Royals Fall League Recap: Rose AFL Hitter of the Week and Arronde Heating Up

[Kevin O'Brien]

 

 The AFL hosted its Fall Stars Weekend on Saturday and Sunday, with the Home Run Derby on Saturday and the Fall Stars Game on Sunday.

Brooks Bryan participated in the Home Run Derby and advanced to the semifinal, but fell short of making the championship. However, he made noise with a 450-foot home run in the first round.

 

In Sunday's game, Zion Rose, Angeibel Gomez, and Justin Lamkin represented the Kansas City Royals. Rose went 0-for-2 with a walk and two strikeouts. One of those strikeouts came against Nationals pitcher Jarlin Susana, who buckled Rose on an 88 MPH sweeper after throwing a 103 MPH fastball on the previous pitch. 

 

As for Gomez, he went 0-for-2 with two strikeouts in his Fall Stars debut. He replaced Rose in this contest. 

On the mound, Lamkin held his own in his inning of work, retiring the side in seven pitches. While he didn't strike anyone out, he flooded the strike zone (71.4% zone rate) and generated a good number of chases (50% chase rate). That said, as is typical for many of his outings this fall, the TJ Stuff+ metrics didn't impress. He posted a 93 overall TJ Stuff+, with all his pitches profiling as subpar. 

Even though he hasn't been a stuff monster this fall, Lamkin is showing the polish and command that made him such an intriguing prospect last year with Quad Cities and Northwest Arkansas before he got injured. If he stays healthy, he could be a candidate for a Major League promotion at some point in 2027, especially if his stuff improves.

So how did Royals prospects fare in the Fall League beyond the Fall Stars festivities? Let's take a look at how the hitters and pitchers fared over the past seven days in this latest edition of Fall League Recap.

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Rose is Named AFL Hitter of the Week

Hitting stats from November 3rd to November 10th

• Rose, OF: 7 AB, 2 R, 2B, 3 RBI, 3 BB, 2 K, 2 SB, .286 AVG, and .929 OPS.
• Bryan, C: 9 AB, R, 2 RBI, BB, K, .333 AVG, and .733 OPS.
• Gomez, OF: 6 AB, 2 BB, K, CS, .167 AVG, and .542 OPS.
• Austin Charles, 3B/SS: 3 K, .167 AVG, and .334 OPS.

Rose went 0-for-1 with a walk and a run in Tuesday's 10-2 win by Surprise. However, before the Fall Stars weekend, the former Louisville product had a monster week with the Saguaros. 

In Week Five, he led the league in slugging percentage, OPS, and RBI. Rose also hit .429 and collected 12 total bases during that stretch.

 

Rose continues to show he may be one of baseball's more underrated prospects right now. While some Royals fans (including myself) were surprised that Kansas City drafted Rose at No. 6, he's done nothing but impress since making his pro debut. He helped Quad Cities win a Midwest League title; he's been one of the best hitting prospects in the AFL, and he's quickly rising in many prospect Top-100 lists. 

Lucas "The Prospect Professor" of Prospects Live recently ranked Rose No. 68  in his Top-100 Prospects who haven't made their MLB debut.

 

I think Rose will debut in Double-A Northwest Arkansas in 2027, but he could make his MLB debut sometime after the All-Star Break. His projection feels very similar to Jac Caglianone in 2025, though I hope he has a smoother transition than Cags, who struggled in 2025 (50 TJ Bat+) before breaking out last year (127 TJ Bat+). 

Bryan, Gomez, and Charles had quieter weeks. Bryan hit for a high average (.333), but he didn't really produce much power (.333 slugging; no extra-base hits). He must've been saving it for the Home Run Derby. 

Gomez struggled, likely due to fatigue. He hit .167 with a .542 OPS in Week 5. However, reports on him were encouraging, especially regarding batted-ball quality. He also walked twice, struck out once, and posted a .375 OBP. So he's at least showing patience at the plate when the batted balls aren't falling for hits. 

It's been a tough fall for Charles, and Week 5 was no different. He only had one hit and posted a .334 OPS in 6 at-bats. He's pulling and launching the ball well this fall, but he's not getting much exit velocity on his batted balls, and he's swinging and missing a lot, as shown in the Statcast Percentile data below. 

 

I still have some hope for Charles' outlook, but based on how this AFL campaign has gone, he'll need more time and seasoning in Double-A in 2027.

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Arronde Thrives in Latest Outing Against Scottsdale

Pitching Stats from November 3rd to November 10th

• Frank Mozzicato, LHP: 1 G, 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 0.00 ERA, and 0.75 WHIP.
• Felix Arronde, RHP: 1 G, 3 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 HB, 0 BB, 5 K, 3.00 ERA, and 0.33 WHIP.
• Josh Hansell, RHP: 2 G, 2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 HB, 2 BB, 3 K, 4.50 ERA, and 1.50 WHIP.
• Lamkin, LHP: 1 G, 1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 9.00 ERA, and 3.00 WHIP.

Arronde pitched on Tuesday and produced his best outing of the fall.

The No. 16 prospect at Royals Keep allowed only one hit and one earned run in three innings of work against Scottsdale. He also didn't walk a batter and struck out five batters. When looking at clips from his performance, he was absolutely dealing, fooling hitters with his four-pitch repertoire. 

 

When looking at the TJ Stuff+ data, Arronde's stuff profiled well overall, as evidenced by his 100 TJ Stuff+. He also produced a 101 TJ Stuff+ on the four-seamer (57 grade) and 103 TJ Stuff+ on the sinker (66 grade). His cutter profiled decently with a 99 TJ Stuff+ and 51 grade. Only the curveball graded below average, with an 87 TJ Stuff+ and a 29 grade.

In terms of results, there was a lot to be happy about with Arronde on Tuesday, as he produced above-average marks in zone rate, chase rate, whiff rate, and xwOBACON.

I'm not sure about Arronde's upside as a starting pitcher, and last year was a struggle for him at Double-A Northwest Arkansas (6.49 ERA, 6.25 FIP, and 7.6% K-BB% in 105.1 IP). However, I think he could thrive in a move to the bullpen, where his four-pitch mix (especially his four-seamer and sinker) can play up more. There's a lot of Luinder Avila in Arronde's profile, and I wonder if the Royals will transition Arronde to the bullpen as a long reliever this spring in Surprise. 

Another pitcher who struggled in Double-A Northwest Arkansas but had a solid recent week was Mozzicato, who struck out three and allowed no runs in 1.1 IP. Mozzicato's stuff profiled EXTREMELY WELL in his November 5th outing, as he produced a 105 overall TJ Stuff+ with all three of his pitches grading at 57 or higher, as shown below. 

Against Scottsdale, the former 1st-round pick also generated a 36.4% whiff rate and 0.000 xwOBACON. The chase rate was subpar (20%), and he did struggle with consistency in the strike zone (40% zone rate), especially with his four-seamer (31.3% zone rate). That said, I'm feeling as optimistic as ever with Mozzicato, as the stuff is there to be a decent middle reliever. The lefty could be a candidate to have a breakout in 2027, much like Beck Way did a season ago.

Lamkin wasn't sharp in his November 4th outing against Glendale, but he made up for it with a strong performance in the Fall Stars game. As for Hansell, he's been one of Surprise's best volume relievers, as he had two outings this past week and has a 2.08 ERA in 8.2 IP this fall with the Saguaros. 

Hansell has struggled with finding the zone at times (13th percentile zone rate), and he has given up a lot of hard contact as well (15th percentile hard-hit rate). That said, the fastball velocity (85th percentile), extension (83rd percentile), and groundball rate (64.7%) have all been excellent. 

It's also interesting to see Hansell's repertoire and how it fares on a stuff end. His four-seamer and curveball have been mediocre, with 93 and 94 TJ Stuff+ marks, respectively. However, his other three pitches have above-average TJ Stuff+ marks. Below is a look at his complete TJ Stuff+ summary, which goes deeper into his pitches. 

The more I look at Hansell's AFL profile, the more encouraged I am about his outlook. The extension has been strong, and the whiff rate has been encouraging. There's a profile that the Royals Pitching Development team can work with. 

Could he refine his pitch mix a bit and maybe develop more shape with his four-seam fastball this offseason and next spring? If so, he could be a bullpen candidate for the Royals in September of 2027 or Opening Day in 2028.  

 

Image courtesy of Steven Branscombe-Imagn Images

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