a five-year extension with third baseman Maikel Garcia. Royals MLB.com writer Anne Rogers finalized the details of Garcia's deal, which totaled $57.5 million in guaranteed money over the five-year span, with a club option for 2031. Rogers shared more details about the deal in her whole piece on MLB.com later in the afternoon. He will be making a little over $4 million next season, which would have been his first year of arbitration. The deal gives Garcia financial stability through the 2030 season and shows the Royals' long-term commitment to their young infielder. That said, his first year is a bit of a discount for the Royals. His estimated salary in arbitration was $5.8 million, according to MLB Trade Rumors. Thus, the Royals saved nearly $2 million for next year's payroll by agreeing to this Garcia extension. Therefore, this is an interesting deal for Garcia and the Royals, as it maintains their ability to build their roster in the short term this offseason while still providing a blueprint for the long term. Let's look at why Royals GM JJ Picollo gave Garcia this extension, the long-term impact, and what other moves are on the horizon in Kansas City in the wake of this extension announcement. Garcia's Hitting Changes and Skill Improvement in 2025 The 25-year-old Royals infielder has been a key part of the Royals since the 2023 season, and he showed flashes of strong play in 2023 and 2024. In his first full season in 2023, Garcia posted an 85 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR in 515 plate appearances. However, things regressed a little bit in 2024, especially at the plate. In 626 plate appearances, he posted a 71 wRC+ and 1.2 fWAR. He hit seven home runs, three more than he did a season ago. Garcia also scored 84 runs and stole 37 bases, both improvements from what he did in his rookie year (59 and 23, respectively). Unfortunately, his average exit velocity declined (91.8 MPH to 90.4 MPH), as did his hard-hit rate (50.6% to 42.8%). That led to a .270 wOBA, a 29-point decline from his 2023 mark. After a disappointing season in 2024, Garcia went to the drawing board and retooled some things in his swing in 2025. With the help of hitting coach Alec Zumwalt, the Venezuelan infielder made some modifications to his hands and leg kick, which was noticeable in Spring Training last year. Resting the bat on his shoulder in his batting stance and opting for a toe tap instead of a leg kick did wonders for his batted-ball metrics and overall results. In 666 plate appearances, Garcia slashed .286/.351/.449 with an .800 OPS and 121 wRC+. He also hit 16 home runs, a career-high, scored 81 runs, and collected 74 RBI, the latter being a career-high. The stolen bases fell to 23, a bit of a regression from a year ago. However, he traded speed for power, which was welcomed by a Royals lineup that ranked 26th in runs scored and home runs last season. The Royals' primary third baseman also saw a boost in many important Statcast categories last year. His 91.3 MPH average exit velocity was 0.9 MPH higher than his previous average. His 45.1% hard-hit rate was 2.3% higher than a year ago. Lastly, his 9.7 average launch angle and 5.6% barrel rate were career-highs. When looking at his overall Statcast profile via TJ Stats, he demonstrated some encouraging growth in his batted-ball categories while still maintaining elite plate discipline skills. That kind of combination made him one of the Royals' most effective hitters, skills-wise, in 2025. Now, Garcia's overall profile is far from perfect. He still struggled to consistently pull the ball last year, as he ranked in the 9th percentile in pull rate and 23rd percentile in Pull Air%. His barrel rate and max EV percentiles were also pedestrian, at the 24th and 34th percentiles, respectively. That said, as illustrated in his hits spray chart from a season ago, he did a much better job of pulling the ball for home runs, even if the other base hits were a bit more sprayed out. A lot of his singles were in the gaps. However, most of his extra base hits were pulled, whether they were home runs or doubles. For context, let's take a look at his hits spray chart from 2023 and 2024. Garcia sprayed the ball a lot more around the field and had more doubles and triples in the gaps. However, the home runs were a little more spread out, resulting in less consistency in launched batted balls and, thus, fewer home runs overall in those 2023 and 2024 seasons. Furthermore, by improving his ability to pull and launch the ball, he also posted a better xwOBA trend in 2025 than in his other seasons, which can be seen in the chart below via Savant. Not only did Garcia see much more consistency in his xwOBA trend last year, but he also saw extraordinary positive spikes that he never reached in 2023 or 2024. That is a positive sign that what he did in 2025 illustrated legitimate hitting growth and wasn't a fluke. These positive pull and xwOBA trends only justify the five-year extension that Garcia received from the Royals on Friday. The power is developing nicely and will only mature as he gets older and adds more natural strength to his frame. What Kind of Impact Does Garcia Have On the Royals' Payroll Long Term? The signing of Garcia has the most significant impact on the left side of the Royals' infield, as Kansas City has its shortstop (Bobby Witt Jr.) and third baseman (Garcia) under contract for quite some time. Given that both players won Gold Gloves last year and combined for 13.6 fWAR, that kind of stability is essential for the Royals to be a competitive club in the long term. What's interesting about the deal is that the Royals will have Witt and Garcia until at least 2030. After 2030, Witt can opt out of the 11-year contract he signed before the 2024 season, and Garcia will be in the final year of his deal (he has that club option in 2030). Rogers made a note of this in her piece on Garcia's signing. Witt is the franchise star for the Royals, but as baseball fans know, a team needs more than one guy to win a World Series. Salvador Perez has had a nice end-of-career resurgence, but he'll be 36 this season and may only have a couple of years left in his illustrious career. Thus, the Royals need young players that they can surround Witt with. Garcia is the first piece Kansas City has committed to in building its long-term offensive core. With Garcia signed, the main question is this: who are the Royals going to commit to next? Vinnie Pasquantino seems like the most logical choice, especially after leading the team in home runs (32) and RBI (113). He is in his first year of arbitration this offseason, much like Garcia. Unfortunately, Pasquantino doesn't offer the defensive value (-8 career OAA) or baserunning (-10.3 career Baserunning Runs above average). As a result, he has only accumulated a 4.5 fWAR in his career, much lower than Garcia's (9.1 fWAR). That makes it a lot tougher for the Royals to commit in the long term to Pasquantino when all of his value is tied to one particular area (i.e., hitting). Other extension options could be Jac Caglianone or Carter Jensen, both rookies a season ago. An extension now for both of them could be cheap, and we have seen other teams give out extensions to players before they had much, if any, MLB time. Colt Keith of the Tigers and Kristian Campbell of the Red Sox are two examples. Both Caglianone and Jensen have their fair shares of upside and risks as extension candidates. Caglianone may have the best power tool in the organization, even at the Major League level, but he struggled in his rookie debut, posting a 46 wRC+ and -1.6 fWAR in 232 plate appearances. He will need to improve his launch angle and some of his swing decisions in 2026 for the Royals to give him an extension. As for Jensen, his MLB debut went as well as it possibly could've. In 69 plate appearances, he posted a 159 wRC+ and 0.7 fWAR. His Statcast profile was pretty immaculate as well, with many of his Statcast categories ranking in the upper percentiles of the league, as seen in his TJ Stats summary below. That said, while Jensen's debut was impressive, it was only 69 plate appearances. The Royals need a larger sample from him in 2026 if they are going to make a significant financial commitment, especially at his age (22). Nonetheless, Caglianone and Jensen may be better extension candidates than Pasquantino, mainly because they hold better upside value and are both much younger than Pasquantino (28). What's the Next Big Move This Offseason? The Royals likely won't extend another player under arbitration this offseason. Conversely, they have more moves to make, especially when it comes to rounding out their lineup, preferably in the outfield. Passan, in his write-up about the Garcia deal, mentioned that the Royals have been inquiring heavily in the trade market. While he noted the Royals have been inquiring with the Red Sox about Jarren Duran, which is not new, he said they have also been inquiring with the Nationals regarding shortstop CJ Abrams and pitcher MacKenzie Gore. Abrams and Gore is an interesting discussion, mainly because Abrams plays the same position as Witt, and Gore is a pitcher. That said, Abrams has been rumored to be a candidate to move positions, especially after posting a -11 OAA last year at shortstop for the Nationals. The former Padres first-round pick could move to second base or possibly left field, where his speed and athleticism should profile well. Abrams' Statcast percentiles weren't eye-popping, but he still has some upside at 25, and he pulled the ball effectively last year for Washington as well. As for Gore, his possible acquisition may be a contingency plan for the Royals' rotation, especially if they need to trade away Cole Ragans for a big-time outfielder like Duran or someone else on the trade market (maybe Teoscar Hernandez, though he wouldn't be worth an asset like Ragans). Picollo, during the Winter Meetings, mentioned that the Royals needed an "ace" like Ragans to be competitive in the postseason. Could Gore fill that "Ragans" role? The TJ Stats summary profile for Gore compares quite favorably to Ragans', which could force the Royals to pull the trigger on a Ragans trade this offseason. Granted, while trade talks are circulating even more since the conclusion of the Winter Meetings, the Royals still have a lot of legwork to do to make one or any of these deals a reality. A lot of moving parts have to click first, and that could take weeks. Still, the Royals are going to be aggressive this offseason, not only in building their long-term future, as was the case with Garcia, but also in shaping their team for 2026. Garcia's contract stability gives Picollo one less deal to worry about, which should help him focus on that much-needed big-time trade or free-agent signing this offseason.- 2 comments
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Royals Sign Lane Thomas to One-Year Deal
Kevin O'Brien posted a topic in Royals Keep Front Page News
Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-Imagn Images After missing out on Mike Yastrzemski (who opted to sign a two-year deal with the Atlanta Braves), the Royals acquired some much-needed outfield help on Thursday night. According to Will Sammon of The Athletic, Kansas City signed free-agent outfielder Lane Thomas to a one-year, $5.2 million deal with $1 million in incentives. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com posted the financial details of Thomas' deal on social media. Thomas has spent the last 1.5 seasons with the Guardians and previously played for the Nationals. 2025 was a tough season for Thomas, as he was limited to 39 games and 142 plate appearances due to a wrist injury and plantar fasciitis, which landed him on the IL twice. In that small sample, Thomas slashed .160/.246/.272 with a .518 OPS and 48 wRC+. He also had a -0.5 fWAR, the worst mark of his career, and his Statcast percentiles were pretty poor as well, as illustrated in his TJ Stats Statcast summary below. In addition to ranking in the first percentile in wOBA and xwOBA, he also ranked in the 1st percentile in LA Sweet-Spot percentage, 2nd percentile in Z-Contact percentage, 3rd percentile in strikeout rate, 7th percentile in whiff rate, and 8th percentile in hard-hit rate. The only things Thomas did well at the plate last season were not to chase (83rd percentile O-Swing%) and draw a decent number of walks (72nd percentile BB%). While the numbers from last year aren't impressive, Thomas is an intriguing signing who comes with little financial risk (only a one-year deal) and boosts the depth in the outfield. He could also be used expertly by manager Matt Quatraro in centerfield with Kyle Isbel, who posted a 79 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR in 409 plate appearances last season. Thus, let's take a look at Thomas' overall profile and his outlook for the Royals in 2026. Thomas Is a Platoon Option With a Questionable Defensive History Royals GM JJ Picollo didn't acquire Thomas to be the primary answer to the Royals' outfielder woes from last season (they ranked last in wRC+ and fWAR). Instead, the 30-year-old former Blue Jays draft pick should help solidify the centerfield position, especially when Isbel needs a game off against left-handed starting pitchers. The overall numbers weren't great for Thomas last year, but he did perform better against lefties than righties, according to Fangraphs. Against righties, he posted a 43 wRC+, .094 ISO, and 0.25 BB/K ratio. Against lefties? He posted a 58 wRC+, .150 ISO, and 0.50 BB/K ratio. He posted better power and showcased stronger plate discipline against southpaws than righties last season. Over his career, Thomas has a 135 wRC+, .208 ISO, and a 0.48 BB/K ratio against lefties. That is much better than 84 wRC+, .163 ISO, and 0.27 BB/K ratio against righties. For further context, Isbel has a career 64 wRC+, .062 ISO, and 0.23 BB/K ratio against lefties. Thus, while Thomas wasn't sensational, he does offer more upside offensively against left-handed pitchers than Isbel. The Royals likely acquired Thomas because he can play centerfield. Unfortunately, the Royals didn't get much production from center fielders beyond Isbel, as shown in the table below. Unfortunately, the defensive data hasn't exactly been endearing to Thomas. Thomas struggled defensively for the Guardians in 2025. According to Statcast data, He posted a 0 FRV (fielding run value) and a -2 OAA (outs above average) for the Guardians last season, primarily playing center field. Furthermore, over his career, Thomas's defensive numbers aren't encouraging, based on OAA and FRV data. His career OAA is -17, and his FRV is -3. His best defensive season came in 2023 with the Nationals, when he posted a +2 FRV, but -4 OAA (primarily due to his porous play in right field that season). DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) isn't much kinder, as he had a career -18 DRS in the outfield and a -7 career DRS in centerfield, according to Fangraphs. Thus, it will be interesting to see how Thomas is utilized defensively and how he adjusts to Kauffman Stadium's spacious confines. So much of Isbel's value is tied to his defensive value and his ability to rob base hits and save runs. That ability was noticed this year by the experts, as he was a finalist for the AL Gold Glove award (though he came up short to Boston's Ceddanne Rafaela). Can Thomas at least provide average defensive value in centerfield when Isbel needs those games off? And if he can't defensively, can he at least make up for it on the hitting end? Looking at his 2024 metrics and Statcast data could give a hint as to whether the latter is possible. Could Thomas Bounce Back To His 2024 Self (At Least)? Last season wasn't exactly a fair portrait of Thomas due to his injuries. Thus, to get a fuller picture of Thomas, it is essential to look at what he did in 2024 when he played with the Nationals and Guardians (he was traded to Cleveland at the Trade Deadline that season). The numbers are not eye-popping, but they're certainly better than 2025 and not bad for a fourth outfielder. With the Nationals and Guardians in 2024, Thomas slashed .237/.309/.400 with a .709 OPS and 99 wRC+. He also posted a 1.4 fWAR, hit 15 home runs, scored 65 runs, collected 63 RBI, and stole 32 bases. He came up clutch in the postseason that year, launching a big grand slam against AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal in Game 5 of the ALDS. When looking at his TJ Stats Statcast summary from 2024, it was a lot more promising than his summary from his injury-plagued 2025. Thomas' 2024 percentiles weren't impressive, but they weren't as poor as in 2025. He also still posted a strong O-Swing% of 22.9%, ranking in the 87th percentile. Thus, Thomas can at least provide professional, disciplined at-bats at the end of the batting order, which the Royals didn't consistently do last season. To compare, let's look at Isbel's TJ Stats Statcast summary from last year. Isbel seems much better at making contact and avoiding strikeouts (69th percentile K rate). However, his hard-hit rate and barrel rate paled in comparison to what Thomas did in 2024. Hence, Isbel and Thomas could be a nice platoon in 2026, giving the Royals different elements from the centerfield position, depending on the pitching matchup. Ultimately, that's what Thomas is for the Royals: Another piece of the puzzle in the outfield, but not the leading solution. At $5.2 million, he's not paid to be that primary outfielder in 2026, either. If the Royals can get the 2024 value of Thomas in this upcoming season, then Kansas City will be satisfied with their first major pickup of the winter. The Royals have more and bigger moves on the horizon this offseason, especially if they want to improve their lineup for 2026 significantly. That said, acquiring Thomas is a nice piece that fills a need off the bench (right-handed centerfielder), who may carry some bigger upside if he can stay healthy. View full article -
After missing out on Mike Yastrzemski (who opted to sign a two-year deal with the Atlanta Braves), the Royals acquired some much-needed outfield help on Thursday night. According to Will Sammon of The Athletic, Kansas City signed free-agent outfielder Lane Thomas to a one-year, $5.2 million deal with $1 million in incentives. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com posted the financial details of Thomas' deal on social media. Thomas has spent the last 1.5 seasons with the Guardians and previously played for the Nationals. 2025 was a tough season for Thomas, as he was limited to 39 games and 142 plate appearances due to a wrist injury and plantar fasciitis, which landed him on the IL twice. In that small sample, Thomas slashed .160/.246/.272 with a .518 OPS and 48 wRC+. He also had a -0.5 fWAR, the worst mark of his career, and his Statcast percentiles were pretty poor as well, as illustrated in his TJ Stats Statcast summary below. In addition to ranking in the first percentile in wOBA and xwOBA, he also ranked in the 1st percentile in LA Sweet-Spot percentage, 2nd percentile in Z-Contact percentage, 3rd percentile in strikeout rate, 7th percentile in whiff rate, and 8th percentile in hard-hit rate. The only things Thomas did well at the plate last season were not to chase (83rd percentile O-Swing%) and draw a decent number of walks (72nd percentile BB%). While the numbers from last year aren't impressive, Thomas is an intriguing signing who comes with little financial risk (only a one-year deal) and boosts the depth in the outfield. He could also be used expertly by manager Matt Quatraro in centerfield with Kyle Isbel, who posted a 79 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR in 409 plate appearances last season. Thus, let's take a look at Thomas' overall profile and his outlook for the Royals in 2026. Thomas Is a Platoon Option With a Questionable Defensive History Royals GM JJ Picollo didn't acquire Thomas to be the primary answer to the Royals' outfielder woes from last season (they ranked last in wRC+ and fWAR). Instead, the 30-year-old former Blue Jays draft pick should help solidify the centerfield position, especially when Isbel needs a game off against left-handed starting pitchers. The overall numbers weren't great for Thomas last year, but he did perform better against lefties than righties, according to Fangraphs. Against righties, he posted a 43 wRC+, .094 ISO, and 0.25 BB/K ratio. Against lefties? He posted a 58 wRC+, .150 ISO, and 0.50 BB/K ratio. He posted better power and showcased stronger plate discipline against southpaws than righties last season. Over his career, Thomas has a 135 wRC+, .208 ISO, and a 0.48 BB/K ratio against lefties. That is much better than 84 wRC+, .163 ISO, and 0.27 BB/K ratio against righties. For further context, Isbel has a career 64 wRC+, .062 ISO, and 0.23 BB/K ratio against lefties. Thus, while Thomas wasn't sensational, he does offer more upside offensively against left-handed pitchers than Isbel. The Royals likely acquired Thomas because he can play centerfield. Unfortunately, the Royals didn't get much production from center fielders beyond Isbel, as shown in the table below. Unfortunately, the defensive data hasn't exactly been endearing to Thomas. Thomas struggled defensively for the Guardians in 2025. According to Statcast data, He posted a 0 FRV (fielding run value) and a -2 OAA (outs above average) for the Guardians last season, primarily playing center field. Furthermore, over his career, Thomas's defensive numbers aren't encouraging, based on OAA and FRV data. His career OAA is -17, and his FRV is -3. His best defensive season came in 2023 with the Nationals, when he posted a +2 FRV, but -4 OAA (primarily due to his porous play in right field that season). DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) isn't much kinder, as he had a career -18 DRS in the outfield and a -7 career DRS in centerfield, according to Fangraphs. Thus, it will be interesting to see how Thomas is utilized defensively and how he adjusts to Kauffman Stadium's spacious confines. So much of Isbel's value is tied to his defensive value and his ability to rob base hits and save runs. That ability was noticed this year by the experts, as he was a finalist for the AL Gold Glove award (though he came up short to Boston's Ceddanne Rafaela). Can Thomas at least provide average defensive value in centerfield when Isbel needs those games off? And if he can't defensively, can he at least make up for it on the hitting end? Looking at his 2024 metrics and Statcast data could give a hint as to whether the latter is possible. Could Thomas Bounce Back To His 2024 Self (At Least)? Last season wasn't exactly a fair portrait of Thomas due to his injuries. Thus, to get a fuller picture of Thomas, it is essential to look at what he did in 2024 when he played with the Nationals and Guardians (he was traded to Cleveland at the Trade Deadline that season). The numbers are not eye-popping, but they're certainly better than 2025 and not bad for a fourth outfielder. With the Nationals and Guardians in 2024, Thomas slashed .237/.309/.400 with a .709 OPS and 99 wRC+. He also posted a 1.4 fWAR, hit 15 home runs, scored 65 runs, collected 63 RBI, and stole 32 bases. He came up clutch in the postseason that year, launching a big grand slam against AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal in Game 5 of the ALDS. When looking at his TJ Stats Statcast summary from 2024, it was a lot more promising than his summary from his injury-plagued 2025. Thomas' 2024 percentiles weren't impressive, but they weren't as poor as in 2025. He also still posted a strong O-Swing% of 22.9%, ranking in the 87th percentile. Thus, Thomas can at least provide professional, disciplined at-bats at the end of the batting order, which the Royals didn't consistently do last season. To compare, let's look at Isbel's TJ Stats Statcast summary from last year. Isbel seems much better at making contact and avoiding strikeouts (69th percentile K rate). However, his hard-hit rate and barrel rate paled in comparison to what Thomas did in 2024. Hence, Isbel and Thomas could be a nice platoon in 2026, giving the Royals different elements from the centerfield position, depending on the pitching matchup. Ultimately, that's what Thomas is for the Royals: Another piece of the puzzle in the outfield, but not the leading solution. At $5.2 million, he's not paid to be that primary outfielder in 2026, either. If the Royals can get the 2024 value of Thomas in this upcoming season, then Kansas City will be satisfied with their first major pickup of the winter. The Royals have more and bigger moves on the horizon this offseason, especially if they want to improve their lineup for 2026 significantly. That said, acquiring Thomas is a nice piece that fills a need off the bench (right-handed centerfielder), who may carry some bigger upside if he can stay healthy.
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Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images Priority number one for Royals GM JJ Picollo has been acquiring a couple of outfielders to boost the lineup in 2026. He made that clear in many interviews during the Winter Meetings in Orlando this week, pointing out that they would hit the free-agent and trade markets this winter to accomplish those goals. However, that isn't the lone need roster-wise this offseason. According to Anne Rogers of MLB.com, Kansas City is also interested in acquiring a left-handed reliever who can specialize in getting left-handed hitters out. The Royals currently have three lefties projected to be in the bullpen on Opening Day in 2026, according to Roster Resource: Angel Zerpa, Daniel Lynch IV, and Bailey Falter. That said, based on Rogers' report, it seems like the Royals are looking for a boost in left-handed relief, or they could be on the verge of trading one of those three this offseason to acquire a much-needed bat. There aren't a ton of left-handed relief options on the free-agent market, according to Spotrac. The highest-profile lefty relievers in terms of market value are Caleb Thielbar ($5.4 million), Brent Suter ($4.4 million), Danny Coulombe ($4.3 million), and Andrew Chafin ($4.2 million). The youngest in the group is Chafin, who is 35. Hence, many of the lefties they could acquire on the free-agent market will not just be expensive but may not be worth more than a one-year deal, given their ages. One out-of-the-box option could be Foster Griffin, a former Royals draft pick who has spent the last three years in NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) with the Tokyo Giants. After posting a 1.62 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 1.78 FIP in 78 IP with the Giants last season, Griffin announced his intention to return to Major League Baseball in 2026. Given his time in Japan, it isn't easy to gauge his value or the interest of other teams this offseason. However, Griffin could be the lefty that the Royals desire this offseason, and he could also hold some long-term value as well, as he is just 30 years old. Let's dive into Griffin's background, both in the States and Japan, and what he could bring to the Royals' pitching staff next season. Former Royals First Round Pick Struggled With Injury and Generating Strikeouts Griffin has a long history with the Royals, as he was drafted 28th overall in the 2014 MLB Draft. The tall, projectable lefty, drafted out of The First Academy in Florida, had a rocky start in the Royals' system. Initially, Griffin struggled to strike batters out at each level in the Royals' farm system. From 2014 to 2017, across Rookie to Double-A ball, he posted a K rate over 20% just once (26.1% in High-A in 2017). As a result, his ERA numbers fluctuated over those four years. In 2014, he posted a 3.21 ERA in 28 IP in Rookie ball. In 2015, he had a 5.44 ERA in 102.2 IP in Low-A ball. In 2016, he had a 5.43 ERA in 132.2 IP across Low-A and High-A ball. And in 2017, his best season in the Minor Leagues at that point in his career, he put up a 3.35 ERA in 161.1 IP across the High-A and Double-A levels. His strong performance earned him a spot in the Futures game that season in Miami. When the strikeouts have been up, better results have tended to follow for Griffin in the Minor Leagues. In 2020, during the COVID pandemic, Griffin made his MLB debut. However, he suffered an elbow injury in his first career appearance (1.2 IP), and he underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after. The lefty was able to return in 2021, posting a 3.81 ERA, 23.1% K rate, and 1.29 WHIP in 52 IP in the Minor Leagues that season (which spanned from the Low-A to Triple-A levels). Griffin was able to make his way back to the Royals in 2022 after posting a 1.93 ERA and 29.4% K rate in Triple-A Omaha. However, his return to the big leagues was difficult, as he posted a 12.46 ERA, 5.65 FIP, and -8.3 K-BB%. As a result, the Royals designated him for assignment, and he was traded to the Blue Jays for right-handed pitcher Jonatan Bernal. Griffin primarily pitched in Triple-A Buffalo for the Blue Jays organization, posting a 2.31 ERA, 24.8% K rate, and 3.21 FIP in 23 IP. Unfortunately, that wasn't enough for him to earn much of a chance in Toronto, as he only made one appearance with the Blue Jays. When looking at his metrics via TJ Stats, Griffin leaned heavily on his cutter at the Major League level with mixed results. Between 6.1 IP with the Royals and Blue Jays, Griffin posted a 97 TJ Stuff+ overall. His cutter rated as his best pitch overall with a 102 TJ Stuff+, 56 grade, and 71.4% zone rate. While he did flood the zone well (54.1% overall zone rate), he struggled to generate chase (15.7%), whiff (25%), and gave up a lot of hard contact (.453 xwOBACON). As a result of these mediocre metrics, the Blue Jays released him at the conclusion of the 2022 season, and he signed with the Yomiuri Giants of the NPB (based in Tokyo). Turning Things Around in Tokyo With the Yomiuri Giants The move to Japan was a revelation for Griffin, who became a bona fide ace in his three seasons with the Giants. In 54 appearances and 315.2 IP with the Giants, he posted a 2.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a 4.55 K/BB ratio. He showcased excellent command with Yomiuri and limited the long ball in his tenure in the NPB. He posted HR/FB rates of 8.6% and 9.3% in 2023 and 2024 before posting a NPB career-low rate of 1.6%. Griffin also did an excellent job of not just limiting home runs but also inducing strong groundball rates with the Giants. That is evidenced by his 53.3%, 47.8%, and 48.9% groundball rates in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively. The strikeouts also improved and remained stable in his three-year tenure in Japan. From 2023 to 2025, he posted strikeout rates of 23.3%, 26.9%, and 25.1%, respectively. Considering the troubles some USA-born pitchers have had in their transition to the NPB (cough...Trevor Bauer...cough), Griffin's excellent performance in his three seasons with the Giants should be lauded. Griffin looked easy and dominant at times on the mound, as illustrated in this nine-strikeout performance he had last season against the Seibu Lions. In three seasons with the Yomiuri Giants, Griffin looked every bit like the ace the Royals were hoping he would develop into when they drafted him in the first round in the 2014 MLB Draft. What Could He Bring to the Pitching Staff in Kansas City? Obviously, the results were much better for Griffin in Tokyo than in the Minor Leagues here in the States. However, what was the difference for Griffin over the past three seasons? A lot could be credited to his change in pitch mix. That included the addition of a splitter and slider to his arsenal, as well as heavier usage of the four-seamer and less usage of the cutter. Below is a look at his pitch arsenal last year with the Giants, along with metrics for each pitch, including usage, velocity, strike rate, whiff rate, and batting average against. As Royals fans can see above, Griffin's most-thrown pitches were his four-seamer (39.2% usage), slider (18.2%), cutter (16.2%), and changeup (10.6%). He threw the knuckle curve (5.8%), splitter (5.7%), and two-seamer (4.3%) more sparingly. However, his seven-pitch mix last year was much more robust than his four-pitch repertoire back in 2022. His changeup, splitter, and slider were his best offerings in terms of whiff rate, as they generated rates of 50%, 42.9%, and 37.8%, respectively. While the four-seamer didn't create a ton of whiff (13.8%), he threw strikes with it (48.1% strike rate) and limited productive contact (.232 batting average against). Even though Griffin averaged only 90.2 MPH on the four-seamer, he was able to attack hitters with the offering on the edges, especially left-handed ones, as illustrated in the clip below. The four-seamer was not a great swing-and-miss offering. Still, it set up his other offerings well, especially his changeup and slider, his primary offspeed and breaking offerings, respectively. His changeup was his best swing-and-miss pitch, as it sported a 50% whiff rate. The pitch had similar movement to his four-seamer but considerable vertical drop and a sizable velocity difference (8.6 MPH, specifically). Those factors helped produce nasty whiffs like this one below. When it came to his slider, the breaking offering averaged 80.3 MPH, an even greater velocity drop from the four-seamer (9.9 MPH difference). That helped him induce a whiff rate of 37.8% on the pitch. Griffin's slider was not a loopy one but a late-breaking one, which contributed heavily to his success with it during his tenure with the Giants. The pitch was a nasty offering, especially for left-handed hitters, as seen in the clip below against the Lions. Griffin presents a unique weapon for Kansas City, should JJ Picollo opt to sign him this offseason. As seen in the clips below and in his overall numbers, the 30-year-old lefty can be an effective middle-innings reliever who can shut down left-handed batters in key spots, at the very least. His seven-pitch arsenal is diverse enough to be effective over 1-3 innings stretches, which is what the Royals need over the course of a full 162-game season. Furthermore, there could be some spot starter upside with Griffin as well, should they decide to commit to him with a multi-year deal. Griffin could bring that flexibility to the Royals' pitching staff, as Michael Lorenzen did a year ago, seamlessly jumping between the bullpen and rotation. The Giants rode him heavily as a starter over the past three years in the NPB, but his mix and stuff are good enough to handle shorter stints (and may play up more in those spots as well). That said, should injury hit the Royals' rotation, Griffin could handle a starting stint better than other lefties like Lynch or Falter, who have been starters in the past. Griffin may not have the MLB pedigree of other free-agent relievers currently available. That said, Griffin's combination of intriguing pitch arsenal, relative youth, and versatility should make him a target for Picollo and the Royals. He could stabilize the bullpen not just for next year, but beyond as well. View full article
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Foster Griffin Could Be a Sleeper Free Agent Reliever for the Royals
Kevin O'Brien posted an article in Royals
Priority number one for Royals GM JJ Picollo has been acquiring a couple of outfielders to boost the lineup in 2026. He made that clear in many interviews during the Winter Meetings in Orlando this week, pointing out that they would hit the free-agent and trade markets this winter to accomplish those goals. However, that isn't the lone need roster-wise this offseason. According to Anne Rogers of MLB.com, Kansas City is also interested in acquiring a left-handed reliever who can specialize in getting left-handed hitters out. The Royals currently have three lefties projected to be in the bullpen on Opening Day in 2026, according to Roster Resource: Angel Zerpa, Daniel Lynch IV, and Bailey Falter. That said, based on Rogers' report, it seems like the Royals are looking for a boost in left-handed relief, or they could be on the verge of trading one of those three this offseason to acquire a much-needed bat. There aren't a ton of left-handed relief options on the free-agent market, according to Spotrac. The highest-profile lefty relievers in terms of market value are Caleb Thielbar ($5.4 million), Brent Suter ($4.4 million), Danny Coulombe ($4.3 million), and Andrew Chafin ($4.2 million). The youngest in the group is Chafin, who is 35. Hence, many of the lefties they could acquire on the free-agent market will not just be expensive but may not be worth more than a one-year deal, given their ages. One out-of-the-box option could be Foster Griffin, a former Royals draft pick who has spent the last three years in NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) with the Tokyo Giants. After posting a 1.62 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 1.78 FIP in 78 IP with the Giants last season, Griffin announced his intention to return to Major League Baseball in 2026. Given his time in Japan, it isn't easy to gauge his value or the interest of other teams this offseason. However, Griffin could be the lefty that the Royals desire this offseason, and he could also hold some long-term value as well, as he is just 30 years old. Let's dive into Griffin's background, both in the States and Japan, and what he could bring to the Royals' pitching staff next season. Former Royals First Round Pick Struggled With Injury and Generating Strikeouts Griffin has a long history with the Royals, as he was drafted 28th overall in the 2014 MLB Draft. The tall, projectable lefty, drafted out of The First Academy in Florida, had a rocky start in the Royals' system. Initially, Griffin struggled to strike batters out at each level in the Royals' farm system. From 2014 to 2017, across Rookie to Double-A ball, he posted a K rate over 20% just once (26.1% in High-A in 2017). As a result, his ERA numbers fluctuated over those four years. In 2014, he posted a 3.21 ERA in 28 IP in Rookie ball. In 2015, he had a 5.44 ERA in 102.2 IP in Low-A ball. In 2016, he had a 5.43 ERA in 132.2 IP across Low-A and High-A ball. And in 2017, his best season in the Minor Leagues at that point in his career, he put up a 3.35 ERA in 161.1 IP across the High-A and Double-A levels. His strong performance earned him a spot in the Futures game that season in Miami. When the strikeouts have been up, better results have tended to follow for Griffin in the Minor Leagues. In 2020, during the COVID pandemic, Griffin made his MLB debut. However, he suffered an elbow injury in his first career appearance (1.2 IP), and he underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after. The lefty was able to return in 2021, posting a 3.81 ERA, 23.1% K rate, and 1.29 WHIP in 52 IP in the Minor Leagues that season (which spanned from the Low-A to Triple-A levels). Griffin was able to make his way back to the Royals in 2022 after posting a 1.93 ERA and 29.4% K rate in Triple-A Omaha. However, his return to the big leagues was difficult, as he posted a 12.46 ERA, 5.65 FIP, and -8.3 K-BB%. As a result, the Royals designated him for assignment, and he was traded to the Blue Jays for right-handed pitcher Jonatan Bernal. Griffin primarily pitched in Triple-A Buffalo for the Blue Jays organization, posting a 2.31 ERA, 24.8% K rate, and 3.21 FIP in 23 IP. Unfortunately, that wasn't enough for him to earn much of a chance in Toronto, as he only made one appearance with the Blue Jays. When looking at his metrics via TJ Stats, Griffin leaned heavily on his cutter at the Major League level with mixed results. Between 6.1 IP with the Royals and Blue Jays, Griffin posted a 97 TJ Stuff+ overall. His cutter rated as his best pitch overall with a 102 TJ Stuff+, 56 grade, and 71.4% zone rate. While he did flood the zone well (54.1% overall zone rate), he struggled to generate chase (15.7%), whiff (25%), and gave up a lot of hard contact (.453 xwOBACON). As a result of these mediocre metrics, the Blue Jays released him at the conclusion of the 2022 season, and he signed with the Yomiuri Giants of the NPB (based in Tokyo). Turning Things Around in Tokyo With the Yomiuri Giants The move to Japan was a revelation for Griffin, who became a bona fide ace in his three seasons with the Giants. In 54 appearances and 315.2 IP with the Giants, he posted a 2.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a 4.55 K/BB ratio. He showcased excellent command with Yomiuri and limited the long ball in his tenure in the NPB. He posted HR/FB rates of 8.6% and 9.3% in 2023 and 2024 before posting a NPB career-low rate of 1.6%. Griffin also did an excellent job of not just limiting home runs but also inducing strong groundball rates with the Giants. That is evidenced by his 53.3%, 47.8%, and 48.9% groundball rates in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively. The strikeouts also improved and remained stable in his three-year tenure in Japan. From 2023 to 2025, he posted strikeout rates of 23.3%, 26.9%, and 25.1%, respectively. Considering the troubles some USA-born pitchers have had in their transition to the NPB (cough...Trevor Bauer...cough), Griffin's excellent performance in his three seasons with the Giants should be lauded. Griffin looked easy and dominant at times on the mound, as illustrated in this nine-strikeout performance he had last season against the Seibu Lions. In three seasons with the Yomiuri Giants, Griffin looked every bit like the ace the Royals were hoping he would develop into when they drafted him in the first round in the 2014 MLB Draft. What Could He Bring to the Pitching Staff in Kansas City? Obviously, the results were much better for Griffin in Tokyo than in the Minor Leagues here in the States. However, what was the difference for Griffin over the past three seasons? A lot could be credited to his change in pitch mix. That included the addition of a splitter and slider to his arsenal, as well as heavier usage of the four-seamer and less usage of the cutter. Below is a look at his pitch arsenal last year with the Giants, along with metrics for each pitch, including usage, velocity, strike rate, whiff rate, and batting average against. As Royals fans can see above, Griffin's most-thrown pitches were his four-seamer (39.2% usage), slider (18.2%), cutter (16.2%), and changeup (10.6%). He threw the knuckle curve (5.8%), splitter (5.7%), and two-seamer (4.3%) more sparingly. However, his seven-pitch mix last year was much more robust than his four-pitch repertoire back in 2022. His changeup, splitter, and slider were his best offerings in terms of whiff rate, as they generated rates of 50%, 42.9%, and 37.8%, respectively. While the four-seamer didn't create a ton of whiff (13.8%), he threw strikes with it (48.1% strike rate) and limited productive contact (.232 batting average against). Even though Griffin averaged only 90.2 MPH on the four-seamer, he was able to attack hitters with the offering on the edges, especially left-handed ones, as illustrated in the clip below. The four-seamer was not a great swing-and-miss offering. Still, it set up his other offerings well, especially his changeup and slider, his primary offspeed and breaking offerings, respectively. His changeup was his best swing-and-miss pitch, as it sported a 50% whiff rate. The pitch had similar movement to his four-seamer but considerable vertical drop and a sizable velocity difference (8.6 MPH, specifically). Those factors helped produce nasty whiffs like this one below. When it came to his slider, the breaking offering averaged 80.3 MPH, an even greater velocity drop from the four-seamer (9.9 MPH difference). That helped him induce a whiff rate of 37.8% on the pitch. Griffin's slider was not a loopy one but a late-breaking one, which contributed heavily to his success with it during his tenure with the Giants. The pitch was a nasty offering, especially for left-handed hitters, as seen in the clip below against the Lions. Griffin presents a unique weapon for Kansas City, should JJ Picollo opt to sign him this offseason. As seen in the clips below and in his overall numbers, the 30-year-old lefty can be an effective middle-innings reliever who can shut down left-handed batters in key spots, at the very least. His seven-pitch arsenal is diverse enough to be effective over 1-3 innings stretches, which is what the Royals need over the course of a full 162-game season. Furthermore, there could be some spot starter upside with Griffin as well, should they decide to commit to him with a multi-year deal. Griffin could bring that flexibility to the Royals' pitching staff, as Michael Lorenzen did a year ago, seamlessly jumping between the bullpen and rotation. The Giants rode him heavily as a starter over the past three years in the NPB, but his mix and stuff are good enough to handle shorter stints (and may play up more in those spots as well). That said, should injury hit the Royals' rotation, Griffin could handle a starting stint better than other lefties like Lynch or Falter, who have been starters in the past. Griffin may not have the MLB pedigree of other free-agent relievers currently available. That said, Griffin's combination of intriguing pitch arsenal, relative youth, and versatility should make him a target for Picollo and the Royals. He could stabilize the bullpen not just for next year, but beyond as well. -
The Winter Meetings ended on Wednesday, but the hot stove discussion didn't conclude by any means. On Wednesday evening, it was reported that Mike Yastrzemski, who came over to Kansas City at the Trade Deadline last year, agreed to a multi-year deal with the Atlanta Braves. Yastrzemski was a massive boost to a Royals lineup that was stagnant for most of the season. In 50 games and 186 plate appearances, the 35-year-old outfielder slashed .237/.339/.500 with a 127 wRC+, 1.14 BB/K ratio, and 1.3 fWAR. His fWAR was 0.3 higher than his fWAR in 97 games with the Giants earlier in the season. The outfielder also showcased excellent plate discipline and strong launch ability with the Royals, as illustrated in his Statcast percentiles via TJ Stats. For the season, the Royals' offense ranked 22nd in baseball with a 93 wRC+, according to Fangraphs. However, from August until the end of the season, the Royals ranked 11th in wRC+ with a 107 mark. Yastrzemski's presence in the lineup had a significant effect on that turnaround. According to Sam Forsberg of Discuss Baseball, the Royals and Braves were the two primary teams in the mix for Yastrzemski this offseason. While nothing official was confirmed, the Royals likely offered Yastrzemski a deal. MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers mentioned at the conclusion of the Winter Meetings that the Royals had made offers to free agents, but were waiting for their decisions. Losing out on Yastrzemski is tough, especially considering his impact after the Trade Deadline. That said, at 35, it may be challenging for Yastrzemski to live up to the contract he just signed with Atlanta. If the Braves exercise his option, he'll be nearly 40 by the end of the deal. He also has struggled in his career against lefties, with a career 79 wRC+ against southpaws, according to Fangraphs. Royals GM JJ Picollo will continue to scour the free-agent and trade markets for outfield help. According to multiple reports, acquiring a couple of outfielders this offseason is the top priority for Kansas City. Photo Credit: © Peter Aiken-Imagn Images View full rumor
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The Winter Meetings ended on Wednesday, but the hot stove discussion didn't conclude by any means. On Wednesday evening, it was reported that Mike Yastrzemski, who came over to Kansas City at the Trade Deadline last year, agreed to a multi-year deal with the Atlanta Braves. Yastrzemski was a massive boost to a Royals lineup that was stagnant for most of the season. In 50 games and 186 plate appearances, the 35-year-old outfielder slashed .237/.339/.500 with a 127 wRC+, 1.14 BB/K ratio, and 1.3 fWAR. His fWAR was 0.3 higher than his fWAR in 97 games with the Giants earlier in the season. The outfielder also showcased excellent plate discipline and strong launch ability with the Royals, as illustrated in his Statcast percentiles via TJ Stats. For the season, the Royals' offense ranked 22nd in baseball with a 93 wRC+, according to Fangraphs. However, from August until the end of the season, the Royals ranked 11th in wRC+ with a 107 mark. Yastrzemski's presence in the lineup had a significant effect on that turnaround. According to Sam Forsberg of Discuss Baseball, the Royals and Braves were the two primary teams in the mix for Yastrzemski this offseason. While nothing official was confirmed, the Royals likely offered Yastrzemski a deal. MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers mentioned at the conclusion of the Winter Meetings that the Royals had made offers to free agents, but were waiting for their decisions. Losing out on Yastrzemski is tough, especially considering his impact after the Trade Deadline. That said, at 35, it may be challenging for Yastrzemski to live up to the contract he just signed with Atlanta. If the Braves exercise his option, he'll be nearly 40 by the end of the deal. He also has struggled in his career against lefties, with a career 79 wRC+ against southpaws, according to Fangraphs. Royals GM JJ Picollo will continue to scour the free-agent and trade markets for outfield help. According to multiple reports, acquiring a couple of outfielders this offseason is the top priority for Kansas City. Photo Credit: © Peter Aiken-Imagn Images
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Yeah, I thought the Avila quote was the most interesting of the bunch. He looked really good as a reliever and I figured he would stay in the role considering how packed the rotation was. When he said that they were looking to have him start the year as a starter, it did make me think that they would be looking to trade another starter as well.
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Image courtesy of John Bonnes/DiamondCentric The Winter Meetings are in full swing, and that has included managers holding press conferences this week. These press conferences allow managers to reflect on the past season, while also looking forward to the 2026 campaign, with pitchers and catchers reporting in a few months. John Bonnes of Diamondcentric was able to attend the press conference of Royals manager Matt Quatraro on Monday. In Quatraro's press conference, the fourth-year Kansas City skipper touched on key players' performances from last season and elaborated on their outlooks for the upcoming season. While the Royals are still constructing their roster this offseason, Quatraro discussed four players who are likely to be key members of a 2026 Kansas City squad looking to return to the postseason. Thus, let's look at those four players, what Quatraro said about them, and what it could mean as the Royals iron out their roster this winter in preparation for Spring Training. Carter Jensen Will Be Key Part of 2026 Team Quatraro gushed about Jensen and his performance in September last season. In 69 plate appearances, Jensen hit .300 with a .941 OPS and collected three home runs, scored 12 runs, and had 13 RBI. The rookie catcher and local Kansas City-grown product didn't get a whole lot of time behind the plate in his MLB debut, as Quatraro opted to use Salvador Perez and Luke Maile as the Royals' primary catchers down the stretch (which Quatraro admitted in his press conference). However, the Royals manager pointed out that Jensen adapted quickly at the Major League level, especially defensively. Thus, it sounds like the Park Hill High School product will be a crucial part of this Royals roster next spring, as illustrated in the quote below. With Maile becoming a free agent and Luca Tresh not being added to the 40-man roster (he is eligible for Wednesday's Rule 5 Draft), it seems like Jensen is slotted to be the Royals' primary backup catcher for 2026. It will be interesting to see if Quatraro utilizes him similarly to Freddy Fermin, whose strong play the past couple of seasons allowed Perez to get more time at first base and DH, which saved his legs and energy, and preserved his power at the plate. Royals Take Blame for Jonathan India and His 2025 Struggles It seems like the Royals believe that India can bounce back in 2026 after a rough debut season in Kansas City. In 567 plate appearances with the Royals last year, India hit .233 with a .669 OPS. He hit just nine home runs and scored 63 runs, the latter his lowest mark in that category since 2022, his second MLB season. Despite the heavy regression, the Royals opted to bring India back for 2026, agreeing to an $8 million deal this offseason. In Quatraro's press conference, the Royals manager mentioned that moving him around between third base, left field, and second base contributed heavily to his offensive struggles a season ago. If India is not traded away this offseason (I mentioned it as a possibility in my Luis Robert Jr. trade piece), Quatraro will likely keep him solely at second and lower in the batting order to ease the pressure and help him get off to a better start at the plate in 2026. A strong start offensively could help him recapture the productive player that he was in Cincinnati. Jac Caglianone Is Seen As Another Bounce-Back Candidate "Cags-Mania" was all the rage when Caglianone was called up on June 2nd. Unfortunately, the 2024 first-round pick and former Royals top prospect struggled in his Royals rookie debut last season. In 232 plate appearances, Caglianone slashed .157/.237/.295 with a .532 OPS. He hit seven home runs and posted a 12% barrel rate, but he struggled immensely with pitch recognition. That was evidenced by his 38.5% chase rate, 26.8% whiff rate, and 22.4% strikeout rate. He also had lackluster Statcast batted-ball metrics, especially when it came to launching the ball. Despite the rookie's struggles, Quatraro was optimistic about the growth he made at the plate after returning from his Triple-A rehab assignment last season and his outlook for the upcoming season. He also mentioned that a slow start to his MLB career didn't help things, either. Considering he's only 22 years old, Caglianone will likely get more of a leash to prove himself in 2026 than India, who will be a free agent after next season. Nonetheless, much like the Royals' second baseman, it seems Quatraro is planning for Caglianone to be part of the outfield picture in 2026, even if Kansas City acquires a couple of outfielders this offseason (which is their offseason priority, according to reports). Luinder Avila May Be Part of Rotation Mix in 2026 Avila ranked No. 13 in our latest prospect rankings, and he is coming off a solid MLB debut in 2025. In 13 outings and 14 IP, the 24-year-old righty posted a 1.29 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 2.05 xERA. He showed excellent command, with a 28.7% K rate, a 10.7% walk rate, and 17.9% K-BB%. He only had a 25.2% CSW (called-strike plus whiff), but he limited productive contact, as illustrated by a 29.2% hard-hit rate allowed and 50% groundball rate. The Venezuelan pitcher was primarily utilized out of the bullpen in Kansas City, but he made 12 starts in Omaha, albeit to mixed results. With the Storm Chasers, he posted a 5.01 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 59.2 IP in Triple-A. However, his FIP looked a lot better at 4.09. Though Avila looked stellar in the Royals bullpen in 2025, it seems like Quatraro and the Royals brass aren't shutting the door on Avila starting next season, even at the Major League level, as demonstrated in Quatraro's quote below. The Royals have been floating a lot of starting pitchers in trade talks, with Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek, and Noah Cameron mentioned today as possible candidates, according to MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers. Avila may be on the outside looking in when it comes to making the Royals' Opening Day rotation. However, if Royals starters are traded away or perhaps get hurt in Spring Training, it wouldn't be surprising to see Avila slide into the No. 4 or No. 5 spot in the Kansas City rotation to begin the season. The ability to seamlessly flip-flop between the rotation and the bullpen could help him make the Opening Day roster. View full article
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