Why the Royals and Padres Could Be Trade Partners (Again)

The Kansas City Royals and San Diego Padres have a strong history of exchanging players, especially over the past few years. 

In 2020, the Royals received outfielder Edward Olivares and pitcher Ronald Bolanos from the Padres for reliever Trevor Rosenthal, and also acquired outfielder Franchy Cordero in exchange for Tim Hill. In 2023, Kansas City traded away Scott Barlow for pitching prospects Henry Williams and Jesus Rios. Last season, the Padres acquired Freddy Fermin in exchange for Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek. 

Safe to say, Royals GM JJ Picollo and Padres GM AJ Preller are quite familiar with one another's phone numbers. 

Kansas City and San Diego, both of which entered Major League Baseball at the same time in 1969 (along with the Seattle Pilots and Montreal Expos, now the Brewers and Nationals, respectively), have roster needs this offseason. The Royals need to improve their lineup, outfield, and bullpen. The Padres need another starter to round out the rotation. Both teams seem willing to trade what they have to accomplish those goals, with Randy Holt writing about it from the Padres' perspective at Padres Mission. 

The Padres have not been afraid to spend money under Preller. However, their high payroll, rebuilding farm system, and commitment to many long-term deals on the current roster may deter them from seriously pursuing a high-end starter in free agency or trade this offseason, as Holt points out. 

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But at this stage of the offseason, it remains to be seen from where further reinforcements could emerge. Widely-known organizational context tells you that the Padres are running thin on money to spend. This leaves the likes of Zac Gallen, Framber Valdez, and Ranger Suárez out of the team's reach. They also lack the resources in the minor leagues to make a trade for a notable arm, especially the Tarik Skubal's or Hunter Greene's or Freddy Peralta's of the world. So, where does Preller go from here?

Right now, Michael King and Nick Pivetta are the only projected arms in the rotation San Diego can trust. Joe Musgrove has been dependable in the past, but he missed all of 2025 due to Tommy John surgery. He will likely go through some growing pains after not pitching since 2024. 

The last two projected starters in the rotation, Randy Vasquez and JP Sears, each threw over 130 innings last season. That said, they combined for a 1.3 fWAR, and they posted FIPs of 4.85 and 5.21, respectively. Thus, it's questionable that they will be able to last a whole season in the Padres' rotation, especially if San Diego wants to compete in a tough NL West division with the Dodgers, Giants, and Diamondbacks. 

The Royals, on the other hand, are flush with starting pitching and have been willing to part with this surplus to address their outfield and reliever needs this offseason. Therefore, let's take a look at a couple of assets Kansas City could part with, what it could receive from San Diego, and some deals that could make sense for both sides. 

Bubic and Falter Could Make Sense for San Diego

Kris Bubic has been one of the Royals' hottest names when it comes to trade rumors. Unfortunately, it seems like those rumors may have bled into contract negotiations this offseason. In his final season of arbitration, the Royals and Bubic failed to come to an agreement at last week's deadline, as they remain $1 million apart in their filings.

Unless that gap is filled soon (i.e., concessions are made), it's likely that Bubic and the Royals will head to a hearing. With Bubic a tradeable asset and a free agent next offseason, he may not be motivated to reach an agreement and could likely take his chances in a hearing, even if it results in some lost goodwill between the two sides. Thus, Kansas City may be inclined to trade the former Stanford product sooner rather than later, especially if negotiations continue to move slowly.

The Padres may be interested in Bubic, who was an All-Star last year and posted 3.3 fWAR and a 2.55 ERA over 116.1 IP. For context, his ERA was better than King's (3.44) and Pivetta's (2.87), and while Pivetta accumulated a 3.7 fWAR, he also pitched 65.1 more innings than Bubic. Over the same inning sample, Bubic likely would have surpassed Pivetta and finished 2025 as the better pitcher fWAR-wise. 

Even though his second half was cut short due to injury, Bubic posted the kind of stuff and strike data that would make him a welcome asset in the Padres' rotation for the upcoming season. That is illustrated in his 2025 TJ Stats summary below.

Bubic posted a 103 overall TJ Stuff+, with four of his pitches sporting TJ Stuff+ marks over 100. He also had a zone rate of 51.9%, a chase rate of 32.4%, a whiff rate of 28.8%, and a xwOBACON of .344. All those marks are rated as above average for an MLB starting pitcher. 

There's no question that Bubic solves an immediate need for San Diego in 2026. However, would the Padres be okay with him coming to Kansas City on a one-year deal? The Padres would obviously try to negotiate an extension with him at some point, but there are no guarantees in that department, especially with how valued starting pitchers are now across the league. 

If the Padres are looking for a cheaper option with more long-term control, they could opt for Bailey Falter, who agreed to a $3.6 million deal this offseason to avoid arbitration.

Falter obviously looks a lot worse than Bubic does in the metrics. In 125.1 IP with the Pirates and Royals last year, he posted a 4.45 ERA, 4.94 FIP, and 0.5 fWAR. He was particularly bad with the Royals after coming over at the Trade Deadline. In 12 IP, he allowed an 11.25 ERA and 5.22 FIP. Falter was demoted to the bullpen, eventually landed on the IL, and was sparingly used down the stretch. 

The 28-year-old lefty doesn't have as great stuff as Bubic. That said, it's serviceable enough, and he could possess more upside than Sears, the only other lefty option in the Padres' rotation. Here's a look at what Falter did last year via TJ Stats.

Falter's four-seamer (101 TJ Stuff+) and sinker (99 TJ Stuff+) were intriguing pitches, with both sporting above-average grades (57). Falter also does a good job of flooding the strike zone (53.7% zone rate) and generating good extension on his pitches (7.2). With the right adjustments, he could be a solid option for the end of the Padres rotation. Furthermore, he would be under team control not just for 2026, but also for 2027 and 2028. 

Could Morejon and/or Laureano Come to Kansas City?

The Padres seem most willing to deal a reliever from their deep bullpen, which lost Robert Suarez in free agency to the Atlanta Braves. The most likely candidate to be traded away could be lefty setup man Adrian Morejon, who had a career season in 2025.

In 75 appearances and 73.2 IP, the Padres' primary lefty posted a 2.08 ERA, 2.28 FIP, and 2.2 fWAR. He also collected 13 wins and three saves. Morejon showcased an excellent command last year, posting an 18.5% K-BB%, a 0.1% improvement from 2024. However, his K rate was 24.5%, a 1.6% regression from 2024, and his 10.4% SwStr% was 1.8% lower than his mark from 2024, as well. 

The Cuban-born lefty was above-average in nearly every category in his TJ Stats summary last year, except whiff rate, where he rated slightly below-average.

Morejon would compete for innings in the ninth on most teams. However, with Mason Miller and Jeremiah Estrada in the bullpen, both better strikeout pitchers, he is a third option at best. That could make him an expendable asset in San Diego, especially since he will be a free agent after this season. 

While the Padres prefer to trade relievers to upgrade their rotation, they may be open to trading Ramon Laureano, especially if it means they can get the starter they want. Like Morejon, Laureano will be a free agent after this season, and it seems unlikely that he will be part of the Padres' long-term plans.

The 31-year-old outfielder was acquired from the Orioles last season, and in 488 plate appearances with Baltimore and San Diego, he hit 24 home runs, hit .281, posted a .364 wOBA, 138 wRC+, and accumulated a 3.0 fWAR. While he has a bit of a free-swinging approach, the exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit skills displayed by Laureano last season were solid, as seen below in his TJ Stats Statcast summary profile. 

Laureano could be a regular corner outfielder who could rotate between left field and right field seamlessly, which would allow Isaac Collins to be more flexible (possibly getting innings in center field), and/or Jac Caglianone to see more time at designated hitter. Laureano also has familiarity with the AL Central, as he played 72 games for the Guardians between 2023 and 2024. Thus, his experience in the division and his batted-ball profile should help him transition to Kauffman Stadium. 

What a Royals-Padres Deal Could Look Like

Using Baseball Trade Values' Trade Simulator, I created a deal involving the two players I mentioned from each team. However, to make the trade work, I had to add another piece from each team.

I decided to include second baseman Will Wagner from the Padres and Michael Massey from the Royals. Both are 27 years old, known more for defense than their bats, and would serve as utility players for their respective teams. I thought about including Jonathan India instead of Massey, but the values didn't work on BTV, and I had a feeling that the Padres wouldn't be willing to absorb his $8 million (Massey's $1.57 million deal is more tolerable). 

With the inclusion of Wagner and Massey, the deal between the Padres and Royals is, even value-wise, a win-win for both sides. 

The Royals get a much-needed outfielder with pop, a lefty reliever who can lock things down in the late innings with Carlos Estevez, Lucas Erceg, and Matt Strahm, and a utility infielder who can fill in at second base when India needs a day off. As for the Padres, they get their much-needed starter with No. 2 upside, a long-term No. 4-5 starter in Falter, and a second base/left field option who could hit 10-15 HRs a year and provide solid defense at the keystone, if healthy.

The last positive aspect of this deal is that it would cover all the bases for both teams this offseason in terms of need. They would only need to fill out the roster with Minor League deals before Spring Training. They wouldn't need to spend major money in free agency, whatsoever. 

The Padres and Royals have a history of helping one another improve through trades. 

Let's hope that they have another one up their sleeves in the coming weeks, with this possible trade proposal as a blueprint.