Luis Robert Jr. Could Be the Outfielder the Royals Need

[Kevin O'Brien]

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

The MLB Winter Meetings began on Monday, and the hot stove was heating up, with plenty of rumors swirling about the Royals and the transactions they may make this week. According to Ken Rosenthal, the Royals are interested in acquiring two outfielders this offseason: one through free agency and one through a trade.

When it comes to a possible trade candidate, one name that has been floated is Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox. While the White Sox are in the Central Division with the Royals, it appears that GM Chris Getz is adamant about getting something of value for Robert on the trade market, even if it's a fraction of what it was a few seasons ago. 

Bradford Doolittle of ESPN predicted Robert going to the Royals in a recent ESPN Winter Meetings preview piece. Here's what Doolittle said about the possible fit for Robert in Kansas City.

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Enter Robert, whose work on strike zone judgment seemed to be paying off in the latter stages of last season. He's younger than Duran and has more power upside without sacrificing speed and defense. The Royals' new hitting staff is hyper-focused on improving pitch recognition, and I'd love for them to be new voices in Robert's ear. The Royals could keep Ragans and modulate their rotation/prospect return based on Chicago's willingness to pay down some of Robert's $20 million for next season. Alas, this would be more palatable from a payroll perspective if the Royals had not already committed $8 million to run it back with Jonathan India

Robert would come with his fair share of baggage.

Over his career, the Cuban outfielder has played more than 110 games in a season only once, in 2023, when he posted a 4.9 fWAR. Last year, in addition to playing 110 games and accumulating 431 plate appearances, he slashed .223/.297/.364 with a .661 OPS, 84 wRC+, and 1.3 fWAR. He also hit 14 home runs and stole 33 bases with the White Sox in 2025.

While that's not an awful line (he has a positive fWAR at least), it certainly isn't the ideal profile of a player who will be making $20 million next season. 

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Robert Has the Power Profile to Fit in Kansas City (And New Staff Could Help)

There's no question that Robert's surface-level metrics are pretty disappointing, which is why many Royals fans are averse to GM JJ Picollo acquiring the White Sox outfielder. However, when diving deeper into his profile, he checks a lot of boxes for the Royals in terms of satisfying their outfield needs this offseason.

While he only had 14 home runs and a .141 ISO last season, his exit velocity, barrel, and launch angle metrics were a lot more palatable. That is evident in his TJ Stats summary below.

Robert's Max EV ranked in the 90th percentile, his 90th EV ranked in the 64th percentile, his barrel rate ranked in the 61st percentile, and his LA Sweet-Spot percentage ranked in the 65th percentile. Additionally, he also pulled the ball well, with a 67th percentile pull rate and 59th percentile Pull Air percentage. That ability to pull the ball is key, as it can lead to many home runs at Kauffman Stadium (the gaps are what kill most hitters). 

Granted, there may be a home run decline or plateau in Robert's move to the K, and that is evident: Of his 103 career home runs, only 89 would've gone out at Kauffman, according to Statcast data. However, he could still find a lot of extra-base hit production based on his hits spray chart from last year, modified for Kauffman Stadium dimensions.

Right now, the Royals outfield depth looks thin, and not just in the corners, but even in center field. While Kyle Isbel is a phenomenal defensive outfielder (he was a Gold Glove finalist last year), his hitting has left a bit to be desired, especially against left-handed pitchers. Isbel had a 56 wRC+ against lefties last year, and he has a 64 wRC+ mark against southpaws over his career. Having someone like Robert, who can play center, could keep the Royals competitive against left-handed starting pitchers.

When looking beyond Isbel, Robert's Statcast profile looks pretty impressive compared to other Royals outfielders currently on the 40-man roster who are projected to be on the Opening Day roster as of today, according to Roster Resource. 

 As Royals fans can see from above, Robert tops the other three Royals outfielders in not just wOBA, but xwOBA as well. He also compares well with Jac Caglianone in terms of batted-ball and barrel skills, which is encouraging, especially considering Caglianone was so well-known for those two skills as a prospect. 

While Robert still needs work, the upside of bringing Robert in is that the Royals have a new hitting coach staff who not only could help him, but are also familiar with him. Obviously, Alec Zumwalt knows Robert quite well after playing against him for so many seasons. That said, the new assistant hitting coach, Marcus Thames, also worked closely with Robert in Chicago. That familiarity could help, especially since Thames will be able to do more work individually with Robert in Kansas City than he could in Chicago, when he had to run the entire team hitting program.

That kind of attention could be the boost Robert needs to help him turn his career around after two subpar seasons by his standards (1.9 fWAR combined over the past two seasons). 

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Robert Brings a Solid Defensive and Baserunning Profile

While the Royals had a Gold Glove-caliber outfielder in Isbel, the rest of the outfield was pretty mediocre in 2025, based on Fielding Run Value. The Royals ranked 16th in the league in FRV with a -1 mark, a six-run drop from their 2024 mark, when they ranked 8th in outfield FRV. 

Thus, it's important for the Royals not just to find a solid-hitting outfielder but one that can hold his own defensively in Kauffman's spacious dimensions.

Robert fits that mold perfectly.

Last season, the 28-year-old produced a +7 FRV and +7 OAA. Based on Statcast OAA box plot data chart, Robert showed an ability to cover all kinds of ground in center field. 

Robert could easily play one of the corner outfield spots against right-handed starting pitchers (most likely left field) and play center field when the Royals face left-handed starting pitchers. That's the kind of defensive versatility and value Kansas City has been missing the past couple of seasons, especially from outfielders who hit in the middle of the lineup (which Robert would).

Another positive of Robert's profile is that he is a solid baserunner, which fits in manager Matt Quatraro's aggressive philosophy.

In 2024, the Royals ranked fifth in baserunning runs above average with a +9 mark, according to Statcast. Last season, they ranked 24th in baseball with a -4 mark.  That's a 13-run difference and honestly, a key contributor to why they won four fewer games in 2025. 

As for Robert, he produced +2 runs on the basepaths last year, with three of those runs coming on stolen bases. That led all White Sox players with 10 or more opportunities, according to Statcast. Furthermore, Robert's 33 stolen bases would've ranked second among Royals players last season. 

Thus, the White Sox centerfielder would boost the Royals not just at the plate, but in the field and on the basepaths in 2026. 

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A Trade That Could Work for the White Sox and Royals

There's no question that Robert presents a financial challenge for the Royals with his $20 million salary for 2026. However, the Royals could trade a couple of bad contracts to the White Sox in exchange for taking Robert off their books.

The Royals tendered deals to pitcher Bailey Falter and second baseman Jonathan India this offseason, with India agreeing to an $8 million contract on November 22nd. Falter is still in the negotiation process. 

The White Sox already have a second baseman of the future in Chase Meidroth. However, they may be open to having India around as insurance and to provide some veteran leadership on the club. India could be a good mentor for Meidroth, and India could take on designated hitter duties for a White Sox lineup that ranked 28th in OPS and 27th in runs scored. 

As for Falter, he is out of Minor League options and may be a better fit for the White Sox rotation, who have bigger question marks in the No. 4 and 5 spots. New White Sox pitching coach Zach Bove has familiarity with Falter, and thus, could get the most out of the lefty. Furthermore, Falter could end up being a nice trade piece at the Trade Deadline if he bounces back. 

To balance out the trade, based on Baseball Trade Value surplus value, reliever Brandon Eisert would be thrown into the deal along with Robert. Eisert posted a 4.54 FIP last year in 69.2 IP and could be a nice middle-innings arm for the Royals, who could thrive under the Royals' pitching coach team. 

Here's the trade in its entirety, via BTV. Their model validated this deal as a fair trade for both sides. 

This deal could be a win-win for both Kansas City and Chicago. The White Sox get a couple of possible Trade Deadline flip pieces, and the Royals get a lineup-changing outfielder and a reliever who could add some depth to the bullpen (who also has Minor League options). 

Of course, Robert has to stay healthy to make this deal a valuable one for the Royals in 2026.

However, if he does, then Kansas City may get an All-Star-caliber player for next season, which will help them in their quest to return to the postseason. 

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[Hokius]

I'm all in favor of Luis Robert with two caveats. They can't pay much in a trade and he can't be the highlight of the offseason. He's a bounce back candidate, not an answer.

 

Your trade proposal works for me, I don't know if it does for the White Sox because I think they think he should have more value than that. 

[Kevin O'Brien]

35 minutes ago, Hokius said:

I'm all in favor of Luis Robert with two caveats. They can't pay much in a trade and he can't be the highlight of the offseason. He's a bounce back candidate, not an answer.

 

Your trade proposal works for me, I don't know if it does for the White Sox because I think they think he should have more value than that. 

I agree with both of your points. I don't think Robert should be the highlight of the offseason by any means. And I don't think he needs to be, because if you can offload India and Falter's salaries, it's essentially paying $8-10 million for a free agent. As Picollo said, they need two outfielders, so this would be the trade option, which would then perhaps allow for a bigger splash in free agency (or a bigger trade, since they're not giving up any prospect capital).

It would be an interesting one for White Sox for sure. However, I get the feeling that they're selling much lower than before. I think you can probably substitute Tolbert for maybe a higher-rated prospect in the 20-30 range, maybe 15. However, I think they realized that the ship on getting a top prospect for Robert has sailed and they want to get something while they still can (while also getting his salary off books). 

[Kerry Flanagan]

I'm in favor of this. There is so little available on the OF market, especially a RH hitting CF, or even an every day regular at any OF spots and the need for the Royals is so glaring. Any hints of Roberts being a clubhouse problem? There certainly seemed to be an element of IDGAF going around the ChiSox last year but I guess constantly losing may do that to you. Roberts being only 28 is key. 

[Kerry Flanagan]

The only other real CF options that we are aware of are Jake Myers and Harrison Bader. You'll pay more or less the same for Bader as you will Roberts minus India in '26, but you'll be stuck with Bader for potentially 3 years.

[Kevin O'Brien]

5 hours ago, Kerry Flanagan said:

I'm in favor of this. There is so little available on the OF market, especially a RH hitting CF, or even an every day regular at any OF spots and the need for the Royals is so glaring. Any hints of Roberts being a clubhouse problem? There certainly seemed to be an element of IDGAF going around the ChiSox last year but I guess constantly losing may do that to you. Roberts being only 28 is key. 

Yeah, I agree. The market isn't there and guys like Bader are going to be more expensive than they're worth. We also saw the boost Andrew Vaughn had when he moved from CHI to MKE. The fact that we have a guy in Dawson who came from that coaching staff makes me think Robert could experience a similar kind of bounceback, especially since he's in winning environment.

[Kevin O'Brien]

5 hours ago, Kerry Flanagan said:

The only other real CF options that we are aware of are Jake Myers and Harrison Bader. You'll pay more or less the same for Bader as you will Roberts minus India in '26, but you'll be stuck with Bader for potentially 3 years.

Yep. Plus Robert has a club option for 2027 so the Royals have flexibility there to part ways with him if it goes badly or perhaps flip him to someone if he bounces back. You wouldn't get that kind of flexibility with a three-year deal with Bader, which seems to be most likely option right now.