Will Red Sox Budge in a Possible Trade for Duran?

It was a big week for the Royals, with transactions and upgrades to their outfield. Not only did they sign former Guardians outfielder Lane Thomas to a one-year, $5.2 million deal, but they also acquired Brewers outfielder Isaac Collins (as well as reliever Nick Mears) in a trade for lefty reliever Angel Zerpa.

Adding Thomas and Collins gives the Royals much-needed depth at a position they struggled with in 2025. According to Fangraphs, Kansas City's outfielders ranked last in fWAR (-1.4) and wRC+ (70). At the very least, Thomas and Collins should help boost the Royals' outfield on both the offensive and defensive ends next season, especially if they're completely healthy.

That said, it doesn't seem like the Royals are completely done adding to the outfield this offseason.

According to Ken Rosenthal, Kansas City remains interested in acquiring Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran. However, the Royals are not willing to trade away two-time Opening Day starter Cole Ragans to make that trade a reality. 

There's still plenty of time in the winter for a deal between the Red Sox and Royals to happen. However, why are the Royals so eager to acquire Duran, why are they not willing to include Ragans, and will a deal happen before pitchers and catchers report in late February? 

Let's break down those questions individually to determine whether a Duran-to-Kansas City deal will be realistic this offseason.

Duran Gives the Royals the Middle-of-the-Order Bat They Need

The Royals' lineup got better with the Thomas and Collins acquisitions, but it's likely that both those bats will be better utilized at the bottom of the batting order instead of the top or middle.

According to Roster Resource's projected 2026 Royals depth chart, Collins is projected to play left field and bat eighth. As for Thomas, he's expected to be a platoon bench player, likely with Kyle Isbel or Jac Caglianone. Regardless of who he plays for, it is likely that Thomas will bat in the 8th or 9th hole in the batting order. 

That still leaves a bit of a gap in the middle of the lineup with Caglianone, Jonathan India, and Michael Massey projected to hit 5th, 6th, and 7th, respectively. All three of those hitters posted wRC+ marks under 90, and Massey and Caglianone sported marks under 60. 

Duran, on the other hand, posted a 111 wRC+ in 696 plate appearances last year. Furthermore, Depth Charts projects that Duran will post a 107 wRC+ and 2.6 fWAR in 2026. His wRC+ projection is better than India's (102), Massey's (89), Thomas's (92), and Collins's (104). Conversely, his wRC+ is projected to lag behind fellow Red Sox outfielders like Roman Anthony (122), Wilyer Abreu (114), and Masataka Yoshida (110). Furthermore, Romy Gonzalez (104) and Kristian Campbell (100) aren't far behind, and they can play outfield if needed.

Thus, the Royals may need Duran more than the Red Sox need their 29-year-old former All-Star. 

Duran does have the combination of defensive versatility and skills to succeed as an everyday left fielder for the Royals in 2026 and beyond (he won't be a free agent until 2029). When it comes to his Stacast profile, the Boston outfielder can be a bit free-swinging. Still, the exit velocity metrics illustrate that Duran has the hitting ability to succeed in Kauffman Stadium.

While Isbel has been great defensively, he only posted a 79 wRC+ and is only projected to put up an 87 wRC+, according to Depth Charts' projections. That puts him behind not only Duran but also Collins, Thomas, and Massey. Hence, if Collins could adjust to Kauffman's spacious dimensions, he could steal some time away from Isbel or push Caglianone into more designated hitter duty. That could allow Duran to play left field every day if the Royals can find a way to bring him to Kansas City. 

Acquiring Duran not only makes the Royals a candidate to return to the postseason, but also a team that could win the Central and compete for an AL Pennant in 2026, especially if he's batting in the five-hole (which moves Caglianone down in the order and takes some pressure off him at the plate).

Why the Royals Won't Part With Ragans

Early on in the offseason, there were rumors that the Royals were willing to trade away Ragans to acquire a player of Duran's caliber. However, at the Winter Meetings, Picollo seemed committed to keeping their ace in Kansas City for at least next season.

It certainly wasn't Ragans' best season last year, as a shoulder injury limited him to just 61.2 IP. Furthermore, his ERA was mediocre for his standards at 4.67. That said, he still posted a 14.30 K/9, the best mark of Royals starters last year, and a 2.1 fWAR, the third-best mark of Royals pitchers (only Michael Wacha and Kris Bubic posted better marks). 

In addition, Ragans' TJ Stuff+, as well as chase and whiff metrics, were elite, despite the small sample. That is illustrated in his TJ Stats summary below.

All of Ragans' metrics rated as slightly above or clearly above-average, including TJ Stuff+ (104), zone% (51.7%), chase% (29.8%), whiff% (34.6%), and xwOBACON (.362). Thus, it's not a surprise that Ragans' 2.50 FIP was 2.27 points lower than his ERA. If Ragans pitched more innings, his ERA would likely've been closer to the 3.14 mark he posted in 2024 or the 3.47 mark in 2023. 

The 28-year-old is also projected favorably in early projection models so far. Depth Charts projects Ragans to post a 3.23 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 29.7% K%, and 4.3 fWAR in 172 IP next season. That's the second-best projection of any Royals player next year (only Bobby Witt Jr. is higher at 6.9), and it's 1.7 fWAR better than Duran. 

Thus, a straight-up trade for Duran would be an overpay by Kansas City, even with Ragans' injury history and their dire need for a middle-of-the-order bat that can preferably play in the outfield. 

Can the Royals and Red Sox Get a Deal Done (With Bubic as the Centerpiece)?

Trading Duran makes sense for the Red Sox, especially considering the depth they have in the outfield and the lack of solid starting pitching, even after the acquisition of Sonny Gray from St. Louis. While Gray and Garrett Crochet are a solid one-two punch, Bryan Bello is a bit of a wild card (4.19 FIP and 1.9 fWAR in 2025), and Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval, projected to be the fourth and fifth pitchers in the rotation, didn't throw a pitch last year due to injury. 

If the Red Sox don't want to throw any prospects or additional players in a Duran deal, they could settle on Kris Bubic, who's entering his last year of team control.

The Royals' lefty made his first All-Star team and posted a 2.55 ERA and 3.3 fWAR in 116.1 IP last season. Unfortunately, he missed most of the second half due to a shoulder injury that was similar to Ragans'. Thus, after missing nearly all of 2023 due to Tommy John and the second half of last year, it makes sense why teams, including the Red Sox, may be squeamish on acquiring Bubic.

Still, projections are pretty optimistic about Bubic for 2026.

Depth Charts projects Bubic to post a 3.80 ERA, 3.83 FIP, and 2.4 fWAR in 155 IP. That's only a 0.2 fWAR difference from Duran, and his fWAR projection would make him Boston's third-best starter in 2026. I also think Depth Charts' projections are underselling his strikeout ability next season. They are projecting a 22.5% K% next year, and I think he's capable of surpassing that based on what he showed in TJ Stuff+ and other metrics last year, via TJ Stats.

When looking at his TJ Stats summary, his profile compares quite similarly to Ragans, with all of his categories rating either slightly above or better. That includes TJ Stuff+ (103), zone% (51.9%), chase% (32.4%), whiff% (28.8%), and xwOBACON (.344). When comparing Ragans' and Bubic's TJ Stats Summaries side by side, Ragans has the better velocity. However, Bubic was better at inducing less productive contact (xwOBACON) and generating better extension on his pitches.

The Red Sox may reconsider their impression of Bubic. The Royals may be willing to trade not only Bubic to Boston but also include another relief pitcher or a 10-15th-ranked prospect in the deal for Duran alone. However, if the Red Sox are adamant about getting Ragans, Boston will likely have to throw something significant with Duran, whether it's on the player or prospect end (and even then, that may not be enough for Kansas City).

It will be interesting to see if Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow is willing to settle for Bubic in a possible trade for Duran. Such a concession may be a win-win for both teams, with the Red Sox obviously having the payroll to afford a Bubic extension if he can get back to his All-Star self in 2026. 

Unfortunately, it feels likely that a lot of time has to pass, as well as other pitching options have to come off the market, whether through free agency or trade, for Breslow and the Red Sox to concede to Picollo and Kansas City and choose Bubic over Ragans as the return in a Duran trade.