Why The Royals Shouldn't Trade For Dodgers Slugger Teoscar Hernandez

On December 4, Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney reported in The Athletic that the Dodgers are listening to trade proposals for Teoscar Hernandez. Should the Royals consider a move for Hernandez? It isn’t a secret that the Royals need help in the outfield, ranking last in outfield fWAR, according to FanGraphs. Royals’ GM J.J. Picollo has also been open about being active in the trade market for outfield upgrades. Would Hernandez be the right player to pursue?

The Argument for Hernandez
Hernandez would represent an immediate upgrade to the Royals’ current outfield options. Even in a down year compared to his Silver Slugger-worthy performances of the past, Hernandez still had a decent season at the plate in 2024. Last year, he posted a 102 wRC+. By comparison, the Royals outfielders combined for a 70 wRC+. 

Hernandez offers consistent power. He has belted at least 25 home runs in his last five seasons and is consistently above average in Statcast metrics like barrel %, exit velocity, and hard hit %. His ability to generate hard contact stands in stark contrast to the current crop of Royals outfielders.

In short, Hernandez’s underlying offensive data is strong enough to suggest that he would elevate the Royals’ outfield offensive production. However, the bar for improvement is quite low.

The Argument Against Hernandez
Hernandez will be entering his age-33 season next year, and after signing for the Dodgers before the 2024 season, he is still under contract for another two guaranteed years with a team option in 2028 and a vesting option in 2029. In that time, Hernandez is guaranteed $48.3 million. That would make his contract effectively around $24 million per year, assuming the Royals do not enact the team option. 

For a small-market team like the Royals, that contract is prohibitive and difficult to justify, especially for a player past or exiting his prime.

Even if there is a trade that includes the Dodgers paying a portion of Hernandez’s salary, there are many indicators that he is not the best fit for the Royals.

Hernandez is well below average in strikeout rate, walk rate, swing and misses, chase rate, and expected on-base percentage. 
Even the metrics he grades better on have shown major regression in his last season. Barrel rate, exit velocity, slugging percentage, and isolated power all dropped to below the 80th percentile after mainly being above the 90th percentile during his career.

Other metrics, such as speed, arm strength, and bat speed, are on the decline and show clear signs of aging for Hernandez. There has also been some regression to the mean in his wRC+ and fWAR since 2020, and his 2024 season looks more like an outlier than the norm. This same trend is mirrored in his expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA).

Another issue is Hernandez’s defense. According to Statcast, since 2018, he has only registered a positive run value in two years, with 2024 and 2025 being his worst seasons. His outs above have also never been positive during his career. According to FanGraphs, Kauffman Stadium has the largest outfield by area, which is a lot of ground to cover for someone whose sprint speed is also deteriorating. Considering all of his defensive struggles and aging, it is likely that Hernandez is destined to become a designated hitter sooner rather than later. At a salary of effectively $24 million per season, that is a lot of salary to allocate to a likely designated hitter who is also regressing to being a league-average hitter.

In Parting
It would be very surprising if the Royals seriously entertained a trade involving Teoscar Hernandez. For this to make sense for Kansas City, there would have to be the perfect mix of prospects, and the Dodgers would have to retain a significant portion of his salary. Even in that scenario, the Royals would need to be convinced that his offensive regression will not continue and that he would remain somewhat competent defensively. Both of these conditions seem unlikely.