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Kevin O'Brien

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  1. Image courtesy of BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK Safe to say, expectations weren't high for Brett Squires entering Royals Spring Training in Arizona. Squires wasn't an official non-roster invitee, meaning that his starting outlook in 2026 would be in the Minor Leagues. A couple of seasons ago, the former University of Oklahoma product seemed to be making the case as a dark horse for a 40-man roster spot. In High-A Quad Cities in 2024, the undrafted prospect posted a .309/.390/.481 slash with a .401 wOBA and 151 wRC+ in 270 plate appearances. He only had nine home runs, but he likely would've surpassed his 15-HR mark in 2023 in Columbia in 122 games had he not gotten injured. Despite the shortened sample, he stole 16 bases and collected 42 RBI. There was some hope that Squires would make a run for a roster spot in 2025 despite not being added to the 40-man roster in the offseason. He went unselected in the Rule 5 Draft that December, but that didn't mean he didn't hold potential as a dark horse prospect in Double-A Northwest Arkansas. Unfortunately, the power didn't develop as hoped last season, and the overall metrics plateaued a bit as well over a larger sample of games. In 116 games and 496 plate appearances, Squires slashed .248/.327/.411 with a .341 wOBA and 105 wRC+. While those latter numbers are encouraging, he only hit 10 home runs and posted an ISO of .163. That latter mark was nine points lower than his 2024 mark in Quad Cities and his 2023 mark in Columbia. He also struck out 27% of the time, had a 0.36 BB/K ratio, and a contact rate of 67.4%, according to Fangraphs. The Texas-born corner infielder showed flashes, with this bomb hit against Wichita in May being a prime example. That said, while Squires had those flashes of mammoth power, he just didn't do it enough consistently. As a result, he went undrafted again in the Rule 5 Draft this past December and wasn't listed as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training. And yet, despite his long odds and lack of at-bats, Squires is doing all he can to turn heads in Arizona. Squires Putting Up Solid Statcast Metrics This Spring When it comes to Squires' Statcast profile from a year ago via TJ Stats, there isn't much because Double-A data isn't publicly available. However, the limited profile of his campaign in Northwest Arkansas last year is nonetheless interesting to see. Squires' wOBA was decent, ranking in the 65th percentile. He also swung a LOT last year, as his 53.8% swing rate ranked in the 90th percentile. However, his whiff rate ranked in the 14th percentile, and his K% ranked in the 22nd percentile. Those two numbers aren't encouraging, especially for a hitter who swings as much as Squires. On the flip side, his walk rate wasn't terrible at 9.7%, which ranked in the 43rd percentile. Add that with a strong ability to pull the ball in the air (14.8%, 60th percentile), and one can see why Squires could be an intriguing fringe prospect to the more analytically inclined Royals fan. Still, the profile last year wasn't enough to garner Squire much love in most prospect lists, including ours at Royals Keep. That said, here's a look at what Squires is doing so far in Spring Training. Some things haven't changed for Squires. He still whiffs a lot, as his 35.3% whiff rate ranks in the 17th percentile and his 66.7% Z-Contact% ranks in the 8th percentile. However, everything else has been quite impressive. His 90th EV, Max EV, Barrel%, and Pull Air% rank in the 100th percentile. His wOBA, xwOBA, Average EV, and LA Sweet-Spot% rank in the 99th percentile. Lastly, his O-Swing% ranks in the 98th percentile, and his hard-hit rate ranks in the 78th percentile. While it's not a whole lot of plate appearances or batted ball events (just 5), he is locked in, and it's been fun to see in Spring Training, as illustrated in the video of his homer below. Squires saw a 100.3 MPH four-seamer from Colorado's Seth Halvorsen and absolutely launched it. Here's what the exit velocity and distance on Squires' home run looked like via Savant. Furthermore, here's a look at the pitch chart matchup between Squires and Halvorsen. Notice the location of Halvorsen's pitch below. That's not an easy pitch to go yard on, especially at 100+ MPH. And yet, Squires got his hands around the pitch and launched it 393 feet with an exit velocity of 103 MPH. And it's not just that particular home run where Squires has succeeded. According to TJ Stats' Statcast leaderboard for Royals players, Squires ranks third in average EV (100.8 MPH), third in 90th EV (115.8 MPH), and second in Max EV (115.8 MPH). Again, it's a small sample, but it shows the kind of impact Squires has made at the plate in Spring Training. What Does This Mean for Squires? Squires likely will begin the year in Triple-A Omaha, probably splitting time at first base with Abraham Toro, who is a non-roster invitee. However, while Squires will begin the year with the Storm Chasers, he will still be one to watch in Spring Training, especially with players like Vinnie Pasquantino, Jac Caglianone, and Salvador Perez, all of whom play first base, participating in the World Baseball Classic. Thus, Squires will get at-bats for the next week or two, simply due to so many Royals playing in the WBC. If Squires can continue this exit velocity and barrel trend over the next two weeks, he could not just earn a starting spot in Omaha, but also put him on the radar of some other teams looking to acquire cheap power at first base. With Pasquantion locked in at first base for the foreseeable future, Squires may be more of a trade asset than one who can matriculate to the Major Leagues and have an impact with the Royals. His situation feels similar to CJ Alexander in 2024. Alexander was launching balls as a fringe prospect, especially in Triple-A Omaha (as seen below in his Statcast profile), but he showed in a short call-up that he wasn't ready for MLB competition. The former Braves draft pick was designated for assignment later in the season by Kansas City, but he could've been a player that the Royals could've utilized in a trade with a team desperate for offensive help. However, because Kansas City exposed him to MLB competition, his trade value plummeted. The Royals learned their lesson with Cam Devanney: not exposing him to MLB pitching, but instead utilizing him in a midseason trade for Adam Frazier. Maybe Squires is a Four-A player like Alexander, or he finds success in the NPB (Japan) like Devanney. That said, I think there's a player in Squires who can generate some serious buzz in Omaha, especially in their hitter-friendly environment. If he can build on this spring and continue to mash in Triple-A, he could build himself up to be a throw-in piece to a trade later in the season, which isn't a bad asset for the Royals to have. View full article
  2. Safe to say, expectations weren't high for Brett Squires entering Royals Spring Training in Arizona. Squires wasn't an official non-roster invitee, meaning that his starting outlook in 2026 would be in the Minor Leagues. A couple of seasons ago, the former University of Oklahoma product seemed to be making the case as a dark horse for a 40-man roster spot. In High-A Quad Cities in 2024, the undrafted prospect posted a .309/.390/.481 slash with a .401 wOBA and 151 wRC+ in 270 plate appearances. He only had nine home runs, but he likely would've surpassed his 15-HR mark in 2023 in Columbia in 122 games had he not gotten injured. Despite the shortened sample, he stole 16 bases and collected 42 RBI. There was some hope that Squires would make a run for a roster spot in 2025 despite not being added to the 40-man roster in the offseason. He went unselected in the Rule 5 Draft that December, but that didn't mean he didn't hold potential as a dark horse prospect in Double-A Northwest Arkansas. Unfortunately, the power didn't develop as hoped last season, and the overall metrics plateaued a bit as well over a larger sample of games. In 116 games and 496 plate appearances, Squires slashed .248/.327/.411 with a .341 wOBA and 105 wRC+. While those latter numbers are encouraging, he only hit 10 home runs and posted an ISO of .163. That latter mark was nine points lower than his 2024 mark in Quad Cities and his 2023 mark in Columbia. He also struck out 27% of the time, had a 0.36 BB/K ratio, and a contact rate of 67.4%, according to Fangraphs. The Texas-born corner infielder showed flashes, with this bomb hit against Wichita in May being a prime example. That said, while Squires had those flashes of mammoth power, he just didn't do it enough consistently. As a result, he went undrafted again in the Rule 5 Draft this past December and wasn't listed as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training. And yet, despite his long odds and lack of at-bats, Squires is doing all he can to turn heads in Arizona. Squires Putting Up Solid Statcast Metrics This Spring When it comes to Squires' Statcast profile from a year ago via TJ Stats, there isn't much because Double-A data isn't publicly available. However, the limited profile of his campaign in Northwest Arkansas last year is nonetheless interesting to see. Squires' wOBA was decent, ranking in the 65th percentile. He also swung a LOT last year, as his 53.8% swing rate ranked in the 90th percentile. However, his whiff rate ranked in the 14th percentile, and his K% ranked in the 22nd percentile. Those two numbers aren't encouraging, especially for a hitter who swings as much as Squires. On the flip side, his walk rate wasn't terrible at 9.7%, which ranked in the 43rd percentile. Add that with a strong ability to pull the ball in the air (14.8%, 60th percentile), and one can see why Squires could be an intriguing fringe prospect to the more analytically inclined Royals fan. Still, the profile last year wasn't enough to garner Squire much love in most prospect lists, including ours at Royals Keep. That said, here's a look at what Squires is doing so far in Spring Training. Some things haven't changed for Squires. He still whiffs a lot, as his 35.3% whiff rate ranks in the 17th percentile and his 66.7% Z-Contact% ranks in the 8th percentile. However, everything else has been quite impressive. His 90th EV, Max EV, Barrel%, and Pull Air% rank in the 100th percentile. His wOBA, xwOBA, Average EV, and LA Sweet-Spot% rank in the 99th percentile. Lastly, his O-Swing% ranks in the 98th percentile, and his hard-hit rate ranks in the 78th percentile. While it's not a whole lot of plate appearances or batted ball events (just 5), he is locked in, and it's been fun to see in Spring Training, as illustrated in the video of his homer below. Squires saw a 100.3 MPH four-seamer from Colorado's Seth Halvorsen and absolutely launched it. Here's what the exit velocity and distance on Squires' home run looked like via Savant. Furthermore, here's a look at the pitch chart matchup between Squires and Halvorsen. Notice the location of Halvorsen's pitch below. That's not an easy pitch to go yard on, especially at 100+ MPH. And yet, Squires got his hands around the pitch and launched it 393 feet with an exit velocity of 103 MPH. And it's not just that particular home run where Squires has succeeded. According to TJ Stats' Statcast leaderboard for Royals players, Squires ranks third in average EV (100.8 MPH), third in 90th EV (115.8 MPH), and second in Max EV (115.8 MPH). Again, it's a small sample, but it shows the kind of impact Squires has made at the plate in Spring Training. What Does This Mean for Squires? Squires likely will begin the year in Triple-A Omaha, probably splitting time at first base with Abraham Toro, who is a non-roster invitee. However, while Squires will begin the year with the Storm Chasers, he will still be one to watch in Spring Training, especially with players like Vinnie Pasquantino, Jac Caglianone, and Salvador Perez, all of whom play first base, participating in the World Baseball Classic. Thus, Squires will get at-bats for the next week or two, simply due to so many Royals playing in the WBC. If Squires can continue this exit velocity and barrel trend over the next two weeks, he could not just earn a starting spot in Omaha, but also put him on the radar of some other teams looking to acquire cheap power at first base. With Pasquantion locked in at first base for the foreseeable future, Squires may be more of a trade asset than one who can matriculate to the Major Leagues and have an impact with the Royals. His situation feels similar to CJ Alexander in 2024. Alexander was launching balls as a fringe prospect, especially in Triple-A Omaha (as seen below in his Statcast profile), but he showed in a short call-up that he wasn't ready for MLB competition. The former Braves draft pick was designated for assignment later in the season by Kansas City, but he could've been a player that the Royals could've utilized in a trade with a team desperate for offensive help. However, because Kansas City exposed him to MLB competition, his trade value plummeted. The Royals learned their lesson with Cam Devanney: not exposing him to MLB pitching, but instead utilizing him in a midseason trade for Adam Frazier. Maybe Squires is a Four-A player like Alexander, or he finds success in the NPB (Japan) like Devanney. That said, I think there's a player in Squires who can generate some serious buzz in Omaha, especially in their hitter-friendly environment. If he can build on this spring and continue to mash in Triple-A, he could build himself up to be a throw-in piece to a trade later in the season, which isn't a bad asset for the Royals to have.
  3. Here's my latest Royals TJ Stats Spring Training Pitching recap, which I did on Bluesky. Interesting game today, as they had an exhibition against Team Cuba ahead of pool play in the WBC on March 5th. Please make sure to subscribe to TJ Stats and follow my accounts on Bluesky (@royalreportkev.bsky.social) and Twitter (@CrownTalk_KC), as I will try to do these recaps daily during the Cactus League campaign.
  4. Thanks for that perspective. I haven't seen him this spring, but the data stands out. He really has seemed to get better since the end of the year, and as you said, there's a lot of high-leverage reliever potential in his profile. I think he starts in the Minor League but moves quickly in the system and is called up at some point.
  5. Image courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images The Royals are 10 games into Spring Training and have a 5-5 record after their loss today to the Angels. Granted, Spring Training results always have to be taken with a grain of salt. After all, Kansas City has plenty of Cactus League success in the past, only for those accolades not to carry over into the regular season. Thus, while more wins in Arizona would be nice, the more important aspect of Spring Training for this team is staying healthy and getting warmed up for Opening Day against Atlanta on March 26th. One interesting thing to watch in Spring Training is how players perform and if there's any underlying data that can hint at a solid upcoming season. With Statcast now fully functional and public in every Spring Training facility, baseball fans, including Royals fans, have access to a range of metrics on hitters and pitchers that weren't available publicly before. Thus, in this post, I am going to look at five Royals players who are standing out in Cactus League play due to a particular metric. I will focus on three hitters and two pitches, explain what those metrics mean, and what those metrics could hint at for the upcoming season for that particular player. All metrics are courtesy of TJ Stats' MLB Batter Leaderboard, available on his site. Jac Caglianone: 18.5% Chase% Much has been made about Caglianone's power this Spring. After all, his Statcast metrics are pretty ridiculous right now, especially in terms of batted-ball quality. Over 12 BBE (batted-ball events), he is producing a .522 xwOBA, a 25% barrel rate, a 66.7% hard-hit rate, a 116.5 MPH 90th EV, and 120.2 MPH Max EV. Safe to say, he looks a lot more comfortable at the plate this spring than he did in his call-up last season. Past the Eye Test highlighted Caglianone's spring with his app tool, and everything seems aligned for the former Royals first-round pick to break out in 2026. While the hard-hit and exit velocity metrics are impressive, as well as the lack of whiff, the plate discipline Caglianone has demonstrated this spring has been the most eye-popping. In 20 plate appearances, he has only had an 18.5% chase rate. For context, he had a 38.5% chase rate in 232 plate appearances last year. Thus, a 20% positive difference is a good sign that Caglianone is not only coming to the plate with a better plan, but that the hitting coach team, with new assistant hitting coaches Connor Dawson and Marcus Thames, is having an impact. Granted, it's only 20 plate appearances, and it's Spring Training. Thus, Royals fans shouldn't be putting down their "Caglianone for MVP" bets just yet. Pitchers are often rusty at this point in Spring Training, and so the lack of chase may be more due to pitchers' shoddy control than Caglianone's plate discipline. Nonetheless, he's looking confident at the plate, and his ability to lay off waste pitches that he swung at a year ago is a promising sign for him as a hitter, even if it's just Spring Training. If this approach carries over to the World Baseball Classic (he will be playing for Italy), then the Royals have to feel really good about his outlook this season. Josh Rojas: 63.6% Hard-Hit Rate The addition of Starling Marte makes it a little more challenging for Rojas to make the Royals' Opening Day roster as a non-roster invitee. However, the 31-year-old infielder is doing all he can to prove that he deserves a chance to show Kansas City what he can do after a down season with the White Sox in 2025 (.180 average and .511 OPS in 189 PA). In 14 PA and over 11 BBEs, Rojas has a .555 xwOBACON, a 36.4% barrel rate, and 106.6 MPH 90th EV. Furthermore, the most impressive Statcast metric? His 63.6% hard-hit rate. That has helped him hit two home runs and generate a .615 ISO in his small Spring Training sample. Over the past two seasons, Rojas has hovered around a league-average hard-hit rate, which is around 38%. In 2024, his hard-hit rate with the 38.2%. His hard-hit rate last year? 36.8%, which is 1.4% lower than what he did in 2024 with the Mariners. Thus, he's obviously not going to sustain a 60+% hard-hit rate into the regular season. That said, could he hit that 38% hard-hit rate or slightly above? If so, he could be a .670-.700 OPS hitter with stellar defense in the infield, which would be a nice asset to have off the bench. Michael Massey: 70% Sweet Spot% Massey is entering a crucial season in 2026. He showed promise in 2024, hitting .259 with 14 home runs and a .743 OPS in 332 plate appearances. Unfortunately, he took a step back in 2025, hitting .244 with only three home runs and a .581 OPS in 262 plate appearances. MJ Melendez was entering a crucial season last year and couldn't produce. The Royals are hoping that Massey can avoid Melendez's fate. So far, the 27-year-old is off to a great start this spring. In 15 PA, he's hitting .538 with a .606 wOBA and one home run. What's interesting about Massey's profile is that he isn't hitting the ball all that hard. He doesn't have a barrel, and his xwOBA is only .379, a significant gap from his actual wOBA. That said, what has made Massey successful this spring has been his ability to launch the ball. Not only does he have an average launch angle of 14.5 degrees, but he also has a Sweet Spot% of 70%. That shows that Massey can launch the ball effectively, even if he's not producing consistent premium exit velocity. Launching the ball has always been a strength of Massey's. Even though he struggled to produce decent exit velocity, barrel, or hard-hit rates in 2025, he did rank in the 58th percentile in Sweet Spot%, according to his TJ Stats summary. I think there is still something left in the tank with Massey, and his 2025 may have been more injury-plagued than fans were led to believe. The fact that he's launching the ball effectively this spring and producing some hard hits occasionally with that consistent launch angle could be a sign that he's ready to bounce back to his 2024 numbers. Ryan Bergert: 104 TJ Stuff+ overall Much has been said about the Royals' starting pitching depth this spring. However, things got off to a rough start this spring, with Stephen Kolek initially shut down due to a grade 1+ oblique strain (which should put him out for around five weeks). Thankfully, the depth the Royals have built has come in handy, especially with Bergert, also acquired with Kolek from the Padres at the Trade Deadline last year, off to a stellar start in Cactus League play. In two outings and three innings pitched, he has a 0.00 ERA and 0.67 with two strikeouts and a walk allowed. The results haven't been eye-popping on a strikeout (18.2% K%) or whiff (26.3%) end, but he's demonstrated excellent stuff so far through two starts. His 104 overall TJ Stuff+ leads all Royals pitchers, and five of his six pitches have a TJ Stuff+ mark of 100 or higher. Below is a breakdown of his TJ Stuff+ profile via TJ Stats. Granted, Bergert has struggled a bit finding the strike zone (42.1%) in his first two outings, but his ability to generate chase (40.9% chase rate) and limit hard contact (.194 xwOBACON) has helped him succeed this spring. He may still be on the outside looking in when it comes to a rotation spot (Noah Cameron holds a slight edge for the 5th spot). However, if he keeps showing this stuff in Cactus League play, he'll make it tough for the Royals to keep him off the Opening Day roster. Dennis Colleran: 39.4% CSW% (Called-Strike-Plus-Whiff) CSW can be a good stat for evaluating how effectively a pitcher generates strikes overall (read this piece from Alex Fast on Pitcher List on the creation and breakdown of this relatively new statistic). The better the CSW, the more dependable a pitch can be when it comes to getting strikeouts and putting hitters at a disadvantage. When it comes to the Top 5 Royals pitchers this spring in terms of CSW, Andrew Perez, who pitched in the Independent League last year, leads with a 56.3% CSW (though he has only seen five batters). Cole Ragans is second with a 44.4% CSW, and Kris Bubic is third with a 41.9% CSW. The fourth? Colleran, who has a CSW of 39.4%. Colleran may be one of the most underrated pitching prospects in the Royals system, mostly because he's a reliever. However, he posted a 2.85 ERA, 3.52 FIP, and 27.1% K% across three levels and 66.1 IP last year. In Cactus League play, he's been dominant, not only sporting a near 40% CSW, but a 0.00 ERA, 33.3% K%, and 1.10 FIP in three innings of work. While the sample size is small, his Statcast percentiles have been impressive, as seen below. There's a lot of red in his profile, which is an encouraging trend. He ranks in the 84th percentile in whiff rate, 85th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and 89th percentile in CSW. Lastly, he also ranks in the 97th percentile in fastball velocity, and three of his four pitches have TJ Stuff+ marks of a 100 or higher (his four-seamer is just below that threshold at 99). It's still early in Cactus League play. However, Colleran has a Major League reliever profile and is pitching well enough to earn a midseason call-up at the latest (earlier if one believes in the TINSTAAPP principle). View full article
  6. The Royals are 10 games into Spring Training and have a 5-5 record after their loss today to the Angels. Granted, Spring Training results always have to be taken with a grain of salt. After all, Kansas City has plenty of Cactus League success in the past, only for those accolades not to carry over into the regular season. Thus, while more wins in Arizona would be nice, the more important aspect of Spring Training for this team is staying healthy and getting warmed up for Opening Day against Atlanta on March 26th. One interesting thing to watch in Spring Training is how players perform and if there's any underlying data that can hint at a solid upcoming season. With Statcast now fully functional and public in every Spring Training facility, baseball fans, including Royals fans, have access to a range of metrics on hitters and pitchers that weren't available publicly before. Thus, in this post, I am going to look at five Royals players who are standing out in Cactus League play due to a particular metric. I will focus on three hitters and two pitches, explain what those metrics mean, and what those metrics could hint at for the upcoming season for that particular player. All metrics are courtesy of TJ Stats' MLB Batter Leaderboard, available on his site. Jac Caglianone: 18.5% Chase% Much has been made about Caglianone's power this Spring. After all, his Statcast metrics are pretty ridiculous right now, especially in terms of batted-ball quality. Over 12 BBE (batted-ball events), he is producing a .522 xwOBA, a 25% barrel rate, a 66.7% hard-hit rate, a 116.5 MPH 90th EV, and 120.2 MPH Max EV. Safe to say, he looks a lot more comfortable at the plate this spring than he did in his call-up last season. Past the Eye Test highlighted Caglianone's spring with his app tool, and everything seems aligned for the former Royals first-round pick to break out in 2026. While the hard-hit and exit velocity metrics are impressive, as well as the lack of whiff, the plate discipline Caglianone has demonstrated this spring has been the most eye-popping. In 20 plate appearances, he has only had an 18.5% chase rate. For context, he had a 38.5% chase rate in 232 plate appearances last year. Thus, a 20% positive difference is a good sign that Caglianone is not only coming to the plate with a better plan, but that the hitting coach team, with new assistant hitting coaches Connor Dawson and Marcus Thames, is having an impact. Granted, it's only 20 plate appearances, and it's Spring Training. Thus, Royals fans shouldn't be putting down their "Caglianone for MVP" bets just yet. Pitchers are often rusty at this point in Spring Training, and so the lack of chase may be more due to pitchers' shoddy control than Caglianone's plate discipline. Nonetheless, he's looking confident at the plate, and his ability to lay off waste pitches that he swung at a year ago is a promising sign for him as a hitter, even if it's just Spring Training. If this approach carries over to the World Baseball Classic (he will be playing for Italy), then the Royals have to feel really good about his outlook this season. Josh Rojas: 63.6% Hard-Hit Rate The addition of Starling Marte makes it a little more challenging for Rojas to make the Royals' Opening Day roster as a non-roster invitee. However, the 31-year-old infielder is doing all he can to prove that he deserves a chance to show Kansas City what he can do after a down season with the White Sox in 2025 (.180 average and .511 OPS in 189 PA). In 14 PA and over 11 BBEs, Rojas has a .555 xwOBACON, a 36.4% barrel rate, and 106.6 MPH 90th EV. Furthermore, the most impressive Statcast metric? His 63.6% hard-hit rate. That has helped him hit two home runs and generate a .615 ISO in his small Spring Training sample. Over the past two seasons, Rojas has hovered around a league-average hard-hit rate, which is around 38%. In 2024, his hard-hit rate with the 38.2%. His hard-hit rate last year? 36.8%, which is 1.4% lower than what he did in 2024 with the Mariners. Thus, he's obviously not going to sustain a 60+% hard-hit rate into the regular season. That said, could he hit that 38% hard-hit rate or slightly above? If so, he could be a .670-.700 OPS hitter with stellar defense in the infield, which would be a nice asset to have off the bench. Michael Massey: 70% Sweet Spot% Massey is entering a crucial season in 2026. He showed promise in 2024, hitting .259 with 14 home runs and a .743 OPS in 332 plate appearances. Unfortunately, he took a step back in 2025, hitting .244 with only three home runs and a .581 OPS in 262 plate appearances. MJ Melendez was entering a crucial season last year and couldn't produce. The Royals are hoping that Massey can avoid Melendez's fate. So far, the 27-year-old is off to a great start this spring. In 15 PA, he's hitting .538 with a .606 wOBA and one home run. What's interesting about Massey's profile is that he isn't hitting the ball all that hard. He doesn't have a barrel, and his xwOBA is only .379, a significant gap from his actual wOBA. That said, what has made Massey successful this spring has been his ability to launch the ball. Not only does he have an average launch angle of 14.5 degrees, but he also has a Sweet Spot% of 70%. That shows that Massey can launch the ball effectively, even if he's not producing consistent premium exit velocity. Launching the ball has always been a strength of Massey's. Even though he struggled to produce decent exit velocity, barrel, or hard-hit rates in 2025, he did rank in the 58th percentile in Sweet Spot%, according to his TJ Stats summary. I think there is still something left in the tank with Massey, and his 2025 may have been more injury-plagued than fans were led to believe. The fact that he's launching the ball effectively this spring and producing some hard hits occasionally with that consistent launch angle could be a sign that he's ready to bounce back to his 2024 numbers. Ryan Bergert: 104 TJ Stuff+ overall Much has been said about the Royals' starting pitching depth this spring. However, things got off to a rough start this spring, with Stephen Kolek initially shut down due to a grade 1+ oblique strain (which should put him out for around five weeks). Thankfully, the depth the Royals have built has come in handy, especially with Bergert, also acquired with Kolek from the Padres at the Trade Deadline last year, off to a stellar start in Cactus League play. In two outings and three innings pitched, he has a 0.00 ERA and 0.67 with two strikeouts and a walk allowed. The results haven't been eye-popping on a strikeout (18.2% K%) or whiff (26.3%) end, but he's demonstrated excellent stuff so far through two starts. His 104 overall TJ Stuff+ leads all Royals pitchers, and five of his six pitches have a TJ Stuff+ mark of 100 or higher. Below is a breakdown of his TJ Stuff+ profile via TJ Stats. Granted, Bergert has struggled a bit finding the strike zone (42.1%) in his first two outings, but his ability to generate chase (40.9% chase rate) and limit hard contact (.194 xwOBACON) has helped him succeed this spring. He may still be on the outside looking in when it comes to a rotation spot (Noah Cameron holds a slight edge for the 5th spot). However, if he keeps showing this stuff in Cactus League play, he'll make it tough for the Royals to keep him off the Opening Day roster. Dennis Colleran: 39.4% CSW% (Called-Strike-Plus-Whiff) CSW can be a good stat for evaluating how effectively a pitcher generates strikes overall (read this piece from Alex Fast on Pitcher List on the creation and breakdown of this relatively new statistic). The better the CSW, the more dependable a pitch can be when it comes to getting strikeouts and putting hitters at a disadvantage. When it comes to the Top 5 Royals pitchers this spring in terms of CSW, Andrew Perez, who pitched in the Independent League last year, leads with a 56.3% CSW (though he has only seen five batters). Cole Ragans is second with a 44.4% CSW, and Kris Bubic is third with a 41.9% CSW. The fourth? Colleran, who has a CSW of 39.4%. Colleran may be one of the most underrated pitching prospects in the Royals system, mostly because he's a reliever. However, he posted a 2.85 ERA, 3.52 FIP, and 27.1% K% across three levels and 66.1 IP last year. In Cactus League play, he's been dominant, not only sporting a near 40% CSW, but a 0.00 ERA, 33.3% K%, and 1.10 FIP in three innings of work. While the sample size is small, his Statcast percentiles have been impressive, as seen below. There's a lot of red in his profile, which is an encouraging trend. He ranks in the 84th percentile in whiff rate, 85th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and 89th percentile in CSW. Lastly, he also ranks in the 97th percentile in fastball velocity, and three of his four pitches have TJ Stuff+ marks of a 100 or higher (his four-seamer is just below that threshold at 99). It's still early in Cactus League play. However, Colleran has a Major League reliever profile and is pitching well enough to earn a midseason call-up at the latest (earlier if one believes in the TINSTAAPP principle).
  7. Here is my breakdown of the most notable Royals Spring Training pitching performances from today's game against the Angels. Thread found below.
  8. On Monday afternoon, the Kansas City Royals via social media officially announced the addition of free-agent outfielder Starling Marte. Reports came out over the weekend that Kansas City had signed Marte to a deal, pending a physical. By the end of the day on Monday, it seems like they were able to get everything cleared and formally introduce their newest outfielder to the Royals fanbase. MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers shared the details of Marte's one-year deal. He will have a $1 million base salary with up to $2 million in incentives, according to Rogers' report on Twitter. With Marte's addition, the Royals' payroll goes up to at least $149 million, possibly $151 million if Marte hits those incentives. That is $13 million higher than their payroll a year ago, according to Roster Resource payroll data. Roster Resource projects Marte as a bat off the bench who will likely be in the lineup against left-handed starting pitchers when their left-handed outfielders need a break. That includes Jac Caglianone and Kyle Isbel, who are projected to play left and center field, respectively. Marte is projected to get around 238 to 252 plate appearances this season, according to most projection systems. Fangraphs' Depth Charts, ZiPS, and The BAT X are the most optimistic, projecting wRC+ marks of 98, 100, and 97, respectively. To make room on the Royals' 40-man roster for Marte, Kansas City also announced that Dairon Blanco would be designated for assignment. Blanco made his MLB debut late at 29-years-old due to visa issues when he came over from Cuba. He didn't make his Minor League debut until 2018, when he was 25. The Cuban-born outfielder started his career in the Athletics organization and came over to the Royals in 2019 in a trade for reliever Jake Diekman. He had solid campaigns as a bench outfielder for the Royals in 2023 and 2024, posting a 102 wRC+ and 96 wRC+ in 138 and 132 plate appearances, respectively. Blanco's main strength as a player was his baserunning ability, as he stole a combined 55 bases from 2023 to 2024. That skill set made him an interesting player worth watching this spring. Unfortunately, the 32-year-old outfielder dealt with an Achilles injury last year and didn't seem quite as explosive in 2025. As a result, he only played in nine games and had just eight plate appearances in the Major Leagues last season. He spent most of the year in Omaha, and while he stole 32 bases, he only hit .253 with a 93 wRC+ in 295 plate appearances with the Storm Chasers. Furthermore, his Statcast percentiles weren't all that impressive either, as seen in his TJ Stats summary from Triple-A a year ago. If Blanco clears waivers, he could return to the Royals as a non-roster player. He could also opt to become a free agent and sign with another club this offseason, with the hope that he could have a better chance of making the Opening Day roster in another organization. Over 171 career Major League games, all with the Royals, Blanco has a career 99 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR, and 59 stolen bases.
  9. On Monday afternoon, the Kansas City Royals via social media officially announced the addition of free-agent outfielder Starling Marte. Reports came out over the weekend that Kansas City had signed Marte to a deal, pending a physical. By the end of the day on Monday, it seems like they were able to get everything cleared and formally introduce their newest outfielder to the Royals fanbase. MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers shared the details of Marte's one-year deal. He will have a $1 million base salary with up to $2 million in incentives, according to Rogers' report on Twitter. With Marte's addition, the Royals' payroll goes up to at least $149 million, possibly $151 million if Marte hits those incentives. That is $13 million higher than their payroll a year ago, according to Roster Resource payroll data. Roster Resource projects Marte as a bat off the bench who will likely be in the lineup against left-handed starting pitchers when their left-handed outfielders need a break. That includes Jac Caglianone and Kyle Isbel, who are projected to play left and center field, respectively. Marte is projected to get around 238 to 252 plate appearances this season, according to most projection systems. Fangraphs' Depth Charts, ZiPS, and The BAT X are the most optimistic, projecting wRC+ marks of 98, 100, and 97, respectively. To make room on the Royals' 40-man roster for Marte, Kansas City also announced that Dairon Blanco would be designated for assignment. Blanco made his MLB debut late at 29-years-old due to visa issues when he came over from Cuba. He didn't make his Minor League debut until 2018, when he was 25. The Cuban-born outfielder started his career in the Athletics organization and came over to the Royals in 2019 in a trade for reliever Jake Diekman. He had solid campaigns as a bench outfielder for the Royals in 2023 and 2024, posting a 102 wRC+ and 96 wRC+ in 138 and 132 plate appearances, respectively. Blanco's main strength as a player was his baserunning ability, as he stole a combined 55 bases from 2023 to 2024. That skill set made him an interesting player worth watching this spring. Unfortunately, the 32-year-old outfielder dealt with an Achilles injury last year and didn't seem quite as explosive in 2025. As a result, he only played in nine games and had just eight plate appearances in the Major Leagues last season. He spent most of the year in Omaha, and while he stole 32 bases, he only hit .253 with a 93 wRC+ in 295 plate appearances with the Storm Chasers. Furthermore, his Statcast percentiles weren't all that impressive either, as seen in his TJ Stats summary from Triple-A a year ago. If Blanco clears waivers, he could return to the Royals as a non-roster player. He could also opt to become a free agent and sign with another club this offseason, with the hope that he could have a better chance of making the Opening Day roster in another organization. Over 171 career Major League games, all with the Royals, Blanco has a career 99 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR, and 59 stolen bases. View full rumor
  10. That has definitely been a challenge for him. I think looking at his release point data will be key for him this spring. Here's a look at what he did in his last outing, release point-wise. It's a small sample, but you can see some differences between similar pitches, suggesting a lack of consistency in throwing mechanics. How Sweeney and McFerran help him keep consistent mechanics and release points will determine whether he is a sleeper or serves as a Triple-A reliever in 2026.
  11. Image courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images A big key for the Royals last year was the improvement in the bullpen from 2024 to 2025. While the bullpen improved after the Trade Deadline acquisition of Lucas Erceg, it was an inconsistent group in 2024, and the metrics proved it. Royals relievers ranked 20th in bullpen ERA (4.13), 28th in K/9 (8.06), 23rd in K/BB ratio (2.36), and 26th in SIERA (4.02). It's honestly amazing that the Royals won 86 games and made the playoffs with a bullpen that mediocre. In 2025, thanks to the acquisition of Carlos Estevez and the improvement of some other relievers, Kansas City's bullpen showed some growth in terms of results. They ranked 7th in bullpen ERA (3.63), 19th in K-BB ratio (2.46), and 21st in SIERA (3.99). However, the only blemish for this bullpen was the lack of strikeouts, as they actually ranked worse in K/9 with a 7.76 mark (which ranked 29th). Thus, Royals GM JJ Picollo made it a priority to acquire relievers who could get strikeouts and whiffs. Trades for Philadelphia's Matt Strahm and Milwaukee's Nick Mears confirmed that priority. That said, one intriguing Minor League signing this spring has been Helcris Olivarez, who pitched in the San Francisco Giants organization a season ago. In four outings and four IP, Olivarez has a 2.25 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 3.87 FIP, and 3.00 K/BB ratio. The strikeouts haven't been great, as he has a 16.7% K% so far in Cactus League play. That said, he's limited the walks (5.6% BB%), something that has plagued him in the past in the Minor Leagues. For context, in 37 appearances in Double-A and Triple-A combined last year, he had a 24.6% BB% and 1.7% K-BB%. Safe to say, those kinds of numbers aren't going to cut it in the Majors. However, what has been different with Olivarez so far this spring? What kind of role could Olivarez have in the Royals' bullpen in 2026? What are some recent Royals bullpen success stories that are similar to Olivarez? Let's break down those questions using Fangraphs and TJ Stats data and applications. Olivarez's Four-Seamer and Curve Have Been Key This Spring The 25-year-old Dominican lefty hasn't generated a ton of strikeouts this spring, with only three strikeouts so far. That said, he's producing a decent chase and whiff, while minimizing hard contact, as illustrated by his reasonable xwOBACON. Those metrics can be seen via his TJ Stats summary of his performance this spring below. When it comes to TJ Stuff+, there's a lot to be encouraged about with Olivarez's profile. While his overall TJ Stuff+ is 100 and he has only one pitch with a TJ Stuff+ over 100 (his curve, which has a 106 mark), all four of his offerings have pitching grades over 50. That shows that he has a balanced profile, and he does have one elite pitch in his curveball, which has a pitching grade of 64 and a whiff rate of 66.7%. Olivarez hasn't generated an outstanding chase rate (28.6%), and his whiff rate has been below average (21.4%). That said, his four-seamer chase has been solid (31.6%), and he's been limiting hard contact on his fastball, with his four-seamer posting a .362 xwOBACON and his sinker posting a .107 xwOBACON. I believe a reason for the lower chase and whiff rates is due to his erratic control, as he has a 44.4% zone rate so far this spring. Below is Olivarez's pitch chart from yesterday's Cactus League game. Notice that it was feast or famine for him when it came to locating his pitches against the Rockies on Saturday. Once Olivarez is able to find the strike zone more this spring, the more effective his chase and whiff rates will be. His most thrown pitch this spring has been his four-seamer, and it's typically been a good pitch for him in terms of TJ Stuff+ and whiff profiles. Here's a look at his TJ Stats summary from last year in Triple-A Sacramento, and take a look at the data on the four-seamer from a season ago. The four-seamer not only averaged 97.3 MPH, but it also had a 99 TJ Stuff+, 52 grade, 36.5% whiff rate, and .248 xwOBACON. So, what can we say about that data on the fastball from last season? Yes, it is. Conversely, it had a 39.8% zone rate and 18.4% chase rate. Considering he threw the pitch 47.8% of the time, that erratic control of the four-seamer probably led to his 24.4% BB% in Sacramento. What's interesting about Olivarez's four-seamer is that it doesn't sport the characteristics of a normal four-seam fastball. It only had a 13.1 iVB and an 11.7 HB. Thus, it's more of a horizontal moving pitch with more armside movement than typical for a four-seamer. One can see that in the pitch below from his time in Double-A Portland (when he was in the Red Sox organization), which hovers on the line being a sinker (though I don't have the exact metrics of the pitch). Despite that unique profile, Olivarez located it up, which one would do with the typical four-seamer. Based on the TJ Stats heatmap data, the approach worked for Olivarez in Sacramento last season. He produced a 33.3% CSW, 21.7% whiff rate, and .230 xwOBACON against lefties and a 29.8% CSW, 41.1% whiff rate, and .258 xwOBACON against righties. Thus, his four-seamer was a better strike-generating pitch against lefties but a better swing-and-miss pitch against righties last year in Triple-A. Let's see how that heatmap data looks so far this spring. The location hasn't been quite as sharp for Olivarez, based on his heatmap. His four-seamer has been located more in the middle of the plate than it was a season ago, when it was located up and armside against both lefties and righties. Against lefties, whom he has a 55.6% four-seamer usage against, it's produced similar trends with a 26.7% CSW and 0.0% whiff, but .269 xwOBACON. Against righties, it's been even better when it comes to generating strikes (36.8% CSW) and whiffs (42.9%), but it's been hit a lot harder, as illustrated by a .487 xwOBACON. The four-seamer will be key for Olivarez this spring because it can effectively set up his curve, which may be his best put-away pitch. Here's a look at the TJ Stats heatmap data this spring on his primary breaking offering, especially against lefties. He's only thrown it 22.2% of the time against lefties (and 5.6% against righties). However, against lefties, it's been a stellar offering with a 33.3% CSW, 40% O-Swing (chase), and 66.7% whiff. He hasn't located it all that well either, with the curve being located more up and in than typical. Here's a look at his curveball heatmap data from 2025 with the Triple-A Rivercats. Olivarez located the curve primarily away and glove-side against lefties and righties last year. It was far more effective against righties with a 28% CSW, 57.1% whiff, and .120 xwOBACON. Command of the pitch is probably the reason for that difference, as his curve against righties was located more in the lower zone 7 portion of the strike zone, while against lefties, it was more up in zone 6. The curve breaking hard and in on hitters foot is always going to lead to more whiffs. It would be nice to see Olivarez get to commanding that curveball back in that area of the strikezone this spring in Cactus League play, but he would likely need his four-seam command to improve first so he can get in more ideal counts to utilize his effective curveball. What Kind of Role Can Olivarez Play in the Bullpen? The Royals lack lefty depth on the 40-man roster. The only lefties who could pitch out of the bullpen are Strahm, Daniel Lynch IV, and Bailey Falter. That said, Falter is more of a starter and only moved to the bullpen after struggling initially with the Royals last season. Lynch has looked solid this spring, with his stuff playing more up than it did a season ago, as illustrated by his TJ Stats summary in Cactus League play. Thus, Strahm and Lynch could probably hold things down in the bullpen from a lefty perspective. However, as for Falter? I'm not quite as sure, though the TJ Stuff+, his pitch extension, and xwOBACON have been fine so far in Spring Training, as illustrated below. It would be nice for the Royals to get one more lefty in the bullpen, especially with Angel Zerpa going to Milwaukee this offseason (in the Mears and Isaac Collins trade). Strahm is a workhorse, but he is another year older. Lynch IV has produced good numbers so far, but his 4.76 FIP was much higher than his 3.06 ERA last year. Thus, the former 34th overall pick of the 2018 MLB Draft could be due for regression in 2026. Olivarez is far from dependable, considering his track record. That said, he's a lefty with velocity and swing-and-miss stuff who could give the Royals the punch from the left side they desperately need in 2026, as long as he is able to harness the control a bit better. What Are Some Similar Situations to Olivarez? I don't think Olivarez will make the Opening Day roster. However, he still has a Minor League option, and he's still under-the-radar, so I don't think there will be a tremendous market for him to opt out (he likely wouldn't make another club's Opening Day roster either). However, while he will start the year in Triple-A Omaha, he has a chance to be a Royals reliever who started the year in the Minors but later became a key contributor to the Royals bullpen. Two examples of that archetype are Sam Long in 2024 and Taylor Clarke last year. Neither made the Royals' Opening Day roster that season. However, they ended up being key relievers for Kansas City when they got called up. Here's a look at what Long did in 2024. In 42.2 IP, Long posted a 3.16 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with a 15.3% K-BB%. He ended up being the Royals' most dependable left-handed reliever that season, with some key innings in the postseason. Like Olivarez, Long has control issues, as evidenced by his 45.7% zone rate. However, he generated strong chase (30.2%) and whiff rates (27.5%), and his four-seamer was his most effective pitch with a 55 grade. Long fell apart a bit in 2025, but the Royals would take a similar campaign from Olivarez in 2026. Now, let's take a look at Clarke, who returned to the Royals after being traded away after the 2023 season. Clarke didn't have a great four-seamer (97 TJ Stuff+ and 50 grade), but his slider was elite with a 108 TJ Stuff+ and 59 grade. The breaking offering that he threw 39.7% of the time also had a 50.9% zone rate, a 33.1% chase-and-whiff rate, and a .312 xwOBACON. As a result, in 55.1 IP, he posted a 3.25 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 3.97 FIP, and 17% K-BB%. It may be unfair to compare Olivarez to either Long or Clarke, mainly because Olivarez's control issues are way worse than those of the two former Kansas City relievers. However, both are examples of pitchers who weren't taken seriously by fans in the offseason, had good Spring Training campaigns, started in the Minors, and parlayed that success into strong Major League campaigns. Success may look a little different for Olivarez in 2026. However, if the stuff continues and if he can continue to hone his command and control with each and every outing, both in Spring Training and in the Minor Leagues to begin the year, then it wouldn't be surprising to see Olivarez turn into some kind of dark-horse impact reliever for the Royals by mid-season. Hopefully, if that happens, he can have a longer, more successful tenure in Kansas City than Long or Clarke. View full article
  12. A big key for the Royals last year was the improvement in the bullpen from 2024 to 2025. While the bullpen improved after the Trade Deadline acquisition of Lucas Erceg, it was an inconsistent group in 2024, and the metrics proved it. Royals relievers ranked 20th in bullpen ERA (4.13), 28th in K/9 (8.06), 23rd in K/BB ratio (2.36), and 26th in SIERA (4.02). It's honestly amazing that the Royals won 86 games and made the playoffs with a bullpen that mediocre. In 2025, thanks to the acquisition of Carlos Estevez and the improvement of some other relievers, Kansas City's bullpen showed some growth in terms of results. They ranked 7th in bullpen ERA (3.63), 19th in K-BB ratio (2.46), and 21st in SIERA (3.99). However, the only blemish for this bullpen was the lack of strikeouts, as they actually ranked worse in K/9 with a 7.76 mark (which ranked 29th). Thus, Royals GM JJ Picollo made it a priority to acquire relievers who could get strikeouts and whiffs. Trades for Philadelphia's Matt Strahm and Milwaukee's Nick Mears confirmed that priority. That said, one intriguing Minor League signing this spring has been Helcris Olivarez, who pitched in the San Francisco Giants organization a season ago. In four outings and four IP, Olivarez has a 2.25 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 3.87 FIP, and 3.00 K/BB ratio. The strikeouts haven't been great, as he has a 16.7% K% so far in Cactus League play. That said, he's limited the walks (5.6% BB%), something that has plagued him in the past in the Minor Leagues. For context, in 37 appearances in Double-A and Triple-A combined last year, he had a 24.6% BB% and 1.7% K-BB%. Safe to say, those kinds of numbers aren't going to cut it in the Majors. However, what has been different with Olivarez so far this spring? What kind of role could Olivarez have in the Royals' bullpen in 2026? What are some recent Royals bullpen success stories that are similar to Olivarez? Let's break down those questions using Fangraphs and TJ Stats data and applications. Olivarez's Four-Seamer and Curve Have Been Key This Spring The 25-year-old Dominican lefty hasn't generated a ton of strikeouts this spring, with only three strikeouts so far. That said, he's producing a decent chase and whiff, while minimizing hard contact, as illustrated by his reasonable xwOBACON. Those metrics can be seen via his TJ Stats summary of his performance this spring below. When it comes to TJ Stuff+, there's a lot to be encouraged about with Olivarez's profile. While his overall TJ Stuff+ is 100 and he has only one pitch with a TJ Stuff+ over 100 (his curve, which has a 106 mark), all four of his offerings have pitching grades over 50. That shows that he has a balanced profile, and he does have one elite pitch in his curveball, which has a pitching grade of 64 and a whiff rate of 66.7%. Olivarez hasn't generated an outstanding chase rate (28.6%), and his whiff rate has been below average (21.4%). That said, his four-seamer chase has been solid (31.6%), and he's been limiting hard contact on his fastball, with his four-seamer posting a .362 xwOBACON and his sinker posting a .107 xwOBACON. I believe a reason for the lower chase and whiff rates is due to his erratic control, as he has a 44.4% zone rate so far this spring. Below is Olivarez's pitch chart from yesterday's Cactus League game. Notice that it was feast or famine for him when it came to locating his pitches against the Rockies on Saturday. Once Olivarez is able to find the strike zone more this spring, the more effective his chase and whiff rates will be. His most thrown pitch this spring has been his four-seamer, and it's typically been a good pitch for him in terms of TJ Stuff+ and whiff profiles. Here's a look at his TJ Stats summary from last year in Triple-A Sacramento, and take a look at the data on the four-seamer from a season ago. The four-seamer not only averaged 97.3 MPH, but it also had a 99 TJ Stuff+, 52 grade, 36.5% whiff rate, and .248 xwOBACON. So, what can we say about that data on the fastball from last season? Yes, it is. Conversely, it had a 39.8% zone rate and 18.4% chase rate. Considering he threw the pitch 47.8% of the time, that erratic control of the four-seamer probably led to his 24.4% BB% in Sacramento. What's interesting about Olivarez's four-seamer is that it doesn't sport the characteristics of a normal four-seam fastball. It only had a 13.1 iVB and an 11.7 HB. Thus, it's more of a horizontal moving pitch with more armside movement than typical for a four-seamer. One can see that in the pitch below from his time in Double-A Portland (when he was in the Red Sox organization), which hovers on the line being a sinker (though I don't have the exact metrics of the pitch). Despite that unique profile, Olivarez located it up, which one would do with the typical four-seamer. Based on the TJ Stats heatmap data, the approach worked for Olivarez in Sacramento last season. He produced a 33.3% CSW, 21.7% whiff rate, and .230 xwOBACON against lefties and a 29.8% CSW, 41.1% whiff rate, and .258 xwOBACON against righties. Thus, his four-seamer was a better strike-generating pitch against lefties but a better swing-and-miss pitch against righties last year in Triple-A. Let's see how that heatmap data looks so far this spring. The location hasn't been quite as sharp for Olivarez, based on his heatmap. His four-seamer has been located more in the middle of the plate than it was a season ago, when it was located up and armside against both lefties and righties. Against lefties, whom he has a 55.6% four-seamer usage against, it's produced similar trends with a 26.7% CSW and 0.0% whiff, but .269 xwOBACON. Against righties, it's been even better when it comes to generating strikes (36.8% CSW) and whiffs (42.9%), but it's been hit a lot harder, as illustrated by a .487 xwOBACON. The four-seamer will be key for Olivarez this spring because it can effectively set up his curve, which may be his best put-away pitch. Here's a look at the TJ Stats heatmap data this spring on his primary breaking offering, especially against lefties. He's only thrown it 22.2% of the time against lefties (and 5.6% against righties). However, against lefties, it's been a stellar offering with a 33.3% CSW, 40% O-Swing (chase), and 66.7% whiff. He hasn't located it all that well either, with the curve being located more up and in than typical. Here's a look at his curveball heatmap data from 2025 with the Triple-A Rivercats. Olivarez located the curve primarily away and glove-side against lefties and righties last year. It was far more effective against righties with a 28% CSW, 57.1% whiff, and .120 xwOBACON. Command of the pitch is probably the reason for that difference, as his curve against righties was located more in the lower zone 7 portion of the strike zone, while against lefties, it was more up in zone 6. The curve breaking hard and in on hitters foot is always going to lead to more whiffs. It would be nice to see Olivarez get to commanding that curveball back in that area of the strikezone this spring in Cactus League play, but he would likely need his four-seam command to improve first so he can get in more ideal counts to utilize his effective curveball. What Kind of Role Can Olivarez Play in the Bullpen? The Royals lack lefty depth on the 40-man roster. The only lefties who could pitch out of the bullpen are Strahm, Daniel Lynch IV, and Bailey Falter. That said, Falter is more of a starter and only moved to the bullpen after struggling initially with the Royals last season. Lynch has looked solid this spring, with his stuff playing more up than it did a season ago, as illustrated by his TJ Stats summary in Cactus League play. Thus, Strahm and Lynch could probably hold things down in the bullpen from a lefty perspective. However, as for Falter? I'm not quite as sure, though the TJ Stuff+, his pitch extension, and xwOBACON have been fine so far in Spring Training, as illustrated below. It would be nice for the Royals to get one more lefty in the bullpen, especially with Angel Zerpa going to Milwaukee this offseason (in the Mears and Isaac Collins trade). Strahm is a workhorse, but he is another year older. Lynch IV has produced good numbers so far, but his 4.76 FIP was much higher than his 3.06 ERA last year. Thus, the former 34th overall pick of the 2018 MLB Draft could be due for regression in 2026. Olivarez is far from dependable, considering his track record. That said, he's a lefty with velocity and swing-and-miss stuff who could give the Royals the punch from the left side they desperately need in 2026, as long as he is able to harness the control a bit better. What Are Some Similar Situations to Olivarez? I don't think Olivarez will make the Opening Day roster. However, he still has a Minor League option, and he's still under-the-radar, so I don't think there will be a tremendous market for him to opt out (he likely wouldn't make another club's Opening Day roster either). However, while he will start the year in Triple-A Omaha, he has a chance to be a Royals reliever who started the year in the Minors but later became a key contributor to the Royals bullpen. Two examples of that archetype are Sam Long in 2024 and Taylor Clarke last year. Neither made the Royals' Opening Day roster that season. However, they ended up being key relievers for Kansas City when they got called up. Here's a look at what Long did in 2024. In 42.2 IP, Long posted a 3.16 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with a 15.3% K-BB%. He ended up being the Royals' most dependable left-handed reliever that season, with some key innings in the postseason. Like Olivarez, Long has control issues, as evidenced by his 45.7% zone rate. However, he generated strong chase (30.2%) and whiff rates (27.5%), and his four-seamer was his most effective pitch with a 55 grade. Long fell apart a bit in 2025, but the Royals would take a similar campaign from Olivarez in 2026. Now, let's take a look at Clarke, who returned to the Royals after being traded away after the 2023 season. Clarke didn't have a great four-seamer (97 TJ Stuff+ and 50 grade), but his slider was elite with a 108 TJ Stuff+ and 59 grade. The breaking offering that he threw 39.7% of the time also had a 50.9% zone rate, a 33.1% chase-and-whiff rate, and a .312 xwOBACON. As a result, in 55.1 IP, he posted a 3.25 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 3.97 FIP, and 17% K-BB%. It may be unfair to compare Olivarez to either Long or Clarke, mainly because Olivarez's control issues are way worse than those of the two former Kansas City relievers. However, both are examples of pitchers who weren't taken seriously by fans in the offseason, had good Spring Training campaigns, started in the Minors, and parlayed that success into strong Major League campaigns. Success may look a little different for Olivarez in 2026. However, if the stuff continues and if he can continue to hone his command and control with each and every outing, both in Spring Training and in the Minor Leagues to begin the year, then it wouldn't be surprising to see Olivarez turn into some kind of dark-horse impact reliever for the Royals by mid-season. Hopefully, if that happens, he can have a longer, more successful tenure in Kansas City than Long or Clarke.
  13. Been doing these on Twitter and Bluesky. Figure I will also share these here for those who don't follow on either (though I will primarily share my Bluesky posts on the forums). Subscribe to TJ Stats if you haven't already. Great stuff, and the website has gone through a great revamp.
  14. On Sunday, after the Royals' 3-1 win over the Milwaukee Brewers, manager Matt Quatraro announced that Luinder Avila will be joining Team Venezuela for the upcoming World Baseball Classic. Avila will be joining Team Venezuela along with Royals teammates Salvador Perez and Maikel Garcia, who were announced to the roster earlier in the offseason. In addition to those three, Bobby Witt Jr. and Michael Wacha will be joining Team USA; Vinnie Pasquantino and Jac Caglianone will be joining Team Italy; Seth Lugo will be starting for Team Puerto Rico; and Carlos Estevez will be pitching for Team Dominican Republic. Michael Coyle had a breakdown of all participants in the World Baseball Classic on February 5th here at Royals Keep. Avila ranks 13th on our Top 20 preseason Royals prospects list. He had a strong MLB debut, posting a 1.29 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 13 appearances with the Royals. He also posted a 28.6% K% and had a 2.09 xERA in his first stint against MLB competition. In Royals camp, he's been in competition for not just a roster spot, but perhaps a spot in the Royals' rotation. Quatraro mentioned in a press conference in Spring Training that Avila had "frontline starter" potential. Prior to his call-up, the 24-year-old primarily pitched as a starter in the Minor Leagues, posting a 5.23 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 53.1 IP with the Storm Chasers last season. However, he still posted a 28% K%, a 17.7% K-BB%, and a 4.38 FIP, indicating he was better in Omaha than his ERA suggested. This spring, Avila has been off to a strong start in Cactus League play. In 4.0 IP, he has a 2.25 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. His K% and K-BB% are a little low at 21.1% and 10.5%, respectively. That said, his TJ Stuff+, chase, and whiff metrics have still been strong, as seen below via his TJ Stats summary. Avila has a 100 overall TJ Stuff+ but has four pitches with marks of 100 or higher and grades of 54 or higher. His curveball has been his best pitch this spring on a TJ Stuff+ end, with a 59 grade, but it has only generated a 20% whiff and chase rate. On the flip side, his sinker is his worst pitch in terms of TJ Stuff+ (93 and 45 grade), but it's been his best offering in terms of generating chases (66.7%) and whiffs (53.8%). His slider and changeup have shown promise, but he's only thrown them one time each this spring. The Venezuelan righty will likely pitch out of the bullpen for Team Venezuela in the WBC. Carlos Hernandez was the last Royals pitcher to pitch for Team Venezuela in 2023 and had a solid showing. In 2.2 IP, he struck out five batters and allowed no runs, no walks, and only three hits. Hernandez's solid performance in the WBC helped him get off to a strong start in 2023, as he posted a 3.83 ERA, a 2.65 FIP, a 28.8% K%, and 22% K-BB% in 44.2 IP in the first half. His strong first half prompted the Royals to trade away established closer Scott Barlow to San Diego at the Trade Deadline. Unfortunately, Hernandez regressed sharply in the second half, posting a 7.82 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 7.16 FIP, 21.1% K%, and 5.7% K-BB% in 25.1 IP. Let's hope that Avila not only gets valuable experience competing in the WBC but also has a solid performance that can be parlayed into another step forward in pitching development in 2026. Avila has a lot more upside than Hernandez, and he will be needed, especially with Stephen Kolek straining his oblique and likely starting the season on the 15-Day IL. The World Baseball Classic kicks off with pool play on Thursday, March 5th, and will conclude on March 17th. Venezuela is in Pool D with the Dominican Republic, Israel, Nicaragua, and the Netherlands. More information about the World Baseball Classic can be found on its website. View full rumor
  15. On Sunday, after the Royals' 3-1 win over the Milwaukee Brewers, manager Matt Quatraro announced that Luinder Avila will be joining Team Venezuela for the upcoming World Baseball Classic. Avila will be joining Team Venezuela along with Royals teammates Salvador Perez and Maikel Garcia, who were announced to the roster earlier in the offseason. In addition to those three, Bobby Witt Jr. and Michael Wacha will be joining Team USA; Vinnie Pasquantino and Jac Caglianone will be joining Team Italy; Seth Lugo will be starting for Team Puerto Rico; and Carlos Estevez will be pitching for Team Dominican Republic. Michael Coyle had a breakdown of all participants in the World Baseball Classic on February 5th here at Royals Keep. Avila ranks 13th on our Top 20 preseason Royals prospects list. He had a strong MLB debut, posting a 1.29 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 13 appearances with the Royals. He also posted a 28.6% K% and had a 2.09 xERA in his first stint against MLB competition. In Royals camp, he's been in competition for not just a roster spot, but perhaps a spot in the Royals' rotation. Quatraro mentioned in a press conference in Spring Training that Avila had "frontline starter" potential. Prior to his call-up, the 24-year-old primarily pitched as a starter in the Minor Leagues, posting a 5.23 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 53.1 IP with the Storm Chasers last season. However, he still posted a 28% K%, a 17.7% K-BB%, and a 4.38 FIP, indicating he was better in Omaha than his ERA suggested. This spring, Avila has been off to a strong start in Cactus League play. In 4.0 IP, he has a 2.25 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. His K% and K-BB% are a little low at 21.1% and 10.5%, respectively. That said, his TJ Stuff+, chase, and whiff metrics have still been strong, as seen below via his TJ Stats summary. Avila has a 100 overall TJ Stuff+ but has four pitches with marks of 100 or higher and grades of 54 or higher. His curveball has been his best pitch this spring on a TJ Stuff+ end, with a 59 grade, but it has only generated a 20% whiff and chase rate. On the flip side, his sinker is his worst pitch in terms of TJ Stuff+ (93 and 45 grade), but it's been his best offering in terms of generating chases (66.7%) and whiffs (53.8%). His slider and changeup have shown promise, but he's only thrown them one time each this spring. The Venezuelan righty will likely pitch out of the bullpen for Team Venezuela in the WBC. Carlos Hernandez was the last Royals pitcher to pitch for Team Venezuela in 2023 and had a solid showing. In 2.2 IP, he struck out five batters and allowed no runs, no walks, and only three hits. Hernandez's solid performance in the WBC helped him get off to a strong start in 2023, as he posted a 3.83 ERA, a 2.65 FIP, a 28.8% K%, and 22% K-BB% in 44.2 IP in the first half. His strong first half prompted the Royals to trade away established closer Scott Barlow to San Diego at the Trade Deadline. Unfortunately, Hernandez regressed sharply in the second half, posting a 7.82 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 7.16 FIP, 21.1% K%, and 5.7% K-BB% in 25.1 IP. Let's hope that Avila not only gets valuable experience competing in the WBC but also has a solid performance that can be parlayed into another step forward in pitching development in 2026. Avila has a lot more upside than Hernandez, and he will be needed, especially with Stephen Kolek straining his oblique and likely starting the season on the 15-Day IL. The World Baseball Classic kicks off with pool play on Thursday, March 5th, and will conclude on March 17th. Venezuela is in Pool D with the Dominican Republic, Israel, Nicaragua, and the Netherlands. More information about the World Baseball Classic can be found on its website.
  16. Agreed. I think it's ironic that many Royals fans are lamenting this move as if there's not a "spot" for Marte. Marte last year would've been a tremendous upgrade over the rotating OF group you mentioned, and he could've been the difference in the Royals making the postseason, honestly. As you said, not every player is going to play 162, and you need depth that can handle their own. Marte fits that mold, and at the very least, the talent level on the Royals' 26-man roster has raised a bit, regardless of the role that Marte will play in 2026.
  17. Image courtesy of Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images On Saturday afternoon, MLB.com's Mark Feinsand reported that the Kansas City Royals had agreed to a deal with outfielder Starling Marte, pending a physical. Yancen Pujols, via El Extra Base's Daniel Alvarez-Montes, reported early this morning that Marte and the Royals had progressed in talks and were close to signing a deal to bring him to Kansas City. The Royals have shown interest in Marte before. Last year, a possible deal at the Winter Meetings would've brought Marte to Kansas City in exchange for reliever Hunter Harvey. However, the deal couldn't be finalized. Marte was also a free agent this winter, and there were rumblings that he fit what the Royals were looking for in the outfield for 2026. Marte has a career 35.9 fWAR and is a two-time All-Star and Gold Glove award winner. He's been beset by injuries over the past few years, as he hasn't had more than 370 plate appearances in a season since 2022, his first season with the Mets. Last season, in 329 plate appearances, he slashed .270/.335/.410 with a .326 wOBA, 112 wRC+, and 0.7 fWAR. He also had nine home runs, 37 runs scored, 34 RBI, and seven stolen bases. In terms of his Statcast percentiles, he showed a decent 90th percentile exit velocity and ranked in the 52nd percentile in strikeout rate. However, he is definitely a player in the later stages of his career, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary from 2025 below. Despite this declining skill set, it's likely that Marte will be a platoon bat who will rotate among all three outfield positions with Isaac Collins, Kyle Isbel, and Jac Caglianone. MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers reported that Marte, who is coming to Kansas City on a one-year deal, will be utilized mostly as a depth piece off the bench, but he could earn more playing time if he produces like he did last year or in 2024 (103 wRC+). It sounds like Marte will be receiving a Major League deal, which means that the Royals will likely DFA someone on the 40-man roster to make room. Outfielders Dairon Blanco and Drew Waters seem like prime candidates, especially Waters, who is out of Minor League options and posted a 66 wRC+ in 219 plate appearances last season. View full article
  18. On Saturday afternoon, MLB.com's Mark Feinsand reported that the Kansas City Royals had agreed to a deal with outfielder Starling Marte, pending a physical. Yancen Pujols, via El Extra Base's Daniel Alvarez-Montes, reported early this morning that Marte and the Royals had progressed in talks and were close to signing a deal to bring him to Kansas City. The Royals have shown interest in Marte before. Last year, a possible deal at the Winter Meetings would've brought Marte to Kansas City in exchange for reliever Hunter Harvey. However, the deal couldn't be finalized. Marte was also a free agent this winter, and there were rumblings that he fit what the Royals were looking for in the outfield for 2026. Marte has a career 35.9 fWAR and is a two-time All-Star and Gold Glove award winner. He's been beset by injuries over the past few years, as he hasn't had more than 370 plate appearances in a season since 2022, his first season with the Mets. Last season, in 329 plate appearances, he slashed .270/.335/.410 with a .326 wOBA, 112 wRC+, and 0.7 fWAR. He also had nine home runs, 37 runs scored, 34 RBI, and seven stolen bases. In terms of his Statcast percentiles, he showed a decent 90th percentile exit velocity and ranked in the 52nd percentile in strikeout rate. However, he is definitely a player in the later stages of his career, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary from 2025 below. Despite this declining skill set, it's likely that Marte will be a platoon bat who will rotate among all three outfield positions with Isaac Collins, Kyle Isbel, and Jac Caglianone. MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers reported that Marte, who is coming to Kansas City on a one-year deal, will be utilized mostly as a depth piece off the bench, but he could earn more playing time if he produces like he did last year or in 2024 (103 wRC+). It sounds like Marte will be receiving a Major League deal, which means that the Royals will likely DFA someone on the 40-man roster to make room. Outfielders Dairon Blanco and Drew Waters seem like prime candidates, especially Waters, who is out of Minor League options and posted a 66 wRC+ in 219 plate appearances last season.
  19. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images The Royals are 3-4 right now after roughly one week of Cactus League play. They earned their third win of the year in a wild one on Friday afternoon against the Sacramento Athletics, winning 7-6 after trailing in the seventh inning. The Royals have seen some familiar hitters get off to strong starts in Spring Training. Bobby Witt Jr. leads the Royals in hits with six and hit his first home run of the spring today against the Athletics, a three-run blast. Jac Caglianone is also off to a strong start this spring after a rough rookie campaign. He's hitting .417 with a 1.212 OPS and has launched some tanks in Arizona. That included a double on Thursday against the Diamondbacks that had an exit velocity of 120.2 MPH. Lastly, Maikel Garcia and Michael Massey have gotten off to strong starts with five hits apiece. Garcia has an .814 OPS, and Massey has a 1.445 OPS. Garcia is trying to prove that his breakout in 2025 wasn't a fluke, while Massey is looking to show Royals fans that he can be a long-term solution in Kansas City as a utility player who can rotate between second base and left field. While the familiar position players are off to strong starts, there are some unfamiliar ones, specifically non-roster invitees, who are also doing well at the plate in Cactus League play. Thus, let's take a look at three NRI Royals hitters who are not just putting up strong performances but are also making their case for roster spots on Opening Day (which is one month away). Josh Rojas, 2B/3B Rojas played for the White Sox last year and had a brutal season, which explains why he was not given a Major League deal this offseason, even though he has a career 5.5 fWAR in 639 career Major League games. In 211 plate appearances with the White Sox, Rojas hit .180 with a .232 wOBA, a 44 wRC+, and -1.3 fWAR, according to Fangraphs. His fWAR was the worst mark of his career and his worst mark since 2020 with the Diamondbacks, when he posted a -0.3 fWAR in 17 games. His chances of making the roster initially seemed long, especially with utility bench options such as Nick Loftin and Tyler Tolbert also competing for roster spots this spring. However, Rojas has gotten off to a hot start at the plate, showing he may deserve a shot on the Opening Day roster. In 10 at-bats, the 31-year-old utility infielder has four hits, two home runs, and six RBI. His latest home run came on February 24th against the Cincinnati Reds. The former 26th-round draft pick has long been known for his glove over his bat. His defense at second has traditionally been better than his defense at third. He has a +10 career OAA at the keystone, but a -8 career OAA at the hot corner. That said, the Royals seem set at third base with Garcia. They are less solidified with Massey and Jonathan India, who both struggled in 2025. Furthermore, given Massey's injury history, Rojas could be a player who seamlessly fills in for him, though he doesn't exactly have Massey's defensive versatility. The University of Hawaii product has only 729 innings in the outfield. On a positive note, he has a +1 OAA there, so if the bat continues, the Royals may be prompted to give Rojas more time in the outfield to give him more versatility off the bench. Kevin Newman, 2B/SS The Royals acquired Newman early in the offseason, and he seemed like an intriguing pickup who could give Kansas City not only positional flexibility but a veteran presence. In fact, his acquisition could be a reason why the Royals opted not to bring back Adam Frazier for the 2026 season. In 10 at-bats this spring, the 32-year-old infielder has three hits and is hitting .300 with an .864 OPS. He has one walk and two strikeouts, and he has hit two doubles, showing that he has the batted-ball profile to take advantage of Kauffman Stadium's spacious grounds. Against Arizona pitcher Kade Strowd, Newman laced a double down the line and showed excellent speed to get to second base standing up. Newman had an underwhelming 2025 season with the Angels, posting a .202 average, 27 wRC+, and -0.7 fWAR in 116 plate appearances. However, he played with the Diamondbacks in 2024 and fared much better over a larger sample. In 111 games and 311 plate appearances that season, he hit .278 with an 89 wRC+ and 1.4 fWAR. He also hit three home runs, scored 41 runs, stole eight bases, and provided solid defense, as evidenced by his +7 OAA at shortstop and second base combined. Loftin has gotten off to a slow start this spring. He is currently hitting .167 with a .481 OPS in 12 at-bats. While he did have a two-run double today, if the former Baylor product continues to perform poorly at the plate, the Royals may opt for Newman over Loftin for the right-handed utility role off the bench to start the 2026 season. Connor Kaiser, 2B When the Royals signed him to a Minor League deal, Kaiser struck me as more of an everyday player for the Omaha Storm Chasers than a serious candidate to make the Major League Opening Day roster. That said, the former Blue Valley West High School product is showing that he may be a call-up at some point in 2026, even if he begins the year in Omaha. In eight at-bats, the 29-year-old second baseman has three hits, including two doubles. He is hitting .375 with a 1.000 OPS, and he has one RBI to boot. It's a small sample, and Kaiser has mostly done this while coming off the bench (meaning he isn't facing top-flight pitching). Nonetheless, he's producing in the limited at-bats that he's getting. Kaiser will likely receive a lot more soon when Witt and Garcia leave camp to report for the World Baseball Classic. The Vanderbility product doesn't have an extensive track record in Major League. He has 23 career MLB plate appearances and has a career .091 average, -29 wrC+, and -0.2 fWAR. He also strikes out a bit too much, as he has a 30.4% career K rate in the Majors and had a 27.5% K rate with Reno, Arizona's Triple-A club, last season. Still, when he gets a hold of the ball, Kaiser can find the gaps, much like Newman, as illustrated in this hit below with the Diamondbacks last season (his first career MLB hit). With some modifications from the Royals' hitting development team, it's possible that Kaiser could morph into a Cam Devanney of sorts, who broke out last season in Triple-A Omaha. While Devanney didn't contribute at all to the Major League roster, he was utilized as capital in a trade to Pittsburgh for Frazier at the All-Star Break. Maybe Frazier can be acquired again by the Royals midseason, with Kaiser as the trade asset this time around. View full article
  20. The Royals are 3-4 right now after roughly one week of Cactus League play. They earned their third win of the year in a wild one on Friday afternoon against the Sacramento Athletics, winning 7-6 after trailing in the seventh inning. The Royals have seen some familiar hitters get off to strong starts in Spring Training. Bobby Witt Jr. leads the Royals in hits with six and hit his first home run of the spring today against the Athletics, a three-run blast. Jac Caglianone is also off to a strong start this spring after a rough rookie campaign. He's hitting .417 with a 1.212 OPS and has launched some tanks in Arizona. That included a double on Thursday against the Diamondbacks that had an exit velocity of 120.2 MPH. Lastly, Maikel Garcia and Michael Massey have gotten off to strong starts with five hits apiece. Garcia has an .814 OPS, and Massey has a 1.445 OPS. Garcia is trying to prove that his breakout in 2025 wasn't a fluke, while Massey is looking to show Royals fans that he can be a long-term solution in Kansas City as a utility player who can rotate between second base and left field. While the familiar position players are off to strong starts, there are some unfamiliar ones, specifically non-roster invitees, who are also doing well at the plate in Cactus League play. Thus, let's take a look at three NRI Royals hitters who are not just putting up strong performances but are also making their case for roster spots on Opening Day (which is one month away). Josh Rojas, 2B/3B Rojas played for the White Sox last year and had a brutal season, which explains why he was not given a Major League deal this offseason, even though he has a career 5.5 fWAR in 639 career Major League games. In 211 plate appearances with the White Sox, Rojas hit .180 with a .232 wOBA, a 44 wRC+, and -1.3 fWAR, according to Fangraphs. His fWAR was the worst mark of his career and his worst mark since 2020 with the Diamondbacks, when he posted a -0.3 fWAR in 17 games. His chances of making the roster initially seemed long, especially with utility bench options such as Nick Loftin and Tyler Tolbert also competing for roster spots this spring. However, Rojas has gotten off to a hot start at the plate, showing he may deserve a shot on the Opening Day roster. In 10 at-bats, the 31-year-old utility infielder has four hits, two home runs, and six RBI. His latest home run came on February 24th against the Cincinnati Reds. The former 26th-round draft pick has long been known for his glove over his bat. His defense at second has traditionally been better than his defense at third. He has a +10 career OAA at the keystone, but a -8 career OAA at the hot corner. That said, the Royals seem set at third base with Garcia. They are less solidified with Massey and Jonathan India, who both struggled in 2025. Furthermore, given Massey's injury history, Rojas could be a player who seamlessly fills in for him, though he doesn't exactly have Massey's defensive versatility. The University of Hawaii product has only 729 innings in the outfield. On a positive note, he has a +1 OAA there, so if the bat continues, the Royals may be prompted to give Rojas more time in the outfield to give him more versatility off the bench. Kevin Newman, 2B/SS The Royals acquired Newman early in the offseason, and he seemed like an intriguing pickup who could give Kansas City not only positional flexibility but a veteran presence. In fact, his acquisition could be a reason why the Royals opted not to bring back Adam Frazier for the 2026 season. In 10 at-bats this spring, the 32-year-old infielder has three hits and is hitting .300 with an .864 OPS. He has one walk and two strikeouts, and he has hit two doubles, showing that he has the batted-ball profile to take advantage of Kauffman Stadium's spacious grounds. Against Arizona pitcher Kade Strowd, Newman laced a double down the line and showed excellent speed to get to second base standing up. Newman had an underwhelming 2025 season with the Angels, posting a .202 average, 27 wRC+, and -0.7 fWAR in 116 plate appearances. However, he played with the Diamondbacks in 2024 and fared much better over a larger sample. In 111 games and 311 plate appearances that season, he hit .278 with an 89 wRC+ and 1.4 fWAR. He also hit three home runs, scored 41 runs, stole eight bases, and provided solid defense, as evidenced by his +7 OAA at shortstop and second base combined. Loftin has gotten off to a slow start this spring. He is currently hitting .167 with a .481 OPS in 12 at-bats. While he did have a two-run double today, if the former Baylor product continues to perform poorly at the plate, the Royals may opt for Newman over Loftin for the right-handed utility role off the bench to start the 2026 season. Connor Kaiser, 2B When the Royals signed him to a Minor League deal, Kaiser struck me as more of an everyday player for the Omaha Storm Chasers than a serious candidate to make the Major League Opening Day roster. That said, the former Blue Valley West High School product is showing that he may be a call-up at some point in 2026, even if he begins the year in Omaha. In eight at-bats, the 29-year-old second baseman has three hits, including two doubles. He is hitting .375 with a 1.000 OPS, and he has one RBI to boot. It's a small sample, and Kaiser has mostly done this while coming off the bench (meaning he isn't facing top-flight pitching). Nonetheless, he's producing in the limited at-bats that he's getting. Kaiser will likely receive a lot more soon when Witt and Garcia leave camp to report for the World Baseball Classic. The Vanderbility product doesn't have an extensive track record in Major League. He has 23 career MLB plate appearances and has a career .091 average, -29 wrC+, and -0.2 fWAR. He also strikes out a bit too much, as he has a 30.4% career K rate in the Majors and had a 27.5% K rate with Reno, Arizona's Triple-A club, last season. Still, when he gets a hold of the ball, Kaiser can find the gaps, much like Newman, as illustrated in this hit below with the Diamondbacks last season (his first career MLB hit). With some modifications from the Royals' hitting development team, it's possible that Kaiser could morph into a Cam Devanney of sorts, who broke out last season in Triple-A Omaha. While Devanney didn't contribute at all to the Major League roster, he was utilized as capital in a trade to Pittsburgh for Frazier at the All-Star Break. Maybe Frazier can be acquired again by the Royals midseason, with Kaiser as the trade asset this time around.
  21. Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images Kansas City Royals closer Carlos Estevez made his 2026 Cactus League debut on Tuesday, February 24th, against the Reds in Goodyear. Safe to say, it didn't go swimmingly. In one inning of work, Estevez allowed two runs on two hits, back-to-back home runs by Reds sluggers Elly De La Cruz and Eugenio Suarez. He did minimize the damage after those two home runs, retiring Spencer Steer, Will Benson, and Tyler Stephenson in order. However, the 33-year-old Royals reliever allowed four hard-hit balls and an average exit velocity of 99 MPH on batted balls in his lone Spring Training outing thus far. To make matters worse, MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers pointed out that Estevez saw a massive drop in his velocity from a season ago (though she said he also showed a similar drop last season). Of course, Royals fans are solely focusing on every little thing players do right now in Arizona, both good and bad. Hence, some are panicking, thinking that Estevez may be falling off a cliff in 2026 after making the All-Star team and leading Major League Baseball in saves a season ago. Are fans valid in their feelings that the Royals should be concerned about Estevez's ability to repeat his sensational 2025 campaign? Or is that just an example of Estevez getting warmed up and treating Spring Training in a similar way to how a veteran offensive lineman treats NFL Summer Camp? Here are three takeaways from Estevez's first outing of Spring Training and why Royals fans should keep their heads cool for now. Estevez May Have Been Working On A Particular Pitch (i.e., his changeup) When looking at his TJ Stats pitch plot data, his TJ Stuff+ doesn't look great. All three of his pitches registered TJ Stuff+ marks below 95. That is not an encouraging sign, especially considering his limited repertoire. His four-seamer, which he threw only once, received the highest grade, 42. Conversely, his two most thrown pitches, the changeup (55% usage) and slider (41% usage), registered grades of 30 and 32, respectively. Those aren't good trends, especially considering what Estevez's stuff looked like last season, according to TJ Stats pitch plot data. Estevez only threw the changeup 16% of the time last year, and it was a below-average pitch, according to the data. His main offspeed offering sported a 96 TJ Stuff+ and 49 grade, with limited spin at 1,616 RPM. Still, his TJ Stuff+ was 13 points lower on Tuesday than his overall mark in 2025. That said, it's entirely plausible that Estevez was trying something new with the changeup in this Spring Training outing, and the TJ Stuff+ metrics were a casualty. Here are some key differences in his changeup against the Reds and what it looked like a season ago. Last season, his changeup had an iVB of 9.8. On Tuesday, it had an iVB of 11. Thus, it may be that Estevez was trying to get more vertical movement on the pitch, and the quality was inconsistent as he toyed with this difference. A sign of that experimentation could be found in his changeup trends, as shown in both his pitch movement plot and velocity linear chart. The former, which can be seen in the Spring Training plot above, showed three pitches that are WAY off from the previous group, illustrating "gross mistake" pitches (i.e., super-waste ones). The sheer difference in movement profile from the main group of changeup pitches demonstrates that he tried something different, and it didn't work out (or he couldn't quite get a grip and lost command of it). In the latter, the changeup shows major dips at a few points in the velocity chart, as shown below. Those illustrate to baseball fans that Estevez messed up with his control against Cincinnati while trying something different on his changeup. Estevez had three changeups that hovered around 80 MPH or slightly below. That is a far cry from the rest of his changeup pitches, which were around the upper 80's. The Dominican-born pitcher, who will be pitching for the Dominican Republic in the upcoming WBC, is a veteran who doesn't need to earn his spot in Spring Training. Thus, Estevez trying to tweak his mix mid-game is something a pitcher of his status can afford to do, even if it produces lackluster results. He's not going to lose his closer job after one rough Cactus League game. Estevez May Be a Slow Starter The right-hander may just be a slow starter, whether it's in Spring Training or the start of the season. Therefore, this may be something Royals fans just have to get used to with him, or at least pay attention to, in his appearances in Arizona. Since 2021, Estevez has posted ERA marks in the double digits twice: 2021 with the Rockies (12.38 ERA) and 2023 with the Angels (10.57 ERA). While that looks bad, it's Spring Training, and the sample sizes are so small. One bad outing can sink a player's Cactus League campaign. Vice versa, a good Spring Training outing can correct itself in March/April with more innings and against better competition. This is what happened to Estevez last year in his first year in Kansas City. After posting a 1.80 ERA in five IP in the Cactus League, he struggled out of the gate, recovering from a minor back injury. He had a 2.77 ERA in 13 IP in April, but his WHIP was slightly higher than expected at 1.23, and he had eight walks to only 11 strikeouts. He struggled to get strikeouts, and his lackluster fastball velocity in the first two months (April and May) was likely a reason. Here's what his four-seam velocity looked like by month last season, and notice how in July, he looked like his best self, velocity-wise. Obviously, there's a desire for more with Estevez, especially with him signed in free agency last season and making slightly over $11 million this season in the last year of the two-year deal he signed prior to the 2025 MLB season. However, given his size and age, this may just be a sign that things are taking longer for Estevez to get ready for the upcoming season. A positive difference in this Spring Training, compared to a year ago, is that Estevez is healthy. A healthy Spring Training could help him avoid a slow start in the regular season, especially in April, as was the case in Estevez's first season in Kansas City. Could Normal Regression Be Happening? Estevez has become a fan favorite, especially for his Dragon Ball Z-inspired celebration after each and every save. It's becoming a popular trend for Royals fans to follow (and Royals broadcasters to revel in) after a Kansas City victory. However, while Estevez impressed last season with a 2.45 ERA, his FIP was 3.67, xERA 3.69, and xFIP 4.95. Furthermore, his strikeout rate dropped from 23.6% in 2024 to 20.1% in 2025, and his K-BB% declined from 17.9% to 11.9% over the same period. Hence, it's not a surprise that Estevez had only a 1.1 fWAR last year, which was the same amount he produced in 2024 with the Angels and Phillies, but in 11 fewer innings. The TJ Stats summary from last year also illustrates a closer with good stuff, but struggles to generate chase and whiffs on a regular basis. Estevez had a TJ Stuff+ of 103 overall, with pitch grades of 57 (slider) and 60 (four-seamer). That said, his chase was only 23%, his whiff was only 19%, and his xwOBACON was .386. All of those were below-average marks for Estevez last year, with his whiff rate rating especially low. ATC is projecting 32 saves in 65 IP for Estevez in 2026, according to Fangraphs. That also includes a 4.15 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, a 21.4% K rate, and 13.1% K-BB%. There are some improvements from last season expected for Estevez in those projections, especially in terms of K-BB% (his mark last season was his lowest mark in a single season since 2017, his second year in the Majors). Conversely, every other category in ATC's projection of him is a regression, suggesting that Estevez is unlikely to be the 42-save, sub-3.00 ERA reliever he was a year ago. The struggles this Spring Training may show that some regression is due to Estevez in this upcoming year. Nonetheless, that doesn't mean that Royals fans should automatically give up, especially after one bad outing. Even with a slightly down season, Estevez could still be a 3 to 3.50 ERA pitcher and collect 30+ saves in 2026. That's how good the stuff is (even if the chase and swing-and-miss aren't as good). This bad performance from Estevez isn't something for the Royals to freak out about just yet. Instead, it should be eye-opening and a sign that he may regress and look more mortal (i.e., less lucky) in 2026. However, he isn't going to fall off a cliff statistically for the Royals. Rather, he will just need to receive more help from other pitchers in the bullpen. With newcomers Matt Strahm, Alex Lange, and Nick Mears, as well as returners Lucas Erceg, John Schreiber, and Daniel Lynch IV, the Royals have the help Estevez may need more often than a year ago. View full article
  22. Kansas City Royals closer Carlos Estevez made his 2026 Cactus League debut on Tuesday, February 24th, against the Reds in Goodyear. Safe to say, it didn't go swimmingly. In one inning of work, Estevez allowed two runs on two hits, back-to-back home runs by Reds sluggers Elly De La Cruz and Eugenio Suarez. He did minimize the damage after those two home runs, retiring Spencer Steer, Will Benson, and Tyler Stephenson in order. However, the 33-year-old Royals reliever allowed four hard-hit balls and an average exit velocity of 99 MPH on batted balls in his lone Spring Training outing thus far. To make matters worse, MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers pointed out that Estevez saw a massive drop in his velocity from a season ago (though she said he also showed a similar drop last season). Of course, Royals fans are solely focusing on every little thing players do right now in Arizona, both good and bad. Hence, some are panicking, thinking that Estevez may be falling off a cliff in 2026 after making the All-Star team and leading Major League Baseball in saves a season ago. Are fans valid in their feelings that the Royals should be concerned about Estevez's ability to repeat his sensational 2025 campaign? Or is that just an example of Estevez getting warmed up and treating Spring Training in a similar way to how a veteran offensive lineman treats NFL Summer Camp? Here are three takeaways from Estevez's first outing of Spring Training and why Royals fans should keep their heads cool for now. Estevez May Have Been Working On A Particular Pitch (i.e., his changeup) When looking at his TJ Stats pitch plot data, his TJ Stuff+ doesn't look great. All three of his pitches registered TJ Stuff+ marks below 95. That is not an encouraging sign, especially considering his limited repertoire. His four-seamer, which he threw only once, received the highest grade, 42. Conversely, his two most thrown pitches, the changeup (55% usage) and slider (41% usage), registered grades of 30 and 32, respectively. Those aren't good trends, especially considering what Estevez's stuff looked like last season, according to TJ Stats pitch plot data. Estevez only threw the changeup 16% of the time last year, and it was a below-average pitch, according to the data. His main offspeed offering sported a 96 TJ Stuff+ and 49 grade, with limited spin at 1,616 RPM. Still, his TJ Stuff+ was 13 points lower on Tuesday than his overall mark in 2025. That said, it's entirely plausible that Estevez was trying something new with the changeup in this Spring Training outing, and the TJ Stuff+ metrics were a casualty. Here are some key differences in his changeup against the Reds and what it looked like a season ago. Last season, his changeup had an iVB of 9.8. On Tuesday, it had an iVB of 11. Thus, it may be that Estevez was trying to get more vertical movement on the pitch, and the quality was inconsistent as he toyed with this difference. A sign of that experimentation could be found in his changeup trends, as shown in both his pitch movement plot and velocity linear chart. The former, which can be seen in the Spring Training plot above, showed three pitches that are WAY off from the previous group, illustrating "gross mistake" pitches (i.e., super-waste ones). The sheer difference in movement profile from the main group of changeup pitches demonstrates that he tried something different, and it didn't work out (or he couldn't quite get a grip and lost command of it). In the latter, the changeup shows major dips at a few points in the velocity chart, as shown below. Those illustrate to baseball fans that Estevez messed up with his control against Cincinnati while trying something different on his changeup. Estevez had three changeups that hovered around 80 MPH or slightly below. That is a far cry from the rest of his changeup pitches, which were around the upper 80's. The Dominican-born pitcher, who will be pitching for the Dominican Republic in the upcoming WBC, is a veteran who doesn't need to earn his spot in Spring Training. Thus, Estevez trying to tweak his mix mid-game is something a pitcher of his status can afford to do, even if it produces lackluster results. He's not going to lose his closer job after one rough Cactus League game. Estevez May Be a Slow Starter The right-hander may just be a slow starter, whether it's in Spring Training or the start of the season. Therefore, this may be something Royals fans just have to get used to with him, or at least pay attention to, in his appearances in Arizona. Since 2021, Estevez has posted ERA marks in the double digits twice: 2021 with the Rockies (12.38 ERA) and 2023 with the Angels (10.57 ERA). While that looks bad, it's Spring Training, and the sample sizes are so small. One bad outing can sink a player's Cactus League campaign. Vice versa, a good Spring Training outing can correct itself in March/April with more innings and against better competition. This is what happened to Estevez last year in his first year in Kansas City. After posting a 1.80 ERA in five IP in the Cactus League, he struggled out of the gate, recovering from a minor back injury. He had a 2.77 ERA in 13 IP in April, but his WHIP was slightly higher than expected at 1.23, and he had eight walks to only 11 strikeouts. He struggled to get strikeouts, and his lackluster fastball velocity in the first two months (April and May) was likely a reason. Here's what his four-seam velocity looked like by month last season, and notice how in July, he looked like his best self, velocity-wise. Obviously, there's a desire for more with Estevez, especially with him signed in free agency last season and making slightly over $11 million this season in the last year of the two-year deal he signed prior to the 2025 MLB season. However, given his size and age, this may just be a sign that things are taking longer for Estevez to get ready for the upcoming season. A positive difference in this Spring Training, compared to a year ago, is that Estevez is healthy. A healthy Spring Training could help him avoid a slow start in the regular season, especially in April, as was the case in Estevez's first season in Kansas City. Could Normal Regression Be Happening? Estevez has become a fan favorite, especially for his Dragon Ball Z-inspired celebration after each and every save. It's becoming a popular trend for Royals fans to follow (and Royals broadcasters to revel in) after a Kansas City victory. However, while Estevez impressed last season with a 2.45 ERA, his FIP was 3.67, xERA 3.69, and xFIP 4.95. Furthermore, his strikeout rate dropped from 23.6% in 2024 to 20.1% in 2025, and his K-BB% declined from 17.9% to 11.9% over the same period. Hence, it's not a surprise that Estevez had only a 1.1 fWAR last year, which was the same amount he produced in 2024 with the Angels and Phillies, but in 11 fewer innings. The TJ Stats summary from last year also illustrates a closer with good stuff, but struggles to generate chase and whiffs on a regular basis. Estevez had a TJ Stuff+ of 103 overall, with pitch grades of 57 (slider) and 60 (four-seamer). That said, his chase was only 23%, his whiff was only 19%, and his xwOBACON was .386. All of those were below-average marks for Estevez last year, with his whiff rate rating especially low. ATC is projecting 32 saves in 65 IP for Estevez in 2026, according to Fangraphs. That also includes a 4.15 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, a 21.4% K rate, and 13.1% K-BB%. There are some improvements from last season expected for Estevez in those projections, especially in terms of K-BB% (his mark last season was his lowest mark in a single season since 2017, his second year in the Majors). Conversely, every other category in ATC's projection of him is a regression, suggesting that Estevez is unlikely to be the 42-save, sub-3.00 ERA reliever he was a year ago. The struggles this Spring Training may show that some regression is due to Estevez in this upcoming year. Nonetheless, that doesn't mean that Royals fans should automatically give up, especially after one bad outing. Even with a slightly down season, Estevez could still be a 3 to 3.50 ERA pitcher and collect 30+ saves in 2026. That's how good the stuff is (even if the chase and swing-and-miss aren't as good). This bad performance from Estevez isn't something for the Royals to freak out about just yet. Instead, it should be eye-opening and a sign that he may regress and look more mortal (i.e., less lucky) in 2026. However, he isn't going to fall off a cliff statistically for the Royals. Rather, he will just need to receive more help from other pitchers in the bullpen. With newcomers Matt Strahm, Alex Lange, and Nick Mears, as well as returners Lucas Erceg, John Schreiber, and Daniel Lynch IV, the Royals have the help Estevez may need more often than a year ago.
  23. Agreed. I don't think a lot of KC sports fans realize how lucky we are, especially since we are so used to Patrick Mahomes. Having a Top-3 players in baseball in a market like KC is pretty rare, especially in baseball, where star players are more likely to play in bigger markets than the NFL.
  24. Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images On Tuesday, the Kansas City Royals announced on social media that Bobby Witt Jr. received the Lou Gehrig Memorial Award for the 2025 season. He becomes the third Royals player in franchise history to earn the award, joining Hall of Famer George Brett and current captain Salvador Perez. For those unfamiliar with the award, it is defined as follows, according to the press release found on MLB.com. Witt earned the award through his various charitable contributions to the Kansas City community, as highlighted in the article. His most prominent work was raising funds and awareness for research and support in the fight against ALS. That includes hosting camps and clinics that raised $45,000 to financially support those suffering from ALS, including Sarah Nauser, a local Kansas Citian who has developed a close relationship with Witt and the Royals organization over the years. In the press release, Perez highlighted Witt's work in the fight against ALS, as well as the leadership he demonstrates in the clubhouse and the community. Salvy pointed out that Witt deserves to be the next Royals captain after he retires (though no date has been set on that yet). In addition to his work in the fight against ALS, Witt was also involved in increasing youth participation in baseball through MLB's Play Ball initiative, serving as the first-ever Play Ball Ambassador. Furthermore, Witt volunteered as a Royals Literacy League Classroom champion to improve literacy rates in elementary schools across the Kansas City Metro. All these different causes contributed to him earning this prestigious award in the MLB community. What Witt Means to the Royals and Kansas City In the press release, Royals President of Baseball Operations JJ Picollo commented on Witt's honor and how the Royals superstar embodied the spirit of Gehrig with this award, and in his work in the Kansas City community. Hopes were high when Witt was drafted No. 2 overall in the 2019 MLB Draft. While still a high schooler, many Royals fans envisioned Witt when he was selected as someone who could become the kind of franchise player the organization hadn't really had since Brett retired after the 1993 season (which included Brett hitting a walk-off home run in his last game). There have been players post-Brett who have been anointed as the heir apparent to lead the Royals franchise. That includes highly-drafted players like Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon, Carlos Beltran, and even Johnny Damon, with the latter starring in a commercial with Brett that almost hinted at Damon being the next "face" of the Royals franchise. However, while all those players had their moments and highs, they have never touched Brett's aura. Witt isn't quite there just yet, but he's closing the gap quite quickly. In just four seasons, Witt has collected 105 home runs, 403 runs, 373 RBI, and 148 stolen bases. In 2,722 career plate appearances, he has a .290 average, .357 wOBA, 129 wRC+, and 26.7 fWAR. Since 2010, Witt has accumulated the most fWAR of any Royals player, surpassing Gordon this past year, who accumulated 26.2 fWAR since 2010, according to Fangraphs. The dynamic Royals shortstop has also earned hardware during his four-year tenure. In addition to the Gehrig award, he's also a two-time All-Star, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove winner, and a one-time Platinum Glove winner and American League Batting champion. He's finished in the Top-5 in AL MVP voting twice, including second in 2024 (behind the Yankees' Aaron Judge). Lastly, he's been on Team USA for the World Baseball Classic twice and should be a key part of their lineup in this year's edition. (It's amazing how he was buried by Team USA manager Mark DeRosa in the last WBC for Tim Anderson, who's pretty much out of baseball now.) Amazingly, Witt has also earned all these honors under the age of 26. What's even more incredible is that Witt isn't satisfied with his career just yet. He believes he has even more room to grow, as discussed in a recent interview with MLB Network. All of Witt's on-field honors, combined with the Gehrig award, show how important and special Witt is to the Royals community and in Kansas City sports history. Because the Royals are a small-market franchise in a game where big markets rule, it seemed likely that Witt's tenure with the Royals would be brief. That was the case with former "stars" before Witt like Damon, Beltran, and Hosmer (at least Hosmer helped the Royals to two pennants and a title). After all, Witt's dad played for the Texas Rangers, a big-market franchise in his home state. Many pessimistic Royals fans assumed Witt would eventually return to Texas once he became a free agent. Heck, there was even a point where some from that Royals fanbase thought it would be beneficial to trade Witt for a super prospect package, similar to the one the Nationals got from San Diego in exchange for Juan Soto. And yet, the Royals not only held onto him, but also inked him prior to the 2024 season to an 11-year, $288.778 million deal that would guarantee him to be in Kansas City until at least 2030. Since signing that contract, Witt has not only achieved monumental individual success but has also led the Royals to two winning seasons and a return to the postseason. Remember, prior to 2024, the last Kansas City team to win a World Series was the 2015 team. Witt winning on the field would be enough for Royals fans. And yet, he has done more than that. He's been active in the community. He's a hit with kids like Roy Hobbs in "The Natural" (the movie, not the book, which is more depressing). He's been a major supporter and advocate in the fight against a disease like ALS. Witt doesn't have to do these things. He could be a superstar who could carry himself in a bigger city or market, hang out with all kinds of celebrities, and make more money in endorsements for more national brands (or Kalshi; hopefully Witt never goes down this route like some athletes). However, that's not Witt. There's something genuine about Witt. Something wholesome and unique that fans don't often see in many baseball players, especially those paid vast sums of money per year. Witt has something special that makes him the exact right fit for the Royals franchise, which has been in the doldrums for decades. This fanbase and city not only needed winning baseball after years of brutal play in the wake of former owner Ewing Kauffman's death and Brett's retirement. They needed a hopeful face. Maybe not a savior, but something close to that. Witt has been everything and more to Kansas City in his four seasons with the Royals. And the best part? There is more to come, both on the field and off. The Gehrig award is just the beginning for Witt's legacy with the Royals, as crazy as that sounds. View full article
  25. On Tuesday, the Kansas City Royals announced on social media that Bobby Witt Jr. received the Lou Gehrig Memorial Award for the 2025 season. He becomes the third Royals player in franchise history to earn the award, joining Hall of Famer George Brett and current captain Salvador Perez. For those unfamiliar with the award, it is defined as follows, according to the press release found on MLB.com. Witt earned the award through his various charitable contributions to the Kansas City community, as highlighted in the article. His most prominent work was raising funds and awareness for research and support in the fight against ALS. That includes hosting camps and clinics that raised $45,000 to financially support those suffering from ALS, including Sarah Nauser, a local Kansas Citian who has developed a close relationship with Witt and the Royals organization over the years. In the press release, Perez highlighted Witt's work in the fight against ALS, as well as the leadership he demonstrates in the clubhouse and the community. Salvy pointed out that Witt deserves to be the next Royals captain after he retires (though no date has been set on that yet). In addition to his work in the fight against ALS, Witt was also involved in increasing youth participation in baseball through MLB's Play Ball initiative, serving as the first-ever Play Ball Ambassador. Furthermore, Witt volunteered as a Royals Literacy League Classroom champion to improve literacy rates in elementary schools across the Kansas City Metro. All these different causes contributed to him earning this prestigious award in the MLB community. What Witt Means to the Royals and Kansas City In the press release, Royals President of Baseball Operations JJ Picollo commented on Witt's honor and how the Royals superstar embodied the spirit of Gehrig with this award, and in his work in the Kansas City community. Hopes were high when Witt was drafted No. 2 overall in the 2019 MLB Draft. While still a high schooler, many Royals fans envisioned Witt when he was selected as someone who could become the kind of franchise player the organization hadn't really had since Brett retired after the 1993 season (which included Brett hitting a walk-off home run in his last game). There have been players post-Brett who have been anointed as the heir apparent to lead the Royals franchise. That includes highly-drafted players like Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon, Carlos Beltran, and even Johnny Damon, with the latter starring in a commercial with Brett that almost hinted at Damon being the next "face" of the Royals franchise. However, while all those players had their moments and highs, they have never touched Brett's aura. Witt isn't quite there just yet, but he's closing the gap quite quickly. In just four seasons, Witt has collected 105 home runs, 403 runs, 373 RBI, and 148 stolen bases. In 2,722 career plate appearances, he has a .290 average, .357 wOBA, 129 wRC+, and 26.7 fWAR. Since 2010, Witt has accumulated the most fWAR of any Royals player, surpassing Gordon this past year, who accumulated 26.2 fWAR since 2010, according to Fangraphs. The dynamic Royals shortstop has also earned hardware during his four-year tenure. In addition to the Gehrig award, he's also a two-time All-Star, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove winner, and a one-time Platinum Glove winner and American League Batting champion. He's finished in the Top-5 in AL MVP voting twice, including second in 2024 (behind the Yankees' Aaron Judge). Lastly, he's been on Team USA for the World Baseball Classic twice and should be a key part of their lineup in this year's edition. (It's amazing how he was buried by Team USA manager Mark DeRosa in the last WBC for Tim Anderson, who's pretty much out of baseball now.) Amazingly, Witt has also earned all these honors under the age of 26. What's even more incredible is that Witt isn't satisfied with his career just yet. He believes he has even more room to grow, as discussed in a recent interview with MLB Network. All of Witt's on-field honors, combined with the Gehrig award, show how important and special Witt is to the Royals community and in Kansas City sports history. Because the Royals are a small-market franchise in a game where big markets rule, it seemed likely that Witt's tenure with the Royals would be brief. That was the case with former "stars" before Witt like Damon, Beltran, and Hosmer (at least Hosmer helped the Royals to two pennants and a title). After all, Witt's dad played for the Texas Rangers, a big-market franchise in his home state. Many pessimistic Royals fans assumed Witt would eventually return to Texas once he became a free agent. Heck, there was even a point where some from that Royals fanbase thought it would be beneficial to trade Witt for a super prospect package, similar to the one the Nationals got from San Diego in exchange for Juan Soto. And yet, the Royals not only held onto him, but also inked him prior to the 2024 season to an 11-year, $288.778 million deal that would guarantee him to be in Kansas City until at least 2030. Since signing that contract, Witt has not only achieved monumental individual success but has also led the Royals to two winning seasons and a return to the postseason. Remember, prior to 2024, the last Kansas City team to win a World Series was the 2015 team. Witt winning on the field would be enough for Royals fans. And yet, he has done more than that. He's been active in the community. He's a hit with kids like Roy Hobbs in "The Natural" (the movie, not the book, which is more depressing). He's been a major supporter and advocate in the fight against a disease like ALS. Witt doesn't have to do these things. He could be a superstar who could carry himself in a bigger city or market, hang out with all kinds of celebrities, and make more money in endorsements for more national brands (or Kalshi; hopefully Witt never goes down this route like some athletes). However, that's not Witt. There's something genuine about Witt. Something wholesome and unique that fans don't often see in many baseball players, especially those paid vast sums of money per year. Witt has something special that makes him the exact right fit for the Royals franchise, which has been in the doldrums for decades. This fanbase and city not only needed winning baseball after years of brutal play in the wake of former owner Ewing Kauffman's death and Brett's retirement. They needed a hopeful face. Maybe not a savior, but something close to that. Witt has been everything and more to Kansas City in his four seasons with the Royals. And the best part? There is more to come, both on the field and off. The Gehrig award is just the beginning for Witt's legacy with the Royals, as crazy as that sounds.
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