How Does Nick Loftin Fit With This Royals Roster in 2027?

[Kevin O'Brien]

Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

 

Nick Loftin has emerged as one of the key Royals' players during a rough 2026 season. 

After failing to accumulate more than 188 plate appearances in a season from 2022 to 2024, the 2020 compensation round pick (No. 30 overall) has set career highs in games played as well as plate appearances. In that extended sample, Loftin has made the most of his opportunity, with a 98 wRC+, .314 wOBA, and 1.3 fWAR in 105 games and 381 plate appearances with the Royals this season. 

In terms of his Statcast percentile profile, power remains an issue for Loftin. However, he is a disciplined hitter, and his ability to make contact and avoid chasing has helped the Royals get competitive at-bats at the bottom of the order this season. 

Loftin has mostly gotten this opportunity due to injuries to Opening Day third baseman Maikel Garcia. The 2025 All-Star and Gold Glove winner has been limited to 73 games and 309 plate appearances this year. In that sample, he produced a 97 wRC+, .313 wOBA, and 1.7 fWAR. While that's not bad, especially when considering the injuries, those numbers are down from the 121 wRC+, .347 wOBA, and 5.7 fWAR he produced a season ago. 

Additionally, Garcia has also regressed in Statcast percentiles from 2025, as shown in the comparison below via TJ Stats. 

Garcia is still not chasing or whiffing, and he's doing a better job of pulling the ball in the air this season. However, his hard-hit metrics and exit velocity rates are down, which has also led to a regression in his wOBA and xwOBA. While a healthy Garcia should see a bounce-back in 2027, his health and his decline this year have some Royals fans wondering if 2025 was a peak for him rather than a sign of things to come.

Thus, should Loftin cut into Garcia's playing time in 2027? Or would Loftin be better served as a rotating utility player who can settle into multiple positions in the infield and outfield?

Unfortunately, the defensive data paints a more complicated picture with Loftin's defensive ability and outlook for next season and beyond.

---

Loftin Has Been Excellent at Third Base This Year

One of the biggest surprises with Loftin has been his strong hot corner defense this season. 

Traditionally, Loftin has profiled well at 3B, but it didn't stand out. Here's a look at Loftin's defensive Outs Above Average (OAA) breakdown at different positions since 2024.

• 2024: 3B (+2 OAA), 2B (+2 OAA), 1B (-1 OAA).
• 2025: 3B (+2 OAA), 2B (+1 OAA), 1B (+1 OAA). 
• 2026: 3B (+6 OAA), RF/SS/1B (0 OAA), LF (-1 OAA), 2B (-6 OAA). 

It's interesting to see that not only has Loftin significantly improved at third base this season, but he has seriously regressed in his defensive production at the keystone as well. 

His success-rate data shows a similar trend: Loftin has a better-than-expected success rate at 3B, SS, and RF, but a lower-than-expected rate at 2B, LF, and 1B this year. 

The box plot data also confirms this success rate and OAA trend, with most of Loftin's best defensive work coming on plays where he's going to third base foul line. 

An example of this improvement was today's key double play in the ninth inning, which kept the game tied with no outs and runners on the corners. Loftin made a diving play at third and somehow was able to double off Arizona's Ketel Marte at third in the process. It was a play not many at the hot corner could make.

However, while Loftin has been good, Garcia has been just as good at third base defensively this year, even though Garcia has played fewer games than Loftin (32 fewer, to be exact). Garcia is only one out behind Loftin in terms of OAA this year, even though Loftin has been much healthier and has seen more time at third base than Garcia. 

Now, Garcia and Loftin do different things well at the hot corner. 

Garcia is a much better defender on plays coming in, while Loftin is much better on plays toward his right and the third-base foul line side. Loftin is also better on plays going to his left and back. 

Still, the Venezuelan infielder has better arm strength than Loftin, and that may give him an advantage over the Baylor product when both are fully healthy. Garcia's arm strength ranks in the 74th percentile, with an average throw of 88 MPH. Loftin, on the other hand, ranks in the 54th percentile with an average throwing speed of 85.2 MPH. The play on June 7th in Minneapolis against the Twins below also shows Garcia's arm advantage.

Now, the bat may be what ultimately determines playing time at third base. Even though he was very good last year, Garcia has seen some regression with the bat. However, despite that regression, Loftin hasn't been much better in extended playing time this season. His wRC+ and wOBA are pretty much the same as Garcia's this year, and Loftin doesn't have the injury excuse to lean on like Garcia. 

If fully healthy, Garcia is not just a slightly better defensive option at third, but also likely would be a better offensive one than Loftin as well, especially if his power returns to 2025 levels next year. 

---

Loftin's Defense at Other Positions is Lackluster

While Loftin has been a strong defender at third, the data is less kind to him at other positions.

The main position Loftin has played beyond 3B this year is 2B, which makes sense on paper. Michael Massey is left-handed, and it would make sense for manager Matt Quatraro to sit Massey against lefties while starting Loftin at the keystone in Massey's place. However, Massey has actually been decent this year against lefties (.317 average and .853 OPS in 82 PA against LHP), and his defense is a MASSIVE upgrade over Loftin.

Here's what 2B defense has been like for the Royals this year individually, as ranked by OAA.

Not only has Massey been the Royals' best defender at second base by a wide margin (he's the only Royals player with a positive OAA at second), but he's been a significantly better option than Loftin.

At second base this year, Massey has been 16 outs and 12 runs better than Loftin at second base. Now, that's hard to imagine, especially since Loftin profiles as a decent athlete. However, when it comes to instincts and ability, the Royals are not just better with Massey at second, but they actually hurt themselves defensively by a massive margin when they decide to slot Loftin in at second base.

The Royals are a smart organization that pays attention to data like this. Thus, it's not a surprise that the Royals have leaned on Massey at second, even when they are facing lefties, and even when Massey isn't in the lineup. Quatraro has opted for other options at second, including Tyler Tolbert, who's fine, but not a player who has played major innings at second in his Major or Minor League career. 

The lack of ability to play second base hurts Loftin's overall value for next season. It not only limits his infield playing time, but also shows Loftin isn't very adaptable defensively.  

If Loftin can't handle second base as a natural infielder, it seems unlikely that he'll be able to handle time at positions in the outfield, where he's played sparingly this season. 

---

What's Loftin's Outlook for Next Year?

The Royals are invested in Garcia for the long term. They signed him to a five-year extension last winter, and he's under team control until 2030.

 

 

So while Loftin has been a nice surprise, he hasn't been good enough to supplant Garcia, especially given the financial commitment the team made to Garcia last year. Furthermore, Garcia, like Loftin, has shown that his defense worsens when he moves around the field. 

However, Kansas City still needs to find Loftin a role in 2027. He will still be in pre-arbitration next year, which means he will be cheap. Furthermore, he proved this year that he can be a key piece for this Royals team, boosting the lineup when he's locked in and seeing the ball well. His home run from the Marlins series shows that he has the hitting profile to succeed somewhat at Kauffman Stadium. 

 

The big issue with Loftin is where he should play defensively. He can't play third base every day, and the Royals shouldn't move Garcia to make room for Loftin. So he needs to find another position, even if it's not a regular role.

It would benefit Loftin if he could become a better defensive outfielder in 2027. Mostly because I don't think Isaac Collins should be getting that much more playing time in 2027. 

Here's how the two players compare this year, before today's game, via Fangraphs:

• Collins (470 PA): .302 wOBA, .296 xwOBA, 89 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR.
• Loftin (376 PA): .318 wOBA, .297 xwOBA, 101 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR. 

Not only is Loftin hitting better than Collins, but he's also better at baserunning and fielding value than the former Brewer as well. Collins also strikes out more (22.1% to Loftin's 16.5%) and hits for less power (.117 ISO to Loftin's .148 ISO). 

Neither will hit arbitration until 2028, and both have Minor League options remaining (though Collins has all three while Loftin has just one). That said, the Royals may be better off targeting a left-handed left fielder this offseason and having him platoon with Loftin than keeping Collins around in 2027. The Royals don't have to trade or non-tender Collins, but just keep him in Triple-A and move him up if an injury befalls someone in the outfield. 

Nonetheless, Loftin has proven that he deserves to be a part of the Royals' Opening Day roster in 2027.

He just needs to improve this offseason defensively to solidify his spot.  

 

View full article