It’s Time For The Royals To Consider A Jac Caglianone Extension

[Philip Ruo]

Image courtesy of Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Jac Caglianone is in the midst of his breakout season for the Royals. 2025 was not the start that the Royals imagined when they called up the 2024 first-round draft pick. In his rookie campaign, he slashed .157/.237/.295 with a 47 wRC+ and a -1.6 fWAR. This season, he is much improved to a slash line of .276/.328/.491 with a 124 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR. 

Since June 1st, he has taken his performance to the next level, where the 23-year-old ranks 10th among all qualified hitters with a 149 wRC+ and a slash line of .305/.347/.566. Yirsandy Rodríguez posted an excellent breakdown analyzing Caglianone’s performances from 2026, the first half of 2026, and the second half of 2026. Considering his new level of production, The Royals may now have enough information to believe that Caglianone will continue to be a threat in the middle of the lineup for years to come..

The Royals have been aggressive lately in signing their young stars to contract extensions. There are currently three recent examples of how the Royals could construct an extension.

Cole Ragans | 3 years - $13,250,000

Before the 2025 season, the Royals rewarded Ragans with a contract extension following his first full season in Kansas City, where he finished fourth in American League Cy Young voting with a 3.14 ERA over 186 ⅓ innings. 

This type of extension is rather short compared to most contract extensions. With only three years of guaranteed money, Ragans will still be eligible for one year of arbitration before becoming a free agent in 2029. This type of extension is seen as more of a compromise, where Ragans is rewarded with near-top-of-the-market guaranteed salaries for those three years but is unable to earn a higher payout in arbitration if he were to continue his Cy Young trajectory. Unless the Royals expect Caglianone to command high arbitration numbers with top finishes in MVP voting, this path is less likely.

Vinnie Pasquantino signed a similar extension this past offseason, avoiding his first two years of arbitration with a guaranteed contract and would still be eligible for his final year of arbitration before hitting free agency in 2029. This extension was perhaps a slightly different case, since it was signed during a period when Pasquantino and the Royals could not agree on a contract and were headed to arbitration.

Maikel Garcia | 5 years - $57,500,000

The Royals inked Garcia to this extension this past offseason after his breakout season. In 2025 Garcia slashed .286/.351/.449 with a 121 wRC+ and 5.7 fWAR. He also earned his first All-Star selection, won the Gold Glove at third base, and finished 14th in AL MVP voting. 

Garcia’s contract extension is more of the prototypical extension where the team “buys out” the player's first year of free agency in exchange for the increase in guaranteed money well above the expected value for a player going through arbitration. Garcia will also hit free agency at an age where he could still earn a good contract after this one expires. Garcia would become a free agent going into his age-31 season (or age-32 season if the Royals pick up his club option for 2031).

Every pre-arbitration contract extension signed this season has followed a similar model, in which the player would finish their contract at or before 30 years old. 

Bobby Witt Jr. | 11 years - $288,777,777

Witt signed his extension after his second season in the majors. There are only a few players who have signed pre-arbitration deals that would take the player through their early 30s. Those players are Fernando Tatis Jr., Julio Rodriguez, and a player from the Rays who should remain nameless. 

The only players who command this type of extension are players who have already proven they can compete at an MVP-caliber level. Rodriguez signed his deal after winning Rookie of the Year, and Tatis signed after finishing fourth in NL MVP voting at 21 years old. Witt was also coming off a season where he finished seventh in MVP voting. The players also play premium defensive positions. Witt and Tatis (at the time) play shortstop, and Rodriguez plays center field. With Caglianone not yet being able to display the same caliber of production at less important positions, it is unlikely that he will command this type of extension if he gets one.

What does this all mean going forward?

The Royals should strongly consider locking down Caglianone long-term. With Garcia and Witt entering their prime years, adding Caglianone to that mix could solidify the heart of the Kansas City lineup for many years to come. 

Pasquantino’s future also could play a role in extension talks. If he does not factor into the Royals’ plans, Caglianone could shift back to his more-natural position at first base. First basemen are typically in lower demand because it is a less valuable position. Caglianone will want to be paid like an outfielder, but the Royals could prefer to value him as a first baseman. 

If the Royals do intend to secure Caglianone long-term, a deal would likely fall into a deal similar to Garcia’s with a few more years since Caglianone is earlier in his career. A seven-year contract would take away two years of free agency, end after his age-30 season, and also remove two seasons where he would be making the league-minimum salary. 

A structure that makes sense could be similar to Tyler Soderstrom’s contract, which was for seven years and $86 million with a $27 million club option for the eighth season. Soderstrom has seen a similar path as Caglianone; both were drafted out of high school and struggled in their first season in the majors. Soderstrom was also at the same age when he signed his extension, entering his age-24 season. With Soderstrom playing first base, his valuation could work as a baseline for Caglianone’s expected average annual value.

Other Complicating Factors

The Royals could choose to remain conservative with any extension talks. Witt has opt-outs that begin following the 2030 season, and if the Royals do not pick up the club option for Garcia, his contract also ends in 2031. With Caglianone not set to become a free agent in 2032, the Royals could look at the next four seasons as their window to compete and not be as interested in securing Caglianone for the years to follow. 

The impending lockout is also a wrinkle to consider. With the CBA expiring in December this year, the landscape for contracts in the coming seasons remains uncertain. The Royals may intend to hold off on extensions until there is more clarity for future payroll structures. 

The Royals and Caglianone have the potential to secure the heart of the lineup for years to come and secure the core of the franchise. Will the Royals be ambitious enough to make the deal, or will the uncertain future result in hesitancy to commit to increasing payroll? Right now could be the perfect time to sign an extension since it is still to be determined how valuable Caglianone will be in the future. As a small market team, continued improvements from Caglianone could take him out of their price range. With the team rarely willing to compete for top free agents, the Royals should secure their best players before they’re gone

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[Curtis Tucker]

Yes, I agree 100%  Give Jac a a 10 year contract like Bobby Whitt Jr.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 minutes ago, Curtis Tucker said:

Yes, I agree 100%  Give Jac a a 10 year contract like Bobby Whitt Jr.  

Welcome to Royals Keep! I don't think I'd want Cags for ten years, but I'd certainly be game for seven-ish.