What Should The Royals' Catching Alignment Look Like In 2026?

The automatic ball-strike challenge system (ABS) is coming to the major leagues in 2026 after being tested in the minor leagues for the last several years. That late-inning ball that should have been a strikeout to end the game, and the era of irate managers kicking dirt over home plate may be winding down. Davy Andrews of FanGraphs wrote a piece discussing some numbers on challenge rate, success rate, and more at the MLB level. The challenge rate has little player-by-player data available, so until the 2026 season begins in earnest, we are going to take a look at the stats we do have and see if it’s time for Salvador Perez to hand the reins over to the next generation. 

Perez is coming into his age-36 season and entering 2026 as one of the worst framers in baseball, per Baseball Savant’s framing value ranking, 49th out of 57 catchers in 2025 at -7 runs. His blocking is also at the bottom of the barrel per Savant’s blocking value ranking, second-to-last at -15 runs, with only Agustin Ramirez behind him, who is almost twice as bad. The shortened 2020 season and 2024 were the only years he had a positive framing run value, with his other years since 2018 not exceeding -6 runs. 

Carter Jensen, the only real competition for playing time behind the plate until 2023 1st-round pick Blake Mitchell, is ready. He doesn’t have the same sample size as Perez (225 pitches vs. 2,636), but he comes in at zero Catcher Runs, already above the league average of -1 run. Jensen’s blocking value (219 opportunities vs. Perez’s 3,365) came in at -1 runs, which ranks 75th out of 99 catchers that saw at least 100 pitches. 

Perez struggles to frame balls on his arm side of the plate; his biggest gap is shown in the shadow zone’s left and right portions of the zone, going from +3 runs on the left to -4 runs on the right. Jensen comes in right at zero runs for both. With the Royals projected to have three left-handed starters in 2026, it would make sense to use Perez on those days and Jensen with the right-handed starters, given each pitcher's pitch usage and arsenal, if we are maximizing shadow zone value.  

As a team, the Royals were first in the league in slider run value and third in changeup run value in 2025, but were 13th and 3rd in total usage, respectively. If the team chooses to increase the use of sliders across the board, that would provide another reason to maintain the Salvy-for-lefties and Jensen-for-righties setup. 

Part of framing’s value also comes from ensuring that strikes stay strikes, as Davy Andrews again mentions in this piece. This is where Perez shows a higher strike percentage, yet still has a lower run value of -2, versus Jensen’s zero runs. Jensen shows his advantage as you get further outside the zone compared to Perez: again, zero runs for Jensen vs -4 runs for Perez. 

This chart from Baseball Savant’s framing leaderboard shows the disparity of how far inside vs. outside the strike zone you are. Noticeably, Jensen’s called strike percent is only 68 percent on pitches 1-2 inches inside the zone, while Perez sits at 77 percent, both below league average at 79 percent. Jensen has the advantage in every way outside the zone pitches, so that he will steal more strikes than Perez, but we need strikes to be strikes. 

Armed with this data, I don’t expect the Royals to make a big change purely for framing or defensive reasons. It’s going to come from the fact that Perez is turning 36 and his offensive production is naturally declining. While he has stayed healthier the last two seasons, much of this can likely be attributed to the shift to first base and designated hitter to provide more rest and keep his bat in the lineup, even though he has been most productive as a catcher. 

Jensen is forcing his way into the lineup, given his offensive production and league-average defense at a minimum. Steamer is projecting him for 68 games, and the FanGraphs depth charts project him for 91 games. If he splits half of these at DH and half at catcher, it’ll provide ample opportunity to rest both Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino as the three cycle through catcher, first base, and designated hitter. 

With Perez signing a two-year extension, he’s not going anywhere just yet, but this will give Jensen a chance to learn from the captain before taking over full-time. Once Mitchell is deemed ready to join the majors, this puzzle gets a whole lot more complicated, but we will leave that for another time.