What's Up With Isaac Collins’ Uneven Start In Kansas City?

[Philip Ruo]

Image courtesy of © Mady Mertens-Imagn Images

How has the outfield addition fared in his first season in Kansas City so far?

Isaac Collins’s start to 2026 has looked very different from his 2025 performance. So far in 2026, Collins has a slash line of .171/.310/.286 with an 83 wRC+, a decline from his 2025 marks of .263/.368/.323 with a 122 wRC+.

In 2025, Collins graded in the 62nd percentile in batting run value and is currently in the 53rd percentile for 2026. However, the route to getting that value has been different this year compared to last season. Collins already has three barrels in 21 batted balls, only a couple of weeks into 2026. In 2025, Collins only barreled the ball 14 times all season. Does this suggest that Collins is finding his power swing in Kansas City?

Despite the increase in barrel rate, Collins has seen declines in hard-hit rate, launch angle sweet-spot rate, and average exit velocity. These trends suggest his overall power profile may not be improving as much as the barrel rate alone indicates.

It is important to call out that the Royals likely did not acquire Collins for his power hitting. They got him for his plate discipline and his on-base ability. 

In 2025, Collins boasted an xwOBA of .322 and showed elite plate discipline with a chase rate of 18.4% (98th percentile) and a walk rate of 12.9% (90th percentile). He also graded above average in whiff and strikeout rates.

However, in 2026, Collins has been less consistent at the plate. While his walk rate has increased slightly to 14.3%, his chase rate has also risen to 19.6%. More concerning, his whiff and strikeout rates have jumped significantly from 22.5% and 21.1% to 30.9% and 33.3%, respectively. These changes have negatively impacted his on-base profile, reflected in a drop to a .259 xwOBA.

In light of his start, what do his other metrics show about the outlook for the rest of the season? 

One notable trend is that Collins’s results have slightly outperformed his expected metrics. 

Metric	Actual	Expected
wOBA	.288	.259
AVG	.143	.171
SLG	.286	.253

If Collins is hitting below average in many categories, then why is his batting run value in the 53rd percentile?

According to Baseball Savant, “Every pitch is assigned a run value based on its outcome (ball, strike, home run, etc.). The sum of all of a player's contributions across a season… measures his overall batting or pitching run value. A positive value represents runs created for hitters, and runs prevented for pitchers.”

These run values are grouped into pitch locations: heart, shadow, chase, and waste. Collins so far has a positive batting run value in the chase and waste zones, meaning that his plate discipline has positively contributed to the Royals' run production, and it has offset his negative value in the heart and shadow zones. 

Zone	Run Value
Heart	-1
Shadow	-2
Chase	2
Waste	1

It is worth noting that only the elite hitters register positive values in the heart and shadow zones; only three batters had positive run values in both zones in 2025.

Another positive sign is that Collins has increased his bat speed from 72.7 mph in 2025 to 73.6 mph in 2026. While bat speed itself is not necessarily indicative of positive production, increased bat speed can contribute to faster exit velocity and more power potential.

Collins has also been pulling the ball in the air more often in 2026. His pull air rate has increased to 19.1% in 2026. Pulling the ball in the air greatly increases the chances of home runs, especially when paired with a high barrel rate. If Collins can continue his increase in barrel and pull air rates, his home run and power potential will increase in 2026.

Conclusion

Isaac Collins’s profile is still the same in 2026 as it was in 2025. He still has the ability to draw walks and avoid chasing balls out of the zone, but his contact and strikeout rates have trended in the wrong direction to start the season.

His hard contact has been “feast or famine” with a decrease in hard hit rate and average exit velocity despite barreling the ball at a much larger rate. 

While his metrics show that he has over-achieving expectations, Collins has shown decent signs of overall run value at the plate. There are signs of growth in power potential, but also clear areas of concern in contact ability.

There is still plenty of time for Collins to fully hit his stride in 2026. With a losing record so far, the Royals will need his on-base skills to improve sooner rather than later.

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