Could the Cubs' Matt Shaw Be a Royals Trade Target?

The Cubs have made some big splashes this offseason that have gotten the attention of baseball fans everywhere, including Royals ones.

First, they acquired pitcher Edward Cabrera from the Marlins in exchange for their No. 1 prospect (Owen Caissie), No. 11 prospect (Cristian Hernandez), and an 18-year-old infielder who played in the Complex League last year (Edgardo De Leon). 

Then, Cubs President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer signed third baseman Alex Bregman last weekend to a five-year, $175 million deal. The deal is one of the biggest in franchise history and include no-opt outs over the duration of the contract, a significant commitment to a player who will be 32 during the 2026 season. 

The Bregman deal was unexpected (he seemed more tied to the Red Sox and even the Diamondbacks earlier in the offseason), and it has also put their infield in flux. With the arrival of Bregman, incumbent third baseman Matt Shaw has been moved off the starting position for now (according to Roster Resource). However, the Cubs have a decision to make about second baseman Nico Hoerner, who will be a free agent after 2026 and could be tough to retain long-term. Already, it's been reported that many clubs have inquired about Hoerner, including the San Francisco Giants and the New York Yankees.

That said, trading Hoerner would be a tough move for a Cubs team that's looking to not just return to the postseason, but topple the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central division. Hoerner is one of the top defensive second basemen in the game, has an excellent plate approach (109 wRC+; 0.80 BB/K ratio), and accumulated a 4.8 fWAR last year and has a career 20 fWAR in 704 games, according to Fangraphs. At 28 years old, the Cubs should be looking to extend Hoerner, not trade him away.

Unfortunately, that makes Shaw the odd man out, unless they are content using him as a super-utility player. While that's not a bad strategy for 2026, Chicago could leverage Shaw's situation and former top prospect value in a trade that could net the Cubs some present and long-term assets. 

The Royals are one of those teams that could be the ideal trade partners with the Cubs, especially with the holes they have right now in the lineup and infield for 2026 and beyond. 

Why Shaw Would Make Sense for Kansas City

Matt Trueblood of North Side Baseball published an article on Wednesday on how the Royals are a trade suitor with whom Chicago could work on a possible Shaw deal. 

According to Trueblood, the Cubs and Royals would make sense as trade partners given their mutual interest in each other's players, including Shaw (the Royals were rumored to be interested in drafting him at No. 8 in the 2023 MLB Draft, but they selected prep catcher Blake Mitchell instead). Here's a snippet from Trueblood's piece that illustrates why the Royals would be interested in Shaw for 2026 and beyond.

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One team stands out as the top candidate to match up with the Cubs on a trade for Shaw: the Kansas City Royals. They need help at second base, where Jonathan India is penciled in for this season. India batted .233/.323/.346 in 2025, struggling mightily after an early-season plunking that briefly sidelined him with a concussion. Though only entering his age-29 season, India is aging rapidly at the plate, and he's barely a viable defender at second base. Shaw projects to hit .240/.310/.408 this year, according to early and simple Marcel projections. India projects to hit .242/.335/.381, with his superior on-base skills making up for less slugging, but Shaw is a far better defender and baserunner. 

In addition to India, the Royals also trotted Michael Massey out at second base in 2025 to lackluster results. Massey posted a 57 wRC+ and -0.4 fWAR in 277 plate appearances last season. India was only a shade better than his 27-year-old counterpart last year. The former Red posted an 89 wRC+ and -0.3 fWAR, with most of his value weighed down by mediocre baserunning (-2.6 BsR) and poor defense (-11.8 Def).

Shaw was inconsistent as a rookie, but he still would be a considerable upgrade over Massey and India in 2026. The 24-year-old Maryland product hit 13 home runs, stole 17 bases, scored 57 runs, posted a 93 wRC+, and accumulated a 1.5 fWAR in 437 plate appearances. The exit-velocity and batted-ball metrics were questionable from Shaw last year, but he showed some promise in his plate discipline metrics, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary profile below.

Now, Shaw isn't as elite in plate discipline, especially compared to India. The former Florida Gator had an exit velocity and hard-hit profile similar to show, but India ranked in the upper percentiles in O-Swing%, K%, Z-Contact%, and Whiff%, as demonstrated in his own TJ Stats summary.

In terms of pure hitting profile, India is a little better than Shaw. However, India is also 4 years older, will be a free agent after 2026, and lags significantly behind Shaw in defensive value (India posted a -6 OAA, while Shaw posted a -1 OAA last season). Thus, the Royals would benefit from having Shaw as the regular second baseman, with Massey as a backup who could give Shaw a spell (and see some time in the outfield, since Massey is a much better defensive outfielder than India). 

Shaw also should transition well offensively to Kauffman Stadium, especially with the modified dimensions. Even with the old dimensions, the Cubs infielder would have had 12 xHR at the K last season, which is only one fewer than his total 2025 mark. His spray chart also shows a pull-heavy approach that would lead to many extra base hits, especially at home in Kansas City. 

Lastly, the Royals would have a controllable, affordable asset in Shaw who could help them with salary stability over the next couple of seasons. Shaw is not arbitration-eligible until 2028, and he won't be a free agent until 2032. That kind of long-term control is valuable, especially for a small-market team like the Royals, which has to be judicious with its spending each offseason. 

What Would the Royals Give Up for Shaw?

According to Trueblood, the Cubs could be interested in both long-term and short-term assets. In terms of the former, the Cubs could benefit by beefing up their farm system a bit, especially after the lower levels, after the Cabrera trade.

Trueblood points out recent draft picks Sean Gamble and Josh Hammond as possible options, especially since it was reported that the Cubs were interested in selecting them in last year's draft. 

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Kansas City also has interesting pieces to offer in trade. The Cubs were interested in both of the Royals' first-round picks last summer, had they slid into the second round. Outfielder Sean Gamble and shortstop Josh Hammond were both plucked from the high-school ranks, and neither will be ready for the majors any time in the next two years, but the Cubs' system needs better depth, and those guys are the caliber of prospect available in a deal like this one, where the team trading them is getting a long-term, big-league piece, but not a star.

It's hard to imagine the Royals parting with either of those two prospects, especially after just drafting them. Still, as prep prospects, they carry a bit of risk, especially compared to most college players who have lower ceilings but higher floors. If it means that Kansas City could get a young, budding player like Shaw (at a position where there's not a lot of great organizational depth), then the Royals could be convinced to let go of one of those promising recently drafted teenagers.

Another prospect who could be traded is Mitchell, our No. 2 in the system. He had a rough 2025 (due to a hand injury) but had a strong Arizona Fall League campaign and could be the Cubs' catcher of the future if the chips fall right. 

Trueblood also mentions that some pieces that could affect the Cubs' MLB roster could also be desired. That includes Nick Loftin, a utility player who seems a bit blocked or out of favor with the Royals, and Kris Bubic, who has long been liked by the Cubs' coaching staff, according to the article. 

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Utility man Loftin is the kind of bench piece Chicago would need if they jettisoned Shaw, but he has limited value because he's not a candidate to play everyday for a contender. Starter Bubic, in whom the Cubs had interest last summer before his elbow began barking and the Royals pulled him off the trade market, has just one year of team control remaining, but his pitch mix appeals to the Cubs' coaching and analytics staff.

Loftin should be an easy one to deal away from the Royals' perspective, especially since he has failed to gain hold of the "utility" position the past couple of seasons. While he remains unsigned, it wouldn't be surprising to see Kansas City bring back Adam Frazier on a one-year deal for 2026. That would only guarantee Loftin another long stint in Omaha. With the Cubs, he could at least get an opportunity to prove that he belongs on an MLB roster.

As for Bubic, a couple of months ago, he may have made sense for the Cubs. However, their rotation is looking deep after the acquisition of Cabrera.

Roster Resource projects Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon to be the No. 4 and 5 starters in the rotation, and talented but inconsistent pitchers Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks are slated to begin the season in Triple-A Iowa. That said, Imanaga regressed a bit last year (4.86 FIP) and could be due for more based on how his 2025 ended (4.70 ERA in the second half). Taillon pitched under 129.1 IP, nearly 36 fewer innings than his mark in 2024. Taillon also had a mediocre FIP at 4.65, which could make him another regression candidate in 2026. 

Bubic has struggled to accumulate innings, but he's been effective when healthy. Thus, the Cubs could perhaps slow-play him into the rotation, initially in a hybrid role. If Imanaga or Taillon struggle or go down, the Stanford lefty can fill in and be productive. His TJ Stats Statcast summary profile showed that he not only has excellent stuff, but a strong ability to generate strikeouts and whiffs and limit hard contact.

The only issue with Bubic is that he'll be a free agent after 2026. Thus, if the Royals want to get Shaw, they may need to include a top prospect like Gamble, Hammond, or Mitchell. Should JJ Picollo not be willing to do that, it may be Bubic, Loftin, and another asset, whether a mid-level prospect or player (India would be the ideal, but his $8 million deal may be too much for the Cubs to take on). 

Is a Shaw to Kansas City Deal Realistic?

Shaw certainly would be an intriguing player, especially with his home run and stolen base upside. With another year of at-bats, it's easy to see Shaw develop into a 20-20 HR-SB player.

That said, projections are a bit torn on his outlook for the upcoming season. Below are the ones from Steamer, the BAT X, and OOPSY.

• Steamer: .161 ISO, .317 wOBA, 105 wRC+
• The BAT X: .127 ISO, .290 wOBA, 86 wRC+
• OOPSY: .167 ISO, .318 wOBA, 105 wRC+

Steamer and OOPSY are optimistic about Shaw's outlook for 2026. The BAT X is not, and by a considerable margin, as illustrated by the 19-point difference in wOBA. While Shaw is talented, he may not be a sure thing in the upcoming season by any stretch. While India's ceiling isn't as high as Shaw's, at least the Royals know what to relatively expect (unless India continues his freefall for a second-straight season, like Hunter Renfroe from 2023 to 2024). 

Furthermore, the likely ask from the Cubs for a player of Shaw's pedigree probably would be just too high for Kansas City.

The Royals want to get better from now until Opening Day. While Shaw would help them do so, especially at the keystone, it would require the Royals to part ways with not only Bubic (not that big a deal) and a talented prospect. The latter is a much bigger concern, especially since Picollo and Scouting Director Brian Bridges have worked hard to build up the system since the 2024 MLB Draft. Trading from their top prospect capital now would be foolish, especially since Shaw still has some development to do. Trading a prospect for a player like Jarren Duran or Brendan Donovan is one thing, especially since they're so established. Shaw isn't anywhere close to that level just yet. 

Nonetheless, while Shaw's move to Kansas City may not be realistic, it's an interesting proposal, and Shaw's stock will certainly be worth watching.  He could be a buy-low candidate at the Trade Deadline if he's still with the Cubs and not getting much playing time behind Bregman and Hoerner.

If India is not getting the job done by then, the Royals could pounce and be more willing to deal from their prospect capital midseason for Shaw.