Should The Royals Cash In And Trade Seth Lugo?

The 45-62 Kansas City Royals have been quite bad this season. Only the Athletics and the Los Angeles Angels have been worse in the American League, so considering that they were over .500 in each of the last two years, it’s certainly a disappointing reality for Kansas City and its fans.

Naturally, it makes sense for Kansas City to trade some of their veterans and players close to becoming free agents in exchange for prospects or young, MLB-ready players. If the Royals play their cards right, they could set themselves up to return to contention in a year or two.

One of those pending decisions is whether to trade or keep starting pitcher Seth Lugo. The answer is quite simple: the right-hander has been a fantastic Royal for two and a half seasons now, but with the long-term health of the organization in mind, a deal is in everybody’s best interests.

Lugo Still Has Some Innings In The Tank

Lugo, despite being 36, is still capable of uncorking those beautiful two-seamers that catch just enough of the zone to get the called strike, or the slow curveballs that drive hitters crazy. He is also still capable of helping a contender as a solid mid-rotation or backend starter, depending on where he lands. It will all depend on many factors, though.

Lugo is sporting a 4.36 ERA and a 4.27 FIP in 117 2/3 innings this year. He may not have the upside of his 2024 version, when he led the team to the postseason with 206.2 innings of a 3.00 ERA, but he has a rubber arm and rarely misses starts. He won’t be the ace in a postseason-caliber staff, but with starting pitching so scarce and so few selling teams, the Royals could get something meaningful in return.

Two factors complicate matters, though: one is his age. Lugo is no spring chicken, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be useful and reliable. The other, and perhaps the more complex one, is his contract.

Lugo’s contract is not a long financial burden for potential acquiring squads, but he is not cheap. He makes $23 million per year in both 2026 and 2027, with a $20 million club option that becomes guaranteed with 335 innings combined in 2026 and 2027 or 190 frames in 2027. If the team doesn’t bring him back in 2028, Lugo gets a $3 million buyout.

Lugo, therefore, is attached to some significant cash, which would lessen the quality of the prospects that the Royals will be getting for him, or force them to eat some money to get better players. That last option seems unlikely.

The underlying metrics tell us that Lugo has benefitted from some luck this year. His Statcast profile is full of blue, and his fastball velocity is right in line with last year’s 91.5 mph. The problem is that the number was 92.2 mph in 2024 and 93.3 mph in 2023, so it’s clearly in decline. That probably explains why he put up ERAs in the 4.00s in 2025 and 2026.

Another worrisome development is how quickly his strikeout rate is declining. Ever since it peaked at 33.1 percent in 2019, it has been in a steady fall:

• 2020: 29.4 percent
• 2021: 28.2 percent
• 2022: 25.4 percent
• 2023: 23.2 percent
• 2024: 21.7 percent
• 2025: 20.5 percent
• 2026: 18.8 percent

Given the league-wide hunger for starters, the Royals could get something for Lugo. However, they have been reluctant to budge on their high asking price, and the player has a full no-trade clause, too, further complicating matters.

Since Lugo virtually has full control of whether he stays or goes, it could be tricky for the Royals, a hypothetical acquiring team, and the pitcher to be on the same page. With that being said, there will be plenty of suitors for Lugo, and you can argue that the organization should be more open to dealing him.

Which teams could be looking for a starter like Lugo?

Potential Fits For Seth Lugo In Trade

Chicago Cubs: The Cubs almost have an entire rotation of injured starters: Justin Steele, Ben Brown, Cade Horton, and Edward Cabrera. They are casting a wide net when it comes to pitching help, and Lugo could be a fit.

Philadelphia Phillies: Christopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, and Zack Wheeler are all magnificent, but Aaron Nola has been awful this year, and Philadelphia needs a reliable back-of-the-rotation stabilizer.

Chicago White Sox: The White Sox have gotten the most out of their players this season, but if they want to hold off the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central, they will need starting pitching help. They have been connected to Reid Detmers, but Lugo would make sense if the Royals eat some of the money owed to him.

Milwaukee Brewers: Lugo, to be fair, has the look of a Brewers type of pitcher: a steady veteran with lots of pitching know-how. Perhaps Milwaukee, one of the savviest organizations in the league, could alter his mechanics or optimize his pitch mix to help him offset the declining velocity.

View our top trade candidates list, up to nearly 70 names and updated regularly!