Is Seth Lugo Trending in the Wrong Direction?

[Kevin O'Brien]

Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

 

The Royals closed out their season series with the Chicago White Sox, losing two of three to the South Siders at Kauffman Stadium this week. Kansas City earned its lone win in the three-game series on Wednesday evening, beating Chicago 5-4. 

 

On Wednesday, Seth Lugo made his final start of the 2026 season for the Royals. Although Kansas City earned the win, it wasn't Lugo's sharpest outing this year. 

Lugo pitched only 3.1 innings and threw 72 pitches, looking sharp early but struggling once he faced the White Sox batting order a second time. He gave up four runs in the third inning alone, and overall he allowed four runs on seven hits while striking out three and walking zero. It was his shortest start since a 3.2 IP outing on August 30th against the Guardians, where he allowed nine runs on nine hits and two walks while striking out two. 

The 36-year-old veteran showed solid stuff with his breaking pitches in his Wednesday outing, but his fastballs profiled poorly, and he struggled to generate whiff or chase, according to TJ Stuff+ metrics. 

His curveball and sweeper posted 112 TJ Stuff+ marks, and he flooded the zone overall with his seven-pitch mix, as evidenced by a 55.6% overall zone rate. However, he only generated a 12.5% chase, a 12% whiff, and a .423 xwOBACON. It's hard for a pitcher to succeed against an opposing lineup when he's not getting swings-and-misses or weak contact. Thankfully, manager Matt Quatraro pulled Lugo before things could get too bad (like they did against the Guardians). 

With only three games left in the 2026 season, Lugo's season is likely over. The Royals' projected starters this weekend against Cleveland are Noah Cameron, Michael Wacha, and Daniel Lynch IV (though it wouldn't be surprising if Tony Gonsolin replaces Lynch on Sunday). Thus, Lugo finishes his third season with the Royals with a 5.17 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and 1.7 fWAR in 32 outings and 172.1 IP.

While his fWAR is better than last year (0.6), it pales in comparison to 2024, when he finished second in the AL Cy Young race (4.8). His ERA is also 1.02 points higher than a year ago and 2.17 points higher than his 2024 mark. 

With $21.5 million due to him next year, is Lugo still a worthwhile pitcher in the Royals rotation who can be depended on in 2027? Or is the former All-Star due for a steeper regression next year, much to Royals fans' chagrin?

Let's break down what Lugo has done this year and how it compares to previous years, how he fared against other Royals pitchers this season, and what the Royals can do with their veteran pitcher in 2027. 

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Avoiding Bats Was a Problem for Lugo in 2026 (And Led to Overall Issues)

Lugo has never been a pitcher known for having tremendous stuff. Instead, the righty has been known for throwing a lot of pitches and showing pinpoint control and command that limited hard contact. 

This season, he threw nine different pitches and threw a decent amount of each, as shown by his TJ Stuff+ summary. 

Lugo threw five pitches at a 10% or higher rate (sinker, four-seamer, cutter, curveball, and sweeper), and two more pitches between 8 and 10% (slider and changeup). Only four of his pitches had TJ Stuff+ marks over 100 (curveball, sweeper, slider, and slurve), and he only posted an overall TJ Stuff+ of 98, which rates as below average.

That said, his pitch diversity and strong zone rate (51.9%) helped him succeed, especially when his command was on. Unfortunately, his other metrics made it clear he wasn't on often in 2026. His chase rate was 25.3%, his whiff rate was 18.7%, and his xwOBACON was .391. All those marks rate as below average, according to TJ Stats. 

In 2024, Lugo posted a 3.00 ERA in 33 starts and 206.2 IP. However, his stuff quality didn't differ much from what Royals fans saw this season. His TJ Stuff+ summary comparison below illustrates that. 

Lugo's overall TJ Stuff+ of 99 was only one point better than his 2026 TJ Stuff+. He also had a worse zone rate (48%). However, his 29.3% chase rate, 22.5% whiff rate, and .354 xwOBACON were all better than his numbers in those categories this year. Simply put, Lugo was a better "swing-and-miss" pitcher in 2024, and his inability to generate whiffs and chases in 2026 led to him getting hit harder and producing worse results.

The thing is, Lugo started showing these issues with "swing-and-miss" in 2025 as well. He experienced noted declines in chase, whiff, and xwOBACON.

This season, a few positives stood out in Lugo's profile compared to last year. His zone rate went up (more strikes are good). The xwOBACON went down, and the chase rate went up. Lastly, his TJ Stuff+ remained stable, with some key bumps in stuff quality from some offerings (slurve and sweeper).  

However, the whiff rate this year declined by 1.6%. His 18.7% whiff rate was also 3.8% lower than in 2024. Looking at his rolling whiff rate chart over his career via Baseball Savant, Lugo's whiff rate stayed below average for most of the year, with no above-average spikes, unlike in 2024 and 2025. 

No one is saying Lugo needs to be a "swing-and-miss" specialist. It's obvious who Lugo is: a pitcher who relies on pitch diversity and inducing weak contact to succeed.

That said, the former Centenary College of Louisiana product has to find a way to generate more whiffs in 2027 if he wants to keep his spot in the Royals rotation. Stagnation or further decline in whiffs could lead to a worse ERA and overall lackluster production, as it was this season. 

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Lugo Was More "Snake-Bitten" Than Other Starting Pitchers

Despite an ERA over five, Lugo's 1.7 fWAR was the third-best mark among Royals starting pitchers this season, behind only Noah Cameron (2.8) and Michael Wacha (2.4).

A major contributor to Lugo's higher-than-expected fWAR is the fact that he was an innings-eater, despite his struggles. His 172.1 IP were the second-most innings for a Royals pitcher this year, behind only Wacha (194.1 IP). 

When you compare his overall metrics this year with other Royals starting pitchers, two categories stand out: BABIP and LOB%. 

Lugo's .333 BABIP was the highest mark among Kansas City starting pitchers this year, and his 67.6% LOB% was the fourth-lowest as well. When a pitcher gives up a lot of base hits on batted balls and doesn't strand runners as well as in years past, rough batted-ball luck could be the culprit. 

This hasn't been a typical trend for Lugo in those categories, especially with the Royals. 

In 2024, Lugo had a .277 BABIP and a 75.1% LOB%. In 2025, he had a .266 BABIP and a 79.4% LOB%.

If Lugo can see his BABIP bounce back to that .270-.280 range and his LOB% return to the 75+% range, he could be a 4.00 ERA pitcher in 2027, which would be more than serviceable for a No. 3-4 starter in the rotation. That's what the Royals need right now: some stability at the bottom of the rotation. That's a lot harder to find in free agency (it's easier to find a productive one than a productive 3-4 guy, as long as money isn't the issue). 

Of course, generating more swing-and-miss and strikeouts would help make him less reliant on BABIP and LOB%. So it will be interesting to see whether Lugo tweaks his pitch mix in 2026 to become a better "swing-and-miss" pitcher in 2027. 

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What is Lugo's Outlook in 2027?

As a Royal, Lugo has had one elite season, one serviceable season, and one below-average season. Then again, saying "below average" may be kind, as his ERA this year was the worst mark of any qualified starting pitcher in baseball (and that was before his latest start). 

That said, some regression was probably expected, especially when you look at FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). 

To further illustrate that batted-ball luck could've been in play this season, Lugo's 4.37 FIP was 0.80 points lower than his actual ERA. Thus, the veteran righty should've been better than his ERA indicated, at least based on his lower FIP. 

Surprisingly, the opposite has been true for Lugo with the Royals in previous years.

In 2024, Lugo's ERA was 3.00, and his FIP was 3.25. Last year, his ERA was respectable at 4.15, but his FIP was 5.09. Even over his career, Lugo's 3.88 FIP is 0.14 higher than his 3.74 career ERA.

However, his high 2025 FIP may have signaled regression in 2026. Thus, that FIP trend, especially from 2025, makes the extension he signed at the end of the 2025 season even tougher to stomach. 

Conversely, if FIP indicated regression was due in 2026, his FIP this year may suggest a bounce-back in 2027.

This past season showed signs that could support the latter theory: his walk rate and HR/9 were down, and his GB% was up from 2025. He also posted a better FIP than other options like Lynch IV and Cole Ragans, who could be in the mix next year (though Ragans won't be back until mid-season). 

Lugo was certainly bad in 2026. There's no doubt about it, especially given that inflated ERA. However, a deeper look at his data suggests Royals fans should feel better about his outlook going into 2027 than a year ago, when the 2025 metrics weren't in the righty's favor (and the 0.6 fWAR confirmed that). 

Lugo will face concerns in 2027 that will make him a tough dilemma in the Royals rotation, especially if Kansas City hopes to return to the postseason in 2027. 

Will he generate more whiffs next year as a 37-year-old, especially with below-average fastball stuff? Can he find the right mix to return to his 2024 and 2025 levels after such a brutal year, especially in the second half (6.12 ERA in 67.2 IP after the All-Star Break)? Can he live up to a contract that the Royals probably didn't need to offer him after not trading him at the 2025 MLB Trade Deadline? 

Right now, the Royals don't have many options with Lugo.

With $21.5 million due in 2027 and a vesting option for 2028, his contract isn't all that desirable for teams, even in a market where pitching is a premium. Many teams would likely opt for a free-agent pitcher at a fraction of the cost, without giving up any prospect or talent assets. 

Therefore, the Royals may be stuck with Lugo for at least 2027. 

As a result, pitching coaches Brian Sweeney and Mike McFerrin need to work hard with Lugo this offseason to get his pitch mix back on track and closer to what he did in 2024. 

If they cannot help Lugo make the right adjustments, not only will Lugo's tenure be over sooner rather than later, but perhaps the Royals coaching staff and front office as well. 

It's wild that an organization's future can hinge on a soon-to-be 37-year-old pitcher with 1,165.1 career innings under his belt. However, considering the Royals' pitching issues this season, they need starters to step up and perform better.

Lugo is the most logical candidate, especially given his durability and contract. 

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