Arbitrary Thoughts: Lucas Erceg's Rough Season Shouldn't End His Royals Tenure

Lucas Erceg - Relief Pitcher

Age on 2027 Opening Day: 31
Service Time: 3.125

2024 Salary: $750,000
2025 Salary: $776,750
2026 Salary: $803,500
2027 MLB Trade Rumors Estimate: $2,300,000

Erceg Background

Lucas Erceg was drafted 46th overall by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 2016 MLB Draft. After making his major league debut with the Oakland Athletics in 2023, Erceg was traded to Kansas City at the 2024 trade deadline in exchange for a trio of prospects. Erceg immediately became a valuable piece of the Royals bullpen, posting a 2.88 ERA and a 1.17 FIP across 25 innings while striking out 31 batters following the trade. He followed that up with another strong season in 2025, recording a 2.64 ERA across 61 1/3 innings.

However, there were some warning signs beneath the surface. Erceg's strikeout rate dropped from 28.5% in 2024 to 19.3% in 2025, and that trend continued into 2026. He finished this past season in the third percentile for both strikeout and walk rates, while his ERA ballooned to 5.59. After posting 1.2 WAR and 1.5 WAR in 2024 and 2025, respectively, Erceg finished 2026 at -0.7 WAR. He was even optioned to Triple-A Omaha because of his poor performance, rather than an injury, although he did deal with a forearm strain in September.

That makes this an interesting decision for Kansas City. Erceg has been one of the team's more reliable late-inning arms over the past two seasons, but his 2026 performance raises legitimate questions about whether he can return to that form. This will also be his first year of arbitration eligibility, giving the Royals a decision to make on his future.

2026 Stats: 48 1/3 IP, 13 SV, 5.59 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 14.9% K, 14.0% BB, 5.40 FIP

Royals Relief Pitcher Depth

• 40-man roster: Steven Cruz, Jose Cuas, Connor Thomas, Connor Seabold, Carlos Duran, Beck Way, Nolan Hoffman, Spencer Nivens, Easton McGee
• Arbitration Eligible: Nick Mears, Alex Lange, Daniel Lynch IV, James McArthur, Lucas Erceg, Anthony Gose
• 2027 Club Option: Carlos Estévez
• Triple-A: Tyler Guerrero, Augusto Mendieta, Shane Panzini, Luke Little, Ben Sears, Chazz Martinez, Brandon Johnson, Oscar Rayo

Why the Royals Should Offer Him Arbitration

Despite a horrid 2026 campaign, there's still a strong track record for Erceg to fall back on. He posted a 121 ERA+ in 2024 before following it up with a 159 mark in 2025. Those are the kinds of numbers that make it difficult to completely give up on a pitcher after one disappointing season. And while the results were certainly ugly this year, there are still some encouraging signs in his underlying numbers.

Erceg comes with a five-pitch mix, which allows him to attack hitters in a variety of ways. He's particularly effective at generating soft contact, and even with his struggles this season, his barrel rate and average exit velocity both ranked in the 91st percentile or higher. His ground-ball rate also ranked in the 88th percentile, while his hard-hit rate remained well above league average.

Three of his five pitches graded out as above league average according to Stuff+. Even the two that didn't, his four-seam fastball and changeup, generate strong arm-side run. There's enough here to believe Erceg can still be an effective major league reliever, even if the results didn't show it in 2026. He's also been a reliable late-inning option for the Royals for most of his Kansas City tenure. Even in a season where he struggled enough to be sent to Triple-A, Erceg still led the team with 13 saves.

For $2.3 million, there are certainly cheaper bullpen arms available. However, there's also a very reasonable case to be made that Erceg bounces back in 2027. With his track record and the quality of contact he's continued to allow, the Royals could be getting a quality late-inning reliever at a relatively affordable price.

Why the Royals Should Non-Tender Him

Of course, it's difficult to overlook Erceg's 2026 results. A 5.59 ERA from a late-inning reliever is unplayable, especially for a team that needs to improve its bullpen heading into next season.

And it's not as though his underlying numbers suggest he was simply the victim of bad luck. Erceg finished with a 5.40 FIP and a 4.66 expected ERA, both of which indicate that he was far from the pitcher Kansas City saw in 2024 and 2025.

He finished the season with just two more strikeouts than walks, which is a major problem for a reliever expected to handle high-leverage situations. A 14.9% strikeout rate and a 14.0% walk rate leave very little margin for error, particularly when runners are already on base.

Erceg didn't generate enough whiffs, struggled to get hitters to chase pitches outside the strike zone, and simply wasn't an effective pitcher for much of the season. That's a difficult way to enter your first year of arbitration eligibility, and it could leave a sour taste in the mouths of the people making the Royals' roster decisions.

Kansas City also has plenty of other decisions to make this offseason. With multiple arbitration-eligible relievers and several potential additions needed for the bullpen, the Royals may decide that Erceg's salary is better spent elsewhere.

If they believe his decline is more than a one-year blip, non-tendering him would give them another opportunity to reshape a bullpen that needs significant improvement.

Prediction: The Royals Keep Erceg

While 2026 was a year to forget for Erceg, I believe there's enough here to suggest it was more of a fluke than a permanent decline. His stuff was more or less average overall, but his Location+ was actually above league average. That combination realistically shouldn't produce the results he had this season, which makes it worth investigating what went wrong before moving on from him entirely.

There's also no shortage of other spots to fill in the Royals bullpen. Kansas City has several arbitration decisions to make this winter, and there are likely to be other non-tender candidates ahead of Erceg. The team won't be able to replace every underperforming reliever in one offseason, so keeping a pitcher with his track record makes some sense. That doesn't mean Erceg should be guaranteed a late-inning role next season. He'll need to show significant improvement this offseason and during spring training to prove that 2026 was an outlier rather than the beginning of a more concerning trend.

Still, I don't believe the pitcher we saw in 2024 and 2025 has simply disappeared. Erceg has already demonstrated that he can be a reliable late-inning arm, and his ability to limit hard contact gives him a foundation to build on. For an estimated $2.3 million, I'd be willing to take the chance on him returning to that form in 2027. The Royals have plenty of work to do in their bullpen, but non-tendering Erceg would mean giving up on a pitcher who still has a reasonable path back to being an important piece of the relief corps.

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