Alec Marsh's Tenure With Royals Ends Quietly

[Kevin O'Brien]

 

 On Friday, the Royals outrighted five pitchers off the 40-man roster: Easton McGee, Connor Seabold, Alex Lange, Mason Black, and Alec Marsh. 

 

McGee and Seabold immediately opted for free agency, which isn't surprising since they got little opportunity in Kansas City and were both acquired mid-season. Lange opted to stay in Kansas City and was outrighted to Omaha. Black was also sent to Omaha, but that was more because he didn't have enough MLB service time to opt for free agency.

The only question mark in that group initially was Marsh, who hadn't pitched since 2024 because of injuries and surgery on his right shoulder. On Saturday, KC Star Royals beat writer Jaylon Thompson reported that Marsh would opt for free agency.

 

Marsh's decision ends his tenure with the Royals, whom the righty has played his entire professional career with. Marsh showed flashes of brilliance and upside, and in 2024 he seemed on track to become a dependable arm in the Kansas City rotation for years to come. 

Unfortunately, like many talented pitchers, injuries decimated Marsh, and his professional future in general looks questionable after two lost seasons. So let's look at how Marsh's career started promising, how things changed when Matt Quatraro and Brian Sweeney came to Kansas City, and whether Marsh still has anything left in the tank to impress an interested MLB team this offseason. 

---

Marsh Showed Promise and Potential As A Prospect Out of College

The Royals selected Marsh in the 2019 MLB Draft with the 70th overall pick in the competitive round. Marsh succeeded in his final season at Arizona State, a baseball powerhouse.

In 17 games (16 starts) and 101.1 IP, Marsh posted a 3.46 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and a 2.75 K/BB ratio, striking out 99. Many scouts liked Marsh's four-pitch mix, fastball cut, and competitiveness on the mound.

Marsh dominated rookie ball in 2019 with Idaho Falls in the short-season Pioneer League. He posted a 4.05 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 25.8% K-BB% in 13 games and 33.1 IP for the Chukars. Unfortunately, he didn't pitch in the minor leagues in 2020 due to the COVID pandemic, but he got some work at the Alternate Site that season.

MLB Pipeline ranked Marsh as the No. 12 prospect in the Royals' system in 2021, but he struggled to adjust to Double-A pitching in 2022.

After posting a 4.97 ERA, 3.87 FIP, and 27.4% K-BB% in 25.1 IP with the Naturals in 2021, his ERA jumped to 7.32 in 114.1 IP. While he still struck out guys in bunches (27.4% K%), he struggled with the long ball, as shown by a 20.6% HR/FB% allowed. As a result, many experts and Royals fans wondered whether he had the "stamina" to start at the MLB level. 

Marsh showed progress in Northwest Arkansas and the Minors in general in 2023.

In 47.1 IP with the Naturals, he posted a 5.32 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, which aren't great on the surface. However, his 4.08 FIP was more impressive, and he lowered his HR/FB% to 10%. He also did much better in a promotion to Omaha, posting a 2.40 ERA, 3.51 FIP, and 18.2% K-BB% in 15 IP.

Because of this strong Triple-A showing, Marsh earned a promotion to Kansas City on June 30th.

---

Rough Rookie Debut With Royals, But Solid Sophomore Season

As the Royals went through a rebuilding season under first-year manager Quatraro, Marsh got time in the Kansas City rotation and bullpen. He made 17 appearances (8 starts) and pitched 74.1 innings in 2023. Unfortunately, his first exposure to Major League hitters yielded mixed results.

The former Sun Devil posted a 5.69 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 5.70 FIP, and 13.5% K-BB%. Home runs plagued him, as he gave up an HR/FB% of 18.4%. Only Josh Taylor, Jonathan Heasley, and Tucker Davidson posted higher marks in that category that season. 

However, despite the mediocre surface-level numbers, Marsh showed promise in many of his Stacast categories, especially K%, Swinging Strike%, and CSW%. 

With a six-pitch mix that included three above-average offerings, the Royals kept him in the rotation in 2024 as long as he made adjustments. Under Sweeney and assistant pitching coach Zach Bove, Marsh made the right adjustments and thrived during the Royals' 86-76 season, especially early in the year.

In his first nine starts and 50 IP, Marsh posted a 3.24 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 1.06 WHIP, and 14.4% K-BB%. He regressed over the rest of the season, with his ERA rising to 4.53 in 26 games (25 starts) and 129 IP. That said, he showed positive progress over a larger sample of innings, with his strikeout, whiff, and CSW numbers remaining solid despite the issues with barrel and hard-hit rates allowed.

The Royals had Marsh throw a little more horizontally in 2024, which explained the improvement. His average arm angle went from 37 degrees in 2023 to 32 degrees in 2024. While his whiff and chase rates fell, his TJ Stuff+, xwOBACON, and zone rate improved, as shown in the TJ Stuff+ comparison below.

Marsh became less of a strikeout artist in 2024 and more of a complete pitcher, which is what the Royals needed at the bottom of the rotation during their playoff season.

---

Shoulder Injuries Decimate Marsh's 2025 and 2026 Seasons

Marsh was durable in 2023 and 2024, aside from a short IL stint for a minor elbow contusion from a comebacker against the Blue Jays on April 24th. Unfortunately, the injuries piled up in 2025, starting as early as Spring Training.

He experienced shoulder tightness early in Spring Workouts, which delayed his start. When he returned, he developed right shoulder impingement, and the Royals placed him on the 60-Day IL on March 24th, further delaying his season start.

After being put on the IL, Marsh went through a merry-go-round of rehab that proved unsuccessful. He suffered multiple setbacks in extended Spring Training and was eventually shut down from throwing in early July. Marsh received cortisone shots in late July, but it seemed to make no difference, and he ended up being shut down for the remainder of the year. 

In early November, Marsh ended up getting labrum repair surgery after it was deemed that conservative treatment was not enough.

 

That decision also effectively ended his 2026 season due to the long rehab process associated with such surgeries. 

While he recovered from shoulder surgery, Marsh made little progress in 2026. Rehabs from such surgeries are grueling, and the Royals were pretty silent about Marsh's progress throughout the season. That contrasted with other pitchers who missed considerable time, such as James McArthur, who also missed all of 2025 and 2026 due to surgery. McArthur ended up pitching in Double-A and suited up for the Royals in the series finale. 

---

Why the Royals Let Marsh Go and What He Could Offer 

After two missed seasons and radio silence about his rehab, the Royals likely felt Marsh was too big a risk to bring back for 2027. Expectations are higher in 2027 after a disappointing 2026 campaign, and injuries to Cole Ragans, Luinder Avila, Ryan Bergert, and Stephen Kolek last season already gutted the pitching depth. They can't afford to have a questionable Marsh sit on the 40-man roster when they need a pitcher who can contribute at the MLB level immediately.

Even though Marsh has Minor League options and wouldn't be expensive (he likely would've commanded under $1 million in arbitration), Kansas City decided to let him go and find other options in his place, internally or externally via free agency or trade.

If healthy, the former Arizona State product could be a decent reliever. That's why the Royals held onto him for so long, even though he didn't pitch at all in the past two seasons. 

Before his injury, Marsh's pitch quality was great, with five pitches earning TJ Stuff+ marks of 100 or higher in 2024. His curveball was a nasty offering that generated a 32.7% chase rate and could be a put-away pitch in more limited innings. Below is an example of his curve not only inducing Baltimore's Gunnar Henderson to chase, but also to strike out.

 

To be honest, if healthy, Marsh was worth bringing back, despite the layoff. His stuff and profile are intriguing, especially in a relief role. Given the Royals' bullpen struggles last year (29th in bullpen ERA and 30th in bullpen WHIP), Marsh could've been a cheap internal option who could've developed into a higher-leverage option with more experience.

That said, I don't think Marsh has been healthy for a while, and his outlook for 2027 probably wasn't optimistic either. With a new training staff coming to Kansas City and a questionable rehab history, Marsh would probably be better off starting anew with a different organization, should he get that opportunity. 

Will he get the opportunity, however? That remains to be seen, and his progress this winter could determine whether he lands a spot on a Spring Training roster in February (if we start on time, of course). 

For now, Marsh will simply be an intriguing former Royals story who had the potential to be something special in the long term, but injuries robbed him of that opportunity. 

  

 

Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

View full article