Royals Avoid Arbitration With James McArthur

One of the Royals' 13 arbitration-eligible cases this offseason became clearer on Thursday. The Royals announced on social media that they had reached an agreement with reliever James McArthur, and Anne Rogers followed up by confirming that the deal would be for $810,000, about $10,000 higher than his projected amount on MLB Trade Rumors. 

As Rogers mentioned, McArthur didn't pitch all of last season due to elbow surgery and subsequent recovery, which turned out to be longer than expected. However, the fact that he began a throwing program by the end of last season suggests he will likely be ready for Spring Training this season, barring any setbacks. 

After a brutal MLB debut in 2023 (he gave up seven runs on six hits and a walk in an inning of work against the Guardians on June 28th), he ended up posting a respectable 4.63 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 18 appearances and 23.1 IP. He came alive at the end of the season and took on the Royals' closer role in 2023, saving four games. He also posted a 25.6% K rate, a 23.3% K-BB%, and a 2.78 FIP in 2023, indicating he was better than his ERA suggested.

McArthur was the Royals' closer for a period of time in 2024 after Will Smith struggled out of the gate in the role. He ended up saving 18 games in 57 appearances. However, his K rate dropped to 19.8%, his K-BB% fell to 14.2%, and his HR/9 rose to 1.27 (it was 0.77 in 2023). As a result, his ERA was 4.92, and he eventually ceded the closer role to Lucas Erceg after the Trade Deadline.

Like in 2023, the 28-year-old former Phillies draft pick posted a better FIP (4.17) than ERA. While strikeouts were inconsistent, he has a career CSW of 31.9% and his TJ Stats metrics were solid in 2024, despite the rough patches and high ERA.

McArthur posted a 104 overall TJ Stuff+ with his sinker (65) and curveball (70) rating as elite pitches. He also had a slightly above-average zone rate (50.2%), and solid chase (30.1%) and whiff (28.3%) rates. 

Thus, there's reason to believe that if fully healthy and in a lower-leverage role, McArthur could thrive in 2026 as a middle-innings reliever for the Royals. 

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