Shagging Flies

Well, I never thought I’d write what I’m going to write. I like Foster Griffin for a return, and I think he’s the most upside with the least risk.

I wouldn’t be opposed to him at the two year and dollar range mentioned. However, his 2023-2025 numbers are quite a bit less optimistic than those of his 2026 effort. There’s certainly a risk of buying into a contract year bounce. Still, this dollar range isn’t going to be without different types of risk. I’m editing this after seeing that the 31 year old posted just over 1/3rd of his career WAR last year. Brian, do you see a tangible change in a metric or pitch mix that would indicate a sustainable jump for Soto?

The Savant charts are great information tools. They can lead to rose colored glasses types of bias, though. One blue row can negate most of the red as hitters can be extremely hampered by a weak link. Grisham’s swing% and strike% rows are not nice. I’d be surprised to see projections for WAR in 2027 come in much above 1.0. There’s a lot of noise in the recent data, though with a 3.5 and a .6. Playing time only covers a portion of the range. Whatever it comes in as, the confidence in it should be low. Still, the Royals are in an outfield crisis and need to upgrade in an underwhelming market. This is a guy that a one year deal looks much better for than two years. He’ll probably get a two year so the question is whether it makes sense for a one’ish WAR guy who could as easily half that value as double it. Doing the better of that in year one doesn’t guarantee with his history that year two isn’t played at the bottom side. I just don’t like guys who are so up and down, have defensive wrinkles, and can’t rely on hitting for average.

My “you” in the batting average comment was meant as a universal term for any reader, not directed at the writer. I’ll try to do better at expressing such things.

Trent Grisham is a rock-hard pass. He’s a 30yr old with three consecutive below Mendoza years, a bounce year in 2025 to a whopping .235 BA, and then a decline to near Mendoza at .211. Signing him is hoping for him to be who he’s been once in the last five seasons. Maybe you are one of the those falsely enlightened people who don’t care about batting average. If so, the rest of his offensive stat lines across the last five seasons are similarly underwhelming, except for the solo bounce of 2025. His OPS+ stats since 2022 are 81, 84, 91, 123, 95. The Royals would be putting a less than stellar defender in CF with the hope he was his 28 year old self, rather than his 25, 26, 27, and 29 year old self. He’s a utility platoon guy, who’s not a great defender, and has rarely posted acceptable offensive production.

It takes a lot of fan optimism to believe that the number of holes in the pitching staff can be adequately filled in one offseason. Added to these holes are real risks of a couple of guys with varying mixes of age, injury histories, and high workloads. Wacha was incredibly durable in 2026, but his innings count shows concern for a repeat. Lugo seems to be breaking down. Three new starters aren’t unreasonable for being post season competitive. That’s half of what’s needed in the bullpen. Trade chips to acquire these arms are limited. The cost total for free agency could easily sail past $100 million dollars without sniffing the luxury tier of pitching talent.