Does Trent Grisham Solve the Royals' Centerfield Issues?

[Kevin O'Brien]

 

After a 69-93 season, the Kansas City Royals need outside talent to improve the club's outlook in 2027. One area of focus this offseason, President of Baseball Operations JJ Picollo mentioned in his end-of-season presser, is center field.

The Royals didn't get much production from center field last season.

As a collective group, the Royals produced a 0.6 fWAR, which ranked second-to-last in the league (only the St. Louis Cardinals were worse). The Royals' main center fielder last year was Kyle Isbel, who's long been known more for his glove than his bat at the Major League level. However, even for a defensive-oriented player, Isbel's 2026 was forgettable.

A foot injury limited Isbel to just 100 games and 323 plate appearances. That said, his numbers in that small sample weren't good, which may explain why Picollo is looking for a free-agent option in center field in 2027.

The 29-year-old outfielder hit .224 with a .591 OPS last season, a regression from his .255 and .654 marks in 2025. He hit six home runs, stole six bases, posted a 61 wRC+, and posted 0.1 fWAR. Since 2024, Isbel has seen his wRC+ decline from 82 to 79 to 61, and his fWAR go from 1.5 to 1.1 to 0.1. He also showed lackluster batted-ball skills a season ago, especially with regard to exit velocity, barrel rate, and LA Sweet-Spot%

Isbel will be 30 by Opening Day next year, and it's unlikely his injury issues or skills will improve much. Thus, it may be better for the Royals to have him in a reserve role or as a fourth outfielder, though the latter may be bold considering his decline last year. 

One option that could make sense for the Royals is Trent Grisham, who has spent the past two seasons with the New York Yankees. Thomas Nestico of TJ Stats, in his Top-30 Free Agent predictions, projected that Grisham would sign with the Royals this offseason.

 

Like Isbel, Grisham saw some decline from 2025 to 2026.

In 143 games and 581 plate appearances, Grisham hit .235 with an .812 OPS. He also hit 34 home runs, scored 87 runs, drew 82 walks, and posted a 128 wRC+ and 3.1 fWAR. Of qualified center fielders in 2025, Grisham ranked 8th, ahead of Milwaukee's Jackson Chourio and San Francisco's Jung Hoo Lee. 

In 2025, Grisham not only hit the ball hard and pulled it effectively, but he also didn't chase, giving him a solid OBP (.348) even though he didn't hit for a high average.

Unfortunately, injuries and regression hit Grisham hard in 2026. In 484 plate appearances, he hit .211 with a .703 OPS. He hit 18 home runs, scored 67 runs, and drew 61 walks in 121 games. He also posted a 98 wRC+ and 0.7 fWAR. In a way, Grisham was still productive, but last year he had the profile of a rotational outfielder rather than an everyday one, as he did in 2025. 

So, should the Royals invest serious money in Grisham, who is a year older than Isbel and also regressed in 2026? It's a complicated case, so let's break down what Grisham brings to the Royals, his drawbacks, and other internal options who could also man center field in 2027. 

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Grisham Brings Power, Patience, and Productivity to the Outfield

The Royals got tremendous power production from Jac Caglianone, their regular right fielder, in 2026. Cags hit 23 home runs and posted a 129 wRC+ and an .834 OPS in 553 plate appearances. However, only Lane Thomas hit more than six homers of any Royals outfielder a season ago, according to Fangraphs. 

Hence, Grisham definitely gives the Royals a power boost in the outfield, even if his home-run range may be in the 15-20 range, which is more in line with his career norms. 

Looking at Grisham's Statcast percentiles a season ago, there weren't many declines in his categories from 2025, as illustrated in the image below via TJ Stats.

He pulled the ball in the air less, but he still ranked in the 63rd percentile. The barrel and LA Sweet-Spot% still ranked in the 72nd and 74th percentiles, respectively, and his hard-hit rate and average EV ranked in the 81st and 84th percentiles, respectively. He also showed immaculate plate discipline, with a 98th-percentile O-Swing%, 85th-percentile whiff%, and 88th-percentile BB%.

Now, some Royals fans may be wondering: Will Grisham's power transition from Yankee Stadium to Kauffman? The data suggests it should be a seamless transition.

First, Grisham averaged nearly 14 homers per season in his home games at Petco Park in San Diego from 2020 to 2023. Petco ranks 24th in three-year park factors, according to Baseball Savant. Thus, he's not simply a beneficiary of Yankee Stadium's lefty-friendly short porch. 

Additionally, when looking at expected home runs by park, Grisham would've had 18 last year in Kansas City, the same number he had overall. His spray chart from last season also illustrates that most of his home run balls would've gone out at the K. 

The nice thing about Grisham's profile is that he's pull-heavy, which profiles well in Kauffman's modified dimensions. The Royals ranked 12th in Pull%, but just 29th in HR/FB%. Grisham would give the Royals a bat that can pull the ball to right field and consistently lift it. That likely would help boost Kansas City's HR/FB%, which ranked near the bottom of the league a season ago. 

Grisham also helps the Royals strengthen a lineup that prioritizes swing decisions and not chasing.

New Royals offensive coordinator Connor Dawson came over from Milwaukee last year and helped the Royals rank 18th in O-Swing%. From 2023 to 2025, they ranked 23rd. Grisham's O-Swing% of 19.3% last year was 14 percent lower than the Royals' average O-Swing%. He is the kind of hitter that Dawson and assistant hitting coaches Marcus Thames and Hunter Mense are looking for.

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Grisham's Defense Is An Issue

While Grisham provides the profile the Royals want on offense, his defense has been less stellar.

Over the past two years in New York, Grisham has been 12.7 runs below average, according to Fangraphs. According to Savant, he has accumulated an -8 FRV and -14 OAA as a center fielder for the Yankees. DRS hasn't been any better: He's accumulated a -19 DRS from 2025 to 2026. 

It's interesting to see this decline because Grisham actually profiled as a decent defensive outfielder with the Padres. 

He accumulated a +26 FRV and +68 OAA from 2020 to 2023 with San Diego. Unsurprisingly, he captured Gold Gloves in 2020 (+14 OAA) and 2022 (+32 OAA). Therefore, he has had the potential to be a high-quality defensive outfielder, but injuries and perhaps the dimensions of Yankee Stadium have contributed to a massive decline over the past two seasons.

It seems his decline in burst speed has contributed to this defensive regression, as the Yankee Realist discussed in a Twitter post last August.

 

Now, do I think Grisham is the same outfielder that he was in San Diego? Absolutely not. However, as the Yankee Realist points out, the issue seems to be less about routes or reads and more about a decline in his athleticism. Could Grisham be better with stronger defensive outfielders around him? And could he be better in a more spacious yard and with better outfield coaching (i.e., could Rusty Kuntz help him)?

Those are tough questions to answer, especially since Isbel carried the outfield defense in the past, and Cags (-10 OAA) and Isaac Collins (-2 OAA) didn't profile all that well defensively in 2026 either. 

Adding Grisham to that pair could produce a historically bad outfield defense.

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Could Grisham move to left, and could they go internal in Center Field?

To be honest, moving Grisham to left field may be the move, especially considering his bat would be an upgrade over Collins (83 wRC+), and his defense may be less of a liability in the corner. With 20+ HR potential, his bat profiles well in left field and would give them their best-hitting left fielder since Alex Gordon. 

That would be worth a deal in the $13-17 million AAV range for 2-3 years, which is what many experts are projecting. 

So what would that mean in center field?

The Royals could use John Rave as their regular center fielder against righties. Rave posted a 101 wRC+ and 1.0 fWAR in 161 plate appearances last year. While his exit-velocity metrics aren't consistent and he should strike out less, he doesn't chase, and he pulls the ball into the air effectively.

Compared to Isbel and Grisham, Rave profiled favorably, with a higher fWAR than both a season ago despite a fraction of the plate appearances. 

Against lefties, the Royals could platoon Rave with Tyler Tolbert, who has multi-positional versatility. That said, while Tolbert should theoretically hit well against lefties, he had reverse splits a season ago, based on TJ Stats percentiles. 

Kansas City could opt for a right-handed hitter who could platoon against lefties, much like Thomas a year ago (or they could just bring back Lane since he's a free agent). Nonetheless, while Rave could be a nice option, he's not one the Royals could play every day without reservations.

If the Royals want to go really bold, they could opt for Carson Roccaforte as their Opening Day center fielder. Granted, it's a risk, especially since he had a 31.1% K% in Triple-A Omaha a season ago. That said, he had a .361 wOBA and a 29.4% pull rate with the Storm Chasers. If he can carry that performance into Spring Training, he could make a case that he's Kansas City's best option at center field.

Grisham would fit the Royals' outfield needs this offseason. However, it's not as clear a solution as it seems at first, especially given Grisham's defensive limitations in the outfield. 

Royals fans shouldn't be disappointed if Picollo signs Grisham to a 2-3 year deal. However, Grisham should be part of the solution in the outfield, not THE solution, if the Royals want to return to the postseason in 2027. 

 

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[Shagging Flies]

Trent Grisham is a rock-hard pass. He’s a 30yr old with three consecutive below Mendoza years, a bounce year in 2025 to a whopping .235 BA, and then a decline to near Mendoza at .211. Signing him is hoping for him to be who he’s been once in the last five seasons.
Maybe you are one of the those falsely enlightened people who don’t care about batting average. If so, the rest of his offensive stat lines across the last five seasons are similarly underwhelming, except for the solo bounce of 2025. His OPS+ stats since 2022 are 81, 84, 91, 123, 95. The Royals would be putting a less than stellar defender in CF with the hope he was his 28 year old self, rather than his 25, 26, 27, and 29 year old self. He’s a utility platoon guy, who’s not a great defender, and has rarely posted acceptable offensive production. 

[RCT]

Lots of red on Grisham’s savant page.  He probably scares me less than Ward.  Do you think if he moved from CF to LF he would translate to an average defender there?

[Kevin O'Brien]

4 hours ago, Shagging Flies said:

Trent Grisham is a rock-hard pass. He’s a 30yr old with three consecutive below Mendoza years, a bounce year in 2025 to a whopping .235 BA, and then a decline to near Mendoza at .211. Signing him is hoping for him to be who he’s been once in the last five seasons.
Maybe you are one of the those falsely enlightened people who don’t care about batting average. If so, the rest of his offensive stat lines across the last five seasons are similarly underwhelming, except for the solo bounce of 2025. His OPS+ stats since 2022 are 81, 84, 91, 123, 95. The Royals would be putting a less than stellar defender in CF with the hope he was his 28 year old self, rather than his 25, 26, 27, and 29 year old self. He’s a utility platoon guy, who’s not a great defender, and has rarely posted acceptable offensive production. 

I get what you're saying about batting average and am totally in agreement with defense. It's likely not going to be there and as you said, it doesn't get better with age.

If you look at the Statcast percentiles in my article, which is hard data, his 2026 wasn't all that different from his 2025. He hits the ball hard, he doesn't chase, and he draws a good number of walks. Now, I don't think he's a top of the order guy, but this is an ideal 6 or 7 hitter who can extend at-bats and showcase some power. His power profile would actually transition well to the K and he was in the 13-17 HR mark with the Padres. That's a heck of a lot better than what the Royals have been getting from LF lately.

I get it. I don't think Grisham is a solution and his playing time would be interesting. But getting him and another outfielder could help give the depth they sorely need.

[Kevin O'Brien]

4 hours ago, RCT said:

Lots of red on Grisham’s savant page.  He probably scares me less than Ward.  Do you think if he moved from CF to LF he would translate to an average defender there?

That's my guess. He was amazing in San Diego, but pretty awful in New York. I think to succeed in LF at the K, you need to have the ability to play CF in a pinch. Grisham can do that.

I really like the hitting profile because he encompasses everything they prioritize: he hits the ball hard, he pulls in in the air, and he doesn't chase. I wouldn't invest a long-term deal to him, but a 2-3 year one? That seems worth the gamble.

[Shagging Flies]

18 hours ago, Kevin O'Brien said:

I get what you're saying about batting average and am totally in agreement with defense. It's likely not going to be there and as you said, it doesn't get better with age.

If you look at the Statcast percentiles in my article, which is hard data, his 2026 wasn't all that different from his 2025. He hits the ball hard, he doesn't chase, and he draws a good number of walks. Now, I don't think he's a top of the order guy, but this is an ideal 6 or 7 hitter who can extend at-bats and showcase some power. His power profile would actually transition well to the K and he was in the 13-17 HR mark with the Padres. That's a heck of a lot better than what the Royals have been getting from LF lately.

I get it. I don't think Grisham is a solution and his playing time would be interesting. But getting him and another outfielder could help give the depth they sorely need.

My “you” in the batting average comment was meant as a universal term for any reader, not directed at the writer. I’ll try to do better at expressing such things. 

[Shagging Flies]

The Savant charts are great information tools. They can lead to rose colored glasses types of bias, though. One blue row can negate most of the red as hitters can be extremely hampered by a weak link. Grisham’s swing% and strike% rows are not nice. 
 

I’d be surprised to see projections for WAR in 2027 come in much above 1.0. There’s a lot of noise in the recent data, though with a 3.5 and a .6. Playing time only covers a portion of the range. Whatever it comes in as, the confidence in it should be low.
 

Still, the Royals are in an outfield crisis and need to upgrade in an underwhelming market. This is a guy that a one year deal looks much better for than two years. He’ll probably get a two year so the question is whether it makes sense for a one’ish WAR guy who could as easily half that value as double it. Doing the better of that in year one doesn’t guarantee with his history that year two isn’t played at the bottom side. I just don’t like guys who are so up and down, have defensive wrinkles, and can’t rely on hitting for average.