Some Analysis on Bailey Falter

[Kevin O'Brien]

 

Bailey Falter is likely going to make the Opening Day roster, especially in the wake of Luinder Avila and Steven Cruz being optioned to Omaha. Here's a breakdown I did on Twitter about Falter's performance and why Royals fans should be optimistic about his outlook for 2026.

 

Do you agree with my analysis of Falter? Share in the comments below!

[Kevin O'Brien]

Here's the thread for those who can't access Twitter:

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Bailey Falter is likely going to make the #Royals #OpeningDay roster. He's out of options and is an odd fit as a starter, trying to fit a hybrid/long relief role. However, there are some things he's doing this spring that fans should be encouraged about 🧵

Photo Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images

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Falter was very efficient in his last outing against the Dodgers. Went 3.0 IP and struck out 5 with 0 H, 0 ER, and 0 BB allowed. He also had a 41.7% whiff rate and .129 xwOBACON. Those are two characteristics that can make him good in a hybrid role.

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For the spring, the stuff is slightly below average (99 TJ Stuff+). However, his four-seamer is above average at 101 with a 56 grade. While it doesn't have great velocity (92.9 MPH), it has good rise (17.7 iVB) and generates chase (41.2%). It's a pitch to watch in '26

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In terms of his Statcast percentiles, he's limiting hard contact, and the barrel%, xwOBA, and wOBA show that. Would like to see a better CSW (9th percentile), but the high O-Swing% and extension help. It could be better as he gets more work and becomes accustomed to the relief.

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For the spring, his ERA is bad at 5.59. But his FIP is much better at 3.10, and he has a good K-BB% at 17.1%. I think things will neutralize a bit for him once he gets out of the hitter-friendly environment of Arizona.

Overall, while I would prefer Avila in this spot, I don't think Falter is a total wash. I think Falter is trade fodder, and he could be dealt if a team struggles with a SP injury. But I think he could be due for a bounce-back in '26 after a disastrous '25 with the #Royals
 

[Rolando]

I hope Falter has a decent half season to at least be able to trade him at the deadline for a player or two.  KC gave up Sisk & Moss for him, last time I checked, they were doing well so I'm hoping we can receive a serviceable, half season of play from him, and then keep him, or trade for a player or 2 to stock in the Minors. So it will not be a total wash, and that they recoup something on the investment.

[ducat2]

Falter is a probable veteran bet to fill a long relief/swingman role for the Royals. While he lacks the stuff of younger prospects, his ability to fill the zone and eat innings makes him a valuable, albeit unflashy, asset.

Savant classifies him as a flyball pitcher, inducing flyballs or line drives on 62.6% of balls in play. This makes him a high-variance arm; when his location is off, he is prone to the long ball, as evidenced by his 9%-barrel rate allowed last season. Because he does not miss many bats (5.82 K/9, 3.30 BB/9 and 1.76 K/BB in 2025), his success this year will be predicated on whether he can keep the ball in the park at the newer, more compact confines of Kauffman Stadium.

[Kevin O'Brien]

1 hour ago, ducat2 said:

Falter is a probable veteran bet to fill a long relief/swingman role for the Royals. While he lacks the stuff of younger prospects, his ability to fill the zone and eat innings makes him a valuable, albeit unflashy, asset.

Savant classifies him as a flyball pitcher, inducing flyballs or line drives on 62.6% of balls in play. This makes him a high-variance arm; when his location is off, he is prone to the long ball, as evidenced by his 9%-barrel rate allowed last season. Because he does not miss many bats (5.82 K/9, 3.30 BB/9 and 1.76 K/BB in 2025), his success this year will be predicated on whether he can keep the ball in the park at the newer, more compact confines of Kauffman Stadium.

I think those are great points. He throws strikes and can eat innings, which should make him valuable, especially in long relief situations. As you said, he's not really a groundball pitcher, but a flyball one, which carries some risk. It seemed to suit him fine in Pittsburgh, but it'll be interesting to see if he'll benefit as much in the K, especially in the new confines. It didn't seem to last year, but he also had such a small sample size a year ago, too, so I'm willing to give him more of a shot in 2026.