Four Free-Agent Starters Who Can Bring Stability To The Royals Rotation

[Yirsandy Rodríguez]

Regardless of the injuries, the worst problem the Kansas City Royals’ starting rotation faced in 2026 was the lack of stability. Injuries took pitchers like Cole Ragans, Stephen Kolek, and Luinder Avila out of action, players who were expected to contribute enough to sustain the rotation over the long term. That did not happen, and the disaster unfolded again to the point that the Royals had to use 13 different starting pitchers for the second consecutive year. The difference was that only three of them managed to pitch at least 100 innings: Michael Wacha (200 ⅔ innings), Seth Lugo (172 ⅓), and Noah Cameron (170 ⅓).

They carried the main weight of the rotation, accumulating 64% of the innings, and that will be the main reason why the Royals will need to look for at least a couple of arms to strengthen their starting staff. The last time Kansas City went through a similar situation was in 2023, when it had just three pitchers who were able to record 100 or more innings, although on that occasion it was forced to use 23 different starters.

The season that could represent the standard of success the Royals need to repeat was 2024, when they had just nine starters who combined to pitch 911 innings, the highest total accumulated over the last six seasons. Five of them exceeded 100 innings and accumulated a combined 17.3 fWAR, with a 3.90 xFIP and 76 quality starts. They were led by Cole Ragans (5.0 fWAR), the best version of Seth Lugo’s career (4.8), Michael Wacha (3.4), and Brady Singer (2.6).

Although his xFIP has increased slightly every year since that 2024 season, Wacha has been the only consistent pitcher over these last two seasons, so Ragans’ injury history and Lugo’s decline in performance continue to raise questions about the future.

That said, let’s analyze the four ideal arms that could strengthen the Royals’ starting rotation, most of them as attainable options in the free-agent market.

Nick Martinez, RHP

DiamondCentric Free Agent Ranking: #13

Martinez is coming off a very productive 2026 season, after pitching 180 innings and finishing with a 3.10 ERA, a 3.96 FIP, and 2.9 fWAR, numbers that led him to become one of the main pillars of the Tampa Bay Rays’ starting rotation.

His profile could provide experience, durability, command, and the ability to absorb a significant number of innings, precisely the biggest shortcoming the Royals’ starters have faced over the last three seasons. Martinez does not rely on a high strikeout rate -- his K% was 15.1% and finished in the 4th percentile in the league, but his command compensated for his limited ability to generate swings and misses frequently. In addition, he finished in the 92nd percentile in Pitching, with a +17 Run Value, the third-best among pitchers available in the free-agent market, surpassed only by Tarik Skubal (23) and Michael King (19).

Of course, uncertainty always remains about how much of his great 2026 season he will be able to repeat in the future, as he will turn 36 in 2027, something that will probably limit the possibility of getting a long-term contract. The Blueprint tool predicts that Martinez could cost around $28 million for a couple of seasons.

Foster Griffin, LHP

DiamondCentric Free Agent Ranking: #16

Griffin’s story is well known to the Royals, as he began his career by making his debut with them at 24 years old during the difficult 2020 season, shortened by the pandemic. He pitched just one and two-thirds innings, faced six batters, did not allow any hits, and ended up getting the win. The following year, Griffin was unable to pitch after undergoing Tommy John surgery for a tear in the ligament of his left elbow, so he did not have an opportunity to return until 2022. However, he faced problems as a reliever that led him to be left out of the organization’s plans. Griffin did not give up, and in 2023 he preferred to go to Japan rather than continue pitching in the Minor Leagues. He signed a contract with the Yomiuri Giants, worked hard, and managed to stabilize himself after earning a spot as a starter. During that process, he made an interesting change to his repertoire, adding three key pitches: the sinker, a sweeper, and a splitter. That transformation made him a pitcher less vulnerable to hard contact and led him to finish with a 2.57 ERA over three seasons in the NPB.

The dominance he experienced in Japan opened the door for Griffin to return to MLB in 2026 with the Washington Nationals. He finished with a surprising 12-3 record and a 3.06 ERA in his first 22 starts, before being traded to the Cleveland Guardians at the trade deadline. There are two key things about Griffin that I loved and that I believe would fit perfectly as a solution to the Royals’ problems: his ability to provide deep starts and a very good 3.76 xFIP, considering that he does not base his dominance on generating swings and misses or on a high strikeout rate.

Griffin has the ability to throw strikes in his favor, with great command that allows him to stay in the zone and generate ground balls at a high frequency. That formula led him to secure at least five innings in 27 of his 31 starts, and he completed at least six in 15 of them. In 2026, his fastball finished in the 95th percentile -- the +16 Run Value is the best among left-handed starters currently available in free agency -- and his offspeed in the 78th. However, what is most surprising is the combination of some of his 2026 statistics, which were not far from those recorded by high-impact pitchers like Tarik Skubal. Griffin allowed a 37.0% Hard Hit%, a 3.2% home run rate, and a 6.2% BB%, while Skubal allowed a 34.8% Hard Hit%, 2.3% HR%, and had a 4.4% BB rate.

The big difference was in strikeouts and in the ability of an elite pitcher like Skubal to prevent runs. That is why I believe that if Griffin pitches for a team with a better defense like the Royals, his expected statistics could take an interesting turn. For much of the season, that was a problem when he pitched for the Nationals, who finished with -9 Fielding Run Value and -15 in Range in 2026. When he pitched for the Guardians, some of those deficiencies were resolved, and the best example could be seen in the postseason, when Griffin finished with a 3.48 ERA in 10 ⅓ innings, with 15 strikeouts, no walks, and just four runs allowed.

I think a contract of $32-35 million for a couple of seasons would be fine for the Royals, assuming Griffin will be on trial in his second year back in MLB. If he maintains his consistency, perhaps the door could open to exploring a third year.

Michael Soroka, RHP

Diamond Centric Free Agent Ranking: #18

Let’s start with what could generate the biggest concerns among teams interested in Soroka, who had a great bounce-back season in 2026. The main concern is his history, as Soroka accumulated just 215 1/3 innings between 2020 and 2025. That is why his 116-inning season in 2026 has been his biggest workload since his breakout season at 21 years old, when he recorded 4.0 fWAR and pitched 174 2/3 innings with the Atlanta Braves in 2019. Therefore, it is clear that any offer for Soroka should take that history into account, although that does not take away from the value of his projections and what he has once again shown as a starter.

Soroka finished in the 91st percentile in Pitching in 2026, and his changeup was the only pitch that could not exceed the 50th percentile. Although his Whiff% finished in the 32nd percentile and we know how important it is to avoid contact, he reached the 84th percentile in Chase% and managed to avoid some hard contact by finishing in the 81st percentile in Hard Hit%. That said, what could concern me the most is Soroka’s projected 4.13 xFIP for 2027, especially if he loses a little more control over contact. Although his strikeout rate dropped from 9.49 K/9 to 8.84 this year, Soroka achieved a better balance between his walk and home run rates, landing close to the 2019 standards with just 2.25 BB/9 and 0.78 HR/9.

For Kansas City, he could be an interesting bet through a two-year contract worth between $25-28 million, with an AAV of around $13 million. A one-year offer close to $15 million would also make sense if the market does not guarantee him multiple years.

Casey Mize, RHP

Diamond Centric Free Agent Ranking: #34

After a dominant start that took him to his first All-Star Game with the Detroit Tigers in the first half of the season, Mize collapsed in the second half after arriving in San Diego at the trade deadline. The improvements in his command, the increase in his strikeout rate, and the reduction in walks fell apart along with the dominance he had shown in his first 16 starts, when he recorded a 2.70 ERA and a 3.76 xFIP in 86 ⅔ innings. With the Padres, Mize made his debut allowing eight runs in 3 ⅓ innings on August 5 against the Diamondbacks in Arizona.

He then pitched two consecutive quality starts, which included six scoreless innings in a 5-0 Padres victory in Cleveland. However, in his next seven starts, he was punished mercilessly, recording an 8.49 FIP in 29 ⅓ innings. Part of that disaster was not worse because the bullpen and offense managed to rescue four of those seven inconsistent starts, in which Mize ended up allowing 11 home runs, practically the same number of strikeouts he recorded.

METRIC	DETROIT	PERCENTILE	SAN DIEGO	PERCENTILE	PERCENTILE
xwOBA Allowed	0.274	88	0.366	23	65
K%	24.9%	74	12.0%	13	61
BB%	5.6%	86	9.1%	53	33
Whiff%	27.8%	74	14.8%	9	65
Z-Contact%	80.2%	81	91.8%	10	71
Barrel%	5.9%	65	9.9%	21	44
Hard-Hit%	36.0%	74	44.4%	27	47
Average Exit Velocity	87.9 mph	54	89.7 mph	25	29

As you can see in this table, the improvements in run prevention, contact control, and the generation of swings and misses completely fell apart with the Padres. Mize went from the 88th to the 23rd percentile in xwOBA allowed, dropped 71 percentiles in contact control within the strike zone, while his strikeout rate plummeted by almost 50% and his walk and Barrel% rates grew by more than 60%.

So the concern about which version of Mize we will see in 2027 is inevitable. Another factor that creates uncertainty heading into free agency is his injury history. Mize underwent Tommy John surgery that practically made him miss 2022 and 2023, and he has accumulated five consecutive seasons with time on the injured list. In 2026, he dealt with adductor discomfort and finished the season with the Padres on the injured list due to a right ankle sprain, an injury he suffered in August and that limited him again during the final month of the season.

According to FanGraphs, Mize is projected to pitch 140 innings with a 4.40 xFIP and 1.7 fWAR in 2027, a performance that would fall below his version with Detroit, where he accumulated 2.9 fWAR before the trade to San Diego, but that offers a very different recovery outlook from the one left by his terrible stint with the Padres. Even so, for Kansas City, he could be a great acquisition for the middle of the rotation and, according to the Blueprint tool, could be an attainable option for around $14 million. That is why an offer of between $28-30 million for a couple of seasons would not be bad at all.

Image courtesy of Benny Sieu-Imagn Images / Wednesday, September 2, 2026.

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