Is Austin Charles Ready for His Breakout As a Prospect?

[Kevin O'Brien]

Image courtesy of MLB.com/Royals

 

 The Quad Cities River Bandits won game one of their Midwest League playoff game against the South Bend Cubs 8-3.

 

While David Shields and the River Bandits bullpen provided a stellar performance on the mound, the real star of the game was shortstop Austin Charles. The 22-year-old went three-for-five in Tuesday's win, which included five RBI, three coming on a three-run home run hit in the bottom of the seventh.

 

It's been an interesting season for Charles, who got off to a hot start in Quad Cities before suffering a brutal injury that sidelined him for most of the season. However, since returning, Charles hasn't missed a beat and may be one of the most intriguing prospects in the Royals system, especially given his tools and size (he's 6'5, 215 pounds). 

Thus, let's take a look at Charles, what he's done this year, and what Royals fans can expect from the former 20th-round pick, who will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft in December. 

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Charles Was Putting Up a Career Year Until Unfortunate Injury

At the start of the 2026 season, it seemed like Charles was on track for a promotion to Double-A Northwest Arkansas. 

From April 7 to May 19, Charles slashed .306/.377/.491 with an .868 OPS and 124 wRC+ in 108 plate appearances. Not only did he hit three home runs, but he also scored 20 runs, collected 19 RBI, and stole eight bases on nine attempts. Charles also demonstrated strong contact skills at the plate, posting a 0.44 BB/K ratio in his 30-game sample. 

 

Unfortunately, Charles suffered a core injury that required stomach and hip surgery during his game on May 19th. The injury not only placed him on the 60-Day IL but also required surgery that would keep him out for most of the season. It was a disappointing break for Charles, who only played 59 games in High-A in 2025 due to missed time on the IL from a similar injury. 

The former UC-Santa Barbara commit recovered quickly enough to return by the end of the 2026 season. 

In 15 games and 63 plate appearances, Charles slashed .246/.306/.491 with a .798 OPS and 99 wRC+. He did cut the strikeout rate down a bit (14.3%), though the BB/K ratio remained identical to his pre-injury mark. The power numbers were also better after he came back from injury. Charles hit four home runs and posted a .246 ISO, the latter being better than his .185 ISO before he went on the 60-Day IL. 

 

Not only did the numbers look impressive for Charles in his 45-game sample this season with the River Bandits, but the Statcast percentiles also demonstrated that he was making progress as a hitter against Midwest League pitching, especially regarding pulling the ball in the air. 

Charles' 16.7% pull-air% ranked in the 71st percentile, which is a solid mark. He also ranked in the 68th percentile in wOBA (.357) and the 67th percentile in TJ Bat+ (111). His only lackluster Statcast category was BB%, which ranked in the 18th percentile. Conversely, his K% ranked in the 76th percentile, which made up for his low BB%.

What's intriguing about Charles is that he hasn't just shown polish as a hitter, but he has also been a strong defender at shortstop. Even though he may look out of place as a 6'5 shortstop, he is athletic for his size and moves well side-to-side. He's also shown excellent arm strength, which suggests he could at least move to third base if shortstop doesn't work out long-term.  

 

Even though Charles did make eight errors in 40 games played at shortstop, it's those spectacular plays that give him upside as an infielder, though it's unlikely that he will ever reach the levels of Bobby Witt Jr. or Maikel Garcia, system-developed infielders who have won Gold Gloves at the Major League level. 

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What Is Charles' Outlook in 2027 and Beyond?

Charles initially cracked our Top-20 at Royals Keep midway through this year, but he dropped out after missing time due to his injury and the arrival of a few prospects from the 2026 MLB Draft class (as well as Angeibel Gomez from the DSL). However, I don't think it's out of the question to think that Charles could return to the Top 20 by Spring Training next year. 

MLB Pipeline ranked him No. 15 in the Royals system in 2025, but he's currently unranked in their most recent rankings. Here's what Pipeline had to say about Charles in their 2025 scouting report:

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Charles is an extreme athlete with tons of tools, including a plus arm and raw power. He’s tall at 6-foot-5, which doesn’t help his hit tool, but he made some adjustments with his swing this year, getting his hands to load back for a better firing position. The goal is to eliminate some of the length in his swing, helping him make better contact on fastballs and walk more. He still struggles with offspeed, but a tweak in his game planning helped him with his recognition and win counts. Finding stability in his swing will allow him to tap into his raw power. Charles’ frame doesn’t make him your typical shortstop, but he has good movements and a strong internal clock that helps him handle the position, while also getting time at third base in Columbia in ‘24. He’s an average runner, but quick-twitch movements help him on the bases.

After two seasons in Single-A, Charles made significant progress but really struggled with a move to High-A in 2025 while also dealing with injuries. He is only in his age-21 season and still has untapped potential with his tools and athleticism, but the Royals are excited about what it all could look like if he turns things around as he develops.

 

The 2024 season with the Fireflies is a glimpse of what Charles can do when fully healthy. 

In 117 games and 481 plate appearances that season, he slashed .257/.353/.386 with a .739 OPS and 117 wRC+. He also hit 10 home runs, scored 62 runs, collected 64 RBI, and stole 36 bases on 43 attempts. The power wasn't quite there yet, but the speed was, and he showed that he could make decent contact, as evidenced by his 0.40 BB/K ratio. 

Some of the highlights from his 2024 season with the Fireflies showed his tantalizing potential as a 21-year-old, and why he was seen as a "dark-horse" prospect in the Royals system at the time, even though he wasn't selected highly in the 2022 MLB Draft (though Kansas City did give him an overslot $429,500 signing bonus). 

When it comes to what to expect from Charles in 2027, it's a little hazy, though I think Royals fans should be optimistic about his outlook overall as a prospect. 

It wouldn't be surprising for the Royals to have him debut in Double-A ball in 2027, especially after his strong performance in limited action. While he has just 104 games in High-A ball, a .241/.304/.384 slash and .687 OPS in 418 High-A plate appearances is more than respectable. Furthermore, High-A ball would just be a tune-up for him in 2027, and considering Charles will be Rule 5-eligible this December, the Royals cannot afford to waste time with him.

On a positive note, Charles' injury probably prevents him from being selected in the Rule 5 Draft (if one happens at all this year due to the pending lockout). While Charles is talented, he hasn't played above High-A ball, and it's unlikely any team could keep him on the active roster for an entire season. So while it's a setback for Charles, the injury buys the Royals another year to add him to the 40-man roster. 

It will be interesting to see how Charles adjusts to Double-A ball and what the opportunity could look like for him with the Naturals. He should have ample opportunity to play, at least at third base, especially with Justin Johnson and Sam Kulasingam likely graduating to Triple-A Omaha next year.

Daniel Vazquez, another former Top-20 prospect, will probably repeat Double-A, which makes it tough for Charles to matriculate to shortstop next season. However, Vazquez may be on a fast track next year, though his bat seems limited in terms of upside based on his performance in Northwest Arkansas this year. 

It hasn't been an easy two seasons for Charles in Quad Cities. Injuries have robbed him of a lot of playing time, especially this year. That said, Charles has come back strong after returning from the IL, and I think that will merit him a promotion to Double-A in 2027, especially if he continues to do well in the Midwest League playoffs. It also wouldn't be surprising to see Charles get a stint in the Arizona Fall League in order to get him more at-bats. At 22 years old, he's not that far off age-wise from much of the competition. 

The River Bandits play again on Thursday in South Bend in game two of the series. Hopefully, Charles can lead the River Bandits to another victory and boost his prospect stock for 2027 even more.  

 

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