Is Cole Ragans Finally Back to Form?

It's been a rough start for Cole Ragans to begin the 2026 season, and that's putting it kindly.

After posting a 4.67 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in just 13 starts and 61.2 IP, the 28-year-old Royals lefty was determined to show that he was not just healthy, but could once again show the profile that made him a Cy Young finalist in 2024 (he finished 4th in AL Cy Young voting). 

Overall, this season, the results haven't quite been there for Ragans. In six starts and 27 IP, he has a 5.00 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 6.03 FIP, and 13% K-BB%. He's still striking out batters at a good clip (28.7% K%), but his walk rate has been brutal (15.7% BB%). In addition, he has struggled with hard contact allowed, as illustrated by his Statcast percentiles via TJ Stats, as shown below. 

In addition to ranking in the 2nd percentile in BB%, he also ranks in the 5th percentile in barrel rate allowed and 21st in groundball rate. While the whiffs (94th percentile), strikeouts (88th percentile K%), and strike-generating (80th percentile CSW%) have been strong, hitters have hit the ball hard and in the air when they've made contact, and that's not a recipe for success. 

However, despite the slow start, Ragans finally showed signs of life on Saturday in the Royals' 12-1 victory over the Angels. 

In six innings of work, Ragans struck out 11, allowed only five hits, one run, and had no walks. The lone hit was a home run by Jo Adell. However, beyond the Adell home run, the Angels struggled against Ragans, as evidenced by not just the strikeouts, but the 27 whiffs Ragans induced, which tied a career-high.

For the Royals to get back into the postseason race, especially in the AL Central, they will need a healthy and locked-in Ragans for the remainder of the season. Was Saturday's start a step in the right direction? Or was it an outlier against an Angels team that has struggled with offensive consistency this season? (They rank 4th in home runs and 8th in runs scored, but 27th in batting average.)

The Four-Seamer Was in Full Force Against the Angels

When looking at Ragans' performance, I figured it would be good to look at his TJ Stuff+ summary from Saturday's game. Here's what it looked like below.

There's a lot to like from this Ragans TJ Stuff+ summary. 

First off, the stuff looked amazing from Ragans in his most recent outing. Not only did he post a 104 overall TJ Stuff+, but all four of his pitches had TJ Stuff+ over 100 and grades over 50 (three over 60). As a result, he not only generated a ton of whiffs (46.6% whiff rate) but also chases (40.8%). The chase rate has been a struggle for him this year, as his 27% O-Swing% ranks in the 23rd percentile. Thus, to see some improvement in this area on Saturday was encouraging.

However, what stuck out most from this pitching performance was that Ragans relied heavily on the four-seamer, and it worked for him. It was a "bully ball" performance in which he challenged Angels hitters with his four-seamer, dared them to hit it, and simply overwhelmed them with the offering for six innings.

Ragans not only threw the four-seamer 53.5% of the time, but he threw it in the zone a lot (54.7%) and generated a lot of whiffs with it, as evidenced by his 51.4% whiff rate on the four-seamer. What's even more impressive is that he produced a lot of whiffs and strikes in the zone, as illustrated in his four-seam pitch description chart via Savant.

It's interesting to see that Ragans wasn't particularly pinpoint with his four-seamer command on Saturday.

While he definitely had an approach to locate it up, he also left a lot of four-seamers in the strike zone, especially in areas where they could've been belted for base hits. However, Ragans' "flood the zone" approach with the four-seamer seemed to be productive, as illustrated by not just his high whiff and chase rates, but solid .351 xwOBACON allowed on the pitch. That showed that Ragans' four-seamer had the Angels off balance. They not only whiffed on the pitch but also didn't make good contact when they connected.

The latter aspect is something that we haven't seen much from Ragans this year with his four-seamer. That is demonstrated in the four-seam heatmap below from this year, via TJ Stats. 

For the year, Ragans is actually producing strong whiff rates against lefties (22.5%) and righties (34.6%), as well as excellent CSW rates against lefties (29.6%) and righties (32.1%). That said, he has been a bit subpar in chase against both sides of the plate, with a 24% O-Swing% against lefties and 25.9% O-Swing% against righties. His xwOBACON marks are even worse, with a .482 xwOBACON allowed against lefties and .396 xwOBACON against righties. 

For comparison, let's look at his four-seamer heatmap data from 2025.

His four-seam command was less erratic a season ago, as illustrated by the heatmap that is centered around the upper edges of the strike zone against both lefties and righties. He's generating better CSW and whiff rates against lefties this year than in 2025, but lefties are hitting the four-seamer much better. Conversely, the CSW and whiff rates against righties with the four-seamer are around the same, but Ragans is doing a better job limiting hard contact this year than a season ago (.517 xwOBACON). 

When Ragans is able to flood the strike zone with the four-seamer, positive results have followed this year. When looking at his TJ Stuff+ summary from his start against the Yankees, the zone rate was far lower on the four-seamer than the one he showed against the Angels.

Against the Yankees, Ragans had a 104 TJ Stuff+ on the four-seamer, but his zone rate was 42.6%. That was 12.1% worse than his four-seam zone rate against the Angels. Hence, while Ragans was able to generate decent whiffs with the four-seamer (27.3%), the lack of control and command with the four-seamer resulted in a low amount of chase (22.9%) and a lot of walks (eight) as a result.

I would expect that Ragans will make it a priority in his upcoming starts to ensure that he's flooding the strike zone with his four-seamer. 

Better Extension on the Knuckle Curve?

The knuckle curve has been an interesting breaking offering this season for Ragans. He utilizes it (8.9% usage) more than his slider (14%). That said, he didn't throw the slider AT ALL in his last start and threw the curveball 12.1% against the Angels. That is eight percent higher than his knuckle curve usage against the Yankees. 

What's interesting about the pitch is that it isn't necessarily a "plus" pitch by any means. It's one of his lowest-rated pitches on a TJ Stuff+ end, as seen below via his TJ Stuff+ season summary for the season.

Ragans' knuckle curve has a 100 TJ Stuff+ and 45 grade with a 16% chase rate, 16.7% whiff rate, and 1.076 xwOBACON allowed. Even against the Angels, he had only a 25 percent chase and whiff rate, as well as a 2.032 xwOBACON allowed. In fact, his home run allowed to Adell came on a poorly commanded knuckle curve. 

Still, the knuckle curve seems to be an offering that can be useful when commanded effectively. Last year, Ragans generated a 32.4% whiff rate, 22.2% put-away rate, and .284 xwOBA allowed on the knuckle curve. Here's how it looked last season, based on his TJ Stats heatmap data. 

Here's Ragans last May, inducing a strikeout of Trevor Story on a knuckle curve in an 0-2 count.

 

This year, the metrics on his knuckle curve have trended in the wrong direction.

His knuckle curve is generating a 16.7% whiff rate, a 0.0% put-away rate, and a 1.093 xwOBA. Not only is Ragans' knuckle curve not generating the strikes needed, but it's also getting mashed. In addition to Addell's home run, Aaron Judge also smoked a home run off Ragans on a first-pitch knuckle curve that was located poorly as well. 

 

Judge absolutely jumped on it and launched it over the center field wall. Thus, one has to ask the question: How is Ragans locating his knuckle curve this year? 

Based on the heatmap data below, it hasn't been good, as he's been leaving it far too often in the middle of the zone.

He's locating it in a similar and ideal area to lefties, though he's only thrown it 3.7% of the time against southpaw hitters. Against righties, the CSW% is strong at 32.4%, but he has only generated a 16.7% whiff rate, 20% O-Swing%, and is allowing a 1.076 xwOBACON with the curve.

Thus, the command of the curve has been poor this year, especially against righties. What could be contributing to that?

Extension could be the difference between this year and last. 

For those unfamiliar with extension, it is how far off the mound, in feet, a pitcher releases the pitch. It is important for the following reasons, per Google's AI overview:

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  • Higher Perceived Velocity: A longer extension (average is about 6.3 feet in MLB) makes a 93 mph fastball appear as if it is 96 mph 
  • Reduced Reaction Time: By releasing the ball closer, the hitter has less time to make a decision 
  • Improved Sequencing: Proper forward trunk tilt and arm extension optimize the kinetic chain, creating a more efficient, powerful delivery 
  • Consistency: Better extension helps with a more consistent pitch release, making it harder for batters to recognize the pitch 

   

Ragans' extension this year on the knuckle curve is 5.9 feet, which is 0.2 feet less than his extension on the pitch a season ago. While that seems like a minute difference, that subtle change in extension could be why he's not locating the knuckle curve down like he wants, especially against righties. 

That said, his extension has been much better in recent starts, especially against the Angels, which had a 6.0 mark. Furthermore, he's been trending up in extension with each start after an initial decline, as illustrated in his extension rolling chart via Savant.

Thus, with better extension, Ragans may develop a better feel for the knuckle curve. If that happens, not only will he miss less in the middle of the zone, but he will also generate more swing-and-miss on the pitch, something he did in 2025 and 2024 with the breaking offering.

Final Thoughts On Ragans

It's just one start, but on Saturday, Ragans demonstrated why he has been the Royals' Opening Day starter for the last three years. When his command and velocity are clicking, as they were on Saturday, there's not a better starting pitcher in the Royals' rotation, which says something considering this starting pitching staff ranks sixth in ERA and ninth in WHIP (though that may go up after Seth Lugo's rough outing on Sunday). 

For Ragans to build on this promising start, he will need to focus on two things: his four-seam command and knuckle curve extension.

The four-seamer has all the characteristics of a premier pitch, and he throws it more than enough (53.6% usage). However, when he's missing on the edges or up, hitters don't chase, which forces him to rely on other pitches that aren't as effective or as impressive. On Saturday, he didn't worry about being too fine with the pitch. He just threw it hard and in the zone, and the approach paid off.

In terms of the extension, it's obvious that his decline in extension on the knuckle curve is negatively affecting his command on the pitch. When he got back to his normal knuckle curve extension, the results were much better. A 0.1 foot difference in knuckle curve extension from the Yankees to the Angels start resulted in a three-point improvement in TJ Stuff+ and 25% increase in chase and whiff rate. Thus, keeping a consistent extension on his knuckle curve should be a priority for Ragans in order to improve his knuckle curve command, which hasn't been good this year. Ragans can't gain better command of the curve if the extension isn't there.

If those two things happen, Ragans will once again look like his "ace" self, regardless of the competition. 

Hopefully, he can continue to make progress in those two areas in his next scheduled start in Seattle, which profiles more as a pitcher's park, and against a Mariners lineup that is dangerous but has been inconsistent to begin 2026 (they rank 21st in average, 20th in runs scored, and 15th in home runs).