Four Mid-Rotation Free-Agent Starters Who Won't Break The Bank

Well, after having explored the four options that seem ideal to me for the Kansas City Royals to improve their starting rotation, this time we continue with four alternatives that would be interesting to explore in the search for a mid-rotation starter.

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Brandon Woodruff, RHP

Diamond Centric Free Agent Ranking: 25

When it comes to track record and ability, there are not many right-handed pitchers in this free-agent class who can match what Woodruff’s best version has shown, with a consistent career 3.36 xFIP over 790 ⅓ innings. However, there are also not many who have gone through a similar injury history to his and have had to get back up time and time again. Woodruff finished with only nine starts in 2026, pitched 45 ⅓ innings and recorded a 2.98 ERA, with just a 0.84 WHIP, a 3.89 xFIP and 1.2 fWAR.

Woodruff has never been a pitcher with a great ability to generate whiffs, but he has been able to maintain a favorable strikeout-to-walk ratio throughout his career, with rates of 10.45 K/9 and 2.28 BB/9. In 2026, his season ended on July 4 due to discomfort in his right shoulder, and he did not return until the postseason, when he made a relief appearance and pitched one inning. That said, one of Woodruff’s most concerning changes, even when he is healthy, is his loss of velocity and the need to adapt his repertoire to continue getting results. His four-seam fastball averaged 90.0 mph in 2026, compared to 87.9 mph in 2025, which placed his fastball velocity in the 28th percentile during 2025 and in the 15th during 2026.

When he has been healthy, Woodruff has averaged 150 innings per season, but he has not reached that volume in consecutive years since 2021 and 2022. Steamer’s projection for 2027 estimates that he will pitch 135 innings, with a 4.18 FIP and an almost identical 4.17 xFIP. Woodruff finished his one-year, $22.025 million contract with Milwaukee after accepting the qualifying offer for 2026. According to the Blueprint tool, his value could be around $11.5 million, a figure that would allow the Royals to explore a one-season contract and bet on him recovering the ability to provide them with a significant number of innings.

Tyler Mahle, RHP

Diamond Centric Free Agent Ranking: 35

This starting point seems interesting to me: Steamer projects Mahle for 154 innings, a 4.10 ERA, a 4.11 FIP, and 2.1 WAR for 2027. It is an estimate that seems to represent a midpoint between his two versions of 2026. First, he had a terrible stint with the San Francisco Giants, where he recorded a 5.13 ERA with a 4.38 FIP, but then he managed to leave some doubts behind by recording a 1.99 ERA and a 3.32 FIP after recovering and moving to the Atlanta Braves at the trade deadline. The expectation with Mahle is that he can remain a mid-value starter, not that he necessarily reproduces the level of his best stretch with Atlanta.

That said, it would also be worth analyzing his injury history, since Mahle underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023 and has had other physical problems since then. If he is healthy, he could provide the ability to get strikeouts and a repertoire combination that can work better when he attacks the strike zone. So, for the Royals, a good deal could also be in the range of $30-32 million over a couple of seasons.

David Peterson, LHP

Diamond Centric Free Agent Ranking: 39

I like the idea of adding Peterson because he would strengthen the left-handed side of the Royals’ rotation, providing experience and a profile that would fit very well in the middle and back end of the starting group. Peterson once again demonstrated his ability to generate ground balls and avoid hard contact, especially with his low home run rates allowed, but it was not until he arrived in Chicago that he managed to make the big leap in 2026. Peterson improved from the 35th to the 54th percentile in reducing his opponents’ contact when he pitched in the strike zone and reduced his Hard Hit% rate from 46.2% to 37.2%.

If Peterson manages to maintain the improvements he had in Chicago in 2026 with his command when his fastball improved from -4.2 Run Value between 2024 and 2025 to 3.5 this year, and his slider once again became one of the main weapons in his arsenal, he could have a good impact on the Royals’ rotation. Steamer’s projection for 2027 estimates that he will pitch 152 innings, a 3.92 ERA, a 4.06 FIP, and 2.0 fWAR, so a one-year offer would make sense, since Peterson could be within reach for around $12 million, according to the Blueprint tool’s prediction.

Dustin May, RHP

Diamond Centric Free Agent Ranking: 55

May missed 2024 while recovering from a second Tommy John surgery, and in 2025 he managed to return to the Major Leagues and, although he managed to pitch 132 ⅓ innings, which represented his personal record at that time, his results were deficient, and he finished with a 4.53 xFIP. In theory, he was still a starting pitcher with the same problems getting enough whiffs, avoiding contact, and limiting home runs allowed, in addition to going through inconsistencies with his control.

However, May had some interesting advances in 2026, starting with making 31 starts and pitching 145 ⅔ innings, a personal record for his career, with 144 strikeouts, a 3.96 xFIP, and 0.86 HR/9, the lowest rate of his career in seasons with at least 50 innings. Added to this is one of his main advances, since his fastball velocity increased from the 58th percentile in 2025 to the 85th in 2026. He increased his strikeout rate, and they once again showed signs of progress: decreased walks and increased his Chase% from the 18th to the 49th percentile, and went from the 12th to the 32nd in Whiff%.

May’s cutter was his best pitch, making a jump from -4 Run Value in 2025 to +6 this year, placing it in the 92nd percentile in the league, but he also had improvements with his sinker (+1 RV). He will still have to work on his breaking pitches and changeup, since they finished with an RV below the league average, which influenced him finishing with a 6.06 xERA after moving to the Milwaukee Brewers at the trade deadline, well above the 3.94 xERA he recorded with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Even so, May could work as an alternative for Kansas City’s rotation, and Steamer’s projections estimate that he will pitch 146 innings in 2027, with a 4.13 ERA, a 4.06 xFIP and 2.0 fWAR. Because of the durability May has shown, a contract for a couple of seasons and $30 million represents a reasonable commitment for the Royals, who are in need of adding arms capable of carrying the workload and providing depth to the starting rotation.

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