Will Carson Roccaforte Get His Shot With the Royals This Season?

[Kevin O'Brien]

Image courtesy of Allan Henry-Imagn Images

 

The Royals are 24-38 as of Thursday and may be in "evaluation" mode for the remainder of the 2026 season. That's not exactly what fans envisioned back in Spring Training, but with 6.5% odds to make the postseason, according to Fangraphs, they may not have much of a choice. 

With next year and beyond as the focus for this team, GM JJ Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro need to identify and promote players with long-term potential for the Royals. One player with that potential is outfielder Carson Roccaforte, who's currently in Double-A Northwest Arkansas.

 

Roccaforte is the No. 10 prospect in our most updated Top 20 rankings at Royals Keep. In 53 games and 245 plate appearances with the Naturals this year, the 24-year-old outfielder is slashing .250/.340/.510 with an .850 OPS. He also has 13 home runs, 40 runs scored, 36 RBI, 10 stolen bases, and a TJ Bat+ of 126. 

Thus, the numbers have been solid in Double-A, and at the very least, a promotion to Triple-A Omaha should be coming soon for the outfielder prospect. However, does he merit a promotion to the Majors in August and September after the Trade Deadline? If so, what would need to happen, and what would need to improve in his game for him to be a regular at the Major League level?

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Roccaforte Has the Tools to Be a Successful MLB Outfielder

Roccaforte was drafted 66th overall in the Competitive B Round of the 2023 MLB Draft by the University of Louisiana Lafayette.

In his final season with the Ragin' Cajuns, he slashed .318/.426/.538 with a .964 OPS in 289 plate appearances. He also hit eight home runs, scored 64 runs, collected 55 RBI, and stole bases. His numbers were much better in 2022 with Lafayette, as he hit 16 home runs, stole 25 bases, and posted a 1.107 OPS in 256 plate appearances. However, Roccaforte finished 2023 strong and had really boosted his draft stock leading up to the July MLB Draft.

 

In addition to solid offensive and defensive tools, the Lafayette product stood out because of his strong discipline at the plate. In his final season with the Ragin' Cajuns, he posted a 0.67 BB/K ratio. Even if Roccaforte didn't hit for a high average, he at the very least would be a player who could consistently post decent to strong OBP marks due to that plate discipline and ability to draw a walk.

Roccaforte signed quickly after being drafted and ended up playing in 27 games with the Low-A Columbia Fireflies in 2023. In that 122 plate-appearance sample, he slashed .257/.377/.356 with a .733 OPS and 107 TJ Bat+. While he didn't hit for a high average or a lot of power (0.099 ISO), he did draw a lot of walks, as evidenced by his 15.6% BB%.

As expected, the Royals promoted Roccaforte to High-A Quad Cities in 2024. Unfortunately, his first full MiLB season didn't go as planned offensively.

In 122 games and 535 plate appearances, Roccaforte slashed .208/.293/.342 with a .635 OPS and 87 TJ Bat+. He struck out 26% of the time, hit 10 home runs, scored 59 runs, and collected 62 RBI. What stood out the most from Roccaforte in his first full Minor League season was the baserunning prowess (34 stolen bases) and defense. He ended up winning the Frank White Award that season, which goes to the best defensive player in the Royals' minor league system.

 

Despite the defensive accolades, Roccaforte's prospect status declined heavily, and he was seen as a fringe Top-30 prospect going into 2025. While he maintained his defensive performance (he won the Frank White Award again in 2025), the outfielder also dramatically improved his offensive production.

Roccaforte started in High-A ball but was later promoted to Northwest Arkansas. He thrived at both levels of play last season.

In 127 games and 551 plate appearances at both levels combined, he slashed .258/.373/.470 with an .843 OPS. He hit 18 home runs, scored 81 runs, collected 74 RBI, and stole 43 bases. He also posted a 135 TJ Bat+ in Quad Cities and 140 TJ Bat+ in Northwest Arkansas. Safe to say, the outfielder was effective in nearly all offensive areas of his game a season ago.

 

The only blemish on Roccaforte's profile from a year ago is his strikeout rate. While he walked 14.9% of the time, he also struck out 29.4% of the time as well. His high number of swing-and-misses is a big reason why he didn't climb higher in many top Royals prospects lists this past offseason, including ours at Royals Keep (he started the year at No. 16). 

This year, Roccaforte has done more of the same, repeating Northwest Arkansas.

In 53 games and 245 plate appearances, he's slashing .250/.340/.510 with an .850 OPS. He has also hit 13 home runs, scored 40 runs, collected 36 RBI, stolen 10 bases, and posted a 126 TJ Bat+. The power has seen a boost, as his .260 ISO would be a career-high in a season. However, his 34.9% K% would also be a career high, and his whiff metrics aren't much better, as illustrated by his Statcast percentiles via TJ Stats.

In addition to a K% in the 2nd percentile, he has a 9th-percentile whiff rate and a 13th-percentile Z-Contact%. That said, despite these issues, his O-Swing% (chase) ranks in the 63rd percentile, and his BB% ranks in the 54th percentile. Thus, while the strikeouts and whiffs aren't encouraging, his lack of chase at least makes up for those issues somewhat.

Roccaforte may never be a high-average hitter at the MLB level due to these contact issues. However, if he can carry the power, plate discipline, and pull ability to Omaha and, eventually, Kansas City, he could find success despite those obvious drawbacks. His defense and baserunning tools, as well, would help the Royals be more patient with him, much like Kyle Isbel early in his MLB career.

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Will the Royals Deal Isbel to Clear a Spot for Roccaforte?

Speaking of Isbel, the Royals center fielder has a murky future in Kansas City beyond 2026.

Next year, Isbel will be 30, and he will also be entering his final season of arbitration. The former UNLV product has demonstrated excellent defense with the Royals, earning a Gold Glove finalist nomination last season. However, the offense hasn't quite been there for a regular player.

This season, Isbel is slashing .254/.293/.361 with a .654 OPS in 171 plate appearances. His 73 TJ Bat+ is down not just from last year (77) but from 2024 as well (79). Furthermore, the Statcast percentiles haven't been all that great this season, especially in the exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit categories.

The good thing is that Isbel doesn't whiff a lot and makes a lot of contact. Unfortunately, those are the only Statcast categories he profiled as above average, according to TJ Stats.

The Royals may be able to get a decent package for Isbel, who has value as a defensive-first fourth outfielder to many opposing teams. It's possible that Kansas City could receive a return similar to what they received from the San Diego Padres in the Freddy Fermin trade. The defensive-oriented backup catcher was traded for Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek at last year's Trade Deadline. Considering Kolek's early success and Bergert's upside, it's safe to say that the deal was a win for the Royals.

Trading Isbel could net them a similar return and open a 40-man roster spot for Roccaforte.

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Roccaforte Needs to Cut Down the Whiffs to Hold Off Rave

There aren't many options on the 40-man roster to replace Isbel on the active roster. The only real option who can play center field is John Rave, who made his debut in Kansas City last year and posted a 67 TJ Bat+ in 175 plate appearances. Based on that sample, it's not surprising that Rave has primarily stayed down in Omaha this season.

With the Storm Chasers, Rave has been looking effective at the plate.

In 243 plate appearances, the 28-year-old outfielder is slashing .269/.385/.477 with an .862 OPS and 113 TJ Bat+. He also has nine home runs, 37 runs scored, 30 RBI, and 14 stolen bases. Like Roccaforte, the former NC State product can draw a walk, but he chases more than Roccaforte and has questionable exit velocity, hard-hit metrics, and launch-angle data.

Rave may be on the 40-man roster already, but Roccaforte has the higher ceiling, despite his whiff issues. Thus, if Roccaforte can stabilize those strikeout and whiff rates in Triple-A, that would go a long way for Roccaforte's chances to make the MLB roster late this summer

Roccaforte didn't have a tremendous Spring Training sample in Arizona this past spring. He only had 23 plate appearances, and his slash line was .158/.304/.263 with a .567 OPS. However, while the wOBA, xwOBA, and barrel rate percentiles were low, everything else was stellar, based on his TJ Statcast percentiles summary.

With a larger sample, Roccaforte's Cactus League metrics would likely have been better than what they were, especially when taking a glance at his summary above. There were a lot of promising trends in Surprise, especially in the areas of whiff%  &9th percentile) and z-contact% (64th percentile). 

It will be interesting to see what Roccaforte can do to improve his contact tool this season and beyond. He doesn't need to be a sub-20% K% guy by any means. However, if he can keep his K% in the 25-27% range and his walk rate in the 11-13% range? Well, that could be the profile of a successful regular outfielder, especially if he's demonstrating 15-20 HR per year power. 

 

Granted, we still have to see what Roccaforte will do in a promotion to Omaha. If he struggles or stagnates in Triple-A, he may not be added to the 40-man roster this offseason, let alone during the 2026 season. 

However, if Roccaforte transitions this Double-A offensive success to Triple-A? 

Well, Royals fans may be seeing Roccaforte in center field at Kauffman Stadium in late August or early September this year. 

 

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