Looking Ahead to 2027: Three Thoughts On The Royals’ Pitching

Well, the Kansas City Royals’ season has come to an end, and the feeling the season left us with was not the best. The team fell out of the race too early, the injuries were devastating, and they were never prepared to recover. Since it is never too early to think about next season, I have been reflecting on some ideas that open different expectations about how the Royals could improve their pitching, especially to avoid the breakdowns of a bullpen that has been the worst in the league this year. Here are three thoughts to reflect on.

Noah Cameron has shown that he will be key within the 2027 core

If injuries had not hit him, the left-hander Cole Ragans was supposed to be the left-handed arm and ace of the Kansas City Royals’ rotation over these last two seasons. Ragans led the team with 9.5 fWAR between 2023 and 2025, but he has been able to make only 21 starts over the last two seasons. Instead, the Royals have had the contribution of Noah Cameron, who arrived in the league on April 30 of last year and, since then, has a 18-15 record, a 4.10 xERA, and has recorded 4.6 fWAR in 55 starts. The only Royals pitcher with more fWAR is Michael Wacha, who has accumulated 6.4 over that span. Last year, Cameron was a revelation, but his 2026 season has shown that he can already be considered part of the team’s main rotation core. And I still feel he can be much better.

Last year, Cameron pitched to a 4.10 xFIP, and this year he has recorded 4.16. However, with such a similar profile, this year he had a 4.11 ERA, 1.12 runs above last year’s 2.99 ERA. Part of the difference has been in his ability to leave runners on base: his LOB% fell from 84% to 70.2%, while his BABIP rose from .241 to .276. Either way, Cameron’s fWAR has been better this year at 2.7, representing almost 59% of his career fWAR so far.

Cameron has not stood out for finding dominance through the velocity of his fastball, and part of his biggest problems came after adding a sinker that did not give him results. Opponents have hit .424 against him this year, making it the only pitch in his entire repertoire that has been crushed. Even so, what catches my attention most about Cameron is his ability to move through the game and challenge hitters.

His durability has been demonstrated throughout the year, recording at least five innings in 27 of his 31 starts. But where Cameron rises up, and I think it is the type of situation that defines him, is after facing the batting order for the second time. The second time through, he has allowed 13 of his 21 home runs, and opponents are slugging .543 in 270 plate appearances. But when he faces the order for the third time, the story changes and, often, Cameron has been able to make adjustments and finish off his opponents, reducing the slugging to .364 and recording his highest K-BB% rate at 19.2%.

In any of the Royals’ future plans, his presence on the mound will be key, and once Ragans returns, the rotation could recover the power of the left-handed profile they have had in recent seasons.

Daniel Lynch IV should return to reinforce the bullpen

There isn't much to discuss here. Being honest, I never liked the move of Daniel Lynch IV to the starting rotation. The Royals were not competing for anything, and they did not have the urgency to do it for almost the entire second half of the season. In just nine starts, Lynch IV has recorded 74% of the innings he pitched in his first 46 appearances as a reliever this year, and his ERA has jumped from 1.96 to 7.01. If this was a test, I think it is clear that it has been enough. Without the contribution of Lynch IV, who recorded 0.8 fWAR as a reliever, the Royals’ bullpen combined for –1.5 fWAR, while his work as a starter has been the worst of the entire rotation at –0.3. The best conclusion the Royals have been able to draw from this is that, after Lynch IV’s departure, opportunities opened up for several pitchers in the bullpen, with some good performances from Connor Thomas, Anthony Gose, José Cuas and Nate Pearson, who have combined for 1.3 fWAR since August 4.

If Carlos Estévez does not return, who closes?

It would be sensible for the Royals not to risk having Carlos Estévez in their plans, after a season lost to physical problems and shoulder surgery that ended his chances of returning in 2026. The Royals have a $13 million option for 2027, but it is likely that they will end up declining it and paying the $2 million buyout. If so, they would leave room to fill a role that Estévez occupied during 2025, when he led MLB with 42 saves.

We have talked a lot about how vulnerable the Royals’ relief pitching has been, but the biggest problems have not really been ineffectiveness in save opportunities. Kansas City ranks 10th in MLB in save percentage at 59%, falling from third place last year (70%) when Estévez was healthy. What has been a real problem is the 41% of inherited runners who have scored, the worst in the American League and behind only the St. Louis Cardinals (59%) in all of the Majors.

So, the Royals need to find effective arms that can maintain control of leads so that the game can reach the decisive innings with more save opportunities. Now, as for who would be the next closer if Estévez does not continue with the team, the answer could be within the organization. The Royals have used Steven Cruz (eight saves), Nate Pearson (3) and Alex Lange (2) in the closer role during the second half of the season, a stretch in which the Royals had the worst bullpen in the league with –0.5 fWAR.

If it is about talent, Cruz has all the potential to solve the ninth inning. This year, his fastball has been at its highest average velocity at 98.5 mph and, even so, eight of the 14 home runs he has allowed have come against his fastball. His Location+ has improved to 97, above his career mark of 93. Cruz has a cutter and a slider that continue to improve, so if he can make adjustments, he could become a key reliever for 2027, especially if the Royals end up giving him the opportunity to close.

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